Trends In Indicators Research Articles

Extreme Rainfall Analysis in Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil, Using a High‐Resolution Gridded Dataset

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a detailed spatio‐temporal analysis of the rainfall in the state of Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil. It is based on climate indices for extreme precipitation recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices. To accomplish this, daily rainfall 1data (1961–2019) were extracted from 809 high‐resolution grid points (0.1° × 0.1°) using the Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR‐DWGD). The significance and magnitude of index trends were assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests. This study also examined whether there existed a significant difference in climate indices among the three regions (Sertão, Agreste and Zona da Mata) within the state. The findings revealed notable significant negative trends in the PRCPTOT, R10mm, R20mm, Rx1day, Rx5day and CWD indices across all regions of Pernambuco, exhibiting a gradient from the coast to the state's interior. Reduction values of up to 15 mm year−1 for PRCPTOT, 0.7 day year−1 for R10mm, 0.2 day year−1 for R20mm, 0.01 mm year−1 for Rx1day, 0.03 mm year−1 for Rx5day, 0.4 day year−1 for CWD were observed. Furthermore, an alarming pattern was also noted for CDD, displaying a higher concentration of significant positive trends in all regions of the state, with estimated increases of up to 1.4 day year−1. Conversely, a balance of trends—both positive and negative—was observed across the entire state for R95p and R99p, with a majority of trends proving non‐significant. SDII exhibited a higher frequency of grid points showing a significant positive trend, particularly notable in the Sertão and Zona da Mata regions, where significant differences in the index values were absent. However, the remaining indices showcased notable regional differences, with values decreasing from the east to the west of the state, except for CDD. This study will assist decision makers, providing detailed long‐term information essential for preventing natural disasters and supporting socioeconomic and environmental policies in the state.

The Impact of Drought on Vegetation at Basin Scale: A Case Study of the Wei River Basin, China

Droughts in the Weihe River Basin are occurring more frequently and are becoming more intense. These events negatively affect industrial production, economic development, and ecosystems. Studying how vegetation changes in response to them is of practical significance. We report temporal and spatial trends in vegetation cover, use a copula function to analyze relationships between drought and vegetation cover, and assess the probability of vegetation loss in different drought scenarios. A vegetation index trends upwards from north to south in this basin; from 2001 to 2017, vegetation cover also trends upward in most areas, although it decreases in areas with high vegetation cover. An escalated susceptibility to drought has been observed in the southern and eastern sectors, where proximity to the riverbank correlates with heightened drought sensitivity, particularly in zones of intensified vegetation density. The probability of vegetation loss at the same vegetation loss preset point gradually increases with increased drought severity. These results will facilitate the formulation of countermeasures to prevent and combat the effects of drought on vegetation and land management.

Google Earth Engine application for mapping and monitoring drought patterns and trends: A case study in Arkansas, USA

Drought is a prolonged dry period that can have severe impacts on the environment, human health, economies, agriculture, and energy resources. It can lead to water shortages, ruin crops, dry out forests, and reduce the availability of food and water for wildlife and livestock. The primary objectives of this study are to: 1) quantify the variability and distributions of drought patterns in Arkansas, United States (US), 2) use remotely sensed indices to investigate the correlation between drought and vegetation cover in the area, and 3) develop a cloud-based framework (user-friendly app) to facilitate the assessment of drought impact in Arkansas over the past decades. A correlation analysis was also performed between the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and meteorological indices to better understand the impact of meteorological drought on vegetation stress. In addition, Mann-Kendall trend analysis was used to assess trends in meteorological drought indices. The results indicate that drought is most prevalent during March and August months. The results of this study revealed that approximately 31% of the study area fell under the four drought classes (i.e., 1% Extreme drought, 4% Severe drought, 9% moderate drought, and 19% mild drought), with spring and the growing season experiencing moderate drought, particularly in agricultural areas, most notably within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley Plain at both state and county levels. In August, approximately 31% of the study area fell under the Four drought classes (i.e., 1% Extreme drought, 4% Severe drought, 9% moderate drought, and 19% mild drought), with spring and the growing season experiencing moderate drought, particularly in agricultural areas, most notably within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley Plain at both state and county levels. This study provides an essential foundation for policymakers, environmental scientists, and agricultural stakeholders aiming to mitigate drought impacts and safeguard against future climate uncertainties.

