Demographic Trends Research Articles

Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.

We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity. The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence. We developed a model for the Brazilian population from 2006 to 2036. Data on the Brazilian population in relation to sex and age were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and data on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and smoking were collected from the Surveillance of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL). The observed prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Brazilians aged over 25 years was 10.8% (5.2-14.3%) in 2006, increasing to 13.7% (6.9-18.4%) in 2020. Between 2006 and 2020, the observed prevalence in men increased from 11.0 to 19.1% and women from 10.6 to 21.3%. The model forecasts a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2036 (27.0% overall, 17.1% in men and 35.9% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declines by 1% per year from 2020 to 2036 (Scenario 1), the prevalence of diabetes decreases from 26.3 to 23.7, which represents approximately a 10.0% drop in 16 years. If obesity declined by 5% per year in 16 years as an optimistic target (Scenario 2), the prevalence of diabetes decreased from 26.3 to 21.2, representing a 19.4% drop in diabetes prevalence. The model predicts an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil. Even with ambitious targets to reduce obesity prevalence, type 2 diabetes in Brazil will continue to have a large impact on Brazilian public health.

THE INVESTMENT PATTERN AND BANKING NEEDS OF THE HOUSING SOCIETIES.

THE INVESTMENT PATTERN AND BANKING NEEDS OF THE HOUSING SOCIETIES THE INVESTMENT PATTERN AND BANKING NEEDS OF THE HOUSING SOCIETIES. UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF Prof. Reji john SOB, GALGOTIAS UNIVERSITY SUBMITTED BY Bineet yadav 22GSOB2010640 MBA 2022-2024 SCHOOL OF BUSINESS GALGOTIAS UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT This study delves into the investment patterns and banking requirements of housing societies, examining their financial management practices for sustainability and growth. Through a comprehensive analysis of market dynamics, company performance, risk assessment, valuation methods, investment strategies, and portfolio management, this research aims to provide insights into effective financial decision-making within the housing society sector. • Market Analysis: The market analysis section explores the macroeconomic factors influencing the housing society sector, including demographic trends, urbanization rates, regulatory environment, and economic indicators. It assesses the demand for residential properties, rental yields, and competition among housing societies. Additionally, it examines the impact of market volatility and economic cycles on investment decisions within the sector. • Company Analysis: Company analysis focuses on the financial performance and operational efficiency of housing societies. It evaluates key metrics such as revenue growth, profit margins, asset utilization, and liquidity ratios to assess the financial health of individual housing societies. Furthermore, it examines governance structures, management capabilities, and strategic initiatives undertaken by housing societies to enhance shareholder value and mitigate risks. • Risk Assessment: Risk assessment involves identifying and evaluating various risks inherent in investing in housing societies. These risks may include market

Demographics and FDI: lessons from China’s one-child policy

Abstract Following the introduction of the one-child policy in China, the capital-labor ratio of China increased relative to that of India, while FDI/GDP inflows to China versus India simultaneously declined. These observations are explained in the context of a simple neoclassical overlapping generations paradigm. The adjustment mechanism works as follows: the reduction in the growth rate of the (urban) labor force due to the one-child policy increases the capital per worker inherited from the previous generation. The resulting increase in China’s domestic capital-labor ratio thus "crowds out" the need for foreign direct investment (FDI) in China relative to India. Our paper is a contribution to the nascent literature exploring demographic transitions and their effects on FDI flows.

OR6-10 | Demographic Trends in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Incidence and Mortality in the United States

OR6-10 | Demographic Trends in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Incidence and Mortality in the United States

Nowcasting and forecasting global aging and cancer burden: analysis of data from the GLOBOCAN and Global Burden of Disease Study

ObjectiveTo analyze the impact of global population aging on cancer epidemiology, with a focus on the incidence and mortality rates among individuals aged 60 years and above. MethodsWe utilized open-source data, retrieving population age estimates from the United Nations Population Division website. The GLOBOCAN 2020 database provided estimates for cancer cases and deaths in 2020 and 2040, while the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database supplied estimates of new cancer cases worldwide from 2000 to 2019. Inclusion criteria considered individuals aged 60 years and over, focusing on the top five deadliest cancers. The cohort-component method was employed for population prediction, with age-specific incidence and mortality rates estimated for 2020 used to forecast the cancer burden. ResultsIn 2021, the global population aged over 60 years accounted for 13.7%, with Europe/North America and Australia/New Zealand having the highest proportions. The older population is predicted to reach 19.2% by 2040. In 2020, of the 19.3 million new cancer cases worldwide, 64% occurred in individuals aged 60 and above, contributing to 71.3% of cancer-related deaths. The five most common cancer sites were the lung, colorectum, prostate, breast, and stomach. Cancer incidence and deaths are projected to rise significantly among older individuals, reaching 20.7 million new cases and 12.7 million deaths by 2040. Older age, tobacco use, dietary factors, alcohol consumption, and high body mass index (BMI) were identified as major risk factors for various cancers in this demographic. ConclusionsThis study reveals a significant rise in cancer incidence and mortality among the elderly due to global population aging. The urgency for targeted interventions in cancer prevention, screening, and treatment for older individuals is emphasized. Despite acknowledged limitations, these findings contribute valuable insights to inform strategies for managing cancer in the elderly amidst evolving demographic trends.

