Trend Growth Rate Research Articles

Exports Trends by Major Ports⋅Airports and Future Development Direction

The purpose of this study is to examine the trend of export growth rate and rate of change by each port/airport in Korea. And to analyze which each port/airport are showing a high growth rate. To this end, Incheon Airport, Busan, Incheon, Ulsan, Gwangyang and Pyeongtaek were selected in order of export value. The analysis period for each port/airport was 200 monthly data from September 2001 to April 2018. Pyeongtaek, Incheon and Gwangyang are relatively larger than Busan and Ulsan in the rate of increase and change. This is because export to China and Southeast Asia has increased more than in the US and Japan. As a result of the analysis, exports from Busan, Incheon Airport and Ulsan have recently been shifted to Incheon Airport, Incheon, Gwangyang and Pyeongtaek. In addition, the export portion of Incheon International Airport, which is an aviation logistics service, is growing more and more. In the west coast era, interest and investment in Incheon, Pyeongtaek and Gwangyang seem to be more needed in preparation for import and export to China, Southeast Asia and North Korea.

ЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ УРОВНЯ РАСПРОСТРАНЁННОСТИ И ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ЦЕРЕБРОВАСКУЛЯРНЫМИ БОЛЕЗНЯМИ В КЫРГЫЗСКОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКЕ

Objective: Assessing the dynamics of the long-term trend of prevalence and primary incidence of cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) among different populations of the Kyrgyz Republic (KR). Methods: The main source of information for assessing the incidence of the population of CVD was data from the National Medical Information Center (NMIC) of the Ministry of Healthcare. Retrospective epidemiological study of the prevalence and primary incidence of CVD in the long-term dynamics of 2002-2017 was conducted. Calculated the growth rate (reduction) using the method of the smallest squares to align the dynamic series; a comparative analysis of morbidity rates in groups of age groups and in the context of nine administrative and territorial units of the KR with the calculation of the average multi-year incidence levels (AMIL). Results: In the long-term dynamics (from 2002 to 2017) there is a moderate trend towards an increase in prevalence rates (the rate of growth compared to 2002 was 1.3%) and AMIL 843.9. Among strokes that determine the incidence of CVD, ischemic stroke (60.8%) has the highest proportion. In the long-term dynamics, there is a pronounced tendency to increase unspecified strokes (the growth rate was 10.3%), AMIL incidence – 23.0±2,80/0000. There is a marked upward trend in the incidence of the disease of the studied pathology among children (the rate of increase was 47%). In the 9 administrative territories of the KR there is a fairly strong difference between the AMIL and the CVD among the child population, ranging from 1.00/0000 to 20.90/0000 cases, i.e. territorial differences reach up to 20.9 times; adults and adolescents – from 211.10/0000 to 3127.80/0000 (differences up to 14.8 times). Of the nine administrative territories of the KR, the largest proportion of AMIL morbidity among adults and adolescents is observed in Bishkek, and among children – in the Osh region. AMIL prevalence and primary incidence of strokes in men are statistically, significantly higher than in women. In the long-term dynamics, there is an increase in mortality rates from ischemic strokes with a rate of increase compared to 2002 year – 37.5%, along with a decrease in mortality from hemorrhagic and unspecified strokes. The largest proportion of CVD cases over the past year (2017) is over the age of 70 (32%). Conclusion: The actuality of the problem of CVD in the KR is due to a moderate trend of growth rates of prevalence with the highest proportion of ischemic stroke. The expressed growth trend is caused by unspecified strokes. The largest proportion of AMIL morbidity of adult and adolescent CVD is observed in Bishkek, and among children – in the Osh region. Strokes are more common in males. Keywords: Cerebrovascular diseases, epidemiological analysis, stroke, long-term dynamics.