Impact of CFTR modulatory therapies on liver function and fibrosis indices in cystic fibrosis patients: a retrospective analysis from two Romanian medical centers

Background. Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) frequently require modulatory therapies such as Lumacaftor/Ivacaftor (LI) and Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor (ETI) to manage their condition. Given the potential hepatic complications associated with CF, it is critical to understand the impact of these therapies on liver function and fibrosis indices. This study aimed to evaluate the changes in liver function markers and fibrosis indices in CF patients undergoing LI and ETI therapies, with a specific focus on the influence of underlying hepatic disease. Methods. In this retrospective analysis, liver function markers and fibrosis indices were assessed in CF patients receiving ETI (n=24), LI (n=4), or a combination of both (LI/ETI, n=8). Key liver function markers, including alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), bilirubin, platelet count, and fibrosis indices (APRI and FIB-4), were measured at baseline and at various time points up to 12 months. Results. In patients receiving LI therapy, ALT and AST levels demonstrated a slight but non-significant decrease over six months, accompanied by significant fluctuations in total bilirubin levels. Among those receiving ETI therapy, ALT and AST levels initially increased but stabilized over time, while total bilirubin levels significantly increased from baseline to 12 months. No significant differences were observed in liver function markers between patients with and without hepatic disease under ETI therapy. Trends in fibrosis indices (APRI and FIB-4) were modest and largely non-significant across both therapies. Conclusions. ETI therapy appears to be safe for CF patients, including those with pre-existing hepatic disease, with no significant deterioration in liver function over a 12-month period. However, the observed fluctuations in bilirubin levels underscore the necessity for ongoing monitoring. Further research is warranted to investigate the long-term hepatic effects of LI and ETI therapies.

The burden, trends, and projections of low back pain attributable to high body mass index globally: an analysis of the global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050.

To systematically evaluate the global burden and trends of low back pain(LBP) associated with high Body Mass Index (BMI) and project future trends up to 2050 using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, providing scientific evidence for prioritizing global preventive actions. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, this research analyzes the disease burden of low back pain linked to high BMI globally, with Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) as the primary metric. We examined trends by gender, age, and exposure rate using Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and projected future trends with the BAPC model. In 2021, high BMI-related low back pain accounted for 8,363,759 DALYs, with an age-standardized rate of 97.66 per 100,000 population and an EAPC of 1.14. The DALYs rate varied significantly by country, with the United States, Australia, and Eastern Europe experiencing the highest rates, all exceeding 225 per 100,000 population. The burden has increased globally, with notable rises in China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa, where EAPCs surpassed 2.5. Regions with medium and high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) showed the most substantial increases, with the DALY rate in high SDI areas rising from 118.84 to 161.80 per 100,000, and in medium SDI areas from 41.92 to 79.10 per 100,000. Throughout the period from 1990 to 2021, females consistently experienced a higher burden of high BMI-related low back pain than males, with their DALY rate increasing from 92.01 to 126.29 per 100,000. The impact of high BMI on low back pain intensified with age, peaking in the 70-74 age group at 294.13 per 100,000, and then declining to 196.43 per 100,000 in those aged 95 and above. The BAPC model projects that by 2050, the number of DALYs will reach 15,558,278, an increase of 7,806,121 from 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of low back pain attributable to high BMI has intensified, particularly affecting females, younger elderly, and developed regions. With increasing global aging and obesity rates, the burden is expected to continue rising rapidly without sustained and effective targeted interventions.

Global warming induced spread of the highest human fascioliasis hyperendemic area

