True Score Research Articles

Agential realism as an alternative philosophy of science perspective for quantitative psychology

This paper introduces Karen Barad’s philosophical framework of agential realism as an alternative philosophy of science perspective for quantitative psychology and measurement. Agential realism offers a rethinking of the research object, measurement process and outcome, causality, and the researcher’s responsibility by proposing an ethico-epistem-ontological understanding of material-discursive practices that co-construct our world. The contemporary, canonical underlying philosophy of science perspective of quantitative psychology entails entity realism, a difference between ontic existence and epistemic approaches, complete causality, and determinism. Consequently, the researcher has no responsibility for the characteristics of a research object. The paper introduces agential realism and its assumptions about rejecting entity realism but a particular understanding of phenomena, the entanglement of ontic existence and epistemic approaches, and the researcher’s role in co-creating an outcome. A reworking of the concept of causality implies newly emerging possibilities for realizations. Subsequently, the paper addresses four consequences of applying agential realism in quantitative psychology. (1) If there is indeterminacy in every phenomenon, researchers do not search for one true score but assume a realization potential, which has implications for comparisons and replications. (2) If configurations are part of things-in-phenomena, then context does not work as a third variable; instead, all ‘parts’ are co-creators. This entanglement must be considered in replications instead of trying to eliminate its impact. (3) Agential realism encompasses the researchers’ responsibility to justify decisions made in a research project and to clarify ethics. (4) Overall, agential realism alters the research endeavor by asking new questions and interpreting research outcomes differently. Further directions point towards concrete tasks like methodological questions and the necessity within psychology to elaborate further on the conceptualizations initiated by Barad.

Personality trait change during adolescence as a predictor of later substance use, depressive symptoms, and perceived maturity

Adolescence is considered a critical period for understanding how individuals develop their self-concepts and personality dispositions, with the assumption that these changes presage important life outcomes. However, this tenet has been infrequently tested; few studies have included rigorous, frequent assessment of personality traits during adolescence, particularly from multiple rater perspectives. The current study utilizes data from the Oregon Youth Substance Use Project (OYSUP; N = 951), which followed students throughout their school years into early adulthood. Student- and teacher-reports of the Big Five personality traits were assessed yearly from grades 7 to 10, as well as drug use, well-being, and maturity outcomes later in emerging adulthood. Using latent growth curve models and true intraindividual change score models, results indicated that youth exhibited relative stability but significant trait changes on multiple domains during adolescence. Moreover, individual differences in these changes predicted likelihood for drug use and depressive symptoms later, as well as the students’ perceptions of their status as being developed adults, even when accounting for initial trait levels. Findings differed somewhat between youth- and teacher-reports of personality, with both demonstrating value for predicting young adult outcomes, indicating multiple perspectives of personality development are important.

Comparative Analysis of Psychometric Frameworks and Properties of Scores from Autogenerated Test Forms

AbstractThis paper explores the psychometric properties of scores derived from autogenerated test forms by introducing three conceptual frameworks: Alternate Test Forms, Randomly Parallel Forms, and Approximately Parallel Forms. Each framework provides a distinct perspective on score comparability, definitions of true score and standard error of measurement (SEM), and the necessity of equating. Through a simulation study, we illustrate how these frameworks compare in terms of true scores and SEMs, while also assessing the impact of equating on score comparability across varying levels of form variability. Ultimately, this study seeks to lay the groundwork for implementing scoring practices in large‐scale standardized assessments that use autogenerated forms.

Impacts of Data Preprocessing and Sampling Techniques on Solar Flare Prediction from Multivariate Time Series Data of Photospheric Magnetic Field Parameters

The accurate prediction of solar flares is crucial due to their risks to astronauts, space equipment, and satellite communication systems. Our research enhances solar flare prediction by employing sophisticated data preprocessing and sampling techniques for the Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) data set, a rich source of multivariate time series data of solar active regions. Our study adopts a multifaceted approach encompassing four key methodologies. Initially, we address over 10 million missing values in the SWAN-SF data set through our innovative imputation technique called fast Pearson correlation-based k-nearest neighbors imputation. Subsequently, we propose a precise normalization technique, called LSBZM normalization, tailored for time series data, merging various strategies (log, square root, Box–Cox, Z-score, and min–max) to uniformly scale the data set's 24 attributes (photospheric magnetic field parameters), addressing issues such as skewness. We also explore the “near decision boundary sample removal” technique to enhance the classification performance of the data set by effectively resolving the challenge of class overlap. Finally, a pivotal aspect of our research is a thorough evaluation of diverse oversampling and undersampling methods, including SMOTE, ADASYN, Gaussian noise injection, TimeGAN, Tomek links, and random undersampling, to counter the severe imbalance in the SWAN-SF data set, notably a 60:1 ratio of major (X and M) to minor (C, B, and FQ) flaring events in binary classification. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, we use eight classification algorithms, including advanced deep-learning-based architectures. Our analysis shows significant true skill statistic scores, underscoring the importance of data preprocessing and sampling in time-series-based solar flare prediction.

