Trends In Mortality Research Articles

Detect the Cardiovascular Disease's in Initial Phase using a Range of Feature Selection Techniques of ML

Heart-related conditions remain the foremost global cause of mortality. In 2000, heart disease claimed around 14 million lives worldwide, a number that surged to approximately 620 million by 2023. The aging and expanding population significantly contribute to this rising mortality trend. However, this also underscores the potential for significant impact through early intervention, crucial for reducing fatalities from heart failure, where prevention plays a pivotal role. The aim of the present research is to develop a prospective ML framework that can detect important features and predict cardiac conditions as an early stage using a variety of choice of features strategies. The Features subsets that were chosen were designated as FST1, FST2, and FST3, respectively. Three distinct methods, including correlation-based feature selection, chi-square and mutual information, were used for picking features. Next, the most confident theory & the most appropriate feature selection were identified using six alternative machine learning models: Logistical Regression (LR) (AL1), the support vector Machine (SVM ) (AL2), K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) (AL3), Random forest (RF) model (AL4), Naive Bayes (NB) model (AL5), and Decision Tree (DT) (AL6). Ultimately, we discovered that, with 95.25% accuracy, 95.11% sensitivity, 95.23% specificity, 96.96 area below receiver operating characteristic and 0.27 log loss, the random forest model offered the most excellent results for F3 feature sets. No one has investigated coronary artery disease forecasting in depth; however, our study evaluates multiple statistics (specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, AUROC, and log loss) and uses multiple attribute choices to improve algorithms success for important features. The suggested model has considerable promise for medical use to speculate CVD find in Precursor at a minimal cost and in a shorter amount of time as well as will assist limited experience physician to take right decision based on the results of the used model combined with specific criteria.

Investigating the trend of demographic changes, mortality, clinical and paraclinical findings of patients hospitalized in the Corona ward, before and after the start of general vaccination of COVID-19

BackgroundPrioritizing prevention over treatment has been a longstanding principle in the world health system. This study aims to compare the demographic changes, mortality, clinical, and paraclinical findings of patients hospitalized in the Corona ward before and after the start of general vaccination.MethodsThis cross-sectional study utilized the simple random sampling method in 2022, analyzing 300 medical records of patients admitted to the Corona ward at 22 Bahman Khaf Hospital. Data were collected using a checklist with the help of the Medical Care Monitoring System and analyzed using SPSS-22 statistical software and Chi-square statistical test at a significance level of p < 0.05.ResultsBefore the start of general vaccination for COVID-19, the majority of patients were hospitalized in the Corona Intensive Care Unit (59.3%), aged between 51 and 65 years (47.3%), hospitalized for more than 3 days (54%), required intubation (49.3%), had SPO2 < 93% (60.7%), and exhibited common symptoms such as cough, shortness of breath, and loss of consciousness. Paraclinical findings included positive CRP, decreased lymphocytes, and ground glass opacity (GGO). After the start of general vaccination for COVID-19, most patients were hospitalized in the general care department of Corona (68%), aged between 36 and 50 years (47.3%), hospitalized for less than three days (66%), required intubation (20%), had SPO2 ≥ 93% (77.3%), and exhibited common symptoms such as weakness, headache, and body pain. Paraclinical findings were within the normal range.ConclusionsGeneral vaccination for COVID-19 has significantly reduced patient mortality and morbidity. Health policymakers should prioritize general vaccination to achieve herd immunity and improve public health.

