Tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation Research Articles

Role of Dry Dynamics in the Maritime Continent Barrier Effect in the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract Eastward-moving moist deep convection and atmospheric circulation signals associated with the tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) sometimes break down as they cross the Maritime Continent region, but other times, the signal propagates across the region maintaining amplitude or regaining it over the west Pacific basin. This paper assesses the hypothesis that upper-tropospheric zonal diffluence of the background wind over the Maritime Continent causes much of this Maritime Continent barrier effect and its variation over time, through two mechanisms: 1) by slowing down the MJO as stronger-than-average background upper-tropospheric zonal wind over the Indian Ocean advects the MJO circulation signal westward, slowing its eastward advance, and 2) through the zonal advection of the background wind by subseasonal zonal wind across a region of zonal diffluence of the background wind, which advects the background wind of the opposite sign to the MJO wind. Advection of the opposite-signed background wind counteracts the MJO wind and reduces its associated upper-tropospheric mass divergence, weakening the mechanisms of the upper-tropospheric Kelvin wave component of the MJO circulation. Composites of MJO-associated zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation signals diminish as they cross the Maritime Continent region when the region’s background zonal winds are diffluent, and composites of data reconstructing the relevant advection terms reveal the direct action of the advection mechanisms. Significance Statement The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the leading subseasonal variation of the tropical atmosphere. This project addresses how diffluence of the upper-tropospheric background zonal wind can break down MJO events through advection of and by the background wind.

Variability of volume transport in the Taiwan Strait and its response to tropical MJO convection: A numerical approach

Taiwan Strait (TWS) plays a crucial role in material exchange and nutrient budget between the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In this study, we investigate the variability of volume transport in the TWS and its response to tropical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection based on the simulated results from a three-dimensional operational numerical model. Validated by the observational data, the model generally reproduced the physical field well. The volume transport in the TWS has strong seasonal cycles as well as higher-frequency variations. Intra-seasonal fluctuations dominate the along-strait currents variability, while secondary and the last signal are seasonal one and inter-annual variability, respectively. Overall, the along-strait wind stress plays a more important role in controlling the variability of volume transport in the TWS than the pressure gradient induced by north-to-south sea level slope. At intra-seasonal time scales, the volume transport in the TWS varies with the movement of the tropical MJO convection from Indian Ocean eastward to the western Pacific Ocean. These oceanic anomalies are related to atmospheric anomalies, with a distinct physical linkage from the tropical atmosphere to the mid-latitude ocean. The tropical MJO deep convection can modify the upper tropospheric heights and generate a wave train pattern that propagates to mid-latitudes. In addition, these anomalous upper tropospheric heights modulate the surface pressure, resulting in a cyclonic anomaly. The upper tropospheric heights anomaly and its corresponding mean sea level pressure anomaly move eastward in the MJO cycle following the migrating MJO heat source in the tropics from phase 2 to 5. Consequently, surface winds change as the cyclonic anomaly moves from central China to the east of Japan, resulting in a northeast volume transport anomaly during MJO phase 2 and 3 and a southwest volume transport anomaly during MJO phase 4 and 5.

SABER Observations of Gravity Wave Responses to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation From the Stratosphere to the Lower Thermosphere in Tropics and Extratropics

AbstractThe 17‐year SABER‐observed gravity wave (GW) temperature variances reveal significant responses of GWs to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the middle atmosphere (30–100 km) in tropics and extratropics (45°S to 45°N) for boreal winter. The responses vary significantly with latitude but barely with altitude. From 20°S to 45°N, strong positive anomalies are found for MJO Phases 3–5, while negative anomalies for Phases 7–8. From 45–20°S, these patterns are reversed. The peak‐to‐peak differences (positive‐to‐negative anomalies) are ~6–16% relative to the seasonal mean. Comparison with MJO modulations on tropical convection and polar vortex suggests that GW responses in tropics may result from the modulation of GW source, while responses in northern extratropics may result from the modulation of polar vortex, which in turn modulates GW activities. These results highlight the importance of GWs to imprint the tropical MJO signals vertically to the middle atmosphere and horizontally to extratropical regions.

