Sea Surface Temperature Trends Research Articles

Seasonal patterns and bloom dynamics of phytoplankton based on satellite-derived chlorophyll-a in the eastern yellow sea

Satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) is essential for assessing environmental conditions, yet its application in the optically complex waters of the eastern Yellow Sea (EYS) is challenged. This study refines the Chl-a algorithm for the EYS employing a switching approach based on normalized water-leaving radiance at 555 nm wavelength according to turbidity conditions to investigate phytoplankton bloom patterns in the EYS. The refined Chl-a algorithm (EYS algorithm) outperforms prior algorithms, exhibiting a strong alignment with in situ Chl-a. Employing the EYS algorithm, seasonal and bloom patterns of Chl-a are detailed for the offshore and nearshore EYS areas. Distinct seasonal Chl-a patterns and factors influencing bloom initiation differed between the areas, and the peak Chl-a during the bloom period from 2018 to 2020 was significantly lower than the average year in both areas. Specifically, bimodal and unimodal peak patterns in Chl-a were observed in the offshore and nearshore areas, respectively. By investigating the relationships between environmental factors and bloom parameters, we identified that major controlling factors governing bloom initiation were mixed layer depth (MLD) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the offshore and nearshore areas, respectively. Additionally, this study proposed that the recent decrease in the peak Chl-a might be caused by rapid environmental changes such as the warming trend of sea surface temperature (SST) and the limitation of nutrients. For example, external forcing, phytoplankton growth, and nutrient dynamics can change due to increased SST and limitation of nutrients, which can lead to a decrease in Chl-a. This study contributes to understanding phytoplankton dynamics in the EYS, highlighting the importance of region-specific considerations in comprehending Chl-a patterns and bloom dynamics.

Crucial role of sea surface temperature warming patterns in near-term high-impact weather and climate projection

Recent studies indicate that virtually all global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulty simulating sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns over the past four decades. GCMs produce enhanced warming in the eastern Equatorial Pacific (EPAC) and Southern Ocean (SO) warming, while observations show intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) and slight cooling in the eastern EPAC and SO. Using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s latest higher resolution atmospheric model and coupled prediction system, we show the model biases in SST trend pattern have profound implications for near-term projections of high-impact storm statistics, including the frequency of atmospheric rivers (AR), tropical storms (TS) and mesoscale convection systems (MCS), as well as for hydrological and climate sensitivity. If the future SST warming pattern continues to resemble the observed pattern from the past few decades rather than the GCM simulated/predicted patterns, our results suggest (1) a drastically different future projection of high-impact storms and their associated hydroclimate changes, especially over the Western Hemisphere, (2) a stronger global hydrological sensitivity, and (3) substantially less global warming due to stronger negative feedback and lower climate sensitivity. The roles of SST trend patterns over the EPAC, IPWP, SO, and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone Main Development Region (AMDR) are isolated, quantified, and used to understand the simulated differences. Specifically, SST trend patterns in the EPAC and AMDR are crucial for modeled differences in AR and MCS frequency, while those in the IPWP and AMDR are essential for differences in TS frequency over the North Atlantic.

Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security

Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited small pelagic species, similar to those recorded for surface isotherms. An intensification in upwelling intensity within the northern and central regions of the system is documented without a change in marine primary productivity. In contrast, upwelling intensity is stable in the southern region, while there is a decline in primary productivity. These environmental differences affected several small pelagic species across national boundaries. This adds a new threat to these recently overexploited fish stocks, making sustainable management more difficult. Such changes must motivate common regional policy considerations for food security and sovereignty in all West African countries sharing the same stocks.

Decadal Variation in Winter‐Spring Thermal Front to the Zhejiang‐Fujian Coast and Its Mechanism

AbstractOff the east shore of China, thermal front plays a crucial role in modulating coastal biogeochemical environment. Based on multi‐source observational and reanalysis products, decadal variation and regulatory mechanism of Zhejiang‐Fujian coastal front (ZFCF) were investigated. The intensity of ZFCF showed a two‐stage inversed varying trend over past four decades: a downtrend from 1982 to 2002 followed by an uptrend from 2002 to 2022. During 1982–2002, sea surface temperature (SST) experienced more pronounced warming in inshore areas than offshore due to weakening of the southward coastal current, and this primarily led to the downtrend of ZFCF. Within 2002–2022, opposite SST trends were observed on two sides of ZFCF, that is, the ZFCF kept intensifying due to the cooperation of cooling inshore and warming offshore. The enhanced coastal current driven by stronger monsoon and increased Yangtze River discharge cooled the inshore area, then the cooling was further facilitated by intensified heat loss in the upper layer of the plume. Meanwhile, the onshore shift of Kuroshio led to strengthened intrusion of warm water into the East China Sea, heating the offshore side of ZFCF and thus intensifying the front.