Causal Attention Deep-learning Model for Solar Flare Forecasting

Solar flares originate from the sudden release of energy stored in the magnetic field of the active region on the Sun, but the trigger for flares is still uncertain. Currently, deep-learning-based solar flare prediction models have achieved good results and are widely recognized. However, these models focus more on data correlation rather than causality. An ideal flare prediction model should probe into the causes/triggers of solar flares, and diagnose the precursors of flares rather than just correlation analysis. To extract more informative precursors of flares from magnetograms, while suppressing the interference of confounding factors, a causal attention module is introduced to disentangle causal and confounder features from the input features. To address the problem of imbalanced positive and negative samples in the data set, an adaptive data set split mechanism is proposed. It divides the data set into several balanced subsets of positive and negative samples, and dynamically adjusts the subsets according to the model’s prediction results during the training process. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed model achieves 4.08%, 8.38%, and 2.19% higher accuracy, true skill score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve than the baseline model. Additionally, the class-specific heatmaps by using the gradient-weighted class activation mapping method reveal that our proposed model generally focuses on the polarity inverse line of active regions, well in line with theoretical study.

Decomposing the True Score Variance in Rated Responses to Divergent Thinking-Tasks for Assessing Creativity: A Multitrait-Multimethod Analysis.

It is shown how the Correlated Traits Correlated Methods Minus One (CTC(M - 1)) Multitrait-Multimethod model for cross-classified data can be modified and applied to divergent thinking (DT)-task responses scored for miscellaneous aspects of creative quality by several raters. In contrast to previous Confirmatory Factor Analysis approaches to analyzing DT-tasks, this model explicitly takes the cross-classified data structure resulting from the employment of raters into account and decomposes the true score variance into target-specific, DT-task object-specific, rater-specific, and rater-target interaction-specific components. This enables the computation of meaningful measurement error-free relative variance-parameters such as trait-consistency, object-method specificity, rater specificity, rater-target interaction specificity, and model-implied intra-class correlations. In the empirical application with alternate uses tasks as DT-measures, the model is estimated using Bayesian statistics. The results are compared to the results yielded with a simplified version of the model, once estimated with Bayesian statistics and once estimated with the maximum likelihood method. The results show high trait-correlations and low consistency across DT-measures which indicates more heterogeneity across the DT-measurement instruments than across different creativity aspects. Substantive deliberations and further modifications, extensions, useful applications, and limitations of the model are discussed.

Deployment of an Artificial Intelligence Histology Tool to Aid Qualitative Assessment of Histopathology Using the Nancy Histopathology Index in Ulcerative Colitis.

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease characterized by increased stool frequency, rectal bleeding, and urgency. To streamline the quantitative assessment of histopathology using the Nancy Index in UC patients, we developed a novel artificial intelligence (AI) tool based on deep learning and tested it in a proof-of-concept trial. In this study, we report the performance of a modified version of the AI tool. Nine sites from 6 countries were included. Patients were aged ≥18 years and had UC. Slides were prepared with hematoxylin and eosin staining. A total of 791 images were divided into 2 groups: 630 for training the tool and 161 for testing vs expert histopathologist assessment. The refined AI histology tool utilized a 4-neural network structure to characterize images into a series of cell and tissue type combinations and locations, and then 1 classifier module assigned a Nancy Index score. In comparison with the proof-of-concept tool, each feature demonstrated an improvement in accuracy. Confusion matrix analysis demonstrated an 80% correlation between predicted and true labels for Nancy scores of 0 or 4; a 96% correlation for a true score of 0 being predicted as 0 or 1; and a 100% correlation for a true score of 2 being predicted as 2 or 3. The Nancy metric (which evaluated Nancy Index prediction) was 74.9% compared with 72.3% for the proof-of-concept model. We have developed a modified AI histology tool in UC that correlates highly with histopathologists' assessments and suggests promising potential for its clinical application.

