Tropical Volcanic Eruptions Research Articles

The relationship between large volcanic eruptions in different latitudinal zones and spatial patterns of winter temperature anomalies over China

We identified regional differences over China of winter temperature response to large volcanic eruptions with different latitudes and seasons from 1956 to 2005, and investigated atmospheric circulations for corresponding spatial patterns of winter temperature anomalies using reanalysis data and simulations by the Community Earth System Model. Both observations and simulations show that spatial patterns of winter temperature anomalies over China are related to the latitudes and seasons of the eruptions. Tropical volcanic eruptions during summer led to winter temperature decreases of 0.4–1.6 °C in eastern China due to the increase of height gradient. Winter volcanic eruptions led to extensive warming over Tibet. Following summer volcanic eruptions at low latitude, there were warm winters in eastern China because of a weak Siberian high. An anomalous southerly wind caused slight warming over most of China following winter eruptions. With the typical “trough–ridge–trough” at high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, the winter temperature decreased in northeastern China and increased in western China following summer eruptions at mid-latitude. However, temperature generally increased after winter eruptions. For summer eruptions at high latitude, winter temperature showed a coherent decrease over northwest and east-central China due to an intensified Siberian High and East Asian trough. The widespread warming occurred over China because of the meridional circulation between 65°N and 45°N was weaker following winter volcanic eruptions.

Last phase of the Little Ice Age forced by volcanic eruptions

During the first half of the nineteenth century, several large tropical volcanic eruptions occurred within less than three decades. The global climate effects of the 1815 Tambora eruption have been investigated, but those of an eruption in 1808 or 1809 whose source is unknown and the eruptions in the 1820s and 1830s have received less attention. Here we analyse the effect of the sequence of eruptions in observations, global three-dimensional climate field reconstructions and coupled climate model simulations. All the eruptions were followed by substantial drops of summer temperature over the Northern Hemisphere land areas. In addition to the direct radiative effect, which lasts 2–3 years, the simulated ocean–atmosphere heat exchange sustained cooling for several years after these eruptions, which affected the slow components of the climate system. Africa was hit by two decades of drought, global monsoons weakened and the tracks of low-pressure systems over the North Atlantic moved south. The low temperatures and increased precipitation in Europe triggered the last phase of the advance of Alpine glaciers. Only after the 1850s did the transition into the period of anthropogenic warming start. We conclude that the end of the Little Ice Age was marked by the recovery from a sequence of volcanic eruptions, which makes it difficult to define a single pre-industrial baseline. Large volcanic eruptions in the first half of the nineteenth century blurred the transition from the Little Ice Age to anthropogenic warming, and led to sustained cooling, drought in Africa and weakened monsoons, suggests a combination of observations and model simulations.

Global ozone depletion and increase of UV radiation caused by pre-industrial tropical volcanic eruptions

Large explosive tropical volcanic eruptions inject high amounts of gases into the stratosphere, where they disperse globally through the large-scale meridional circulation. There is now increasing observational evidence that volcanic halogens can reach the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Here, we present the first study that combines measurement-based data of sulfur, chlorine and bromine releases from tropical volcanic eruptions with complex coupled chemistry climate model simulations taking radiative-dynamical-chemical feedbacks into account. Halogen model input parameters represent a size-time-region-wide average for the Central American eruptions over the last 200 ka ensuring a comprehensive perspective. The simulations reveal global, long-lasting impact on the ozone layer affecting atmospheric composition and circulation for a decade. Column ozone drops below 220 DU (ozone hole conditions) in the tropics, Arctic and Antarctica, increasing biologically active UV by 80 to 400%. Our model results could potentially be validated using high-resolution proxies from ice cores and pollen records.

Strong link between large tropical volcanic eruptions and severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas revealed by tree-ring records

Large tropical volcanic eruptions can cause short-term global cooling. However, little is known whether large tropical volcanic eruptions, like the one in Tambora/Indonesia in 1815, cause regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Using a tree-ring network of precisely dated Himalayan birch in the central Himalayas, we reconstructed variations in the regional pre-monsoon precipitation back to 1650 CE. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the pre-monsoon regional droughts are associated with large tropical volcanic eruptions, appearing to have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions in the central Himalayas. In fact, the most severe drought since 1650 CE occurred after the Tambora eruption. These results suggest that dry conditions prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas were associated with explosive tropical volcanism. Prolonged La Niña events also correspond with persistent pre-monsoon droughts in the central Himalayas. Our results provide evidence that large tropical volcanic eruptions most likely induced severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas.

