Tropical Nights Research Articles

Daily Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation Over Quetta Valley, Pakistan During 1961-2019

Climate extremes are imperative to study the impacts of climate change that is significantly observed for the management of scarce water resources of the Quetta Valley. The daily data of temperature and precipitation are used to model the climate extreme indices for Quetta Meteorological Station from1961 to 2019. The statistical tests were performed by using Mann Kendal and Sen’s Slope method at the 95% confidence level. The overall change in minimum to maximum temperatures and precipitation-based climate extreme indices specify the frequencies of extreme events are increasing. That would cause heatwaves, gradual warming, steady dryness, and extreme precipitation events in the long term over the Quetta Valley. The minimum and maximum temperature-based indices inclusively indicate positive trends. That ultimately leads to a warming climate with a significant increase in summer as 5 days/decade, tropical nights as 5.3 days/decade, daily maximum as 0.28°C/decade, warm nights as 1.7 days/decade and warm days as 1.9 days/decade. For precipitation, all the indices show positive trends with a significant increase in consecutive wet days for 0.1 days/decade and an annual contribution of very wet days 0.8% per decade. The monthly increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation would increase the evaporative demands which may arise the water stress conditions over the valley and may put pressure over groundwater reservoirs.

Observed Daily Temperature Variability and Extremes over Southeastern USA (1978–2017)

This study presents an analysis of extreme temperature events over southeastern USA from 1978 to 2017. This region is part of the so-called ‘warming hole’ where long-term surface temperature trends are negative or non-significant, in contrast with the remainder of the country. This study examines whether this distinctive characteristic reflects on the region’s trends in temperature extremes. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the US Historical Climatology Network were used to compute extreme indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Temperature extreme indices computed for all stations using the RClimDex package were gridded onto a regular latitude–longitude grid, and a spatiotemporal analysis of associated trends was performed. The results point to a tendency toward warming due to increasing trends in the annual occurrence of the hottest day, the warmest night, warm days, warm nights, summer days, tropical nights, and warm spells, as well as decreases in cool nights, cool days, and frost days. Statistically significant trend changes over large portions of the Southeast were dominated by increases in the frequency of the coldest night, summer days, and warm nights, and decreases in cool nights and frost days. Comparison of our results with other global and regional studies indicate that most of the extreme temperature changes over the Southeast are consistent with findings from other parts of the United States (US) and the world. Overall, this study shows that being part of the ‘warming hole’ does not preclude southeastern US from an intensification of temperature extremes, whether it is an increase in warm extremes or a decrease in cold ones. Further, the results suggest that, should the current trends continue in the long term, the Southeast will not be considered as being part of a warming hole anymore.

How window ventilation behaviour affects the heat resilience in multi-residential buildings

To what extent is the overheating risk in dwellings affected by the individual window ventilation behaviour of residents? To answer this question six window ventilation profiles, obtained from surveys, are implemented in building performance simulation models of a large panel construction and a “Gründerzeit” multi-residential building located in Germany. The impacts of these different ventilation types are analysed for the top floor dwellings, including wind and temperature gradient-driven infiltration in the simulation. The results demonstrate the tremendous impact of the chosen window ventilation profile on overheating intensity. Low overheating is obtained if windows and room doors are fully opened, even if this is only done in the early morning and evening hours. Tilted windows are not adequate to ensure sufficient air exchange and lead to high overheating and critical room temperatures up to 35 °C. Regarding the building type, the above described effects are more pronounced in the “Gründerzeit” building whereas the large panel construction building exhibits a much higher heat resilience. However, overheated neighbouring dwellings shows a pronounced influence on overheating for the large panel construction building. Both findings can be attributed to building physics. In addition, the impact of meteorological conditions like tropical nights are found to significantly reduce the efficacy of passive cooling by nocturnal window ventilation. The overall findings clearly that a more accurate representation of natural ventilation is essential to draw correct conclusions from overheating assessments when using building performance simulation. In contrast, applying simplified natural ventilation boundary conditions in current overheating standards entails the risk of misinterpretations.