Trends in primary malignant bone cancer incidence and mortality in the United States, 2000–2017: A population-based study

BackgroundPrimary malignant bone cancers have extremely low incidence, resulting in poor evaluation of their epidemiological characteristics. The objective of this study was to investigate trends in the incidence of primary malignant bone cancers and related mortality. Materials and methodsData from patients diagnosed with malignant bone cancers from 2000 to 2017 in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database were retrospectively analyzed. Annual age-adjusted incidence and mortality were calculated, and the annual percentage change analyzed. Further, characteristics including patient age and sex, as well as the primary site and stage of different tumor types, were analyzed. ResultsThe overall age-adjusted incidence rate of primary malignant bone cancers was 7.70 per million people per year, and incidence rates had increased in patients between 60 and 79 years old, or with tumor size ≥ 8 cm. The incidence of chordoma increased significantly (annual percentage change (APC), 3.0 % per year), while those of WHO grade I and II primary bone cancers decreased. During 2000–2017, the mortality rate attributable to malignant bone cancers across the entire United States was 4.41 per million people per year. A positive mortality trend was observed during the study period (APC = 0.7 %, 95 % confidence interval: 0.0 %–1.5 %). Patients with osteosarcoma, and those who were female or of white ethnicity showed significant increasing trends in mortality rate. ConclusionsDifferent tumor types have variable epidemiological manifestations, in terms of incidence and mortality, and exhibited altered trends over recent years. These variables can provide guidance to inform allocation of medical resources.

The long-term changing patterns of suicide mortality in China from 1987 to 2020: continuing urban-rural disparity

BackgroundOver the past three decades, China has experienced significant changes in urban-rural, gender, and age-specific suicide mortality patterns. This study aimed to investigate the long-term trends in suicide mortality in China from 1987 to 2020.MethodsSuicide mortality data were obtained from China’s National Health Commission. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine changes in trends and age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on suicide mortality from 1987 to 2020. Net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and period relative risks were also calculated.ResultsCrude and age-standardized suicide mortality in China showed continuing downward trends from 1987 to 2020, with a more pronounced decrease in rural areas (net drift = -7.07%, p<0.01) compared to urban areas (net drift = -3.41%, p<0.01). The decline curve of urban areas could be divided into three substages. Period and cohort effects were more prominent in rural areas. Suicide risk was highest among individuals aged 20–24 and gradually increased after age 60. Females, particularly those of childbearing age, had higher suicide risk than males, with a reversal observed after age 50. This gender reversal showed distinct patterns in urban and rural areas, with a widening gap in urban areas and a relatively stable gap in rural areas.ConclusionsSuicide mortality in China has consistently declined over the past three decades. However, disparities in age, gender, and urban-rural settings persist, with new patterns emerging. Targeted suicide prevention programs are urgently needed for high-risk groups, including females of childbearing age and the elderly, and to address the slower decrease and reversing urban-rural gender trends.

Trends and disparities in cardiac implantable electronic device infection-related mortality in the United States.

We performed a cross-sectional study using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database to analyze the trends in cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) infection-related mortality from 1999 to 2020. We analyzed the death certificate data from the CDC WONDER database from 1999 to 2020 for CIED infections in the US population aged ≥25 years usingInternational Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision(ICD-10) codes, listed as the underlying or contributing cause of death. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed per 1 million population by standardizing crude mortality rates to the 2000 US census population. To assess annual mortality trends, we employed the Joinpoint regression model, calculating the annual percent change (APC) in AAMR and corresponding 95% CIs. Overall, there was an observed declining trend in AAMRs related to CIED infection-related mortality. Males accounted for 55% of the total deaths, with persistently higher AAMRs compared to females over the study duration. Both males and females had an overall decreasing trend in AAMRs throughout the study duration. On race/ethnicity stratified analysis, non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks exhibited the highest overall AAMR, followed by NH American Indians or Alaska Natives, NH Whites, Hispanic or Latinos, and NH Asian or Pacific Islanders. On a stratified analysis based on region, the South region had the highest overall AAMR, followed by the Midwest, West, and Northeast regions. Our study demonstrates a significant decline in CIED infection-related mortality in patients over the last two decades. Notable gender, racial/ethnic, and regional differences exist in the rates of mortality related to CIED infections.

Trends in mortality rates and correlations between intracranial injuries and external causes: A Japanese population study.