BackgroundClimate change is driving the occurrence of several infectious diseases. Within a One Health action to complement the ongoing preventive chemotherapy initiative against human fascioliasis in the Northern Bolivian Altiplano hyperendemic area, field surveys showed a geographical expansion of its lymnaeid snail vector. To assess whether climate change underlies this spread of the infection risk area, an in-depth analysis of the long-term evolution of climatic factors relevant for Fasciola hepatica development was imperative.MethodsWe used monthly climatic data covering at least a 30-year period and applied two climatic risk indices, the water-budget-based system and the wet–day index, both of verified usefulness for forecasting fascioliasis transmission in this endemic area. To reveal the long-term trends of the climatic factors and forecast indices, we applied procedures of seasonal-trend decomposition based on locally weighed regression and trend analysis on the basis of linear models. To further demonstrate the changes detected, we depicted selected variables in the form of anomalies.ResultsThis study revealed a notorious climatic change affecting most of the hyperendemic area, with a strong impact on crucial aspects of the fascioliasis transmission. Trends in maximum and mean temperatures show significant increases throughout the endemic area, while trends in minimum temperatures are more variable. Precipitation annual trends are negative in most of the localities. Trends in climatic risk indices show negative trends at lower altitudes or when farther from the eastern Andean chain. However, monthly and yearly values of climatic risk indices indicate a permanent transmission feasibility in almost every location.ConclusionsWarmer temperatures have enabled lymnaeids to colonize formerly unsuitable higher altitudes, outside the endemicity area verified in the 1990s. Further, drier conditions might lead to an overexploitation of permanent water collections where lymnaeids inhabit, favoring fascioliasis transmission. Therefore, the present preventive chemotherapy by annual mass treatments is in need to widen the area of implementation. This study emphasizes the convenience for continuous monitoring of nearby zones for quick reaction and appropriate action modification.Graphical

Outcomes of Laparoscopic versus Robotic-Assisted Sacrocolpopexy for Pelvic Organ Prolapse-A Comprehensive Retrospective Analysis.

Minimally invasive abdominal sacrocolpopexy (SC) is the gold standard for managing symptomatic pelvic organ prolapse (POP). Robot-assisted laparoscopy (RSC) offers a promising surgical option compared to conventional laparoscopy (LSC). This study compares the clinical and operative outcomes of these techniques to determine if RSC is superior to LSC. We conducted a retrospective, single-center study in the Gynecology Department at the Citadelle Hospital in Liège, Belgium. Data from all patients who underwent SC between January 2019 and December 2023 were collected. We evaluated demographic and clinical data, perioperative complications, operative time (OT), length of stay, risk of recurrence and follow-up duration. Statistical analysis was performed to compare outcomes between the groups. Data from 208 patients (97 LSC and 111 RSC) were analyzed. No significant differences were found between the groups. A higher body mass index trend was observed in the RSC group (mean BMI: 26.63, range: 20-43) compared to the LSC group (mean BMI: 25.45, range: 15-34; p = 0.0625). The median OT was similar (LSC: 111min vs RSC 119min; p = 0.104), with a notable reduction in OT compared to the literature. Additionally, more RSC procedures could be performed per day (3 RSC vs. a maximum of 2 for LSC). Robot-assisted laparoscopy was not demonstrated to be superior to LSC. However, both procedures had comparable OT, significantly shorter than previously reported. RSC's operational efficiency might allow for a higher number of daily procedures, translating into practical benefits in clinical settings.

The functional activity of the brain in patients with occupational chronic mercury intoxication against background of the treatment of insomnia disorders

Introduction. In patients with chronic mercury intoxication, insomnia disorders are much more common than in the general population. Persistent emotional disorders in combination with severe sleep disturbances may contribute to the progression of cognitive dysfunction in patients in the late post-exposure period of chronic mercury intoxication. The purpose of the study was to analyze the trend in electroencephalography indices and study cognitive evoked potentials in patients with occupational chronic mercury intoxication to optimize the treatment of insomnia. Materials and methods. Two groups of 30 patients with occupational chronic mercury intoxication, who worked at the enterprises of Usolyekhimprom LLC and Sayanskhimplast OJSC, were examined. In the first group of patients received the first treatment option, the average age was 56±0.71 years, in the second group, cases received the second treatment regimen, were of 57.1±3 years. Before and after treatment, there were carried out neurophysiological studies including polysomnography, electroencephalography, and a study of cognitive evoked potentials P300. Results. After the implementation of the treatment regimen in the first group, positive changes in the main indices of polysomnography were revealed as follows: decrease in the time of falling asleep and time of wakefulness in the bed, increase in total sleep time and the representation of delta sleep, increase in the sleep efficiency index, etc., electroencephalography (decrease in the delta index – rhythm and an increase in the alpha rhythm index), and cognitive evoked potentials (decreased latency and increased P300 amplitude). In the second group, there were registered positive alterations only in three neurophysiological indices: a decrease in the latent period of the 1st stage of sleep, a decline in the delta rhythm index and a fall in P300 latency. Limitations. The results cannot be generalized to workers as the group included only men. Conclusion. According to neurophysiological studies, improvement in polysomnography parameters during the treatment of insomnia in patients in the late post-contact period of chronic mercury intoxication was accompanied by an improvement in concentration and an increase in the rate of psychomotor response.

