Trends In Traffic Fatalities Research Articles

Traffic Fatality Trends in Seven Developed Countries Since 1970: Assessment, Analysis, and Forecast

Traffic Fatality Trends in Seven Developed Countries Since 1970: Assessment, Analysis, and Forecast

The risks of warm nights and wet days in the context of climate change: assessing road safety outcomes in Boston, USA and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

BackgroundThere remains a dearth of cross-city comparisons on the impact of climate change through extreme temperature and precipitation events on road safety. We examined trends in traffic fatalities, injuries and property damage associated with high temperatures and heavy rains in Boston (USA) and Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic).MethodsOfficial publicly available data on daily traffic outcomes and weather conditions during the warm season (May to September) were used for Boston (2002–2015) and Santo Domingo (2013–2017). Daily maximum temperatures and mean precipitations for each city were considered for classifying hot days, warm days, and warm nights, and wet, very wet, and extremely wet days. Time-series analyses were used to assess the relationship between temperature and precipitation and daily traffic outcomes, using a quasi-Poisson regression.ResultsIn Santo Domingo, the presence of a warm night increased traffic fatalities with a rate ratio (RR) of 1.31 (95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.00,1.71). In Boston, precipitation factors (particularly, extremely wet days) were associated with increments in traffic injuries (RR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.32) and property damages (RR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.51).ConclusionDuring the warm season, mixed associations between weather conditions and traffic outcomes were found across Santo Domingo and Boston. In Boston, increases in heavy precipitation events were associated with higher traffic injuries and property damage. As climate change-related heavy precipitation events are projected to increase in the USA, the associations found in this study should be of interest for road safety planning in a rapidly changing environment.

Investigating traffic fatality trends and restraint use among rear-seat passengers in the United States, 2000–2016

Introduction: Motor-vehicle crash is one of the leading causes of unintentional injury death in the United States. Previous studies focused on fatalities among drivers and front-seat passengers, with a limited number of studies examining rear-seat passenger fatalities. The objectives of this study were to assess trends in rear-seat passenger motor-vehicle fatalities in the United States from 2000 to 2016 and to identify demographic factors associated with being unrestrained among fatally injured rear-seat passengers. Methods: Rear-seat passenger fatality data were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database. The fatality rate ratios for overall rear-seat passengers and for different age and sex groups were determined by comparing fatality rates in 2000 and 2016 using random effects models. Risk ratios of being unrestrained for age and sex groups were obtained using general estimating equations. Results: Compared to 2000, the overall rear-seat passenger fatality rate in 2016 decreased by 44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39–49%). In particular, the fatality rate among rear-seat passengers decreased more in males than females, and passengers aged 14–19 years experienced a larger decline than all other age groups. Fatally injured male rear-seat passengers had a higher risk of being unrestrained (adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.07) than their female counterparts, and both youngest (≤13 years) and oldest (65–85 years) passengers were less likely to be unrestrained than those aged 20–64 years. Conclusions: Overall, fatality rates among rear-seat passengers have declined, with differential degrees of improvement by age and sex. Practical Applications: Continued restraint use enforcement campaigns targeted at teenagers and males would further preserve them from fatal injuries and improve traffic safety for the overall population.

