Tropospheric Response Research Articles

The Combined Influences of Westerly Phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and 11-year Solar Maximum Conditions on the Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Winter Circulation

The combined influences of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO-W) and solar maximum (Smax) conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation are investigated using reanalysis data and Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations. The composite analysis for the reanalysis data indicates strengthened polar vortex in December followed by weakened polar vortex in February–March for QBO-W during Smax (QBO-W/Smax) conditions. This relationship need not be specific to QBO-W/Smax conditions but may just require strengthened vortex in December, which is more likely under QBO-W/Smax. Both the reanalysis data and CCM simulations suggest that dynamical processes of planetary wave propagation and meridional circulation related to QBO-W around polar vortex in December are similar in character to those related to Smax; furthermore, both processes may work in concert to maintain stronger vortex during QBO-W/Smax. In the reanalysis data, the strengthened polar vortex in December is associated with the development of north–south dipole tropospheric anomaly in the Atlantic sector similar to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during December–January. The structure of the north–south dipole anomaly has zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1) component, where the longitude of anomalous ridge overlaps with that of climatological ridge in the North Atlantic in January. This implies amplification of the WN1 wave and results in the enhancement of the upward WN1 propagation from troposphere into stratosphere in January, leading to the weakened polar vortex in February–March. Although WN2 waves do not play a direct role in forcing the stratospheric vortex evolution, their tropospheric response to QBO-W/Smax conditions appears to be related to the maintenance of the NAO-like anomaly in the high-latitude troposphere in January. These results may provide a possible explanation for the mechanisms underlying the seasonal evolution of wintertime polar vortex anomalies during QBO-W/Smax conditions and the role of troposphere in this evolution.

Modeling the climate impact of Southern Hemisphere ozone depletion: The importance of the ozone data set

AbstractThe ozone hole is an important driver of recent Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change, and capturing these changes is a goal of climate modeling. Most climate models are driven by off‐line ozone data sets. Previous studies have shown that there is a substantial range in estimates of SH ozone depletion, but the implications of this range have not been examined systematically. We use a climate model to evaluate the difference between using the ozone forcing (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)) used by many Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models and one at the upper end of the observed depletion estimates (Binary Database of Profiles (BDBP)). In the stratosphere, we find that austral spring/summer polar cap cooling, geopotential height decreases, and zonal wind increases in the BDBP simulations are all doubled compared to the SPARC simulations, while tropospheric responses are 20–100% larger. These results are important for studies attempting to diagnose the climate fingerprints of ozone depletion.

Local Wintertime Tropospheric Response to Oceanic Heat Anomalies in the Nordic Seas Area

Abstract A regression analysis between observed summertime Atlantic water temperature anomalies at the entrance to the Barents Sea and atmospheric fields in the following winter from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis in the period 1982–2006 is carried out. It shows that the ocean plays a key role in shaping wintertime tropospheric variability in the Nordic seas (Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian and Barents Seas) region. The oceanically driven atmospheric circulation anomaly around the Nordic seas marginal ice zone is intensified at the surface as a result of a thermally direct baroclinic adjustment. Frictional convergence in the cyclonic disturbance corresponding to warm ocean temperature anomalies forces ascending motion at the top of the planetary boundary layer and a compensating divergence aloft, which over the Barents Sea is extreme at the tropopause. A quasi-meridional overturning circulation anomaly is closed by descending motion south of the cyclonic disturbance. In addition, an equivalent barotropic flow anomaly appears in the upper troposphere. It is partly driven by eddy–mean flow interactions, as revealed by anomalies in the vorticity budget. The atmospheric response to oceanic forcing in the Nordic seas area is unique because of the prominent role of surface friction and because of specific profiles of diabatic heating and eddy heat flux convergence over the Barents Sea. As revealed by anomalies in the heat budget, the combined effect of diabatic heating and thermal eddy forcing acts, when the diabatic heating is positive, as a heat sink at the surface and a heat source aloft. The strongest anomalous heating occurs in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere where it counteracts the dynamic cooling owing to anomalous ascending motion.

