Tropical Zone Research Articles

Reducing CO2 in Passive House Adapted Low-cost Tropical Homes?

The background of this novel study is how to apply an empirically adjusted Passive House concept in the tropics - beyond its otherwise prevailing global standards. Even though well-insulated houses have been on the planet since people settled down in some of their first dwellings, passive in the 21st century is different. It includes strict rules for airtightness and fitting of windows along with a sophisticated concept for artificial ventilation. Fresh air reachable from outside by filtered ventilation with heat recovery describes the heart of the system - if natural outside air is not preferable, it is convenient just in seasons with thermal comfort. Hence, the purpose and aim of the study presented here is to use a less common and at the same time more cost-saving approach: It might seem that the modern type of passive house entails the same standards that have been developed firmly on its own global market niche. However, this article tries to contribute toward a new development of modern passive homes for low-cost affordable tropical and subtropical houses in their entirety. As a concluding note, the author states that nobody has ever disproven this evolving concept as a combination of airtightness and a new way of forced ventilation without heat- or coolness recovery which is highly applicable for low-cost residential areas in tropical countries. By generating lower temperatures, it can help to surpass the overheating caused by climate change in certain tropical climate zones in higher altitudes and during cooler seasons. The condition is that the occupants are willing to accept a thermal comfort of up to 28 °C and humidity in its 70s and 80s.

Global review of quantitative studies of primary moult of birds using the Underhill-Zucchini moult model

Knowledge about the timing of moult and how it fits into the annual cycle, along with breeding and, in some cases migration, is an important component of understanding the life history of birds. In comparison with breeding and migration, there is a lack of knowledge about the moult of birds. Primary moult can be quantified using models such as the Underhill-Zucchini moult model. Studies that included estimates of primary moult parameters (duration, mean start date and standard deviation of mean start date) obtained using the Underhill-Zucchini moult model were compiled from the literature to generate a moult analysis database. These parameters provide information about the timing of moult, how it fits into the annual cycle and how synchronised moult is in the population. Relationships between the estimated moult parameters and a series of explanatory variables were explored. Critical gaps in our understanding of primary moult were revealed. The available data are taxonomically biased towards Charadriiformes and Passeriformes and there are substantial gaps in coverage across the phylogenetic tree. There are severe biases in the global distribution of moult studies across continents, with Africa having almost half of all applications of the moult model. Latitude emerged as an important explanatory variable but there are latitudinal gaps in the data, especially from the Tropic of Capricorn extending to 40°N and in the far northern and far southern hemispheres. Citizen scientists, both bird ringers and photographers, have a key role to play in helping to fill these data gaps. An emerging pattern in the available data is that the timing of primary moult is more synchronised in populations in far northern and far southern latitudes than in temperate or tropical zones, but more data in the far south is needed to confirm this. Timing of moult shows great variability in the tropics and sub-tropical regions of the southern hemisphere. In species that undertake an annual sequential moult, larger birds take longer to moult than smaller birds, but the allometric relationship is not tight. Migrants appear to be more synchronised in their moult than residents.

Evaluation of 22 CMIP6 model-derived global soil moisture products of different shared socioeconomic pathways

The Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provides ample soil moisture (SM) products during 2015–2100, which are widely used in investigating future hydrological pattern. However, there remains limited understanding regarding the accuracy of multi-model CMIP6 SM future simulations following different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). This study assesses the spatial–temporal accuracy of 22 CMIP6 model-derived SM products using 670 ground observation stations globally during 2015–2023. Each CMIP6 model encompasses SM estimations from SSP1-2.6 (The sustainable pathway), SSP2-4.5 (The medium pathway), and SSP5-8.5 (Fossil-fueled development). The latest Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis v5-Land (ERA5-Land) SM products serve as reference benchmarks. The SM among three SSPs within the same model exhibits similar performance in in situ validation, the extended triple collocation assessment, and the classical seasonal decomposition trend analysis. This similarity may suggest a subtle variation in the influence of different SSPs on SM in the early stages of the future scenario. The majority of CMIP6 model-derived SM could reasonably capture the spatial distribution pattern and temporal evolution trend of the truth value. Meanwhile, noticeable discrepancies in accuracy, particularly regarding goodness-of-fit, are evident when compared to SMAP and ERA5-Land SM products. The CMIP6 models could provide better SM estimation in temperate and tropical zones than cold zones. In terms of differences between the land cover types, CMIP6 model-derived SM products perform well over various vegetated regions except for barren, where there are sequential overestimation and relatively low fitting degree. Extensive accuracy discrepancies exist among the 22 CMIP6 model-derived SM products due to variations in model parameterization methods and atmospheric variables.

How much evaporation occurs in Brazilian reservoirs? A multi-model perspective

Estimating evaporative losses from reservoirs is essential for water resource management. While remote sensing provides great opportunities for better constrain this process, there are still large uncertainties related to the behavior of evaporative losses across large domains. Here, we present a multi-model approach combined with remote sensing data to estimate evaporation losses at a national scale for dozens of reservoirs in Brazil. Open water evaporation (Ew) rates were obtained using two surface energy balance (SEB) models (the Google Earth Engine implementation of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (geeSEBAL) and the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop)). Due to the lack of in situ evaporation data, the estimations were cross-validated with results from the validated product Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Water Reservoir Monthly Level 3 Global (MOD28C3) and the widely used open water evaporation equation described by Penman. Ew estimates were obtained for 74 large reservoirs, representing almost 70% of the area occupied by artificial water bodies in Brazil. Monthly estimates of Ew showed satisfactory agreement among the models, especially for geeSEBAL, SSEBop, and MOD28C3. Reservoirs with higher Ew were located in the semi-arid Caatinga Biome. The total annual evaporation and net evaporation (difference between lake Ew and surrounding evapotranspiration) for the assessed reservoirs were 46.6 ± 1.0 km³ and 16.4 ± 0.5 km³, respectively, for the period 2003–2021, based on an average of geeSEBAL and SSEBop. We also found that net evaporation is very high in dry climate zones and lower in tropical and humid subtropical climate zones. Our results show the advantage of integrating remote sensing datasets and evaporation models with cloud computing to obtain evaporation estimates in a tropical region and over a large domain. These multi-model evaporation estimates can improve our understanding of water resources in ungauged regions at a large spatial scale.

Effects of dandelion reproduction

This paper mainly explored the seed propagation efficiency of dandelions in different environments and the impact of dandelions on specific environments as a species that easily spreads seeds. It also calculated the seed wind propagation distance as a solution. We incorporated global climate model factors into the first model to explain the factors influencing dandelion dispersal and the ideal range for dandelion seed dispersal in subtropical and temperate environments. Secondly, we used factor analysis to explore whether dandelion is an invasive plant. Expert scoring was used to evaluate whether a species is an invasive plant. In addition, we included two common invasive plants, alfalfa, and American sedge, in the same model and measured them with the same confidence level to conclude. As a result of the above studies, we found that dandelion spreads differently in tropical, subtropical, and temperate zones and is not a serious invasive species. Finally, based on the above conclusions, a suggestion for reasonable cultivation of dandelion was proposed.

Benchmarking multimodel terrestrial water storage seasonal cycle against Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations over major global river basins

