Hurricane Research Articles

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Climate projection of tropical cyclone lifetime in the western North Pacific basin

Abstract In this study, the potential changes of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific basin are examined for different future climates. Using homogeneous 9 km-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we show that TC averaged lifetime displays insignificant change under both low and high greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios. However, more noticeable changes in the tails of TC lifetime statistics are captured in our downscaling simulations, with more frequent long-lived TCs (lifetime of 8-11 days) and less short-lived TCs (lifetime of 3-5 days). Unlike present-day simulations, it is found that the correlation between TC lifetime and the Niño index is relatively weak and insignificant in all future downscaling simulations, thus offering little explanation for these changes in TC lifetime statistics based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. More detailed analyses of TC track distribution in the western North Pacific basin reveal, nevertheless, a noticeable shift of TC track patterns towards the end of the 21st century. Such a change in TC track climatology results in an overall longer duration of TCs over the open ocean, which is consistent across future scenarios and periods examined in this study. This shift in the TC track pattern is ultimately linked to changes in the Western North Pacific Subtropical High, which retreats to the south during July and to the east during August-September. The results obtained in this study provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can affect TC lifetime in the western North Pacific basin in warmer climates.

Evaluation of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Error Statistics Stratified by Internal Structure and Environmental Metrics

Abstract This study quantifies tropical cyclone (TC) error statistics from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) across different environmental conditions (e.g., vertical wind shear) and inner core structural metrics. A particular focus is the evolution of poorly understood aspects of internal TC structure, including vortex tilt, and their impact on forecast errors. Although previous studies have demonstrated that vortex tilt, vertical wind shear, and precipitation processes impact TC intensity and track, this is the first known study to stratify these cooperative interactions to gain insights on their relationships with forecast errors. A three-year retrospective sample of forecasts in the North Atlantic basin from two HAFS configurations (-A and -B) demonstrates that TCs with larger tilt magnitudes have larger forecast track errors on average than smaller tilt TCs. Smaller tilt magnitudes have larger absolute intensity errors in short range forecasts, whereas larger tilt magnitudes tend to have larger negative intensity biases at medium range. TCs with a tilted vortex are shown to have both left of shear (maximizing DSL) and left of tilt oriented positional track biases. Furthermore, those cases with greater downshear biases tend to have more convection and larger positive intensity biases, highlighting the importance of the interplay between inner core characteristics and forecast errors.

Defaunation impacts on the carbon balance of tropical forests.

The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change necessitates a comprehensive understanding of carbon cycling dynamics. Traditionally, global carbon cycle models have focused on vegetation, but recent research suggests that animals can play a significant role in carbon dynamics under some circumstances, potentially enhancing the effectiveness of nature-based solutions to mitigate climate change. However, links between animals, plants, and carbon remain unclear. We explored the complex interactions between defaunation and ecosystem carbon in Earth's most biodiverse and carbon-rich biome, tropical rainforests. Defaunation can change patterns of seed dispersal, granivory, and herbivory in ways that alter tree species composition and, therefore, forest carbon above- and belowground. Most studies we reviewed show that defaunation reduces carbon storage 0-26% in the Neo- and Afrotropics, primarily via population declines in large-seeded, animal-dispersed trees. However, Asian forests are not predicted to experience changes because their high-carbon trees are wind dispersed. Extrapolating these local effects to entire ecosystems implies losses of ∼1.6 Pg CO2 equivalent across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and 4-9.2 Pg across the Amazon over 100 years and of ∼14.7-26.3 Pg across the Congo basin over 250 years. In addition to being hard to quantify with precision, the effects of defaunation on ecosystem carbon are highly context dependent; outcomes varied based on the balance between antagonist and mutualist species interactions, abiotic conditions, human pressure, and numerous other factors. A combination of experiments, large-scale comparative studies, and mechanistic models could help disentangle the effects of defaunation from other anthropogenic forces in the face of the incredible complexity of tropical forest systems. Overall, our synthesis emphasizes the importance of-and inconsistent results when-integrating animal dynamics into carbon cycle models, which is crucial for developing climate change mitigation strategies and effective policies.