Sub-Seasonal Variability of Meridional Activity of Western Pacific Subtropical High in Boreal Late Summer

Sub-seasonal variability in meridional activity of Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) exerts important influences on anomalous weather and climate in East Asian monsoon region. By using a sub-seasonal meridional index of the WPSH, the characteristics and atmospheric evolutions in association with the sub-seasonal meridional activity of the WPSH during boreal late summer are further investigated. The meridional activity of the WPSH exhibits distinctive low frequency oscillation (LFO), with two dominant periods of 10-30 days and 40-50 days. The 10-30 day LFO is influenced by wave trains in mid-high latitudes and convection propagating from tropic. For the northward advance of the WPSH, in the high latitudes, teleconnection wave train originating from Atlantic Ocean propagates eastward, then the positive and negative potential vortex anomalies enhance the high-level divergence in Northeast Asia. In the mid-latitudes, the 10-30 day low frequency wave train from North America propagates westward and influences the pressure field along the East Asia coast, whose energy is gained from the westerly jet through barotropic process. In the tropic, on time scale of 10-30 days, anomalous convections over the equatorial western Pacific propagate northwestward and trigger cyclone-anticyclone circulation anomalies along the East Asia coast, which in turn affect the meridional position of the WPSH. The 40-50 day LFO of meridional activity of WPSH is closely related to the convection anomalies under the interaction between MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and MISO (monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation). The tropical MJO propagates eastward from the equatorial Indian Ocean to West Pacific and then propagates northward, in accompany with the northeastward propagation of anomalous convection teleconnection covering the tropical Indian Ocean-North Indian Peninsula-Northwest Pacific, resulting in the anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation over Northwest Pacific, which contributes to the northward advance of the WPSH. For the southward retreat of the WPSH, the contrary is the case in 10-30 day atmospheric LFO while relatively weaker 40-50 day atmospheric LFO does less contribution to the southward retreat of the WPSH.

Relationship Between Summer Precipitation in North China and Madden–Julian Oscillation During the Boreal Summer of 2018

Based on the data about summer precipitation in North China, tropical MJO (short for Madden-Julian Oscillation) index, and NCEP/NCAR (short for National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data, this paper analyzed the relationship between summer precipitation 2018 in North China and MJO by using multiple statistical methods. Findings indicate that, (1) Summer precipitation in North China is closely related to MJO. During the times when the MJO was in phases 5 and 6, North China had heavy precipitation. (2) The correlation mechanism is mainly: At 850 hPa, when MJO storm clouds move eastward, anticyclonic circulation is excited in the north side of the convection area, thus forming a pair of cyclones and anticyclones. Though MJO storm clouds cannot move northward to higher latitude to have direct impact on the summer precipitation in North China, the anticyclonic circulation on the north side of cyclones during the eastward movement of MJO to phases 5 and 6 can strengthen the water-vapor transfer of southerly wind (corresponding to RMM1) or that of southeast wind (corresponding to RMM2) in summer in North China, thus providing favorable water-vapor conditions for precipitation in North China. At 500 hPa, when MJO moves eastward into phases 5 and 6, the western Pacific subtropical high will move northward to the area near the Korean Peninsula and be strengthened, thus blocking weather systems that come from the west, and facilitating ascending motions in North China. At 200 hPa, MJO-associated convection will generate disturbances at upper troposphere and transmit the impacts of disturbances to downstream areas along the westerly jet waveguide, thus forming a disturbance wave train. When MJO moves eastward into phases 5 and 6, duing to the effect of wave train propagation, disturbances at the height of the 500 hPa pressure will have a positive anomaly near the Korean Peninsula, forming an obvious barotropic structure with 500 hPa subtropical high, which strengthens the blocking to weather systems that come from the west and is favorable to the precipitation in North China. (3) MJO can be used for extended-range forecast of summer precipitation over North China.

