Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed Research Articles

The response of ocean parameters to tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

AbstractThe Bay of Bengal (BoB) exhibits notable seasonal variations in tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), barrier layer thickness (BLT) and sea‐surface temperature (SST). These parameters also undergo profound changes in the presence of tropical cyclones (TCs). The composite structures of these ocean parameters as a function of the season of TC formation, intensity, and translation speed are unknown and are developed in the present study. Composite structures are examined based on 1,222 instantaneous samples from 83 TCs during 2003–2016 using INCOIS‐GODAS analyses. A BLT of 10–30 m and TCHP of 40–80 kJ/cm2 favours TC intensification in the central BoB. The multivariate regression of BLT and TCHP appears to be better for TC intensity up to 64 knots and is highly underestimated for the stronger TCs (>64 knots). The TC right‐rear sector experiences significant changes in TCHP anomaly (TCHPA) as the intensity increases. The TCHPA ranges ∼10–15, ∼20–25 and ∼25–30 kJ/cm2 when a TC is at Cyclone Storm (CS), Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) and Very SCS (VSCS) stages respectively. The maximum TCHPA is generally aligned along the TC track during the post‐monsoon season. Slow‐moving TCs produce maximum TCHPA cooling of ∼20 kJ/cm2 within 250 km storm radius in the rear sector, while it is less and away from the storm centre for normal and fast‐movers. The seasonal changes showed opposite relations between BLT and TCHP from pre‐ to post‐monsoon seasons during the TC intensification. TC‐induced SST cooling is maximum (∼0.5–1.2 °C) in the inner core for the strong (VSCS and above) and slow‐moving TCs. The cooling decreases with an increase in the translation speed and is more pronounced in the pre‐monsoon season. This study provides a baseline to verify and understand the limitations of the models, and also develop a climatological perspective of BoB TCs.

An Observational Analysis of Ocean Surface Waves in Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Ocean

AbstractKnowledge of ocean surface waves in tropical cyclones (TCs) is necessary to calculate air‐sea exchanges of momentum and enthalpy for improved TC predictions. Here we use 24 years (1992–2015) of TC and significant wave height (SWH) observations in the western North Pacific to analyze storm‐following waves within the TC. The SWH was composited according to the TC translation speed, Uh, and TC intensity based on Vm, the maximum 10‐m wind speed. The results show that SWH is largely symmetrical for slow‐moving TCs when Uh is less than 3 m/s and is asymmetric for faster‐moving storms with larger waves in the right‐front quadrant referenced to the TC heading. For a class of TCs translating at a medium Uh between 3 and 7 m/s, a little less than the waves' group speed, near resonance leads to strong asymmetry with over 50% of waves with SWH exceeding 7–8 m on the right‐front quadrant. As Vm intensifies to 50 m/s and greater, extreme waves develop and become saturated: SWH ≈ 10–11 m, corresponding to when, as shown in previous studies, the momentum exchange coefficient CD levels off while the enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck may increase. Over 80% of the saturated waves then reside in the right‐front quadrant, indicating the quadrant's dominant influence on CD and Ck. The medium‐translating TCs were found to have a greater propensity for intensification than other types of TCs. Our results suggest a link between TC intensity, translation, and wave saturation and asymmetry in the right‐front quadrant.

A Multi-Model Consensus Forecast Technique for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Based on Model Output Calibration

ABSTRACT We analyzed the errors associated with forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from 2010-2012 in the western North Pacific region made by seven operational numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the forecast error is significantly related to the initial error as well as the initial TC intensity, size, and translation speed. Other factors highly related to the forecast error include the environmental sea surface pressure, vertical wind shear and maximum potential intensity. We used stepwise regression to set up model forecast error estimation equations, which were used to calibrate the model output. Independent experiments showed that the calibrated model forecasts have significant skill compared to the original model output. Finally, a multimodel consensus forecast technique for TC intensity was developed based on the calibrated model output; this technique has 28% (15-20%) skill at 12 h (24-72 h) compared to the climatology and persistence forecasts of TC intensity. This consensus technique has greater skill than the consensus forecast based on the original model output and therefore it has the potential to be applied in operation.