Downscaling model in agriculture in Western Uzbekistan climatic trends and growth potential along field crops physiological tolerance to low and high temperatures

The Global climate change is becoming an increasing challenge for agriculture. Beyond the increased local occurrence of extreme events high temperatures are becoming an increasingly present limiting factor in crop production. The agriculture in the West of Uzbekistan with very limited rainfalls is highly dependent on irrigation schemes using the Amu Darya water flow. With low Winter (freezing nights with minimum air temperatures of less than 0 °C) and high Summer temperatures (hot days and nights with temperatures above 35 °C during daylight, and minimum air temperatures of more than 20 °C during night time – tropical nights) the local continental arid climate temperatures are a main limiting factor faced by the local agriculture. The arid climate, with a crop production dependant on irrigation, allows putting the focus on temperatures influence on field crops, while rainfalls have barely any influence.In temperate countries the focus has mainly been on low temperatures as a main limiting factor. Freeze is indeed influencing the sowing period and putting crops at early development stages at risk.Even though, the West of Uzbekistan is facing low temperatures over the Winter period which is also challenging the local agriculture, high temperatures are becoming an increasing threat over the Summer period.The present study is analysing day and night temperature trends over the period 1987–1990 and 2013–2017. The observed trends are further compared with data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model available on the World Bank open portal. Regression lines have been calculated illustrating the trends over the period. The inter-annual temperature variations are important with a relative standard deviation which ranges between 16 and 50%. The trend is considered as not significant when the relative standard deviation exceeds the variation over the overall time-period.The Day degrees are used to provide an insight into the climatic impact on crop growth along plants physiological tolerance. The day degree methodology has been especially adjusted in the present publication in order to take into account the tolerance of the studied crops to high temperatures.While the hot period is progressively expending into the Spring period, Winters are not becoming much milder limiting the benefit for Winter crops. While the hot days and tropical night event will become predominant over the Summer period the yields in cotton and rice are expected to drop drastically over the second half of the XXIst century. The expected reduction of water inflow of the Amu Darya over the century will further strongly put into question the crop production model in the West of Uzbekistan.The present publication aims at describing the ongoing trends, expectable changes in agricultural production and timelines. It is also illustrating how hot temperatures analysis could be integrated in downscaling models in agriculture in other regions of Uzbekistan and of the world.

Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations

Based on bias-corrected future projections from the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model under both RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios over China, extreme climatic events at the middle and end of the twenty-first century are investigated in this paper. The model performance of PRECIS is validated using comparisons with observations and HadGEM2-ES projections, and the bias correction adds fidelity to the projections of basic climate variables and extreme climate events. In the future, our single-realisation estimates show that the number of frost days is projected to decrease and days with tropical nights are projected to increase. Including northeast China, Sichuan Basin, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and south China, the number of consecutive dry days will increase from our single-realisation estimates, which will exhibit a spatial distribution almost similar to that of consecutive wet days in the coming decades. Although precipitation indices associated with duration will increase, a simple precipitation index depicting the intensity of extreme events will decrease over east and south China in the future from our single-realisation projections. Daily rainfall above 50 mm, which is usually regarded as a rainstorm event, is predicted to increase under the RCP4.5 scenario over most of China from our single-realisation estimates; while the same change pattern will occur in southernmost China, similarly spatially distributed for the RCP8.5 scenario, the number of rainstorm will first increase in the middle of the twenty-first century and then slow at the end of the twenty-first century in the Yangtze River region. In conclusion, our single-realisation estimates indicate that the persistence of extreme precipitation will increase with time, but the change of extreme precipitation intensity is not significant in the future. The comparison of climatic extreme events under the RCP4.5 scenario with those under the RCP8.5 scenario shows that extreme climate events will be enhanced under the higher emissions scenario; hence, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will help alleviate climate change effects in the future.