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U99). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms−1 °C−1. While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

The trend of atherogenic indices in patients with type 2 diabetes after bariatric surgery: a national cohort study

BackgroundBariatric surgery has profound effects on weight loss, metabolic regulation, and gut hormone modulation, which make it an efficient tool for managing obesity and improving diabetes outcomes. ObjectivesThe objective of this study is to evaluate the atherogenic indices, including atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), atherogenic coefficient (AC), Castelli’s risk index II (CRI-II), and lipoprotein combine index (LCI) in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) living with excess weight, who have undergone bariatric surgery. SettingThree types of surgery including one-anastomosis gastric bypass/mini gastric bypass (OAGB/MGB), sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) were performed on patients with obesity and T2D in the period of August 2009 to February 2021, and the patients were followed up for 2years in 5 different visits at baseline (preoperative), 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months after the surgery. MethodsIn this retrospective cohort, 1246 individuals with obesity and T2D who underwent 3 types of bariatric surgery including RYGB, SG, and OAGB/MGB were studied for 2years after the surgery; the data were derived from the National Iranian Obesity Surgery Database. Afterward, the trend of biochemical parameters, total weight loss (TWL%), and atherogenesis-related indices were evaluated from baseline up to 2years in 5 follow-up visits. ResultsA total of 1246 patients with T2D and obesity who underwent bariatric surgery were included in this study. The trend of all atherogenesis-related indices, including AIP, LCI, CRI-II, and AC, showed a significant reduction (49.2%, 53.4%, 20.8%, 22%, respectively) 2years after the bariatric surgery (P < .05). In the 6-month follow-up, 1-year follow-up, and 2-year follow-up, 1023 (83.10%), 719 (57.70%), and 341 (27.36%) individuals participated, respectively. In addition, a significant increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels was observed 2years after the surgery in both sexes (P < .05). ConclusionsThe bariatric surgery significantly reduced the levels of atherogenic indices including AIP, CRI-II, LCI, and AC.

Trends in Ionospheric Solar Activity Indices

Trends in Ionospheric Solar Activity Indices

Trends of Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Indices for Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia

The extreme temperature and precipitation index trend analysis for Addis Ababa city is presented in this study. The Bole and Tikur Anbesa observatories, two stations in the capital city of Addis Ababa, provide the temperature and rainfall variation used in this analysis. The RClim-Dex software has been used to find climate extreme indices for Addis Ababa city stations based on climate data for the period 1954 to 2019. The annual total precipitation trend (PRCPTOT) at the 5% significant level exhibits a positive slope at the Addis Ababa observatory and a negative slope at the Addis Ababa Bole station. SDII trends indicate an increase at the 5% significant threshold for both stations. At the 5% significance level, the trends for both stations’ maximum and lowest temperatures show a positive slope. Conversely, both stations exhibit a negative slope in the diurnal temperature ranges. The RClim-Dex results indicate that, while rainfall intensity is decreasing, there is a tendency for annual rainfall indices to increase at the Addis Ababa observatory station, but to decrease at the Bole station. Additionally, there is an upward slope for consecutive wet days for all stations. Nevertheless, steady warming patterns are evident for both the maximum and minimum temperature indices. In contrast, declining trends are shown in the diurnal temperature ranges.

