Tropical Cyclone Development Research Articles

The Role of Near-Core Convective and Stratiform Heating/Cooling in Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity

The effects of convective and stratiform diabatic processes in the near-core region on tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity change are examined by artificially modifying the convective and stratiform heating/cooling between 40- and 80-km radii. Sensitivity experiments show that the absence of convective heating in the annulus can weaken TC intensity and decrease the inner-core size. The increased convective heating generates a thick and polygonal eyewall, while the storm intensifies more gently than that in the control run. The removal of stratiform heating can slow down TC intensification with a moderate intensity, whereas the doubling of stratiform heating has little effect on the TC evolution compared to the control run. The halved stratiform cooling facilitates TC rapid intensification and a compact inner-core structure with the spiral rainbands largely suppressed. With the stratiform cooling doubled, the storm terminates intensification and eventually develops a double-eyewall-like structure accompanied by the significantly outward expansion of the inner-core size. The removal of both stratiform heating and cooling generates the strongest storm with the structure and intensity similar to those in the experiment with stratiform cooling halved. When both stratiform heating and cooling are doubled, the storm first decays rapidly, followed by the vertical connection of the updrafts at mid- to upper levels in the near-core region and at lower levels in the collapsed eyewall, which reinvigorates the eyewall convection but with a large outward slope.

Dependence of tropical cyclone development on coriolis parameter: A theoretical model

A simple theoretical model was formulated to investigate how tropical cyclone (TC) intensification depends on the Coriolis parameter. The theoretical framework includes a two-layer free atmosphere and an Ekman boundary layer at the bottom. The linkage between the free atmosphere and the boundary layer is through the Ekman pumping vertical velocity in proportion to the vorticity at the top of the boundary layer. The closure of this linear system assumes a simple relationship between the free atmosphere diabatic heating and the boundary layer moisture convergence. Under a set of realistic atmospheric parameter values, the model suggests that the most preferred latitude for TC development is around 5° without considering other factors.The theoretical result is confirmed by high-resolution WRF model simulations in a zero-mean flow and a constant SST environment on an f −plane with different Coriolis parameters. Given an initially balanced weak vortex, the TC-like vortex intensifies most rapidly at the reference latitude of 5°. Thus, the WRF model simulations confirm the f-dependent characteristics of TC intensification rate as suggested by the theoretical model.

Effect of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on Atmospheric Condition and Distribution of Rainfall in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong Regions

Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has claimed many lives in the Philippines. This super-typhoon cyclone grows in the Western Pacific Ocean, North of Papua. With the area directly contiguous to the trajectory of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone growth, it is necessary to study about the growth activity of this tropical cyclones in Indonesia, especially in 3 different areas, namely Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong. This study was able to determine the impact of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on atmospheric dynamics and rainfall growth distribution based on the stages of tropical cyclone development. The data used in this study include Himawari-8 IR channel satellite data to see the development stage and movement track of Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42RT satellite product to know the rain distribution in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong, and reanalysis data from ECMWF such as wind direction and speed, vertical velocity, and relative vorticity to determine atmospheric conditions at the time of development of the Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone. The results of data analysis processed using GrADS application showed the development stage of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone has effect of changes in atmospheric dynamics condition and wind direction pattern. In addition, tropical cyclones also contribute to very light to moderate scale intensity during the cycle period of tropical cyclone development in all three regions.

Satellite Radiothermovision Analysis of the Evolution of a System of Interacting Typhoons

In this paper we develop further the satellite radiothermovision methods for analyzing the evolution of tropical cyclones. The complicated case of Goni and Atsani interacting typhoons is considered. It has been shown that, although their interaction does not explicitly influence the features of the typhoon trajectories, indications of the formation of complex advective fluxes in the lower troposphere can be revealed from both a qualitative analysis of miscellaneous satellite data and a quantitative estimation of latent heat advection. At the same time, in contrast to the previous works, we had to introduce the integration contours of a complex form (differing from a circular one) into the analysis, so that the energy balance of the typhoon system is correctly described. In a general way, defining such contours is a separate problem whose solution is probably related to the invocation of a large volume of additional satellite information. Due to the peculiarity of the considered case of Goni and Atsani twin typhoons, we demonstrated the effectiveness of a simplified approach that uses a composite contour formed by overlapping two circular ones. Generally, as in the cases previously considered, we found the interrelation between the intensification and dissipation of typhoons (tropical cyclones) and the modes of convergent and divergent advection of latent heat with amplitudes sufficient to support the total power of the system.

