Turkish Stock Research Articles

Testing BIST for Equity Return Anomalies using ARDL Model

Purpose – This study analyzes the Borsa Istanbul against equity return anomalies. With this purpose, the role of key financial stability indicators on long and short-term volatility movements in Borsa Istanbul has been tested. Design/methodology/approach – The model used in the study attempts to explain the volatility in stock prices using Return on Equity, Equity Ratio, and Net forex position over net income. Zivot Andrews and ARDL bounds tests have been conducted on the series and cointegration relationships between all of the companies are detected. Following this, long term ARDL models and Error correction models have been implemented on each of the series. The data set used in the study covers the period between 2000Q3-2019Q4 at the quarterly frequency. 5 companies are selected out of the BIST100 index with the highest price maturity, excluding the financial institutions. Findings – Results of the study indicate that both Return on Equity and Equity Ratio have statistically significant, inverse relationships with the analyzed companies both long and in short term. However, for the companies used in the study, the net forex position had no significant effect. Discussion – As the majority of the stock price volatilities are affected negatively by the equity return factors, the findings of the study reject the existence of a market-wide equity return anomaly in the Turkish stock market. However, the net forex position is one of the most significant risk factors for the Turkish firms and as findings indicate, it is alarming that it plays no part at all in the investment decisions.

Trading rules and excess returns: evidence from Turkey

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate popular technical trading rules (TTRs) applied to the FTSE Turkish all-cap and small-cap indexes from September 23, 2003 to August 9, 2019 to determine rules that produce net excess returns over the Buy-and-Hold strategy (B&H).Design/methodology/approachFive TTRs, namely, simple moving average, relative strength index, moving average convergence divergence, momentum, and rate of change, are applied, singly (one indicator) and in combination (two indicators) for multiple time periods.FindingsFor the small-cap index, some TTRs – including the famous Golden Cross, when the 50-day moving average rises above 200-day moving average – produced net annual excess returns (NAERs) over the B&H strategy, for the entire period and each sub-period, after accounting for risk and transaction costs. Results were mixed for the large-cap index. The results support Cakici and Topyan (2013).Research limitations/implicationsThis study investigates several indicators, but future studies should examine others, especially based on volume and price.Practical implicationsInvestors in the FTSE Turkish small-cap index may use some trading rules to earn NAERs over the B&H strategy.Originality/valueThis research is important because it addresses a gap in the research by examining numerous TTRs in the Turkish stock market. Studies of TTRs in Turkey are scarce.

Macroeconomic Variables and Sector-Specific Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Exchange Market

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variable shocks on industrial and financial stock returns in the Borsa Istanbul. To this end, we use the generalized forecast error variance decompositions and generalized impulse responses. The results show that inflation, the growth rate of the money supply, and the exchange rate provide significant information for forecasting industrial and financial stock market volatility. The impact of industrial production on stock returns appears to be negligible, both in the short and long horizons. The study extends our understanding of sectoral stock market behavior in a developing country.

Co‐movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach

AbstractThis study aims to investigate the causal relationship between the Turkish stock market returns, namely XU100, and foreign exchange rates, namely USD/TRY and EUR/TRY, in Turkey using the wavelet coherence approach. In this study, we focus on the period from April 2000 to March 2019. Our findings reveal the following: (i) While we identify substantial volatility in the exchange rate during the 2000 November (banking crisis), 2001 February (economic crisis), and 2018 July (exchange rate crisis) periods, significant volatility was observed in the Turkish stock market during the 2000 banking crisis, 2001 economic crisis, and 2008 global crisis periods; (ii) There is a negative correlation between the Turkish stock market and foreign exchange rates at different frequencies over the selected sample period; (iii) A unidirectional causality runs from the Turkish stock market to foreign exchange rates between 2000 and 2004 at a scale of 4 months and between 2008 and 2012 at a scale of 32 months; (iv) Although inconsistent results are observed for the models of USD/TRY‐XU100 and EUR/TRY‐XU100, our empirical results show that the correlations between USD/TRY and XU100 are stronger than between EUR/TRY and XU100.

Volatility Spillovers and Correlations between Oil Prices and Stock Sectors in Turkey: Implications on Portfolio Hedging and Diversification Opportunities

This study investigates volatility spillover effects as well as hedging and diversification opportunities between sectoral stock returns and world crude oil prices in Turkey using the weekly closing prices of the BIST 100 and twenty-three sectoral stock indices for the period 2002-2018. DCC modelling is employed to investigate volatility spillovers between sectoral stock returns and oil prices. Findings reveal significant volatility spillovers from the oil market to the BIST 100 and twelve stock sectors. Furthermore, optimal hedge ratios, optimal portfolio weights, hedging effectiveness, diversification effectiveness and risk-adjusted returns of oil-stock portfolios are computed and compared. The results indicate that diversification is a more effective strategy than hedging in terms of risk (variance) reductions and risk-adjusted returns in the Turkish stock market.

