Tropospheric Water Vapor Research Articles

Depolarization calibration and measurements using the CANDAC Rayleigh–Mie–Raman lidar at Eureka, Canada

Abstract. The Canadian Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Change (CANDAC) Rayleigh–Mie–Raman lidar (CRL) at Eureka, Nunavut, has measured tropospheric clouds, aerosols, and water vapour since 2007. In remote and meteorologically significant locations, such as the Canadian High Arctic, the ability to add new measurement capability to an existing well-tested facility is extremely valuable. In 2010, linear depolarization 532 nm measurement hardware was installed in the lidar's receiver. To minimize disruption in the existing lidar channels and to preserve their existing characterization so far as is possible, the depolarization hardware was placed near the end of the receiver cascade. The upstream optics already in place were not optimized for preserving the polarization of received light. Calibrations and Mueller matrix calculations are used to determine and mitigate the contribution of these upstream optics on the depolarization measurements. The results show that with appropriate calibration, indications of cloud particle phase (ice vs. water) through the use of the depolarization parameter are now possible to a precision of ±0.05 absolute uncertainty ( ≤ 10 % relative uncertainty) within clouds at time and altitude resolutions of 5 min and 37.5 m respectively, with higher precision and higher resolution possible in select cases. The uncertainty is somewhat larger outside of clouds at the same altitude, typically with absolute uncertainty ≤ 0.1. Monitoring changes in Arctic cloud composition, including particle phase, is essential for an improved understanding of the changing climate locally and globally.

Profiling water vapor mixing ratios in Finland by means of a Raman lidar, a satellite and a model

Abstract. We present tropospheric water vapor profiles measured with a Raman lidar during three field campaigns held in Finland. Co-located radio soundings are available throughout the period for the calibration of the lidar signals. We investigate the possibility of calibrating the lidar water vapor profiles in the absence of co-existing on-site soundings using water vapor profiles from the combined Advanced InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) satellite product; the Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement INternational and High Resolution Limited Area Model (ALADIN/HIRLAM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, and the nearest radio sounding station located 100 km away from the lidar site (only for the permanent location of the lidar). The uncertainties of the calibration factor derived from the soundings, the satellite and the model data are < 2.8, 7.4 and 3.9 %, respectively. We also include water vapor mixing ratio intercomparisons between the radio soundings and the various instruments/model for the period of the campaigns. A good agreement is observed for all comparisons with relative errors that do not exceed 50 % up to 8 km altitude in most cases. A 4-year seasonal analysis of vertical water vapor is also presented for the Kuopio site in Finland. During winter months, the air in Kuopio is dry (1.15±0.40 g kg−1); during summer it is wet (5.54±1.02 g kg−1); and at other times, the air is in an intermediate state. These are averaged values over the lowest 2 km in the atmosphere. Above that height a quick decrease in water vapor mixing ratios is observed, except during summer months where favorable atmospheric conditions enable higher mixing ratio values at higher altitudes. Lastly, the seasonal change in disagreement between the lidar and the model has been studied. The analysis showed that, on average, the model underestimates water vapor mixing ratios at high altitudes during spring and summer.

Importance of depth and intensity of convection on the isotopic composition of water vapor as seen from IASI and TES δD observations

We use tropical observations of the water vapor isotopic composition, derived from IASI and TES spaceborne measurements, to show that the isotopic composition of water vapor in the free troposphere is sensitive to both the depth and the intensity of convection. We find that for any given precipitation intensity, vapor associated with deep convection is isotopically depleted relative to vapor associated with shallow convection. The intensity of precipitation also plays a role as for any given depth of convection, the relative enrichment of water vapor decreases as the intensity of precipitation increases. Shallow convection, via the uplifting of enriched boundary layer air into the free troposphere and the convective detrainment, enriches the free troposphere. In contrast, deep convection is associated with processes that deplete the water vapor in the free troposphere, such as rain re-evaporation. The results of this study allow for a better identification of the parameters controlling the isotopic composition of the free troposphere and indicate that the isotopic composition of water vapor can be used to evaluate the relative contributions of shallow and deep convection in global models.

