Tsunami Simulation Research Articles

Forward energy grade line analysis for tsunami inundation mapping

A simplified model using 1D topobathymetric profiles for generating tsunami inundation maps is implemented and evaluated. The approach is a modification of the ASCE Energy Grade Line Analysis, that allows estimation of the maximum inundation distances using an iterative method. The modified methodology is implemented in three coastal cities in central Chile and compared with a database of 5400 full tsunami simulations obtained from a Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations solver. The key parameter of the model is based on the Froude number, for which three parameterizations and a range of values are tested. Results show that errors in the estimation of the areal extent of the inundation can be as low as 4%, after calibration. However, calibration is site specific and the optimal solution depends on the geographical characteristics of the area of interest. A sensitivity analysis based on the aleatoric sampling of the full tsunami simulation database show that as little as 100 inundation maps are required to perform the calibration of the model. This is a manageable number that offers reduced computational costs when compared with full tsunami simulations, and even those required to train other surrogate models using machine learning.

Scenario Superposition Method for Real‐Time Tsunami Prediction Using a Bayesian Approach

AbstractIn this study, we propose a scenario superposition method for real‐time tsunami wave prediction. In the offline phase, prior to actual tsunami occurrence, hypothetical tsunami scenarios are created, and their wave data are decomposed into spatial modes and scenario‐specific coefficients by the singular value decomposition. Then, once an actual tsunami event is observed, the proposed method executes an online phase, which is a novel contribution of this study. Specifically, the predicted waveform is represented by a linear combination of training scenarios consisting of precomputed tsunami simulation results. To make such a prediction, a set of weight parameters that allow for appropriate scenario superposition is identified by the Bayesian update process. At the same time, the probability distribution of the weight parameters is obtained as reference information regarding the reliability of the prediction. Then, the waveforms are predicted by superposition with the estimated weight parameters multiplied by the waveforms of the corresponding scenarios. To validate the performance and benefits of the proposed method, a series of synthetic experiments are performed for the Shikoku coastal region of Japan with the subduction zone of the Nankai Trough. All tsunami data are derived from numerical simulations and divided into a training data set used as scenario superposition components and a test data set for an unknown real event. The predicted waveforms at the synthetic gauges closest to the Shikoku Islands are compared to those obtained using our previous prediction method incorporating sequential Bayesian updating.

Estimating response of structures to earthquake-induced tsunami: A simple approach per unidirectional analysis

The orientation of a structure with respect to the direction of propagation of tsunami wave may often be arbitrary. As such, it may be convenient to consider the tsunami wave as a combination of two orthogonal pair. The response of structures may then be computed to the simultaneous action of two components (bidirectional) covering multiple incidence angles. However, analysis of structures in three-dimension under two orthogonal components is a daunting exercise for routine design. Against this backdrop, beginning with the validation of the simulation of tsunami against real records, a detailed scrutiny of the response of simple building frames to tsunami is made over a range of orientations per both unidirectional and bidirectional analyses. This indicates the sensitivity of response over orientations and suggests that the maximum response to a bidirectional tsunami attack can be closely estimated by unidirectional analysis at appropriate orientations. This reveals the existence of the most intense orientations in which the response to unidirectional loading may approximately represent the maximum response to bidirectional loading over all orientations. Observing statistically significant positive correlation of tsunami potential (Pd) and peak destructive potential (Id) to the response to unidirectional tsunami attacks, these pure tsunami parameters are selected as suitable intensity measures (IM). Analytical (as well as graphical through standard Mohr’s circle) expressions are then derived for the orientations in which such IM can assume the maximum. It is shown that the unidirectional analysis conducted in these orientations can closely estimate the maximum response to bidirectional attacks out of all possible orientations for single story and multistorey building frames. Hence, the straightforward unidirectional analysis in the most intense orientations may be adopted for design of coastal structures.