The Effect of Capital Structure on Financial Performance “Applied study in Turkish Stock Exchange”

The Effect of Capital Structure on Financial Performance “Applied study in Turkish Stock Exchange” Muhammad Nawzad Ali1 and Amanj Mohamed Ahmed2 1,2 Darbandikhan Technical Institute, Sulaimani Polytechnic University, Sulaimani, Kurdistan Region, Iraq Corresponding email: amanj.mohamed@spu.edu.iq Abstract The requirements for businesses to have an effective and efficient capital structure have become critical to the health […]

Analysis of the Influence of the Price of Raw Oil and Natural Gas on the Prices of Indices and Shares of the Turkish Stock Exchange

This article is a review on the impact of prices and their dependence on the cost of oil and natural gas on the world stock markets. The main studies and results achieved in the field of the impact of prices on both the stock index and industrial stocks and the dependence on the level of oil prices are presented. The paper presents an econometric study on the choice of offers on the securities market that allows us to identify the main specifics of changes in prices for the stock index and industrial shares in the daily period from 13. 05. 2012 to 01. 12. 2019. The article uses methods for estimating the impact of the price of natural gas and WTI crude oil using the Gretl statistical program, taking into account the selection of the main correlation features of the price matrix. Of the 13 proposed research models, only one model showed its statistical insignificance. A paired linear model of the CocaCola share price dependence and its dependence on NGFO prices was presented and analyzed in detail. Based on the results of econometric modeling, linear regression models were constructed for the dependence of stock prices on the NGFO and WTISPOT prices. The Gretl environment allows you to evaluate the situation in the econometric environment and make a forecast based on the obtained models of the dependence of stock prices and make appropriate conclusions.

Insider Trading Profitability in Turkey

This study presents the first large-scale, comprehensive evidence on the insider trading patterns and abnormal returns in the Turkish stock market. Starting with a summary of the legislation, an event study methodology is used to compute daily abnormal returns of almost 65,000 insider transactions. Findings show that insiders earn 1.56 percent more than the market average return on the first six days following the trading day. The highest abnormal returns are earned by small firm insiders. Top executives, officers, directors, legal entities, funds, and large shareholders earn significantly higher than the market average return. Short-term and midterm abnormal profits vary with size, the value of the trade, holdings of the insider, relation of the insider with the company, number of insiders within a company, and whether the transaction is a sale or purchase.

Herding behaviour in Turkish stock market sector indices: the effect of COVID-19 outbreak

Herding behaviour in Turkish stock market sector indices: the effect of COVID-19 outbreak

HOW BORSA ISTANBUL (BIST) REACTS TO THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS: THE COVID-19 CASE

The purpose of this study is to investigate the response of the Turkish stock market to the novel coronavirus pandemic. To probe the issue, a dataset based on a total of 23 selected Borsa Istanbul (BIST) subindices of BIST Industrials, Services, and Financial indices for the period between 20 March, 2020 and 31 December, 2020 is utilized together with the growth in the weekly numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths both for Turkey and the world. A total of four models are run using panel data analysis on 943 index-date observations. The results of the One-way random effects models with time effects reveal that BIST indices react negatively to the growth in weekly COVID-19 new case and death numbers for both Turkey and the world. Further findings as to the control variables show that while Credit Default Swap (CDS) figures reduce selected stock index returns, Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index figures known as Fear Index (VIX) are found to increase them during the observation period.

An Analysis of the Effects of Seismic Events on The Turkish Stock Market1

Purpose – This study aims to elaborate on the mechanisms of interaction between seismic events and the Turkish stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – To model this relationship, the properties of earthquakes has been modeled using Mw and ML parameters. Earthquakes’ distance to the surface and the distance to the closest city center are also added as independent variables. Dataset consists of 7333 observations of daily frequency between 01.01.2000 – 28.01.2020 covering longer than a 20-year period. The index of BIST TUM is used to represent the response of the Turkish stock market. Preliminary analysis on the dataset suggested a threshold effect and therefore, the threshold VAR model has been used to model the series. Findings – Findings validate the existence of a significant threshold effect at 4.3 magnitude, which points out to the conclusion that earthquakes below a certain magnitude do not have a significant relationship with the stock markets in Turkey. Additionally, as seismic events occur closer to the surface, their negative effects on the market seem to amplify. This effect is also observed as seismic events get closer to city centers. Additionally, non-damaging seismic events seem to cause substantial market responses. Discussion – The effects of nondestructive earthquakes along with the effects of aftershocks following a destructive earthquake indicate that the financial consequences of earthquakes in Turkey are likely to be more related to the perception of risk, rather than the actual destructiveness of the earthquake. Findings also indicate that the aftershocks following a big earthquake hasten the recovery of the BIST TUM index.