The age-standardized incidence of head trauma in 2016 was 369 per 100,000 people worldwide. The Western Pacific region, including Japan, had the highest incidence. This study aimed to extract ICD-10 code data for intracranial injury (S06) and external causes of morbidity and mortality (V01-Y89), analyze their characteristics and interrelationships, and contribute to these diseases' prevention, treatment, and prognosis. The number of deaths according to injury type and external cause type of intracranial injury published by the Japanese government was statistically analyzed using JoinPoint, and univariate distribution and multivariate correlation were conducted using JMP Software. From 1999-2021, there was a downward trend in the number of deaths because of intracranial injuries: mortality from intracranial injuries was higher among those aged ≥65 years. Conversely, mortality from intracranial injuries was lower among those aged ≤14 years. Among deaths from intracranial injury, mortality from diffuse brain injury and traumatic subdural hemorrhage was more common. Among deaths from external causes of intracranial injury, mortality from falls, transport accidents, and other unforeseen accidents was more common. Mortality because of intracranial injuries increased significantly during the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. For some age groups and sexes, there were significant inverse correlations of mortality with traumatic subdural hemorrhage and traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage for transport accidents, intentional self-harm and assault, and diffuse brain injury and focal brain injury for falls. We believe that the data presented in this study will be useful for preventing and treating intracranial injuries and for developing administrative measures to reduce intracranial injuries.

Estimation of cause-specific mortality in Rakai, Uganda, using verbal autopsy 1999-2019

ABSTRACT Background There are scant data on the causes of adult deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated the level and trends in adult mortality, overall and by different causes, in rural Rakai, Uganda, by age, sex, and HIV status. Objectives To estimate and analyse adult cause-specific mortality trends in Rakai, Uganda. Methodology Mortality information by cause, age, sex, and HIV status was recorded in the Rakai Community Cohort study using verbal autopsy interviews, HIV serosurveys, and residency data. We estimated the average number of years lived in adulthood. Using demographic decomposition methods, we estimated the contribution of each cause of death to adult mortality based on the average number of years lived in adulthood. Results Between 1999 and 2019, 63082 adults (15–60 years) were censused, with 1670 deaths registered. Of these, 1656 (99.2%) had completed cause of death data from verbal autopsy. The crude adult death rate was 5.60 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.33–5.87) per 1000 person-years of observation (pyo). The crude death rate decreased from 11.41 (95% CI: 10.61–12.28) to 3.27 (95% CI: 2.89–3.68) per 1000 pyo between 1999–2004 and 2015–2019. The average number of years lived in adulthood increased in people living with HIV and decreased in HIV-negative individuals between 2000 and 2019. Communicable diseases, primarily HIV and Malaria, had the biggest decreases, which improved the average number of years lived by approximately extra 12 years of life in females and 6 years in males. There were increases in deaths due to non-communicable diseases and external causes, which reduced the average number of years lived in adulthood by 2.0 years and 1.5 years in females and males, respectively. Conclusion There has been a significant decline in overall mortality from 1999 to 2019, with the greatest decline seen in people living with HIV since the availability of antiretroviral therapy in 2004. By 2020, the predominant causes of death among females were non-communicable diseases, with external causes of death dominating in males.

Global Burden and Trends of Primary Liver Cancer Attributable to Comorbid Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among People Living with Hepatitis B: An Observational Trend Study from 1990 to 2019.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of liver cancer among people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV from 1990 to 2019. We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among the burden of HBV-related liver cancer. We applied the PAFs to the burden of HBV-related liver cancer derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database to obtain the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity. The prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and deaths of liver cancer attributable to the comorbidity were assessed at the global, regional, and country levels and then stratified by the sociodemographic index (SDI), sex, and age group. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity were 9.9 (8.4-11.5) and 182.4 (154.9-212.7) per 10,000,000 individuals, respectively. High-income Asia Pacific and East Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates increased in 16 out of 21 GBD regions. High-income North America had the largest annual increases in both age-standardized prevalence rates (EAPC = 6.07; 95% UI, 5.59 to 6.56) and DALY rates (EAPC = 4.77; 95% UI, 4.35 to 5.20), followed by Australasia and Central Asia. Across all SDI regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most rapid increase in age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, men had consistently higher disease burdens than women across all age groups. The patterns of mortality burden and trends are similar to those of DALYs. The burden of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV has exhibited an increasing trend across most regions over the last three decades. Tailored prevention strategies targeting T2DM should be implemented among individuals living with HBV.