Machine learning predicts acute respiratory failure in pancreatitis patients: A retrospective study

PurposeThe purpose of the research is to design an algorithm to predict the occurrence of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). MethodsWe collected data on patients with AP in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. The enrolled observations were randomly divided into a 70 % training cohort and a 30 % validation cohort, and the observations in the training cohort were divided into ARF and non-ARF groups. Feature engineering was conducted using random forest (RF) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods in the training cohort. The model building included logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbours (KNN), naive bayes (NB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Parameters for model evaluation include receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, precision-recall curve (PRC), calibration curves, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), true positive rate (TPR), true negative rate (TNR), accuracy (ACC) and F1 score. ResultsAmong 4527 patients, 445 patients (9.8 %) experienced ARF. Ca, ALB, GLR, WBC, AG and BUN have been included in the prediction model as features for predicting ARF. The AUC of XGBoost were 0.86 (95 %CI 0.84–0.88) and 0.87 (95 %CI 0.84–0.90) in the training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, XGBoost demonstrates a true positive rate (TPR) of 0.662, a true negative rate (TNR) of 0.884, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.380, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.960, an accuracy (ACC) of 0.862, and an F1 score of 0.483. In the validation cohort, XGBoost shows a TPR of 0.620, a TNR of 0.895, a PPV of 0.399, an NPV of 0.955, an ACC of 0.867, and an F1 score of 0.486. ConclusionThe XGBOOST model demonstrates good discriminatory ability, which enables clinicians to ascertain the probability of developing ARF in AP patients.

Preoperative cognitive profile predictive of cognitive decline after subthalamic deep brain stimulation in Parkinson's disease.

Cognitive decline represents a severe non-motor symptom of Parkinson's disease (PD) that can significantly reduce the benefits of subthalamic deep brain stimulation (STN DBS). Here, we aimed to describe post-surgery cognitive decline and identify pre-surgery cognitive profile associated with faster decline in STN DBS-treated PD patients. A retrospective observational study of 126 PD patients treated by STN DBS combined with oral dopaminergic therapy followed for 3.54 years on average (SD=2.32) with repeated assessments of cognition was conducted. Pre-surgery cognitive profile was obtained via a comprehensive neuropsychological examination and data analysed using exploratory factor analysis and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. On the whole, we observed a mild annual cognitive decline of 0.90 points from a total of 144 points in the Mattis Dementia Rating Scale (95% posterior probability interval [-1.19, -0.62]) with high inter-individual variability. However, true score changes did not reach previously reported reliable change cut-offs. Executive deficit was the only pre-surgery cognitive variable to reliably predict the rate of post-surgery cognitive decline. On the other hand, exploratory analysis of electrode localization did not yield any statistically clear results. Overall, our data and models imply mild gradual average annual post-surgery cognitive decline with high inter-individual variability in STN DBS-treated PD patients. Nonetheless, patients with worse long-term cognitive prognosis can be reliably identified via pre-surgery examination of executive functions. To further increase the utility of our results, we demonstrate how our models can help with disentangling true score changes from measurement error in future studies of post-surgery cognitive changes.

Step feature line extraction from large-scale point clouds of open-pit mine based on structural characteristics

High-precision step feature lines play a crucial role in open-pit mine design, production scheduling, mining volume calculations, road network planning, and slope maintenance. Compared with the feature lines of the geometric model, step feature lines are more irregular, complex, higher in density, and richer in detail. In this study, a novel technique for extracting step feature line from large-scale point clouds of open-pit mine by leveraging structural attributes, that is, SFLE_OPM (Step Feature Line Extraction for Open-Pit Mine), is proposed. First, we adopt the k-dimensional tree (KD-tree) resampling method to reduce the point-cloud density while retaining point-cloud features and utilize bilateral filtering for denoising. Second, we use Point Cloud Properties Network (PCPNET) to estimate the normal, calculate the slope and aspect, and then filter them. We then apply morphological operations to the step surface and obtain more continuous and smoother slope lines. In addition, we construct an Open-Pit Mine Step Feature Line (OPMSFL) dataset and benchmarked SFLE_OPM, achieving an accuracy score of 89.31% and true positive rate score of 80.18%. The results demonstrate that our method yields a higher extraction accuracy and precision than most of the existing methods. Our dataset is available at https://github.com/OPMDataSets/OPMSFL.