The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2)

AbstractThe second version of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPSv2) was implemented operationally at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in July 2019. Like its predecessors, CanSIPSv2 applies a multimodel ensemble approach with two coupled atmosphere–ocean models, CanCM4i and GEM-NEMO. While CanCM4i is a climate model, which is upgraded from CanCM4 of the previous CanSIPSv1 with improved sea ice initialization, GEM-NEMO is a newly developed numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based global atmosphere–ocean coupled model. In this paper, CanSIPSv2 is introduced, and its performance is assessed based on the reforecast of 30 years from 1981 to 2010, with 10 ensemble members of 12-month integrations for each model. Ensemble seasonal forecast skill of 2-m air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, precipitation rate, sea surface temperature, and sea ice concentration is assessed. Verification is also performed for the Niño-3.4, the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) indices. It is found that CanSIPSv2 outperforms the previous CanSIPSv1 system in many aspects. Atmospheric teleconnections associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reasonably well captured by the two CanSIPSv2 models, and a large part of the seasonal forecast skill in boreal winter can be attributed to the ENSO impact. The two models are also able to simulate the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection associated with the tropical MJO, which likely provides another source of skill on the subseasonal to seasonal time scale.

Stratospheric Influences on the MJO-Induced Rossby Wave Train: Effects on Intraseasonal Climate

AbstractThe tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites a northward propagating Rossby wave train that largely determines the extratropical surface weather consequences of the MJO. Previous work has demonstrated a significant influence of the tropospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the characteristics of this wave train. Here, composite analyses of ERA-Interim sea level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT) data during the extended northern winter season are performed to investigate the additional role of stratospheric forcings [the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-yr solar cycle] in modifying the wave train and its consequences. MJO phase composites of 20–100-day filtered data for the two QBO phases show that, similar to the cool phase of ENSO, the easterly phase of the QBO (QBOE) produces a stronger wave train and associated modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. In particular, during MJO phases 5–7, positive SLP and negative SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector are enhanced during QBOE relative to the westerly phase of the QBO (QBOW). The opposite occurs during the earliest MJO phases. SAT anomalies over eastern North America are also more strongly modulated during QBOE. Although less certain because of the short data record, there is some evidence that the minimum phase of the solar cycle (SMIN) produces a similar increased modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. The strongest modulations of SLP and SAT anomalies are produced when two or more of the forcings are superposed (e.g., QBOE/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, etc.).

Eastern Canada Flooding 2017 and its Subseasonal Predictions

ABSTRACTSevere damage was caused by a flooding event across eastern Canada during the first week of May 2017. Thousands of residences were affected, and many people were evacuated from their homes in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. This event was mainly caused by persistent heavy rainfall during that week. In this study, the ability to make a useful prediction of this flooding event about two weeks in advance is assessed for 11 subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models. It is found that the above-normal precipitation in eastern Canada during the week of 1–7 May was predicted by most of the models a few weeks in advance although the forecast anomaly was, in general, weaker than observed. These models also predicted a high probability of extreme precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the flooding event revealed a wave train of 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly along mid-latitudes from the North Pacific across North America to the North Atlantic, which sets up a favourable environment for strong water vapour transport from the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic to eastern Canada. Most models were able to predict this wave train. We found that this flooding event is likely connected to the tropical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) through atmospheric teleconnections. During the week of 24–30 April the MJO was observed to be in phase 7 with enhanced convection in the western-central Pacific. A numerical experiment was conducted using a linear model with specified tropical diabatic heating similar to MJO phase 7. The resulting 500 hPa geopotential height response has many similarities to the observed wave train that was responsible for the flooding event.

Combined Effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on Cold Temperature Over Asia

The combined effect of the Madden−Julian oscillation (MJO) and Arctic oscillation (AO) on the temperature variation over Asia is investigated using the thermodynamic budget equation. Because of the distinct geographical origin of the two atmospheric modes, the influence of AO is more dominant in the higher latitude, whereas the MJO impact is more predominant in the lower latitude. Hence, the physical process responsible for the surface cold anomaly is different for northern and southern Asia. Cold anomaly appears in most of Asia 20–25 days after the MJO phase 6 (corresponding to the phase 2–3). However, more strengthened cold anomaly occurs over northern Asia under the negative AO state and it is caused by advection of temperature anomaly by climatological northerly wind associated with the East Asia winter monsoon flow. On the other hand, much stronger cold anomaly is seen over southern Asia under the positive AO state for the same lag day of the initial MJO phase 6. Aside from the upward overturning circulation forced by the tropical MJO over the subtropics and lower midlatitudes, the weakening of the East Asia subtropical jet by the positive AO induces additional upward motion over southern Asia to adjust the thermal wind balance. The combined effect of the MJO and AO also influences on the occurrence of extreme cold event. Under the negative (positive) AO phase, the extreme cold event occurrence probability over northern (southern) Asia increases by 90% (60%) compared to that for all winter days. The relative increase rate for the MJO phases 2–3 is ~30% over southern Asia. The cold event occurrence probability for the combined modes is about the twice that for only MJO impact, suggesting that an incorporation of both modes enhance the predictability of extreme cold event.