Abstract. The increasing reliance on global models for evaluating climate- and human-induced impacts on the hydrological cycle underscores the importance of assessing the models' reliability. Hydrological models provide valuable data on ungauged river basins or basins with limited gauge networks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the reliability of 13 global models using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite's total water storage (TWS) seasonal cycle for 29 river basins in different climate zones. Results show that the simulated seasonal total water storage change (TWSC) does not compare well with GRACE even in basins within the same climate zone. The models overestimated the seasonal peak in most boreal basins and underestimated it in tropical, arid, and temperate zones. In cold basins, the modeled phase of TWSC precedes that of GRACE by up to 2–3 months. However, it lagged behind that of GRACE by 1 month over temperate and arid to semi-arid basins. The phase agreement between GRACE and the models was good in the tropical zone. In some basins with major underlying aquifers, those models that incorporate groundwater simulations provide a better representation of the water storage dynamics. With the findings and analysis of our study, we concluded that R2 (Water Resource Reanalysis tier 2 forced with Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) dataset) models with optimized parameterizations have a better correlation with GRACE than the reverse scenario (R1 models are Water Resource Reanalysis tier 1 and tier 2 forced with the ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological reanalysis dataset). This signifies an enhancement in the predictive capability of models regarding the variability of TWSC. The seasonal peak, amplitude, and phase difference analyses in this study provide new insights into the future improvement of large-scale hydrological models and TWS investigations.

MILK COMPOSITION OF THE CREOLE GOAT IN AN EXTENSIVE HUSBANDRY ENVIRONMENT IN A SEASONALLY DRY FOREST OF SOUTHERN ECUADOR

<p><strong>Background. </strong>The Creole goat (Chusca Lojana) is found in the tropical zone of the seasonally dry forest (SDF) in Loja province (southern Ecuador, South America), where 73 % of the nationwide goat population is located. <strong>Objective.</strong> To study the productive characteristics and the milk quality of this population because this genetic resource represents a valuable socio-economic element for the habitants of this region. <strong>Methodology.</strong> The production and milk quality of 198 goats, managed extensively and from different herds, were evaluated in four periodic visits, and production was recorded at the various stages of lactation, with milk samples taken for analysis using Lactoscan Milk Analyzer SA50. <strong>Results.</strong> It was determined that 64 % of the goats have a globular udder, 93 % have pigmented nipples, the productive life curve increases in the third calving, reaches its peak in the fourth calving and then declines (R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.82), lactation duration is 140 ± 20 days, the lactation curve follows a two-period mobile trend, showing two peaks, one higher (30 days) and another of less intensity between 120-150 days coinciding with the post-weaning period, and the mean daily production is 390 ± 231 ml. Production and composition of milk are not statistically affected by biotype. The milk composition of this goat presents 5.5 ± 1.9 % Fat, 8.2 ± 0.83 % NFS, 137 ± 2.1 % Total Solids, 4.5 ± 0.47 % Lactose, 3 ± 0.3 % Protein, 0.68 ± 0.07 % Mineral Salts, and pH 6.7 ± 0.26. <strong>Implication.</strong> Analyze the productive performance and quality of the milk of this goat in semi-intensive management and using shrub resources present in abundance in this ecosystem (<em>Croton spp, Ipomea carnea</em>), would help to improve management conditions and value this local zoogenetic resource. <strong>Conclusions.</strong> With the information obtained from this study, those animals with a tendency to produce quality milk in this population can be standardized for selection, management, and multiplication.</p>

Assessing tropical cyclone risk for improving mitigation strategies in Coastal Odisha, India.

Tropical cyclone causes large-scale devastation and destruction in the coastal plains of India, particularly in Odisha, which is the most cyclone-affected state in the country. Tropical cyclones are projected to be more powerful and widespread due to changing climate. Hence, the risk assessment of tropical cyclone is necessary to identify cyclone-risk areas in coastal Odisha which may help in the mitigation of the damages caused by cyclones. Therefore, this study utilizes geospatial techniques to produce a comprehensive risk map posed by tropical cyclones and to estimate the degree of risk for coastal districts of Odisha. For this, we evaluated the district-level cyclone risk for coastal Odisha using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technique by considering 21 parameters for each of the four components of risk, i.e., exposure, hazard, vulnerability, as well as mitigation capacity. For each criterion, thematic raster map layers were created and weighted using a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). We prepared individual risk component maps using weighted overlay techniques and finally integrated all indices to create the risk map. The study shows that 13% area of the study area comes under a very high-risk zone whereas, 25% area comes under a high-risk zone. The central (Cuttack, northern parts of Khordha, and south-western parts of Jajpur district) and the eastern part (most of the parts of Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, and northern parts of Puri district) of the study area come under high to very high tropical cyclone impact zone. Almost 67% of the total area is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones and mainly concentrated near the shoreline. The applied approach and results can assist the local authorities in identifying vulnerable and hazardous locations and developing workable solutions for the mitigation of revised cyclone threats in the coastal districts of Odisha.

