The risks of warm nights and wet days in the context of climate change: assessing road safety outcomes in Boston, USA and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

José Ignacio Nazif-Munoz,John Spengler,Augusta Williams,Pablo Martínez

doi:10.1186/s40621-021-00342-w

José Ignacio Nazif-Munoz, John Spengler + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-021-00342-w

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Abstract

BackgroundThere remains a dearth of cross-city comparisons on the impact of climate change through extreme temperature and precipitation events on road safety. We examined trends in traffic fatalities, injuries and property damage associated with high temperatures and heavy rains in Boston (USA) and Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic).MethodsOfficial publicly available data on daily traffic outcomes and weather conditions during the warm season (May to September) were used for Boston (2002–2015) and Santo Domingo (2013–2017). Daily maximum temperatures and mean precipitations for each city were considered for classifying hot days, warm days, and warm nights, and wet, very wet, and extremely wet days. Time-series analyses were used to assess the relationship between temperature and precipitation and daily traffic outcomes, using a quasi-Poisson regression.ResultsIn Santo Domingo, the presence of a warm night increased traffic fatalities with a rate ratio (RR) of 1.31 (95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.00,1.71). In Boston, precipitation factors (particularly, extremely wet days) were associated with increments in traffic injuries (RR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.32) and property damages (RR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.51).ConclusionDuring the warm season, mixed associations between weather conditions and traffic outcomes were found across Santo Domingo and Boston. In Boston, increases in heavy precipitation events were associated with higher traffic injuries and property damage. As climate change-related heavy precipitation events are projected to increase in the USA, the associations found in this study should be of interest for road safety planning in a rapidly changing environment.

Highlights

There remains a dearth of cross-city comparisons on the impact of climate change through extreme temperature and precipitation events on road safety
Fatal collisions in Boston, MA There was a daily average of 0.07 traffic fatalities per day during the warm season in Boston, MA from 2002 to 2015, and an average of 1.5 traffic fatalities per year 100, 000 population, which corresponds to a total of 146 traffic fatalities during this period (Table 1)
Fatal collisions in Santo Domingo, RD In Santo Domingo, there were 1.53 traffic fatalities per day on average during the warm season, and an average of 14.1 traffic fatalities per year 100,000 population, which corresponds to a total of 1404 fatalities from 2013 to 2017 (Table 3)

Summary

Introduction

There remains a dearth of cross-city comparisons on the impact of climate change through extreme temperature and precipitation events on road safety. Extreme weather events associated with global warming will test the sustainability, resilience, and flexibility of multiple systems, including road infrastructures and human capabilities (Theofilatos & Yannis, 2014a; Mora et al, 2018). Under these new circumstances knowledge to lure out the multiple effects of climate change on road safety should be advanced. It is important to contrast how inclement weather may affect places with different levels of development of road infrastructures, transport policies, vehicles’ technology, and/or health systems

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