Trends and Disparities in Treatment and Control of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in US Adults, 1999 to 2018.

Although cardiovascular mortality continued declining from 2000 to 2019, the rate of this decrease decelerated. We aimed to assess the trends and disparities in risk factor control and treatment among US adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease to find potential causes of the deceleration. A total of 55 ,021 participants, aged ≥20 years, from the 1999 to 2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included, of which 5717 were with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Risk factor control was defined as hemoglobin A1c <7%, blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg, and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <100 mg/dL. The prevalence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease oscillated between 7.3% and 8.9% from 1999 to 2018. A significant increasing trend was observed in the prevalence of diabetes, obesity, heavy alcohol consumption, and self-reported hypertension within the population with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (Ptrend≤0.001). Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <100 mg/dL increased from 7.1% in 1999 to 2002 to 15.7% in 2003 to 2006, before plateauing. Blood pressure control (<140/90 mm Hg) increased until 2011 to 2014, but declined to 70.1% in 2015 to 2018 (Ptrend<0.001, Pjoinpoint=0.14). Similarly, the proportion of participants achieving hemoglobin A1c control began to decrease after 2006 (Pjoinpoint=0.05, Ptrend=0.001). The percentage of participants achieving all 3 targets increased significantly from 4.5% to 18.6% across 1999 to 2018 (Ptrend=0.02), but the increasing trend decelerated after 2005 to 2006 (Pjoinpoint<0.001). Striking disparities in risk factor control and medication use persisted between sexes, and between different racial and ethnic populations. Worsened control of glycemia, blood pressure, obesity, and alcohol consumption, leveled lipid control, and persistent socioeconomic disparities may be contributing factors to the observed deceleration in decreasing cardiovascular mortality trends.

Learning from Ethiopia’s success in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality through a health systems lens

BackgroundThis study aimed to enhance insights into the key characteristics of maternal and neonatal mortality declines in Ethiopia, conducted as part of a seven-country study on Maternal and Newborn Health...

Effective multi-sectoral approach for rapid reduction in maternal and neonatal mortality: the exceptional case of Bangladesh

BackgroundBangladesh experienced impressive reductions in maternal and neonatal mortality over the past several decades with annual rates of decline surpassing 4% since 2000. We comprehensively assessed health system and non-health...

Clinical characteristics of acute myeloid leukaemia patients with a large number of azurophilic granules: A single-centre retrospective study.

Large amounts of azurophilic granules are considered to be a morphological feature of acute promyelocytic leukaemia (APL). However, a small percentage of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients also have a large number of azurophilic granules. A large cohort of 3210 AML patients in our hospital was screened to identify AML patients who had a large number of azurophilic granules. The clinical parameters of these patients were collected and compared with typical AML patients (control Group 1) and APL patients (control Group 2). The incidence of AML with a large number of azurophilic granules was 1.26%. The fibrinogen and D-dimer levels of patients in the study group were more similar to those of patients in control Group 2, as was the incidence of bleeding events. Additionally, patients in the study group had higher FLT3-ITD and NPM1 mutation rates than patients in control Group 1. Finally, patients in the study group had a higher 30-day mortality rate than those in control Group 2 (24.2% vs. 9.09%) and showed a higher 30-day mortality trend than those in control Group 1. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the prevention of coagulation dysfunction and bleeding events for these patients.

Challenges in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality in Niger: an in-depth case study

IntroductionRecent modelled estimates suggest that Niger made progress in maternal mortality since 2000. However, neonatal mortality has not declined since 2012 and maternal mortality estimates were based on limited data....