Predicting Future Trends of Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Carbon Transport to Global River Systems

AbstractA fraction of CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is exported as organic carbon (C) through the terrestrial‐aquatic continuum. This translocated C plays a significant role in the terrestrial C balance; however, obtaining global assessments remains challenging due to the predominant reliance on empirical approaches. Leaching of dissolved organic C (DOC) from soils to rivers represents an important fraction of this C export and is assumed to drive a large proportion of the net‐heterotrophy of river systems and the related CO2 emissions. Using the model JULES‐DOCM, we projected DOC leaching trends over the 21st century based on three scenarios with high (RCP 2.6), intermediate (RCP 4.5), and low (RCP 8.5) climate mitigation efforts. The RCP 8.5 scenario led to the largest DOC leaching increase of +42% to 395 Tg C yr−1 by 2100. In comparison, RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 led to increases of 10% and 21%, respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the sub‐tropical zone showed the highest relative increase of 50% above current levels. In the boreal and tropical zones, the simulations revealed similar increases of 48% and 41%, respectively. However, given the pre‐eminence of the tropics in DOC leaching, the absolute increment is markedly substantial from this region (+59 Tg C yr−1). The temperate zone displayed the lowest relative increase with 35%. Our analysis identified the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and its fertilizing effect on terrestrial NPP as the main reason for the future increase in DOC leaching.

Conception, realization and testing of a solar cooker built with a spherical reflector in Burkina Faso

A system was conceived, realized and tested for solar cooking purpose. It has a spherical shape reflector as concentrator, mounted on two frames for a better orientation towards the sun. The engineering of the system makes it able to reach theoretical geometrical mean concentration of 720 and a theoretical efficiency of 0.42. Thus, the system is easy to manipulate since only the azimuth angle is tracked. An optional rocking of the reflector also allows the system to be used in equatorial and tropical zones when the sun goes closer to the zenith. Series of tests were conducted around November 20th, in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso with a latitude angle of 12.21°. Experiments on oil in a pot allowed it to reach successively a maximum temperature of 184°C at 1:00pm the first day and 221°C at 1:30pm the second day. Boiled sweet potatoes, fried sweet potatoes, spaghetti and fish dishes were cooked in a reasonable amount of time and ready for lunch. Water tests were also conducted around March 14th following the protocol, and allowing comparison with other systems. In conclusion, experiments were taken without rocking the system and by only tracking the azimuth angle. The water result gives convincing outcomes in comparison with other concentrating cooking systems. Most of all, sub-Saharan users will not have to change their habits: the system, by always concentrating, is less constricting for tracking the sun and less time consuming to manipulate. Finding the focal point and eye safety issues shall be addressed, but overall indicators, including financial one, give more credit for the system to be implemented in sub-Saharan region.