Temporal factors in motor-vehicle crash deaths: Ten years later

ObjectiveTo assess trends in traffic fatalities on several temporal scales: year to year, by month, by day of week, and by time of day, to determine why some times correspond with higher rates of crash deaths, and to assess how these trends relate to age, the role of the deceased, and alcohol consumption. MethodTraffic fatalities were identified using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for 1998 through 2014 and assessed for their time of occurrence. Three days that, on average, contained particularly high numbers of crash deaths were then assessed in greater detail, considering the age of the deceased, role of the deceased (vehicle occupant, bicyclist, motorcyclist, or pedestrian), and the blood alcohol content of either the driver (for passenger vehicle occupants) or the deceased. ResultsAnnual crash fatality totals were much lower in 2014 than in 1998, but the decrease was not steady; a marked drop in crash deaths occurred after 2007 and continued until 2014. On average the most fatalities per day occurred in July and August (116 per day), followed closely by June, September, and October. During the week, the greatest number of fatalities on average occur on weekend days, and during the day the most fatalities tend to occur between the hours of 3p.m. and 7p.m. Holidays like Independence Day and New Year's Day show elevated crash fatalities, and a greater percentage of these crashes involved alcohol, when compared with adjacent days. ConclusionCertain days and times of year stand out as posing an elevated crash risk, and even with the decrease in average daily fatalities over the past decade, these days and times of year have remained consistent. Practical applicationThese results indicate focused areas for continued efforts to reduce fatal crashes.

Potentially Effective Measures to Deal with Elderly Drivers and Additional Measures Involving the Elderly in Japan

Over the past few years, the number of traffic fatalities and the number of individuals injured in traffic accidents in Japan have decreased [1]. From 2006 to 2016, the number of fatalities within 30 days of a traffic accident decreased annually in Japan from 7,336 in 2006 to 4,838 in 2014. However, the number increased slightly to 4,885 in 2015, though it decreased again to 4,698 in 2016. From 2006 to 2016, the number of individuals injured in traffic accidents decreased annually in Japan from 1,098,564 in 2006 to 618,853 in 2016. We previously examined detailed trends in traffic fatalities by age group in Japan, Germany, and France [2]. In the study, individuals ages 25–64 accounted for a large proportion of traffic fatalities in Germany and France, but the elderly age 65 or older accounted for a large proportion of traffic fatalities in Japan. The elderly accounted for 20.2% of Japan’s population in 2005, 23.0% in 2010, and 26.7% in 2015 [3], so the elderly represent a growing proportion of the population.

Trends in traffic fatalities in Mexico: examining progress on the decade of action for road safety 2011-2020.

We explore demographic, temporal and geographic patterns of 256,588 road traffic fatalities from 1998 to 2013 in Mexico, in context of UN´s decade of action for road safety 2010-2020 (DARS). Combined traffic mortality data and population counts were analyzed using mixed-effects logistic regression, distinguishing sex-age groups, vulnerable and protected road users, and municipal size. Rapid growth from 1998 to 2008 in traffic mortality rates has been reversed since 2009. Most deaths averted are among young male protected road users (reduction of 0.95 fatalities per 100,000 per year in males 12-49). In spite of a steady decrease over the full study period, mortality rates remain high in vulnerable road users over 50, with a high mortality rate of 26 per 100,000 males over 75years in 2013. Progress on the reduction of deaths advances in Mexico, in line with DARS targets. National road safety efforts require strengthening. Initiatives should target vulnerable road users, specifically adults>50years in urban areas. Strengthening of drink driving programs aimed at young drivers/occupants is promising.

Progress towards zero, an international comparison: Improvements in traffic fatality from 1990 to 2010 for different age groups in the USA and 15 of its peers

IntroductionIn January 2015, the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) announced that the official target of the federal government transportation safety policy was zero deaths. Having a better understanding of traffic fatality trends of various age cohorts—and to what extent the US is lagging other countries—is a crucial first step to identifying policies that may help the USDOT achieve its goal. MethodIn this paper we analyze fatality rates for different age cohorts in developed countries to better understand how road traffic fatality patterns vary across countries by age cohort. Using benchmarking analysis and comparative index analysis based on panel data modelling and data for selected years between 1990 and 2010, we compare changes in the rate of road traffic fatality over time, as well as the absolute level of road traffic fatality for six age groups in the US, with 15 other developed countries. Results-ConclusionsOur findings illustrate tremendous variations in road fatality rates (both in terms of the absolute values and the rates of improvement over time) among different age cohorts in all of the 16 countries. Looking specifically at the US, our analysis shows that safety improvements for Youngsters (15-17 years old) was much better than for other age groups, and closely tracked peer countries. In sharp contrast, Children (0-14 years old) and Seniors (+65 years old) in the US, fare very poorly when compared to peer countries. For example, in 2010, Children in the US were a stunning five times more likely to experience a road traffic fatality than Children in the UK. Practical ApplicationsThis startling statistic suggests an immediate need to explore further the causes and potential solutions to these disparities. This is especially important if countries, including the US, are to achieve the ambitious goals set out in Zero Vision initiatives.