Emerging Technologies and Synergies for Airborne and Space-Based Measurements of Water Vapor Profiles

A deeper understanding of how clouds will respond to a warming climate is one of the outstanding challenges in climate science. Uncertainties in the response of clouds, and particularly shallow clouds, have been identified as the dominant source of the discrepancy in model estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. As the community gains a deeper understanding of the many processes involved, there is a growing appreciation of the critical role played by fluctuations in water vapor and the coupling of water vapor and atmospheric circulations. Reduction of uncertainties in cloud-climate feedbacks and convection initiation as well as improved understanding of processes governing these effects will result from profiling of water vapor in the lower troposphere with improved accuracy and vertical resolution compared to existing airborne and space-based measurements. This paper highlights new technologies and improved measurement approaches for measuring lower tropospheric water vapor and their expected added value to current observations. Those include differential absorption lidar and radar, microwave occultation between low-Earth orbiters, and hyperspectral microwave remote sensing. Each methodology is briefly explained, and measurement capabilities as well as the current technological readiness for aircraft and satellite implementation are specified. Potential synergies between the technologies are discussed, actual examples hereof are given, and future perspectives are explored. Based on technical maturity and the foreseen near-mid-term development path of the various discussed measurement approaches, we find that improved measurements of water vapor throughout the troposphere would greatly benefit from the combination of differential absorption lidar focusing on the lower troposphere with passive remote sensors constraining the upper-tropospheric humidity.

The Representation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Over Low-Latitude Oceans in (Re-)analysis: Errors, Impacts, and the Ability to Exploit Current and Prospective Observations

This paper addresses the representation of lower tropospheric water vapor in the meteorological analyses—fully detailed estimates of atmospheric state—providing the wide temporal and spatial coverage used in many process studies. Analyses are produced in a cycle combining short forecasts from initial conditions with data assimilation that optimally estimates the state of the atmosphere from the previous forecasts and new observations, providing initial conditions for the next set of forecasts. Estimates of water vapor are among the less certain aspects of the state because the quantity poses special challenges for data assimilation while being particularly sensitive to the details of model parameterizations. Over remote tropical oceans observations of water vapor come from two sources: passive observations at microwave or infrared wavelengths that provide relatively strong constraints over large areas on column-integrated moisture but relatively coarse vertical resolution, and occultations of Global Positioning System provide much higher accuracy and vertical resolution but are relatively spatially coarse. Over low-latitude oceans, experiences with two systems suggest that current analyses reproduce much of the large-scale variability in integrated water vapor but have systematic errors in the representation of the boundary layer with compensating errors in the free troposphere; these errors introduce errors of order 10% in radiative heating rates through the free troposphere. New observations, such as might be obtained by future observing systems, improve the estimates of water vapor but this improvement is lost relatively quickly, suggesting that exploiting better observations will require targeted improvements to global forecast models.

Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP.

Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields. The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses. In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

Unified Spectrum of Tropical Rainfall and Waves in a Simple Stochastic Model

AbstractIn the tropics, rainfall is coupled with atmospheric dynamics in ways that are not fully understood, and often different mechanisms are proposed to underlie different modes of variability. Here it is shown that a unified model with a simple form can produce many different modes of variability. In particular, this includes the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The model predicts the length scales, time scales, structures, and spatiotemporal variability of these modes reasonably well for a simple model. Furthermore, the model produces a background spectrum of rainfall that resembles spatiotemporal red noise and is only weakly coupled with wave dynamics. The full spectrum is also shown to be shaped by antiresonance, whereby rainfall oscillations are prevented from occurring at the oscillation frequencies of dry waves. To produce all of these aspects simultaneously, a key factor is differing roles of lower and middle tropospheric water vapor.