Understanding Tropical Cyclones in the Anthropocene: Physics, Simulations, and Attribution

Understanding Tropical Cyclones in the Anthropocene: Physics, Simulations, and Attribution

Sensitivity of radar data on landfall processes of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

Sensitivity of radar data on landfall processes of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

Co-Inoculation of Phosphate-Solubilizing Bacteria and Rhizobia Increases Phosphorus Availability and Promotes the Development of Forage Legumes

Tropical grassland soils, especially those with alkaline properties, often exhibit limited phosphorus availability due to its precipitation in insoluble forms. Phosphate-solubilizing bacteria (PSB) and rhizobia have demonstrated their potential to enhance the availability of this nutrient and promote the growth of forage legumes. This study, conducted under controlled conditions in a mesh house, evaluated the effect of co-inoculation with PSB, including Micrococcus sp. Sfcm-14-01, Agrobacterium sp. Sfl-043-09, and Enterobacter sp. Sfcm-014-02 and Sfcm-054-06, along with rhizobia (Ensifer terangae R1-012-02 and Bradyrhizobium glycinis Rcm-025-01), under different levels of phosphorus fertilization on the legumes Leucaena leucocephala and Centrosema macrocarpum. The results indicate significant increases in various growth parameters, such as chlorophyll levels (SPAD), biomass (dry weight of roots and aerial parts) (mg), the foliar phosphorus concentration (ppm), and the concentration of available phosphorus in the soil, particularly under low-phosphorus fertilization conditions. The highest level of available phosphorus in the soil was achieved with 75% of the recommended fertilization dose, resulting in concentrations of 13.73 ppm for L. leucocephala and 7.69 ppm for C. macrocarpum, representing increases in phosphorus availability of 170.81% and 240.27%, respectively, compared with no fertilization or inoculation. These findings suggest that the co-inoculation of PSB and native rhizobia is a promising strategy to enhance the biomass productivity and mineral content of forage in tropical grazing systems, especially under phosphorus-limited conditions.

Seasonal Characteristics of Air–Sea Exchanges over the South Coast of Matara, Sri Lanka

Air–sea exchanges play a crucial role in intense weather events over Sri Lanka, particularly by providing the heat and moisture that fuel heavy rainfall. We present a year-round dataset of meteorological observations from the southern shoreline of Sri Lanka in the equatorial Indian Ocean for 2017, aiming to investigate its seasonal characteristics and evaluate the performance of reanalysis data in this region. The observations reveal distinct diurnal and seasonal patterns. During the winter and spring, higher shortwave (646.2 W/m2) and longwave radiation (−86.9 W/m2) are coupled with higher temperatures (30.6 °C) and lower humidity (67.4% at noon). In contrast, the Indian summer monsoon period features reduced shortwave (579.8 W/m2) and longwave radiation (−58.6 W/m2), lower temperatures (29.2 °C), higher humidity (over 79.7%), and stronger winds (6.25 m/s). The observations were compared with the ERA5 reanalysis dataset to evaluate the regional performance. The reanalysis data correlated well with the observed data for the radiation, temperature, and sensible heat flux, although notable deviations occurred in terms of the wind speed and latent heat flux. During the impact of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi, the reanalysis data tended to underestimate both the wind speed and precipitation. This dataset will provide vital support for studies on monsoons and coastal atmospheric convection, as well as for model initialization and synergistic applications.

Impacts of tropical cyclone–heat wave compound events on surface ozone in eastern China: comparison between the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas

Abstract. China has implemented some air pollution management measures in recent years, yet severe ozone pollution remains a significant issue. The southeastern coast of China (SECC) is often influenced by hot extremes and tropical cyclones (TCs), and the two can occur simultaneously (TC–HDs). The compound TC–HDs show a rising trend in the summers of 2014–2019, potentially affecting ozone pollution. Here, we found that surface ozone concentrations over the SECC are more elevated during extremely hot days than the summer climatology. However, compared to extremely hot days alone (AHDs), the maximum 8 h average ozone (MDA8 O3) concentration increases by an average of 6.8 µg m−3 in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and decreases by 13.2 µg m−3 in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during the compound TC–HDs. The meteorological conditions during AHDs favor the chemical production of ozone over the SECC, exhibiting increased temperature and solar radiation and decreased relative humidity. Relative to AHDs, strong northeasterly winds prevail in the SECC during TC–HDs, suggesting the potential of ozone cross-regional transport between YRD and PRD. The process analysis in the chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) suggests that relative to AHDs, the chemical production of ozone is enhanced in YRD during TC–HDs, while horizontal transport alleviates ozone pollution in YRD but worsens it in PRD through cross-regional transport. The results highlight the significant effects of cross-regional transport in modulating ozone pollution in the two megacity clusters during hot extremes accompanied by TC activities, giving insight into future ozone control measures over the SECC under global warming.