A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed.

As the Earth's atmosphere warms, the atmospheric circulation changes. These changes vary by region and time of year, but there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation1-8. Because tropical cyclones are carried along within their ambient environmental wind, there is a plausible a priori expectation that the translation speed of tropical cyclones has slowed with warming. In addition to circulation changes, anthropogenic warming causes increases in atmospheric water-vapour capacity, which are generally expected to increase precipitation rates 9 . Rain rates near the centres of tropical cyclones are also expected to increase with increasing global temperatures10-12. The amount of tropical-cyclone-related rainfall that any given local area will experience is proportional to the rain rates and inversely proportional to the translation speeds of tropical cyclones. Here I show that tropical-cyclone translation speed has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949-2016, which is very likely to have compounded, and possibly dominated, any increases in local rainfall totals that may have occurred as a result of increased tropical-cyclone rain rates. The magnitude of the slowdown varies substantially by region and by latitude, but is generally consistent with expected changes in atmospheric circulation forced by anthropogenic emissions. Of particular importance is the slowdown of 30 per cent and 20 per cent over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, respectively, and the slowdown of 19 per cent over land areas in the Australian region. The unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the 'stall' of Hurricane Harvey13-15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed. Any systematic past or future change in the translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over land, is therefore highly relevant when considering potential changes in local rainfall totals.

Parameterizing sea surface temperature cooling induced by tropical cyclones using a multivariate linear regression model

Combining a linear regression and a temperature budget formula, a multivariate regression model is proposed to parameterize and estimate sea surface temperature (SST) cooling induced by tropical cyclones (TCs). Three major dynamic and thermodynamic processes governing the TC-induced SST cooling (SSTC), vertical mixing, upwelling and heat flux, are parameterized empirically using a combination of multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables: sea surface height (SSH), wind speed, wind curl, TC translation speed and surface net heat flux. The regression model fits reasonably well with 10-year statistical observations/reanalysis data obtained from 100 selected TCs in the northwestern Pacific during 2001–2010, with an averaged fitting error of 0.07 and a mean absolute error of 0.72°C between diagnostic and observed SST cooling. The results reveal that the vertical mixing is overall the pre dominant process producing ocean SST cooling, accounting for 55% of the total cooling. The upwelling accounts for 18% of the total cooling and its maximum occurs near the TC center, associated with TC-induced Ekman pumping. The surface heat flux accounts for 26% of the total cooling, and its contribution increases towards the tropics and the continental shelf. The ocean thermal structures, represented by the SSH in the regression model, plays an important role in modulating the SST cooling pattern. The concept of the regression model can be applicable in TC weather prediction models to improve SST parameterization schemes.

Characterizing the Variations of the motion of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones

In this study, we examine the seasonal and interannual variability of the North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclone (TC) motion from the historical Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) over the period 1988–2014. We characterize these motions based on their position, lifecycle, and seasonal cycle. The main findings of this study include: (1) of the 11,469 NATL TC fixes examined between 1988 and 2014, 81% of them had a translation speed of 40 mph) are exclusively found north of 30 N, the slow-moving TCs have a wide range of latitude. This is largely a consequence of the background steering flow being weaker (stronger) in the tropical (higher) latitudes with a minimum around the subtropical latitudes of NATL; (3) there is an overall decrease in the frequency of all categories of translation speed of TCs in warm relative to cold El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. However, in terms of the percentage change, TCs with a translation speed in the range of 10–20 mph display the most change (42%) in warm relative to cold ENSO years; and (4) there is an overall decrease in frequency across all categories of TC translation speed in small relative to large Atlantic Warm Pool years, but in terms of percentage change in the frequency of TCs, there is a significant and comparable change in the frequency over a wider range of translation speeds than the ENSO composites. This last finding suggests that Atlantic Warm Pool variations have a more profound impact on the translation speed of Atlantic TCs than ENSO.