Arbeitsmotivation erhöhen – aber wie?

Abstract Without sufficient countermeasures, demographic trends point to a significant increase in the shortage of skilled workers and a noticeable decline in per capita GDP growth. Higher labour force participation offers great potential to counteract this. Improved job satisfaction and work motivation can help to increase the propensity to work. Studies prove that there is a lot of potential to strengthen job satisfaction and intrinsic motivation. This article sets out the main determinants and how employers, government institutions and other participants in the labour market can help to improve job satisfaction.

Trends in Substance Use and Prenatal Care in Pregnant Patients in a Delaware Hospital [ID 2683484

INTRODUCTION: 8.2% of pregnancy-associated deaths are attributable to opioid use. In Delaware, the rate of overdose deaths is 60% higher than nationally, and 12/14 pregnancy-associated deaths in 2021 were opioid related. This study examines demographic trends to identify targets for population-level interventions to decrease opioid abuse in pregnancy. METHODS: The data for this retrospective study were obtained via chart review, de-identified, and included all women with a positive drug screen who delivered in a Delaware community hospital between January 2018 and December 2021, examined for trends by half year. RESULTS: The majority of 677 women identified as White (70.9%), non-Hispanic/Latino (93.6%), and had government-issued insurance (86.6%). We saw high rates of emergency department (ED) utilization, with 66.6% of patients being seen in ED on at least one occasion prior to delivery. 33% of patients had less than five prenatal visits and 11.1% had no prenatal care. Women with government-issued insurance were significantly more likely to have insufficient prenatal care (P<.001). A trend was present showing that women taking medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) were more likely to have sufficient prenatal care, although this value was not significant (P=.10). CONCLUSION: Because of frequent visits in the antepartum period, pregnancy is a time where women may have increased interaction with the health care system, providing an important opportunity for intervention and care. Encounters in the ED may provide an important occasion to help connect patients to prenatal care resources, and clinics providing substance use-related care and prenatal care in one location would further decrease barriers to access care.

Indonesia Employment in 2023: Labor Force Conditions and Policy Developments in the Early Stages of the Demographic Bonus

In 2023, amidst the complexities of a volatile global economy, Indonesia demonstrated economic resilience, propelled by its dynamic workforce. This abstract synthesizes the intricate interplay between macroeconomic forces and employment trends within Indonesia, drawing from comprehensive data analyses and policy evaluations. The report encapsulates a year marked by economic recovery despite global headwinds such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation surges, and supply chain interruptions. With a predicted global growth of 3.6% by the IMF, Indonesia's economy experienced fluctuations but maintained a growth trajectory from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023. Labor force data indicates a predominance of the working-age population, signaling potential for sustained productivity and economic fortitude. The demographic composition, skewed towards a younger populace, underpins the vibrant labor market. Employment policies have been responsive to digitalization, globalization, and demographic transitions, focusing on skill development, vocational training, and job safety. Notably, vocational training for SMK graduates was prioritized to match industry requirements. Regulatory advancements aim to balance worker protections with corporate operational efficiency. Amidst COVID-19's lingering impact, policy adaptations were crucial to support workers and businesses, exemplifying Indonesia’s agility in times of crisis. The landscape of employment disputes, predominantly centered around termination, underscores the necessity for robust conflict resolution mechanisms. With 71.15% of industrial disputes tied to terminations, mediation emerged as the preferred dispute resolution strategy. Regional data unveiled disparities in job placements and complaints, spotlighting the need for equitable workforce distribution and grievance redressal mechanisms. The report concludes that Indonesia's labor policies and employment conditions are dynamically evolving, poised to sculpt a robust, inclusive, and sustainable labor market landscape.