Influence of CyGNSS L2 wind data on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasts in the coupled HAFS/HYCOM system

This study examines the influence of NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CyGNSS) Level 2-derived 10 m (near-surface) wind speed over the ocean on analyses and forecasts within the NOAA operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). HAFS is coupled with a regional configuration of the HYCOM ocean model. The primary advantages of data from the CyGNSS constellation of satellites include higher revisit frequency compared to polar-orbiting satellites, and the availability of reliable wind observations over the ocean surface during convective precipitation. CyGNSS data are available early in the life cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) when aerial reconnaissance observations are not available. We focus on TCs whose forecasts were initialized when the TC was a depression or tropical storm. In the present study, we find first, that assimilation of CyGNSS near-surface winds improves storm track, intensity, and structure statistics in the analysis and early in the forecast, for many cases. Second, we find that assimilation of CyGNSS observations provides additional insights into the evolution of air-sea interaction in intensifying TCs: In effect, the ocean responds in the coupled model to modifications in the initial 10 m wind field, thereby impacting forecasts of intensity, storm structure, and sea surface height, as demonstrated by two case studies. We also discuss some forecasts where assimilating CYGNSS appears to degrade performance for either intensity or structure.

Reasons for Different Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Abstract Recent several studies have focused on the predictability of tropical cyclone track forecast. As a response to the question issued by Landsea and Cangialosi (2018) about "the approaching limit of predictability for tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is near or has already been reached", Zhou and Toth (2020) (short for ZT20) and Yu et al. (2022) (short for Y22) have found that the limit of predictability for TC track prediction has not been reached both in Atlantic (ATL) and Western North Pacific (WNP) basins. However, the predictabilities are different in two basins, as ZT20 found that 1 day's improvement can be obtained through 10 years in ATL, while Y22 found that 2 days' improvement can be obtained through 15 years in WNP. To reveal the causes of this difference, the predictability of TC track in WNP is first investigated under the same framework as ZT20. Then important parameters that determined the predictabilities are found and analyzed. Results suggested that the growth rate of true track forecast error in WNP is higher than that in ATL, indicating a lower predictability in WNP. Further explorations suggested that TCs in WNP basin have averagely larger sizes, stronger intensities, lower-latitude locations, and poorer forecast skills of their guided flows. All these factors contribute to the larger track forecast error growth rate. Moreover, it is pointed out that as the improvement of forecast skills over years mainly due to the reduction of initial analysis errors, although a lower predictability is found in WNP, the forecast skill improvement in WNP is faster than that in ATL.

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event

In August 2022, Pakistan experienced unprecedented monsoon rains, leading to devastating floods and landslides affecting millions. While previous research has mainly focused on the contributions of seasonal and synoptic anomalies, this study elucidates the dominant influences of tropical and extratropical intraseasonal oscillations on both the occurrence and subseasonal prediction of this extreme rainfall event. Our scale-decomposed moisture budget analysis revealed that intense rainfall in Pakistan was triggered and sustained by enhanced vertical moisture transport anomalies, primarily driven by interactions between intraseasonal circulation anomalies and the prevailing background moisture field when tropical and mid-latitude systems coincided over Pakistan. Evaluation of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models further highlighted the critical role of tropical intraseasonal modes in causing this extreme rainfall event in Pakistan. Models that accurately predicted northward-propagating intraseasonal convection with a forecast lead time of 8–22 days demonstrated good skill in predicting the extreme event over Pakistan.