Comparative analysis of SPI and SPEI drought indices for Montenegro and the impact of teleconnections

ABSTRACT After 2000, Montenegro has been hit by several severe droughts. The results presented in this study were based on the analysis of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the period 1961–2020. They showed the prevalence of a negative trend in both indices and a significantly higher frequency of drought in the second half of the observed period (1991–2020). The SPEI index is a more representative indicator of drought, because in addition to precipitation, it also takes into account potential evapotranspiration. Using the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method, it was determined that the tipping point when the SPEI suddenly fell was the mid-1980s. Out of the 15 analyzed teleconnection variation indicators (atmospheric and oceanic oscillations), 11 oscillations have a significant impact on one or more of the 24 analyzed SPEI time series. The consequences of the drought in Montenegro, as part of the Mediterranean, are most noticeable in the summer, primarily in the form of water shortages, dried vegetation, and frequent fires. Decision-makers in Montenegro should pay attention to this extreme, as drought could pose a serious problem under the projected warmer climate conditions.

Low rigidity despite high asphaltene content in bitumen: The role of resins

This research presents a laboratory study on three different bitumens, chosen as representative, coming from three different oils with different origins (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia) for assessing their structural differences due their different origins. The three bitumens have penetration indexes of 160/220, 70/100, 70/100 respectively, whereas their S.A.R.A. compositions showed marked differences particularly in the asphaltene and resin content, being the bitumen from Saudi Arabia particularly rich in such fractions, and that from Venezuela possessing the lower content of these. Rheological characterization carried out as a function of frequency and temperature suggests that: (i) the modulus at an angular frequency of 1 rad/s takes the lowest value for sample from Saudi Arabia, in accordance with the penetration index trend of the samples (ii) from a microscopic point of view, the average number of first neighbors involved in the flowing process is around one. Further analysis involved the extraction of the asphaltenic fraction according to the standard ASTM D4124 procedure: the melting point of the asphaltene fraction is 175 and 195 °C for the samples from Venezuela and Russia, respectively, while it can hardly be detected for the sample from Saudi Arabia. This anomalous behavior has been interpreted with the aid of X-Ray scattering data, which highlighted a lower order in asphaltene assembly at higher level of aggregation, which means that asphaltene molecules are arranged to form local assemblies with structural well-defined order only at short range, being higher levels of aggregations more disordered. All the data self-consistently show that the bitumen from Saudi Arabia, thanks to a higher content of resins, can stabilize more efficiently aphaltenes and therefore the latter can form ordered stacks only ad short range (only few Angstroms), leaving a more amorphous structure at longer ranges with consequently higher penetration index and lower modulus.

Craniofacial Measurements and Indices Trends in Latvian Children Aged 1-15.

This study aimed to assess the trends in craniofacial measurements and indices in Latvian children aged 1-15. The anthropometrical measurements (head circumference, length, width, facial length, and width) were conducted on 375 children according to the guidelines by R. Martin, K. Saller, and J. Prīmanis at the Anthropology laboratory at the Institute of Anatomy and Anthropology, Rīga Stradiņš University. The cephalic index (CI) and the facial or prosopic index (PI) were calculated, allowing for a detailed examination of cranial and facial proportions. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, including the Pearson Chi-square test and the Spearman correlation coefficient. The findings revealed a consistent increase in head circumference with age, with boys generally having slightly larger heads than girls. The boys and girls exhibited growth in head length and width, particularly noticeable between 1 and 2 years of age. Facial length and width increased with age, with boys typically having longer facial lengths and broader faces than girls. The most common cephalic index category is mesocephaly, which accounts for 52.85% of the population, followed by dolichocephaly at 32.94%. Brachycephaly and hyperbrachycephaly are less prevalent, representing 11.36% and 2.86% of the population. Regarding the facial index categories, hypereuryprosopic is the most prevalent, representing 45.54% of the population, closely followed by euryprosopic at 43.74%. Mesoprosopic is significantly less common, representing only 9.95%. The least common categories are leptoprosopic and hyperleptoprosopic, with prevalences of 0.64% and 0.12%, respectively. The indices analysis showed variations across age groups, with dolichocephaly being more common at younger ages and decreasing over time. Brachycephaly and hyperbrachycephaly remained relatively stable or decreased slightly with age, while mesocephaly displayed less variation. The relationship between the FI and CI in younger age groups was typically weak to moderate and inverse, with a significance level of p < 0.001 or p < 0.01. However, no meaningful correlation was observed in older children aged 14-15. This study provides valuable insights into the craniofacial development of Latvian children, highlighting the measurements, cranial and facial types, and their variations across age groups.