A principal component analysis based model to predict post‐monsoon tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal using oceanic Niño index and dipole mode index

ABSTRACTEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) play an important role in determining the weather pattern over the Indian subcontinent region. The role of ENSO and IOD on the occurrence of tropical cyclone activity during post‐monsoon season (October–December) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been investigated through an objective analysis of observed data for the period of 1990–2015. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index is an important measure of tropical cyclone activity over a basin for a defined period of time. Sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (oceanic Niño index) is negatively correlated at 95% confidence level of significance with ACE over the BoB during post‐monsoon season. Positive phase of IOD has negative impact on the tropical cyclone formation over the BoB. The ACE has large inter‐annual variability with coefficient of variation 124% for tropical cyclone activity over BoB during post‐monsoon season. Frequency distribution of annual ACE values for post‐monsoon season over the BoB indicated that cold phases of ENSO along with negative IOD index values are the most favourable for development of tropical cyclone over the BoB. Principal component regression (PCR) model developed by cross‐verification method based on training period data for 1990–2013 and ONI and DMI values of different lag periods as predictors is found to be functional for both deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ACE values of post‐monsoon season. Above‐ and below‐normal TC activities were observed in 2014 and 2015, respectively, which have been well predicted by the PCR model.

Effect of Boundary Layer Roll Vortices on the Development of an Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone

AbstractIn this study, the authors numerically investigate the response of an axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) vortex to the vertical fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture induced by roll vortices (rolls) in the boundary layer. To represent the vertical fluxes induced by rolls, a two-dimensional high-resolution Single-Grid Roll-Resolving Model (SRM) is embedded at multiple horizontal grid points in the mesoscale COAMPS for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model domain. Idealized experiments are conducted with the SRM embedded within 3 times the radius of maximum wind of an axisymmetric TC. The results indicate that the rolls induce changes in the boundary layer wind distribution and cause a moderate (approximately 15%) increase in the TC intensification rate by increasing the boundary layer convergence in the eyewall region and induce more active eyewall convection. The numerical experiments also suggest that the roll-induced tangential momentum flux is most important in contributing to the TC intensification process, and the rolls generated at different radii (within the range considered in this study) all have positive contributions. The results are not qualitatively impacted by the initial TC vortex or the setup of the vertical diffusivity in COAMPS-TC.

Impacts of the Lower Stratosphere on the Development of Intense Tropical Cyclones

This study examines potential impacts of the lower stratosphere on the development and the inner-core structure of intense tropical cyclones (TCs). By initializing the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model with different monthly averaged sounding profiles in the Northwestern Pacific and the North Atlantic basins, it is shown that the lower stratosphere layer (LSL) can impose a noticeable influence on the TC structure and development via formation of an extra warm core near the tropopause along with a thin layer of inflow in the LSL at the high-intensity limit. Specifically, a lower tropopause level allows for higher TC intensity and a more distinct double warm core structure. Likewise, a weaker LSL stratification also corresponds to a warmer upper-level core and higher intensity. Of further significance is that the double warm core formation is more sensitive to tropopause variations in the Northwestern Pacific basin than those in the North Atlantic basin, given the same sea surface temperature. The results suggest that variations in tropopause level and LSL stratification could be an important factor that is responsible for the long-term variability of TC intensity.

On the scale dynamics of the tropical cyclone intensity

This study examines the dynamics of tropical cyclone (TC) development in a TC scale framework. It is shown that this TC-scale dynamics contains the maximum potential intensity (MPI) limit as an asymptotically stable point for which the Coriolis force and the tropospheric stratification are two key parameters responsible for the bifurcation of TC development. In particular, it is found that the Coriolis force breaks the symmetry of the TC development and results in a larger basin of attraction toward the cyclonic (anticyclonic) stable point in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Despite the sensitive dependence of intensity bifurcation on these two parameters, the structurally stable property of the MPI critical point is maintained for a wide range of parameters.

