Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Research Articles

Signatures of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Satellite Measurements of Ice and Liquid Water Content

This study examines how the structure and amount of cloud water content are associated with tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change using the CloudSat Tropical Cyclone (CSTC) dataset. Theoretical and modeling studies have demonstrated the importance of both the magnitude and vertical structure of latent heating in regulating TC intensity. However, the direct observations of the latent heat release and its vertical profile are scarce. The CSTC dataset provides the opportunity to infer the vertical profile of the latent heating from CloudSat retrievals of cloud ice water content (IWC) and liquid water content (LWC). It is found that strengthening storms have ~20% higher IWC than weakening storms, especially in the midtroposphere near the eyewall. These differences in IWC exist up to 24 h prior to an intensity change and are observed for all storm categories except major TCs. A similar analysis of satellite-observed rainfall rates indicates that strengthening storms have slightly higher rainfall rates 6 h prior to intensification. However, the rainfall signal is less robust than what is observed for IWC, and disappears for lead times greater than 6 h. Such precursors of TC intensity change provide observationally based metrics that may be useful in constraining model simulations of TC genesis and intensification.

On the Relationship between Intensity and Rainfall Distribution in Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall over China

AbstractTRMM satellite 3B42 rainfall estimates for 133 landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) over China during 2001–15 are used to examine the relationship between TC intensity and rainfall distribution. The rain rate of each TC is decomposed into axisymmetric and asymmetric components. The results reveal that, on average, axisymmetric rainfall is closely related to TC intensity. Stronger TCs have higher averaged peak axisymmetric rain rates, more averaged total rain, larger averaged rain areas, higher averaged rain rates, higher averaged amplitudes of the axisymmetric rainfall, and lower amplitudes of wavenumbers 1–4 relative to the total rainfall. Among different TC intensity change categories, rapidly decaying TCs show the most rapid decrease in both the total rainfall and the axisymmetric rainfall relative to the total rain. However, the maximum total rain, maximum rain area, and maximum rain rate are not absolutely dependent on TC intensity, suggesting that stronger TCs do not have systematically higher maximum rain rates than weaker storms. Results also show that the translational speed of TCs has little effect on the asymmetric rainfall distribution in landfalling TCs. The maximum rainfall of both the weaker and stronger TCs is generally located downshear to downshear left. However, when environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) is less than 5 m s−1, the asymmetric rainfall maxima are more frequently located upshear and onshore, suggesting that in weak VWS environments the coastline could have a significant effect on the rainfall asymmetry in landfalling TCs.

Water Budget and Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

AbstractThree satellite observational datasets and a reanalysis dataset during the period 2001–09 are used to examine four water budget components (total precipitable water, surface evaporation, precipitation, and column-integrated moisture flux convergence) associated with western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) of different intensity change categories: rapidly intensifying, slowly intensifying, neutral, and weakening. The results show that surface evaporation plays an important role in storm rapid intensification (RI) and the highest evaporation associated with rapidly intensifying TCs is associated with the highest sea surface temperature. Total precipitable water in the outer environment, where moisture is mainly provided by surface evaporation, is also vital to storm RI because RI is favored when there is less dry air intruded into the storm circulation. The roles of surface evaporation and total precipitable water in storm RI are related to the enhanced convective available potential energy by moistening and warming the boundary layer. The largest amount of column-integrated moisture flux convergence associated with weakening TCs, which results in the heaviest precipitation, is because their strongest mean intensity promotes moisture transport. It is suggested that different water budget components play different roles in TC intensity change. The results agree with the notion that TC intensity change results from a competition between surface moisture and heat fluxes and low-entropy downdrafts into the boundary layer.

Relationships between total lightning, deep convection, and tropical cyclone intensity change