Three-dimensional Atmospheric Dynamics of Jupiter from Ground-based Doppler Imaging Spectroscopy in the Visible

We present three-dimensional (3D) maps of Jupiter’s atmospheric circulation at cloud-top level from Doppler-imaging data obtained in the visible domain with JIVE, the second node of the JOVIAL network, which is mounted on the Dunn Solar Telescope at Sunspot, New Mexico. We report on 12 nights of observations between 2018 May 4 and May 30, representing a total of about 80 hr. First, the average zonal wind profile derived from our data is compatible with that derived from cloud-tracking measurements performed on Hubble Space Telescope images obtained in 2018 April from the Outer Planet Atmospheres Legacy program. Second, we present the first ever 2D maps of Jupiter’s atmospheric circulation from Doppler measurements. The zonal velocity map highlights well-known atmospheric features, such as the equatorial hot spots and the Great Red Spot (GRS). In addition to zonal winds, we derive meridional and vertical velocity fields from the Doppler data. The motions attributed to vertical flows are mainly located at the boundary between the equatorial belts and tropical zones, which could indicate active motion in theses regions. Qualitatively, these results compare well to recent Juno data that have unveiled the 3D structure of Jupiter’s wind field. To the contrary, the motions attributed to meridional circulation are very different from what is obtained by cloud tracking, except at the GRS. Because of limitations with data resolution and processing techniques, we acknowledge that our measurements of the vertical or meridional flows of Jupiter are still to be confirmed.

Dense infraspecific sampling reveals cryptic differentiation in the enigmatic hemiparasitic love vine Cassytha filiformis (Lauraceae)

AbstractSpecies delimitation remains a challenge worldwide, especially in highly diverse tropical and subtropical regions. Here, we use an integrative approach that combines morphology, phylogenomics, and species distribution modeling (SDM) to clarify the cryptic differentiation within the enigmatic hemiparasitic love vine Cassytha filiformis (Lauraceae) in China and adjacent regions. We generated complete plastid genomes and nuclear ribosomal sequences for diverse samples from across the species range and compared results with previously published plastid data, recovering two well‐supported monophyletic clades. Further, the analysis revealed significant differences in two morphological characters and SDM, indicating distinct environmental factors influencing their distributions. Fossil‐calibrated analyses to estimate the origins and diversification patterns for the cryptic species gave divergence age estimates corresponding to the Oligo‐Miocene; a period of new ecological opportunities associated with the prevailing East Asian monsoon. Multivariate analyses support the conclusion that southern China and adjacent regions have a different, previously unknown, cryptic lineage of C. filiformis. Our study highlights the importance of using multivariate approach to characterize plant species, as well as the significant role that past climatic changes have played in driving speciation in parasitic plants in tropical and subtropical zones.

Tree species with potential for reforestation in coastal zones of the humid tropics

Aim of study: The native species of warm humid climates Ceiba pentandra, Tabebuia rosea, Gliricidia sepium, Enterolobium cyclocarpum and Brosimum alicastrum are often included in Mexican reforestation programs. We evaluated the growth response in sandy soils of these species that could serve as pioneers in the restoration of coastal areas. Area of study: Alluvial plain in Frontera, Tabasco, Mexico. Material and methods: A total of 1080 plants were planted in 2014 and evaluated for 23 months in 30 plots under a randomized block design with six replications. The sample plots each occupied 36 m2 (each with 16 plants). Survival percentage, stem height (SH), basal diameter (BD) and basal area (BA) were quantified. Survival and growth variables were analyzed using logistic regression and ANOVA for repeated measures, respectively. Main results: At the end of the experiment (2016), high survival was demonstrated in G. sepium (88 %) and in C. pentandra (86 %), while B. alicastrum presented total mortality at six months. The highest values of SH and BD were presented in C. pentandra (2.9 m and 7.8 cm, respectively) and in G. sepium (2.6 m and 4.2 cm, respectively). Gliricidia sepium differed significantly from C. pentandra in terms of BA (5.9 vs. 23 m2 ha-1, respectively). Research highlights: The native species C. pentandra and G. sepium presented high survival and growth in the sandy soils; G. sepium showed strong adaptation to the environment and C. pentandra offered suitable coverage, characteristics that are necessary for the success of reforestation and restoration programs.