The Downward Influence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings*

Abstract The coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere following two major stratospheric sudden warmings is studied in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model using a nudging technique by which the zonal-mean evolution of the reference sudden warmings are artificially induced in an ~100-member ensemble spun off from a control simulation. Both reference warmings are taken from a freely running integration of the model. One event is a displacement, the other is a split, and both are followed by extended recoveries in the lower stratosphere. The methodology permits a statistically robust study of their influence on the troposphere below. The nudged ensembles exhibit a tropospheric annular mode response closely analogous to that seen in observations, confirming the downward influence of sudden warmings on the troposphere in a comprehensive model. This tropospheric response coincides more closely with the lower-stratospheric annular mode anomalies than with the midstratospheric wind reversal. In addition to the expected synoptic-scale eddy feedback, the planetary-scale eddies also reinforce the tropospheric wind changes, apparently responding directly to the stratospheric anomalies. Furthermore, despite the zonal symmetry of the stratospheric perturbation, a highly zonally asymmetric near-surface response is produced, corresponding to a strongly negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation with a much weaker response over the Pacific basin that matches composites of sudden warmings from the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models exhibit a similar response, though in most models the response’s magnitude is underrepresented.

Declining Aerosols in CMIP5 Projections: Effects on Atmospheric Temperature Structure and Midlatitude Jets

AbstractThe effects of declining anthropogenic aerosols in representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) are assessed in four models from phase 5 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with a focus on annual, zonal-mean atmospheric temperature structure and zonal winds. For each model, the effect of declining aerosols is diagnosed from the difference between a projection forced by RCP4.5 for 2006–2100 and another that has identical forcing, except that anthropogenic aerosols are fixed at early twenty-first-century levels. The response to declining aerosols is interpreted in terms of the meridional structure of aerosol radiative forcing, which peaks near 40°N and vanishes at the South Pole.Increasing greenhouse gases cause amplified warming in the tropical upper troposphere and strengthening midlatitude jets in both hemispheres. However, for declining aerosols the vertically averaged tropospheric temperature response peaks near 40°N, rather than in the tropics. This implies that for declining aerosols the tropospheric meridional temperature gradient generally increases in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) it decreases in the tropics and subtropics. Consistent with thermal wind balance, the NH jet then strengthens on its poleward side and weakens on its equatorward side, whereas the SH jet strengthens more than the NH jet. The asymmetric response of the jets is thus consistent with the meridional structure of aerosol radiative forcing and the associated tropospheric warming: in the NH the latitude of maximum warming is roughly collocated with the jet, whereas in the SH warming is strongest in the tropics and weakest at high latitudes.

Interdecadal Variations in ENSO Influences on Northwest Pacific–East Asian Early Summertime Climate Simulated in CMIP5 Models

Abstract The present study investigates interdecadal modulations of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the climate of the northwest Pacific (NWP) and East Asia (EA) in early boreal summer following a winter ENSO event, based on 19 simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In the historical run, 8 out of 19 models capture a realistic relationship between ENSO and NWP early summer climate—an anomalous anticyclone develops over the NWP following a winter El Niño event—and the interdecadal modulations of this correlation. During periods when the association between ENSO and NWP early summer climate is strong, ENSO variance and ENSO-induced anomalies of summer sea surface temperature (SST) and tropospheric temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) all strengthen relative to periods when the association is weak. In future projections with representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, the response of TIO SST, tropospheric temperature, and NWP anomalous anticyclone to ENSO all strengthen regardless of ENSO amplitude change. In a warmer climate, low-level specific humidity response to interannual SST variability strengthens following the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. The resultant intensification of tropospheric temperature response to interannual TIO warming is suggested as the mechanism for the strengthened ENSO effect on NWP–EA summer climate.

Detection of lower tropospheric responses to solar energetic particles at midlatitudes.

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) occasionally contribute additional atmospheric ionization beyond that arising from the usual galactic cosmic ray background. During an SEP event associated with a solar flare on April 11, 2013, the vertical ionization rate profile obtained using a balloon-borne detector showed enhanced ionization with a 26% increase at 20km, over Reading, United Kingdom. Fluctuations in atmospheric electrical parameters were also detected at the surface, beneath the balloon's trajectory. As no coincident changes in geomagnetism occurred, the electrical fluctuations are very likely to be associated with increased ionization, as observed by the balloon measurements. The lack of response of surface neutron monitors during this event indicates that energetic particles that are not detected at the surface by neutron monitors can nevertheless enter and influence the atmosphere's weather-generating regions.