English

English

Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

We investigate the evidence for structural breaks in the parameters of autoregressive models of U.S. post-war macroeconomic time series. There is substantial model uncertainty associated with such models, including uncertainty related to lag selection, the number of structural changes, and the specific parameters that change at each break date. We develop a feasible approach to Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), where the model space encompasses each of these sources of uncertainty. This BMA procedure performs very well in Monte Carlo simulations calibrated to match relevant macroeconomic time series. We then apply the BMA approach to a cross-section of U.S. macroeconomic variables measuring inflation, production growth, and labor market conditions, finding substantial evidence for structural breaks in all of these series. For most series there are multiple structural breaks detected. We find pervasive evidence for at least one, and often multiple, breaks in conditional variance parameters, and for price inflation series we find strong evidence of changes in persistence. We find little evidence for changes in trend growth rates of production series, or in the natural rate of unemployment. For most series there is substantial uncertainty along one or more dimension of model specification, calling into question the common practice of basing inference on a single selected structural break model.

Interconnection between R&D and Industrial Production Structure: The Experience of India

Indian government initiated systematic opening up of its industrial economy in the early 1980s and this trend continued with greater pace and force in the 1990s and beyond. Theoretically, it is postulated that evolution of the innovation system and production structure co-evolve. But globalization may have either distorted this pattern due to lack of availability of access to new technologies from global market or forced the firms to increase in-house R&D investment to remain competitive. However, the caveat here is that public R&D has definitely gone down and to what extent the private sector has been able to enhance R&D investment to emerge as a leader is an issue which remains to be examined. In this context, the aim of this article is to examine the growth and change in the structure of industrial R&D in India and further ascertain the co-evolution and interconnection between industrial innovation system represented through R&D structure and industrial production structure in India. This study covers the period 1981–2010 while classifying the industries into four categories, that is, high-tech (H-T), medium high-tech (M-H-T), medium low-tech (M-L-T) and low-tech (L-T). Trend growth rates and Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficients are used to establish the relationship between structural change in industrial R&D and industrial output structure. The main findings show that the structural transformation in industrial R&D is well evident with rising importance of H-T and M-H-T group of industries in R&D whereas M-L-T and L-T industrial R&D recorded declining trends. Furthermore, this study has established an empirical relationship between structural change in industrial R&D and industrial output structure except M-L-T group of industries. An important policy implication that emerges for the sectoral innovation system is that developing countries like India should devote more efforts to strengthen the innovation system devoting higher proportion of resources for innovations.

The Pillars of Potential Growth and the Role of Policy: A Panel Data Approach

Potential output growth generally decelerated after the global financial crisis during 2008–2009. This paper examines the possible determinants of potential output growth using Bayesian Model Averaging and assesses how the determinants can be used to increase the growth of potential output. It finds that the long-term growth of working-age population, the tertiary level gross enrollment ratio, the technology gap with the United States (US), labor market rigidity, trade openness, financial integration and the quality of institutions robustly affect potential output growth. Using Harrod’s definition of potential output growth as the sum of the long-run growth rates of the labor force and labor productivity, we find that the trend growth rate of working-age population is a good proxy variable for long-run labor force growth. Under this definition, the other determinants affect potential output growth through their impact on the growth of labor productivity. The paper finds support for the hypotheses that tertiary enrollment and trade openness affects potential output growth nonlinearly. It also finds that trade openness and tertiary enrollment have nonlinear effects on potential output growth, and that the technology gap with the US and financial integration have statistically significant interaction effects on potential output growth. Results suggest that reforms aimed at reducing the technology gap with the US and increasing the extent of financial integration have lower impact on countries with high-quality institutions.