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among US Youth

Mortality rates in US youth have increased in recent years. An understanding of the role of racial and ethnic disparities in these increases is lacking. To compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality trends and rates among youth with Hispanic ethnicity and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian or Pacific Islander, Black, and White race. This cross-sectional study conducted temporal analysis (1999-2020) and comparison of aggregate mortality rates (2016-2020) for youth aged 1 to 19 years using US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database. Data were analyzed from June 30, 2023, to January 17, 2024. Pooled, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality rates per 100 000 youth (hereinafter, per 100 000) for leading underlying causes of death were compared. Injuries were classified by mechanism and intent. Between 1999 and 2020, there were 491 680 deaths among US youth, including 8894 (1.8%) American Indian or Alaska Native, 14 507 (3.0%) Asian or Pacific Islander, 110 154 (22.4%) Black, 89 251 (18.2%) Hispanic, and 267 452 (54.4%) White youth. Between 2016 and 2020, pooled all-cause mortality rates were 48.79 per 100 000 (95% CI, 46.58-51.00) in American Indian or Alaska Native youth, 15.25 per 100 000 (95% CI, 14.75-15.76) in Asian or Pacific Islander youth, 42.33 per 100 000 (95% CI, 41.81-42.86) in Black youth, 21.48 per 100 000 (95% CI, 21.19-21.77) in Hispanic youth, and 24.07 per 100 000 (95% CI, 23.86-24.28) in White youth. All-cause mortality ratios compared with White youth were 2.03 (95% CI, 1.93-2.12) among American Indian or Alaska Native youth, 0.63 (95% CI, 0.61-0.66) among Asian or Pacific Islander youth, 1.76 (95% CI, 1.73-1.79) among Black youth, and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88-0.91) among Hispanic youth. From 2016 to 2020, the homicide rate in Black youth was 12.81 (95% CI, 12.52-13.10) per 100 000, which was 10.20 (95% CI, 9.75-10.66) times that of White youth. The suicide rate for American Indian or Alaska Native youth was 11.37 (95% CI, 10.30-12.43) per 100 000, which was 2.60 (95% CI, 2.35-2.86) times that of White youth. The firearm mortality rate for Black youth was 12.88 (95% CI, 12.59-13.17) per 100 000, which was 4.14 (95% CI, 4.00-4.28) times that of White youth. American Indian or Alaska Native youth had a firearm mortality rate of 6.67 (95% CI, 5.85-7.49) per 100 000, which was 2.14 (95% CI, 1.88- 2.43) times that of White youth. Black youth had an asthma mortality rate of 1.10 (95% CI, 1.01-1.18) per 100 000, which was 7.80 (95% CI, 6.78-8.99) times that of White youth. In this study, racial and ethnic disparities were observed for almost all leading causes of injury and disease that were associated with recent increases in youth mortality rates. Addressing the increasing disparities affecting American Indian or Alaska Native and Black youth will require efforts to prevent homicide and suicide, especially those events involving firearms.

Disparities in Multiple Myeloma Mortality Rate Trends by Demographic Status in the USA.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy that arises when plasma cells undergo malignant monoclonal proliferation. This study aimed to assess the demographic disparities and temporal trends in the mortality rates of this disease. We employed the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. We found that for the overall U.S. population, the age-adjusted mortality rate per 1,000,000 (AAMR) decreased from 1999 to 2020. However, rates differed between demographic groups. In addition, we sought to find a significant average annual percent change (AAPC) in mortality rate from 1999 to 2020 for various demographic populations and compared groups to find disparities in mortality rate trend. In 2020, the AAMR due to MM was 38.0 and for women 24.1. The AAPC in AAMR from 1999 to 2020 in men was -1.0% (95%CI=-1.3 to -0.7) and in women was -1.6% (95%CI=-1.6 to -2.3). A significant difference in trend by sex was found, where women had a higher rate of decline. In 2020, the AAMR for the American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) population was 15.0, the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) had 14.8, the Black and African American population had an AAMR of 55.6 and the White population had an AAMR of 28.1. The AAPC for the AI/AN population was -2.2% (95%CI=-3.5 to -0.9), for the AAPI population it was -0.9% (95%CI=-1.5 to -0.4), the Black and African American population had -1.5% (95%CI=-2.2 to -0.8) and the AAPC for the White population was -1.1% (95%CI=-1.6 to -0.6). A significant difference in trend of decline was found between the AAPI and Black and African American populations and between the AI/AN and Black and African American populations. When assessing the U.S. by states, the mid-southeast U.S. had the greatest density of the states with high AAMRs. These findings suggest which populations are at increased risk for mortality due to multiple myeloma and where we should apply additional resources and research.