Including sea-level rise and vertical land movements in probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Mediterranean Sea

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) introduces potential biases in tsunami risk assessment if it assumes static coastlines. Global warming, in addition to geological and local factors, may affect sea-level rise in the next few decades. Here, we provide a method that integrates the expected sea-level rise into existing PTHA, updating regional models without further tsunami simulations. We perform the tsunami hazard analysis at the densely populated Mediterranean coasts, which are highly exposed to tsunami inundations, as reported by historical and instrumental evidence. PTHA and related epistemic uncertainties significantly change when we include the time-dependent components, such as: (1) vertical land movements along the coasts, and (2) future sea-level changes based on the expected climate scenarios described by the IPCC AR6 Report. Probability maps show that the mean probability of exceeding the 1 m and 2 m maximum inundation heights in 2070 has a general increase differentiating locally, with percent variations mainly in the range 10–30% of the updated time-dependent PTHA compared with the current PTHA.

The effect of earthquake fault rupture kinematics on tsunami generation: a numerical study of real events

Summary The study is devoted to the effect of the fault rupture kinematics in the earthquake source on tsunami generation. Sixteen events of 1992–2021 years are investigated. For each event, the kinematic tsunami source (bottom motion during the earthquake) and the static tsunami source (permanent bottom deformation) were calculated using the Finite Fault Models provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. For both sources, numerical tsunami simulations were carried out within the framework of linear long-wave theory. Comparison of the simulation results showed that in ten out of sixteen events, the energy of tsunami excited by the kinematic source is greater than that excited by the static source. The maximum energy amplification (9.1 per cent) is observed at the minimum ratio of average rupture velocity to long-wave velocity. The Illapel 2015 event has been investigated more thoroughly using dispersive tsunami models jagurs and cptm. This investigation showed that the kinematic source causes a spatial redistribution of tsunami amplitudes and a noticeable amplification of the high-frequency component in the time series of tsunami height. At some points along the Chilean coast, the difference between the kinematic and static calculations is more than 2 m.

The Multi‐Segment Complexity of the 2024 MW ${M}_{W}$ 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake Governs Tsunami Generation

AbstractThe 1 January 2024, moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging analysis of its tsunami generation. We present tsunami models informed by a 6‐subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model obtained through Bayesian inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes. Initial, onshore rupture toward the southwest is followed by delayed re‐nucleation at the hypocenter, likely aided by fault weakening, causing significant seafloor uplift to the northeast. We construct a complex multi‐fault uplift model, validated against geodetic observations, that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. The simulations can explain tsunami wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Upon comparison with alternative source models and analysis of 2000 multi‐CMT ensemble solutions, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations.

A Typical of Tsunami Generation Caused by Volcano Flank Collapse in Banda Neira, Maluku, Indonesia

Abstract The history eruption of the Banda volcanoes was recorded in 1632, 1816, and 1988 and was preceded by significant earthquakes. In the eruption in 2017, there were 28 volcanic earthquakes, indicating a rock cracking process due to the movement of magma in the form of gas, liquid, and rock solids. We suspect that when the earthquake occurs, the rock-cracking process upon the eruption will potentially trigger the volcano flank to collapse into the sea and generate a tsunami in the Banda Naira and surrounding area. We contribute to modeling the travel time and tsunami inundation resulting from the flank collapse of Banda Volcano. BATNAS bathymetry data is used to run tsunami simulations. We use aerial photography from field survey data to interpret Banda Volcano failure parameters, including diameter, direction of sliding of the collapse, and slope of the collapse of the side of the Banda Volcano. Based on the tsunami simulation, the volcano flank collapse source on Banda Volcano produced a maximum tsunami in Banda Naira as high as 6.2 meters, and the tsunami will arrive around 6 – 8 minutes. While in AI Island, tsunami inundation reached 55.87 m and arrived in 4 minutes. Meanwhile, the maximum elevation of Banda Naira Island is 3.5 meters, with a population of 21,000 people in March 2024. Tsunami inundation has the potential to submerge entire residential areas in Banda Neira.