Lung ultrasound among Expert operator’S: ScOring and iNter-rater reliability analysis (LESSON study) a secondary COWS study analysis from ITALUS group

BackgroundLung ultrasonography (LUS) is a non-invasive imaging method used to diagnose and monitor conditions such as pulmonary edema, pneumonia, and pneumothorax. It is precious where other imaging techniques like CT scan or chest X-rays are of limited access, especially in low- and middle-income countries with reduced resources. Furthermore, LUS reduces radiation exposure and its related blood cancer adverse events, which is particularly relevant in children and young subjects. The score obtained with LUS allows semi-quantification of regional loss of aeration, and it can provide a valuable and reliable assessment of the severity of most respiratory diseases. However, inter-observer reliability of the score has never been systematically assessed. This study aims to assess experienced LUS operators’ agreement on a sample of video clips showing predefined findings.MethodsTwenty-five anonymized video clips comprehensively depicting the different values of LUS score were shown to renowned LUS experts blinded to patients’ clinical data and the study’s aims using an online form. Clips were acquired from five different ultrasound machines. Fleiss-Cohen weighted kappa was used to evaluate experts’ agreement.ResultsOver a period of 3 months, 20 experienced operators completed the assessment. Most worked in the ICU (10), ED (6), HDU (2), cardiology ward (1), or obstetric/gynecology department (1). The proportional LUS score mean was 15.3 (SD 1.6). Inter-rater agreement varied: 6 clips had full agreement, 3 had 19 out of 20 raters agreeing, and 3 had 18 agreeing, while the remaining 13 had 17 or fewer people agreeing on the assigned score. Scores 0 and score 3 were more reproducible than scores 1 and 2. Fleiss’ Kappa for overall answers was 0.87 (95% CI 0.815–0.931, p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe inter-rater agreement between experienced LUS operators is very high, although not perfect. The strong agreement and the small variance enable us to say that a 20% tolerance around a measured value of a LUS score is a reliable estimate of the patient's true LUS score, resulting in reduced variability in score interpretation and greater confidence in its clinical use.

Reliability of a probabilistic knowledge structure

Indexes for estimating the overall reliability of a test in the framework of knowledge space theory (KST) are proposed and analyzed. First, the possibility of applying in KST the existing classical test theory (CTT) methods, based on the ratio between the true score variance and the total variance of the measure, has been explored. However, these methods are not suitable because in KST error and true score are not independent. Therefore, two new indexes based on the concepts of entropy and conditional entropy are developed. One index is used to estimate the reliability of the response pattern given the knowledge state, while the second one refers to the reliability of the estimated knowledge state of a person. Some theoretical considerations as well as simulations and an empirical example on real data are provided within a study of the behavior of these indexes under a certain number of different conditions.

Relevance of Classical Test Theory in the Assessment of Learning in Tertiary Institutions in Nigeria

Over the years, measurement experts have been captivated by the description of students, which has resulted in the development of test theories such as Item Response Theory and Classical Test Theory. The traditional method of item analysis, known as "Classical Test Theory," asserts that an individual's observed score on an exam is equal to their true score and an error score, with all items in the test contributing equally to student performance. Assessment, in this context, refers to any method used to gauge a learner's current knowledge. The significance of Classical Test Theory in teaching, learning, and evaluating learning outcomes has spurred academic inquiry. This paper explored the application of Classical Test Theory in tertiary institution assessment, emphasizing its relevance in evaluating learning outcomes. Some notable points included the simplicity of mathematical procedures in classical test analysis and the straightforwardness of model parameter estimation. Additionally, this paper advocated for the utilization of statistical sophistication inherent in Classical Test Theory to interpret undergraduates' performance effectively. Lecturers were encouraged to familiarize themselves with its application to provide meaningful insights into students' performance.

Improved theoretical guarantee for rank aggregation via spectral method

Abstract Given pairwise comparisons between multiple items, how to rank them so that the ranking matches the observations? This problem, known as rank aggregation, has found many applications in sports, recommendation systems and other web applications. We focus on the ranking problem under the Erdös–Rényi outliers model: only a subset of pairwise comparisons is observed, being either clean or corrupted copies of the true score differences. We investigate the spectral ranking algorithms that are based on unnormalized and normalized data matrices. The key is to understand their performance in recovering the underlying scores of each item from the observed data. This reduces to deriving an entry-wise perturbation error bound between the top eigenvectors of the unnormalized/normalized data matrix and its population counterpart. By using the leave-one-out technique, we provide a sharper $\ell _{\infty }$-norm perturbation bound of the eigenvectors and derive an error bound on the maximum displacement for each item, with only $O(n\log n)$ samples. In addition, we also derive the sample complexity to perform top-$K$ ranking under mild assumptions. Our theoretical analysis improves upon the state-of-the-art results in terms of sample complexity, and our numerical experiments confirm these theoretical findings.