Tropical cyclone fullness: A new concept for interpreting storm intensity

AbstractIntensity and size are two crucial factors in determining the destructiveness of a tropical cyclone (TC), but little is known about the relationship between them because of a lack of observations. TC fullness, a new concept, is proposed to quantitatively measure the storm wind structure, which is defined as the ratio of the extent of the outer‐core wind skirt to the outer‐core size of the TC. TC intensity is more strongly correlated with fullness than with other measures comprising just a single size parameter. A scale is introduced to classify TCs into four categories based on TC fullness (FS1 to FS4). Regardless of the specific inner‐core and outer‐core size, the FS4 fullness structure is necessary for an intense TC's development, while category FS1 and FS2 TCs are generally weak. Most major TCs achieve FS4 fullness structure earlier and more frequently than nonmajor TCs. Rapidly increasing fullness favors the intensification of TC.

Multiday evolution of convective bursts during western North Pacific tropical cyclone development and nondevelopment using geostationary satellite measurements

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) develop through latent heating from a series of deep convection. To investigate the evolution of diurnal convective burst (CB) activities prior to TC formation, we analyzed 463 tropical disturbances that developed (80) or not developed (383) into TCs over the western North Pacific during the 2007–2009 period. Geostationary satellite data allowed defining deep convection where infrared (IR) brightness temperature is lower than that of water vapor (WV). Diurnal expansions from time series of IR minus WV < 0 areas near disturbance vortex centers for 5 days are defined as CB events. Combined analysis with the Modern Era Retrospective‐Analysis shows that the multiday convective‐environmental evolution for TC formation is entirely different from nonformation processes in terms of the occurrence of two consecutive diurnal CB events. Multiday CBs (mCB) are observed in 67.5% of the 80 TC formation cases and in 13.8% of the 383 nonformation cases. Intensities of the middle‐to‐low tropospheric relative vorticity of these two groups are comparable on 4 to 5 days prior to TC formation. However, vorticity intensification is weak for nondeveloping disturbances in environments of strong vertical wind shear; these disturbances eventually decay. The vorticity of developing disturbances continuously intensifies to TC strengths. The remaining 32.5% of the TC cases without mCB show weaker initial vorticity, but rapid intensification over 3 day periods before TC formation. The present results reveal that mCB is a common feature in pre‐TC stages, and large‐scale environments of weak vertical wind shear are critical for the formation of TC‐strength circulations.

Tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: experiments with the high-resolution global icosahedral grid point model GME

In this paper, an attempt has been made to conduct a numerical experiment with the high-resolution global model GME to predict the tropical storms in the North Indian Ocean during the year 2007. Numerical integrations using the icosahedral hexagonal grid point global model GME were performed to study the evolution of tropical cyclones, viz., Akash, Gonu, Yemyin and Sidr over North Indian Ocean during 2007. It has been seen that the GME model forecast underestimates cyclone’s intensity, but the model can capture the evolution of cyclone’s intensity especially its weakening during landfall, which is primarily due to the cutoff of the water vapor supply in the boundary layer as cyclones approach the coastal region. A series of numerical simulation of tropical cyclones have been performed with GME to examine model capability in prediction of intensity and track of the cyclones. The model performance is evaluated by calculating the root mean square errors as cyclone track errors.

Simulated Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Size and Structure to the Atmospheric Temperature Profile

AbstractThis study uses the WRF ARW to investigate how different atmospheric temperature environments impact the size and structure development of a simulated tropical cyclone (TC). In each simulation, the entire vertical virtual temperature profile is either warmed or cooled in 1°C increments from an initial specified state while the initial relative humidity profile and sea surface temperature are held constant. This alters the initial amount of convective available potential energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and air–sea temperature difference such that, when the simulated atmosphere is cooled (warmed), the initial specific humidity and CAPE decrease (increase), but the surface energy fluxes from the ocean increase (decrease).It is found that the TCs that form in an initially cooler environment develop larger wind and precipitation fields with more active outer-core rainband formation. Consistent with previous studies, outer-core rainband formation is associated with high surface energy fluxes, which leads to increases in the outer-core wind field. A larger convective field develops despite initializing in a low CAPE environment, and the dynamics are linked to a wider field of surface radial inflow. As the TC matures and radial inflow expands, large imports of relative angular momentum in the boundary layer continue to drive expansion of the TC’s overall size.