Airborne Lidar Observations of Water Vapor Variability in Tropical Shallow Convective Environment

An airborne downward-pointing water vapor lidar provides two-dimensional, simultaneous curtains of atmospheric backscatter and humidity along the flight track with high accuracy and spatial resolution. In order to improve the knowledge on the coupling between clouds, circulation and climate in the trade wind region, the DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fu¨ r Luft- und Raumfahrt) water vapor lidar was operated on board the German research aircraft HALO during the NARVAL (Next Generation Aircraft Remote Sensing for Validation Studies) field experiment in December 2013. Out of the wealth of about 30 flight hours or 25,000 km of data over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean east of Barbados, three ~ 2-h-long, representative segments from different flights were selected. Analyses of Meteosat Second Generation images and dropsondes complement this case study. All observations indicate a high heterogeneity of the humidity in the lowest 4 km of the tropical troposphere, as well as of the depth of the cloud (1–2 km thick) and sub-cloud layer (~ 1 km thick). At the winter trade inversion with its strong humidity jump of up to 9 g/kg in water vapor mixing ratio, the mixing ratio variance can attain 9 (g/kg)2, while below it typically ranges between 1 and 3 (g/kg)2. Layer depths and partial water vapor columns within the layers vary by up to a factor of 2. This affects the total tropospheric water vapor column, amounting on average to 28 kg/m2, by up to 10 kg/m2 or 36%. The dominant scale of the variability is given by the extent of regions with higher-than-average humidity and lies between 300 and 600 km. The variability mainly stems from the alternation between dry regions and moisture lifted by convection. Occasionally, up to 100-km large dry regions are observed. In between, convection pushes the trade inversion upward, sharpening the vertical moisture gradient that is colocated with the trade inversion. In most of the water vapor profiles, this gradient is stronger than the one located at the top of the sub-cloud layer. Lidar observations in concert with models accurately reproducing the observed variability are expected to help evaluate the role these findings play for climate.

СОПОСТАВЛЕНИЕ ВАРИАЦИЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ ВОЗДУХА НА АФРИКАНСКОМ КОНТИНЕНТЕ И ИНТЕНСИВНОСТИ ШУМАНОВСКОГО РЕЗОНАНСА ПО ДОЛГОВРЕМЕННЫМ НАБЛЮДЕНИЯМ В AНТАРКТИКЕ

СОПОСТАВЛЕНИЕ ВАРИАЦИЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ ВОЗДУХА НА АФРИКАНСКОМ КОНТИНЕНТЕ И ИНТЕНСИВНОСТИ ШУМАНОВСКОГО РЕЗОНАНСА ПО ДОЛГОВРЕМЕННЫМ НАБЛЮДЕНИЯМ В AНТАРКТИКЕ

Detections and simulations of tropospheric water vapor fluctuations due to trapped lee waves by ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 ScanSAR interferometry

Detailed wave-like spatial patterns of atmospheric propagation delay signals associated with mountain lee waves were detected in Hokkaido and Tohoku by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry (InSAR) with the ScanSAR mode observation data of a Phased Array-type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 on board the Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2. Both cases occurred under stable atmosphere conditions. The InSAR-observed peak-to-trough line of sight changes in the mountain wave signals was 4 and 5 cm with the horizontal wavelengths of 9 and 15 km in Hokkaido and Tohoku, respectively. Locations of positive phase maxima in the mountain wave signals coincides with locations of cloud streets observed by visible satellite imagery, indicating that crests of mountain waves contain relatively much water vapor compared with wave troughs. Numerical weather simulations with the horizontal grid spacing of 1 km were performed to reproduce InSAR phase variations, and as a result those simulations could reasonably reproduce observed wave amplitudes and wavelengths in both cases. On the other hand, numerical simulations tended to overestimate wave attenuation rates: simulated mountain waves decreased as the wave propagated faster than those of observed signals. Because the simulated wave attenuation rate is sensitive to physics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), we investigated the reproducibility of five PBL schemes implemented in the WRF model. As a result, all the PBL schemes showed little attenuation except for the Yonsei University scheme (YSU), while the wavelength in the YSU was most close to the observation. Our study demonstrated the uniqueness and usefulness of InSAR for meteorological application as the ability to map the detailed water vapor distribution regardless of cloud cover. In addition, the reasonable reproducibility of the water vapor delay signal due to lee waves by the numerical weather model encourages researchers who tackle the correction of the tropospheric propagation delay, increasing the accuracy in detecting surface deformations.Graphical abstract.

