Elections In Turkey Research Articles

Uncovering the Persuasive Effects of Democratic Criticism

In this article, we elaborate on the theoretical link between pronouncements on the quality of democracy and respondents' belief updating. We argue that sources of information that are relatively unbiased and offer information inconsistent with a respondent's prior beliefs will result in updating. Somewhat ironically, this means that government supporters are most likely to update their beliefs following criticism of democracy. We also argue that outside messages would typically be more convincing in democratizing settings, given respondents' partisan distrust of domestic messages. We offer evidence from a survey-experiment we deployed in the aftermath of the 2011 elections in Turkey. Our argument has implications for the capacity of international actors to help voters in the world's scores of democratizing countries deal with a pervasive yet hitherto little understood problem, namely, the lack of trusted interpretation on whether the actions of their elected governments are good of bad for democracy.

Comparative Analysis of Voting Participation: The Case of Turkey's 2009 Local and 2011 National Elections

This study comparatively analyzes voting participation through population sizes in local and national elections in Turkey. By equating and dividing the constituencies of 2009 local elections and 2011 national elections into 13 categories according to the number of voters, the study attempts to test hypotheses, such as local elections are carried out under the influence of national politics; and voters perceive local elections as less important than national elections. The study finds a steady decline in turnout rates in local elections, but not in national elections, while turnout in metropolitan areas is higher in national than local elections.

Did Secularism Fail? The Rise of Religion in Turkish Politics

AbstractReligious movements have long been challenging the modernist and secularist ideas around the world. Within the last decade or so, pro-religious parties made significant electoral advances in various countries, including India, Sudan, Algeria, and the Palestinian territories. In this article, we focus on the rise of the pro-religious Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi- AKP) to power in the 2002 elections in Turkey. Using the Turkish experience with political Islam, we evaluate the explanatory value of Mark Juergensmeyer's rise of religious nationalism theory, with a special emphasis on the “failed secularism” argument. Our analysis indicates that the theoretical approach formulated by Juergensmeyer has a great deal of explanatory power; however, it does not provide a complete explanation for the success of the AKP. The rise of religion in Turkish politics is the result of a complex process over long years of encounter and confrontation between two frameworks of order, starting with the sudden imposition of secularism from above, when the republic was established. Hence, to understand the rise of religion in contemporary Turkish politics, an in-depth understanding of history, politics, and the sources of tension between secularists and Islamists is essential. The findings of this article have important implications for other countries, especially those that are experiencing a resurgence of religion in politics, and are struggling to integrate religious parties into a democratic system.

SİYASAL İLETİŞİM KAMPANYALARINDA SOSYAL MEDYANIN KULLANIMI (12 HAZİRAN 2011 SEÇİMLERİ “twitter” ÖRNEĞİ)

The rapid advances in communications and information technologies have been altering the old structures and habits in a radical way. One of the leading structures within this transformation process is the media and its political practices. Media as a factor inluencing politics and/or political orientations has been a dominant subject of debate within media studies. The formats of political action by political actors has been going through a transformation on both formal and informal contexts in accordance with contemporary conditions. This transformation has become more meaningful especially with the advances in information technologies in the past two decades. Along with the transmission of political messages to the public via classical propaganda techniques and conventional media means, a new era of “digital propaganda and online politics” as a new trend and course has come to existence. The fact that Barack Obama has won the 2008 Presidency elections in the USA by efficient and successful use of social media strategy has put forward social media as a necessary subject of political communication. In the light of these realities, the aim of this study is to make a research on the use of social media by Turkish politicians. The axis of this study is the general elections in Turkey held in 12 June 2011 and, by taking the Twitter accounts of the political leaders of parties which entered the Turkish National Assembly into consideration, content analysis method has been applied.

Minority Group Strategies for Endogenous Institutional Change: Kurdish Parties and Voters in Turkey's 2007 Referendum

Political institutions are socially constructed rules manifesting the preferences and strategic interactions of key actors at decisive moments. We investigate a contentious episode of institutional change in a divided society: the adoption of direct presidential elections in Turkey, approved by referendum in October 2007. Process tracing and regression analyses demonstrate that Kurdish politicians and voters in Turkey supported this reform. However, direct elections are unlikely to increase Kurds’ leverage over choosing Turkey's presidents and may even diminish it. Kurdish support for direct elections is better explained by the reform's broader anticipated impacts on the structuring of state power.