Covid-19'un Gelişmekte Olan Pay Piyasası Oynaklığına Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul'dan Ampirik Bulgular

The study aims to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the Turkish stock market volatility and reveal how different industries are affected by COVID-19. Volatility between pre-COVID and COVID periods are compared across industries to understand the impact of the first shock. Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDR) model is employed to determine the transition from low volatility (pre-COVID) period to high volatility (COVID) period. The findings reveal a significant deterioration in volatility for all industries during the COVID-period, with a more dominant impact on the service sector. Then, factors that drive stock market volatility are investigated to understand the role of COVID-19 on increasing volatility. Results show that COVID-19 patients trigger volatility for all industries except food & beverages, insurance, non-metal mineral product, and wholesale & retail trade. On the other hand, an increase in the number of recoveries results in lower volatility for most of the industries. Besides, credit default swap increases volatility while the exchange rate lowers volatility. However, the magnitudes of credit default swap and exchange rate are greater than those of patients and recoveries, suggesting that COVID-19 is not the main driver of volatility for the Turkish stock market in the pandemic period.

Bank Efficiency and Stock Returns in the Turkish Stock Market: A Two-stage Analysis Approach

This study researches the effects of bank efficiency changes of returns in Turkish stock markets using a two-stage model for the period of 2002-2017. First, Malmquist Productive Index is employed to measure the different dimensions of efficiency; then, static and dynamic panel data models are used to investigate the effects of efficiency changes. First stage indicates that efficiency increased until 2010, and then a considerable decrease was observed. Second stage proves that together with market itself efficiency change has explanatory power on stock return. Effect of increase in profitability efficiency is positive in the long run while effect of intermediation is positive in the short but negative in the long run. This may be explained with the side effects of increasing intermediation in the short run as the increasing non-performing loans and decreasing profitability in the long run.

The Impact of US Monetary Policy Announcements on Equity Prices: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul

This study examines the effect of FOMC's (Federal Open Market Committee) announcements on the volatility of stock returns in the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) from January 4, 2000 to May 31, 2019. We find that FOMC's news increases the market level of volatility on announcement days but cannot find any evidence that it had a destabilizing effect on the Turkish stock market over our observation period. We also look at the effect of FOMC's news on the return volatility of the BIST100 index over different states of the stock market and find that FOMC's announcement days give a lift to conditional volatility both in bull periods and bear periods, but find no evidence of destabilizing impact. On the contrary, both positive announcement and negative announcement shocks in bull periods are found to depress volatility on consecutive days. In other words, FOMC's announcements in bull periods have a stabilizing effect on equity prices rather than a destabilizing in the BIST100 index.

Volatility Jump: The Effect of COVID-19 on Turkey Stock Market

This paper investigates the effect of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Turkey stock market. For this purpose, montly realized volatilities of 23 primary sector indices traded on Borsa İstanbul are calculated for the period of June 2019 to July 2020. After analyzing realized volatility values, it is found that: (1) COVID-19 caused volatility jump for all sector indices in March 2020, when cases in Turkey appeared and increased rapidly; (2) While the most volatility jump occurred in stocks of sports companies due to COVID-19, the least volatility jump occurred in stocks of insurance firms; (3) After March 2020, realized volatility values back to normal for all sector indices and the effect of COVID-19 on Turkey stock market volatility has disappeared. This paper, showing the impact of COVID-19 on the Turkish stock market and the recent state of the markets, is believed to provides important implications for not only investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers, but also for academics in economics and finance, who are all looking to demonstrate economic and financial effects of COVID-19.

Post-earnings announcement drift: Evidence from Turkey

We study the post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) anomaly and its determinants in Borsa Istanbul using quarterly earnings announcements and three different surprise measures. We find evidence supportive of the existence of PEAD in the Turkish stock market. Sorting stocks each quarter into three quantiles according to an earnings surprise measure based on past earnings, we find both statistically and economically significant difference of 2.9% in average cumulative abnormal return between high earnings surprise firms and low earnings surprise firms in the 60 days following the announcement. The hedge returns obtained using analyst forecast based surprise measure as well earnings announcement return based surprise measure are also significant at 2.9% and 2.2% respectively. The positive relation between post-announcement abnormal returns and the surprise in earnings remain significant after controlling for an extensive list of explanatory variables. Among these explanatory variables, we find that firm size has a negative impact on the magnitude of this positive association between surprise and subsequent equity returns. Finally, using two separate approaches we show that multifactor models fail to explain the return differentials following earnings announcements.