Precessional forced extratropical North Pacific mode and associated atmospheric dynamics

AbstractUsing transient accelerated simulations of the Community Climate System Model version 3 and an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity as well as equilibrium experiments of the Community Earth System Model, we identified a response of the extratropical air‐ocean coupled system to the precessional insolation changes at orbital timescales and named this extratropical response pattern as the North Pacific mode (NPM). Corresponding to the increased/decreased boreal winter/summer insolation at 22 ka (relative to 10–8 ka), the NPM is characterized by a western warm‐eastern cold seesaw pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) over the extratropical North Pacific from November to April, a weakened winter Aleutian low and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation throughout the troposphere. This feature forms a barotropic warm‐ridge response of tropospheric temperature and geopotential height to the precessional insolation. At the surface, rainfall increases over East Asia and the Northwest Pacific, which indicates a weakened East Asian winter monsoon, while drier conditions appear over the Northeast Pacific and the western coasts of North America. Associated with a negative phase of NPM is a weaker warming over the equatorial Pacific during winter. The increased winter insolation at precessional band not only induces the in‐phase SST warming over the Northwest Pacific and the tropical Pacific, but also explains those extratropical atmospheric changes associated with NPM. The latter might be associated with the warm SST‐induced tropospheric downstream ridge response through transient eddy activities. Besides the vital role of air‐ocean interactions, the decreased summer insolation is also essential to the zonal SST seesaw of NPM at precessional band.

Remote Effects of El Niño and Modoki Events on the Austral Summer Precipitation of Southern Africa

Abstract Remote effects modulating the austral summer precipitation over southern Africa during El Niño/El Niño Modoki events are investigated by analyzing the observed events during December–February of the years from 1982/83 to 2010/11. Based on the composite analyses, it is found that southern Africa experiences significantly below normal precipitation during El Niño events compared to El Niño Modoki events. During these latter events, precipitation anomalies are not so significant although southern Africa as a whole receives below normal precipitations. The differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation over southern Africa are seen to be related to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the equatorial Pacific through atmospheric teleconnections. The low-level (850 hPa) Matsuno–Gill response to anomalously high precipitation over the Pacific during El Niño events results in an anomalous anticyclone extending from the equatorial to the subtropical South Indian Ocean. These anomalous anticyclonic winds weaken the tropical moisture flow into the southern Africa landmass. Rossby wave activity flux analysis of the upper-level (300 hPa) circulation shows an anomalous tropospheric stationary wave from the Pacific propagating toward southern Africa and maintaining an anomalous anticyclone over southern Africa. The anomalous Matsuno–Gill response and the anomalous tropospheric stationary wave response are intense during El Niño events, causing drought over southern Africa. During El Niño Modoki events, these processes are weaker compared to El Niño events.

Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models

The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Nino events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Nina events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Nino events. The simulated responses to El Nino and La Nina have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere.

Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

We conducted a comparison of trends in lower stratospheric temperatures and summer zonal wind fields based on 27 years of reanalysis data and output from hindcast simulations using a coupled ocean- atmospheric general circulation model (OAGCM). Lower stratospheric ozone in the OAGCM was relaxed to the observed climatology and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations were neglected. In the reanalysis, lower stratospheric ozone fields were better represented than in the OAGCM. The spring lower stratospheric/ upper tropospheric cooling in the polar cap observed in the reanalysis, which is caused by a direct ozone depletion in the past two decades and is in agreement with previous studies, did not appear in the OAGCM. The corresponding summer tropospheric response also differed between data sets. In the reanalysis, a statistically significant poleward trend of the summer jet position was found, whereas no such trend was found in the OAGCM. Furthermore, the jet position in the reanalysis exhibited larger interannual variability than that in the OAGCM. We conclude that these differences are caused by the absence of long-term lower stratospheric ozone changes in the OAGCM. Improper representation or non-inclusion of such ozone variability in a prediction model could adversely affect the accuracy of the predictability of summer rainfall forecasts over South Africa.

The role of the oceans in shaping the tropospheric response to the 11 year solar cycle

Observational data indicate a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical tropospheric jets in the maximum phase of the 11 year solar cycle, commonly explained in terms of a direct “top‐down” propagation of solar signals from the stratosphere to the troposphere. We here demonstrate possible linkages to oceanic variability, instead. The observed response of the jets is qualitatively and quantitatively reproduced in an ensemble of simulations with a global model forced only at the lower boundary by the observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, while keeping solar cycle forcing constant. The twentieth century reanalysis, in which only surface observations are assimilated, is characterized by a similar shift of the jets. These findings suggest that changes at the ocean surface could contribute considerably to the poleward shift of the subtropical tropospheric jets, although a top‐down influence on the oceans and hence indirectly on the jets cannot be excluded.