MJO Affects the Monsoon Onset Timing Over the Indian Region

AbstractThis study examines the linkage between the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and the South Asian summer monsoon onset through spatiotemporal wave‐filtering and composite analyses of observational data sets during 1979–2016. We identify two major factors in determining the summer monsoon onset timing: the background conditions associated with seasonal transitions and the intraseasonal variations associated with an active MJO. The background conditions undergo sharp seasonal transition over the western Indian Ocean two to three pentads before the onset dates, while a typical monsoon onset is often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the Indian Ocean, likely due to the promotion by the MJO‐initiated eastward propagating westerly wind anomaly. Conversely, the atmospheric circulation associated with the leading dry phase of a strong MJO during the climatological mean onset dates may lead to a delayed monsoon onset.

Time-Lagged Response of the Antarctic and High-Latitude Atmosphere to Tropical MJO Convection

Intraseasonal tropical variability has important implications for the mid- and high-latitude atmosphere, and in recent studies has been shown to modulate a number of weather processes in the Northern Hemisphere, such as snow depth, sea ice concentration, precipitation, atmospheric rivers, and air temperature. In such studies, the extratropical atmosphere has tended to respond to the tropical convection of the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), with a time lag of approximately 7 days. However, the time lag between the MJO and the Antarctic atmosphere has been found to vary between less than 7 and greater than 20 days. This study builds on previous work by further examining the time-lagged response of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation to tropical MJO forcing, with specific focus on the latitude belt associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, during the months of June (austral winter) and December (austral summer) using NCEP–DOE Reanalysis 2 data for the years 1979–2016. Principal findings indicate that the time lag with the strongest height anomalies depends on both the location of the MJO convection (e.g., the MJO phase) and the season, and that the lagged height anomalies in the Antarctic atmosphere are fairly consistent across different vertical levels and latitudinal bands. In addition, certain MJO phases in December displayed lagged height anomalies indicative of blocking-type atmospheric patterns, with an approximate wavenumber of 4, whereas in June most phases were associated with more progressive height anomaly centers resembling a wavenumber-3-type pattern.

Dominant Modes of Subseasonal Variability of East Asian Summertime Surface Air Temperature and Their Predictions

Subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over East Asia is analyzed using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis of 34 Northern Hemisphere extended summers. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed with pentad SAT data to identify the leading modes of subseasonal SAT variability. The first (EOF1) and second (EOF2) modes, which together account for about 35% of the total variance, correspond to a monopole structure of SAT anomaly in the whole East Asian region and a dipole structure with opposite signs of variability over the north and south East Asian continent, respectively. Lead–lag regressions are calculated in order to analyze how the large-scale atmospheric circulation evolves in association with the development of the leading SAT modes. An eastward propagation of the Rossby wave from the midlatitude Atlantic Ocean is observed about three pentads before EOF1. EOF2 is influenced by both the tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and a midlatitude wave train. These results indicate that there is potential for prediction of the dominant SAT modes on the subseasonal time scale. The subseasonal prediction of the two dominant modes is further evaluated in the operational monthly forecasting system of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The model shows a better forecast skill than the persistence forecast. The strength of the subseasonal signal in initial conditions impacts the forecast skill. The forecasts starting with strong EOF in the initial condition are more skillful than those initialized with weak EOF. The findings in the study contribute to improving the understanding of the subseasonal variability and SAT subseasonal forecasting in East Asia.