Examining Tropical Convection Features at Storm‐Resolving Scales Over the Maritime Continent Region

AbstractGlobal Storm Resolving Models (GSRMs) provide a way to understand weather and climate events across scales for better‐informed climate impacts. In this work, we apply the recently developed and validated CAM (Community Atmosphere Model)—MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) modeling framework, based on the open‐source Community Earth System Model (CESM2), to examine the tropical convection features at the storm resolving scale over the Maritime Continent region at 3 km horizontal spacing. We target two global numerical experiments during the winter season of 2018 for comparison with observation in the region. We focus on the investigation of the representations of the convective systems, precipitation statistics, and tropical cyclone behaviors. We found that regional‐refined experiments show more accurate precipitation distributions, diurnal cycles, and better agreement with observations for tropical cyclone features in terms of intensity and strength statistics. We expect the exploration of this work will further advance the development and use of the storm‐resolving model in precipitation predictions across scales.

When conflict becomes calamity: Understanding the role of armed conflict dynamics in natural disasters

Can armed conflict amplify the societal impacts and humanitarian consequences of natural hazards? Given that these hazards affect millions of people worldwide and that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, it is paramount that we advance our understanding of what makes societies vulnerable to these hazards. Existing research has focused mainly on political violence as a consequence of natural hazard-related disasters but has neglected that conflict can also be an underlying factor that shapes the impact of these events. Consequently, we know little about whether and how exposure to violent armed conflict increases vulnerability to natural hazards. This study argues that the local dynamics of conflict can have a significant effect on vulnerability and empirically investigates how periods of high-intensity conflict can affect the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards in the context of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. By combining data on physical storm exposure with highly detailed subnational data on disaster fatalities and conflict events, the empirical analysis allows the identification of the independent effect of conflict on hazard impacts. Results show that local periods of high-intensity conflict significantly increase the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards. These results have important implications for research investigating the impacts of disasters on peace and conflict, as they show that the consequences of natural disasters depend fundamentally on pre-existing conflict dynamics.

Integrated Modeling Approach to Assess Freshwater Inflow Impact on Coastal Water Quality

The quality of freshwater input from tributaries of the Western Mississippi Sound (WMSS) impacts the quality of coastal water. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models can be coupled to assess the impact of freshwater inflow from coastal watersheds. This study aims to compare the performance of a hydrodynamic model and a hydrological–hydrodynamic coupled model in detecting the effect of freshwater inflow from the coastal watersheds of the state of Mississippi into the WMSS. A hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and a hydrodynamic model, the visual Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (vEFDC), were coupled to evaluate the difference between the hydrodynamical modelling approach, which employs an area-weighted approach to define flow and nutrient concentrations, and the more recent coupling model approach, which uses a hydrological model to determine the flow and nutrient load of the model. Furthermore, a nutrient load sensitivity analysis of the effect of freshwater inflow on water quality in the WMSS was conducted in addition to assessing the repercussions of tropical depressions. Hydrological assessments of the major tributaries watersheds of Saint Louis Bay (SLB) at the WMSS were performed using the SWAT model. After calibration/validation of the SWAT model, the streamflow output from the SWAT was incorporated into the vEFDC model. Finally, hydrodynamic simulation of the SWAT-vEFDC model was conducted, and water quality output was compared at different SLB locations. The salinity, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were assessed by comparing the vEFDC and SWAT-vEFDC outputs. The results indicated that hydrological input from the SWAT alters the flow and nutrient concentration results as compared to an area-weighted approach. In addition, a major impact on the concentration of TN and TP occurred at the location where the freshwater flows into SLB. This impact diminishes further away from the point of freshwater inflow. Moreover, a 25% nutrient load variation did not demonstrate a difference in water quality at the WMSS besides TN and TP in a post-tropical depression scenario. Therefore, the SWAT-vEFDC coupled approach provided insights into evaluation of the area-weighted method, and of hydrological model output to the hydrodynamical model, the effect of freshwater inflow into coastal waters, and nutrient sensitivity analysis, which are important for integrated coastal ecosystems management.

