Performance Analyzes of Thermodynamic Indices and Atmospheric Parameters in Thunderstorm and Non-thunderstorm Days in Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the thunderstorm (TS) events in the megacity Istanbul by using thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters for the period of 2001–2022. It was determined that TS events did not show any trend on an annual basis, mostly (%69) occurred in the warm season (May–September), and mostly (%93) lasted for a few hours (0–3 h). The thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters used in the study are Showalter Index (SI), Lifted Index (LI), Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT), K-Index (KI), Totals Totals Index (TTI), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), and Bulk Richardson Number (BRN). Annual and seasonal analyzes of all indices and parameters were performed for TS and non-TS events. Significant differences were found in both average, maximum, and minimum values. The Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Miss Rate (MR), Critical Success Index (CIS), Hiedke Skill Score (HSS), and True Skill Score (TSS) were used to analyze the success of the threshold values presented in the literature in detecting TS events. Then, the seasonal successes of these threshold values were tested. It was observed that the performance of the selected indices varied across seasons. The highest predictive skill was generally observed during the summer season, with the POD value ranging between 0.58 and 0.97 and the TSS value varying between 0.32 and 0.57. Conversely, the lowest predictive skill was typically observed during the winter season, where the POD value ranged from 0.00 to 0.75 and the TSS value varied between 0.00 and 0.40. The ideal threshold values were determined for indices and parameters by increasing or decreasing the existing threshold values at certain rates. Success increases of up to 15% in skill scores for the proposed threshold values.