Importance of the Saharan heat low in controlling the North Atlantic free tropospheric humidity budget deduced from IASI <i>δ</i>D observations

Abstract. The isotopic composition of water vapour in the North Atlantic free troposphere is investigated with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements of the D ∕ H ratio (δD) above the ocean. We show that in the vicinity of West Africa, the seasonality of δD is particularly strong (130 ‰), which is related with the influence of the Saharan heat low (SHL) during summertime. The SHL indeed largely influences the dynamic in that region by producing deep turbulent mixing layers, yielding a specific water vapour isotopic footprint. The influence of the SHL on the isotopic budget is analysed on various time and space scales and is shown to be large, highlighting the importance of the SHL dynamics on the moistening and the HDO enrichment of the free troposphere over the North Atlantic. The potential influence of the SHL is also investigated on the inter-annual scale as we also report important variations in δD above the Canary archipelago region. We interpret the variability in the enrichment, using backward trajectory analyses, in terms of the ratio of air masses coming from the North Atlantic and air masses coming from the African continent. Finally, the interest of IASI high sampling capabilities is further illustrated by presenting spatial distributions of δD and humidity above the North Atlantic from which we show that the different sources and dehydration pathways controlling the humidity can be disentangled thanks to the added value of δD observations. More generally, our results demonstrate the utility of δD observations obtained from the IASI sounder to gain insight into the hydrological cycle processes in the West African region.

Near real-time tropospheric water vapour profiling using a ground-based GPS receiver

ABSTRACTThis article presents a remote-sensing tool employing an artificial neural networks algorithm for near real-time determination of the relative humidity (RH) profile above a site using global positioning system (GPS) data recorded by a ground-based GPS receiver. GPS data were processed to obtain Integrated Water Vapour. The integrated water vapour in conjunction with ground level information for temperature, pressure, and RH was fed as inputs to the developed neural network which in turn generated the instantaneous RH profile, at six standard pressure levels of 100, 150, 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa, as output. GPS and radiosonde data for the years 2009 and 2010 were used to train the system while the same data for 2011 were used to validate the system. The relative humidity profile results for 2011 generated using GPS data and the neural network, upon comparison with recorded in situ radiosonde RH profile measurements for the same days and times in the year 2011, had root mean square error of less than 4%, which falls within the margin of error of the Vaisala RS92 Radiosonde’s humidity measurement regime.

Three dimensional ray tracing technique for tropospheric water vapor tomography using GPS measurements

Tropospheric water vapor has a key role in tropospheric processes and it is an important parameter in meteorology studies. Because of its non-uniform spatiotemporal distribution, modeling the spatiotemporal variations of water vapor is a challenging subject in meteorology. The GNSS tomography of the troposphere is a promising method to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of water vapor parameter in this layer. The tomography method efficiency is dependent on the ray tracing technique and GPS derived tropospheric slant wet delays. Implementing constraints and regularization methods are necessary in order to achieve the regularized solution in troposphere tomography. In this paper, the three dimensional (3D) ray tracing technique based on Eikonal equations and ERA-I data are used to perform the reconstruction the signal path, Iranian Permanent GPS Network (IPGN) measurements are used to calculate slant wet delays and the LSQR regularization technique is used to obtain a regularized tomographic solution for tropospheric water vapor. The modeled water vapor profiles are validated using radiosonde observations.

A decadal time series of water vapor and D / H isotope ratios above Zugspitze: transport patterns to central Europe