Enhancing tsunami modelling by using N-waves and the measured topography of coral reef: A study in the South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS), located at the intersection of two major tectonic plates and near the Manila Fault Zone, is a region highly susceptible to earthquakes and tsunami activities. To develop a more comprehensive and reliable understanding of tsunami behaviours over coral reefs, this study employs the actual topography of a coral reef in the SCS and N-wave theory for the numerical simulation, encompassing the entire tsunami life cycle. Utilizing the open-source solver OlaFlow, driven by the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, this study performs a series of numerical simulations of N-wave tsunamis considering the measured topography of the coral reef, as well as the real dimension of an engineering defence structure on the top of the coral reef. The adopted tsunami parameters are equivalent to an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.1. The simulations focus on the impact of wave profiles and initial static water levels on the propagation and evolution of tsunamis. Numerical simulations reveal that tsunami profiles, water depth, and topography significantly influence the tsunami dynamics, notably in the waveform transformation, the relationship between wave height and trough-to-peak ratio, and the topographic effects on the wave energy dissipation. These results highlight the critical need to incorporate factors such as tsunami profiles, dispersion, and realistic topography into tsunami predictive models for the purpose of more reliable hazard evaluation and the development of effective coastal defences.

Vulnerability of Physical Infrastructure Network Components to Damage from the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Coquimbo, Chile

AbstractThis study assesses physical infrastructure vulnerability for infrastructure network components exposed during the 2015 Illapel tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile. We analyse road and utility pole vulnerability to damage, based on interpolated and simulated tsunami hazard intensity (flow depth, flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux) and network component characteristics. A Random Forest Model and Spearman’s Rank correlation test are applied to analyse variable importance and monotonic relationships, with respect to damage, between tsunami hazards and network component attributes. These models and tests reveal that flow depth correlates higher with damage, relative to flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux. Scour (for roads and utility poles) and debris strikes (for utility poles) are strongly correlated with damage. A cumulative link model methodology is used to fit fragility curves. These fragility curves reveal that, in response to flow depth, Coquimbo roads have higher vulnerability than those analysed in previous tsunami event studies, while utility poles demonstrate lower vulnerability than with previous studies. Although we identify tsunami flow depth as the most important hydrodynamic hazard intensity metric, for causing road and utility pole damage, multiple characteristics correlate with damage and should also be considered when classifying infrastructure damage levels.

Authentic fault models and dispersive tsunami simulations for outer-rise normal earthquakes in the southern Kuril Trench

The southern Kuril Trench is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. In this study, marine surveys and observations were performed to construct fault models for possible outer-rise earthquakes. Seismic and seafloor bathymetric surveys indicated that the dip angle of the outer-rise fault was approximately 50°–80°, with a strike that was slightly oblique to the axis of the Kuril Trench. The maximum fault length was estimated to be ~ 260 km. Based on these findings, we proposed 17 fault models, with moment magnitudes ranging from 7.2 to 8.4. To numerically simulate tsunami, we solved two-dimensional dispersive wave and three-dimensional Euler equations using the outer-rise fault models. The results of both simulations yielded identical predictions for tsunami with short-wavelength components, resulting in significant dispersive deformations in the open ocean. We also found that tsunami generated by outer-rise earthquakes were affected by refraction and diffraction because of the source location beyond the trench axis. These findings can improve future predictions of tsunami hazards.Graphical

Compounding impacts of the earthquake and submarine landslide on the Toyama Bay tsunami during the January 2024 Noto Peninsula event