On fatigue crack growth in plastically compressible hardening and hardening–softening–hardening solids using crack-tip blunting

In the present study, mode I crack subjected to cyclic loading has been investigated for plastically compressible hardening and hardening–softening–hardening solids using the crack tip blunting model where we assume that the crack tip blunts during the maximum load and re-sharpening of the crack tip takes place under minimum load. Plane strain and small scale yielding conditions have been assumed for analysis. The influence of cyclic stress intensity factor range ( $$\Delta \hbox {K})$$ , load ratio (R), number of cycles (N), plastic compressibility ( $${\upalpha })$$ and material softening on near tip deformation, stress–strain fields were studied. The present numerical calculations show that the crack tip opening displacement (CTOD), convergence of the cyclic trajectories of CTOD to stable self-similar loops, plastic crack growth, plastic zone shape and size, contours of accumulated plastic strain and hydrostatic stress distribution near the crack tip depend significantly on $$\Delta \hbox {K}$$ , R, N, $${\upalpha }$$ and material softening. For both hardening and hardening–softening–hardening materials, yielding occurs during both loading and unloading phases, and resharpening of the crack tip during the unloading phase of the loading cycle is very significant. The similarities are revealed between computed near tip stress–strain variables and the experimental trends of the fatigue crack growth rate. There was no crack closure during unloading for any of the load cycles considered in the present study.

Curvature contribution on anodic aluminium oxide pore formation: a detailed analytical study

Anodic aluminium oxide (AAO) is a self-organised nanopore that has been widely studied due to the ease of its synthesization and pore properties manipulation. However, pore growth behaviour under different geometrical surfaces is rarely studied, particularly on the effect of combined curved surfaces towards pore growth properties, which is crucial in designing unique porous platform for specific applications. This paper reports study on the decisive effect of curvature surfaces on development of pore structure and properties at a constant potential. In this work, AAO grown on treated convex and concave surfaces were analysed in terms of pore quantity, pore diameter, interpore distance, pore length and other parameters of pore bottom geometry in conjugation with observation of pore cessation, bifurcation, bending and tapering. The unique formation of tapered pore was observed and described. Major factors deciding pore properties under curved surfaces were identified and discussed. We introduced a new parameter for surface quantification known as central inscribed angle, which was identified to be the central factor which decides pore growth behaviour under a curvature. Here, we observed a different trend in growth rate of pores under different curvatures, which oppose the commonly accepted convex > planar > concave pattern. Levelling height was later identified to be the decisive factor in determining growth rate of pores under a curvature at different geometrical location. These findings open up possibility to precisely control and tailor the growing path and pore structures of AAO simply via anodising an Al sheet under combined curvature surfaces, which could be beneficial for future novel applications.

Population growth, energy use, and the implications for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence

Von Hoerner (“Population Explosion and Interstellar Expansion,” Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, 28, 691–712, 1975; hereafter VH75) examined the effects of human population growth and predicted agricultural, environmental, and other problems from observed growth rate trends. Using straightforward calculations, VH75 predicted the “doomsday” years for these scenarios (≈2020–2050), when we as a species should run out of space or food, or induce catastrophic anthropogenic climate change through thermodynamically unavoidable direct heating of the planet. Now that over four decades have passed, in this paper we update VH75. We perform similar calculations as that work, with improved data and trends in population growth, food production, energy use, and climate change. For many of the impacts noted in VH75 our work amounts to pushing the “doomsday” horizon back to the 2300 s–2400 s (or much further for population-driven interstellar colonization). This is largely attributable to using worldwide data that exhibit smaller growth rates of population and energy use in the last few decades. While population-related catastrophes appear less likely than in VH75, our continued growth in energy use provides insight into possible future issues. We find that, if historic trends continue, direct heating of the Earth will be a substantial contributor to climate change by ≈2260, regardless of the energy source used, coincident with our transition to a Kardashev type-I civilization. We also determine that either an increase of Earth’s global mean temperature of ≈12 K will occur or an unreasonably high fraction of the planet will need to be covered by solar collectors by ∼2400 to keep pace with our growth in energy use. We further discuss the implications in terms of interstellar expansion, the transition to type II and III civilizations, SETI, and the Fermi Paradox. We conclude that the “sustainability solution” to the Fermi Paradox is a compelling possibility.