Abstract. We present vertical soundings (2005–2015) of tropospheric water vapor (H2O) and its D ∕ H isotope ratio (δD) derived from ground-based solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements at Zugspitze (47° N, 11° E, 2964 m a.s.l.). Beside water vapor profiles with optimized vertical resolution (degrees of freedom for signal, DOFS, = 2.8), {H2O, δD} pairs with consistent vertical resolution (DOFS = 1.6 for H2O and δD) applied in this study. The integrated water vapor (IWV) trend of 2.4 [−5.8, 10.6] % decade−1 is statistically insignificant (95 % confidence interval). Under this caveat, the IWV trend estimate is conditionally consistent with the 2005–2015 temperature increase at Zugspitze (1.3 [0.5, 2.1] K decade−1), assuming constant relative humidity. Seasonal variations in free-tropospheric H2O and δD exhibit amplitudes of 140 and 50 % of the respective overall means. The minima (maxima) in January (July) are in agreement with changing sea surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean. Using extensive backward-trajectory analysis, distinct moisture pathways are identified depending on observed δD levels: low column-based δD values (δDcol < 5th percentile) are associated with air masses originating at higher latitudes (62° N on average) and altitudes (6.5 km)than high δD values (δDcol > 95th percentile: 46° N, 4.6 km). Backward-trajectory classification indicates that {H2O, δD} observations are influenced by three long-range-transport patterns towards Zugspitze assessed in previous studies: (i) intercontinental transport from North America (TUS; source region: 25–45° N, 70–110° W, 0–2 km altitude), (ii) intercontinental transport from northern Africa (TNA; source region: 15–30° N, 15° W–35° E, 0–2 km altitude), and (iii) stratospheric air intrusions (STIs; source region: > 20° N, above zonal mean tropopause). The FTIR data exhibit significantly differing signatures in free-tropospheric {H2O, δD} pairs (5 km a.s.l.) – given as the mean with uncertainty of ±2 standard error (SE) – for TUS (VMRH2O = 2.4 [2.3, 2.6] × 103 ppmv, δD = −315 [−326, −303] ‰), TNA (2.8 [2.6, 2.9] × 103 ppmv, −251 [−257, −246] ‰), and STIs (1.2 [1.1, 1.3] × 103 ppmv, −384 [−397, −372] ‰). For TUS events, {H2O, δD} observations depend on surface temperature in the source region and the degree of dehydration having occurred during updraft in warm conveyor belts. During TNA events (dry convection of boundary layer air) relatively moist and weakly HDO-depleted air masses are imported. In contrast, STI events are associated with import of predominantly dry and HDO-depleted air masses. These long-range-transport patterns potentially involve the import of various trace constituents to the central European free troposphere, i.e., import of pollution from North America (e.g., aerosol, ozone, carbon monoxide), Saharan mineral dust, stratospheric ozone, and other airborne species such as pollen. Our results provide evidence that {H2O, δD} observations are a valuable proxy for the transport of such tracers. To validate this finding, we consult a database of transport events (TNA and STI) covering 2013–2015 deduced by data filtering from in situ measurements at Zugspitze and lidar profiles at nearby Garmisch. Indeed, the FTIR data related to these verified TNA events (27 days) exhibit characteristic fingerprints in IWV (5.5 [4.9, 6.1] mm) and δDcol (−266 [−284, −247] ‰), which are significantly distinguishable from the rest of the time series (4.3 [4.1, 4.5] mm, −316 [−324, −308] ‰). This holds true for 136 STI days considering uncertainties of ±1 SE (4.2 [4.0, 4.3] mm, −322 [−327, −316] ‰) with respect to the remainder (4.6 [4.5, 4.8] mm, −302 [−307, −297] ‰). Furthermore, deep stratospheric intrusions to the Zugspitze summit (in situ humidity and beryllium-7 data filtering) show a significantly lower mean value (−334 [−337, −330] ‰) of lower-tropospheric δD (3–5 km a.s.l.) than the rest of the 2005–2015 time series (−284 [−286, −282] ‰) considering uncertainty of ±2 SE. Our results show that consistent {H2O, δD} observations at Zugspitze can serve as an operational indicator for long-range-transport events potentially affecting regional climate and air quality, as well as human health in central Europe.

Detecting shifts in tropical moisture imbalances with satellite‐derived isotope ratios in water vapor