Pacing of Red Sea Deep Water Renewal During the Last Centuries

AbstractThe Red Sea is a deep marine basin often considered as small‐scale version of the global ocean. Hydrographic observations and ocean‐atmosphere modeling indicate Red Sea deep water was episodically renewed by wintertime open‐ocean deep convections during 1982–2001, suggesting a renewal time on the order of a decade. However, the long‐term pacing of Red Sea deep water renewals is largely uncertain. We use an annually resolved coral oxygen isotope record of winter surface water conditions to show that the late twentieth century deep water renewals were probably unusual in the context of the preceding ~100 years. More frequent major events are detected during the late Little Ice Age, particularly during the early nineteenth century characterized by large tropical volcanic eruptions. We conclude that Red Sea deep water renewal time is on the order of a decade up to a century, depending on the mean climatic conditions and large‐scale interannual climate forcing.

The Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions: The Key Roles of Stratospheric Warming and Eddy Interactions

Proxy data and observations suggest that large tropical volcanic eruptions induce a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet stream in boreal winter. However, there is far from universal agreement in models on this effect and its mechanism, and the possibilities of a corresponding jet shift in the Southern Hemisphere or the summer season have received little attention. Using a hierarchy of simplified atmospheric models, this study examines the impact of stratospheric aerosol on the extratropical circulation over the annual cycle. In particular, the models allow the separation of the dominant shortwave (surface cooling) and longwave (stratospheric warming) impacts of volcanic aerosol. It is found that stratospheric warming shifts the jet poleward in both the summer and winter hemispheres. The experiments cannot definitively rule out the role of surface cooling, but they provide no evidence that it shifts the jet poleward. Further study with simplified models demonstrates that the response to stratospheric warming is remarkably generic and does not depend critically on the boundary conditions (e.g., the planetary wave forcing) or the atmospheric physics (e.g., the treatment of radiative transfer and moist processes). It does, however, fundamentally involve both zonal-mean and eddy circulation feedbacks. The time scales, seasonality, and structure of the response provide further insight into the mechanism, as well as its connection to modes of intrinsic natural variability. These findings have implications for the interpretation of comprehensive model studies and for postvolcanic prediction.

Temperature responses of Turkey’s climate to the tropical volcanic eruptions over second half of the twentieth century

We examine the climatic responses of major tropical eruptions in maximum and minimum surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) records in Turkey using superposed epoch analysis for volcanic eruptions of the Agung, El Chichon and Pinatubo volcanos. Within the first 2 years following a tropical volcanic eruption, the observed Tmax and Tmin data showed dominant negative anomalies over Turkey. Two winter seasons following the eruption year tended to be the most sensitive. Winter cooling may also be explained by dynamic effects due to the occurrence of positive NAO event for both the first and second post-volcanic winters. Maximum air temperatures experienced a more marked cooling than minimum ones. This is possibly due to the radiative forcing effect of the volcanic aerosols. The air temperature responses of Turkey to volcanic eruptions revealed evidently regional differences. Negative temperature anomalies were observed mainly over the Mediterranean coasts and Central Anatolia Region, while weak or even opposite anomalies occurred on the shores of the Black Sea Region and at the stations of north of the Marmara Sub-region near the Black Sea.

Long-range transport of volcanic aerosol from the 2010 Merapi tropical eruption to Antarctica