Wind‐Driven Response of the Upper Ocean Along the U.S. West Coast to Tropical MJO Convection

AbstractIn this study, time‐lagged composites of OSCAR upper ocean currents from February to May of 1993–2016 were binned by active phase of the leading atmospheric mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). Seven days after the convectively active phase of the MJO is present in the tropical Indian Ocean, anomalously strong south‐southeastward upper ocean currents are seen along nearly the entire U.S. west coast. Seven days after the convectively active phase is present in the tropical western Pacific Ocean, upper ocean current anomalies reverse along the U.S. west coast, with weaker southward flow. A physical pathway to the ocean was found for both of these phases: (a) tropical MJO convection modulates upper tropospheric heights and circulation over the Pacific Ocean; (b) those anomalous atmospheric heights adjust the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and Hawaiian High; (c) surface winds change in response to the adjusted atmospheric pressure patterns; and (d) those surface winds project onto upper ocean currents.

Factors controlling the seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

By analyzing observational data, previous studies have indicated that the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is active during the boreal winter but relatively weak during the boreal summer. However, the factors that control seasonal MJO variation are not clear. To quantitatively understand the relative contributions of the occurrence frequency of enhanced MJO events and their averaged strength and lifespan to seasonal MJO amplitude, we defined the MJO events of 1979–2014 and analyzed their features in different seasons by using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the newly proposed RMM-r index. The results indicate that the MJO events show a higher frequency of occurrence, a stronger intensity and a longer duration during the boreal winter (Dec.–Feb.) and spring (Mar.–May). However, the frequency, strength and lifespan of MJO events are all reduced during the boreal summer (Jun.–Aug.) and autumn (Sep.–Nov.). The enhanced MJO events in winter–spring also show a large ratio of variance for eastward to westward components. To elucidate how large-scale background fields affect seasonal MJO variation, a series of sensitivity experiments was conducted by using a 2.5-layer model that can simulate MJO-like features. It is found that the variation in low-level moisture (vertical wind shear) is the key large-scale factor affecting the seasonal variation in MJO strength (in propagation). In comparison with the summer–autumn seasons when the MJO is relatively weakened, the relatively abundant low-level moisture near the equator during boreal winter–spring may strengthen the development of MJO convection and circulation, whereas the relatively weak easterly shear (or the westerly shear anomaly) is conducive to the enhancement of an eastward-propagating MJO component.

Convection Cycles, Atmosphere, and Ocean Work Symbiotically

Scientists review studies of the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation to better frame its role in air-sea interactions.

Extended-range forecast of spring rainfall in southern China based on the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Spring (March–May) rainfall after a dry period in winter has a substantial impact on agriculture and water management in populous southern China. The occurrence of low-frequency spring rainfall anomalies has been linked with the tropical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) through its modulation of large-scale circulation and moisture supply over southern China. Using the spatial and temporal information of the MJO as a predictor, an empirical model for extended-range forecasting of spring rainfall in southern China was constructed. We first obtained the coupled patterns between the preceding MJO evolutions (real-time multivariate MJO index) and the succeeding rainfall variability in southern China based on singular value decomposition analysis. Then, a prediction was carried out by projecting the predictor onto the spatiotemporal coupled patterns. Useful skill, in terms of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) between the predicted and observed rainfall over southern China, persisted up to a forecast lead-time of six pentads. The forecast amplitude bias in terms of root-mean-square error was around 1.0 standard deviation. Also, the forecast skill was highly dependent on the strength of the MJO signal. During active MJO periods, the TCC skill was around twofold larger than that during weak MJO periods. The current statistical model shows encouraging ability, but additional work is required to improve its forecasting skill.