Reduction of flame development time in nanosecond pulsed high frequency discharge ignition of flowing mixtures

The effects of discharge and flow parameters on ignition kernel development time are explored in flowing methane–air mixtures. A nanosecond pulsed high frequency discharge in a pin-to-pin configuration is used as the ignition source, providing 2.9 ± 0.23 mJ/pulse. The effects of pulse repetition frequency (PRF) in the range of 10–300 kHz, number of pulses in the range of 1–50 (≈2.9–145 mJ), equivalence ratio in the range of 0.55–0.65, gap distance in the range of 0.5–2.5 mm, and flow velocity in the range of 2.5–10 m/s are explored. For all conditions, the ignition events are in the “fully-coupled” regime, in which high ignition probability is achieved and locally extinguished ignition kernels are avoided. It is found that reducing the PRF reduces the kernel development time for fixed total energy deposition due to an increased volume of unburned mixture exposed to the discharge. Increasing the number of pulses at a given PRF also decreases the kernel development time, again by increasing the volume of gas exposed to the discharge. The equivalence ratio only has an effect on the kernel growth rate after the discharge, with identical kernel areas measured at all equivalence ratios while the discharge is active. Increasing gap distance decreases the kernel development time by providing a larger initial kernel volume as well as reducing heat and radical quenching at the electrode surfaces. Finally, the flow velocity has an effect on the kernel growth rate at velocities greater than 5 m/s, with larger flow velocities resulting in shorter kernel development time. This is due to the competing rates of self-propagating flame expansion and kernel growth due to convection past the discharge region. The combined effects of all of the above parameters on the kernel area after the discharge are summarized in a correlation equation, which predicts the trends in kernel growth rate based on an estimated plasma area defined by the discharge duration, flow velocity, and gap distance.

Growth and Structural Changes in the South Asian Economies of India, Nepal and Sri Lanka

South Asian region is characterized by developing economies with varying degrees of socio- economic development. These economies find low position in terms of human development at the global level. The South Asian economies are now being looked upon with high growth potentials. India is emerging as one of the fastest growing economy in the world and other economies are also showing better growth momentum. Sri Lanka has been especially showing better growth realization for the last one decade. But with regard to Nepal, growth momentum now seems to be getting weakened after showing better prospects earlier.Economic growth and structural changes generally go together in developing economies. This helps in realignment of sectoral behavior and productivity. We examine these issues in this paper. Moreover, we analyze growth trend in the South Asian economies of India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Besides, we compare the structural changes in the three economies with the help of an index (NAV) along with the growth pattern. The study covers different periods for these economies while using secondary data. Trend growth rate, acceleration test and index of structural change (NAV) are used for analysis. These analyses suggest varying levels of growth performances in the three economies. However, relationship between growth rates and structural transformations does not get statistical support in any of the economies. The Journal of Development and Administrative Studies (JODAS), Vol. 24 (1-2), pp. 39-62

A comparison of growth rate of late Holocene stalagmites with atmospheric precipitation and temperature, and its implications for paleoclimatology

Growth rate of stalagmites can vary with many factors of physical environment, ecology, and karst hydrogeology, to the extent that growth rates calculated from a carefully selected set of data from 80 stalagmites from around the world vary by a factor of 400 from smallest to largest. Growth rates of those 80 stalagmites nonetheless collectively show correlations to atmospheric precipitation and temperature that are non-trivial (r2 = 0.12 and 0.20, respectively) and unlikely to have arisen randomly (p = 0.002 and 0.00002). Those global relationships are also supported by previously published studies of individual drip sites. The general trend of growth rates is not a monotonic increase with precipitation; instead, it reaches a maximum at annual precipitation rates between 700 and 2300 mm/year, which both counters many model predictions that growth rates should increase monotonically with drip rate and complicates use of growth rate as a proxy for past precipitation. The general trend of growth rates among the 80 stalagmites is a monotonic increase with temperature. However, the low values of r2 in both of these general trends indicate that growth rate can be at best a qualitative rather than quantitative proxy of past conditions. Growth rate shows no statistically significant relationship to effective precipitation, seemingly because of the confounding effect of temperature.Growth rates of aragonite-bearing stalagmites are commonly greater than rates in stalagmites in which calcite is the only carbonate mineral, suggesting both the need for careful identification of mineralogy and the special applicability of aragonitic stalagmites in high-resolution studies. Aragonite has exceptionally great frequency in settings with low effective atmospheric precipitation, supporting previous linkages of that mineral to warm dry environments.Closely-spaced sampling used in recent paleoclimatological studies suggests that unexploited long-term low-resolution records of past climate may exist in surprisingly small slow-growing stalagmites from exceptionally cold and/or dry regions.