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Extreme Climate Indices in the Songnen Plain and Its Impact on Maize Yield

Global climate change is intensifying and extreme weather events are occurring frequently, with far-reaching impacts on agricultural production. The Songnen Plain, as an important maize production region in China, faces challenges posed by climate change. This study aims to explore the effects of climate extremes on maize yield and provide a scientific basis for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change in this region. The study focuses on the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of climate extremes during the maize reproductive period from 1988 to 2020 in the Songnen Plain and their impacts on maize yield. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 11 meteorological stations were selected and combined with maize yield information to assess the spatial and temporal trends of extreme climate indices using statistical methods such as the moving average and Mann–Kendall (M-K) mutation test. Pearson correlation analysis and a random forest algorithm were also used to quantify the degree of influence of extreme climate on maize yield. The results showed that (1) the extreme heat and humidity indices (TN90p, TX90p, CWD, R95p, R10, and SDII) tended to increase, while the cold indices (TN10p, TX10p) and the drought indices (CDD) showed a decreasing trend, suggesting that the climate of the Songnen Plain region tends to be warmer and more humid. (2) The cold indices in the extreme temperature indices showed a spatial pattern of being higher in the north and lower in the south and lower in the west and higher in the east, while the warm indices were the opposite, and the extreme precipitation indices showed a spatial pattern of being higher in the east and lower in the west. (3). Both maize yield and trend yield showed a significant upward trend. Maize meteorological yield showed a fluctuating downward trend within the range of −1.64~0.79 t/hm2. During the 33 years, there were three climatic abundance years, two climatic failure years, and the rest of the years were normal years. (4) The cold index TN10p and warm indices TN90p and CWD were significantly correlated with maize yield, in which TN90p had the highest degree of positive correlation with yield, and in the comprehensive analysis, the importance of extreme climatic events on maize yield was in the order of TN90p, TN10p, and CWD. This study demonstrates the impact of extreme climate indices on maize yield in the Songnen Plain, providing a scientific basis for local agricultural management and decision-making, helping to formulate response strategies to mitigate the negative effects of extreme climate, ensure food security, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

Temporal trends of seasonal pollen indexes in a region of Northern Italy (2001–2022)

Increasing trends in allergic respiratory diseases may be linked to climate changes affecting pollen levels. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trends in seasonal indexes of 9 allergenic pollen types in the Veneto Region, Northern Italy. Available daily data from 20 monitoring stations covered 2001–2022 for Corylaceae, Cupressaceae, Poaceae, Oleaceae, and Urticaceae (pollen families), and 2006–2022 for Alnus, Betula, Ambrosia, and Artemisia (pollen genera). The 95-percentage method was used to identify the start/end dates of pollen seasons annually, and the seasonal cumulative pollen concentration (Seasonal Pollen Integral, SPIn) was calculated. The non-parametric Theil-Sen median slope method was used to examine trends in pollen seasons’ start day, duration, and SPIn in the whole region and for climatic areas (alpine, subcontinental eastern, subcontinental western). The results showed a clear upward trend in SPIn for several pollens, with median slopes ranging from 326 (Alnus) to 1089 p/m3 per 10yrs (Corylaceae); exceptions were Artemisia, whose SPIn decreased over time (−26 p/m3 per 10yrs), and Ambrosia, Betula, and Urticaceae, which did not show a clear trend. For families, pollen seasons showed a trend for anticipation (from −4.7, Urticaceae, to −13.5 days/10yrs, Oleaceae) and extended duration (from 8.3, Cupressaceae, to 13.3 days/10yrs, Oleaceae). An evident heterogeneity across the climatic areas was seen for the SPIn, with the subcontinental western area exhibiting the highest loads and most prominent increases over time. In conclusion, increased levels and prolonged seasons for several pollen taxa observed in the Veneto Region, particularly in subcontinental areas, suggest increasing risks for individuals with pollen allergies. Addressing this issue requires measures of mitigation and adaptation to climate-driven changes in pollen exposure.