Forecasting Turkish local elections

Abstract The literature on political forecasting is large, although the main focus of this literature is limited to a number of countries. Nevertheless, and despite the major differences between political systems, scientific forecasting work has proved to be broadly possible, with noteworthy extensions to new countries. This article extends the literature further by developing a new forecasting model for local elections in Turkey. The basic motivation of this article is to test the usefulness of political forecasting in the contexts of alternative democratic settings. Turkey, in that sense, seems to be an interesting case for a number of reasons. First, the Turkish Republic has been a multi-party democracy since the mid-1940s. Although it has been interrupted by three military coups, the party and election system in Turkey has brought real alternations in the government starting from very early years of the multi-party system. So, it is plausible to argue that Turkish voters have the tradition of evaluating the performances of political parties, as in any other Western-type democracy. That is to say, the dynamics of evaluations of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to other contemporary democracies, being driven by economic and political forces. The main contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model, which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables across local elections in Turkey by using reliable, public, and macro-level data. In particular, this study offers a new forecasting model which tries to forecast the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi, AKP) vote share in 81 cities.

Editorial

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Muslim world is undergoing a political upheaval of historic proportions. The Arab Spring is one of the most recent and dramatic manifestations, with millions of men and women across the Arab world taking to the streets – often in the face of brutal repression ‒ to demand the reform or overthrow of their authoritarian governments.Their bravery has already led to the ouster of four dictators – in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen – and the process is still far from over. But this uprising is only part of a much broader phenomenon, as a reviewof just the past five years demonstrates. In late 2008, largely free and fairelections ended two years of military-backed emergency rule in Bangladesh,and put the country back on a democratic track. In 2009, similarelections in Indonesia consolidated the democratic regime that had beenin place there for just over a decade. That same year in Iran, by contrast, national elections, which were widely viewed as having been rigged, ledto the so-called “Green Revolution” – the biggest prodemocratic uprisingagainst the authoritarian regime there since the revolution of 1979. In2010, Iraq held its second, and far more representative, elections since theoverthrow of the Ba’athist regime. In 2011, national elections in Turkey that returned the AK Party to power with its largest electoral victory yet, coupled with ongoing judicial investigations into subversive activities byhard-line authoritarian elements, marked a decisive turning point in Turkey’s democratic evolution. In 2012, the willingness of Senegal’s president to step down peacefully after losing an election there seemed to confirm thevictory of democracy in that country as well.As the suppression of Iran’s Green Revolution, the 2012 military coupthat interrupted Mali’s democratic experiment, and the ongoing violencein several of the other transitioning polities, indicate the process is neithersmooth nor unidirectional. Several aspects of the current upheaval, however, are already clear. First and foremost, the political mobilization of theMuslim masses – the eruption of “people power” – is now an irreversiblereality for the foreseeable future, so that only regimes that are genuinelyrepresentative and accountable can hope to enjoy any legitimacy in thefuture. Second, as public opinion poll after poll has demonstrated, democracyhas become a hegemonic concept throughout the Muslim world aswell ‒ meaning that effective governance and opposition will need to take place within its institutional and normative parameters. Third, as Table 1shows, judging by the most recent election results, in most of the Middle Eastern states at least, political parties rooted in an Islamist background are likely to garner the lion’s share of electoral support for some time to come ...

The 2011 parliamentary election in Turkey

The 2011 parliamentary election in Turkey

No Crisis, No Change: The Third AKP Victory in the June 2011 Parliamentary Elections in Turkey

Amidst debates over a new constitution and increasing tensions over the Kurdish issue, the June 2011 parliamentary elections were considered crucial for the fate of democratic consolidation in Turkey. The article first discusses the background of the general elections, providing an account of the main political developments since the July 2007 general elections. After a discussion of the election campaign, the results of the parliamentary elections are presented. The article concludes by discussing the implications of the election results for democratic consolidation in Turkey under the Justice and Development Party's (AKP's) third term of single-party rule.