Examining Tropical Cyclone–Kelvin Wave Interactions Using Adjoint Diagnostics

AbstractThe initial-state sensitivity and interactions between a tropical cyclone and atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the DYNAMO field campaign are explored using adjoint-based tools from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The development of Tropical Cyclone 5 (TC05) coincided with the passage of an equatorial Kelvin wave (KW) and westerly wind burst associated with an MJO that developed in the Indian Ocean in late November 2011. COAMPS 18-h adjoint sensitivities of low-level kinetic energy to changes in initial state winds, temperature, and water vapor are analyzed for both TC05 and the KW to document when the evolution of each system is sensitive to the other. Time series of sensitivity patterns confirm that TC05 and the KW low-level westerlies are sensitive to each other when the KW is to the southwest and south of TC05. While TC05 is not sensitive to the KW after this, the KW low-level westerlies remain sensitive to TC05 until it enters the far eastern Indian Ocean. Vertical profiles of both TC05 and KW sensitivity indicate lower-tropospheric maxima in temperature, wind, and moisture, with KW sensitivity typically 20% smaller than TC05 sensitivity. The magnitude of the sensitivity for both systems is greatest just prior to, and during, their closest proximity. A case study examination reveals that adjoint-based optimal perturbations grow and expand quickly through a dynamic response to decreased static stability. The evolution of moist-only and dry-only initial perturbations illustrates that the moist component is primarily responsible for the initial rapid growth, but that subsequent growth rates are similar.

An energetic signature of mutual interaction in a group of tropical cyclones partially collocated in time

During the periods of cyclonic activity, tropical cyclones frequently develop in groups partially coinciding in time. In the “atmosphere–ocean” system, the conditions favoring the development of tropical cyclones are limited. In such setting, a “competition struggle” between tropical cyclones suggesting their possible interrelation is possible. As a result of this study, a regression signature illustrating the energetic impact of a group of tropical cyclones on the development of an individual cyclone in this group has been revealed.

Impact of Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies and Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Evolution Using an Idealized Version of the Operational GFDL Hurricane Model

Abstract The GFDL hurricane modeling system, initiated in the 1970s, has progressed from a research tool to an operational system over four decades. This system is still in use today in research and operations, and its evolution will be briefly described. This study used an idealized version of the 2014 GFDL model to test its sensitivity across a wide range of three environmental factors that are often identified as key factors in tropical cyclone (TC) evolution: SST, atmospheric stability (upper-air thermal anomalies), and vertical wind shear (westerly through easterly). A wide range of minimum central pressure intensities resulted (905–980 hPa). The results confirm that a scenario (e.g., global warming) in which the upper troposphere warms relative to the surface will have less TC intensification than one with a uniform warming with height. The TC rainfall is also investigated for the SST–stability parameter space. Rainfall increases for combinations of SST increase and increasing stability similar to global warming scenarios, consistent with climate change TC downscaling studies with the GFDL model. The forecast system’s sensitivity to vertical shear was also investigated. The idealized model simulations showed weak disturbances dissipating under strong easterly and westerly shear of 10 m s−1. A small bias for greater intensity under easterly sheared versus westerly sheared environments was found at lower values of SST. The impact of vertical shear on intensity was different when a strong vortex was used in the simulations. In this case, none of the initial disturbances weakened, and most intensified to some extent.

Mixture-Based Path Clustering for Synthesis of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Evolution

In this article, three tropical cyclones and their 120-h, 50-member ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble track forecasts at 10 initialization times are considered. The IFS forecast tracks are clustered with a regression mixture model, and two traditional diagnostics (the Bayesian information criterion and a measure of strength of cluster assignment) are used to determine the optimal polynomial order and number of clusters to use in the model. In addition, cross-validation versions of the two diagnostics are formulated and computed to further aid in model selection. Both traditional and cross-validation diagnostics suggest that third-order polynomials and five clusters are effective options—although the evidence is less conclusive for the number of clusters than for the polynomial order, and the cross-validation diagnostics favor a smaller number of clusters than the traditional ones.Path clustering of IFS tropical cyclone track forecasts with this third-order polynomial, five-cluster regression mixture model produces interpretable partitions by direction and speed of motion for each of the storms and initialization times considered. Thus, this approach effectively synthesizes the forecast spreads within the IFS into a small number of representative trajectories. Based on how forecasts distribute across clusters, this approach also provides information on the likelihood of each such representative trajectory. If used operationally, this information has the potential to aid forecasters in parsing and quantifying the uncertainty in tropical cyclone track forecasts.