Spatial and temporal analysis and trends of extreme precipitation over the Mississippi River Basin, USA during 1988–2017

Study regionMississippi River Basin. Study focusUsing daily precipitation records of 769 meteorological stations over the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the spatial-temporal variability and trend of nine extreme precipitation indices were estimated and statistically assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Factors likely to influence the spatial pattern and trends of precipitation extremes indices were also checked. New hydrological insights for the regionThe spatial pattern of the extreme precipitation indices exhibits a southeast to Northwest dipole, with the maximum values recorded over the southeastern part of the domain (exception being for Consecutive Dry Days, CDD which shows otherwise) driven by the southerly moisture transport toward the southeast. The spatial pattern of the extreme precipitation is controlled by the topography. The results also show that, on average, almost all the indices (except CDD) exhibit an increasing trend. The total wet day precipitation exhibits a significant increasing trend. Spatially, most of the significant increasing (decreasing) trends of the extreme's precipitation-except CDD- are located over the Upper (South) MRB where there is a significant sign toward cooling (warming) conditions. This supports the view that changing climate towards warming (cooling) conditions is significantly affecting precipitations extremes over the MRB. The relationships between large-scale teleconnections and extreme precipitation show that Pacific North America significantly increases (decreases) frequency and intensity indices over the Northwest (southeast) MRB, whereas the Pacific Decadal Oscillation does increase the frequency and intensity indices over the southeast. El Niño Southern Oscillation significantly increases the frequency and intensity indices over the entire MRB, with consequences to infrastructure failures, increasing vulnerable populations, risk zones and relocations populations.

Financial Markets Integration and the Consequences for Financial Stability

Financial integration, as part of the financial market union, implies closer interaction between global economies. The positive contribution of digitization can be found in the specialized literature, but it fails to provide an overview of the link between financial intermediation indicators and the use of digitization, taking into account the impact on the individual. In this sense, the motivation of this research consists in emphasizing therole of digital financial services in reducing poverty, having a beneficial impact on economic development and the economy welfare.The study relevance resides in capturing the Global Findex Index trend, by measuring the use of financial services every 3 years, starting in 2011. As a result, the research aims to analyze the financial intermediation degree, and, implicitly, digitization, based on a survey of 140 economies, using a Vector Autoregressive model, impulse response functions and the variance decomposition of the included macroeconomic variables.The research resultssummarize the fintech contribution in diminishingthe financial instability risks and outlining the policy implications for governments, benefits such as money laundering and reducing corruption.

Trends in Body Mass Index Among Individuals With Neurodevelopmental Disorders

Neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are increasingly common. Individuals with NDDs have heightened obesity risks, but long-term data on body mass index (BMI) trends over time in this population are lacking. To assess secular BMI changes from 2004 to 2020 among children with NDDs compared with those without NDDs. This repeated cross-sectional study used data from the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden. Children born between January 1, 1992, and December 31, 2010, were screened for neurodevelopmental symptoms using the Autism-Tics, ADHD, and Other Comorbidities inventory between July 2004 and April 2020 when they were 9 or 12 years of age. Data analysis was conducted between September 27, 2023, and January 30, 2024. BMI percentiles (15th, 50th, and 85th) were modeled using quantile regression and compared between youths with and without NDDs. Secular changes in BMI percentiles over time spanning 2004 to 2020 were evaluated and stratified by NDD subtype. The cohort included 24 969 Swedish twins (12 681 [51%] boys) born between 1992 and 2010, with mean (SD) age of 9 (0.6) years. Of these, 1103 (4%) screened positive for 1 or more NDDs, including ADHD, ASD, and/or learning disability. Results indicated that at the 85th BMI percentile, there was a greater increase in BMI from 2004 to 2020 among youths with NDDs compared with those without NDDs (β for interaction [βint] between NDD status and time, 1.67; 95% CI, 0.39-2.90). The greatest divergence was seen for ASD (βint, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.26-3.70) and learning disability (βint, 1.92; 95% CI, 0.65-3.82). Within the latest cohort (2016-2020), the 85th BMI percentile was 1.99 (95% CI, 1.08-2.89) points higher among children with NDDs compared with those without NDDs. In this repeated cross-sectional study, at the higher end of the BMI distribution, children with NDDs had significantly greater increases in BMI compared with peers without NDDs over a 16-year period, highlighting an increasing risk of overweight over time in youths with NDDs compared with those without NDDs. Targeted obesity prevention efforts for this high-risk population are needed.