Economic Growth In Turkey Research Articles

YENİ SOSYAL EKONOMİ ANLAYIŞINDA İŞ GÜCÜ TERCİHİNDE BİLİŞSEL BECERİLER VE KADIN İŞGÜCÜ PERSPEKTİFİNDE BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE DEĞERLENDİRMESİ

Bu çalışmada yeni sosyal ekonomi anlayışında iş gücü tercihlerinde bilişsel beceriler ve kadın işgücü sorunsalının Türkiye ekonomik büyümesindeki yerinin belirlenmesi ve sonuçlarının ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma, Türkiye istatistik Kurumu (TUİK) veri tabanı ile Eurostat veri tabanı 2015-2019 ve 2008-2020 dönemlerine ilişkin veriler ışığında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırmada daha çok son 5 yıllık süreçte gelinen durumun belirlenmesi ve değişimlerin vurgulanması amaçlanmıştır. Temel istatistiki göstergeler eşliğinde kadın çalışanların eğitim durumu için Türkiye’deki mevcut yapı ayrı değerlendirilmiş, bunun yanı sıra Türkiye ve AB 27 ülke gurubu için sadece eğitimin etkileri karşılaştırılmıştır. Bununla birlikte önemli parametrelerin ölçülmesinde temel araçlar olarak; işveren olarak kadın çalışanlar, işgücüne katılımı, tarım ve tarım dışı sektörlerde kayıt dışılıkları ve aile işçisi olarak çalışanların istihdam içindeki oranı bakılmıştır. Ayrıca yarı-zamanlı çalışanlar, mesleki guruplarına göre istihdam edilme konumları ile 3 yaşın altında çocuğu olan/olmayan kadın çalışanlar gibi değişkenlere bakılarak durum değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda, Türkiye’de yüksekokul, fakülte ve yüksek lisans ve doktora mezunu kadın sayısının giderek artış gösterdiği ve Türkiye’nin AB 27 ülke gurubuna nazaran bu anlamda daha ilerde olduğu görülmüştür. Kadın işgücünün son yıllarda eğitim düzeyinin artmasıyla çok daha farklı iş kollarında istihdam edildiği görülmektedir. Genellikle kadınların tarım ve yarı zamanlı ev tipi işlerde çalışma hayatında yer aldığı görülmesine rağmen bilişsel becerileri nedeniyle de daha çok hizmet sektöründe yoğunlaştıkları görülmüştür. Söz konusu çalışma alanları nedeniyle işgücüne katılım oranı içinde son beş yılda kadın sayısının erkeklerin yarısına kadar ulaşması kanıtlar nitelikte olduğu söylenebilir.

Are the effects of energy security on economic growth symmetric or asymmetric in Turkey? An application of non-linear ARDL

This paper is examined whether the relationship between economic growth and energy security risk level is symmetric or asymmetric in the case of Turkey between 1980 and 2018. What makes different of this study from the others few studies that examine the effects of energy security on economic growth by considering the 4A of energy security is that it examines the asymmetric impacts of energy security on economic growth by using the NARDL method. Accordingly, the results of the linear ARDL demonstrate that there is no long-term relationship between energy security risk level and economic growth. On the other hand, the results of the non-linear ARDL indicate that there is an asymmetrical relationship between economic growth and energy security risk level both in the long and short-term. Furthermore, according to the NARDL results, a 1% increase in energy security risk level decreases economic growth by approximately 0.60%, while a 1% decrease in energy security risk level increases economic growth by approximately 1.72%. These results demonstrate that economic growth in Turkey is significantly affected by positive and negative changes in the energy security risk level. Therefore, the results reveal the importance of policies to ensure energy security and allow for important policy implications for policymakers.

Does Climate Change Pose a Risk to Economic Growth in Turkey?

