Tropical North Pacific Research Articles

The regulation of oxygen to low concentrations in marine oxygen-minimum zones

The Bay of Bengal hosts persistent, measurable, but sub-micromolar, concentrations of oxygen in its oxygen-minimum zone (OMZ). Such low-oxygen conditions are not necessarily rare in the global ocean and seem also to characterize the OMZ of the Pescadero Basin in the Gulf of California, as well as the outer edges of otherwise anoxic OMZs, such as can be found, for example, in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific. We show here that biological controls on oxygen consumption are required to allow the semistable persistence of low-oxygen conditions in OMZ settings; otherwise, only small changes in physical mixing or rates of primary production would drive the OMZ between anoxic and oxic states with potentially large swings in oxygen concentration. We propose that two controls are active: an oxygen-dependent control on oxygen respiration and an oxygen inhibition of denitrification. These controls, working alone and together, can generate low-oxygen concentrations over a wide variability in ocean mixing parameters. More broadly, we discuss the oxygen regulation of organic matter cycling and N2 production in OMZ settings. Modern biogeochemical models of nitrogen and oxygen cycling in OMZ settings do contain some of the parameterizations that we explore here. However, these models have not been applied to understanding the persistence of low, but measurable, concentrations of oxygen in settings like the Bay of Bengal, nor have they been applied to understanding what biological/physical processes control the transition from a weakly oxygenated state to a “functionally” anoxic state with implications for nitrogen cycling. Therefore, we believe that the approach here illuminates the relationship between oxygen and the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nitrogen in settings like the Bay of Bengal. Furthermore, we believe that our results could further inform large-scale ocean models seeking to explore how global warming might influence the spread of low-oxygen waters, influencing the cycles of oxygen, carbon, and nitrogen in OMZ settings.

Species‐Dependent Chromium Isotope Fractionation Across the Eastern Tropical North Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone

AbstractThe stable chromium (Cr) isotope system is an emerging paleoredox proxy. Interpretation of sedimentary and seawater δ53Cr (53Cr/52Cr relative to SRM 979) hinges on our understanding of the isotopic fractionations during Cr sequestration from seawater to sediments. Seawater δ53Cr values reported thus far are for total dissolved Cr. This study reports the δ53Cr of both dissolved Cr (III) and dissolved Cr (VI) across the oxygen minimum zone in the eastern tropical North Pacific off Manzanillo, Mexico. Dissolved Cr (III) accounts for 48% to 54% total dissolved Cr in this region. There are no correlations between O2 and Cr concentrations, or O2 concentrations and δ53Cr throughout the water column. The δ53Cr of Cr (III) is lower than that of Cr (VI) by a relatively constant offset (0.42 ± 0.15‰, 1σ, n = 5) and is also uncorrelated with dissolved O2 concentration. These observations provide part of the foundation for using δ53Cr of the authigenic Cr in organic‐rich shales to reconstruct seawater δ53Cr. A survey of growing literature Cr concentration and δ53Cr data suggests that the Cr isotope fractionation factor in the global ocean is likely more complex than previously thought. More future species‐dependent Cr isotope studies could shed new light on the biogeochemical processes controlling the oceanic Cr isotope fractionation.

Complete arsenic-based respiratory cycle in the marine microbial communities of pelagic oxygen-deficient zones

Microbial capacity to metabolize arsenic is ancient, arising in response to its pervasive presence in the environment, which was largely in the form of As(III) in the early anoxic ocean. Many biological arsenic transformations are aimed at mitigating toxicity; however, some microorganisms can respire compounds of this redox-sensitive element to reap energetic gains. In several modern anoxic marine systems concentrations of As(V) are higher relative to As(III) than what would be expected from the thermodynamic equilibrium, but the mechanism for this discrepancy has remained unknown. Here we present evidence of a complete respiratory arsenic cycle, consisting of dissimilatory As(V) reduction and chemoautotrophic As(III) oxidation, in the pelagic ocean. We identified the presence of genes encoding both subunits of the respiratory arsenite oxidase AioA and the dissimilatory arsenate reductase ArrA in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP) oxygen-deficient zone (ODZ). The presence of the dissimilatory arsenate reductase gene arrA was enriched on large particles (>30 um), similar to the forward bacterial dsrA gene of sulfate-reducing bacteria, which is involved in the cryptic cycling of sulfur in ODZs. Arsenic respiratory genes were expressed in metatranscriptomic libraries from the ETNP and the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP) ODZ, indicating arsenotrophy is a metabolic pathway actively utilized in anoxic marine water columns. Together these results suggest arsenic-based metabolisms support organic matter production and impact nitrogen biogeochemical cycling in modern oceans. In early anoxic oceans, especially during periods of high marine arsenic concentrations, they may have played a much larger role.