Performance Analyzes of Thermodynamic Indices and Atmospheric Parameters in Thunderstorm and Non-thunderstorm Days in Istanbul, Turkey

This study aims to analyze the thunderstorm (TS) events in the megacity Istanbul by using thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters for the period of 2001–2022. It was determined that TS events did not show any trend on an annual basis, mostly (%69) occurred in the warm season (May–September), and mostly (%93) lasted for a few hours (0–3 h). The thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters used in the study are Showalter Index (SI), Lifted Index (LI), Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT), K-Index (KI), Totals Totals Index (TTI), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), and Bulk Richardson Number (BRN). Annual and seasonal analyzes of all indices and parameters were performed for TS and non-TS events. Significant differences were found in both average, maximum, and minimum values. The Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Miss Rate (MR), Critical Success Index (CIS), Hiedke Skill Score (HSS), and True Skill Score (TSS) were used to analyze the success of the threshold values presented in the literature in detecting TS events. Then, the seasonal successes of these threshold values were tested. It was observed that the performance of the selected indices varied across seasons. The highest predictive skill was generally observed during the summer season, with the POD value ranging between 0.58 and 0.97 and the TSS value varying between 0.32 and 0.57. Conversely, the lowest predictive skill was typically observed during the winter season, where the POD value ranged from 0.00 to 0.75 and the TSS value varied between 0.00 and 0.40. The ideal threshold values were determined for indices and parameters by increasing or decreasing the existing threshold values at certain rates. Success increases of up to 15% in skill scores for the proposed threshold values.

Effectiveness of large language models in automated evaluation of argumentative essays: finetuning vs. zero-shot prompting

To address the long-standing challenge facing traditional automated writing evaluation (AWE) systems in assessing higher-order thinking, this study built an AWE system for scoring argumentative essays by finetuning the GPT-3.5 Large Language Model. The system’s effectiveness was compared with that of the non-finetuned GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 base models via zero-shot prompting, which involves applying the model to perform tasks without any prior specific training or examples on those tasks. The dataset used was the TOEFL Public Writing Dataset provided by Education Testing Service (ETS), containing 480 argumentative essays with ground truth scores under two essay prompts. Three finetuned models were generated: two finetuned exclusively on either prompt and one on both. All finetuned and base models were used to score the remaining essays after finetuning and their scoring effectiveness was compared with ground truth scores, i.e., benchmark scores assigned by ETS-trained human raters. The impact of the variety of finetuning prompts and the robustness of finetuned models were also explored. Results showed a 100% consistency of all models in two scoring sessions. More importantly, the finetuned models significantly outperformed the base models in accuracy and reliability. The best-performing model, finetuned on prompt 1, showed an RMSE of 0.57, a percentage agreement (score discrepancy ≤ 0.5) of 84.72% and a QWK of 0.78. Further, the model finetuned on both prompts did not exhibit enhanced performance, and the two models finetuned on one prompt remained robust when scoring essays from the alternative prompt. These results suggest (1) task-specific finetuning for AWE is beneficial; (2) finetuning does not require a large variety of essay prompts; and (3) fine-tuned models are robust to unseen essays.

Bias-aware ranking from pairwise comparisons

Human feedback is often used, either directly or indirectly, as input to algorithmic decision making. However, humans are biased: if the algorithm that takes as input the human feedback does not control for potential biases, this might result in biased algorithmic decision making, which can have a tangible impact on people’s lives. In this paper, we study how to detect and correct for evaluators’ bias in the task of ranking people (or items) from pairwise comparisons. Specifically, we assume we are given pairwise comparisons of the items to be ranked produced by a set of evaluators. While the pairwise assessments of the evaluators should reflect to a certain extent the latent (unobservable) true quality scores of the items, they might be affected by each evaluator’s own bias against, or in favor, of some groups of items. By detecting and amending evaluators’ biases, we aim to produce a ranking of the items that is, as much as possible, in accordance with the ranking one would produce by having access to the latent quality scores. Our proposal is a novel method that extends the classic Bradley-Terry model by having a bias parameter for each evaluator which distorts the true quality score of each item, depending on the group the item belongs to. Thanks to the simplicity of the model, we are able to write explicitly its log-likelihood w.r.t. the parameters (i.e., items’ latent scores and evaluators’ bias) and optimize by means of the alternating approach. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world data confirm that our method is able to reconstruct the bias of each single evaluator extremely well and thus to outperform several non-trivial competitors in the task of producing a ranking which is as much as possible close to the unbiased ranking.