Maternal health in cities: analysis of institutional maternal mortality and health system bottlenecks in Kampala City Uganda, 2016-2021

Background Recent estimates have shown a stagnation in maternal mortality reduction globally. Levels and trends in maternal mortality in urban settings in Africa are of interest due to health system challenges posed by rapid urbanisation. Given the high percentage of births occurring in city health facilities, tracking the institutional maternal mortality ratio (IMMR) can reveal key performance issues. We described the trends in IMMR between 2016 and 2021, and the causes and characteristics of maternal deaths in Kampala, Uganda. Methods This retrospective study utilised routine data from all facilities in Kampala that provided childbirth services from 2016 to 2021. Three key variables were used: number of deliveries, live births, and maternal deaths. Additionally, from medical records in three purposively selected hospitals, we extracted information on characteristics of women recorded as maternal deaths and their causes for the period 2016-2021 from death notification and review forms. We conducted descriptive analysis and assessed time trends in IMMR. Results For the six-year period, the Kampala-level IMMR was 189/100,000 deliveries (194/100,000 livebirths). The IMMR declined from 213 (2016) to 109/100,000 deliveries in 2019 (p=0.04) and then increased to 258 in 2021 (p=0.12). A review of 358 maternal death records showed that 65% of deaths were women referred from other health facilities, and 47% lived in the surrounding district (Wakiso). Obstetric haemorrhage (44%) and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (28%) were the most commonly recorded causes of death. Health system factors such as lack of blood and other supplies contributed to 65% of the deaths reviewed. Conclusions IMMR in Kampala increased from 2019-2021. Health infrastructure changes and maternal health initiatives potentially accounted for the observed trend by affecting data quality. Referral and facility readiness were underlying reasons for maternal deaths. Addressing bottlenecks in emergency referral processes may contribute to mortality reduction. Further research should determine the relative contribution of key influences on mortality levels and examine the dynamics between women’s care-seeking pathways and service delivery arrangements for emergency obstetric care in urban settings.

Disparities in Trend of Renal Cell Carcinoma Mortality in the United States.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) accounts for 90% of malignant neoplasms of the kidney. In this report, the CDC WONDER database was accessed to retrieve age-adjusted mortality data from 1999 to 2020 due to RCC, defined as ICD-10 Code: C64 Malignant neoplasm of kidney except renal pelvis, for various demographics to investigate trends and potential disparities. In 2020, the overall age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) due to RCC in the USA was 42.4 per 1,000,000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) for the USA from 1999 to 2020 was -0.6%. Notably, in 2020, men had a higher AAMR than women, 63.9 compared to 25.7, and a significant difference in AAPC trend was identified between men (-0.5%) and women (-1.0%). When investigating trends according to race in 2020, the Asian population displayed the lowest AAMR at 18.9. When determining AAPC from 1999 to 2020 according to race group, the American Indian group demonstrated the greatest decline in AAPC at -1.3%, followed by the Black (-1.2%) and White populations (-0.5%). The Asian population did not exhibit a significant AAPC. Moreover, the rates between these three groups were statistically significantly different- indicating disparities in trend based on race. This investigation assesses the AAMR for different demographic groups of the USA population to identify disparities and guide resource allocation strategies.

Trends in prevalence, mortality, and risk factors of dementia among the oldest-old adults in the United States: the role of the obesity epidemic.