The Effect of Moist Convection on the Tropospheric Response to Tropical and Subtropical Zonally Asymmetric Torques

Abstract Tropospheric winds can be altered by vertical transfers of momentum due to orographic gravity waves and convection. Previous work showed that, in dry models, such zonally asymmetric torques produce a pattern of tropical ascent that is well described by linear dynamics, together with meridional shifts of the midlatitude jet. Here a series of idealized models is used to understand the effects of moisture on the tropospheric response to tropical and subtropical zonally asymmetric, upper-tropospheric torques. The vertical motion response to a torque is shown to be amplified by the reduction in effective static stability that occurs in moist convecting atmospheres. This amplification occurs only in precipitating regions, and the magnitude of subsidence in nonprecipitating regions saturates when clear-sky radiative cooling balances induced adiabatic warming. For basic states in which precipitation is concentrated in an intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), most of the vertical motion response is thus confined within the basic-state ITCZ, even when the torque is remote from the ITCZ. Tropical and subtropical torques perturb the extratropical baroclinic eddy field and the convectively coupled equatorial wave field. Resulting changes in momentum flux convergence by transient eddies induce secondary meridional overturning circulations that modify the zonal-mean response to a torque. The net effect allows tropical torques to merge a double ITCZ into a single equatorial ITCZ. The response of tropical transient eddies is highly sensitive to the representation of convection, so the zonal-mean response to a torque is similarly sensitive, even when the torque is located in the subtropics.

Why does FGOALS-gl reproduce a weak Medieval Warm Period but a reasonable Little Ice Age and 20th century warming?

To understand the strengths and limitations of a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice (FGOALS-gl) to simulate the climate of the last millennium, the energy balance, climate sensitivity and absorption feedback of the model are analyzed. Simulation of last-millennium climate was carried out by driving the model with natural (solar radiation and volcanic eruptions) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcing agents. The model feedback factors for (model sensitivity to) different forcings were calculated. The results show that the system feedback factor is about 2.5 (W m−2) K−1 in the pre-industrial period, while 1.9 (W m−2) K−1 in the industrial era. Thus, the model’s sensitivity to natural forcing is weak, which explains why it reproduces a weak Medieval Warm Period. The relatively reasonable simulation of the Little Ice Age is caused by both the specified radiative forcing and unforced linear cold drift. The model sensitivity in the industrial era is higher than that of the pre-industrial period. A negative net cloud radiative feedback operates during whole-millennial simulation and reduces the model’s sensitivity to specified forcing. The negative net cloud radiative forcing feedback under natural forcing in the period prior to 1850 is due to the underestimation (overestimation) of the response of cloudiness (in-cloud water path). In the industrial era, the strong tropospheric temperature response enlarges the effective radius of ice clouds and reduces the fractional ice content within cloud, resulting in a weak negative net cloud feedback in the industrial period. The water vapor feedback in the industrial era is also stronger than that in the pre-industrial period. Both are in favor of higher model sensitivity and thus a reasonable simulation of the 20th century global warming.

Planetary‐scale wave activity as a source of varying tropospheric response to stratospheric sudden warming events: A case study

Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) events are typically, but not always, accompanied by negative Northern Annular Mode anomalies in the troposphere. However, large uncertainties remain as to which dynamical processes are responsible for those anomalies. In order to highlight sources of variability in stratosphere‐troposphere coupling among SSW events, we present a case study of three selected events and show detailed Transformed Eulerian Mean diagnostics for momentum changes in the stratosphere and troposphere in the course of those events. Our results suggest that planetary‐scale waves, especially the zonal wave number 2 component, may play an important role not only for the onset of tropospheric anomalies in response to SSW events but also for introducing variability in the vertical coupling, i.e., whether the tropospheric circulation anomalies lag, lead, or occur simultaneous to the weakening of the vortex. Particularly, the meridional propagation of those waves in the upper troposphere could be an important factor that determines whether SSW events lag or lead tropospheric anomalies.

The role of synoptic eddies in the tropospheric response to stratospheric variability

The tropospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is analyzed in an idealized model setup regarding the respective roles of planetary‐scale and synoptic‐scale waves. The control model run includes a full interactive wave spectrum, while a second run includes interactive planetary‐scale waves but only the time‐mean synoptic‐scale wave forcing from the control run. In both runs, the tropospheric response is characterized by the negative phase of the respective tropospheric annular mode. But given their different latitudinal structure, the control run shows the expected response, i.e., an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet, whereas the response in the absence of interactive synoptic eddies is characterized by a poleward jet shift. This opposite jet shift is associated with a different planetary wave variability that couples with the zonal flow between the stratosphere and the surface. These results indicate that the synoptic eddy feedback is necessary for the observed tropospheric response to SSWs.