The January 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake (Mw 7.6) generated a destructive tsunami in the Sea of Japan region. Locally, inside Toyama Bay, the tsunami arrived at the Toyama wave and tide gauges within 2–3 min of the earthquake. Such an early tsunami arrival is inconsistent with the epicentral distance of ∼60 km. The travel time of the earthquake-induced tsunami is anticipated to be around 20 min, which is confirmed through tsunami simulations. Based on spectral and wavelet analyses of the Toyama tide and wave gauge records, we found 5 min, 14 min, and 32 min dominant wave periods. The shorter wave periods of 5 and 14 min are likely associated with a submarine landslide due to their early arrivals, as evidenced in our wavelet analysis. We then identified a potential submarine landslide location using the tsunami back-propagated travel time technique and visual inspection of the bathymetric profile. Conducting several simulations and comparing simulated and observed waveforms, we identified a seafloor landslide length of approximately 3000 m located ∼4 km offshore Toyama City. Our combined earthquake-landslide source model better reproduces the tsunami observations, indicating the contribution of the submarine landslide to the January 2024 Noto Peninsula tsunami.

Numerical simulation of submarine landslide tsunamis based on the smoothed particle hydrodynamics model

This paper establishes a SPH (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics) model for simulating underwater landslides based on the mixture theory. This model requires only one layer of particles, which greatly improves the computational efficiency compared with the traditional two-layer particle simulation for a mixture theory scheme. In the numerical model, based on a mixture theory, submerged landslide flow is regarded as a mixture of water and sediment phases and is discretized into a series of SPH mixed particles employing the volume fraction of the sediment phase. Using this volume fraction, a convection–diffusion term is calculated to represent the material transport between the water phase and the sediment phase. In addition, based on this volume fraction, the SPH mixed particles at any location in the considered domain are classified into three categories: (i) pure water, (ii) low-concentration suspended sediment, and (iii) high-concentration sediment. Pure water is treated as a Newtonian fluid. High-concentration sediment is modeled as a non-Newtonian fluid, and the Herschel–Bulkley–Papanastasiou rheological model is used to describe the viscous forces. The viscosity of the low-concentration suspended sediment, which acts as a transition layer between pure water and high-concentration sediment, is derived from the Chezy relation. A comparison of the numerical and experimental results demonstrates the high accuracy of the present numerical scheme. Using this validated numerical model, underwater landslides are simulated. Specifically, the effects of landslide deformation and compaction degree on the amplitudes of the surge wave crest and trough are investigated.

Niedawne tsunami na świecie (2020-2023) - porównania między modelowaniem a pomiarami

Few high magnitude earthquakes were generated worldwide in the last three and a half years, some of which triggered tsunami waves. We took into account all the events during the interval January 2020 - June 2023. There was a total of 15 earthquakes (5 in 2020, 5 in 2021, 2 in 2022, 2 in 2023) which lead to moderate and/or small tsunami waves (above 0.1 m), having magnitudes higher than 7, but also one earthquake with magnitude below 7 (6.8) which lead to very small tsunami waves generation. Not all the high magnitude earthquakes resulted in tsunami waves, depending on the depth, focal mechanism and / or other parameters (distance to shore, local conditions, etc.). From tsunami measurements point of view, we considered the most relevant ones and studied only the events that lead to measured waves higher than 0.5 m. The most significant ones are 5 events: 23rd of June 2020 (15:29 UTC), Near Coast of Oaxaca Mexico, M7.4 (maximum waves 0.68 m); 19th of October 2020 (20:55 UTC) South of Alaska M7.4 (maximum waves 0.76 m); 10th of February 2021 (13:20 UTC) Southeast of Loyalty Island, M7.7 (maximum waves 0.78 m); 4th of March 2021 (19:28 UTC) Kermadec Island region, M8.1 (maximum waves 0.56 m) and 19th of September 2022 (18:05 UTC), Coast of Michoacan Mexico M7.6 (maximum waves 0.79 m). We compared, in this paper, the values of sea level measurements with the results of the tsunami simulations, using the parameters of each earthquake (latitude, longitude, magnitude, depth, focal mechanism). The modeling simulations were accomplished using TRIDEC Cloud software, provided by the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany. When comparing the values between the two types of data (measured vs. computed), the results show that some simulations overestimate the measured values, others underestimate it. More studies are necessary for a better numerical assessment of sea level, in order to be more precise and closer to the real measurements. Future work might include using two or three different modeling software, for the same earthquake parameters, and comparing the results.

Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao

Abstract. This investigation addresses the tsunami inundation in Lima and Callao caused by the massive 1746 earthquake (Mw 9.0) along the Peruvian coast. Numerical modeling of the tsunami inundation processes in the nearshore includes strong nonlinear numerical terms. In a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave effect, two numerical codes are used, Tsunami-HySEA and TsunAWI, which both solve the shallow water (SW) equations but with different spatial approximations. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in inundated areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the SW equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. Particular attention is paid to the contribution of momentum advection, bottom friction, and volume conservation. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of inundation, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined. The sensitivity of the solution concerning the bottom friction parameter is also investigated, showing the effects of nonlinearity processes in the inundated areas, wave heights, current velocity, and the spatial structure variations shown in tsunami inundation maps.

Tsunami Runup Attenuation By Onshore Obstacles

In a time of climate emergency due to global warming, nature-based coastal defence systems are attractive solutions for flood mitigation and adaptation. Coastal forests such as mangroves have received a growing interest for their disaster mitigation effectiveness such as water flow energy dissipation, hence helping communities to become more resilient (Iimura & Tanaka, 2012). The role of coastal forests as a defence measure was highlighted in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, which claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people and displaced millions more across fourteen countries. Post-disaster damage observations indicated that forests, particularly mangroves, reduced the impact of the tsunami wave in some locations. As a result, significant international relief and reconstruction efforts focused on extensive forest replantation of coastlines (Satake, 2014). The role of coastal vegetation in reducing the severity of tsunami waves has been studied since. Several studies using physical modelling and computational approaches have provided insights into the wave attenuation provided by coastal vegetation, in terms of relationships between incident hydrodynamic conditions, forest configurations and wave height decay. However, there are still many gaps in knowledge, particularly in quantifying the efficacy of coastal forests in reducing inland hydrodynamic conditions (Tomiczek et al., 2020). It is therefore essential to improve the understanding on how wave heights, velocities and runup are influenced by the characteristics of the “obstacles”, e.g. the forest density, as well as the incident hydrodynamic conditions, e.g. the wave period. This study aims to address these questions conducting physical experiments using the novel pneumatic Tsunami Simulator (TS) developed by HR Wallingford together with UCL (Rossetto et al., 2011).

Tsunami Ping-Pong: Generating The Whole Tsunami Event

Considerable progress has been made over the past two decades in modelling representative tsunami waves in the laboratory. Developments such as the pneumatic tsunami simulator, TS, (Chandler et al, 2021), large wave paddles (Schimmels et al, 2016) and pump driven systems (Goseberg et al, 2013) have allowed full incident tsunami time series to be reproduced at large enough scales to provide reliable physical modelling data. These developments have enabled new insights into the time-varying influence of tsunami waves on run-up (McGovern et al, 2018), buildings (Foster et al, 2017), coastal structures (McGovern et al, 2022) and in particular the scour of sediments around these structures (McGovern et al, 2019). These advances are changing the way engineers and others design and plan for tsunami. However we are still only modelling ‘half the story’. In all existing published studies, the experiments simulated the effect of a single incident wave. We have so far ignored two significant elements of real tsunami events. Firstly, the rundown or return flow and secondly, the effect of multiple waves within a wave train. Both these aspects are difficult to model physically, particularly as the return flow and subsequent waves require a representative topography downstream of a test section. In most facilities there is not enough flume left to create this overland topography. In addition, changing this bathymetry to represent different scenarios such as a coastal plain or a small foreshore and an inland cliff, requires significant modelling effort and cost. To solve these challenges we propose the use of two TSs facing each other with the test section in between. This concept is shown in Figure 1. This extended abstract presents data from initial trials of the dual TS system conducted at HR Wallingford in 2023 during a three-day test window as part of the MAKEWAVES collaboration. The importance of simulating the return flow from a tsunami is demonstrated through its influence on scour around a rectangular building.