The oldest-old population, those aged ≥ 80years, is the fastest-growing group in the United States (US), grappling with an increasingly heavy burden of dementia. We aimed to dissect the trends in dementia prevalence, mortality, and risk factors, and predict future levels among this demographic. Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we examined the trends in dementia prevalence, mortality, and risk factors (with a particular focus on body mass index, BMI) for US oldest-old adults. Through decomposition analysis, we identified key population-level contributors to these trends. Predictive modeling was employed to estimate future prevalence and mortality levels over the next decade. Between 1990 and 2019, the number of dementia cases and deaths among the oldest-old in the US increased by approximately 1.37 million and 60,000 respectively. The population growth and aging were highlighted as the primary drivers of this increase. High BMI emerged as a growing risk factor. Females showed a disproportionately higher dementia burden, characterized by a unique risk factor profile, including BMI. Predictions for 2030 anticipate nearly 4 million dementia cases and 160,000 related deaths, with a marked increase in prevalence and mortality anticipated among those aged 80-89. The past 30years have witnessed a notable rise in both the prevalence and mortality of dementia among the oldest-old in the US, accompanied by a significant shift in risk factors, with obesity taking a forefront position. Targeted age and sex-specific public health strategies that address obesity control are needed to mitigate the dementia burden effectively.

Abstract PO4-16-08: Prognostic factors for tumor recurrence after breast-conserving and radiotherapy treatment for early invasive breast cancer: ten years of results in a referral center in Mexico City

Abstract Background: Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in the world, reporting more than 2 million new cases in 2020. In early stages, patients undergo primary surgery. Breast-conserving surgery (BCS) has generally been accepted as a treatment for invasive breast cancer, findings at 20 years still show that lumpectomy and breast irradiation, as compared with mastectomy, have no significant difference in overall survival among the treatment groups. Approximately 10-15% of patients will develop local or systemic recurrence in 5 to 10 years. Factors such as young age (&amp;lt; 45 years), close/positive margins, no breast radiation, are associated with ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence. High grade has been related to distant metastasis. The mortality trend is upward due to a higher incidence of the disease and earlier detection. Methods: This is an observational and retrospective cohort study, which included patients with early breast cancer, who were treated with conserving surgery and received radiotherapy, at the Breast Oncology Service at the UMAE Gineco 4 "Luis Castelazo Ayala" during the period from January 2012 to December 2022. The aim of our study was to describe the prognostic factors associated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with localized breast cancer treated with BCS. DFS was defined as time from surgery to recurrence event (local recurrence, distant recurrence, contralateral breast cancer, second primary cancer, or death from any cause) whichever occurred first. For statistical analysis, Kaplan Meier and Log-rank methods were used for survival analysis. Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis. Results: We included 399 patients, the median follow-up was 88 months (95%CI 86-91). Median age was 59 years. The most common pathological stage was IA in 44.9%, the predominant immunophenotype was luminal A in 56.1% of patients, follow by luminal B in 19.3% and 13% were triple negative. Management of axilla with sentinel node biopsy occurred in 50.1% and 49.9% underwent to lymph node dissection. Regarding surgery outcomes 40.4% of the patients required widening of the margins, 5% of the patients remained with close surgical margins ≤2 mm, 7.5% had complications associated with the surgery, and none related death ocurred. All patients received adjuvant radiotherapy, the median time to initiation was 32 weeks (range 3-70) and 65.4% received adjuvant chemotherapy. Recurrence events occurred in 15.5% of patients, local 2.8%, systemic 8.8%, contralateral breast cancer 1.7%, and second primary 2.2%. Estimated disease-free survival at 5 and 10 years were 86.6% and 74.2%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis independent prognostic factors for DFS were: lobular histology HR 2.95 (95%IC 1.5-5.7), tumor size ≥ 2cm HR 1.95 (95%IC 1.1-3.6), close surgical margins HR 2.62 (95%IC 1-6.6), and ER low expression (1-10%) HR 4.39 (95%CI: 1.6-12.4). Estimated OS at 5 and 10 years for patients who experienced recurrence were 78.4% and 47.4% and for patients without recurrence were 96.8% and 93.5%, respectively (adjusted HR: 10.4, 95%CI: 5.2-20.6). Conclusion: These results suggest that patients with early breast cancer treated with conserving surgery and radiotherapy with risk factors such as lobular carcinoma, tumor size ≥2cm, close margins, and low expression of estrogen receptors have a high risk of recurrence and significantly decreased overall survival at 5 and 10 years. Citation Format: Nayeli Ortega-Avila, Yuly A. Remolina-Bonilla, Janett Caballero-Jasso. Prognostic factors for tumor recurrence after breast-conserving and radiotherapy treatment for early invasive breast cancer: ten years of results in a referral center in Mexico City [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO4-16-08.

