Multiday evolution of convective bursts during western North Pacific tropical cyclone development and nondevelopment using geostationary satellite measurements

Abstract

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) develop through latent heating from a series of deep convection. To investigate the evolution of diurnal convective burst (CB) activities prior to TC formation, we analyzed 463 tropical disturbances that developed (80) or not developed (383) into TCs over the western North Pacific during the 2007–2009 period. Geostationary satellite data allowed defining deep convection where infrared (IR) brightness temperature is lower than that of water vapor (WV). Diurnal expansions from time series of IR minus WV < 0 areas near disturbance vortex centers for 5 days are defined as CB events. Combined analysis with the Modern Era Retrospective‐Analysis shows that the multiday convective‐environmental evolution for TC formation is entirely different from nonformation processes in terms of the occurrence of two consecutive diurnal CB events. Multiday CBs (mCB) are observed in 67.5% of the 80 TC formation cases and in 13.8% of the 383 nonformation cases. Intensities of the middle‐to‐low tropospheric relative vorticity of these two groups are comparable on 4 to 5 days prior to TC formation. However, vorticity intensification is weak for nondeveloping disturbances in environments of strong vertical wind shear; these disturbances eventually decay. The vorticity of developing disturbances continuously intensifies to TC strengths. The remaining 32.5% of the TC cases without mCB show weaker initial vorticity, but rapid intensification over 3 day periods before TC formation. The present results reveal that mCB is a common feature in pre‐TC stages, and large‐scale environments of weak vertical wind shear are critical for the formation of TC‐strength circulations.