AbstractThis study investigates the characteristics of total lightning in the inner core (INCO, 0–100 km) and outer rainband (OB, 200–400 km) of tropical cyclones (TC). Relationships between flash density (FLD), convective intensity, and TC intensity change are further examined. FLD shows a bimodal structure with a strong maximum in the eyewall (INCO, 0–50 km) and a secondary maximum in the OB. FLD maximizes under conditions of warmest sea surface temperature (SST) and large values of vertical wind shear. Compared to OB FLD, INCO FLD is less sensitive to SST increase but shows greater variability in relation to shear. Intensifying TCs have substantially lower INCO (but higher OB) FLD compared to weakening and neutral TCs. Similar trends are shown in radar quantities (volume of 30 dBZ echoes in the mixed phase). rapidly intensifying (RI) TCs also show significantly smaller FLD and VOL30 than slowly intensifying TCs, indicating the potential of these parameters in forecasting RI. INCO (OB) FLD decreases (increases) 12–18 h preceding the onset of RI, while INCO (OB) FLD increases (decreases) 6–12 h prior to TC weakening. These relationships between lightning and TC intensity change (+24 h) are generally maintained regardless of prior (−24 h) TC intensity change status. However, convective depth and vertically integrated ice content in the INCO increased preceding TC intensification, suggesting the lack of supercooled liquid content and establishment of glaciated conditions (evident by an increase in the 20 dBZ and decrease in the 30 dBZ echo volume) in the INCO of intensifying TCs, especially RI.

A Statistical Investigation of the Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change on the Surrounding Environment

A progression of advanced statistical methods is applied to investigate the dependence of the 6-h tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change on various environmental variables, including the recently developed ventilation index (VI). The North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) observations from 1979 to 2014 are used. As a first step, a model of the intensity change is developed as a linear function of 13 variables used in operational models, obtaining statistical R2 values of 0.26 for NA and 0.3 for WNP. Statistical variable selection techniques are then applied to significantly reduce the number of predictors (to 5–11), while keeping similar R2 values with linear or nonlinear models. Further reduction of the number of predictors (to 5–7) and significant improvement of R2 (0.41–0.53) are obtained with mixture modeling, indicating that the dependence of TC intensification on the environment is nonhomogeneous. Applying VI as the environmental predictor in the mixture modeling gives R2 results (0.41–0.74) similar to or better than those with more environmental variables, confirming that VI is a dominant environmental variable, although its effect on TC intensification is quite heterogeneous. However, the overall predictive R2 results of the mixture models are relatively low (<0.3), as the considered environmental variables have limited predictability for the occurrence of extreme/rapid intensification. Finally, nonparametric regression with six predictors [current intensity, previous intensity change, the three components of VI (maximum potential intensity, shear, and entropy deficit), and 200-hPa zonal wind] performs relatively well with predictive R2 values of 0.37 for NA and 0.36 for WNP. The predictability of these statistical models may be further improved by adding oceanic and inner-core process predictors.

Observations of Infrared Sea Surface Temperature and Air–Sea Interaction in Hurricane Edouard (2014) Using GPS Dropsondes

AbstractThis study highlights infrared sensor technology incorporated into the global positioning system (GPS) dropsonde platforms to obtain sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. This modified sonde (IRsonde) is used to improve understanding of air–sea interaction in tropical cyclones (TCs). As part of the Sandy Supplemental Program, IRsondes were constructed and then deployed during the 2014 hurricane season. Comparisons between SSTs measured by collocated IRsondes and ocean expendables show good agreement, especially in regions with no rain contamination. Surface fluxes were estimated using measurements from the IRsondes and AXBTs via a bulk method that requires measurements of SST and near-surface (10 m) wind speed, temperature, and humidity. The evolution of surface fluxes and their role in the intensification and weakening of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are discussed in the context of boundary layer recovery. The study’s result emphasizes the important role of surface flux–induced boundary layer recovery in regulating the low-level thermodynamic structure that is tied to the asymmetry of convection and TC intensity change.

More intensive summer tropical cyclone near 30°N of East Asia

The present study revealed that a climate regime shift occurred during the 1988–1991 period involving changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity (central pressure, maximum sustained wind speed) during the summer near 30°N in East Asia. Climatologically, TC intensity at 110°–125°E near 30°N (over Mainland China) is the weakest at that latitude while the strongest is found at 125°–130°E (over Korea). The TC intensity during the 1991–2015 (91–15) period had strengthened significantly compared to that of the 1965–1988 (65–88) period. The strengthening was due to a significantly lower frequency of TCs that passed through Mainland China during the 91–15 period. This lower frequency of was due to anomalous northeasterlies blown from the anomalous anticyclonic circulation located over continental East Asia and that had strengthened along the coast. Instead, TCs mainly followed a path from eastern regions in the subtropical western North Pacific to Korea and Japan via the East China Sea due to anomalous cyclonic circulations that had strengthened in the western North Pacific. In addition, low vertical wind shear had formed along the mid-latitude region in East Asia and along the main TC track in the 91–15 period, and most regions in the western North Pacific experienced a higher sea surface temperature state during the 91–15 period than in the previous period, indicating that a favorable environment had formed to maintain strong intensities of TCs at the mid–latitudes. The characteristics of TCs at the lower latitudes caused a strong TC intensity at the time of landfall in Korea and a gradual shifting trend of landing location from the western to southern coast in recent years.