Abstract. Volcanic sulfate aerosol is an important source of sulfur for Antarctica, where other local sources of sulfur are rare. Midlatitude and high-latitude volcanic eruptions can directly influence the aerosol budget of the polar stratosphere. However, tropical eruptions can also enhance polar aerosol load following long-range transport. In the present work, we analyze the volcanic plume of a tropical eruption, Mount Merapi in 2010, and investigate the transport pathway of the volcanic aerosol from the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) to the lower stratosphere over Antarctica. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) SO2 measurements to reconstruct the altitude-resolved SO2 injection time series during the explosive eruption period and simulate the transport of the volcanic plume using the MPTRAC model. AIRS SO2 and aerosol measurements, the aerosol cloud index values provided by Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), are used to verify and complement the simulations. The Lagrangian transport simulation of the volcanic plume is compared with MIPAS aerosol measurements and shows good agreement. Both the simulations and the observations presented in this study suggest that volcanic plumes from the Merapi eruption were transported to the south of 60∘ S 1 month after the eruption and even further to Antarctica in the following months. This relatively fast meridional transport of volcanic aerosol was mainly driven by quasi-horizontal mixing from the TTL to the extratropical lower stratosphere, and most of the quasi-horizontal mixing occurred between the isentropic surfaces of 360 to 430 K. When the plume went to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, the polar vortex was displaced from the South Pole, so that the volcanic plume was carried to the South Pole without penetrating the polar vortex. Although only 4 % of the sulfur injected by the Merapi eruption was transported into the lower stratosphere south of 60∘ S, the Merapi eruption contributed up to 8800 t of sulfur to the Antarctic lower stratosphere. This indicates that the long-range transport under favorable meteorological conditions enables a moderate tropical volcanic eruption to be an important remote source of sulfur for the Antarctic stratosphere.

Tropical Atlantic Response to Last Millennium Volcanic Forcing

Climate responses to volcanic eruptions include changes in the distribution of temperature and precipitation such as those associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent studies suggest an ENSO-positive phase after a volcanic eruption. In the Atlantic Basin, a similar mode of variability is referred as the Atlantic Niño, which is related to precipitation variability in West Africa and South America. Both ENSO and Atlantic Niño are characterized in the tropics by conjoined fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST), zonal winds, and thermocline depth. Here, we examine possible responses of the Tropical Atlantic to last millennium volcanic forcing via SST, zonal winds, and thermocline changes. We used simulation results from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble single-forcing experiment ranging from 850 to 1850 C.E. Our results show an SST cooling in the Tropical Atlantic during the post-eruption year accompanied by differences in the Atlantic Niño associated feedback. However, we found no significant deviations in zonal winds and thermocline depth related to the volcanic forcing in the first 10 years after the eruption. Changes in South America and Africa monsoon precipitation regimes related to the volcanic forcing were detected, as well as in the Intertropical Convergence Zone position and associated precipitation. These precipitation responses derive primarily from Southern and Tropical volcanic eruptions and occur predominantly during the austral summer and autumn of the post-eruption year.

A Subsurface Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractThe impacts of explosive volcanism on the densely populated Indian Ocean (IO) region remain elusive. Dedicated sensitivity experiments indicate that tropical volcanic eruptions induce a stronger surface cooling over Africa than of ocean, promoting westerlies in the equatorial IO. These westerlies drive a subsurface response reminiscent to that of a negative IO Dipole (IOD) during autumn in the year of eruption. The eruption also drives an enhanced cooling over the northwestern IO as a direct response to climatological cloud cover distribution. The resulting anomalous zonal sea surface temperature gradient contributes to enhance equatorial westerly anomalies in summer. The response is sensitive to the IO preconditioning, being larger when the system is favorable to a positive IOD development. Volcanic eruptions also induce a subsurface IOD‐like response in the multimodel database from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 as well as a primary productivity decrease in the eastern IO.

Solar and volcanic forcing of North Atlantic climate inferred from a process-based reconstruction