ANSYS‐MATLAB co‐simulation of mucus flow distribution and clearance effectiveness of a new simulated cough device

Coughing is an irritable reaction that protects the respiratory system from infection and improves mucus clearance. However, for the patients who cannot cough autonomously, an assisted cough device is essential for mucus clearance. Considering the low efficiency of current assisted cough devices, a new simulated cough device based on the pneumatic system is proposed in this paper. Given the uncertainty of airflow rates necessary to clear mucus from airways, the computational fluid dynamics Eulerian wall film model and cough efficiency (CE) were used in this study to simulate the cough process and evaluate cough effectiveness. The Ansys-Matlab co-simulation model was set up and verified through experimental studies using Newtonian fluids. Next, model simulations were performed using non-Newtonian fluids, and peak cough flow (PCF) and PCF duration time were analyzed to determine their influence on mucus clearance. CE growth rate (λ) was calculated to reflect the CE variation trend. From the numerical simulation results, we find that CE rises as PCF increases while the growth rate trends to slow as PCF increases; when PCF changes from 60 to 360L/min, CE changes from 3.2% to 51.5% which is approximately 16 times the initial value. Meanwhile, keeping a long PCF duration time could greatly improve CE under the same cough expired volume and PCF. The results indicated that increasing the PCF and PCF duration time can improve the efficiency of mucus clearance. This paper provides a new approach and a research direction for control strategy in simulated cough devices for airway mucus clearance.

Variability in the performance of juvenile Chinook salmon is explained primarily by when and where they resided in estuarine habitats

AbstractEstuarine habitats provide rearing opportunities for the juvenile life stage of anadromous fishes. Because survival is positively correlated with juvenile performance, these estuarine habitats play an important role in population abundance and productivity. To provide information for the recovery of several depressed stocks of Chinook salmon in the Columbia River Basin, we sought to identify the factors that explain variability in performance. Using otolith‐derived estimates of juvenile somatic growth rate as an index of recent performance, we observed a negative nonlinear relationship between growth rate and day of year, and a decreasing and increasing trend of growth rate over the 8 years of this study and distance from the river mouth respectively. Using a generalised linear modelling approach, we found that variability in juvenile somatic growth rate was best explained by where and when individuals were collected, their body size, contaminant loads, stock of origin, and whether a fish was hatchery produced or unmarked. Lastly, we argue that a considerable improvement to the growth rate of juveniles in estuarine habitats is physiologically possible. The results of this 8‐year study provide a baseline of the performance of juvenile Chinook salmon to evaluate habitat restoration programs and to compare against future anthropogenic conditions.

Spatio-temporal analysis of urban growth in selected small, medium and large Indian cities

This study attempts to ascertain the spatial and temporal variations in the evolution of Indian cities using multi-date remote sensing data. A two-stage object-based nearest neighbour classification approach with hierarchical segmentation was used to extract built-up area in selected small, medium and large cities, whereas object-based temporal inversion was applied for change analysis. The temporal trend of net population density, degree of scattered development and compactness of urban core in each city was determined using the built-up area. The study observed a declining trend in growth rate of built-up area in small and medium sized-cities, in contrast to large cities. However, the net population density in cities of all types is decreasing as urban growth has outpaced the corresponding population growth. Furthermore, small and medium cities indicated greater tendency for scattered development in comparison to large cities, whereas the core urban areas of the later appeared relatively less compact.