Exceptional atmospheric conditions in June 2023 generated a northwest European marine heatwave which contributed to breaking land temperature records

The Northwest European shelf experienced unprecedented surface temperature anomalies in June 2023 (anomalies up to 5 °C locally, north of Ireland). Here, we show the shelf average underwent its longest recorded category II marine heatwave (16 days). With state-of-the-art observation and modelling capabilities, we show the marine heatwave developed quickly due to strong atmospheric forcing (high level of sunshine, weak winds, tropical air) and weak wave activity under anticyclonic weather regimes. Once formed, this shallow marine heatwave fed back on the weather: over the sea it reduced cloud cover and over land it contributed to breaking June mean temperature records and to enhanced convective rainfall through stronger, warmer and moister sea breezes. This marine heatwave was intensified by the last 20-year warming trend in sea surface temperatures. Such sea surface temperatures are projected to become commonplace by the middle of the century under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario.

First Analyses of the TIMELINE AVHRR SST Product: Long-Term Trends of Sea Surface Temperature at 1 km Resolution across European Coastal Zones

Coastal areas are among the most productive areas in the world, ecologically as well as economically. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has evolved as the major essential climate variable (ECV) and ocean variable (EOV) to monitor land–ocean interactions and oceanic warming trends. SST monitoring can be achieved by means of remote sensing. The current relatively coarse spatial resolution of established SST products limits their potential in small-scale, coastal zones. This study presents the first analysis of the TIMELINE 1 km SST product from AVHRR in four key European regions: The Northern and Baltic Sea, the Adriatic Sea, the Aegean Sea, and the Balearic Sea. The analysis of monthly anomaly trends showed high positive SST trends in all study areas, exceeding the global average SST warming. Seasonal variations reveal peak warming during the spring, early summer, and early autumn, suggesting a potential seasonal shift. The spatial analysis of the monthly anomaly trends revealed significantly higher trends at near-coast areas, which were especially distinct in the Mediterranean study areas. The clearest pattern was visible in the Adriatic Sea in March and May, where the SST trends at the coast were twice as high as that observed at a 40 km distance to the coast. To validate our findings, we compared the TIMELINE monthly anomaly time series with monthly anomalies derived from the Level 4 CCI SST anomaly product. The comparison showed an overall good accordance with correlation coefficients of R > 0.82 for the Mediterranean study areas and R = 0.77 for the North and Baltic Seas. This study highlights the potential of AVHRR Local Area Coverage (LAC) data with 1 km spatial resolution for mapping long-term SST trends in areas with high spatial SST variability, such as coastal regions.

Role of Japan Sea Throughflow in the spatial variability of the long-term sea surface temperature trend

The Japan Sea shows a much stronger warming of long-term sea surface temperature (SST) than surrounding oceans. The warming trend possesses a meridionally alternating zonal band pattern, with weak trends along the paths of the Japan Sea Throughflow and strong trends in the remaining interior region. Using idealized models of the Japan Sea Throughflow and atmospheric heating, this study examines the process behind the formation of such spatial patterns in the SST trend. We find that zonal band structures form in a flat rectangular coastline model, and heat budget analysis shows that horizontal heat transport, due to throughflow, reduces the warming effect created by the surface heat flux. A weak SST trend appears around the jet, while a strong SST trend appears elsewhere. Bathymetric effects are also examined using a model with realistic coastline settings. The location of the western boundary current stabilizes, and the coastal branch begins to disconnect from the Japanese coastline toward the north, allowing a more stable SST warming region to form in the southern interior region. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments confirm that a weak (strong) SST trend corresponds to a short (long) residence time, and eddies in the Japan Sea prolong the residence time in interior regions. The model results suggest that the accumulation time of surface heating is essential to the spatial distribution of the long-term SST warming trend.