Relating traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe on the long term

Modeling road safety development can provide important insight into policies for the reduction of traffic fatalities. In order to achieve this goal, both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters, as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed, need to be considered. One of the key relationships in road safety links fatalities with risk and exposure, where exposure reflects the amount of travel, which in turn translates to how much travelers are exposed to risk. In general two economic variables: GDP and unemployment rate are selected to analyse the statistical relationships with some indicators of road accident fatality risk.The objective of this research is to provide an overview of relevant literature on the topic and outline some recent developments in macro-panel data analysis that have resulted in ongoing research that has the potential to improve our ability to forecast traffic fatality trends, especially under turbulent financial situations. For this analysis, time series of the number of fatalities and GDP in 30 European countries for a period of 38 years (1975–2012) are used. This process relies on estimating long-term models (as captured by long term time-series models, which model each country separately). Based on these developments, utilizing state-of-the-art modelling and analysis techniques such as the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator (Pesaran), the long-term elasticity mean value equals 0.63, and is significantly different from zero for 10 countries only. When we take away the countries, where the number of fatalities is stationary, the average elasticity takes a higher value of nearly 1. This shows the strong sensitivity of the estimate of the average elasticity over a panel of European countries and underlines the necessity to be aware of the underlying nature of the time series, to get a suitable regression model.

Traffic fatality trends in four continents based micro level data for three decades

Traffic fatality data for four continents, namely Asia, Africa, Europe and North America, are analysed and modelled here. The analysis is based on gathered traffic death frequencies and rates for over three decades considering 176 countries within the four continents. The predicted values for the coming decade, based on best regression fits, are also analysed. The data sums to over 28,000 records. Official publications, well-known databases, journal papers, official web-sites and personal correspondance were manily employed in collecting the necessary data. While fatlity and vehicular data for the developed countries and few other less developed countries take no time to compile; those for most of the other countries are highly time consuming and distracting, due to the presence of conflicting data, to be processed. It took over three years to gather such data. Such large gathered data for such long period of time are yet not observed in the literature using the common means. Moreover, while future trends of traffic fatalities in Europe and North America are very common and widely presented; that in Asia and Africa are very scarce and lack accuracy due to lack of long-term data. The results indicate that traffic fatalities in Asia and Africa raised from 153 thousands and 46 thousands during 1980 to 384 thousands and 90 thousands deaths during 2011, in respective order; that in Europe and North America dropped from 97 thousands and 57 thousands deaths to 39 thousands and 33 thousands, respectively. It is also intresting to mention that the traffic fatalities in the Arab world sharply increased from 22,145 during 1980 to 37,736 during 2011. It is expected to pass 45 thousands deaths during 2021. The traffic fatalities in the four continents will add up to just 790 thousands considering a flat rate of adjustment factor for underreporting. This however raises serious question regarding underreporting of the official records. Nevertheless, while the roadway deaths in Europe and North America is expected to drop by around 40 and 20%, respectively by the year 2025, according to the models developed here, that in Asia and Africa is expected to increase by around 15 and 70%, respectively. The fatality rates per population followed a very similar pattern, but steeper, of the fatality frequency. There are many contributory factors leading to such high traffic deaths in Asia and Africa. These include, among many other factors, lack of measurable long term safety plans on real ground, inconsistent handling of traffic safety strategies, poor involvement of NGO’s, poor coordination between various stake holders, poor research involvement in the traffic safety crises and limited post-accident rehabilitation centres. Selected

The effects of random breath testing and lowering the minimum legal drinking age on traffic fatalities in Australian states

ObjectiveThis study aims to apply time series analysis techniques to examine the effects of random breath testing (RBT) on three age-specific traffic fatalities in four Australian states while considering the...

