Tropical Volcanic Eruptions Research Articles

Extreme Tibetan Plateau cooling caused by tropical volcanism

The extreme cooling of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the boreal winter typically poses threats to the local environment and people’s safety, and it is usually attributed to internal climate variability. Here we demonstrate that the five recent large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1880 have caused an average extreme cooling of up to −0.80 K on the TP in observations during the first boreal winter following the eruptions. This cooling effect is much larger than the global average terrestrial cooling of −0.30 K after the eruptions. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), in which realistic sea surface temperatures (SST) were specified, can simulate an extreme TP cooling response of up to −0.79 K, which is much larger than the direct aerosol cooling of −0.36 K simulated by the historical runs. The positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomaly during the post-eruption winter after the eruptions plays a key role in amplifying the TP cooling through atmospheric teleconnection, which overwhelms the warming response associated with the frequently occurring El Niños. The results from this study provide a perspective on the potential contribution of volcanic activity or stratospheric sulfur injection scenarios to specific TP cooling.

Linearity of the Climate Response to Increasingly Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in a Large Ensemble Framework

Abstract Large explosive volcanic eruptions cause short-term climatic impacts on both regional and global scales. Their impact on tropical climate variability, in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is still uncertain, as is their combined and separate effect on tropical and global precipitation. Here, we investigate the relationship between large-scale temperature and precipitation and tropical volcanic eruption strength, using 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles for idealized equatorial symmetric Northern Hemisphere summer eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths. Our results show that for idealized tropical eruptions, global and hemispheric mean near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are negative and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions between 10 and 40 Tg S. We identify 20 Tg S emission as a threshold where the global ensemble-mean near-surface temperature and precipitation signals exceed the range of internal variability, even though some ensemble members emerge from variability for lower eruption strengths. Seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are highly correlated across eruption strengths, in particular for larger emission strengths in the tropics, and strongly modulated by ENSO. There is a tendency to shift toward a warm ENSO phase for the first postvolcanic year as the emission strength increases. Volcanic cooling emerges on a hemisphere-wide scale, while the precipitation response is more localized, and emergence is mainly confined to the tropics and subtropics. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to investigate at which strength the climate responses of volcanic forcing can be distinguished from the internal climate variability and whether the responses will linearly increase as the emission strengths become stronger. We ran 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles of idealized equatorial volcanic eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths and find that seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are distinguishable and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions from 10 to 40 Tg S if their forcing patterns are similar. The identification of volcanic fingerprints is important for seasonal to decadal forecasts in the case of potential future eruptions and could help to prepare society for the regional climatic consequences of such an event.

Dryland hydroclimatic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

Drylands are highly vulnerable to climate change due to their fragile ecosystems and limited ability to adapt. In contrast to the global drying after tropical volcanic eruptions shown previously, we demonstrate that large tropical volcanic eruptions can induce significant two-year hydroclimatic wetting over drylands by employing the last millennium simulations. During this wetting period, which extends from the first to the third boreal winter after the eruption, several hydroclimatic indicators, such as self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman-Monteith equation for potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), aridity index (AI), top-10cm soil moisture (SM10cm), and leaf area index (LAI), show significant positive anomalies over most drylands. The primary contribution to the wetting response is the potential evapotranspiration (PET) reduction resulting from dryland surface cooling and reduced solar radiation, as well as a weak contribution from increased precipitation. The latter is due to the wind convergence into drylands caused by slower tropical cooling compared to drylands. The wetting response of drylands to volcanic eruptions also demonstrates some benefits over the global hydrological slowdown resulting from stratospheric aerosol injection, which replicates the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions to address global warming.