Mechanism for asymmetric atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific to El Niño and La Niña

The cause of asymmetric atmospheric circulation responses over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) to El Nino and La Nina was investigated through observational analyses and idealized modeling experiments. Firstly, column integrated moisture and moist static energy budget analyses were carried out to reveal the cause of asymmetric precipitation anomalies over the WNP. The result indicates that negative nonlinear moist enthalpy advection anomalies occur in both El Nino and La Nina, and they tend to induce a negative precipitation anomaly in the key WNP region and thus an anomalous anticyclone during both El Nino and La Nina winters. This, together with linear moist enthalpy advection, results in an asymmetric atmospheric circulation response. Secondly, the relative roles of the nonlinear moist enthalpy advection and the zonal shift of longitudinal location of anomalous heating over the central-eastern Pacific between El Nino and La Nina were investigated through an anomaly general circulation model. It is found that both the nonlinear advection and the zonally asymmetric heating contribute equally to the observed zonal shift of the anomalous WNP anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation centers between El Nino and La Nina.

Interannual variations of the rainy season withdrawal of the monsoon transitional zone in China

The monsoon transitional zone (MTZ) is the interactional belt between humid and arid regions. This study examines the interannual variation of the MTZ rainy season withdrawal over China. A withdrawal index is firstly defined according to pentad mean precipitation data. The index shows pronounced interannual variations, with a significant dominant period around 2–4 years. When the withdrawal of the MTZ rainy season is later than normal, pronounced precipitation increase appears over the MTZ in August. Meanwhile, a significant anticyclonic anomaly appears over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and a marked atmospheric wave train is seen originating from the North Atlantic and flowing across Eurasia to East Asia. Both the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP and the negative geopotential height anomalies related to the Eurasian wave train around the MTZ contribute to the precipitation increase over the MTZ in August, and lead to the late withdrawal of the MTZ rainy season in China. It is showed that preceding winter El Nino-like events have a contribution to the generation of anticyclonic anomalies over the WNP. In addition, the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) warming, which is independent of the preceding winter El Nino, is found to play a crucial role in the formation of the WNP anticyclone and the Eurasian atmospheric wave train. The importance of the NTA SST anomalies on the MTZ rainy season withdrawal is also confirmed by a set of atmospheric general circulation model experiments.

Decadal Variations of the Mindanao Current During 1960–2010

AbstractResults from an eddy‐resolving ocean model simulation, an ocean reanalysis data, and reduced‐gravity ocean (RGO) model simulations reach consensus in suggesting prominent decadal fluctuations of the Mindanao Current (MC) during 1960–2010. The MC was evidently enhanced during 1974–1982 and 2002–2008 and weakened during 1983–1990 and 1994–2001, with typical amplitude of ~2.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3/s) for decadal volume transport anomaly. These variations are closely associated with the strength of the westward flowing North Equatorial Current at 130°E and not evidently related with its bifurcation latitude. Experiments using a 1.5‐layer RGO model are performed to understand the mechanisms. Decadal variations of the MC are primarily caused by off‐equatorial wind changes in the tropical North Pacific, and winds in the latitude range of the MC (3–13°N) play the dominant role. Equatorial winds between 3°S and 3°N generally act to attenuate the MC variability, and subtropical winds have little contribution. For zonal distribution, local wind forcing between 120 and 160°E explains 67.8% of the MC decadal variability, while those in the central and eastern Pacific have weaker effects (25.0% and 7.2%, respectively). RGO model runs forced by nine wind data sets confirm the tight relationship between the MC and the western Pacific winds since the 1980s. The anomalous westerly winds under El Niño‐like condition drive upwelling in the Philippine Sea through off‐equatorial Ekman pumping that strengthens the MC. The relationship prior to 1980 is sensitive to the choice of wind data set, with four data sets yielding low or negative correlations.

Sensitivity of Sverdrup transport to surface wind products over the tropical North Pacific Ocean

This study investigates the sensitivity of the Sverdrup transport to the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-Interim, CCMP, and QSCAT wind products over the tropical North Pacific Ocean during the period of 2000–2008. Our analyses show that all of the S-E transports in the reanalysis/analysis winds are northward in the band of 7–9° N except the QSCAT wind, which produces more realistic southward transport as shown in the meridional geostrophic transports (MGTs) calculated from WOA13 and Argo data. At 24° N, high-resolution wind products can better estimate the meridional transport in this region. At 8° N, although the CCMP has the same high resolution as the QSCAT, it fails to produce more realistic ocean circulation just as the coarse resolution wind products do there. The unrealistically large wind stress curl and small zonal wind stress in winter in reanalysis/analysis wind products account for this discrepancy with the QSCAT. This discrepancy also suggests that the model physics used in these reanalysis wind products is deficient in depicting the ocean circulation in this region, where the ocean fronts and eddy activity are both active.

Impacts of recent decadal changes in Asian aerosols on the East Asian summer monsoon: roles of aerosol\u2013radiation and aerosol\u2013cloud interactions

Anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can affect cloud and precipitation through aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) and aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI). Over the past few decades, anthropogenic aerosol emissions have exhibited remarkable changes in the magnitude and in spatial pattern. The most significant changes are the increased emissions over both South Asia and East Asia. In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model that includes eight species of tropospheric aerosols, coupled to a multi-level mixed-layer ocean model, has been used to investigate the impacts of Asian anthropogenic aerosol precursor emission changes from 1970s to 2000s on large scale circulation and precipitation in boreal summer over East Asia. Results reveal significant changes in circulation and clouds over East Asia and over the tropical and western North Pacific (WNP). Increased Asian AA emissions lead to anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Maritime continent (MC) and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the WNP, resulting in anomalous moisture transport convergence over the MC and therefore increased precipitation. They also lead to anomalous moisture flux divergence over both the WNP and large land areas of East Asia, especially over northern China, and therefore decreased precipitation there. These large scale circulation anomalies over the adjacent oceans are related to aerosol change induced ocean feedbacks, predominantly through ACI. It is the slow responses over the adjacent oceans (e.g., SST changes) through coupled atmosphere–ocean interaction in pre-monsoon seasons and summer that shape the changes of the East Asian summer monsoon and local precipitation. The results in this study suggest that increased Asian AA emissions from 1970s to 2000s may have played an important role for the observed southward shift of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone and precipitation belt, weakening of East Asian summer monsoon and reduced precipitation over northern China in East Asia during the latter half of the twentieth century.

On Relationships between Nonrecurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and the East Asian Subtropical Jet

Abstract A 200-hPa zonal momentum budget is performed to examine the role that western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) play in helping to organize intraseasonal extratropical circulation anomalies that occur with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Zonal wind is linearly decomposed into components that occur on MJO time scales (i.e., 20–100-day periods), as well as those that occur with lower and higher frequency. Dates during Northern Hemisphere fall that feature nonrecurving TCs within a search radius centered on a South China Sea grid point when the MJO is convectively active over the Maritime Continent and west Pacific warm pool are used to generate composites of relevant budget terms. These composites are then compared to others that are based on the full list of dates that feature a convectively active MJO in the same location during NH fall without regard for TC presence. Composite results highlight the primary momentum sources that guide the evolution of the NH extratropical zonal wind and associated mass field in each event set. TCs help to accelerate the East Asian subtropical jet that evolves with the MJO by modulating the high-frequency subtropical circulation over Southeast Asia. The phasing of this circulation with its underlying MJO time-scale component enables it to transfer momentum to the emerging subtropical jet. This momentum is integrated into the more slowly evolving flow and carried forward by other processes, which leads to the development of a westerly momentum surge along the subtropical jet that spans the length of the North Pacific Ocean.

Centennial OMZ changes in the NW Mexican Margin from geochemical and foraminiferal sedimentary records

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are predicted to expand in the near future due to continued global warming, with largest declines in oxygen occurring within the strong tropical OMZs. In this study, shifts in the position and intensity of the OMZ in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP) were examined using three 210Pb-dated sediment cores collected along the continental shelf and slope of the NW Mexican Margin (southwest of Mazatlán). Using a suite of redox sensitive elements, bulk element and physical analyses, three main factors were identified as driving the geochemical signatures of trace elements across the NW Mexican Margin: 1) terrigenous input, 2) organic matter scavenging and 3) bottom water oxygen content. Downcore trends in benthic foraminiferal assemblages and authigenic concentrations of Mo and U suggest that dysoxic conditions were more intense and covered a larger depth range prior to the 20th century followed by a reduction in both size and strength of the OMZ over the last century.

A Statistical Analysis of Relationships between Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Extratropical Circulation Patterns Accompanying the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract Relationships between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the extratropical circulation have been studied extensively and applied in operational settings to improve subseasonal prediction. However, in certain situations, tropical cyclones (TCs), which often coincide with enhanced MJO activity, can interfere with MJO organization and common pathways through which the extratropics respond to the MJO, yielding unexpected extratropical circulation outcomes. A statistical experiment is developed to assess the extent to which the presence of west Pacific TCs in different parts of the basin during a given MJO phase are related to subsequent remote extratropical circulation outcomes and whether these outcomes can be explained by random chance. Results demonstrate that significant, high-amplitude remote circulation anomalies that align with or differ from those expected to lag a given MJO phase tend to develop in association with TCs that cluster in specific parts of the basin and at specific leads—in some cases, more than 2 weeks before a pattern emerges. These spatial and temporal clusters vary between MJO phases. Next, composite patterns of anomalous 200-hPa geopotential height associated with a set of nonrecurving TCs transiting the South China Sea during real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase 5 are examined relative to their full RMM phase-5 reference patterns. While both sets of patterns exhibit high correlation at early time lags, they quickly evolve out of phase with one another. It is suggested that the TCs featured in the TC-based composite contribute to this observed phase shift by modulating the RMM phase-5 extratropical response pathway.

New real-time indices for the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), with a periodicity of 10–30 days, is one of the most important modes of intraseasonal variability over the Asian summer monsoon region. Unlike the lower frequency (30–60 days) Madden–Julian Oscillation, which has had several real-time indices proposed for monitoring and predicting its state, there are very few equivalents for the QBWO. Given that extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis is arguably more suitable than empirical orthogonal function analysis for capturing the canonical spatial and temporal structure of a propagating wave system, we introduce two new indices for real-time monitoring of the QBWO over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and Indian Ocean (IO), separately, by projecting outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies onto the two leading modes of EEOF analysis for the 10–30-day-filtered OLR anomalies over the two basins during 1980–2012. The newly proposed QBWO indices faithfully represent the vigorous QBWO activities over the WNP and IO, which are underestimated and/or not necessarily well represented by existing indices. It is also shown that the indices are able to reveal the connections between the QBWO and other pronounced phenomena, such as the onset of the South China Sea and Indian monsoons, the occurrence of extreme rainfall events, and tropical cyclone genesis. Thus, monitoring and predicting the evolution of the QBWO in these two basins based on the new QBWO indices should help in the quest to mitigate future damage caused by weather-related disasters at an extended lead time.

Perfluorinated Alkyl Acids in Hawaiian Cetaceans and Potential Biomarkers of Effect: Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor Alpha and Cytochrome P450 4A.

Perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) are persistent in marine biota and are toxic to many species, including marine mammals. We measured the concentrations of 15 PFAAs in liver and kidney samples of 16 species of stranded cetaceans from Hawai'i and other tropical North Pacific regions utilizing high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Eleven PFAAs in liver and nine PFAAs in kidney were detected, including substantial perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA). Regression models indicated that phylogenetic family and age class significantly influenced concentrations of certain PFAAs. PFAAs can activate transcription factor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARα), which induces transcription of cytochrome P450 4A (CYP4A). Relative expression of PPARα and CYP4A mRNA was quantified using real-time PCR (qPCR) and CYP4A protein expression, using Western blot and then compared to PFAA concentrations in liver and kidney. Concentrations of four PFAA congeners, summation of perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (ΣPFCAs), and ΣPFAAs correlated significantly with PPARα mRNA expression and CYP4A protein expression in kidney, suggesting either may be biomarkers of PFAA exposure in cetaceans. This is the first study to quantify PFAAs in marine mammals from this region and the first observation of a direct relationship between PFAA exposure and PPARα and CYP4A expression in cetaceans.

A Phase Locking Perspective on Rossby Wave Amplification and Atmospheric Blocking Downstream of Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

AbstractThe extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) can significantly influence the evolution of the midlatitude flow. However, the interaction between recurving TCs and upstream upper-level troughs features a large and partly unexplained case-to-case variability. In this study, a synoptic, feature-based climatology of TC–trough interactions is constructed to discriminate recurving TCs that interact with decelerating and accelerating troughs. Upper-level troughs reducing their eastward propagation speed during the interaction with recurving TCs exhibit phase locking with lower-level temperature anomalies and are linked to pronounced downstream Rossby wave amplification. Conversely, accelerating troughs do not exhibit phase locking and are associated with a nonsignificant downstream impact. Irrotational outflow near the tropopause associated with latent heat release in regions of heavy precipitation near the transitioning storm can promote phase locking (via enhancement of trough deceleration) and further enhance the downstream impact (via advection of air with low potential vorticity in the direction of the waveguide). These different impacts affect the probability of atmospheric blocking at the end of the Pacific storm track, which is generally higher if a TC–trough interaction occurs in the western North Pacific. Blocking in the eastern North Pacific is up to 3 times more likely than climatology if an interaction between a TC and a decelerating trough occurs upstream, whereas no statistical deviation with respect to climatology is observed for accelerating troughs. The outlined results support the hypothesis that differences in phase locking can explain the observed variability in the downstream impact of ET.

The Carbon:234Thorium ratios of sinking particles in the California current ecosystem 1: relationships with plankton ecosystem dynamics

We investigated variability in the C:234Th ratio of sinking particles and its relationship to changing water column characteristics and plankton ecological dynamics during 29 Lagrangian experiments conducted on six cruises of the California Current Ecosystem Long-Term Ecological Research (CCE-LTER) Program. C:234Th ratios of sinking particles collected by a surface-tethered sediment trap (C:234ThST) varied from 2.3 to 20.5 μmol C dpm−1 over a depth range of 47–150 m. C:234ThST was significantly greater (by a factor of 1.8) than C:234Th ratios of suspended >51-μm particles collected in the same water parcels with in situ pumps. C:234Th ratios of large (>200-μm) sinking particles also exceeded those of smaller sinking particles. C:234ThST decreased with depth from the base of the euphotic zone through the upper twilight zone. C:234ThST was positively correlated with several indices of ecosystem productivity including particulate organic carbon (POC) and chlorophyll (Chl) concentrations, mesozooplankton biomass, and the fraction of Chl >20-μm. Principal component analysis and multiple linear regression suggested that decaying phytoplankton blooms exhibited higher C:234ThST than actively growing blooms at similar biomass levels. C:234ThST was positively correlated with indices of the fractional contribution of fecal pellets in sediment traps when the proportion of fecal pellets was low in the traps, likely because of a correlation between mesozooplankton biomass and other indices of ecosystem productivity. However, when fecal pellets were a more important component of sinking material, C:234ThST decreased with increasing fecal pellet content. C:234ThST was also positively correlated with the Si:C ratio of sinking particles. Across the dataset (and across depths) a strong correlation was found between C:234ThST and the ratio of vertically-integrated POC to vertically-integrated total water column 234Th (vC:234Thtot). A mechanistic one-layer, two-box model of thorium sorption and desorption was invoked to explain this correlation. Two empirical models (one using vC:234Thtot; one using depth and vertically-integrated Chl) were developed to predict C:234Th ratios in this coastal upwelling biome. The former regression (log10(C:234ThST) = 0.43 × log10(vC:234Thtot) + 0.53) was found to also be a reasonable predictor for C:234ThST from diverse regions including the Southern Ocean, Sargasso Sea, Subarctic North Pacific, and Eastern Tropical North Pacific.

Seesaw Pattern of Rainfall Anomalies between the Tropical Western North Pacific and Central Southern China during Late Summer

It is well known that suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) induces an anticyclonic anomaly, and this anticyclonic anomaly results in more rainfall along the East Asian rain band through more water vapor transport during summer, as well as early and middle summer. However, the present results indicate that during late summer (from mid-August to the beginning of September), the anomalous anticyclone leads to more rainfall over central southern China (CSC), a region quite different from preceding periods. The uniqueness of late summer is found to be related to the dramatic change in climatological monsoon flows: southerlies over southern China during early and middle summer but easterlies during late summer. Therefore, the anomalous anticyclone, which shows a southerly anomaly over southern China, enhances monsoonal southerlies and induces more rainfall along the rain band during early and middle summer. During late summer, however, the anomalous anticyclone reflects a complicated change in monsoon flows: it changes the path, rather than the intensity, of monsoon flows. Specifically, during late summers of suppressed convection in the tropical WNP, southerlies dominate from the South China Sea to southern China, and during late summers of enhanced convection, northeasterlies dominate from the East China Sea to southern China, causing more and less rainfall in CSC, respectively.

Age estimation of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) in the eastern North Pacific using otolith microincrements and fin spine sections

The age of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) in days and years (daily and yearly ages) were estimated by counts of otolith microincrements (n=25) and dorsal fin spine annuli (n=175) using specimens caught in the tropical eastern North Pacific between September and November 2004. Daily ages of small striped marlin (87.0–145.5cm lower jaw–fork length) were estimated to range from 81 to 239 days, which indicates that the species in the area grow, on average, to over 100cm within 4 months. Back-calculated hatch dates were estimated to be from March to July; this period is earlier than the known spawning season in a slightly more northern area. Approximately 20% of these year-0 striped marlin had one or more growth bands in the sectioned spine. They were thought to be false annual growth bands and excluded from yearly age estimation. The estimated yearly age of 175 individuals (87.0–228.4cm) ranged from 0 to 5 and was dominated by ages-0 to 3 (>90%). Age composition was different among three subregions in the eastern North Pacific.

Eddy‐Induced Salinity Changes in the Tropical Pacific

AbstractThe signature of westward propagating mesoscale eddies in sea surface salinity (SSS) is analyzed for the tropical Pacific by collocating 7 years (2010–2016) of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity SSS satellite data with coherent mesoscale eddies automatically identified and tracked from altimetry‐derived sea level anomalies. First, the main characteristics of the long‐lived coherent eddies are inferred from sea level anomalies maps. Then, the mean signature of the mesoscale eddies on SSS is depicted for the whole tropical Pacific before focusing in regions centered around the central and eastern parts of the tropical North Pacific. In these areas, composite analyses based on thousands of eddies reveal regionally dependent eddy impacts with opposite SSS anomalies for cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. In the central region, where the largest meridional SSS large‐scale gradients and smallest eddy amplitudes are observed, results show dipole‐like SSS changes with maximum anomalies on the leading edge of the composite eddy. In contrast, in the eastern region, where the largest near‐surface vertical salinity gradients and largest eddy amplitudes are observed, the composite eddy shows monopole‐like SSS changes with maximum anomalies near the composite eddy center. These distinct dipole/monopole SSS patterns suggest the dominant role of horizontal advection and vertical processes in the central and eastern regions, respectively. Other possible explanations, notably one involving the contrasted eddy amplitudes of the two regions, are discussed.

Consistent Late Onset of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Following major El Niño Events

Consistent Late Onset of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Following major El Niño Events

Evaluating the Performance of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance. Part II: Intensity Forecast Accuracy in Different Life Stages

ABSTRACT The accuracy of eight tropical cyclone (TC) intensity guidance techniques currently used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pacific seasons has been evaluated within two intensity phases: intensification and decay. In the intensification stage, the majority of the techniques indicated > 60% probabilities of the errors of forecast 12-h intensity change within ± 5 m s-1 from the 12- to 60-h forecast intervals, while none had capability to predict the rapid intensification and most of them had a bias toward smaller 48-h intensity changes at the beginning of the stage. The majority of the guidance techniques showed > 70% probabilities of the errors of forecast 12-h intensity change within ± 5 m s-1 through 60 h during the decay phase, and the techniques had little capability of predicting rapid decay events. It is found that the evaluated statistical models had difficulty in predicting the strongest cases of decay 36 h after peak intensity, whereas the dynamical and official forecasts were seemingly able to produce some large decay rates.