Physical Modelling Of Boulder Transport Under The Influence Of Tsunami Waves

Tsunami events are traditionally represented in the geological record by a sequence of fine-grained sediments, but increasingly coastal boulder deposits are being used as indicators of past tsunami events. The emplacement mechanism of many boulder deposits, however, is heavily debated and determining whether the inundation event was a tsunami or storm remains an unresolved challenge (Cox et al., 2020). Using physical experiments, we aim to achieve a better understanding of how tsunamis move coastal boulders. This knowledge will aid field geomorphologists in the identification of the emplacement mechanism for coastal boulder deposits and allow for the determination of wave parameters. In January 2023, physical experiments using the HR Wallingford Tsunami Simulator were completed as part of the MAKEWAVES collaboration. These experiments investigated the movement of a cuboid and irregular shaped boulder model when impacted by different tsunami waveforms on a plane beach. We propose new empirical formulae to describe relationships between transport distance and different tsunami waves.

2D FDM Simulation of Seismic Waves and Tsunamis Based on Improved Coupling Equations Under Gravity

To understand the characteristics of seismic waves and tsunamis recorded simultaneously by the ocean-bottom observation networks, the coupling between the solid Earth and the ocean has to be modeled in the presence of gravity. However, previous coupled simulations adopted approximate equations that did not fully incorporate the effects of gravity. In this study, we derived correctly linearized governing equations under gravity and compared them with those of previous studies. Numerical experiments were performed for a two-dimensional P-SV wavefield, using the finite difference method (FDM). To validate the accuracy of the calculated tsunamis, we computed the theoretical tsunami dispersion relation using a propagator matrix and compared it with our results and those of previous studies. We found that our proposed method provided more accurate results than those of previous studies, particularly in the short-period band. We also investigated the applicability of the proposed method to distant tsunamis by examining the difference between calculated and theoretical tsunami phase velocities in the long-period band. The proposed formulation provides accurate results that properly incorporate gravity into the simultaneous simulation of seismic waves and tsunamis.

Simulation of the Mediterranean tsunami generated by the Mw 6.0 event offshore Bejaia (Algeria) on 18 March 2021

SUMMARY On 18 March 2021 an earthquake of magnitude Mw = 6.0 occurred offshore the Algerian coasts and generated a tsunami with offshore amplitudes smaller than a few millimetres crossing the western Mediterranean Sea. The objective of this study is threefold: first, to determine whether seismic sources calculated in the context of tsunami early warning are relevant; secondly, to determine whether tsunami simulations are able to reproduce tide-gauge observations and thirdly, to define the sensitivity of simulations to the grid resolutions and tsunami parameters. In the Mediterranean Sea, a very small number of available coastal tide gauges recorded the tsunami. Among them, a few French tide gauge stations recorded water waves with amplitudes smaller than a few centimetres and with periods ranging from 5 to 20 min associated to harbour or bay resonances. Numerical simulations of the tsunami are performed by the operational code Taitoko for seven different source fault models. Three of them allow for a rapid source detection and characterization in the framework of tsunami warning at CENALT (Centre National d'Alerte aux Tsunamis, France). The integrated code Taitoko uses a system of multiple nested grids. Standard Boussinesq equations are solved in the Mediterranean grid, whereas non-linear shallow water equations are solved in coastal and harbour grids with 25 and 5 m resolutions, respectively. Whatever the fault model, the observed time-series of water heights are reproduced satisfactorily both in phase and amplitude by the model at Nice and Monaco but poorly at Port Mahon (Minorca) and Toulon.

Landslide-induced tsunami simulation based on progressive landslide-shallow water equation coupling model: 1946 Aleutian tsunami case

Landslide-induced tsunami simulation based on progressive landslide-shallow water equation coupling model: 1946 Aleutian tsunami case