Lower-Stratospheric Radiative Damping and Polar-Night Jet Oscillation Events

Abstract The effect of stratospheric radiative damping time scales on stratospheric variability and on stratosphere–troposphere coupling is investigated in a simplified global circulation model by modifying the vertical profile of radiative damping in the stratosphere while holding it fixed in the troposphere. Perpetual-January conditions are imposed, with sinusoidal topography of zonal wavenumber 1 or 2. The depth and duration of the simulated sudden stratospheric warmings closely track the lower-stratospheric radiative time scales. Simulations with the most realistic profiles of radiative damping exhibit extended time-scale recoveries analogous to polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events, which are observed to follow sufficiently deep stratospheric warmings. These events are characterized by weak lower-stratospheric winds and enhanced stability near the tropopause, which persist for up to 3 months following the initial warming. They are obtained with both wave-1 and wave-2 topography. Planetary-scale Eliassen–Palm (EP) fluxes entering the vortex are also suppressed, which is in agreement with observed PJO events. Consistent with previous studies, the tropospheric jets shift equatorward in response to the warmings. The duration of the shift is closely correlated with the period of enhanced stability. The magnitude of the shift in these runs, however, is sensitive only to the zonal wavenumber of the topography. Although the shift is sustained primarily by synoptic-scale eddies, the net effect of the topographic form drag and the planetary-scale fluxes is not negligible; they damp the surface wind response but enhance the vertical shear. The tropospheric response may also reduce the generation of planetary waves, further extending the stratospheric dynamical time scales.

The Effect of Tropospheric Jet Latitude on Coupling between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Troposphere

Abstract A dry general circulation model is used to investigate how coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the extratropical tropospheric circulation depends on the latitude of the tropospheric jet. The tropospheric response to an identical stratospheric vortex configuration is shown to be strongest for a jet centered near 40° and weaker for jets near either 30° or 50° by more than a factor of 3. Stratosphere-focused mechanisms based on stratospheric potential vorticity inversion, eddy phase speed, and planetary wave reflection, as well as arguments based on tropospheric eddy heat flux and zonal length scale, appear to be incapable of explaining the differences in the magnitude of the jet shift. In contrast, arguments based purely on tropospheric variability involving the strength of eddy–zonal mean flow feedbacks and jet persistence, and related changes in the synoptic eddy momentum flux, appear to explain this effect. The dependence of coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere on tropospheric jet latitude found here is consistent with 1) the observed variability in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific and 2) the trend in the Southern Hemisphere as projected by comprehensive models.

Statistical Characterization of Arctic Polar-Night Jet Oscillation Events

AbstractA novel diagnostic tool is presented, based on polar-cap temperature anomalies, for visualizing daily variability of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex over multiple decades. This visualization illustrates the ubiquity of extended-time-scale recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. These are characterized by an anomalously warm polar lower stratosphere that persists for several months. Following the initial warming, a cold anomaly forms in the middle stratosphere, as does an anomalously high stratopause, both of which descend while the lower-stratospheric anomaly persists. These events are characterized in four datasets: Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) temperature observations; the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses; and an ensemble of three 150-yr simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. The statistics of PJO events in the model are found to agree very closely with those of the observations and reanalyses.The time scale for the recovery of the polar vortex following sudden warmings correlates strongly with the depth to which the warming initially descends. PJO events occur following roughly half of all major sudden warmings and are associated with an extended period of suppressed wave-activity fluxes entering the polar vortex. They follow vortex splits more frequently than they do vortex displacements. They are also related to weak vortex events as identified by the northern annular mode; in particular, those weak vortex events followed by a PJO event show a stronger tropospheric response. The long time scales, predominantly radiative dynamics, and tropospheric influence of PJO events suggest that they represent an important source of conditional skill in seasonal forecasting.

Re-examination of the I-5 dust storm

[1] The infamous dust storm over the thanksgiving holiday of 1991 that led to loss of life from numerous automobile accidents on Interstate 5 (I-5) has been re-examined. Pauley et al. (1996) conducted an earlier investigation of this dust storm following the tenets of Danielsen's paradigm—a paradigm that links the tropopause fold phenomenon and a balanced thermally indirect circulation about the upper level jet stream. However, a cursory examination of mesoscale structures in the storm from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) indicated evidence of a low-level unbalanced thermally direct circulation that demanded further investigation using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. Principal results from the present study follow: (1) Although the model simulation showed evidence of a weak indirect circulation in the upper troposphere in support of the Danielsen's paradigm, the dynamic control of the storm stemmed from the lower tropospheric mesoscale response to geostrophic imbalance. (2) A lower tropospheric direct circulation led to mass/temperature adjustments that were confirmed by upper air observations at locations in proximity to the accident site, and (3) boundary layer deepening and destabilization due to these mesoscale processes pinpointed the timing and location of the dust storm. Although the present study does not underestimate the value of analyses that focus on the larger/synoptic scales of motion, it does bring to light the value of investigation that makes use of the mesoscale resources in order to clarify synoptic-mesoscale interactions.