Logistic curve modelling of sea surface temperature and latent heat flux variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

The Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change due to its unique ocean-atmosphere interactions. The region is characterized by warm temperatures, high evaporation rates, and strong convection, making it particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gases. This susceptibility leads to an overall trend of warming across the Earth's surface and atmosphere, intensifying sea surface temperatures (SST) and increasing evaporation rates, consequently influencing Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF). The strong influence of both SST and SLHF on atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns makes them critical factors in determining the region's climate, particularly in monsoon-dominated regions. Analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in both SST and SLHF in the central region of TIO. To model this, standard Logistic Curve Model (LCM) has been applied to these parameters averaged over the central region of the TIO. The model is run for a period of 20 years from 2001 to 2020, grouped into four lustrums. The LCM-derived SST and SLHF are in good consistent with observed datasets during the above periods with, correlation coefficients ranging from 0.92 to 0.96 for SST and 0.86–0.90 for SLHF. Extending the model spatially across the entire TIO region explains the ability to project fluctuations in SST and SLHF values across different seasons. These findings highlight the model's relevance for capturing short-term, long-term, and seasonal variability of the parameters, providing important insights into regional climate dynamics.

Drivers of Changes to the ENSO–Europe Teleconnection Under Future Warming

AbstractThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to Europe is projected to strengthen under global warming in most climate model simulations. However, given the current difference between recent observations and historical model simulations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends, with models simulating an El Niño‐like warming in recent decades which is in disagreement with observations, it is important to understand the relative contributions of changes to the teleconnection forcing and background state to the overall teleconnection change. Using idealized climate model experiments, we show that both the eastward shift of El Niño precipitation and background state changes make contributions to the overall teleconnection change. These results suggest that the ENSO–Europe teleconnection can be expected to strengthen under global warming, even if ENSO precipitation anomalies do not shift eastwards as currently projected. However, the magnitude of the strengthening may depend on how much of an eastward shift does occur.

Did recent sea surface temperature warming reinforce the extreme East Asian summer monsoon precipitation in 2020?

We analyzed the possible effects of recent sea surface temperature (SST) warming on the extraordinary East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation in 2020 summer. The dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of SST are examined by conducting regional climate model experiments with observed SST and cold SST where the 22-year SST trend is removed. In the presence of warm SST, precipitation increases in low latitudes but decreases in the EASM region. This dipolar precipitation change pattern opposes the precipitation anomalies in 2020 summer, indicating that the extraordinary 2020 EASM precipitation is not likely driven by recent SST warming. The warm SST suppresses the western North Pacific subtropical high expansion and weakens the southwesterly from the South China Sea toward the EASM region. In terms of large-scale atmospheric circulations, SST-induced wind changes strengthen the local Walker circulation in the South China Sea and the Philippines and the local Hadley circulation across the EASM region. These support the reduced EASM rainfall in the control experiment compared to the cold SST experiment and imply that the precipitation reduction by dynamical effects could exceed the precipitation increase by thermodynamic effects in the EASM region under warm SST.

Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate

AbstractPrecipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilizing climate. Here, we analyze precipitation projections in six multi‐century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high‐emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilization experiments. For example, stabilization reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilization experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation.

Spatial pattern of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a trends in relation to hydrodynamic processes in the Alborán Sea

Environmental conditions such as temperature, planktonic biomass, and ocean currents play an important role in the development and distribution of marine species. This work aims to estimate, in a high spatial resolution, the actual trends of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) and to assess the relationship with the local hydrodynamic conditions in the Alborán Sea. To investigate these objectives, time series of SST and Chl-a of satellite sensor data were analyzed during 20 years from January 2001 to December 2020, using the Seasonal-Trend-Loess (STL) decomposition method and the Mann-Kendall seasonality test. The results, obtained with a 95% of confidence, showed that the Alborán Sea basin is subject to sea surface warming evaluated at 0.027 ± 0.008 ° C per year, related to the warming of the Atlantic water mass, which contributes to a decrease of productivity evaluated at -0.0024 ± 0.0003 μg /l per year of Chl-a concentration. These trends are not homogeneous over the entire basin area but show a large regional variation between different parts of the Alborán Sea due to the hydrodynamic process of the Atlantic Jet - Western Alboran Gyre system (AJ-WAG), which is more active especially in summer/autumn seasons and contribute largely to these changes by mixing the waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.