Abstract PO5-09-12: Unraveling the Intricacies of Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer in Brazil

Abstract Abstract Background: Over the past three decades, numerous countries have experienced a substantial decrease in breast cancer (BC) fatality, attributed to heightened consciousness, widened and earlier screening, and enhanced therapeutic interventions. However, these advancements have not eradicated the disparity in BC treatment across different racial and ethnic groups. In Brazil, the causes of these disparities are diverse and intricate, resembling health inequalities among ethnic communities observed in other countries. This study aimed to investigate the trends in BC incidence and mortality rates in Brazil, considering clinicopathological and sociodemographic variations, and placing particular emphasis on the severity of racial disparity concerning race/skin color. Patients and methods: Incidence trends for women with BC were analyzed using data from 13 Brazilian Population-Based Cancer Registries covering the period 2010-2015. Crude incidence ratios (CIRs) and the annual average percent change (AAPC) were calculated. Clinical and sociodemographic information from 348 Hospital-Based Cancer Registries spanning from 2000 to 2019 was also utilized. Meanwhile, mortality data for the years 2000-2020 were obtained from the National Mortality Information System. Racial and skin color data were collected through a self-declaration process, following the classification proposed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, which included categories such as white, black, and brown/mixed race. In the analysis, black and brown/mixed race categories were combined as black. Yellow and indigenous categories were excluded. Statistical significance was defined as a p-value less than 0.05. To determine clinically relevant differences, a threshold of more than 5% disparity in proportional values was used as an arbitrary criterion. Results: Between 2010 and 2015, a total of 70,896 newly diagnosed cases of BC were recorded. Mean CIRs were 83.9/100,000 for the overall population, 101.3/100,000 for white women, and 59.7/100,000 for black women. Neither the group of white women (AAPC -1.7; 95% CI: -7.9 to 4.9; p = 0.506) nor the group of black women (AAPC -0.4; 95% CI: -5.0 to 4.5; p = 0.831) exhibited any significant changes in the incidence rate. Black women predominantly originated from underdeveloped regions (56.4%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), were referred by the public healthcare system in Brazil (79.0%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), had ≤ 8 years of schooling (68.7%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), were unmarried (50.9%, p&amp;lt; 0.001), reported alcohol consumption (20.9%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), and were diagnosed with advanced stage disease (60.1%, p &amp;lt; 0.001). The escalation in mortality rates among black women exhibited a notable difference, amounting to 3.8 times the increase observed among white women (AAPC + 2.3; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.5; p &amp;lt; 0.001) (AAPC + 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5 to 0.7; p &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion: Despite the lower incidence of BC in black women compared to their white counterparts, there is a concerning rise in BC-related mortality rates among black women. This group exhibits a significantly unfavorable sociodemographic and clinicopathological profile. These results highlight the pressing need to address the multifaceted factors contributing to these disparities, encompassing socioeconomic disparities and unequal healthcare access. Keywords: Breast cancer; racial disparities; incidence; mortality. Citation Format: Jesse Lopes da Silva, Andreia Cristina De Melo, Mariana Espirito Santo Rodrigues, Lucas Zanetti de Albuquerque, Luiz Claudio Santos Thuler. Unraveling the Intricacies of Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer in Brazil [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO5-09-12.