Curve Progression in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Does Not Match Skeletal Growth.

Determining the peak growth velocity of a patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is important for timely treatment to prevent curve progression. It is important to be able to predict when the curve-progression risk is greatest to maximize the benefits of any intervention for AIS. The distal radius and ulna (DRU) classification has been shown to accurately predict skeletal growth. However, its utility in predicting curve progression and the rate of progression in AIS is unknown. (1) What is the relationship between radius and ulna grades to growth rate (body height and arm span) and curve progression rate? (2) When does peak curve progression occur in relation to peak growth rate as measured by months and by DRU grades? (3) How many months and how many DRU grades elapse between peak curve progression and plateau? This was a retrospective analysis of a longitudinally maintained dataset of growth and Cobb angle data of patients with AIS who presented with Risser Stages 0 to 3 and were followed to maturity at Risser Stage 5 at a single institute with territory-wide school screening service. From June 2014 to March 2016, a total of 513 patients with AIS fulfilled study inclusion criteria. Of these, 195 were treated with bracing at the initial presentation and were excluded. A total of 318 patients with AIS (74% girls) with a mean age of 12 ± 1.5 years were studied. For analysis, only data from initial presentation to commencement of intervention were recorded. Data for patients during the period of bracing or after surgery were not used for analysis to eliminate potential interventional confounders. Of these 318 patients, 192 were observed, 119 were braced, and seven underwent surgery. Therefore 192 patients (60.4%) who were observed were followed up until skeletal maturity at Risser Stage 5; no patients were lost to followup. The mean curve magnitude at baseline was 21.6 ± 4.8. Mean followup before commencing intervention or skeletal maturity was 4.3 ± 2.3 years. Standing body height, arm span, curve magnitude, Risser stage, and DRU classification were studied. A subgroup analysis of 83 patients inclusive of acceleration, peak, and deceleration progression phases for growth and curve progression was studied to determine any time lag between growth and curve progression. Results were described in mean ± SD. There was positive correlation between growth rate and curve progression rate for body height (r = 0.26; p < 0.001) and arm span (r = 0.26; p < 0.001). Peak growth for body height occurred at radius grade (R) 6 (0.56 ± 0.29 cm/month) and ulna grade (U) 4 (0.65 ± 0.31 cm/month); peak change in arm span occurred at R5 (0.67 ± 0.33 cm/month) and U3 (0.67 ± 0.22 cm/month); and peak curve progression matched with R7 (0.80 ± 0.89 cm/month) and U5 (0.84 ± 0.78 cm/month). Subgroup analysis confirmed that peak curve progression lagged behind peak growth rate by approximately 7 months or one DRU grade. The mean time elapsed between the peak curve progression rate and the plateau phase at R9 U7 was approximately 16 months, corresponding to two DRU grades. By using a standard skeletal maturity parameter in the DRU classification, this study showed that the maximal curve progression occurs after the peak growth spurt, suggesting that the curve should be monitored closely even after peak growth. In addition, the period of potential curve continuing progression extends nearly 1.5 years beyond the peak growth phase until skeletal maturity. Future studies may evaluate whether by observing the trend of growth and curve progression rates, we can improve the outcomes of interventions like bracing for AIS. Level II, prognostic study.

Efficacy of Handmade Feed on Growth Performance of Thai Pangus (pangasius hypophthalmus)

The present study was conducted to assess the effect of three types of feeds on the growth of Thai pangus ( pangasius hypophthalmus ) from July, 2016 to Sept., 2016 at Durgapur in Comilla, Bangladesh. Growth performance was influenced by the feed type. All treatments were carried out in triplicate at 2 acres and average initial weights of Thai pangus were 150 g. Average final weights of Thai pangus were 650 g, 620 g, and 600 g with specific growth rate of 1.11110769%, 1.11109677% and 1.1111% in T1, T2 and T3 respectively. Feed conversion ratio were estimated 1.9727 in T1, 2 in T2 and also 2.0325 in T3. The result showed a typical increasing trend of final weight and specific growth rate of Thai pangus along with the increasing of feed protein level. The production cost depends on protein level of diet. This study recommended that the quality and cost efficiency of feed should be considered along with its protein level to get a profitable growth of Thai pangus ( pangasius hypophthalmus ).