İklim değişikliğinin etkileri gün geçtikçe daha fazla artmaktadır. Bu nedenle, başta tarım sektörü olmak üzere ekonominin tüm kesimlerinin iklim değişikliğine olan duyarlılığı artmıştır. Özellikle az gelişmiş ülkelerde meydana gelen meteorolojik afetler ekonomi üzerinde ciddi hasarlara yol açabilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, gelişmiş ülkelerdeki ekonomik faaliyetlerin çevreye verdiği zarar ve iklim değişikliği içindeki rolleri dikkate alındığında, bu ülkelerin ekonomisinin de gelecekte iklim değişikliğinden etkilenebilmesi söz konusudur. Bu araştırma, iklim değişikliğinin iki temel aygıtı olan ortalama yıllık sıcaklık değişimleri ve karbondioksit emisyonlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri incelemiştir. Araştırmada, Türkiye’nin 1968-2018 arasındaki dönemi regresyon analizi yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin tahmin edilebilmesi için ilk olarak serilerin durağanlık düzeyleri sınanmıştır. Bunun için geleneksel birim kök testlerinin yanında yapısal değişim ve şokları göz önünde bulunduran yapısal kırılmalı Lee & Strazicich (2003, 2004) LM birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarının serilerin durağan olduğunu göstermesi üzerine, iklim değişikliğini temsil eden değişkenler ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki EKK regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Araştırma sonuçları sıcaklık artışlarının ekonomik büyüm üzerinde negatif yönlü ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Artan sıcaklıklar ekonomik büyümeyi azaltmıştır. Karbondioksit emisyonlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ise pozitif yönlü ve anlamlı bulunmuştur. Karbondioksit emisyonlarındaki artışın en önemli nedeni artan ekonomik faaliyetlerdir. Dolayısıyla, ekonomik aktivite arttıkça, çevresel emisyonlar ve buna bağlı olarak büyüme artmıştır. Ancak, karbondioksit emisyonlarının sıcaklık artışına neden olduğuna dikkat edilirse, bu emisyonlar dolaylı yönden ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Araştırma sonuçları ortalama yıllık yağış miktarı değişiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi olmadığını göstermiştir. Araştırma sonuçları, özellikle sıcaklık değişimlerinin etkisi temel alındığında, Türk ekonomisinin iklim değişikliğine karşı son derece duyarlı olduğunu göstermiştir.

The Relationship between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier Tests

In this study, the effects of financial development and trade openness on economic growth were investigated using annual data for Turkey over the period 1960–2017. The financial development variable is represented as the ratio of financial system deposits to GDP. The trade openness variable is represented as the ratio of the sum of exports and imports of goods and services to GDP. To examine the long-run relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth; Fourier-based stationarity test and its complementary Fourier-based cointegration test are used. Finally, Fourier-based causality tests are also used to examine the causality relationship between the variables. As a result of cointegration tests, a long-term cointegration relationship was found between variables. According to the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis results, it is seen that there is a one-way causality relationship from financial development to economic growth and from financial development to trade openness.

AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY AND THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Insurance provides risk management by providing compensation for potential losses of people. The insurance sector, which is an important part of the financial sector, can have a positive impact on economic growth. This effect is mainly due to the reliability and stability of the insurance, the private savings, and the resource-increasing feature of the financial sector. In recent years, it has been given importance to investigate the relationship between insurance and economic growth. In Turkey, which has a significant potential in terms of economic growth, there is a limited study on the relationship between insurance and growth, since the insurance activities have just started to widen. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to fill in this gap and explore this relation between the insurance sector and economic growth for Turkey. For this purpose, by applying annual data between 1983-2020, the relationship between insurance premiums, penetration rate and economic growth in Turkey is analyzed by Pesaran et al. (2001) ARDL method. The Bound test results show that there is a long-term relationship among the variables. According to the ARDL result, while a significant relationship was measured between the total insurance premium and economic growth in the long run, no significant relationship was found between the penetration rate and economic growth.

Effect of Renewable Energy and Traditional Energy Production on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey and Azerbaijan

The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between traditional energy and renewable energy in the economic growth of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Multiple Linear Regression Model was used to measure whether there is a significant or insignificant relationship between dependent and independent variables and how these variables affect economic growth. Data for the years 2005-2015 were used in the study. In order to reveal the importance of the model in the analysis process, a series of assumption tests were conducted. The VIF test was used to measure whether the independent variables were related to each other, the Breusch-Godfrey LM test to examine whether there was autocorrelation between the error terms, and the Shapiro-Wilk W test, which is another assumption, was used to measure the normal distribution of the error terms. As a result of the multiple linear regression analysis performed at the end, no relationship was found between renewable energy and economic growth for Azerbaijan, but a significant result was obtained between traditional energy production and economic growth. When we examine the analysis in terms of Turkey, there is no relationship between renewable energy or traditional energy production and economic growth in this country.

The Relationship Between the Manufacturing Industry and Economic Growth in Turkey

The aim of this paper is to review the 1980-2020 periods, with manufacturing exports in Turkey to investigate whether there is a causal relationship between economic growth and the manufacturing industry. The relationship between manufacturing industry exports and economic growth is analyzed econometrically. A positive correlation has been determined from co-integration analysis in the long run, manufacturing industry exports to economic growth. The Granger causality test applied determined that there is a one-way causality relationship running from manufacturing industry exports to growth in the short run. To support the Granger causality test, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test has also been found to have a one-way causality relationship from manufacturing industry exports to economic growth. After the causality tests, in order to determine the sign of the impact, the stationary series were tested and the Least Squares (OLS) method was applied for the econometric model and the result of the positive effect of the manufacturing industry exports on economic growth was reached.