Seasonal Dependence of Recovery From Surface Cooling Induced by Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractThis study investigates the response of surface air temperature (SAT) to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (STVEs), focusing on the seasonal anchoring of SAT recovery, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 climate model outputs. The decrease in SAT was more significant in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. After the STVEs, shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) decreased rapidly and reached a minimum in approximately 6 months, whereas the decrease in SAT lasted for approximately 1 year; thus, the SAT minima lagged behind those of SW. The recovery of SAT from the major minimum SAT after the STVEs occurred in the same seasons, the second boreal autumn and winter. The SAT recovery occurred during the climatologically low solar radiation season after the STVEs. During this season, the decreasing effects of the downward SW (DSRS) by volcanic aerosols could become negligible. The weakening of the decrease in SAT and DSRS had a seasonal cycle in the high‐latitude regions of both hemispheres, which could be a significant factor in the seasonal alignment of returning SATs. Furthermore, the SAT response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was examined using composite analysis based on the initial state of ENSO. The influence of ENSO on surface cooling after the STVE was at least 1/5 that of the STVEs and might exceed that of the STVEs, particularly in moderate STVEs. These results were commonly found in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models.

Rapid ozone depletion after humidification of the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga Eruption.

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 offered a good opportunity to explore the early impacts of tropical volcanic eruptions on stratospheric composition. Balloon-borne observations near Réunion Island revealed the unprecedented amount of water vapor injected by the volcano. The enhanced stratospheric humidity, radiative cooling, and expanded aerosol surface area in the volcanic plume created the ideal conditions for swift ozone depletion of 5% in the tropical stratosphere in just 1 week. The decrease in hydrogen chloride by 0.4 parts per million by volume (ppbv) and the increase in chlorine monoxide by 0.4 ppbv provided compelling evidence for chlorine activation within the volcanic plume. This study enhances our understanding of the effect of this unusual volcanic eruption on stratospheric chemistry and provides insights into possible chemistry changes that may occur in a changing climate.

The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Stratospheric Water Vapor Increases After Large‐Magnitude Explosive Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractSubstantial and prolonged enhancements in stratospheric water vapor (SWV) have occurred after large‐magnitude explosive tropical volcanic eruptions, with modified tropopause entry caused by aerosol‐absorptive heating. Here, we analyze the timing and longevity of heating‐driven post‐eruption SWV changes within CMIP6‐VolMIP short‐term climate‐response experiments with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). We find aerosol‐absorptive heating causes peak SWV increases of 17% (∼1 ppmv) and 10% (0.5 ppmv) at 100 and 50 hPa, at ∼18 and ∼23 months after a Pinatubo‐like eruption, respectively. We track the temperature response in the tropical lower stratosphere and identify the main SWV increase occurs only after the descending aerosol heating reaches the tropopause, suggesting a key role for aerosol microphysical processes (sedimentation rate). We explore how El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability modulates this effect. Post‐eruption SWV increases are ∼80% stronger for the La Nina phase compared to the ensemble mean. Tropical upwelling strongly mediates this effect.

Tropical Volcanic Eruptions and Low Frequency Indo‐Pacific Variability Drive Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole Events

AbstractVolcanic eruptions can have significant climate impacts and serve as useful natural experiments for better understanding the effects of abrupt, externally forced climate change. Here, we investigate the Indian Ocean Dipole's (IOD) response to the largest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Post‐eruption composites show a strong negative IOD developing in the eruption year, and a positive IOD the following year. The IOD and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show a long‐term damped oscillatory response that can take up to 8 years to return to pre‐eruptive baselines. Moreover, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) phase at the time of eruption controls the IOD response to intense eruptions, with negative (positive) IPO phasing favoring more negative (positive) IOD values via modulation of the background state of the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth. These results have important implications for climate risk in low‐likelihood, high‐impact scenarios, particularly in vulnerable communities unprepared for IOD and ENSO extremes.