Sensitivity of Three Dominant Tree Species from the Upper Boundary of Their Forest Type to Climate Change at Changbai Mountain, Northeastern China

We quantified the growth dynamics and climatic responses of three tree species that have dominated Changbai Mountain: Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Yeddo spruce (Picea jezoensis), and Erman's birch (Betula ermanii). Standardization curves and moving correlations were used to assess growth rate trends and analyze changes in growth-climate relationships of trees at their upper forest boundaries and individual species elevation limits, respectively. Contrasting growth patterns were observed between trees at each upper forest boundary and species-specific upper elevation limits. Korean pines and Yeddo spruces grew faster at their upper forest boundaries than at their individual species limits. A higher growth rate of Erman's birches at their forest upper boundary only occurred before 1960. Relative to the strong effect of temperature on tree growth at individual upper elevation limits, the stable effect of precipitation and changing effect of temperature on tree growth were observed at the upper forest boundaries. Temperature increases have had a significantly negative effect on Korean pine and Erman's birch since 1980, whereas temperature increases were associated with Yeddo spruce growth. This study elucidated the differential growth patterns and temporal changes in climate–growth relationships of these species between their upper forest boundaries and elevation limits.

Analisis Dampak Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk Terhadap Aspek Kependudukan Berwawasan Gender Pada Urban Area Di Kota Serang

In the short term the purpose of this study is to: (1) analyze the trend of population growth rate in Serang City, (2) to analyze the impact of population growth rate on gender aspect of population in urban area in Serang City, (3) to analyze the increasing of environmental pollution and deforestation of the environment, such as flooding in Serang City, (4) identifying strategic steps that need to be done to prevent and control population growth rate toward aspect of population with gender insight on urban area in Serang City. Data obtained in this study were analyzed using 4 methods, namely tabulation analysis, descriptive, Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and Root Case Analysis (RCA). The result of this research are: (1) population growth rate in Serang City shows decreasing trend. In the period 2010-2020, the population growth rate of Serang City dropped from 2.20 percent to 1.52 percent, (2) the increasing number of residents in Serang City currently demands the management of population and good resources in order to avoid problems in the future. The efforts in the management of the population, among others, controlling the population, improving the quality and quality of the population, and utilizing appropriate human and natural resources will make the large population in Serang City become a strong development capital, (3) ideal capacity of an area, namely Serang City to be able to accommodate the maximum rainfall, the current city of Serang gets overloaded capacity of rainfall greater than ideal capacity. Or in other words, high rainfall makes Serang City unable to withstand the volume of rainfall, which is an average of 5.87 m3 / ha, and (4) there are several strategic steps that need to be done to prevent and control population growth rate (2) Improving education and skills, (3) Conserving the environment, (4) Keeping public facilities, and (5) ordering the aspects of population-oriented gender in urban areas in Serang City.

Aplikasi Teori Personal Selling: Kasus pada Bank Regional

This research is a descriptive research aiming at knowing the implementation of bjb SurePrize program at bank bjb (bank Jabar Banten) Cianjur branch which is seen from the framework of personal selling theory. In addition, this research is also aimed at determining the growth rate (trend) of savings and demand deposits at bank bjb in the period of enactment of bjb SurePrize program. The research methods used are interview and literature study. The results showed that the implementation of personal selling in the bjbSurePrize program at bank bjb Cianjur branch is executed by executive personal selling, inside personal selling and outside personal selling. Personal selling process conducted uses 6 (six) stages, namely: prospecting, pre-approach, presentation and demonstration, overcoming objections, closing and follow up. In addition, there is also a contribution from the bjb SurePrize program .on the growth of savings and demand deposits in the year 2016 of 0.16%.