New research findings since the 2007 Surgeon General's Call to Action to Prevent and Reduce Underage Drinking: a review.

In 2007, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services issued The Surgeon General's Call to Action to Prevent and Reduce Underage Drinking, a publication documenting a problem linked to nearly 5,000 injury deaths annually and poor academic performance, potential cognitive deficits, risky sexual behavior, physical and sexual assaults, and other substance use. This report reviews subsequent underage drinking and related traffic fatality trends and research on determinants, consequences, and prevention interventions. New research reports, meta-analyses, and systematic literature reviews were examined. Since the Call to Action, reductions in underage frequency of drinking, heavy drinking occasions, and alcohol-related traffic deaths that began in the 1980s when the drinking age nationally became 21 have continued. Knowledge regarding determinants and consequences, particularly the effects of early-onset drinking, parental alcohol provision, and cognitive effects, has expanded. Additional studies support associations between the legal drinking age of 21, zero tolerance laws, higher alcohol prices, and reduced drinking and related problems. New research suggests that use/lose laws, social host liability, internal possession laws, graduated licensing, and night driving restrictions reduce traffic deaths involving underage drinking drivers. Additional studies support the positive effects of individually oriented interventions, especially screening and brief motivational interventions, web and face-to-face social norms interventions, college web-based interventions, parental interventions, and multicomponent community interventions. Despite reductions in underage alcohol consumption and related traffic deaths, underage drinking remains an enduring problem. Continued research is warranted in minimally studied areas, such as prospective studies of alcohol and brain development, policy studies of use/lose laws, internal possession laws, social host liability, and parent-family interventions.

Variations in sub-national road traffic fatality trends in a low-income country

Background:In most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), road traffic fatality (RTF) trends are presented in aggregated form at the national level. This practice omits important information regarding RTF risk at sub-national levels.Objective:This ecological study assesses the extent of RTF variations at different sub-national levels in Pakistan, a low-income country.Materials and Methods:Based on official statistics, significant variations in three RTF indicators i.e. per population, per registered vehicles, and per crash were compared by regression analyses at two sub-national levels i.e. provincially (2000-2009) and district-wise (2004).Results:The national RTF counts are based on data from four provinces. From 2000 to 2009, RTF per population and per registered vehicles decreased in all provinces except Balochistan. RTF per crash in Punjab decreased from 0.61 to 0.56 (beta coefficient (β) year = –0.0082, P = <0.001), whereas in Balochistan it increased from 0.40 to 0.58 (β year = 0.0708, P = <0.001) over the same period. District-level comparisons were possible only in Punjab where RTF per crash varied from 0.25 to 2.15 and correlated (β = 0.50, P = 0.003) with RTF per population.Conclusions:Sub-national RTF surveillance is necessary in LMICs like Pakistan in order to prioritize available resources on high-risk jurisdictions such as the Balochistan province and districts of Punjab where high RTF per population and per crash exist.

ROAD ACCIDENTS IN SWEDEN

This article is the most recent summary of road accidents in Sweden, providing statistics on road deaths by year, type of driver involved, and age of the drivers involved. Sweden, along with the Netherlands, Norway, and Great Britain has one of the lowest crash fatality rates worldwide. Part of this success is due to an 11 point plan implemented in 1999, which prescribes measures regarding the following points- the financing of new roads, voluntary organizations, traffic offenses, road traffic system design, technologies, winter tires, quality assurance, cyclists, road-user responsibility, safety in urban areas, and safety for particularly dangerous areas. The author concludes that, while Sweden has made a marked improvement in traffic fatality trends, it will not meet its goal of 270 or fewer deaths in 2007. The author believes that this could be improved with better speed compliance, which would predict a fifty percent decrease in fatalities.