Abstract. The effect of external forcings on atmospheric circulation is debated. Due to the short observational period, the analysis of the role of external forcings is hampered, making it difficult to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to external forcings, as well as persistence of the effects. In observations, the average response to tropical volcanic eruptions is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the following winter. However, past major tropical eruptions exceeding the magnitude of eruptions during the instrumental era could have had more lasting effects. Decadal NAO variability has been suggested to follow the 11-year solar cycle, and linkages have been made between grand solar minima and negative NAO. However, the solar link to NAO found by modeling studies is not unequivocally supported by reconstructions, and is not consistently present in observations for the 20th century. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric winter circulation for the North Atlantic region covering the period 1241–1970 CE. Based on seasonally resolved Greenland ice core records and a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model, we reconstruct sea level pressure and temperature by matching the spatiotemporal variability in the modeled isotopic composition to that of the ice cores. This method allows us to capture the primary (NAO) and secondary mode (Eastern Atlantic Pattern) of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, while, contrary to previous reconstructions, preserving the amplitude of observed year-to-year atmospheric variability. Our results show five winters of positive NAO on average following major tropical volcanic eruptions, which is more persistent than previously suggested. In response to decadal minima of solar activity we find a high-pressure anomaly over northern Europe, while a reinforced opposite response in pressure emerges with a 5-year time lag. On centennial timescales we observe a similar response of circulation as for the 5-year time-lagged response, with a high-pressure anomaly across North America and south of Greenland. This response to solar forcing is correlated to the second mode of atmospheric circulation, the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. The response could be due to an increase in blocking frequency, possibly linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre. The long-term anomalies of temperature during solar minima shows cooling across Greenland, Iceland and western Europe, resembling the cooling pattern during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850 CE). While our results show significant correlation between solar forcing and the secondary circulation pattern on decadal (r=0.29, p<0.01) and centennial timescales (r=0.6, p<0.01), we find no consistent relationship between solar forcing and NAO. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing impacts different modes of our reconstructed atmospheric circulation, which can aid in separating the regional effects of forcings and understanding the underlying mechanisms.

Assessing the Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Climate Extremes Using CMIP5 Models

Abstract This study analyzes extreme temperature and precipitation responses over the global land to five explosive tropical volcanic eruptions that occurred since the 1880s, using CMIP5 multimodel simulations. Changes in annual extreme indices during posteruption years are examined using a composite analysis. First, a robust global decrease in extreme temperature is found, which is stronger than the internal variability ranges (estimated from random bootstrap sampling). Intermodel correlation analysis shows a close relationship between annual extreme and mean temperature responses to volcanic forcing, indicating a similar mechanism at work. The cooling responses exhibit strong intermodel correlation with a decrease in surface humidity, consistent with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Second, extreme and mean precipitation reductions are observed during posteruption years, especially in Northern and Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon regions, with good intermodel agreement. The precipitation decreases are also larger than the internal variability ranges and are dominated by the monsoon regions. Moisture budget analysis further reveals that most of the precipitation decrease over the monsoon regions is explained by evaporation decrease, as well as dynamic and thermodynamic contributions. Interestingly, the dynamic effect is found to have a large influence on intermodel spread in precipitation responses, with high intermodel correlation with mean and extreme precipitation changes. These model-based results are largely supported by an observational analysis based on the Hadley Centre Global Climate Extremes Index 2 (HadEX2) dataset for the recent three volcanic eruptions. Our results demonstrate that temperature and precipitation extremes significantly respond to volcanic eruptions, largely resembling mean climate responses, which have important implications for geoengineering based on solar radiation management.

The influence of volcanic eruptions on weather regimes over the North Atlantic simulated by ECHAM5/MPI-OM ensemble runs from 800 to 2000 CE

The volcanic fingerprint on the winter North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and climate is analyzed in six ensemble runs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM covering 800–2000 CE, both for equatorial and Northern Hemisphere (NH) eruptions. Large volcanic eruptions influence climate on both annual and decadal time scales due to dynamic interactions of different climate components in the Earth's system. It is well known that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) tends to shift towards its positive phase during winter in the first 1–2 years after large tropical volcanic eruptions, causing warming over Europe, but other North Atlantic weather regimes have received less attention. Here we investigate the four dominant weather regimes in the North Atlantic: The negative and positive phase of NAO as well as the Atlantic Ridge, Scandinavian blocking. The volcanic fingerprint is detected as a change in the frequency of occurrence and anomalies in the wind and temperature fields as well as in the sea ice cover. We observe a strong significant increase in the frequency of Atlantic Ridge in the second year after equatorial eruptions that precede the NAO+ detected in year 3–5 as a result of a strong zonal wind anomalies in year 1–2. Evidence for a stronger polar vortex is detected in years 12–14 where NAO+ is detected both as a frequency increase and in the wind and temperature fields. A short-term response is also detected 2–4 years after NH eruptions. The longterm signal after NH eruptions indicate a weak polar vortex around a decade after an eruption. Although the signal after NH eruptions is weaker our results stress the need for further studies. The simulated atmospheric response recorded in ECHAM5 after volcanic eruptions suggest a more dynamic response than previously thought. The methodology used can also be applied to other forcing scenario, for example for future climate projections where the aim is to search for a long-term climate signal.