The weather diary of Georg Christoph Eimmart for Nuremberg, 1695–1704

Abstract. Data from weather diaries have long been used to reconstruct past climate. However, they could also be used to reconstruct past weather. Weather reconstructions could help us to better understand the mechanisms behind, and impacts of, climatic changes. However, reconstructing the day-to-day weather requires many diaries from different regions covering the same period, ideally combined with instrumental measurements. In this paper, I describe the weather diary of Georg Christoph Eimmart from Nuremberg, covering the period 1695 to 1704, which was particularly cold in Europe. The diary was imaged from the Russian National Library in St. Petersburg and then digitized. It contains twice-daily weather conditions in symbolic form, wind direction details, and information on precipitation and temperature in text form. Symbols changed during the first 2 years, after which a much-reduced (and stable) set of symbols was used. Re-coding all days according to the later set of symbols, I find no signs of inconsistency over time in symbols, wind direction, and precipitation information extracted from the text. Comparisons with other sources confirm the day-to-day weather information in the diary. For instance, the wind direction in Nuremberg agrees with the daily pressure gradient between Jena and Paris. Three case studies further confirm the meteorological reliability of the information. This is shown on behalf of an 8 d sequence of stormy weather in 1702, a study of the severe winter of 1697/98, and a study of the summer of 1695, which was cold and wet, possibly related to tropical volcanic eruptions. The examples underline the consistency of the weather diary with other information and suggest that weather reconstructions as far back as the late 17th century might become possible. However, the spatial information is limited, and any approach arguably needs to make good use of the temporal sequence of information.

On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions that inject sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which can affect weather and transport of chemical species. Here, we conduct simulations of tropical volcanic eruptions using the UM-UKCA aerosol-climate model with an explicit representation of the QBO. Eruptions emitting 60 Tg of SO2 (i.e. the magnitude of the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption) and 15 Tg of SO2 (i.e. the magnitude of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption) were initiated at the Equator during two different QBO states. We show that tropical eruptions delay the progression of the QBO phases, with the magnitude of the delay dependent on the initial wind shear in the lower stratosphere and a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. The QBO response in our model is driven by vertical advection of momentum by the stronger tropical upwelling caused by heating due to the increased volcanic sulfate aerosol loading. Direct aerosol-induced warming with subsequent thermal wind adjustment, as proposed by previous studies, is found to only play a secondary role. This interpretation of the response is supported by comparison with a simple dynamical model. The dependence of the magnitude of the response on the initial QBO state results from differences in the QBO secondary circulation. In the easterly shear zone of the QBO, the vertical component of the secondary circulation is upward and reinforces the anomalous upwelling driven by volcanic aerosol heating, whereas in the westerly shear zone the vertical component is downward and opposes the aerosol-induced upwelling. We also find a change in the latitudinal structure of the QBO, with the westerly phase of the QBO strengthening in the hemisphere with the lowest sulfate aerosol burden. Overall, our study suggests that tropical eruptions of Pinatubo magnitude or larger could force changes to the progression of the QBO, with particularly disruptive outcomes for the QBO if the eruption occurs during the easterly QBO shear.

Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific.

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.

Tropical volcanic eruptions reduce vegetation net carbon uptake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under background climate conditions.

The vegetation carbon uptake plays an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), while it is extremely sensitive to the impact of natural external forcings. Until now, there is limited knowledge on the spatial-temporal patterns of vegetation net carbon uptake (VNCU) after the force that caused by tropical volcanic eruptions. Here, we conducted an exhaustive reconstruction of VNCU on the QTP over the last millennium, and used a superposed epoch analysis to characterize the VNCU response of the QTP after the tropical volcanic eruptions. We then further investigated the divergent changes of VNCU response across different elevation gradients and vegetation types, and the impact of teleconnection forcing on VNCU after volcanic eruptions. Within a climatic background, we found that VNCU of the QTP tends to decrease after large volcanic eruptions, lasting until about 3 years, with a maximum decrease value occurring in the following 1 year. The spatial and temporal patterns of the VNCU were mainly driven by the post-eruption climate and moderated by the negative phase trends of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. In addition, elevation and vegetation types were undeniable driving forces associated with VNCU on QTP. Different water-heat conditions and vegetation types contributed to significant differences in the response and recovery processes of VNCU. Our results emphasized the response and recovery processes of VNCU to volcanic eruptions without the strong anthropogenic forcings, while the influence mechanisms of natural forcing on VNCU should receive more attention.