Extreme temperature indices in Eurasia in a CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble: Evaluation and projection

AbstractIt is important to project the changes in extreme temperature in Eurasia, where more than two‐thirds of the world's population reside. Employing Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations and extreme temperature indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and Indices, we firstly evaluate the performance of the CMIP6 models, and then project the spatial patterns of changes in extreme temperature in different periods under shared social‐economic Pathway scenarios and at different global warming levels. The results show that the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating the indices of the coldest day (TXn), the coldest night (TNn), summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR) and frost days (FD) are good. Therefore, these five indices were selected for projection. Overall, TXn, TNn, SU and TR show an increasing trend and FD a decreasing trend, consistent with global warming in the future. The responses to global warming tend to be strongest in high latitudes for TXn and TNn, in high latitudes and high‐altitude areas for FD, and in some low‐latitude areas for SU and TR. At the local scale over Eurasia, where the change is larger than the regional median level, the changes in extreme temperature indices at 1.5°C of global warming above pre‐industrial levels are projected to be reduced by 30–55% and 55–85%, respectively, compared with the situation at 2.0°C and 3.0 warming. If global warming could be controlled to within 2.0°C, the changes in extreme temperature indices over Eurasia would be reduced by up to 60% compared with the situation at 3.0°C warming. Therefore, if global warming can be controlled to within a low warming target, the risk of extreme temperature change will be greatly reduced in these regions.

Extreme climate changes over three major river basins in China as seen in CMIP5 and CMIP6

Climate extremes can severely impact socio-economic development. Climate trends of three temperature and three precipitation climate indices were evaluated in observational data, 23 models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5), and 20 models from CMIP6. The climate indices were calculated over the whole of China, and individually over the basins of its three major rivers. The indices are the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of annual mean temperature (Tas), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), number of tropical nights (TR), daily precipitation (Pre), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) and consecutive dry days (CDD). From 1961 to 2018, most of China has warmed; Tas, TNn, TXx and TR over China has increased by 1.7 °C, 2.8 °C, 1.1 °C and 9 days, respectively. Changes of Tas, TNn and TXx over the Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin and Pearl River Basin were generally similar in sign. The most significant increase of TR was seen over the Pearl River Basin. Historical Tas was well reproduced by both CMIP5 and CMIP6 over the study regions, but obvious uncertainties exist in the simulation of Pre. In general, CMIP6 models were improved from CMIP5 models. Climate projections were calculated for the 2021–2100 period. Future warming over China would be stronger with higher SSP scenarios; TNn over China would warm seven times more under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (5.6 °C) compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Future wetting over China would be stronger with higher the SSP scenarios; Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, Pre, R20mm, Rx5day would increase by 28%, 150%, and 38%, respectively. Projected changes of CDD different by region—decreasing over most of China and the Yellow River Basin, but increasing over the Yangtze and Pearl River Basins. The higher of the emission scenario, the less significant the reduction of CDD over the two basins. This suggests that the temporal distribution of precipitation over China will become more uneven in the future, especially under the higher SSP scenarios.

Changes in climatic patterns and tourism and their concomitant effect on drinking water transfers into the region of South Aegean, Greece.