Aerosol particle size distribution in the stratosphere retrieved from SCIAMACHY limb measurements

Abstract. Information about aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere is of a great importance in the scientific community. While tropospheric aerosol influences the radiative balance of the troposphere and affects human health, stratospheric aerosol plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate change. In particular, information about the amount and distribution of stratospheric aerosols is required to initialize climate models, as well as validate aerosol microphysics models and investigate geoengineering. In addition, good knowledge of stratospheric aerosol loading is needed to increase the retrieval accuracy of key trace gases (e.g. ozone or water vapour) when interpreting remote sensing measurements of the scattered solar light. The most commonly used characteristics to describe stratospheric aerosols are the aerosol extinction coefficient and Ångström coefficient. However, the use of particle size distribution parameters along with the aerosol number density is a more optimal approach. In this paper we present a new retrieval algorithm to obtain the particle size distribution of stratospheric aerosol from space-borne observations of the scattered solar light in the limb-viewing geometry. While the mode radius and width of the aerosol particle size distribution are retrieved, the aerosol particle number density profile remains unchanged. The latter is justified by a lower sensitivity of the limb-scattering measurements to changes in this parameter. To our knowledge this is the first data set providing two parameters of the particle size distribution of stratospheric aerosol from space-borne measurements of scattered solar light. Typically, the mode radius and w can be retrieved with an uncertainty of less than 20 %. The algorithm was successfully applied to the tropical region (20° N–20° S) for 10 years (2002–2012) of SCIAMACHY observations in limb-viewing geometry, establishing a unique data set. Analysis of this new climatology for the particle size distribution parameters showed clear increases in the mode radius after the tropical volcanic eruptions, whereas no distinct behaviour of the absolute distribution width could be identified. A tape recorder, which describes the time lag as the perturbation propagates to higher altitudes, was identified for both parameters after the volcanic eruptions. A quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO) pattern at upper altitudes (28–32 km) is prominent in the anomalies of the analysed parameters. A comparison of the aerosol effective radii derived from SCIAMACHY and SAGE II data was performed. The average difference is found to be around 30 % at the lower altitudes, decreasing with increasing height to almost zero around 30 km. The data sample available for the comparison is, however, relatively small.

Interannual Weakening of the Tropical Pacific Walker Circulation Due to Strong Tropical Volcanism

In order to examine the response of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs), we analyzed a three-member long-term simulation performed with HadCM3, and carried out four additional CAM4 experiments. We found that the PWC shows a significant interannual weakening after SVEs. The cooling effect from SVEs is able to cool the entire tropics. However, cooling over the Maritime Continent is stronger than that over the central-eastern tropical Pacific. Thus, non-uniform zonal temperature anomalies can be seen following SVEs. As a result, the sea level pressure gradient between the tropical Pacific and the Maritime Continent is reduced, which weakens trade winds over the tropical Pacific. Therefore, the PWC is weakened during this period. At the same time, due to the cooling subtropical and midlatitude Pacific, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) are weakened and shift to the equator. These changes also contribute to the weakened PWC. Meanwhile, through the positive Bjerknes feedback, weakened trade winds cause El Nino-like SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific, which in turn further influence the PWC. Therefore, the PWC significantly weakens after SVEs. The CAM4 experiments further confirm the influences from surface cooling over the Maritime Continent and subtropical/midlatitude Pacific on the PWC. Moreover, they indicate that the stronger cooling over the Maritime Continent plays a dominant role in weakening the PWC after SVEs. In the observations, a weakened PWC and a related El Nino-like SST pattern can be found following SVEs.