The Dynamic Effect of Biomass Energy Consumption on Economic Growth and Environmental Quality in Turkey

This study investigates the impact of biomass energy consumption on Turkey's economic growth and environmental quality. The research used annual time series data from 2004 to 2019. The ADF and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were utilised to test the stationarity of the series. In this study, the ARDL model is employed as an estimation technique. The results indicate that biomass energy consumption helps to reduce pollution and improve environmental quality in the long-run and short-run in Turkey, while economic growth and technological innovation increase the environmental deterioration. Therefore, this paper recommends that economic policymakers, specifically in Turkey, consider strategies that support sustainable economic growth using reusable energy sources.

The Effect of Sectoral Bank Loans on Economic Growth in Turkey

In this study the effect of the loans extended by banks on the growth of the sector on a sectoral basis in the quarter of 2004Q1 and 2021Q2 in Turkey has been examined. The variables used as data in the study are real loans extended by banks to the construction, food, metal, personal loans, textile, transportation and wholesale retail sectors. The VAR method, the Johansen cointegration test and the Engle-Granger causality test were used as methods while performing the analysis. While analyzing whether the loans extended by banks to various sectors have a long-term relationship with growth with the Johansen cointegration test, the direction of these relations was determined with the Engle-Granger Causality test. Finally, the effect of shocks in sectoral loans on economic growth was evaluated by using impulse-response functions. The variables used were obtained from the CBRT (Banks Association of Turkey Risk Center). According to the Johansen cointegration test results, it was determined that there is cointegration between the data in the long term. According to the Engle-Granger test results, at the 10% significance level, there is a one-way causality relationship from GDP to transportation, personal loans and construction in the long run and there is a unidirectional causality relationship in the long run from the metal sector to GDP.

Revisiting of The Relationship Between Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Fourier Approach

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1960-2019 dönemi için savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla ilk olarak değişkenlerin durağanlığı Fourier Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (FKPSS) ve Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) durağanlık testleriyle araştırılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığı ise Fourier SHIN ve SHIN eşbütünleşme testleri ile sınanmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ilgili dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Eşbütünleşme katsayı tahmini ise Tamamen Geliştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ve Dinamik Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi tahmincileriyle test edilmiştir. İlgili testler aracılığıyla hem kısa hem de uzun dönem de savunma harcamalarında meydana gelen artışın ekonomik büyümeyi artırdığı elde edilmiştir.

The Impact of Financial Development and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Turkey: An Analysis with Structural Breaks

Bu çalışmada; finansal gelişme ve enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri, Türkiye’nin 1960-2019 dönemi verileri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığı; Vogelsang-Perron (1998), Lee-Strazicich (2003) ve Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) birim kök testleriyle incelenmiş, serilerin I(1) oldukları görülmüştür. Serilerin eşbütünleşme durumu; Gregory-Hansen (1996) ve Maki (2012) testleriyle incelenmiş, serilerin eşbütünleşik oldukları bulunmuştur. Uzun dönem analizleri; FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleriyle gerçekleştirilmiş, ekonomik büyümenin; kredi miktarı %1 arttığında ortalama %0,13, para arzı %1 arttığında %0,13 ile %0,24 arasında, enerji tüketimi %1 arttığındaysa ortalama %0,40 arttığı belirlenmiştir. Kısa dönem analizleri de FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleriyle gerçekleştirilmiş ve özel sektöre verilen kredilerin ekonomik büyümeyi kısa dönemde de artırdığı, ancak bu etkinin uzun dönemdekinden daha küçük olduğu belirlenmiştir. Para arzındaki artışların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki kısa dönemli etkilerinin de pozitif olduğu görülmüştür. Enerji tüketiminin ise ekonomik büyümeyi kısa dönemde, uzun dönemdekinden daha fazla artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri VECM yöntemiyle incelenmiş, ekonomik büyümeden enerji tüketimi ve para arzına doğru tek yönlü, kredi hacminden enerji tüketimi ve para arzına doğru tek yönlü, enerji tüketimi ile para arzı arasında iki yönlü uzun dönem nedensellik ilişkilerinin var olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca kredi hacminden enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü, enerji tüketimi ile para arazı arasında iki yönlü kısa dönemli nedensellik ilişkileri belirlenmiştir.