AbstractAs global temperatures rise, regional differences in evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) are likely to become more disparate, causing the drier E‐dominated regions of the tropics to become drier and the wetter P‐dominated regions to become wetter. Models suggest that such intensification of the water cycle should already be taking place; however, quantitatively verifying these changes is complicated by inherent difficulties in measuring E and P with sufficient spatial coverage and resolution. This paper presents a new metric for tracking changes in regional moisture imbalances (e.g., E‐P) by defining δDq—the isotope ratio normalized to a reference water vapor concentration of 4 mmol mol−1—and evaluates its efficacy using both remote sensing retrievals and climate model simulations in the tropics. By normalizing the isotope ratio with respect to water vapor concentration, δDq isolates the portion of isotopic variability most closely associated with shifts between E‐ and P‐dominated regimes. Composite differences in δDq between cold and warm phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) verify that δDq effectively tracks changes in the hydrological cycle when large‐scale convective reorganization takes place. Simulated δDq also demonstrates sensitivity to shorter‐term variability in E‐P at most tropical locations. Since the isotopic signal of E‐P in free tropospheric water vapor transfers to the isotope ratios of precipitation, multidecadal observations of both water vapor and precipitation isotope ratios should provide key evidence of changes in regional moisture imbalances now and in the future.

Isotopic evidence of multiple controls on atmospheric oxidants over climate transitions.

The abundance of tropospheric oxidants, such as ozone (O3) and hydroxyl (OH) and peroxy radicals (HO2 + RO2), determines the lifetimes of reduced trace gases such as methane and the production of particulate matter important for climate and human health. The response of tropospheric oxidants to climate change is poorly constrained owing to large uncertainties in the degree to which processes that influence oxidants may change with climate and owing to a lack of palaeo-records with which to constrain levels of atmospheric oxidants during past climate transitions. At present, it is thought that temperature-dependent emissions of tropospheric O3 precursors and water vapour abundance determine the climate response of oxidants, resulting in lower tropospheric O3 in cold climates while HOx (= OH + HO2 + RO2) remains relatively buffered. Here we report observations of oxygen-17 excess of nitrate (a proxy for the relative abundance of atmospheric O3 and HOx) from a Greenland ice core over the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle and for two Dansgaard-Oeschger events. We find that tropospheric oxidants are sensitive to climate change with an increase in the O3/HOx ratio in cold climates, the opposite of current expectations. We hypothesize that the observed increase in O3/HOx in cold climates is driven by enhanced stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of O3, and that reactive halogen chemistry is also enhanced in cold climates. Reactive halogens influence the oxidative capacity of the troposphere directly as oxidants themselves and indirectly via their influence on O3 and HOx. The strength of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport is largely controlled by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, which may be enhanced in colder climates owing to a stronger meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures, with implications for the response of tropospheric oxidants and stratospheric thermal and mass balance. These two processes may represent important, yet relatively unexplored, climate feedback mechanisms during major climate transitions.

Surface Deformation of North‐Central Oklahoma Related to the 2016Mw 5.8 Pawnee Earthquake from SAR Interferometry Time Series

ABSTRACT The 3 September 2016 M w 5.8 Pawnee earthquake shook a large area of north‐central Oklahoma and was the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the state. We processed Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) from the Copernicus Sentinel‐1A and Sentinel‐1B and Canadian RADARSAT‐2 satellites with interferometric SAR analysis for the area of north‐central Oklahoma that surrounds Pawnee. The interferograms do not show phase discontinuities that would indicate surface ruptures during the earthquake. Individual interferograms have substantial atmospheric noise caused by variations in radar propagation delays due to tropospheric water vapor, so we performed a time‐series analysis of the Sentinel‐1 stack to obtain a more accurate estimate of the ground deformation in the coseismic time interval and the time variation of deformation before and after the earthquake. The time‐series fit for a step function at the time of the Pawnee shows about 3 cm peak‐to‐peak amplitude of the coseismic surface deformation in the radar line of sight with a spatial pattern that is consistent with fault slip on a plane trending east‐southeast. This fault, which we call the Sooner Lake fault, is parallel to the west‐northwest nodal plane of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center moment tensor solution. We model the fault plane by fitting hypoDD‐relocated aftershocks aligned in the same trend. Our preferred slip model on this assumed fault plane, allowing only strike‐slip motion, has no slip shallower than 2.3 km depth, an area of moderate slip extending 7 km along strike between 2.3 and 4.5 km depth (which could be due to aftershocks and afterslip), and larger slip between 4.5 and 14 km depth extending about 12 km along strike. The large slip below the 4.5 km depth of our relocated hypocenter indicates that the coseismic rupture propagated down‐dip. The time‐series results do not show significant deformation before or after the earthquake above the high atmospheric noise level within about 40 km of the earthquake rupture.