A \u201cLa Ni\xf1a-like\u201d state occurring in the second year after large tropical volcanic eruptions during the past 1500\xa0years

Using an ensemble of nine El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reconstructed proxies and volcano eruption proxies for the past 1500 years, this study shows that a significant La Niña state emerges in the second year (year (2) hereafter) after large tropical volcanic eruptions. The reasons for the development of La Niña are investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In the volcanic eruption experiment (Vol), a robust La Niña signal occurs in year (2), resembling the proxy records. The eastward positioning of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) in Vol plays a critical role in the advanced decay of year (2) warming and the strong intensification of cooling in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The enhanced easterlies located on the southern edge of the WNPAC can stimulate consecutive oceanic upwelling Kelvin waves, shallowing the thermocline in the eastern Pacific, thereby resulting in a greater cooling rate by the enhanced thermocline feedback and cold zonal advection. Over the equatorial eastern Pacific, the reduced shortwave radiation contributes to the advanced decay of warming, while the upward latent heat flux augments the strong intensification of the cooling. Essentially, the eastward positioning of the WNPAC is a result of the volcanic forcing. The volcanic effect cools the maritime continent more than its adjacent oceans, thus pushing convective anomalies eastward during year (1). This induces vertical thermal advection and upward surface latent heat flux, thereby suppressing the development of warm Sea Surface Temperature over the central-western Pacific and causing the eastward positioning of the WNPAC in Vol.

Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation Using a High-Resolution AGCM

I thank Earth Science and Engineering Department, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia for providing computational facilities that were used to conduct model simulations. The observational and simulation results are available from the author upon request

Characteristics of Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Layer Observed by CALIOP and Ground Based Lidar at Equatorial Atmosphere Radar Site

We investigated the relation between major tropical volcanic eruptions in the equatorial region and the stratospheric aerosol data, which have been collected by the ground based lidar observations at at Equatorial Atmosphere Radar site between 2004 and 2015 and the CALIOP observations in low latitude between 2006 and 2015. We found characteristic dynamic behavior of volcanic stratospheric aerosol layers over equatorial region.

Unraveling Causes for the Changing Behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the Past Few Decades

AbstractObservations show that decadal (10–20 yr) to interdecadal (>20 yr) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows that of the Pacific until the 1960s. Since then, the TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas the Pacific SST shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and the decadal variability of the TIO SST is out of phase with that of the Pacific after around 1980. Here causes for the changing behavior of the TIO SST are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets and the recently available large-ensemble simulations from two climate models. It is found that on interdecadal time scales, the persistent TIO warming trend is caused by emergence of anthropogenic warming overcoming internal variability, while the time of emergence occurs much later in the Pacific. On decadal time scales, two major tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the 1980s and 1990s causing decadal SST cooling over the TIO during which the IPO was in warm phase, yielding the out-of-phase relation. The more evident fingerprints of external forcing in the TIO compared to the Pacific result from the much weaker TIO internal decadal–interdecadal variability, making the TIO prone to the external forcing. These results imply that the ongoing warming and natural external forcing may make the Indian Ocean more active, playing an increasingly important role in affecting regional and global climate.

Tree-ring based summer temperature regime reconstruction in XiaoXing Anling Mountains, northeastern China since 1772 CE

Long-term paleoclimatic variability based on high-resolution proxy records, such as tree-ring data, are scarce for the XiaoXing Anling Mountains of China. We developed a new tree-ring width chronology from Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) spanning the period 1667–2015. Climate-growth correlation analysis revealed that early growing season temperature was the main climatic factor controlling tree-ring growth. June mean temperatures from 1772 to 2015 were reconstructed using the standard chronology. These results provide the first dendroclimatological reconstruction based on growing season temperature in the XiaoXing Anling Mountains. Reconstruction results explained 39.3% of climatic variance over the calibration period 1959–2015, and they indicated that the central XiaoXing Anling Mountains have experienced six major warm periods, five major cold periods, and several cold years that coincided with a sequence of major tropical volcanic eruptions. Temperature reconstructions have successfully captured the most recent climatic warming events and are consistent with other reconstructions from nearby regions on decadal timescales. Spatial climate correlation analyses with a gridded temperature dataset revealed that our temperature reconstructions contain strong regional temperature signals for the eastern Eurasian continent. Power spectrum revealed the existence of significant frequency cycles of variability at 2.0–2.3, 2.5–2.7, 2.9, 3.0, 3.4–4.5, 5.6, 7.2, 7.5–8.0, 8.2, 8.9, 9.9, 10.5–11.5, and 70.5years, which may be linked to large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, solar activity, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This reconstruction improves our understanding of long-term temperature variation for the XiaoXing Anling Mountains of China, but it can also be used to predict tree growth dynamics within the study area.