Observed strong currents under global tropical cyclones

Global data from drifters of the Surface Velocity Program (Niiler, 2001) and tropical cyclones (TCs) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center were analyzed to demonstrate strong ocean currents and their characteristics under various storm intensities in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Mean TC's translation speed (Uh) is faster in the NH (~4.7ms−1) than in the SH (~4.0ms−1), owing to the fact that TCs are more intense in the NH than in the SH. The rightward (leftward) bias of ocean mixed-layer (OML) velocity occurs in the NH (SH). As a result of this slower Uh and thus a smaller Froude number in the SH, the flow patterns in the SH under the same intensity levels of TCs are more symmetric relative to the TC center and the OML velocities are stronger. This study provides the first characterization of the near-surface OML velocity response to all recorded TCs in the SH from direct velocity measurements.

Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evaluated through 5-yr Forecasts with a Convection-Permitting Regional-Scale Model in the Atlantic Basin

Abstract The practical predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in terms of mean absolute forecast error with respect to different conditions at forecast initialization was explored through convection-permitting hindcasts of all Atlantic storms during the 2008–12 hurricane seasons using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Averaged over a total of 2190 simulations, the day 1–5 performance of these WRF hindcasts was comparable to two operational regional-scale hurricane prediction models used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) but was slightly inferior to the NHC official forecasts. It was found that the prediction accuracy of TC intensity, both at the initialization time and the targeted forecast hours, was strongly correlated with the TC intensity. On average, for both the WRF hindcasts and the NHC official forecasts, stronger intensities and larger intensity variations led to larger forecast errors. A number of synoptic-scale environmental parameters, such as vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST), and the underlying surface condition (land vs sea), affected the intensity forecast errors of TCs, in part due to their influence on intensity changes, while other thermodynamic environmental parameters, such as moisture and instability, had relatively minor effects. The accuracy of the intensity prediction was also found to be sensitive to the translation speed of the TCs. A moderate TC translation speed of 11–15 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) corresponded to the largest intensity errors during forecast lead times less than 60 h, while the slowest translation speed (<7 kt) was associated with the largest errors after the 60-h forecast lead time.

Spatial and Temporal Characterization of Sea Surface Temperature Response to Tropical Cyclones*

Abstract The spatial structure and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (SSTA) associated with the passage of tropical cyclones (TCs), as well as their sensitivity to TC characteristics (including TC intensity and translation speed) and oceanic climatological conditions (represented here by latitude), are thoroughly examined by means of composite analysis using satellite-derived SST data. The magnitude of the TC-generated SSTA is larger for more intense, slower-moving, and higher-latitude TCs, and it occurs earlier in time for faster-moving and higher-latitude storms. The location of maximum SSTA is farther off the TC track for faster-moving storms, and it moves toward the track with time after the TC passage. The spatial extension of the cold wake is greater for more intense and for slower-moving storms, but its shape is quite independent of TC characteristics. Consistent with previous studies, the calculations show that the mean SSTA over a TC-centered box nearly linearly correlates with the wind speed for TCs below category 3 intensity while for stronger TCs the SSTA levels off, both for tropical and subtropical regions. While the linear behavior is expected on the basis of the more vigorous mixing induced by stronger winds and is derived from a simple mixed-layer model, the level-off for intense TCs is discussed in terms of the dependence of the maximum amplitude of the area-mean SSTA on TC translation speed and depth of the prestorm mixed layer. Finally, the decay time scale of the TC-induced SSTA is shown to be dominated by environmental conditions and has no clear dependence on its initial magnitude and on TC characteristics.

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996 to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s−1 are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions, potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in FOR.

On the extreme rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009)

[1] Typhoon Morakot (2009), a devastating tropical cyclone (TC) that made landfall in Taiwan from 7 to 9 August 2009, produced the highest recorded rainfall in southern Taiwan in the past 50 years. This study examines the factors that contributed to the heavy rainfall. It is found that the amount of rainfall in Taiwan was nearly proportional to the reciprocal of TC translation speed rather than the TC intensity. Morakot's landfall on Taiwan occurred concurrently with the cyclonic phase of the intraseasonal oscillation, which enhanced the background southwesterly monsoonal flow. The extreme rainfall was caused by the very slow movement of Morakot both in the landfall and in the postlandfall periods and the continuous formation of mesoscale convection with the moisture supply from the southwesterly flow. A composite study of 19 TCs with similar track to Morakot shows that the uniquely slow translation speed of Morakot was closely related to the northwestward-extending Pacific subtropical high (PSH) and the broad low-pressure systems (associated with Typhoon Etau and Typhoon Goni) surrounding Morakot. Specifically, it was caused by the weakening steering flow at high levels that primarily resulted from the weakening PSH, an approaching short-wave trough, and the northwestward-tilting Etau. After TC landfall, the circulation of Goni merged with the southwesterly flow, resulting in a moisture conveyer belt that transported moisture-laden air toward the east-northeast. Significant mesoscale convection occurred on a long-lived east-west-oriented convergence line and on the mountain slope in southern Taiwan. This convective line was associated with large low-level moisture flux convergence caused by the northwesterly circulation of Morakot and the southwesterly flow. It is thus suggested that the long duration of Typhoon Morakot in the Taiwan area, the interaction of southwest monsoon and typhoon circulation, the mesoscale convection, and the presence of terrain are the key factors in generating the tremendous rainfall.

Momentum Flux Budget across the Air–Sea Interface under Uniform and Tropical Cyclone Winds

Abstract In coupled ocean–atmosphere models, it is usually assumed that the momentum flux into ocean currents is equal to the flux from air (wind stress). However, when the surface wave field grows (decays) in space or time, it gains (loses) momentum and reduces (increases) the momentum flux into subsurface currents compared to the flux from the wind. In particular, under tropical cyclone (TC) conditions the surface wave field is complex and fast varying in space and time and may significantly affect the momentum flux from wind into ocean. In this paper, numerical experiments are performed to investigate the momentum flux budget across the air–sea interface under both uniform and idealized TC winds. The wave fields are simulated using the WAVEWATCH III model. The difference between the momentum flux from wind and the flux into currents is estimated using an air–sea momentum flux budget model. In many of the experiments, the momentum flux into currents is significantly reduced relative to the flux from the wind. The percentage of this reduction depends on the choice of the drag coefficient parameterization and can be as large as 25%. For the TC cases, the reduction is mainly in the right-rear quadrant of the hurricane, and the percentage of the flux reduction is insensitive to the changes of the storm size and the asymmetry in the wind field but varies with the TC translation speed and the storm intensity. The results of this study suggest that it is important to explicitly resolve the effect of surface waves for accurate estimations of the momentum flux into currents under TCs.

Effects of Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM

Abstract Vertical wind shear and storm motion are two of the most important factors contributing to rainfall asymmetries in tropical cyclones (TCs). Global TC rainfall structure, in terms of azimuthal distribution and asymmetries relative to storm motion, has been previously described using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager rainfall estimates. The mean TC rainfall distribution and the wavenumber-1 asymmetry vary with storm intensity and geographical location among the six oceanic basins. This study uses a similar approach to investigate the relationship between the structure of TC rainfall and the environmental flow by computing the rainfall asymmetry relative to the vertical wind shear. The environmental vertical wind shear is defined as the difference between the mean wind vectors of the 200- and 850-hPa levels over an outer region extending from the radius of 200–800 km around the storm center. The wavenumber-1 maximum rainfall asymmetry is downshear left (right) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. The rainfall asymmetry decreases (increases) with storm intensity (shear strength). The rainfall asymmetry maximum is predominantly downshear left for shear values > 7.5 m s−1. Large asymmetries are usually observed away from the TC centers. As TC intensity increases, the asymmetry maximum shifts upwind to the left. The analysis is further extended to examine the storm motion and the vertical wind shear and their collective effects on TC rainfall asymmetries. It is found that the vertical wind shear is a dominant factor for the rainfall asymmetry when shear is >5 m s−1. The storm motion–relative rainfall asymmetry in the outer rainband region is comparable to that of shear relative when the shear is <5 m s−1, suggesting that TC translation speed becomes an important factor in the low shear environment. The overall TC rainfall asymmetry depends on the juxtaposition and relative magnitude of the storm motion and environmental shear vectors in all oceanic basins.