Assessing the Impact of High-Technology Exports on the Growth of the Turkish Economy

High technology product export is emerging as one of the issues that economists have discussed frequently in recent years. Increasing the high-tech product export performance provides a competitive advantage in international trade for countries. To this extent, this study aims to determine the impact of high technology product export on economic growth for Turkey over the period 1990-2019. For the empirical analysis, Hatemi-J (2008), Gregory and Hansen (1996) Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), DOLS, and Canonical cointegration regression (CCR) methods are utilized. According to the Hatemi-J cointegration test, there is a long-term relationship between high-technology product export, fixed capital formation, and economic growth, yet a structural break was detected for 2008. In addition, the Gregory and Hansen test result also confirms the cointegration relationship under structural breaks for 2003 and 2006. FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR long-term coefficient test results indicate that high technology product export positively impacts economic growth. The fundamental policy recommendation of this study is to increase financial resources to boost high-tech exports and thus economic growth.

ÜÇÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

The condition, in which the current account deficit, the budget deficit, and the saving-investment deficit come together in any economy, is called the triple deficit. This paper presents a scientific application of the triple deficit hypothesis and an appreciation of the relationship among the triple deficit components and the economic growth in Turkey within the period 1985-2019. This paper, ARDL model, bounds test, Error Correction Model and Toda-Yamamoto Test were applied to determine the relationships among the current account deficit, the budget deficit, and the saving-investment deficit. For the triple deficit hypothesis test, the results of the bounds test were significant at a statistical significance of 10%. The results showed that each of the ARDL model and the error correction Model confirmed is the presence of a long-term relationship between the three deficits. As the results of the Toda-Yamamoto Test clarified the existence of a relation tends from the budget deficit and the saving-investment deficit to the current account deficit with a statistical significance at 1%. For the appreciation of the relation among the components of the triple deficit and the economic growth, the results of ADRL model and error correction model pointed out to a long-term relationship among the current account deficit, the budget deficit of the economic growth.

Empirical Analysis of the Effect of External Shocks on Turkey's Economic Growth

Küreselleşme kavramının etki alanları içinde özellikle ekonomik boyutu, son yüzyılda dünya ticaretinde önemli gelişme ve büyüme kat ederek göz alıcı bir noktaya gelmiştir. Küreselleşmenin neden olduğu acımasız rekabet makroekonomik istikrarsızlık yaratarak konjonktörel dalgalanmalara neden olmaktadır. Bir ülkenin uluslararası ekonomik ilişkileri nedeniyle diğer ülkelerde ortaya çıkan dışsal şoklar konjonktürel dalgalanmaların kaynakları arasında yer almaktadır. Dalgalanmaların nedenlerine ve kaynaklarına ilişkin mevcut literatürde dışsal şokların yarattığı dengesizlikler genel olarak arz ve talep kaynaklı olmak üzere iki açıdan ele alınmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin yoğun ticaret ilişkisi içinde olduğu ülkelerden kaynaklanan dışsal arz ve talep şoklarının kısa ve uzun vadeli makroekonomik etkileri iş çevrimleri ve senkronizasyon dikkate alınarak araştırılmış ve Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyümesi üzerindeki olası etkileri ortaya konmuştur. Buna göre Türkiye, ABD, Almanya, İngiltere, Rusya, Çin, İtalya, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri ve Irak'ın ilgili değişkenlerinin 1989-2019 dönemine ait verileri zaman serileri, ARDL modeli ve Varyans Ayrıştırma Yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular her bir ülke ve dönem için farklılık göstermektedir. Buna göre tüm modellerde Türkiye’nin kişi başına GSYH’sında meydana gelen değişimin büyük kısmının kendinden kaynaklandığı ve ayrıca sermaye, emek ve petrol fiyatı değişkenlerinin etkisinin daha fazla olduğu dikkat çekmektedir

Direction of Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey

This paper has investigated the causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey, using data from 2005:04 to 2020:03. We construct a time-series model to explore causality relationships between the variables. In the study, two indicators were used as financial development indicators: banking loans to the private sector and money supply to GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The empirical results have represented a bi-directional relationship between financial development and economic growth in the short run. On the other hand, we have not found a causality relationship in the long term.