Healthcare System Sustainability Challenges in Nepal and Opportunities Offered by Alternative Healthcare Delivery Arrangements

The burden of chronic diseases in Nepal is increasing due to demographic and epidemiological transitions; alongside the persistent impact of communicable, maternal, newborn, and child health diseases, this critical situation acts as the precursor to rising healthcare costs. Nepal struggles to sustain its healthcare system amidst political instability, pandemics, natural disasters, and slow economic growth, particularly when healthcare funding is mainly dependent on out-of-pocket payments. Nepal requires lower-cost alternative healthcare delivery arrangements to provide high-value care while relieving economic sustainability pressures. Alternative healthcare delivery arrangements have a broad potential scope; they can involve strategic changes in how care is delivered and by whom, or they can also involve the application of information and communication technologies, e.g., telemedicine. This paper highlights the specific challenges to healthcare system sustainability in Nepal and the potential for high-value, lower-cost alternative healthcare delivery models to improve system performance in the longer term.

ПОЛ ПЛОДА В ОЦЕНКЕ РИСКА АНТЕНАТАЛЬНЫХ, ИНТРАНАТАЛЬНЫХ И РАННИХ НЕОНАТАЛЬНЫХ ПОТЕРЬ

Unfavorable demographic trends, combined with unstable dynamics of perinatal mortality rates, require improvement of the perinatal forecasting system. The search for new perinatal risk factors is also becoming relevant. The appearance of publications on the influence of sexual dimorphism on the course of pregnancy and childbirth indicates the need to study the possibility of using this factor in predicting perinatal losses. Objective of the study: to study the role of fetal sex as a risk factor for antepartum and intrapartum fetal death, early neonatal death of a newborn. Materials and research methods. A retrospective study was conducted with the participation of patients with antepartum (n=70) and intrapartum (n=40) fetal death, early neonatal death of a newborn (n=50) and a favorable perinatal outcome (n=50) as a control. We studied the structure of patients by fetal sex, conducted its comparative analysis in these groups, determined the prognostic value of fetal sex in antepartum, intrapartum fetal death and early neonatal death of a newborn. We used the program "Statistica 10.0" for statistical processing of the obtained data and the Bayes model of prediction with analysis by A. Wald, method of E.V. Gubler and the criterion of S. Kullback. Results. The male sex of the fetus prevailed over the female in all groups of perinatal risk. In the group with a favorable perinatal outcome, on the contrary, female fetuses were more common. We found a statistically significant difference in fetal sex between the antepartum risk and control groups: the male sex of the fetus occurred at antenatal losses 1.5 times more often than at favorable perinatal outcomes (p=0.028). We have calculated prognostic coefficients and indicators of the informativeness of fetal sex in antepartum, intrapartum and early neonatal losses. We have determined the prognostic value of fetal sex and established the nature of its effect on perinatal prognosis for each of the risk groups. Conclusion. The conducted study allows us to consider the sex of the fetus as a factor of differentiated risk of antepartum, intrapartum and early neonatal losses. The obtained results clearly demonstrate the prognostic role of fetal sex and indicate the need to include this factor in the perinatal risk assessment system at each stage of the perinatal period.

Academic Barriers of Students with Hearing Impairment at the Undergraduate Level

This study addresses the academic barriers of students with hearing impairment at a private institution. A competent generation depends on education; however, SWHI has particular hurdles in getting higher education. Communication, socialization, curriculum, instructions, learning, and support services are examined as significant factors in academic performance. The census-sampled research examines demographics including age, gender, and disability level in 41 SWHI. The researcher uses sign language interpreters to collect data. Quantitative investigations refine SWHI views on academic impediments. Detail frequency distributions and statistical tests like t-tests reveal demographic trends and variances. Communication, socialization, curriculum adaptability, and educational structural impediments were found. Library, internet, and assistive technology reduce academic challenges, according to the study. The research intends to influence policy-making to make SWHI higher education more accessible by illuminating these complexities.

Unravelling the nutritional transition in Spain: From meat shortages to excess (1958–1990)

Abstract The nutritional transition, together with the demographic and epidemiological transitions, stands as one of the most crucial phenomena shaping societies in the 20th century. A prominent characteristic of the nutritional transition is the increased consumption of animal-origin protein, particularly meat. Within this context, the present article utilises Spain as a case study to provide a close examination of the nutritional transition during the latter half of the 20th century. Spain’s significance lies in its late but rapid development of this transition. In the 1960s, meat consumption was relatively low compared to other European countries; however, within just two decades, it surpassed that of many developed nations. On one hand, the article offers a detailed insight into how budget constraints were eased to foster meat consumption among various consumer groups. On the other hand, the study aims to quantify the influence of income, prices, and preferences in driving this process

Demographic Trends at the American Academy of Ophthalmology Annual Cornea Subspecialty Day.