The influence of the Asian summer monsoon on volcanic aerosol transport in the UTLS region

This study analyses the influence of the Asian summer monsoon on volcanic aerosol transport. Realistic, altitude-resolved SO2 emissions of a middle-latitude volcanic eruption (Sarychev 2009) and a tropical volcanic eruption (Nabro 2011) were retrieved and used to initialize the simulations of the long-range transport and dispersion of the sulfate aerosol plumes. The barrier effect of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) isolated the Sarychev eruption plume outside of the ASMA but constrained the Nabro eruption plume inside of the ASMA, which is most evident in the UTLS region between isotropic surfaces of 360–420 K. Meanwhile, the ASMA could transport a fraction of the plume outside of ASMA quasi-horizontally to the tropical tropopause layer along the southeastern periphery of the anticyclonic circulation, and lift the volcanic plume inside the ASMA anticyclonically across the tropopause with an ascent rate of approximately 0.8 K/day. By enhancing the meridional transport in the UTLS region and lifting volcanic aerosols across the tropopause, the ASMA significantly expanded the potential effects of volcanic eruptions.

Revisiting the Mechanisms of ENSO Response to Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractStratospheric volcanic aerosol can have major impacts on global climate. Despite a consensus among studies on an El Niño‐like response in the first or second post‐eruption year, the mechanisms that trigger a change in the state of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) following volcanic eruptions are still debated. Here, we shed light on the processes that govern the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions through a series of sensitivity experiments with an Earth System Model where a uniform stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading is imposed over different parts of the tropics. Three tropical mechanisms are tested: the “ocean dynamical thermostat” (ODT); the cooling of the Maritime Continent; and the cooling of tropical northern Africa (NAFR). We find that the NAFR mechanism plays the largest role, while the ODT mechanism is absent in our simulations as La Niña‐like rather than El‐Niño‐like conditions develop following a uniform radiative forcing over the equatorial Pacific.

Relative Roles of Land and Ocean Cooling in Triggering an El Niño Following Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractPaleoclimate evidence suggests that tropical volcanic eruptions could increase the likelihood of El Niño occurrence. Previous numerical model studies with zonally uniform volcanic aerosol forcing suggested the roles of land cooling‐induced monsoon suppression and ocean cooling‐induced air‐sea interaction in triggering an El Niño following the eruption. Here, we perform targeted sensitivity experiments by confining aerosol forcing over land or ocean only in the fully coupled Community Earth System Model to assess relative roles of these land and ocean cooling. Our results indicate that volcanic aerosol over land, especially over the large landmass of tropical Africa, is more effective in exciting an El Niño than over ocean. The suppressed African monsoon excites Kelvin‐wave westerly wind anomalies over the tropical central Pacific, triggering an El Niño through the Bjerknes feedback. Under the uniform ocean aerosol forcing, the Indian Ocean's fast dipole response induces a slow western Pacific El Niño‐like cooling in the second year.

Variable Response in Alpine Tree-Ring Stable Isotopes Following Volcanic Eruptions in the Tropics and Iceland

The importance of the stable isotopes in tree rings for the study of the climate variations caused by volcanic eruptions is still unclear. We studied δ18O, δD, δ13C stable isotopes of larch and cembran pine cellulose around four major eruptions with annual resolution, along with a superposed epoch analysis of 34 eruptions with 5-year resolution. Initial analysis of the tropical Tambora (1815 CE) and Samalas (1257 CE) eruptions showed a post-eruption decrease in δ18O values attributed to post-volcanic cooling and increased summer precipitation in Southern Europe, as documented by observations and climate simulations. The post-volcanic cooling was captured by the δD of speleothem fluid inclusion. The δ18O decrease was also observed in the analysis of 34 major tropical eruptions over the last 2000 years. In contrast, the eruptions of c. 750, 756, and 764 CE attributed to Icelandic volcanoes left no significant responses in the cellulose isotopes. Further analysis of all major Icelandic eruptions in the last 2000 years showed no consistent isotopic fingerprints, with the exception of lower post-volcanic δ13C values in larch. In summary, the δ18O values of cellulose can provide relevant information on climatic and hydroclimatic variations following major tropical volcanic eruptions, even when using the 5-year resolution wood samples of the Alpine Tree-Ring Isotope Record database.