Geneticizing input selection based advanced neural network model for sediment prediction in different climate zone

The study focuses on developing an accurate prediction model for suspended sediment load (SSL) based on antecedent SSL and water discharge values. Two Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, Hybrid and Parallel, were employed to test on the Kelantan and Mississippi Rivers in different climate zones and river sizes. The parallel model showed better performance than the hybrid in most cases, with the best results based on Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (432.06 and 782.15 respectively) for Kelantan and (31672.25 and 62356.60 respectively) for Mississippi. The multifunctional GA neural-network model results have proven its ability to predict SSL in tropical and semi-arid zones. In the Kelantan River, the 8-input combination set was the best prediction model, showing an improvement of more than 38% compared to traditional models. The proposed method has proven to be more accurate than traditional models, ensuring better water resource planning, agricultural management and reservoir operation.

Sexual Dimorphism in the Physiopathology and Immune Response during Acute Toxocara canis Infection.

Toxocara canis (T. canis) is a helminth parasite of zoonotic and veterinary health significance that causes the disease known as Toxocariasis. This disease has been associated with conditions of poverty, especially in tropical climate zones throughout the world. Although it rarely causes important clinical manifestations, T. canis can lead to blindness, meningoencephalitis, or other nervous manifestations in humans. Moreover, some studies show its importance in the development of tumor growth, which have been associated with the parasite's ability to modulate the host's immune response. While different studies have evaluated the immune response during this disease, currently, there are no studies where the infection is analyzed from the perspective of sexual dimorphism. To evaluate sex differences in susceptibility, we analyzed lesions and parasite loads in lung and liver at 7 days post-infection. In addition, immune cell subpopulations were analyzed in spleen, mesenteric and peripheral lymph nodes. Finally, the production of cytokines and specific antibodies were determined in the serum. Statical analyses were performed using a Two-way ANOVA and a post-hoc Bonferroni multiple comparison test. Female rats had a higher number of larvae in the liver, while male rats had them in the lungs. The percentages of immune cells were evaluated, and in most cases, no significant differences were observed. Regarding the cytokines production, infection can generate a decrease in Th1 such as IL-1β in both sexes and IL-6 only in females. In the case of Th2, IL-4 increases only in infected males and IL-5 increases in males while decreasing in females due to the effect of infection. IL-10 also decreases in both sexes as a consequence of the infection, and TGF-β only in females. Finally, the infection generates the production of antibodies against the parasite, however, their quantity is lower in females. This study demonstrates that T. canis infection is dimorphic and affects females more than males. This is due to a polarization of the inadequate immune response, which is reflected as a higher parasite load in this sex.

Blastocystis spp. and Other Intestinal Parasites in Polish Soldiers Deployed to Lebanon and Iraq.

Intestinal parasitic infections are one of the most common infectious diseases worldwide, particularly in developing countries. A distinct group at increased risk of infection is military personnel deployed overseas for extended periods, typically six months at a time. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of Blastocystis spp. and other intestinal parasites in Polish military personnel returning from deployments to Lebanon (n = 206) and Iraq (n = 220). In this group of subjects, we found Blastocystis spp. (13.6%), Dientamoeba fragilis (3.3%), Entamoeba coli (0.9%), and Endolimax nana (0.5%). Entamoeba histolytica sensu lato and Chilomastix mesnili infections were detected only in one soldier returning from Lebanon and Iraq, respectively. Blastocystis subtype (ST) 3 was predominant in soldiers returning from Lebanon, followed by ST2 and ST1. ST1 infection was predominant in soldiers returning from Iraq, followed by ST3 and ST2. Our study affirms that, deployment abroad is of no influence of the prevalence of parasitic protozoa. However, it would be worth to monitor parasite infection in military personnel returning from tropical zone even if they have no actual symptoms. In addition, it is very important to determine the subtypes of Blastocystis-this may help to clearly define their pathogenicity, especially considering the scarcity of studies on Blastocystis genotypes in Iraqi and Lebanese residents.