Global warming is already having a negative impact on vital sectors on which human development depends, such as water resource availability. In this study, the changes and abrupt change timing of climatic extreme indices, aridity and drought over the Region of South Aegean are captured using the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests, while the latter variables are correlated with the water volume transported by ships to the region as well as the relevant costs. The region's climate is shifting to warmer conditions with less precipitation, since significantly positive trends were noted with regard to the number of tropical nights, warm nights, warm days, the warm spell duration index and the diurnal temperature range; significant negative trends were observed in relation to the number of cool nights, cool days and the cold spell duration index, with the change-point year for the latter variables being 2006. Inaddition, 7/11 precipitation related indices exhibited a downward trend, while significantly negative trends were observed with regard to the number of consecutive dry days, with the timing of the abrupt change being 2001. The Aridity Index (AI) reveals that the region’s climate characterization is changing from dry and sub-humid to semi-arid conditions, whilst the Reconnaissance Drought Index standardized (RDIst) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indices suggests an amplification of drought phenomena over the Region. The tourism variables illustrated a significant positive trend, with the timing of the abrupt change being registered during 2006–2009, whilst the correlation analysis between tourism variables and water transfers implies that the surge on water transfer by ships to the Region occurred between 1998 and 2008. This can be mainly attributed to the changes in climate patterns. The correlation analysis documents a strong positive correlation between the water transfer dataset and the diurnal temperature range, and a moderately negative association with the precipitation related indices, annual precipitation, drought phenomena and aridity with 7/11.

Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin

This study evaluates the pattern of a nighttime climate index namely the tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20ºC) during the 21st century in several different sized cities in the Carpathian Basin. For the modelling, MUKLIMO_3 microclimatic model and the cuboid statistical method were applied. In order to ensure the proper representation of the thermal characteristics of an urban landscape, the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system was used as landuse information. For this work, LCZ maps were produced using WUDAPT methodology. The climatic input of the model was the Carpatclim dataset for the reference period (1981–2010) and EURO-CORDEX regional model outputs for the future time periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). As results show, there would be a remarkable increase in the number of tropical nights along the century, and there is a clearly recognizable increase owing to urban landform. In the near past, the number of the index was 6–10 nights higher in the city core than the rural area where the number of this index was negligible. In the near future this urban-rural trend is the same, however, there is a slight increase (2–5 nights) in the index in city cores. At the end of the century, the results of the two emission scenarios become distinct. In the case of RCP4.5 the urban values are about 15–25 nights, what is less stressful compared to the 30–50 nights according to RCP8.5. The results clearly highlight that the effect of urban climate and climate change would cause serious risk for urban dwellers, therefore it is crucial to perform climate mitigation and adaptation actions on both global and urban scales.

Urban multi-model climate projections of intense heat in Switzerland

This paper introduces a straightforward approach to generate multi-model climate projections of intense urban heat, based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations from EURO-CORDEX. The employed technique entails the empirical-statistical downscaling method quantile mapping (QM), which is applied in two different settings, first for bias correction and downscaling of raw climate model data to rural stations with long-term measurements and second for spatial transfer of bias-corrected and downscaled climate model data to the respective urban target site. The resulting products are daily minimum and maximum temperatures at five urban sites in Switzerland until the end of the 21st century under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). We test the second-step QM approach in an extensive evaluation framework, using long-term observational data of two exemplary weather stations in Zurich. Results indicate remarkably good skill of QM in present-day climate. Comparing the generated urban climate projections with existing climate scenarios of adjacent rural sites allows us to represent the urban heat island (UHI) effect in future temperature-based heat indices, namely tropical nights, summer days and hot days. Urban areas will be more strongly affected by rising temperatures than rural sites in terms of fixed threshold exceedances, especially during nighttime. Projections for the end of the century for Zurich, for instance, suggest more than double the number of tropical nights (Tmin above 20 °C) at the urban site (45 nights per year, multi-model median) compared to the rural counterpart (20 nights) under RCP8.5.

Quantitative evaluation of the mitigation effect of low-impact development pavement materials on urban heat island and tropical night phenomena.

Rapid urbanization has led to altered thermal circulations in major cities that are responsible for the increasing occurrence of urban heat islands (UHIs) and events such as tropical nights and heat waves. To effectively mitigate such events, low-impact development (LID) and green infrastructure strategies have been developed. In Korea, LID techniques focus mainly on road pavement materials; however, issues regarding the reliability of measurements due to differences in the measurement equipment and studied specimens persist. This study presents the design of a green infrastructure surface temperature measurement (GSTM) instrument and a reliable methodology developed to evaluate the performance of pavement materials under controlled climate conditions. The developed GSTM instrument and methodology were tested by monitoring the surface temperature of materials based on LID practices and dense-graded asphalt and evaluating their ability to mitigate UHI and tropical night phenomena. The experiments were conducted under controlled climate conditions, using summer climate conditions of Seoul's typical meteorological year data. The UHI and tropical night phenomena mitigation performance of the pavement materials was evaluated by analyzing the correlation between the pavement materials' albedo and surface temperature using porous block specimens of different colors and LID-based pavement materials. The greening block recorded the most significant reduction in surface temperature, showing a difference of 22.6 °C, 185 min to the dense-graded asphalt. The white and yellow porous blocks showed surface temperature differences of 10.2 °C and 8.2 °C respectively compared to the dense-graded asphalt. The results revealed that pavement materials with higher albedo, more evaporation, and lower heat capacity have superior performance in mitigating UHI and tropical night events.

Building a local climate reference dataset: Application to the Abruzzo region (Central Italy), 1930–2019

AbstractReliable secular time series of essential climatic variables are a fundamental element for the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaptation to climate change. Here, we implement a readily portable procedure for building an upgradable long‐term homogeneous climate dataset using monthly and daily observations of temperature and precipitation over a given area of interest, exemplified here with Abruzzo, a region in Central Italy characterized by complex orography. We process the dataset according to a preliminary ranking of stations based on data quantity and quality, and we exploit the Climatol algorithm for inhomogeneity correction. The corrected time series show trends in broad agreement with external databases (CRU, Berkeley Earth, E‐OBS), and highlight the importance of relying on a local network for a better representation of gradients and variability over the territory. We estimate that maximum (TX) and minimum temperature (TN) increased by ~1.6 and ~2.2°C/century, respectively, over the period 1930–2019, while in the recent decades 1980–2019 we found an accelerated trend of ~5.7 and ~3.9°C/century. Precipitation (RR) decreased by ~10%/century in 1930–2019, while it has been increasing at a rate of ~26%/century in 1980–2019. The Köppen–Geiger climate classification is sensitive to the increase of precipitation in the recent decades, which is attributable to decreased summer precipitation overcompensated by more rain in late spring and early autumn. The cold climate types are retreating upwards along the slopes of the mountain ranges. Over the period 1980–2019, extreme values are also displaying significant trends. Every 2 years, there is one less frost day (TN <0°C) and one more summer day (TX >25°C) in the Apennines area, while there is one more tropical night (TN >20°C) in the Adriatic coastal area. Precipitation extremes are increasing, especially along the coast, with rain accumulated in the rainiest days increasing at a rate of 1–2%/year.

Attribution and projections of temperature extreme trends in South America based on CMIP5 models.

Temperature extreme indices were analyzed for five continental regions of southern South America defined according to their climatic characteristics. Gridded observations, reanalysis, and global-coupled climate models from CMIP5 were used with the approach of temperature extreme trend attribution analysis on fixed-threshold and percentile-based temperature extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The largest positive trends are exhibited in the tropical nights index, and a clear anthropogenic signal is evident in the subtropical region. In the subtropical central Andes, there is a decrease in the frost days index and increases in the tropical nights and summer days indices, and an anthropogenic signal is evident. In the Patagonian region, all trends from the historical runs were significant, while the ones from the natural experiment were nonsignificant, showing the marked effect of anthropogenic forcing in this region in the extreme temperature events. Projected changes in extreme indices for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, and larger changes are expected in the warm nights index.