Foreign Policy During 2011 Parliamentary Elections in Turkey: Both an Issue and Non-issue

This article focuses on the foreign policy sections of 2011 election manifestos of the Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party) (AKP), the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican People's Party) (CHP), the Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi (Nationalist Movement Party) MHP, and the Emek, Demokrasi ve Özgürlük Bloku (Labor, Democracy and Freedom Bloc) (EDÖB) the pre-election Barş ve Demokrasi Partisi (Peace and Democracy Party) (BDP). Foreign policy is both an issue and a non-issue for Turkish electorate because although foreign policy issues have almost no impact on voters choices, the parties still continue to devote space to foreign policy performances, promises, and projections in their election manifestos. The analysis of 2011 election manifestos reveals that the AKP primarily envisions a Turkey with more commonalities with the East than with the West, but yet ranked Turkey's relations with Europe and the West higher; for the MHP while Turkey's commonality with the East was defined in terms of common history and culture, the West was portrayed to have commonness only in terms of values; the CHP equated European values with universalism and prioritized Turkey's ties with Europe; finally, the EDÖB manifesto was an anti-thesis of all manifestos where foreign policy was instrumental for the ideological goals of the bloc and subsequently of the BDP.

The 2011 Parliamentary Elections in Turkey and Challenges Ahead for Democratic Reform Under a Dominant Party System

The sweeping electoral victory of the centre-right Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey's parliamentary elections of 2011 constitutes a milestone in the governing party's consolidation of political dominance. This article discusses the significance of the recent elections for the challenge of reconciling majoritarian dynamics in the Turkish political system with the need to reach an enduring consensus among parliamentary parties. It is argued that, in the aftermath of the elections, this challenge has become more acute than ever in view of the likely emergence of a dominant party system under intensified political conflict around constitutional reform, despite a relative stabilization of party competition.

The 2011 General Elections in Turkey: Potential Implications on Domestic and International Politics in the Shadow of a Discourse Change?

On 12 June 2011, Turkey held its general elections. The government AK Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi) was able to maintain its absolute majority and win a third consecutive term in office. This article assesses the key issues of the previous parliamentary term, examines the 2011 election campaign and provides an outlook on the key issues that Turkey and its government are facing post elections. This includes an explanation of the controversy about some parliamentarians who were elected whilst under arrest or being subject to criminal proceedings. Other than that, our analysis focuses particularly on previous and planned constitutional reforms, developments in the area of freedom of expression and Turkey–European Union relations.

A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election

12 Haziran 2011 tarihinde Türkiye’de yapılacak olan milletvekili seçiminde ikti dardaki Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP)’nin ülke genelinde alması beklenen oy oranı nın öngörüsü, anket verilerine değil, tarihsel örüntülere dayanılarak yapılmıstır. Bunun için Akarca ve Tansel (2006) ve Akarca (2009) tarafından geliştirilen bir oy denklemi, gözden geçirilip güncelleştirildikten sonra, kullanılmıştır. Bu model hem ekonomik şartlardan dolayı hükümetin aldığı ödül ve cezaları, hem de iktidar olmanın getirdiği avantaj ve dezavantajları dikkate almaktadır. Model, hükümetin gücünü dengelemek amacıyla, seçmenlerin stratejik oy vermelerini de hesaba katmaktadır. Denklemin kestirilmesinde 1950 ile 2009 yılları arasında yapılan yirmiyedi parlemento ve yerel idareler seçimleri ile ilgili veriden yararlanılmıştır. Eğer tarih bir yol gösterici ise, önü müzdeki seçimde Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP)’nin oyların yüzde 44’ünü alması beklenmelidir.

Forecasting elections in Turkey

Abstract This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors. “…why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this.” Ozdemir Ince, 17 August 2007, Hurriyet, emphasis added.

Competition for popular support: a valence model of elections in Turkey

Models of elections tend to predict that parties will maximize votes by converging to an electoral center. There is no empirical support for this prediction. In order to account for the phenomenon of political divergence, this paper offers a stochastic electoral model where party leaders or candidates are differentiated by differing valences—the electoral perception of the quality of the party leader. If valence is simply intrinsic, then it can be shown that there is a “convergence coefficient”, defined in terms of the empirical parameters, that must be bounded above by the dimension of the space, in order for the electoral mean to be a Nash equilibrium. This model is applied to elections in Turkey in 1999 and 2002. The idea of valence is then extended to include the possibility that activist groups contribute resources to their favored parties in response to policy concessions from the parties. The equilibrium result is that parties, in order to maximize vote share, must balance a centripetal electoral force against a centrifugal activist effect. We estimate pure spatial models and models with sociodemographic valences, and use simulations to compare the equilibrium predictions with the estimated party positions.