Climatological Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

Abstract Although infrequent, tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify under moderate vertical wind shear (VWS). A potential hypothesis is that other factors—associated with both the TC and its environment—can help offset the effects of VWS and aid intensification. This hypothesis was tested with a large dataset of 6-hourly best tracks and environmental diagnostics for global TCs between 1982 and 2014. Moderate VWS was objectively defined as 4.5–11.0 m s−1, which represents the 25th–75th percentiles of the global distribution of 200–850-hPa VWS magnitude around TCs. Intensifying events (i.e., unique 6-hourly data points) were compared against steady-state events to determine which TC and environmental characteristics favored intensification under moderate VWS. This comparison showed that intensifying events were significantly stronger, closer to the equator, larger, and moving with a more westward motion than steady-state events. Furthermore, intensifying events moved within environments characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures, greater midtropospheric water vapor, and more easterly VWS than steady-state events. Storm-relative, shear-relative composites suggested that the coupling between water vapor, surface latent heat fluxes, and storm-relative flow asymmetries was conducive for less dry air intrusions and more symmetric rainfall in intensifying events. Last, the comparison showed no systematic differences between environmental wind profiles possibly due to the large temporal variability of VWS.

Impact of Parameterized Boundary Layer Structure on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasts in HWRF

Abstract This study evaluates the impact of the modification of the vertical eddy diffusivity (Km) in the boundary layer parameterization of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). Composites of HWRF forecasts of Hurricanes Earl (2010) and Karl (2010) were compared for two versions of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in HWRF. The results show that using a smaller value of Km, in better agreement with observations, improves RI forecasts. The composite-mean, inner-core structures for the two sets of runs at the time of RI onset are compared with observational, theoretical, and modeling studies of RI to determine why the runs with reduced Km are more likely to undergo RI. It is found that the forecasts with reduced Km at the RI onset have a shallower boundary layer with stronger inflow, more unstable near-surface air outside the eyewall, stronger and deeper updrafts in regions farther inward from the radius of maximum wind (RMW), and stronger boundary layer convergence closer to the storm center, although the mean storm intensity (as measured by the 10-m winds) is similar for the two groups. Finally, it is found that the departure of the maximum tangential wind from the gradient wind at the eyewall, and the inward advection of angular momentum outside the eyewall, is much larger in the forecasts with reduced Km. This study emphasizes the important role of the boundary layer structure and dynamics in TC intensity change, supporting recent studies emphasizing boundary layer spinup mechanism, and recommends further improvement to the HWRF PBL physics.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change and Axisymmetricity Deduced from GSMaP

The relationship of tropical cyclone (TC) future intensity change to current intensity and current axisymmetricity deduced from hourly Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data was investigated. Axisymmetricity is a metric that correlates positively with the magnitude of the axisymmetric component of the rainfall rate and negatively with the magnitude of the asymmetric component. The samples used were all of the TCs that existed in the western North Pacific basin during the years 2000–15. The results showed that, during the development stage, the intensification rate at the current time, and 6 and 12 h after the current time was strongly related to both the current intensity and axisymmetricity. On average, the higher the axisymmetricity, the larger the intensity change in the next 24 h for TCs with a current central pressure (maximum sustained wind) between 945 and 995 hPa (85 and 40 kt). The mean value of the axisymmetricity for TCs experiencing rapid intensification (RI) was much higher than that for non-RI TCs for current intensities of 960–990 hPa. The new observational evidence for the intensification process presented here is consistent with the findings of previous theoretical studies emphasizing the role of the axisymmetric component of diabatic heating.