Potential Dust Induced Changes on the Seasonal Variability of Temperature Extremes Over the Sahel: A Regional Climate Modeling Study

The aim of this study is to simulate the impact of mineral dust emissions from the Sahel–Saharan zone on temperature extremes over the Sahel. To achieve this goal, we performed two numerical simulations: one with the standard version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (no dust run) and another one with the same version of this model incorporating a dust module (dust run). The difference between both versions of the model allowed to isolate the impacts of mineral dust emissions on temperature extremes. The results show that the accumulation of mineral dust into the atmosphere leads to a decrease of the frequency of warm days, very warm days, and warm nights over the Sahel. This decrease is higher during the MAM (March-April-May) and JJA (June-July-August) periods especially in the northern and western parts of the Sahel. The impact of the mineral dust emissions is also manifested by a decrease of the frequency of tropical nights especially during MAM in the northern Sahel. When considering the warm spells, mineral particles tend to weaken them especially in MAM and JJA in the northern Sahel. To estimate the potential impacts of the mineral dust accumulation on heat stress, the heat index and the humidex are used. The analysis of the heat index shows that the dust impact is to reduce the health risks particularly in the northern Sahel during the MAM period, in the western Sahel during JJA, and in the southern and the northeastern parts of the Sahel during the SON (September-October-November) period. As for the humidex, it is characterized by a decrease especially in the northern Sahel for all seasons. This reduction of the occurrence of thermal extremes may have a positive effect on the energy demand for cooling and on global health. However, the accumulation of dust particles in the atmosphere may also increase the meningitis incidence and prevalence.

Projected near-term changes in temperature extremes over China in the mid-twenty-first century and underlying physical processes

This study investigates the near-term future changes of temperature extremes in summer (June–August) and winter (December–February) seasons over mainland China in the mid-twenty-first century (FP; 2045–2055) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario relative to the present day (PD; 1994–2011) by using an atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer coupled model MetUM-GOML1. The projected changes in hot extremes exhibit a rise in hottest day temperature (TXx) and warmest night temperature (TNx) and an increase in frequencies of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). The projected changes in cold extremes show a rise in coldest day temperature (TXn) and coldest night temperature (TNn) and a decrease in frequencies of ice days (ID) and frost days (FD). The projected changes in temperature extremes in both seasons are primarily determined by changes in seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperature while changes in temperature variability from daily to sub-seasonal time scales play a minor role. The future changes in temperature extremes over China, being consistent with the rise in seasonal temperature, are partly due to the increase in surface downward clear sky longwave radiation through the increased greenhouse gas concentrations and enhanced water vapor in the atmosphere, and partly due to the increase in net surface shortwave radiation as a result of the decreased aerosol emissions over Asia via aerosol-radiation interactions. Moreover, the seasonal mean surface warming can further be amplified with positive feedbacks by reducing the cloud cover, leading to positive changes in shortwave radiative effect through aerosol-cloud interactions and surface-atmosphere feedbacks during summer, and by positive changes in surface clear sky shortwave radiation through snow-albedo feedbacks over northern China and southwestern China during winter.

Climate Extreme Indices Derived from Observed Daily Temperature Data Over Three Cities of Thrace Region, Turkey

Construction industry can be affected by climate change in particular temperature and temperature extremes not only for the design phase but also for production or end-use/operation phases. In this regard the major climatic factors that are dominant for the building lifecycle must be evaluated. This study determined the 13-sector specific ET-SCI temperature indices annually and investigated their trend characteristics at Edirne, Kırklareli and Tekirdağ of Thrace Region for the historical period. The results showed a dominant increasing temperature trend over the region. Edirne, Kırklareli, and Tekirdağ stations showed significantly increasing trends for the hottest night, average daily maximum, and average daily minimum temperature indices in this study. Furthermore, the hottest day index also showed an increasing trend for all the stations with a significant trend for Edirne and Tekirdağ. Moreover, significant decreasing trends were observed in the heating degree days and increasing significant trends were observed for the SU (summer days), CDDCOLD18 (cooling degree days) and TR (tropical nights) values at all the stations.