Man, it's a hot one: Trends and extremes in Florida autumn heat stress

AbstractExtreme heat is the deadliest weather‐related hazard in the United States, and is increasing in frequency, intensity and duration due to climate change. Heat stress is broadly defined as environmental influences on body temperature, and in this study is evaluated using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which incorporates temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. Heat stress and associated humid heat have increased significantly across many regions of the globe, particularly in the subtropics and Tropics, which exacerbates health and excess mortality risks in those areas. However, heat stress has typically been investigated as a solely summer phenomenon. This study uses WBGT to examine heat stress trends and extremes during climatological autumn from the 1950s to 2022 at eight Florida cities. Results show that average autumn heat stress has increased significantly throughout much of Florida, particularly at coastal locations in the Florida Peninsula. Daytime heat stress increases were larger than their night‐time counterparts in northern Florida, while the opposite was true in central and southern Florida. Extreme (90th percentile) autumn heat stress events also increased in intensity and frequency, particularly in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys. Furthermore, locations in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys experienced increases of greater than 1.5 extreme autumn heat stress days per decade. Heat stress trends were predominantly largest in urban coastal environments, suggesting links to urbanization as well as statistically significant early autumn warming trends in sea surface temperatures. Overall, results indicated that heat stress in Florida is no longer solely a summer hazard and poses a particular threat to coastal areas in early autumn when ocean heat content is still near its climatological peak.

Trends in Atmospheric Heat Transport Since 1980

Abstract We investigate the linear trends in meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) since 1980 in atmospheric reanalysis datasets, coupled climate models, and atmosphere-only climate models forced with historical sea surface temperatures. Trends in AHT are decomposed into contributions from three components of circulation: (i) transient eddies, (ii) stationary eddies, and (iii) the mean meridional circulation. All reanalyses and models agree on the pattern of AHT trends in the Southern Ocean, providing confidence in the trends in this region. There are robust increases in transient-eddy AHT magnitude in the Southern Ocean in the reanalyses, which are well replicated by the atmosphere-only models, while coupled models show smaller magnitude trends. This suggests that the pattern of sea surface temperature trends contributes to the transient-eddy AHT trends in this region. In the tropics, we find large differences between mean-meridional circulation AHT trends in models and the reanalyses, which we connect to discrepancies in tropical precipitation trends. In the Northern Hemisphere, we find less evidence of large-scale trends and more uncertainty, but note several regions with mismatches between models and the reanalyses that have dynamical explanations. Throughout this work we find strong compensation between the different components of AHT, most notably in the Southern Ocean where transient-eddy AHT trends are well compensated by trends in the mean-meridional circulation AHT, resulting in relatively small total AHT trends. This highlights the importance of considering AHT changes holistically, rather than each AHT component individually.

Remote Estimates of Sea Surface Nitrate and Its Trends From Ocean Color in the Northwest Pacific

AbstractSea surface nitrate (SSN) plays an important role in assessing new production and phytoplankton growth in the ocean, yet it has been challenging to estimate SSN from satellites due to its complex and varying relationship with different environmental proxies. The different SSN trends in the northwest Pacific reported in previous studies call for more detailed research to examine the interannual variabilities in SSN. We addressed this problem by developing a stacking‐random‐forest based algorithm for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). It allows estimating SSN from daily sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl) at a spatial resolution of 4 km. For SSN ranging between 0.0005 and 25.88 μmol/kg (N = 3,452), the model had a root mean square difference of 1.34 μmol/kg (5.3%) and coefficient of determination of 0.92. Further independent validation and sensitivity tests demonstrated the validity of the algorithm in retrieving SSN. Using this novel data record, for the first time, we investigated the SSN interannual variabilities and trends from MODIS. Overall, the SSN showed a weak decreasing trend of −0.01 ± 0.007 μmol kg−1 yr−1 (p < 0.05) in the northwest Pacific in 2002–2020, associated with an increasing trend in SST (0.03 ± 0.01˚C yr−1 at p < 0.05) and insignificant trend (0.001 ± 0.001 mg m−3 yr−1 at p > 0.05) in Chl. The interannual variabilities of SSN were significantly correlated with the environmental proxies (SST, Chl) and the climate indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation). The SSN trends can be further restricted with more data available.

20th Century Warming in the Western Florida Keys Was Dominated by Increasing Winter Temperatures

AbstractLong‐lived Atlantic coral species like Orbicella faveolata are important archives of oceanographic change in shallow, marine environments like the Florida Keys. Not only can coral‐based records extend for multiple centuries beyond the limits of the instrumental record, but they can also provide a more accurate representation of in situ conditions than gridded interpolated sea‐surface temperature (SST) products for nearshore reef environments. We use the coral Sr/Ca paleothermometer to produce a 150‐year (1830–1980 C.E.) monthly SST reconstruction from an O. faveolata colony collected in the Marquesas Keys, FL, USA. An important feature of our record is a significant 20th‐century warming trend in winter SSTs. We hypothesize that the winter warming trend was driven partially by a decrease in upwelling associated cyclonic eddies spinning off the Florida Current. A long‐term weakening of winter Florida Current transport over the 20th century could be responsible for decreased cyclonic eddy formation in the Florida Straits. Another feature of the record is pronounced multidecadal fluctuations of mean annual warming and cooling in the record, which correspond to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), with the AMV lagging behind western Florida Keys temperatures by 5–11 years. Strong coherence between coral‐based SST reconstructions in the western Florida Keys with broader scale Atlantic oceanographic trends over the past century suggests a common driver of regional SST variability.