Türkiye’de Halka Açık Firma Yatırımcılarının Yaşadığı Vekalet Maliyetleri

Stock markets play a significant role in terms of collecting the savings of individual investors and providing equity financing options for the companies. In most cases, individual investors cannot have a chance to represent themselves on the boards of the companies which they invest in. This situation causes investors to suffer from agency costs which are well defined in the corporate governance literature. This paper aims to define the agency costs of publicly traded equities owners in the Turkish stock market. All publicly traded companies in Borsa İstanbul included in the research, which covers the period between 2010 and 2018 which is after the global financial crisis in 2008. Findings of the study show that there is an adverse relationship between financial performance of the companies and the free float ratio. The companies with the higher free float ratios have the lowest profitability. On the other hand, the main shareholders tend to sell their stocks when the stock pricing and the company's periodic profitability is relatively high. The market perceived this as a negative signal and a negative relationship was observed between the free float change and the stock price performance.

Contrarian Strategy or Relative Strength Strategy: An Evidence from The Turkish Stock Market in 2010s

Hisse senedi fiyatlarının geçmiş verileri kullanılarak gelecekteki fiyatların tahmin edilip edilemeyeceği, finans literatürünün en çok tartışılan konularından biri olmuştur. Finans literatürü, hisse senedi piyasalarında çeşitli anomalilerin varlığına ilişkin fikir birliğine varmıştır. Ancak aşırı tepki anomalisine dair bulgular halen çelişkilidir. Zıtlık stratejisi savunucuları “kazandıranları satma ve kaybettirenleri alma”nın normalüstü getiri sağlayacağını ileri sürerken göreceli güç stratejisi savunucuları tam tersini iddia etmektedir. Bu makale 2010’lu yıllarda Borsa İstanbul verisini kullanarak zıtlık veya göreceli güç stratejilerinin geçerliliğini incelemektedir. Portföy oluşturma dönemlerinde kazandıran portföyler, 2019 haricindeki tüm elde tutma dönemlerinde negatif normalüstü getiri sağlarken portföy oluşturma dönemlerinde kaybettiren portföyler tüm elde tutma dönemlerinde pozitif normalüstü getiri sağlamaktadır. Bulgular aşırı tepki hipotezini desteklemekte ve orta vadede kaybettirenlerin kazandıranlardan daha iyi performans gösterdiğini işaret etmektedir. Borsa İstanbul orta vadeli fiyat geri dönüşleri göstermekte ve yatırımcılar zıtlık stratejisi kullanarak normalüstü getiriler sağlayabilmektedir. Böylece Türkiye hisse senedi piyasasında zayıf formda piyasa etkinliğinin ihlali ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Aşırı tepkinin asimetrik olduğu ve kaybettirenlerdense kazandıranlarda gözlemlenebileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

TÜRKİYE PAY PİYASALARINDA ORTALAMAYA DÖNME EĞİLİMİ VE ZAMANLA DEĞİŞEN PİYASA RİSK PRİMİ

Mean reversion in stock markets has been an open question for the decades it has been meticulously tested. This study first aims at shedding further light on this unsettled issue by assessing mean reversion in a broad Turkish stock data via a non-parametric and model-free methodology. Variance ratio computations and distribution-free statistical tests based on randomization are used on dollar and lira denominated nominal, real and excess returns of Borsa Istanbul equity market. As a strong mean reversion is apparent in the empirical tests, the study secondly tries to identify a possible cause of this apparent anomaly. CAPM-based equity risk premium estimations generated via two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that the mean reversion might be explained by the dynamic nature of equity risk-premium. The results indicate that the mean reversion in Turkish equity market is a result of time-varying behavior of rational investors rather than market inefficiency.

KOVİD-19 Pandemisinin Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasına Etkileri: Sektörel Bir Analiz

The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has brought uncertainties to all countries in the world, causing human suffering and economic downturn that are unprecedented in recent history. This paper is the first empirical research that analyzes the effects of the outbreak on the Turkish stock market. The paper employed a fixed-effect model with daily data to explore the economic impact of the global pandemic at the sectoral level. Findings showed that sectoral indices were affected by the number of cases reported in Turkey than the number of cases in Europe and in the world. Furthermore, the most adversely affected sectors were metal products, machinery and sports, insurance and banking sectors. Despite the substantial economic downturn, food-beverage, wholesale and retail trade and real estate investment sectors have been the less affected industries from the outbreak.