Projected changes in heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century

In this study the changes in the nighttime heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century were examined. To quantify the heat load, the tropical night climate index was used. The MUKLIMO_3 local scale climate model was used to describe the urban processes and the land use classes were defined by the local climate zones. The expected change was examined over three periods: the 1981–2010 was taken as reference period using the Carpatclim database and the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods using EURO-CORDEX regional model simulation data for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To combine the detailed spatial resolution and the long time series, a downscaling method was applied. Our results show that spectacular changes could be in the number of tropical nights during the 21st century and the increasing effect of the urban landform is obvious. In the near future, a slight increase can be expected in the number of tropical nights, which magnitude varies from city to city and there is no major difference between the scenarios. However, at the end of the century the results of the two scenarios differ: the values can be 15-25 nights in case of RCP4.5 and 30-50 nights in case of RCP8.5. The results show that dwellers could be exposed to high heat load in the future, as the combined effect of climate change and urban climate, thus developing various mitigation and adaptation strategies is crucial.

Data for the geoecology of solution karst dolines, with particular attention to climatic, soil and biogenic environment

In this study the changes in the nighttime heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century were examined. To quantify the heat load, the tropical night climate index was used. The MUKLIMO_3 local scale climate model was used to describe the urban processes and the land use classes were defined by the local climate zones. The expected change was examined over three periods: the 1981–2010 was taken as reference period using the Carpatclim database and the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods using EURO-CORDEX regional model simulation data for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To combine the detailed spatial resolution and the long time series, a downscaling method was applied. Our results show that spectacular changes could be in the number of tropical nights during the 21st century and the increasing effect of the urban landform is obvious. In the near future, a slight increase can be expected in the number of tropical nights, which magnitude varies from city to city and there is no major difference between the scenarios. However, at the end of the century the results of the two scenarios differ: the values can be 15-25 nights in case of RCP4.5 and 30-50 nights in case of RCP8.5. The results show that dwellers could be exposed to high heat load in the future, as the combined effect of climate change and urban climate, thus developing various mitigation and adaptation strategies is crucial.

Data for the geoecology of solution karst dolines, with particular attention to climatic, soil and biogenic environment

In this study the changes in the nighttime heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century were examined. To quantify the heat load, the tropical night climate index was used. The MUKLIMO_3 local scale climate model was used to describe the urban processes and the land use classes were defined by the local climate zones. The expected change was examined over three periods: the 1981–2010 was taken as reference period using the Carpatclim database and the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods using EURO-CORDEX regional model simulation data for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To combine the detailed spatial resolution and the long time series, a downscaling method was applied. Our results show that spectacular changes could be in the number of tropical nights during the 21st century and the increasing effect of the urban landform is obvious. In the near future, a slight increase can be expected in the number of tropical nights, which magnitude varies from city to city and there is no major difference between the scenarios. However, at the end of the century the results of the two scenarios differ: the values can be 15-25 nights in case of RCP4.5 and 30-50 nights in case of RCP8.5. The results show that dwellers could be exposed to high heat load in the future, as the combined effect of climate change and urban climate, thus developing various mitigation and adaptation strategies is crucial.

Projected changes in heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century

In this study the changes in the nighttime heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century were examined. To quantify the heat load, the tropical night climate index was used. The MUKLIMO_3 local scale climate model was used to describe the urban processes and the land use classes were defined by the local climate zones. The expected change was examined over three periods: the 1981–2010 was taken as reference period using the Carpatclim database and the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods using EURO-CORDEX regional model simulation data for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To combine the detailed spatial resolution and the long time series, a downscaling method was applied. Our results show that spectacular changes could be in the number of tropical nights during the 21st century and the increasing effect of the urban landform is obvious. In the near future, a slight increase can be expected in the number of tropical nights, which magnitude varies from city to city and there is no major difference between the scenarios. However, at the end of the century the results of the two scenarios differ: the values can be 15-25 nights in case of RCP4.5 and 30-50 nights in case of RCP8.5. The results show that dwellers could be exposed to high heat load in the future, as the combined effect of climate change and urban climate, thus developing various mitigation and adaptation strategies is crucial.