Islamic finance and economic growth: the Turkish experiment

PurposeThis study aims to empirically investigate the connection between Islamic finance and economic growth in Turkey using the endogenous growth model.Design/methodology/approachIt applies quantile regression with the Markov chain marginal bootstrap resampling technique by adopting total Islamic financing as the main exogenous explanatory factor in the endogenous growth model, while the gross domestic product (GDP) is employed as a measure of economic growth. The sample consists of all full-fledged participation (Islamic) banks operating in Turkey spanning from 2013Q4 until 2019Q4. The study uses academic literature, official financial reports from the Participation Banks Association of Turkey, REDmoney Group, Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database.FindingsThe results show that Islamic finance is promoting economic growth in Turkey, which mirrors the success of the New Turkish Economy Program (2019–2021) which aims at boosting economic growth by enhancing the Islamic finance share in the Turkish banking sector and the global market.Research limitations/implicationsTurkey has a dual banking system (conventional and participation (Islamic)) and both can influence the country's real economy. This study is limited to the influence of Islamic banking on Turkish economic growth. The study also restricts its size and coverage from 2013Q4 to 2019Q4, to cover the years over which data for all variables included in the research are available.Practical implicationsThis paper suggests the adoption of the Turkish successful experiment as a path to reach economic growth by increasing the Islamic finance share in the banking industry for countries that seek to promote economic growth by Islamic finance, as the findings of this paper support.Originality/valueThis study is the first that examines the influence of Islamic finance on economic growth under a new theoretical framework of the endogenous growth model in Turkey using a robust non-parametric approach.

The Relationship Between Information and Communication Technology (ICT), International Migration and Economic Growth in Turkey

The paper examines the information and communication technology-international migration-economic growth nexus for Turkish economy using annual time series data covering the period of (1998-2019). Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test (TY) was used in the application of econometric method The results obtained indicated that there is a unidirectional causality from international migration to economic growth in the long run for Turkey. This is inline with the empirical evidences that external immigrant movements can promote economic growth in receiving country. Although the form of migration to Turkey is unclear in terms of skilled or unqualified labor force, international migrants, even including daytripper workers from neighbour countries, boost the economic activities especially in agriculture, construction and service sectors in Turkey. The paper also concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship between ICT and economic growth. The ICT usage can make a substantial contribution to economic growth of Turkey so Turkish government should improve the infrastructure of Internet and mobile phone with a conscious policy initiative. Besides, lastly, it is observed that there is not a causal relationship between migration and ICT at 5 % for Turkey. It’s found that there is a unidirectional causality from migration to ICT at 10 %.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY WITH THE ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of economic growth and inflation on unemployment for the period 2005:1- 2020:9 in Turkey by using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) model. In the study, firstly unit root tests were carried out to determine whether economic growth (ind) and inflation (cpi) have long and short-term effects on unemployment (unemp). Then, the ARDL method was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the series in the model where the unemployment rate is the dependent variable, the Industrial Production Index representing economic growth and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing inflation. Instead of GDP, the Industrial Production Index was preferred both to harmonize with the monthly data and to make a production-based analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the variables, and the short-term relationship was analyzed with the error correction model (ECM). As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between unemployment, inflation rate and economic growth in Turkey. According to the results of the analysis, negative between unemployment and industrial production index; It is seen that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and inflation.

The Relationship Between CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Turkey

The relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth has recently been the focus of discussion between policy makers and scientists around the world. The relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth has recently been the focus of discussion between policy makers and scientists around the world. In order to meet human needs, energy is needed in the activities to be carried out and the demand for this energy has increased exponentially over the years. Today, energy is produced from two sources: fossil fuels and renewable resources. Turkey renewable energy resources, particularly hydropower, wind energy, solar energy and are a country with significant potential for geothermal energy sources. Compared to fossil fuels, the carbon emissions from renewable energy sources are low. CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels vary depending on the type of fossil fuel used. In this study, the energy sector between Turkey's 1990-2016year, agricultural activities and carbon emissions per person from industrial processes and the per capita change in the manufacturing sector with the relationship between GDP energy imports, health care costs have been analysed.

Analysis of Interaction Between Exports and Economic Growth In Turkey

İhracat artışının ekonomik büyüme için önemli bir dinamik oluşturduğu görüşü literatürde oldukça geniş bir kabul görmektedir. Keynesyen iktisadın geliştirdiği ihracat dayalı büyüme hipotezine göre ihracat artışı, toplam talepte bir yükseliş sağlayarak çarpan mekanizması sayesinde milli gelir üzerinde olumlu etki oluşturmaktadır. Buna karşılık Klasik iktisadın devamı olarak bazı iktisatçılar ekonomik büyümenin ihracatın çekici gücü olduğu görüşünü savunmaktadır. Çalışmamızda söz konusu görüşler Türkiye ekonomisi tecrübesinden yararlanılarak test edilmiştir. Bunun için 2002-2018 yılları arasındaki çeyrek dönemlik veriler Hatemi-J Eşbütünleşme ve Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik testleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar ihracata dayalı büyüme yaklaşımını doğrulayan dolayısı ile istikrarlı büyüme için ihracatı geliştirici politikaların etkili olacağını ortaya koymuştur.