Madden Julian Oscillation impacts on global ocean surface waves

We assess the impact of the tropical Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on global ocean wind waves using 30 years of wave data from a wave model hindcast that is forced with high resolution surface winds from the NCEP–CFSR reanalysis. We concentrate on the boreal winter season when the MJO has its greatest amplitude and is potentially a source of predictable wave impacts at intra-seasonal lead times. Statistically significant anomalies in significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp) and zonal wave energy flux (CgE) are found to covary with the intra-seasonal variation of surface zonal wind induced by the MJO as it traverses eastward from the western tropical Indian Ocean to the eastern tropical Pacific. Tp varies generally out of phase with Hs over the life cycle of the MJO, indicating that these MJO-wave anomalies are locally wind-generated rather than remotely generated by ocean swell.Pronounced Hs anomalies develop on the northwest shelf of Australia, where the MJO is known to influence sea level and surface temperatures, and in the western Caribbean Sea and Guatemalan–Panama Seas with enhanced wave anomalies apparent in the vicinity of the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gaps. Significant wave anomalies are also detected in the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans in connection with the MJO teleconnection to the extratropics via atmospheric wave propagation. The impact in the north Atlantic stems from induction of the high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) about 1 week after MJO convection traverses the Indian Ocean, and the low phase of the NAO about one week after suppressed convection traverses the Indian Ocean. Strong positive Hs anomalies maximize on the Northern European coast in the positive NAO phase and vice versa for the negative NAO phase. The MJO also influences the occurrence of daily low (below the 5th percentile) and high (above the 95th percentile) wave conditions across the tropics and in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, emphasizing that the MJO may be a valuable source of intra-seasonal predictability of surface wave variability.

Correlation between the Onset of the East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon and the Eastward Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract Using the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), the pentad Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and the 6-h Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset from 1979 to 2010, a composite analysis along with space–time wave filtering is performed to examine the linkage between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the onset of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) (over 20°–30°N, 110°–120°E). The onset of the EASSM is shown to be best characterized by the reversal of the mean meridional wind shear related to the rapid reestablishment of the South Asian high (SAH) over the southern Indochinese Peninsula in the upper troposphere. The mean date of EASMM onset is near the end of April, which is about a month earlier than the typical onset of the East Asian summer monsoon. Further analysis indicates that the onset of the EASSM and the reestablishment of SAH are often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the central and eastern Indian Ocean.

Representation of tropical subseasonal variability of precipitation in global reanalyses

Tropical subseasonal variability of precipitation from five global reanalyses (RAs) is evaluated against Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. The RAs include the three generations of global RAs from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and two other RAs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC). The analysis includes comparisons of the seasonal means and subseasonal variances of precipitation, and probability densities of rain intensity in selected areas. In addition, the space–time power spectrum was computed to examine the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). The modern RAs show significant improvement in their representation of the mean state and subseasonal variability of precipitation when compared to the two older NCEP RAs: patterns of the seasonal mean state and the amplitude of subseasonal variability are more realistic in the modern RAs. However, the probability density of rain intensity in the modern RAs show discrepancies from observations that are similar to what the old RAs have. The modern RAs show higher coherence of CCEWs with observed variability and more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO precipitation. The modern RAs, however, exhibit common systematic deficiencies including: (1) variability of the CCEWs that tends to be either too weak or too strong, (2) limited coherence with observations for waves other than the MJO, and (3) a systematic phase lead or lag for the higher-frequency waves.

Dependency of the North Pacific winter storm tracks on the zonal distribution of MJO convection

We investigate the effects of the tropical Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection on the zonal location and intensity of storm activity during the boreal cool season (Nov. 1 to Feb. 28, 120 days) over the Pacific Ocean. As tropical convection shifts eastward from the eastern Indian Ocean to the western North Pacific, MJO‐induced local Hadley circulation leads to an eastward displacement of extratropical Rossby Wave Source (RWS). Consequently, this influence leads to an eastward shift of the peak area of the storm track. The storm track is strongest with the MJO convection over the eastern Indian Ocean (phase 3), and it experiences the suppression when MJO convection is located over the Maritime continents (phase 4), and it increases again when the MJO propagates to the western Pacific (phase 5), after which it weakens again (phase 6). The intensity of the storm track, particularly over the western North Pacific (120°E–180°), is determined by the integrated effects of three factors: the midlatitude convective forcing (MCF), the jet stream, and RWS. These factors are associated with the locations of MJO convections. It is estimated that MJO‐induced suppression accounts for only 2.5% of the total observed midwinter suppression (MWS). However, the pattern generated by the MJO is remarkably similar to the observed meridional displacement of North Pacific storm track associated with sub‐seasonal variation. We conclude that the spatial distribution of MJO affects the variation of the Pacific storm track, but is not a cause of the MWS.