The effects of moist entropy and moisture budgets on tropical cyclone development

AbstractThis paper examines the moist entropy and moisture budgets in tropical cyclones, as well as their relation to tropical cyclone's development. This analysis focuses on the dropsonde data collected during Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel project and the accompanying satellite data. Two tropical cyclones of interest are Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2013) and Hurricane Edouard (2014). There were three research flights into Gabrielle (2013), during its nondeveloping and decaying stages. Edouard (2014) was visited four times in different stages of its life cycle, twice during the intensification and twice during the decay. Also, we extended our analysis on the larger data set, consisting of 11 nonintensifying and 12 intensifying systems. Our study shows that the moist entropy tends to increase during intensification and decrease during nonintensifying stages. On the other hand, the moisture budget relates better to the tropical cyclone's current intensity than its development. The sign of the moist entropy tendency depends on the ability of surface fluxes and irreversible moist entropy generation to overcome lateral export of moist entropy and loss due to radiative cooling. Edouard's decay during the last research flight was likely the result of increasing wind shear and low sea surface temperatures. During its decay, Gabrielle had strong column‐integrated lateral export of moist entropy and drying between 1 and 4 km height. This is probably the consequence of a dry environment at multiple levels, amplified by a warm and dry anomaly left behind by previous convective activity.

Pathways to the Production of Precipitating Hydrometeors and Tropical Cyclone Development

Abstract Pathways to the production of precipitation in two cloud microphysics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are investigated in a scenario of tropical cyclone intensification. Comparisons of the results from the WRF Model simulations indicate that the variation in the simulated initial rapid intensification of an idealized tropical cyclone is due to the differences between the two cloud microphysics schemes in their representations of pathways to the formation and growth of precipitating hydrometeors. Diagnoses of the source and sink terms of the hydrometeor budget equations indicate that the major differences in the production of hydrometeors between the schemes are in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes, such as accretion growth and sedimentation. These differences lead to different horizontally averaged vertical profiles of net latent heating rate associated with significantly different horizontally averaged vertical distributions and production rates of hydrometeors in the simulated clouds. Results from this study also highlight the possibility that the advantage of double-moment formulations can be overshadowed by the uncertainties in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes.

On the Role of Surface Fluxes and WISHE in Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract The authors show that the feedback between surface wind and surface enthalpy flux is an important influence on tropical cyclone evolution, even though, as with at least some classical instability mechanisms, such a feedback is not strictly necessary. When the wind speed is artificially capped in idealized numerical experiments, storm development is slowed and storms achieve a smaller final intensity. When it is capped in simulations of an actual storm (Hurricane Edouard of 2014), the quality of the simulations is strongly compromised; for example, little development occurs when the wind speed is capped at 5 m s−1, in contrast to the category-3 hurricane shown by observations and produced by the control experiment.

Tropical cyclone evolution in a minimal axisymmetric model revisited

An improved version of a minimal model for a tropical cyclone is described. The model is used to revisit some fundamental aspects of vortex behaviour in the prototype problem for tropical cyclone intensification. After rapidly intensifying to a mature phase in which the maximum tangential wind speed remains quasi‐steady for a few days, the vortex ultimately decays. In a 20‐day simulation, the vortex never becomes globally steady. In particular, the upper anticyclone continues to expand for the duration of the integration. These results are consistent with those of recent studies using more sophisticated numerical models. As in the latter models, an important feature of the dynamics of spin‐up is the development of supergradient winds in the boundary layer and the vertical advection of the associated high tangential‐momentum air from the boundary layer to spin up the eyewall region. This mechanism, while consistent with some recently reported results, is not part of the classical theory of spin‐up.