Response of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau to large tropical volcanic eruptions in the last millennium

Response of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau to large tropical volcanic eruptions in the last millennium

Decadal modulation of East Asian summer monsoon variations by external forcing and internal variability

Both external forcing and internal climate variability are playing significant roles in driving the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) changes. However, dynamic linkages between these natural forcings and EASM on decadal timescales remain uncertain, partly due to the limited instrumental climate data. Here, we present a high-resolution EASM record over the past 200 years based on 2315 δ18O measurements from two annually laminated stalagmites (YX92 and YX120) in Yongxing Cave over the middle Yangtze River Valley (mid-YRV). Our records match well with the δ18O records from the nearby Heshang Cave, showing that EASM intensity in the mid-YRV varies at a dominant periodicity of ∼80 years. The multidecadal-scale oscillations in the EASM intensity are closely related to the ENSO-like states, supporting a notion that the ENSO dominantly modulates the EASM variability. Furthermore, the decadal oscillations in EASM and ENSO are synchronous with tropical volcanic eruptions during the solar minima, probably leading to the enhanced El Niño-like response, intensified EASM and strengthened ENSO-EASM coupling. Our findings imply that external forcings potentially contribute to the anomalies in ENSO and EASM during the ongoing global warming.

Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium

Extreme East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall frequently induces floods that threaten millions of people, and has been generally attributed to internal climate variability. In contrast to the hydrological weakening theory of volcanic eruptions, here we present convergent empirical and modeling evidence for significant intensification of EASM rainfall in response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Our multi-proxy analyses show a significantly increased EASM in the first summer after tropical eruptions from 1470 AD to the present, and the more frequent occurrence of El Niños in the first boreal winter after eruptions is necessary for the enhanced EASM. Model simulation ensembles show that a volcano-induced El Niño and the associated stronger than non-volcanic El Niño warm pool air-sea interaction intensify EASM precipitation, overwhelming volcanic-induced moisture deficiency. This work sheds light on the intertwined relationship between external forcing and internal climate variability and potential flood disasters resulting from tropical volcanic eruptions.

Tree‐ring oxygen isotope recorded precipitation variations over the past two centuries in the northeast Chinese Loess Plateau

AbstractIt was shown in previous studies that tree‐ring oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) was a proxy of regional precipitation. Using two δ18OTR chronologies of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. in northeast Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), we synthesized a master series which had a high correlation with regional precipitation from previous‐year September to current‐year August (PSA) (r = −0.650, N = 52, p < .001). Thus we reconstructed the PSA over the past two centuries (AD 1808–2009) for the northeast CLP. The results of calibration–verification tests indicated that the precipitation reconstruction was stable and reliable. Compared with reconstructions based on the tree‐ring width and historical documents, the PSA reconstruction reserved more decadal low‐frequency climate signals such as the drying trend since the 1930s. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) showed that the large tropical volcanic eruptions significantly reduced PSA in the first year after the eruptions. The contrast of the regional precipitation reconstructions in the west, northeast, and southeast CLP demonstrated that spatial and temporal differences of precipitation variation. In terms of extreme climate events, major droughts in the mid‐to‐late 1920s were recorded in all three regional precipitation records, while the Ding‐Wu Disaster (AD 1876–1878) was only found in the southeast CLP. Under the background of the weakening Asian monsoon and global warming, CLP was more prone to droughts in the last five decades.

ENSO’s Response to Volcanism in a Data Assimilation‐Based Paleoclimate Reconstruction Over the Common Era

AbstractThe tropical response to explosive volcanism remains underconstrained in the paleoclimate record. While the atmosphere cools due to aerosol forcing following volcanic eruptions, modeling evidence suggests that the tropical Pacific responds with compensatory warming. Given the rarity of large volcanic eruptions and the short instrumental record, these modeling results require independent verification. Here, we test for links between volcanism and tropical Pacific dynamics using the newly developed Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), which spans the past 2,000 years. Using Pacific sea surface temperature fields from PHYDA and coincident volcanic eruptions, we test the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to large, tropical volcanic eruptions. We identify a weak El Niño‐like response of the tropical Pacific in the year following sufficiently large, tropical volcanic eruptions. While the response is not significant at the 95% confidence level using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) and self‐organizing maps, a significant result does emerge when employing probability density functions. Our results indicate that the widely used SEA approach, based on composite averaging, may not be sufficiently sensitive to capture an ENSO response in the presence of large internal variability. We additionally conclude that inconsistencies in both the spatial patterns and magnitudes between climate models and PHYDA results indicate that current models overestimate the regional tropical response to volcanic forcing.