Back to the Year When It All Started: Local Determinants of Party Preferences in 2002 Turkish Elections

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the 2007 general elections in Turkey by a large margin and became the first party since the 1980s to increase its votes in two consecutive elections while in power (1). Although the elections were held in a highly tense political climate arising from controversy surrounding the presidential elections (Bacik, 2008), the results came as no surprise to many and received far less attention in the media, academia and public compared to the previous elections held in 2002. The exceptionally low turnout rate of 59.3%, as opposed to 84.3% in 2002, is one of the obvious indications of low public interest in the elections.

Justice and Development Party at the Helm: Resurgence of Islam or Restitution of the Right‐of‐Center Predominant Party?

The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which had been in government since 2002, increased its votes dramatically in the 2007 national elections. It was a first since the 1954 and 1977 elections in Turkey. With immaculate Islamist credentials, had those who voted for the AKP actually voted for political Islam in 2007? Or, were there some other factors at play? This study examines the determinants of party preferences of Turkish voters in 2007. The nationally representative pre‐election survey of 2007 is used in the statistical analysis, which reveals that partisan affiliations followed by the voter satisfaction with the performance of the economy played the biggest role in determining the voter preferences in Turkey in the 2007 elections.

Inter-party vote movements in Turkey: The sources of AKP votes in 2007

Bu calismada, Temmuz 2007 genel seciminden kisa bir sure once ulke capinda gerceklestirilen bir secmen egilimleri anketinin verilerilerine dayanarak, 2002-2007 donemindeki oy kaymalari, Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) odakli olarak incelenmistir. Veri setinin ikili ve dortlu gruplandirmalara dayanan betimleyici analizi, AKP’nin bu donemde kendine cekmeyi basardigi yeni secmen kitlesinin, partiden destegini ceken nispeten kucuk kitleye gore daha genc, kadin agirlikli, ekonomik kosullardan memnun ve AB uyeligi yanlisi oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. AKP’yi tercih eden secmenlerin toplumun geri kalanina nazaran daha az egitimli oldugu ve laiklik konusundaki endiselerinin dusuk duzeyde oldugu da gorulmektedir. Ekonometrik calismanin en dikkat cekici bulgusu, 2007 secimindeki parti tercihiyle, - ozellikle geriye donuk - ekonomik degerlendirmeler arasinda guclu bir baginti oldugudur.

The March 2009 Local Elections in Turkey: A Signal for Takers or the Inevitable Beginning of the End for AKP?

The article offers a descriptive geographic account of the March 2009 local elections in Turkey. Cluster analysis is employed to investigate the results and changing voting patterns compared with the 2004 local government elections. AKP has stalled but remains the dominant party in the system. The electoral map indicates three main regions: the coastal western and most developed provinces where the opposition is strong, the east and southeastern provinces with rising Kurdish ethnic electoral support, and the more conservative provinces in between where the governing AKP remains dominant with the nationalist MHP trailing behind. Economic developments and the potential reshaping of ethnic Kurdish support will shape the next general election outcome.

TOWARD KURDISH DISTINCTIVENESS IN ELECTORAL POLITICS: THE 1977 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN DİYARBAKR

This article examines processes of ethnic and regional differentiation through a study of the 1977 local elections in Turkey's Kurdish-majority provinces. An analysis of electoral data shows a high level of support there for independent candidates, a result sharply at odds with voting in the rest of the country that indicates a new correlation between ethnicity and political behavior. We argue that independents benefitted from mainstream political parties' inability to mobilize voters in the southeast because of the declining power of local notables, the emergence of new social movements, and alternative frames that the parties were unable to integrate. This context allowed social and political outsiders to build social coalitions outside the mainstream parties, as we demonstrate through a case study of the election of independent candidate Mehdi Zana, a working-class Kurdish activist who won the 1977 Diyarbakır mayoral race.