Evaluating hydrological processes in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) using stable isotope ratios of water

AbstractWater isotope‐enabled climate and earth system models are able to directly simulate paleoclimate proxy records to aid in climate reconstruction. A less used major advantage is that water isotopologues provide an independent constraint on many atmospheric and hydrologic processes, allowing the model to be developed and tuned in a more physically accurate way. This paper describes the new isotope‐enabled CAM5 model, including its isotopic physics routines, and its ability to simulate the modern distribution of water isotopologues in vapor and precipitation. It is found that the model has a negative isotopic bias in precipitation. This bias is partially attributed to model overestimates of deep convection, particularly over the midlatitude oceans during winter. This was determined by examining isotope ratios both in precipitation and vapor, instead of precipitation alone. This enhanced convective activity depletes the isotopic water vapor in the lower troposphere, where the majority of poleward moisture transport occurs, resulting in the insufficient transport of water isotopologue mass poleward and landward. This analysis also demonstrates that large‐scale dynamical or moisture source changes can impact isotopologue values as much as local shifts in temperature or precipitation amount. The diagnosis of limitations in the large‐scale transport characteristics has major implications if one is using isotope‐enabled climate models to examine paleoclimate proxy records, as well as the modern global hydroclimate.

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: From bending angle to dry‐air atmospheric profiles

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Radio Occultation (RO) observations, globally available as a continuous record since 2001, are highly accurate and long‐term stable data records. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere, such as temperature and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information), can be derived from these records, which consequentially have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. In order to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties need to be quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain. The new Reference Occultation Processing System at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented for uncertainty propagation from RO bending angle profiles to dry‐air variables (pressure and temperature), for estimated random and systematic uncertainties, and for coestimates of observation‐to‐background weighting ratio profiles. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty propagation was integrated by a covariance propagation approach and validated using Monte‐Carlo ensemble methods. We present the results of the validation and demonstrate how the algorithm performs for individual simulated RO events and for ensembles of real RO events. We also compare the new results from the integrated uncertainty propagation to previous ones from empirical error analyses for RO‐retrieved atmospheric profiles. We find that the new uncertainty estimation chain shows robust performance and is in good agreement with previous comparable results.

Amplified Late Pliocene terrestrial warmth in northern high latitudes from greater radiative forcing and closed Arctic Ocean gateways

Proxy reconstructions of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP, between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) suggest terrestrial temperatures were much warmer in the northern high latitudes (55°–90°N, referred to as NHL) than present-day. Climate models participating in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (PlioMIP1) tend to underestimate this warmth. For instance, the underestimate is ∼10 °C on average across NHL and up to 17 °C in the Canadian Arctic region in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Here, we explore potential mPWP climate forcings that might contribute to this mPWP mismatch. We carry out seven experiments to assess terrestrial temperature responses to Pliocene Arctic gateway closure, variations in CO2 level, and orbital forcing at millennial time scale.To better compare the full range of simulated terrestrial temperatures with sparse proxy data, we introduce a pattern recognition technique that simplifies the model surface temperatures to a few representative patterns that can be validate with the limited terrestrial proxy data. The pattern recognition technique reveals two prominent features of simulated Pliocene surface temperature responses. First, distinctive patterns of amplified warming occur in the NHL, which can be explained by lowered surface elevation of Greenland, pattern and amount of Arctic sea ice loss, and changing strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Second, patterns of surface temperature response are similar among experiments with different forcing mechanisms. This similarity is due to strong feedbacks from responses in surface albedo and troposphere water vapor content to sea ice changes, which overwhelm distinctions in forcings from changes in insolation, CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateway closure.By comparing CCSM4 simulations with proxy records, we demonstrate that both model and proxy records show similar patterns of mPWP NHL terrestrial warmth, but the model underestimates the magnitude. High insolation, greater CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateways closure each contributes to reduce the underestimate by enhancing the Arctic warmth of 1–2 °C. These results highlight the importance of considering proxy NHL warmth in the context of Pliocene Arctic gateway changes, and variations in insolation and CO2 forcing.