Dynamics and predictability of secondary eyewall formation in sheared tropical cyclones

AbstractThis study examines the predictability and dynamics of tropical cyclone (TC) secondary eyewall formation (SEF), eyewall replacement cycles (ERC), and intensity changes under moderate environmental shear through convection‐permitting ensemble simulations. Even with the same environmental shear, the TC intensity changes during formation, rapid intensification, and SEF/ERC can be extremely sensitive to small, unobservable, random initial condition uncertainties, or computer's truncation error due to the chaotic nature of moist convection. Through composite analysis of five ensemble members with similar clear SEF/ERC and diagnostics with a nonlinear boundary layer (BL) model, we identify several key factors in the SEF/ERC process: (1) fast expansion of outer wind fields and changing inertial stability through shear‐induced peripheral convection outside of the primary eyewall, (2) downward building and axisymmetrization of the primary (outer) rainband due to enhanced inertial stability and positive feedback between BL and outer convection, (3) establishment of the secondary eyewall along with moat formation that is facilitated by compensating subsidence from the primary eyewall, and (4) weakening and eventual replacement of the original primary eyewall by the strengthening secondary eyewall. It is also seen from the partial ERC cases that the preexisting rainband can be of great importance to the later development of SEF. Diagnosis with the nonlinear BL model shows that the location and relative strengths of the diagnosed frictional updrafts closely match those in the ensemble simulation of the ERC case, suggesting that the boundary layer convergence substantially influences the location of the convection in both eyewalls there.

AIRS-observed warm core structures of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature profiles during the period 2003–2013 are used to examine the warm core structures and evolution characteristics associated with the formation and development of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs). The warm core with a steady 1.5-K warming in the layer of 500–300hPa occurs 24h prior to tropical storm formation. Apparent eye warming extends upward to upper troposphere and downward to near surface after tropical storm formation. TC intensity shows a robust positive correlation with the warm core strength and has a weaker but still significant positive correlation with the warm core height (the weaker correlation is primarily attributed to the scattered warm core heights of weak TCs). Future 24-h intensity change of TCs has little correlation with the warm core height while it has a significant negative correlation with the warm core strength. Weak to moderate warm core at 500–200hPa may be a necessary but not sufficient initial condition for TC rapid intensification. AIRS-observed warm core structures, in combination with other environmental factors, have the potential to improve the prediction of tropical storm formation and rapid intensification of WNP TCs.

A Statistical Perspective on Wind Profiles and Vertical Wind Shear in Tropical Cyclone Environments of the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract A statistical analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) environmental wind profiles is conducted in order to better understand how vertical wind shear influences TC intensity change. The wind profiles are computed from global atmospheric reanalyses around the best track locations of 7554 TC cases in the Northern Hemisphere tropics. Mean wind profiles within each basin exhibit significant differences in the magnitude and direction of vertical wind shear. Comparisons between TC environments and randomly selected “non-TC” environments highlight the synoptic regimes that support TCs in each basin, which are often characterized by weaker deep-layer shear. Because weaker deep-layer shear may not be the only aspect of the environmental flow that makes a TC environment more favorable for TCs, two new parameters are developed to describe the height and depth of vertical shear. Distributions of these parameters indicate that, in both TC and non-TC environments, vertical shear most frequently occurs in shallow layers and in the upper troposphere. Linear correlations between each shear parameter and TC intensity change show that shallow, upper-level shear is slightly more favorable for TC intensification. But these relationships vary by basin and neither parameter independently explains more than 5% of the variance in TC intensity change between 12 and 120 h. As such, the shear height and depth parameters in this study do not appear to be viable predictors for statistical intensity prediction, though similar measures of midtropospheric vertical wind shear may be more important in particularly challenging intensity forecasts.

Tropical Cyclone Outflow-Layer Structure and Balanced Response to Eddy Forcings

Abstract The ERA-Interim is used to generate azimuthally averaged composites of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from 1979 to 2014. Both the mean state and the eddy forcing terms exhibited similar radial–vertical structure for all storm intensities, varying only in magnitude. Thus, only major hurricanes are described in detail. Radial inflow and outflow extended beyond the 2000-km radius. Warm anomalies reached 2000 km in the outflow layer. Composite eddy momentum fluxes within the outflow layer were 2.5 times larger than mean momentum fluxes, highlighting the importance of outflow–environment interactions. A balanced vortex equation was applied to understand the role of eddy heat and momentum fluxes. Dominant terms were the lateral eddy heat flux convergence, lateral eddy momentum flux, and eddy Coriolis torque. Each acted to enhance the secondary circulation. The eddy momentum flux terms produced about twice the response of heat flux terms. The circulation created by the eddy Coriolis torque arises from a vertical gradient of mean storm-relative meridional wind in the upper troposphere at outer radii. It is produced by background inertial stability variations that allow stronger outflow on the equatorward side. Overall, the fluxes drive a strengthened secondary circulation that extends to outer radii. Balanced vertical motion is strongest in the upper troposphere in the storm core. A method is proposed for evaluating the role of environmental interaction on tropical cyclone intensity change.

Characteristics of lightning activity in tropical cyclones developed over North Indian Ocean basin during 2010–2015

The characteristics of lightning activity in tropical cyclones (TCs) over North Indian Ocean (NIO) are presented using sample of 21 TCs developed during 2010–2015 using TRMM and World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) datasets along with information from annual reports of Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC), New Delhi. The microphysical features such as Polarization Corrected Brightness Temperature (PCT), attenuation corrected reflectivity factor, Ice Water Path (IWP) play a pivotal role in development of convective systems within TCs. The TCs exhibited systematic variation in lightning flashes per day within 300km of estimated center during their life cycle irrespective of their severity and flash rate within 300km of storm center. The lightning flashes ranged from 1 to 3500 flashes per day during pre-cyclone stage, 100 to 8000 flashes per day during cyclone stage and 0 to 4300 flashes per day during post-cyclone stage. The TCs produced maximum flash density in eyewall region (20–40km) and outer rainband region (200–260km). The WWLLN recorded 165,512 flashes within 300km of TC centers during their life cycle. The maximum flashes occurred during cyclone stage followed by pre-cyclone and post-cyclone. The time variation of flash rate for all cyclones was episodic and primarily peaked during late night and early morning hours. The diurnal variation of lightning flashes during TCs due to variation in detection efficiency of WWLLN also controls temporal distribution of lightning activity. During rapid intensification, TCs produced profuse lightning flashes per hour. Episodic lightning flashes per hour occurred during weakening stage and prior to landfall. It is evident that outbreaks of lightning flashes prior to maximum intensity change as manifested in maximum sustained wind speed and fall in estimated central pressure (ECP) indicate potential predictive value of lightning activity for TC intensity change.

Changes in tropical cyclone intensity with translation speed and mixed‐layer depth: idealized WRF‐ROMS coupled model simulations

In this study, two components of a coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport modelling system, the atmosphere model Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) and the ocean model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), are used to investigate the relationships between tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes and ocean mixed‐layer depth (MLD) as well as translation speed through a series of idealized experiments. The coupled WRF‐ROMS model can well simulate TC intensity changes and sea‐surface temperature (SST) cooling induced by the TCs under different ocean MLD and background flow conditions. Surface enthalpy flux is reduced due to the SST decrease, which subsequently inhibits TC development. A smaller MLD and a slower speed produce a more symmetric cold wake under the TC inner core, which can effectively weaken the TC. The SST has a nonlinear decrease with increasing translation speed under the same MLD condition. A heat budget analysis supports that upwelling plays a more important role in changing the temperature within the upper ocean when the TC moves slowly (e.g. 1 m s−1). However, upwelling only dominates the subsurface temperature changes when the translation speed increases so that a smaller SST cooling occurs. A translation speed of 3 m s−1 is found to be the optimal speed for TC development when the MLD is thick enough (50 and 100 m in this study). A larger basic flow (>3 m s−1) produces a stronger asymmetry in the vertical velocity and results in a weaker secondary circulation, and hence inhibits TC intensification. For a shallow MLD of 20 m, a 5 m s−1 translation speed can mitigate more cooling effect and make it more favourable for TC maintenance. This result suggests the competing effects of atmospheric and oceanic conditions in determining TC intensity.

Revisiting trough interactions and tropical cyclone intensity change

AbstractAn updated climatology of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in the presence of upper tropospheric trough forcing is presented. To control for changes in the background thermodynamic environment, a methodology that normalizes intensity change by the potential intensity of the TC is used to more narrowly focus on the effect of troughs compared to previous studies. Relative to the full sample of Atlantic TCs, troughs are a negative influence on intensification: trough interaction cases are 4% less likely to intensify and 5% more likely to weaken. Troughs are especially detrimental compared to TCs without trough forcing: trough interaction cases are 14% less likely to intensify and 13% more likely to weaken. Additionally, eddy flux convergence of angular momentum, previously shown to positively affect TC intensity change, is shown to be a weak predictor of intensity change compared to vertical wind shear, which is enhanced during a trough interaction.

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Upper-Tropospheric Cold Low and Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Change over the Western North Pacific

The geographical and temporal characteristics of upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) and their relationship to tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity change over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 2000–12 are examined using the TC best track and global meteorological reanalysis data. An analysis of the two datasets shows that 73% of 346 TCs coexist with 345 UTCLs, and 21% of the latter coexist with TCs within an initial cutoff distance of 15°. By selecting those coexisted systems within this distance, the possible influences of UTCL on TC track and intensity change are found, depending on their relative distance and on the sectors of UTCLs where TCs are located. Results show that the impact of UTCLs on TC directional changes are statistically insignificant when averaged within the 15° radius. However, left-turning TCs within 5° distance from the UTCL center exhibit large deviated directional changes from the WNP climatology, due to the presence of highly frequent abrupt left turnings in the eastern semicircle of UTCL. The abrupt turnings of TCs are often accompanied by their slow-down movements. Results also show that TCs seem more (less) prone to intensify at early (late) development stages when interacting with UTCLs compared to the WNP climatology. Intensifying (weakening) TCs are more distributed in the southern (northern) sectors of UTCLs, with less hostile conditions for weakening within 9°–13° radial range. In addition, rapid intensifying TCs take place in the south-southwest and east-southeast sectors of UTCLs, whereas rapid weakening cases appear in the western semicircle of UTCLs due to their frequent proximity to mainland coastal regions.

On the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensification under Upper-Level Trough Forcing

Abstract This study is part of the efforts undertaken to resolve the “bad trough/good trough” issue for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes and to improve the prediction of these challenging events. Sensitivity experiments are run at 8-km resolution with vortex bogusing to extend the previous analysis of a real case of TC–trough interaction (Dora in 2007). The initial position and intensity of the TC are modified, leaving the trough unchanged to describe a realistic environment. Simulations are designed to analyze the sensitivity of TC prediction to both the variety of TC–trough configurations and the current uncertainty in model analysis of TC intensity and position. Results show that TC intensification under upper-level forcing is greater for stronger vortices. The timing and geometry of the interaction between the two cyclonic potential vorticity anomalies associated with the cutoff low and the TC also play a major role in storm intensification. The intensification rate increases when the TC (initially located 12° northwest of the trough) is displaced 1° closer. By allowing a gradual deformation and equatorward tilting of the trough, both scenarios foster an extended “inflow channel” of cyclonic vorticity at midlevels toward the vortex inner core. Conversely, unfavorable interaction is found for vortices displaced 3° or 4° east or northeast. Variations in environmental forcing relative to the reference simulation illustrate that the relationship between intensity change and the 850–200-hPa wind shear is not systematic and that the 200-hPa divergence, 335–350-K mean potential vorticity, or 200-hPa relative eddy momentum fluxes may be better predictors of TC intensification during TC–trough interactions.

Lightning activity and its relationship with typhoon intensity and vertical wind shear for Super Typhoon Haiyan (1330)

Super Typhoon Haiyan (1330), which occurred in 2013, is the most powerful typhoon during landfall in the meteorological record. In this study, the temporal and spatial distributions of lightning activity of Haiyan were analyzed by using the lightning data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network, typhoon intensity and position data from the China Meteorological Administration, and horizontal wind data from the ECMWF. Three distinct regions were identified in the spatial distribution of daily average lightning density, with the maxima in the inner core and the minima in the inner rainband. The lightning density in the intensifying stage of Haiyan was greater than that in its weakening stage. During the time when the typhoon intensity measured with maximum sustained wind speed was between 32.7 and 41.4 ms−1, the storm had the largest lightning density in the inner core, compared with other intensity stages. In contrast to earlier typhoon studies, the eyewall lightning burst out three times. The first two eyewall lightning outbreaks occurred during the period of rapid intensification and before the maximum intensity of the storm, suggesting that the eyewall lightning activity could be used to identify the change in tropical cyclone intensity. The flashes frequently occurred in the inner core, and in the outer rainbands with the black body temperature below 220 K. Combined with the ECMWF wind data, the influences of vertical wind shear (VWS) on the azimuthal distribution of flashes were also analyzed, showing that strong VWS produced downshear left asymmetry of lightning activity in the inner core and downshear right asymmetry in the rainbands.