Molecular phylogeny and morphology reveal two new species of Conocybe (Bolbitiaceae, Agaricales) from southwest China

ABSTRACT Conocybe commonly occur as saprobes, are distributed in tropical, subtropical, and temperate zones worldwide. In the present study, two new species in Conocybe section Conocybe, viz. Conocybe qujingensis and Conocybe qujinguniversitatis, are proposed based on morphological investigations and phylogenetic analyses. Molecular analyses based on sequence data from the nuclear ribosomal ITS loci support the taxonomic position of the two new species in the genus Conocybe. We also provide illustrations, line drawings, comparisons with closely related taxa, and descriptions of the new taxa.

Land use dynamics in a tropical protected area buffer zone: is the management plan helping?

Land use dynamics in a tropical protected area buffer zone: is the management plan helping?

Evidence from temperature analog for traditional and economic cities in Nigeria: implications for sustainable city-related actions

Responding to the threats of climate change by cities requires taking relevant actions that will communicate future conditions in reliable and effective manner for sustainable and transformational climate actions. We used the analog approach to assess the geographical shifts and changes in average temperature conditions for six traditional and economic cities under different climate scenarios (Mitigated and Unmitigated scenarios). We calculated the similarity in temperature between each pixel for the current (2021–2050) and future (2041–2070) conditions of the cities, with every pixel globally in the historical (1971–200) period. Our analysis revealed that; (1) the temperature of the cities in the current and future periods will be similar to conditions of another place on the globe during the historical period; (2) Kano city will experience even more drastic changes because of the low level of similarity to other places; (3) the new places found with similar temperature conditions are generally to the south of the corresponding cities thus indicating warming. The overall results show that the analogues of the cities are within the domain of the global tropical zone which occurs around the equator. Drawing from the interaction between cities and their analogues, we highlighted sustainable city related actions such as the incorporation of urban designs and policies to enhance human thermal comfort as adaptation and solution strategies. While future research might apply qualitative studies and additional data to support the analog results, our findings can guide the understanding and application of the analog approach into environmental issues in Nigeria and other West African countries in accordance to sustainable city goals (SDG 11).

Prediction on the changes in potential suitable areas for mangroves along the coast of Guangxi and the threat from Spartina alterniflora invasion.

As one of the important blue carbon pools in tropical and subtropical intertidal zones, mangroves are widely distributed along the coast of Guangxi in China. To deeply explore the variations of potential suitable habitats for mangroves in China under the background of climate change, based on remote sensing interpretation data of coastal wetlands in Guangxi, global marine environment and bioclimatic environment data in 2021, we constructed a maximum entropy habitat distribution model to simulate the spatial distribution of potential suitable areas for mangroves and the invasive species, Spartina alterniflora, along the coast of Guangxi, and predicted the patterns under extreme climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the interpreted area of mangrove forests along the coastline of Guangxi was 9136.7 hm2 in 2021, while the predicted area of potential suitable habitat area was 55955.9 hm2. Current distribution area of mangroves had basically covered its potential high suitability area and nearly 10% of the moderate suitability area. The current area of S. alterniflora was 1320.4 hm2, and the predicted area of potential high suitability area was twice of current area, indicating that there was still a large proportion of high suitability area that was not occupied by S. alterniflora. The most important environmental factors driving the distribution of potential habitats in mangroves were offshore Euclidean distance (62.2%), terrain deviation index (8.7%), average sea surface temperature in the hottest season (6.1%), and seabed terrain elevation (5.6%). The contribution of geographical conditions on mangrove distribution was predominant. Under the climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), potential suitable area for mangroves would increase by 5.3%, while that for S. alterniflora would decrease by 3.1%. The overlapping proportion of the potential suitable area for mangroves and S. alterniflora was similar under current and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, being 15.2% and 14.5%, respectively. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the protection and ecological restoration of mangroves along the coast of Guangxi and there is great challenge for preventing further invasion of S. alterniflora.