Detecting the symptoms of Parkinson’s disease with non-standard video

BackgroundNeurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease (PD), necessitate frequent clinical visits and monitoring to identify changes in motor symptoms and provide appropriate care. By applying machine learning techniques to video data, automated video analysis has emerged as a promising approach to track and analyze motor symptoms, which could facilitate more timely intervention. However, existing solutions often rely on specialized equipment and recording procedures, which limits their usability in unstructured settings like the home. In this study, we developed a method to detect PD symptoms from unstructured videos of clinical assessments, without the need for specialized equipment or recording procedures.MethodsTwenty-eight individuals with Parkinson’s disease completed a video-recorded motor examination that included the finger-to-nose and hand pronation-supination tasks. Clinical staff provided ground truth scores for the level of Parkinsonian symptoms present. For each video, we used a pre-existing model called PIXIE to measure the location of several joints on the person’s body and quantify how they were moving. Features derived from the joint angles and trajectories, designed to be robust to recording angle, were then used to train two types of machine-learning classifiers (random forests and support vector machines) to detect the presence of PD symptoms.ResultsThe support vector machine trained on the finger-to-nose task had an F1 score of 0.93 while the random forest trained on the same task yielded an F1 score of 0.85. The support vector machine and random forest trained on the hand pronation-supination task had F1 scores of 0.20 and 0.33, respectively.ConclusionThese results demonstrate the feasibility of developing video analysis tools to track motor symptoms across variable perspectives. These tools do not work equally well for all tasks, however. This technology has the potential to overcome barriers to access for many individuals with degenerative neurological diseases like PD, providing them with a more convenient and timely method to monitor symptom progression, without requiring a structured video recording procedure. Ultimately, more frequent and objective home assessments of motor function could enable more precise telehealth optimization of interventions to improve clinical outcomes inside and outside of the clinic.

Automated scoring of glomerular injury in TNS2-deficient nephropathy.

Several artificial intelligence (AI) systems have been developed for glomerular pathology analysis in clinical settings. However, the application of AI systems in nonclinical fields remains limited. In this study, we trained a convolutional neural network model, which is an AI algorithm, to classify the severity of Tensin 2 (TNS2)-deficient nephropathy into seven categories. A dataset consisting of 803 glomerular images was generated from kidney sections of TNS2-deficient and wild-type mice. Manual evaluations of the images were conducted to assess their glomerular injury scores. The trained AI achieved approximately 70% accuracy in predicting the glomerular injury score for TNS2-deficient nephropathy. However, the AI achieved approximately 100% accuracy when considering predictions within one score of the true label as correct. The AI's predicted mean score closely matched the true mean score. In conclusion, while the AI model may not replace human judgment entirely, it can serve as a reliable second assessor in scoring glomerular injury, offering potential benefits in enhancing the accuracy and objectivity of such assessments.

The role of soil moisture-temperature coupling for the 2018 Northern European heatwave in a subseasonal forecast

This study investigates the predictability of the 2018 Northern Europe heatwave using the GloSea5 forecast model from the perspective of land-atmosphere interactions. We focus on an inverse relationship wherein soil drying leads to increased temperatures and the model's ability to simulate this hypersensitivity in the soil moisture-temperature coupling on the dry side of a breakpoint defined as the soil moisture threshold below which land feedbacks nonlinearly amplify extreme heat. When evaluating forecast model performance in predicting this heatwave, we compare deterministic forecast scores (Hit Rate (HR) and True Skill Score (TSS)) for whether model Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) falls within the hypersensitive regime. GloSea5 exhibits enhanced prediction skill for the extreme heat event when the modelled soil moisture is within the hypersensitive regime. To understand the skill of the heatwave forecast for hit and missed cases of capturing SSM below the breakpoint, we first evaluate the climatological model performance for the water- and energy-limited processes, and then perform a comparison classified by whether SSM verifies on the dry side of the wilting point. The composite analysis demonstrates that the reproducibility of the breakpoint is tied to an improvement in climatological land coupling processes, mainly for classification in the water-limited coupling regime. Therefore, the results suggest that the process-based connection between soil moisture and temperature is a potential source for improving heatwave forecasts on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales.