Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Early summer southern China rainfall variability and its oceanic drivers

Rainfall in southern China reaches its annual peak in early summer (May–June) with strong interannual variability. Using a combination of observational analysis and numerical modeling, the present study investigates the leading modes of this variability and its dynamic drivers. A zonal dipole pattern termed the southern China Dipole (SCD) is found to be the dominant feature in early summer during 1979–2014, and is closely related to a low-level anomalous anticyclone over the Philippine Sea (PSAC) and a Eurasian wave-train pattern over the mid–high latitudes. Linear regressions based on observations and numerical experiments using the CAM5 model suggest that the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies in early summer are linked to decaying El Niño-Southern Oscillation-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific, basin-scale SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, and meridional tripole-like SST anomalies in the North Atlantic in the previous winter to early summer. The tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies primarily exert an impact on the SCD through changing the polarity of the PSAC, while the North Atlantic tripole-like SST anomalies mainly exert a downstream impact on the SCD by inducing a Eurasian wave-train pattern. The North Atlantic tripole-like SST anomalies also make a relatively weak contribution to the variations of the PSAC and SCD through a subtropical teleconnection. Modeling results indicate that the three-basin combined forcing has a greater impact on the SCD and associated circulation anomalies than the individual influence from any single oceanic basin.

Contribution of the tropical western Atlantic thermal conditions during the preceding winter to summer temperature anomalies over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin–Jiangnan region

ABSTRACTUsing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) data sets, we examine the preceding factors in the Atlantic Ocean contributing to summer high temperature anomalies over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin–Jiangnan (LRYB–JN) region. We find that summer LRYB–JN surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies are highly correlated with, and physically connected to, the preceding winter SST and SAT anomalies in the tropical western Atlantic (TWA) region [(10°–30°N, 60°–35°W) and (0°–10°N, 50°–35°W)]. The effect of preceding winter thermal conditions in the TWA region can be explained by the following two mechanisms. Coupled with SST, positive TWA SAT anomalies can persist from the preceding winter to summer and excite a zonal wave train at middle latitudes extending from the Atlantic to Eurasia, with a deep and stable high pressure anomaly centred over the LRYB–JN region. As a result, high temperature anomalies occur over the LRYB–JN region. In addition to the above mechanism, the TWA SST–SAT coupled anomalies also exert an impact on summer LRYB–JN SAT by modulating the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SAT and SST variation, which causes summer LRYB–JN SAT anomalies. Given the contributions of TWA SAT anomalies, independent of and in concert with the TIO SAT variation, we define a preceding winter TWA–TIO SAT index, which measures the concurrent variation of TWA and TIO SATs. The preceding winter TWA–TIO index is more significantly correlated with the summer LRYB–JN SAT and therefore can reflect the latter better than the individual TWA or TIO SAT index.

Enhanced influence of early-spring tropical Indian Ocean SST on the following early-summer precipitation over Northeast China

The relationship between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and East Asian summer monsoon/precipitation has been documented in many studies. However, the precursor signals of summer precipitation in the TIO sea surface temperature (SST), which is important for climate prediction, have drawn little attention. This study identified a strong relationship between early-spring TIO SST and subsequent early-summer precipitation in Northeast China (NEC) since the late 1980s. For 1961–1986, the correlations between early-spring TIO SST and early-summer NEC precipitation were statistically insignificant; for 1989–2014, they were positively significant. Since the late 1980s, the early-spring positive TIO SST anomaly was generally followed by a significant anomalous anticyclone over Japan; that facilitated anomalous southerly winds over NEC, conveying more moisture from the North Pacific. Further analysis indicated that an early TIO SST anomaly showed robust persistence into early summer. However, the early-summer TIO SST anomaly displayed a more significant influence on simultaneous atmospheric circulation and further affected NEC precipitation since the late 1980s. In 1989–2014, the early-summer Hadley and Ferrell cell anomalies associated with simultaneous TIO SST anomaly were much more significant and extended further north to mid-latitudes, which provided a dynamic foundation for the TIO–mid-latitude connection. Correspondingly, the TIO SST anomaly could lead to significant divergence anomalies over the Mediterranean. The advections of vorticity by the divergent component of the flow effectively acted as a Rossby wave source. Thus, an apparent Rossby wave originated from the Mediterranean and propagated east to East Asia; that further influenced the NEC precipitation through modulation to the atmospheric circulation (e.g., surface wind, moisture, vertical motion).

Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Nino3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Nino-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Nino-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Nino are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Nino are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Nino years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are underestimated. On the other hand, many G2 models are able to represent most of large-scale circulation over Indo-Pacific region associated with El Nino and hence provide more realistic ENSO-ISM teleconnections. Therefore, this study advocates the importance of representation/simulation of large-scale circulation patterns during El Nino years in coupled models in order to capture El Nino-monsoon teleconnections well.

Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer

The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific–Japan or East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.

Impacts of ENSO diversity on the western Pacific and North Pacific subtropical highs during boreal summer

This study examines the interannual variability of the North Pacific high during boreal summer of 1979–2008 to understand how its leading modes are related to the two types of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, the first empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF1) is characterized by an in-phase variation between the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the northeastern Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), while the second mode (EOF2) is characterized by an out-of-phase WPSH–NPSH variation. The EOF1 mode dominates during the post early-1990s period and is a forced response to sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the maritime continent and tropical central Pacific (CP) regions related to developing CP ENSOs. Its in-phase WPSH–NPSH relationship is established through the ENSO-induced meridional atmospheric circulation, Pacific–North American pattern and eddy–zonal flow interaction over the North Pacific. In contrast, the EOF2 mode dominates prior to the early-1990s and is partially a forced response to tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and eastern Pacific (EP) SST variations related to decaying EP ENSOs and partially a coupled atmosphere–ocean response to western North Pacific SST variations. Of the 28 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project models, most (71 %) realistically simulate the EOF1 mode but only a few (14 %) simulate the EOF2 mode. The roughly 50 % underestimation in the strength of the EOF2 mode is due to model deficiencies in properly representing the atmospheric circulation responses to the IO and EP SST variations. This deficiency may be related to underestimations of the strength of the mean Walker circulation in the models.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in response to differences in the decay phase of El Niño

In general the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is near normal or excess during the El Nino decay phase. Nevertheless the impact of large variations in decaying El Nino on the ISM rainfall and circulation is not systematically examined. Based on the timing of El Nino decay with respect to boreal summer season, El Nino decay phases are classified into three types in this study using 142 years of sea surface temperature (SST) data, which are as follows: (1) early-decay (ED; decay during spring), (2) mid-summer decay (MD; decay by mid-summer) and (3) no-decay (ND; no decay in summer). It is observed that ISM rainfall is above normal/excess during ED years, normal during MD years and below normal/deficit in ND years, suggesting that the differences in El Nino decay phase display profound impact on the ISM rainfall. Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST warming, induced by El Nino, decays rapidly before the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) in ED years, but persists up to the end of the season in MD years, whereas TIO warming maintained up to winter in ND case. Analysis reveals the existence of strong sub-seasonal ISM rainfall variations in the summer following El Nino years. During ED years, strong negative SST anomalies develop over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific by June and are apparent throughout the summer season accompanied by anomalous moisture divergence and high sea level pressure (SLP). The associated moisture convergence and low SLP over ISM region favour excess rainfall (mainly from July onwards). This circulation and rainfall anomalies are highly influenced by warm TIO SST and Pacific La Nina conditions in ED years. Convergence of southwesterlies from Arabian Sea and northeasterlies from Bay of Bengal leads to positive rainfall over most part of the Indian subcontinent from August onwards in MD years. ND years are characterized by negative rainfall anomaly spatial pattern and weaker circulation over India throughout the summer season, which are mainly due to persisting El Nino related warm SST anomalies over the Pacific. Atmospheric general circulation model simulation supports our hypothesis that El Nino decay variations modulate ISM rainfall and circulation.

Combined influence of remote and local SST forcing on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall variability

The combined influence of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and Pacific Ocean (TPO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability is studied in the context of mid-1970s regime shift. The rainfall pattern on the various stages of monsoon during the developing and decaying summer of El Nino is emphasized. Analysis reveals that ISMR anomalies during El Nino developing summer in epoch-1 (1950–1979) are mainly driven by El Nino forcing throughout the season, whereas TIO SST exhibits only a passive influence. On the other hand in epoch-2 (1980–2009) ISMR does not show any significant relation with Pacific during the onset phase of monsoon whereas withdrawal phase is strongly influenced by El Nino. Again the eastern Indian Ocean cooling and westward shift in northwest Pacific (NWP) cyclonic circulation during epoch-2 have strong positive influence on the rainfall over the central and eastern India during the matured phase of monsoon. ISMR in the El Nino decaying summer does not show any significant anomalies in epoch-1 as both Pacific and Indian Ocean warming dissipate by the summer. On the other hand in epoch-2 ISMR anomalies are significant and display strong variability throughout the season. In the onset phase of monsoon, central and east India experience strong negative precipitation anomalies due to westward extension of persistent NWP anticyclone (forced by persisting Indian Ocean warming). The persistent TIO warming induces positive precipitation anomalies in the withdrawal phase of monsoon by changing the atmospheric circulation and modulating the water vapour flux. Moisture budget analysis unravels the dominant processes responsible for the differences between the two epochs. The moisture convergence and moisture advection are very weak (strong) over Indian land mass during epoch-1 (epoch-2) in El Nino decaying summer. The changing moisture availability and convergence play important role in explaining the weakening of ENSO monsoon relation in the recent years. The local TIO SST forcing and NWP circulation are prominent forcing factors for the interannual variability of ISMR during epoch-2.

Tropical Indian Ocean response to the decay phase of El Niño in a coupled model and associated changes in south and east-Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

This study investigates the response of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) to El Nino decay phase and its impacts on South and East Asian summer monsoon in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 free run. The TIO basin-wide warming induced by El Nino at its peak phase (winter; DJF) and next spring (MAM + 1) are reasonably well captured by the model but with weak magnitude. This TIO basin-wide SST warming persists until summer (JJA + 1) and exert strong impact on summer monsoon rainfall and circulation as revealed in the observations. However, TIO SST anomalies are very weak in the model during the El Nino decaying summers. Though El Nino decay is delayed by 2 months in the model, decay of TIO SST warming is faster than the observations. Anomalous latent heat loss from ocean and a feeble southern TIO Rossby waves associated with weak wind response to El Nino are mainly accountable for rapid decay of TIO SST warming by mid-summer in the model. This suggests that JJA + 1 TIO SST response to El Nino decay phase in the model is poorly represented. The model is able to capture the SST anomalies associated with the northwest Pacific anticyclone at the peak phase of El Nino but fail to maintain that during the decay phase in MAM + 1 and JJA + 1. It is found that precipitation and circulation anomalies associated with TIO SST warming over the South and East Asian regions are disorganized in the model during the decay phase of El Nino. Rainfall anomalies over the southwest TIO, west coast of India, northern flank of northwest Pacific anticyclone and over Japan in JJA + 1 are poorly represented by the model. Analysis of lower troposphere stream function and rotational wind component reveals that northwest Pacific anticyclone shifted far eastward to the date line in the model during JJA + 1 unlike in the observations. Anomalous divergence observed over the western TIO and convergence in the northwest Pacific are absent in the model during JJA + 1. Extension of anomalous tropospheric warming from TIO region to equatorial western Pacific is also very weak in the model due to poor representation of TIO SSTs and the subsequent absence of any Kelvin wave response. Anomalous Walker circulation persisted from DJF to JJA + 1 due to El Nino late decay in the model unlike in the observations. This is also found to be responsible for the redundant changes in SST, rainfall and circulation over the Indo-western Pacific in the model. This study demonstrates that it is essential to represent the decay phase of El Nino and the associated TIO response accurately to have realistic simulations of summer monsoon in the decaying year.

Seasonality in Prediction Skill and Predictable Pattern of Tropical Indian Ocean SST

Abstract Seasonality of sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) was investigated using hindcasts (1982–2009) made with the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 produced useful predictions of the TIO SST with lead times up to several months. A substantial component of this skill was attributable to signals other than the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). The prediction skill of the IOD index, defined as the difference between the SST anomaly (SSTA) averaged over 10°S–0°, 90°–110°E and 10°S–10°N, 50°–70°E, had strong seasonality, with high scores in the boreal autumn. In spite of skill in predicting its two poles with longer leads, CFSv2 did not have skill significantly better than persistence in predicting IOD. This was partly because the seasonal nature of IOD intrinsically limits its predictability. The seasonality of the predictable patterns of the TIO SST was further explored by applying the maximum signal-to-noise (MSN) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to the predicted SSTA in March and October, respectively. The most predictable pattern in spring was the TIO basin warming, which is closely associated with El Niño. The basin mode, including its associated atmospheric anomalies, can be predicted at least 9 months ahead, even though some biases were evident. On the other hand, the most predictable pattern in fall was characterized by the IOD mode. This mode and its associated atmospheric variations can be skillfully predicted only 1–2 seasons ahead. Statistically, the predictable IOD mode coexists with El Niño; however, the 1994 event in a non-ENSO year (at least not a canonical ENSO year) can also be predicted at least 3 months ahead by CFSv2.

Modulation of the connection between boreal winter ENSO and the South Asian high in the following summer by the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation

AbstractThis study investigated the modulation effect of boreal winter quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on the connection between winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the variability of the following summer's South Asian high (SAH) by using European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2013. The results suggest that the boreal summer SAH is more significantly influenced by preceding ENSO events in the easterly phase of the QBO than in the westerly phase. The change in the ENSO‐SAH relationship in the different QBO phases may be attributable to the change in the ENSO‐induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Specifically, ENSO's influence on the following summer's TIO SST is more significant when the QBO is in its easterly phase than westerly phase. Further analysis showed that the change in the connection between ENSO and the TIO SST in the different QBO phases may be attributable to change in the anomalous tropical Indian Ocean cell (IOC) associated with ENSO. In particular, the anomalous IOC induced by anomalous Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific is stronger and located further west in QBO easterly than westerly phase. This leads to stronger descending motion and larger SST anomalies over the TIO in the QBO easterly phase. These larger SST anomalies over the TIO in the QBO easterly phase could exert a more significant influence on the tropospheric temperature through moist adjustment, which subsequently results in stronger SAH variability.

Two flavors of the Indian Ocean Dipole

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is known as a climate mode in the tropical Indian Ocean accompanied by negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern (western) pole during its positive phase. However, the western pole of the IOD is not always covered totally by positive SST anomalies. For this reason, the IOD is further classified into two types in this study based on SST anomalies in the western pole. The first type (hereafter “canonical IOD”) is associated with negative (positive) SST anomalies in the eastern (central to western) tropical Indian Ocean. The second type (hereafter “IOD Modoki”), on the other hand, is associated with negative SST anomalies in the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean and positive SST anomalies in the central tropical Indian Ocean. Based on composite analyses, it is found that easterly wind anomalies cover the whole equatorial Indian Ocean in the canonical IOD, and as a result, positive rainfall anomalies are observed over East Africa. Also, due to the basin-wide easterly wind anomalies, the canonical IOD is accompanied by strong sea surface height (SSH) anomalies. In contrast, zonal wind anomalies converge in the central tropical Indian Ocean in the IOD Modoki, and no significant precipitation anomalies are found over East Africa. Also, only weak SSH anomalies are seen, because equatorial downwelling anomalies induced by westerly wind anomalies in the west are counteracted by equatorial upwelling anomalies caused by easterly wind anomalies in the east.

Recent Winter Precipitation Increase in the Middle–Lower Yangtze River Valley since the Late 1970s: A Response to Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Abstract The middle–lower valley of the Yangtze River (MLY), located in the middle of eastern China, has been one of the largest economic centers of China since ancient times. Winter precipitation variability over the MLY is important for China because of its significant influence on the local economy. However, few studies have focused on the long-term variability of winter precipitation over the MLY. This study reports a significant wetting trend over the MLY in winter during the three decades since the late 1970s, forming a “mid-east-China winter wetting” pattern, which has become an important feature of precipitation change under the weakening East Asian winter monsoon. This wetting trend in the MLY also implies the poleward extension of the precipitation belts of southern China. Further investigation reveals that the increasing sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is the dominant factor responsible for recent increases in precipitation over the MLY. The thermal forcing driven by warming of the TIO SST gives rise to an anomalous cyclonic circulation along the coast of eastern China. This transports more water vapor onto the Chinese mainland, shifts and causes anomalous convergence over the MLY, and generates the increase in precipitation there. As such, the increasing SST in the TIO induces over 80% of the observed wetting trend over the MLY. This mechanism was verified by results obtained from two sets of sensitivity experiments using a numerical spectral atmospheric general circulation model. Thus, increasing SST in the TIO has made a dominant contribution to the recent winter precipitation increase over the MLY.

Possible roles of regional SST anomalies in long-term changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoon rainfall

The present study investigates long-term changes in the relationship between interannual variations of the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) and the Australian monsoon rainfall (AMR) during the period 1900–2010. It is found that the relationship between austral summer AMR and the following boreal summer IMR (denoted as the AMR-IMR relationship) is negative during 1900–1930 and 1960–1990, but weak positive during 1930–1960. This long-term change in the AMR-IMR relationship is more prominent than the change in the relationship between boreal summer IMR and the succeeding austral summer AMR (denoted as the IMR-AMR relationship). The impact of regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies north of Australia on the IMR to AMR transition has experienced obvious changes during the analysis period. The long-term change in the IMR-AMR relationship is attributed to the change in impacts of regional SST anomalies north of Australia and their coherence with equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies. It is found that the east-west SST anomaly gradient in the North Indian Ocean is an important factor in the IMR variations. The impact of the North Indian Ocean zonal SST anomaly gradient on the AMR to IMR transition has changed largely during the analysis period. This appears to be a major reason for the long-term change in the AMR-IMR relationship. The changes in the impacts of regional SST anomaly or SST anomaly gradient are associated with changes in the amplitude of regional SST anomalies that are likely due to the change in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related SST anomaly pattern.

Role of upper ocean processes in the seasonal SST evolution over tropical Indian Ocean in climate forecasting system

In this study role of upper ocean processes in the evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal variations over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in climate forecast system version1 (CFSv1) and version2 (CFSv2). Analysis reveals that CFSv2 could capture seasonal evolution of SST, wind speed and mixed layer depth better than CFSv1 with some biases. Discrepancy in reproducing the evolution of seasonal SST in coupled models leads to bias in the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. This has motivated to carry out mixed layer heat budget analysis in determining seasonal evolution of TIO SST. Spatial pattern of mixed layer heat budget from observations and models suggest that the processes responsible for SST tendency differ from region to region over the TIO. Further it is found that models underestimated SST tendency compared to the observations. Misrepresentation of advective processes and heat flux (HF) over the TIO is mainly responsible for the distortion of seasonal SST change in the coupled models. Sub-regional heat budget analysis reveals that CFSv1 is unable to reproduce the annual cycle of mixed layer temperature (MLT) tendency over the Arabian Sea, while CFSv2 captured the annual cycle of SST with systematic cold bias. Misrepresentation of the annual cycles of net HF and horizontal advection (Hadv) are accountable for the low rate of change of MLT during most of the year. Hadv during summer season is underestimated by 50 and 25 % respectively in CFSv1 and CFSv2. Further, CFSv1 fails to simulate MLT tendency due to improper evolution of HF annual cycle over the Bay of Bengal. Though annual cycle of HF in CFSv2 is well represented over the Bay of Bengal, its contribution to MLT change is underestimated compared to observations. Over the southern TIO region, MLT tendency is dominated by HF and Hadv terms in both observations and models. Contribution of HF to the annual cycle of MLT tendency is underestimated in CFSv1 whereas it is overestimated in CFSv2. Contribution of Hadv to MLT change is underestimated by about 50 % in CFSv1 and 10–20 % in CFSv2 over southern TIO. These errors in HF and Hadv are associated with biases in HF components and surface wind representation. Evolution of lead–lag relationship between HF and MLT/SST in both the observations and models suggest the importance of HF in SST evolution over the TIO region. Over all, CFSv2 produced better SST seasonal/annual cycle in spite of having cold bias. This improvement in CFSv2 may be attributed to better cloud–aerosol–radiation physics, which reduces radiation biases. Updated land-surface, ocean and sea ice processes and ocean component may be responsible for improved circulation and annual cycle of ocean–atmospheric components (winds and ocean circulation). However, there is a requirement for improved parameterization of turbulent HF and radiation estimates in CFSv2 to reduce the cold SST bias.

Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode recorded in coral oxygen isotope data from the Seychelles over the past 148 years

The tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) displays a uniform basin-wide warming or cooling in sea surface temperature (SST) during the decay year of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. This warming or cooling is called the tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM). Recent studies showed that the IOBM dominates the interannual variability of the TIO SST and has impacts on the tropical climate from the TIO to the western Pacific. Analyses on a 148-year-long monthly coral δ 18O record from the Seychelles Islands demonstrate that the Seychelles coral δ 18O not only is associated with the local SST but also indicates the interannul variability of the basin-wide SST in the TIO. Moreover, the Seychelles coral δ 18O shows a dominant period of 3–7 years that well represents the variability of the IOBM, which in return is modulated by the inter-decadal climate variability. The correlation between the Seychelles coral δ 18O and the SST reveals that the coral δ 18O lags the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific by five months and reaches its peak in the spring following the mature phase of ENSO. The spatial pattern of the first EOF mode indicates that the Seychelles Islands are located at the crucial place of the IOBM. Thus, the Seychelles coral δ 18O could be used as a proxy of the IOBM to investigate the ENSO teleconnection on the TIO in terms of long-time climate variability.

The decadal variability of the tropical Indian Ocean SST–the South Asian High relation: CMIP5 model study

Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, present study investigates the decadal variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST)–the South Asian High (SAH) relation (hereafter TSR) as well as its responses to the global warming. Out of the 17 CMIP5 models, only one (GFDL-CM3) reproduces reasonably the influence of the TIO SST on the SAH. In the historical simulations of GFDL-CM3, the TSR features fluctuations modulated by the western Pacific SST and the Indian subcontinent precipitation. When the TIO warming is accompanied by warm western Pacific, the western Pacific SST-induced tropospheric warming propagates westwards, warms the troposphere surrounding the Indian Ocean, enhances SAH and leads to higher TSR; when accompanied by not so warmed western Pacific, the TSR is lower. While, if the TIO warming is accompanied by negative rainfall anomalies over the Indian subcontinent, the rainfall-induced upper-troposphere cyclone over the subtropical Asia weakens the response of the SAH and leads to lower TSR; if not accompanied by negative rainfall anomalies, the TSR is higher. The decadal variability of the TSR is not subject to the global warming. In RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios, the TSR is also not directly affected by global warming. The rainfall over the Indian subcontinent is still a factor modulating the TSR. While, the western Pacific SST is invalid in the influences of the TIO SST on the SAH.

Relation of the South China Sea Precipitation Variability to Tropical Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies during Spring-to-Summer Transition

Abstract The present study investigates the relationship of South China Sea (SCS) precipitation to tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during April–June (AMJ), which is the transition season from spring to summer. It is revealed that SCS rainfall anomalies in AMJ are influenced by SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific (EP), tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), and western North Pacific (WNP). Three types of SST-influenced cases are obtained based on different combinations of SST anomalies in the above three regions. When same-sign EP and TIO SST anomalies are accompanied by opposite WNP SST anomalies, both anomalous cross-equatorial flows from the southwestern TIO induced by negative SST anomalies there and an anomalous Walker circulation forced by negative EP SST anomalies contribute to enhanced convection over the SCS and the surrounding regions with additional contribution from positive WNP SST anomalies via a Rossby wave–type response. In the cases of combined effects of EP and WNP SST anomalies, above-normal SST in the WNP is a direct cause of above-normal SCS rainfall though the WNP SST anomalies are induced by EP SST forcing. In the cases of combined impacts of TIO and EP SST anomalies, the accompanying coastal Sumatra SST anomalies contribute to the SCS rainfall variability via an anomalous cross-equatorial vertical circulation. The negative SST anomalies near the Sumatra coast induce descent over the southeastern TIO and ascent over the SCS and WNP. Model experiments with an atmospheric model confirm the impacts of southern TIO and EP SST anomalies on AMJ rainfall variation over the SCS.

Links between southwestern tropical Indian Ocean SST and precipitation over southeastern Africa over the last 17 kyr

Time series of Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca, and δ18O analyzed in tests of surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber from two marine sediment cores recovered in the Mozambique Channel off the Zambezi River, southwestern tropical Indian Ocean, reveal climate variability over the last 17kyr. Analysis of samples collected from the water column of the Mozambique Channel validates that Mg/Ca in G. ruber reflects calcification temperatures at 0–30m water depth and that the surface water of the southwestern Indian Ocean is very sensitive to dissolved Ba input from adjacent rivers. Foraminiferal Ba/Ca and Mg/Ca time series are used to reconstruct hydrological and thermal changes over southeastern African and southwestern tropical oceans. The Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates indicate that the thermal evolution of the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean followed, within age model uncertainties, climate changes over Antarctica. The trend of the SST record is marked by a gradual warming from 24.7±0.6°C at 17.0±0.2kyr BP to 26.4±0.3°C at 10–11kyr BP interrupted by two prominent coolings of ~1.5±0.2°C and ~1°C centered at 15±0.1kyr BP and 13.4±0.2kyr BP, respectively. Declining SSTs in the early Holocene reach their minimum (25°C) at 8.7±0.2kyr BP and give way to stable thermal conditions over the Middle and Late Holocene. The Ba/Ca record indicates that the Zambezi basin experienced relatively wet conditions during the early phase of the last deglaciation, Bølling–Allerød, and the early Holocene. These wet phases coincide with an increase of SST in the Mozambique Channel. In contrast, relatively dry conditions throughout the middle and late Holocene epoch are accompanied by relatively cold Mozambique Channel surface water. These shifts likely reflect a response to meridional shifts of the austral westerlies and subtropical front. These hypothesized shifts would have modulated the advection of cold Southern Ocean water into the Mozambique Channel. Changes in SST in the Mozambique Channel, and possible resultant changes in the zonal gradient in the tropical Indian Ocean, in turn, had a strong impact on the precipitation over southeastern Africa.

Role of Ocean in the Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Asian summer monsoon sets in over India after the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves across the equator to the northern hemisphere over the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on either side of the equator in Indian and Pacific oceans are found related to the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India). Droughts in the June to September monsoon rainfall of India are followed by warm SST anomalies over tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over west Pacific Ocean. These anomalies persist till the following monsoon which gives normal or excess rainfall (tropospheric biennial oscillation). Thus, we do not get in India many successive drought years as in sub-Saharan Africa, thanks to the ocean. Monsoon rainfall of India has a decadal variability in the form of 30-year epochs of frequent (infrequent) drought monsoons occurring alternately. Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well-known decadal oscillation in SST of the Atlantic Ocean (also of the Pacific Ocean) are found to run parallel with about the same period close to 60 years and the same phase. In the active–break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon, the ocean and the atmosphere are found to interact on the time scale of 30–60 days. Net heat flux at the ocean surface, monsoon low-level jetstream (LLJ) and the seasonally persisting shallow mixed layer of the ocean north of the LLJ axis play important roles in this interaction. In an El Nino year, the LLJ extends eastwards up to the date line creating an area of shallow ocean mixed layer there, which is hypothesised to lengthen the active–break (AB) cycle typically from 1 month in a La Nina to 2 months in an El Nino year. Indian monsoon droughts are known to be associated with El Ninos, and long break monsoon spells are found to be a major cause of monsoon droughts. In the global warming scenario, the observed rapid warming of the equatorial Indian ocean SST has caused the weakening of both the monsoon Hadley circulation and the monsoon LLJ which has been related to the observed rapid decreasing trend in the seasonal number of monsoon depressions.