Impacts of an Upper Tropospheric Cold Low on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Abstract Following a previous study examining the influence of an upper tropospheric cold low (CL) on the track of a nearby tropical cyclone (TC), this study investigates the impacts of a CL on TC intensity. The results suggest that the relative position and separation distance between the CL and TC are the key factors affecting TC intensity. When located outside the CL’s radius of maximum wind (RMW) but within its circulation, TCs initially in the northwest quadrant of the CL intensify faster than those in the other quadrants. The β effect causes the CL to move northwestward toward the TC and enhances eddy momentum flux convergence. Meanwhile, the upper-level TC outflow erodes the CL and reduces the associated vertical wind shear, promoting TC intensification. In contrast, for TCs initially located southeast of the CL, the attraction of Fujiwhara effect between the two entities counteracts the CL’s β drift and helps to maintain their separation distance. Moreover, Rossby wave energy dispersion induces an anticyclone southeast of the CL, which transports lower-θe air toward the TC and hinders the TC development. Furthermore, TCs within the CL’s RMW reach a similar intensity due to their PV superposition, irrespective of their relative positions to the CL. For TCs located outside the CL circulation, the CL’s impacts are largely negligible for TCs located northwest of CL, but TCs located southeast of the CL may still be affected by the CL-induced anticyclone.

Response of Upwelling Parameter Before, During, and After Tropical Cyclone (Case Study: Tropical Cyclone Marcus)

Tropical cyclones (TC) can cause damage when they are on the land surface, but on the other hand TC contribute to ocean productivity through upwelling or downwelling when they pass through the ocean. Information of the location and timing of upwelling and downwelling is important for fishing - activities estimation. High chlorophyll-a concentrations and low sea surface temperatures are proxies for upwelling events in the ocean. This study aims to investigate the effects of the TC Marcus on the chlorophyll-a distribution in the Timor Sea using a combination of remotely sensed data from Aqua MODIS chlorophyll-a and ocean-atmosphere reanalysis outputs. The results showed that wind speed, sea surface temperature, salinity, and ocean currents were increased during the TC Marcus event. Spatial analysis reveals that the concentration of chlorophyll-a is high in the waters of the Timor Sea, at coordinates around 12°–13° S and 125°–129° E. High chlorophyll-a concentrations occurred before and after TC Marcus event, according to temporal analysis. The distribution of chlorophyll-a concentrations decreased on March 17–24, 2018, during the occurrence of the TC Marcus in the Timor Sea.

Spatial Variability of Dropsonde‐Derived Moist Static Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

AbstractThe spatial variability of moist static energy (MSE) and its column‐integral (CMSE) around tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to help prognose TC development. Though limited in number and spatial coverage per TC, modeling work suggests that dropsondes, when strategically deployed, can reliably capture radial MSE and CMSE variability. This study uses North Atlantic upper‐level reconnaissance dropsondes from 1996 to 2021 to produce the most extensive observational analysis of MSE structure in TCs to date. MSE and CMSE decrease with distance from the TC center. MSE spatial variability is larger in Category 1 and 2 hurricanes compared to tropical storms, and generally largest after a TC's lifetime maximum intensity. Moisture dominates the MSE spatial variability but temperature contributes in the upper levels near the TC center. While differences in MSE spatial variability between weakening and intensifying TCs are less clear, raw MSE tends to be greater in intensifying TCs at most radii and vertical levels.

WRF-ROMS-SWAN Coupled Model Simulation Study: Effect of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling on Sea Level Predictions Under Tropical Cyclone and Northeast Monsoon Conditions in Hong Kong

WRF-ROMS-SWAN Coupled Model Simulation Study: Effect of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling on Sea Level Predictions Under Tropical Cyclone and Northeast Monsoon Conditions in Hong Kong

A Multi‐Sensor Approach for the Characterization of Tropical Cyclone Induced Swell—Application to TC Larry, 2021

AbstractSea states are likely highly complex and variable under tropical cyclone (TC) conditions. Outrunning the inner core TC vortex, swell systems can radiate in different directions with different wavelengths. Jointly using several sources of wave observations, it is demonstrated that directional properties of wave fields induced by a TC can now be very well recovered. Directional wave information extracted from Sentinel‐1 wave mode and CFOSAT SWIM are combined with Sofar Spotter drifters and NDBC buoy network. Specific filtering is applied to deal with respective limitations of these observation systems. High consistency between the different data sources is generally obtained, to provide evolving directional distributions of radiating swell systems during the whole TC life time. TC wave properties can then trace particular events associated to extended fetch effects, quantifying the asymmetrical directional wavelength distributions, as function of the TC main characteristics evolving with time (intensity, size, translation).