Baseline Climatology of the Canary Current Upwelling System and Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature

Global climate change has induced a rise in sea surface temperature (SST), although this increase is not uniform across the world. Significant variations exist between coastal and offshore waters, particularly in regions affected by upwelling processes. This study focuses on the Canary Current Upwelling System (CCUS), stretching from Northwest Iberia to Northwest Africa. High-resolution remotely sensed SST data (0.05°) from the ODYSSEA Level 4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed dataset were validated with in situ measurements and employed to establish a regional climatological baseline for 1982–2012. Subsequent years were compared to this baseline to construct SST anomaly maps, revealing SST changes since 2012. The study area was further divided into sub-regions for comparative analysis. Results indicate that SST consistently increased at a higher rate offshore compared to the adjacent nearshore regions. A reference dataset spanning 1951–1981 was used to gauge SST variability between the two baselines. SST exhibited a 0.59 °C increase from 1951–1981 to 1982–2012, with a slowing of SST trends beyond the 1982–2012 baseline. This research offers valuable insights into the climatological dynamics of the CCUS. These findings enhance our understanding of this critical coastal system’s climatology, laying the groundwork for future investigations into evolving climate patterns in coastal regions.

Regime change in northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures revealed using a quantile approach

Trends in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the US Northeast Continental Shelf and the adjacent Slope Sea were analyzed using a quantile approach. SST through the period 1982–2021 were analyzed for change in annual mean and range. In addition, the mean of each 25% quantile of the data by year was calculated. Using the full time series, the climatological SSTs at each quantile was determined, which in turn were used with the annual data to determine the number of days temperature fell within the limits of each climatological quantile. The time series of the data parameters were summarized by grid location and for a series of representative index areas. The index areas were analyzed for evidence of change points or regime shifts using the STARS (Sequential T-test Analysis of Regime Shifts) algorithm. The widely reported SST warming in this region was reinforced with our analysis; our findings also revealed new aspects of the change of thermal conditions in important ways. Mean annual temperature trended at approximately 0.36 °C per decade; however, warm quantile SSTs increased by more than 1.25 °C per decade in the Slope Sea, representing a five degree increase over the study period. The change point analysis suggested the change in thermal regime began as early as 2005 or 2007 with the study region fully enveloped by regime change by 2012. A previously identified change point in 1999 appears to be related to the duration of warming as opposed to SST levels. Mean SST alone does not capture the nature of high temperature exposure for living marine species in the study area; these regions may be experiencing a month or more of stressfully higher SST. The thermal effects derived using the quantile approach suggest different types of thermal exposures compared to heat wave analyses, especially related to cumulative exposure.

Coral mucus as a reservoir of bacteriophages targeting Vibrio pathogens.

The increasing trend in sea surface temperature promotes the spread of Vibrio species, which are known to cause diseases in a wide range of marine organisms. Among these pathogens, Vibrio mediterranei has emerged as a significant threat, leading to bleaching in the coral species Oculina patagonica. Bacteriophages, or phages, are viruses that infect bacteria, thereby regulating microbial communities and playing a crucial role in the coral's defense against pathogens. However, our understanding of phages that infect V. mediterranei is limited. In this study, we identified two phage species capable of infecting V. mediterranei by utilizing a combination of cultivation and metagenomic approaches. These phages are low-abundance specialists within the coral mucus layer that exhibit rapid proliferation in the presence of their hosts, suggesting a potential role in coral defense. Additionally, one of these phages possesses a conserved domain of a leucine-rich repeat protein, similar to those harbored in the coral genome, that plays a key role in pathogen recognition, hinting at potential coral-phage coevolution. Furthermore, our research suggests that lytic Vibrio infections could trigger prophage induction, which may disseminate genetic elements, including virulence factors, in the coral mucus layer. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of historical coral-phage interactions as a form of coral immunity against invasive Vibrio pathogens.