The purpose of this study was to identify trends in female representation and years since training completion among speakers and moderators at the American Academy of Ophthalmology (AAO) Annual Cornea Subspecialty Day between 2007 and 2022. Speakers and moderators at each AAO Cornea Subspecialty Day from 2007 to 2022 were sorted by sex and year of training completion. Sex and time from training completion were identified based on the individual's institutional profile or publicly available databases. Five hundred eighty-three speakers and 48 moderators were identified from the AAO Cornea Subspecialty Day meeting archives over 15 years. Overall, women represented 199 (34.1%) speakers and 19 (39.6%) moderators. The proportion of female speakers increased from 10.0% in 2007 to 54.8% in 2022 (P < 0.001). The ratio of female moderators increased from 4 of 21 (19.0%) in 2007 to 2014 to 15 of 27 (55.6%) in 2015 to 2022 (P = 0.017). In years where there were less than 50% female moderators, women represented 26.3% of speakers versus 44.4% of speakers in years with greater than 50% female moderators (P = 0.014). Female speakers were overall earlier in practice than male speakers, with fewer average years since training completion (16.4 ± 1.8 vs. 22.3 ± 2.1 years; P < 0.001). Female representation among speakers and moderators at AAO's Cornea Subspecialty Day increased between 2007 and 2022. Sessions with a majority of female moderators were associated with a higher number of female speakers. Female speakers were generally earlier in their career than male speakers. These trends highlight the overall increases in female representation in academic ophthalmology.

A single ALS center experience with clinical use of sodium phenylbutyrate-taurursodiol.

The aim of this study was to examine clinical utilization and discontinuation rates of sodium phenylbutyrate-taurursodiol (PB-TURSO) in a single Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) center. PB-TURSO was approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in September 2022. Prior experience has been limited to clinical trials or expanded access protocols. In this manuscript, we discuss insurance approval rates, patient uptake, and discontinuation of PB-TURSO in a large academic center. Records of patients seen for clinical visits between January 2022 and May 2023 were reviewed. Demographic and clinical characteristics of our clinic population and those initiating PB-TURSO were obtained from our clinical database. A total of 228 patients were seen during the observation period and 122 requested PB-TURSO prescriptions. 77% (94) were approved by insurance. 66% (65) of those who were approved or received free drug chose to start medication. 51% (34) of those who initiated PB-TURSO continued to take it through the end of the observation period. Four patients discontinued due to death during the observation period. Of the 29 patients who survived and discontinued, the main reasons for discontinuation were GI symptoms (17, 58.6%) and taste (8, 29.6%). PB-TURSO was approved by insurance for most patients. The discontinuation rate was high and was driven largely by GI side effects and taste. Future considerations would include deeper examination of demographic trends, patient costs, side effects, and potential benefits in clinical practice.

The Decline of Small Practice in Colorectal Surgery: Practice Consolidation From 2015-2022

IntroductionPhysicians have gravitated toward larger group practice arrangements in recent years. However, consolidation trends in colorectal surgery have yet to be well described. Our objective was to assess current trends in practice consolidation within colorectal surgery and evaluate underlying demographic trends including age, gender, and geography. MethodsWe performed a retrospective cross-sectional study using the Center for Medicare Services National Downloadable File from 2015 to 2022. Colorectal surgeons were categorized by practice size and by region, gender, and age. ResultsFrom 2015 to 2022, the number of colorectal surgeons in the United States increased from 1369 to 1621 (+18.4%), while the practices with which they were affiliated remained relatively stable (693-721, +4.0%). The proportion of colorectal surgeons in groups of 1-2 members fell from 18.9% to 10.7%. Conversely, those in groups of 500+ members grew from 26.5% to 45.2% (linear trend P < 0.001). The midwest region demonstrated the highest degree of consolidation. Affiliations with group practices of 500+ members saw large increases from both female and male surgeons (+148.9% and +86.9%, respectively). New surgeons joining the field since 2015 overwhelmingly practice in larger groups (5.3% in groups of 1-2, 50.1% in groups of 500+). ConclusionsColorectal surgeons are shifting toward larger practice affiliations. Although this change is happening across all demographic groups, it appears unevenly distributed across geography, gender, and age. New surgeons are preferentially joining large group practices.

Trends in Suspected Opioid Drug Overdose Events in Emergency Medical Service Encounters in South Carolina, 2019-2022.

The number of drug overdoses and drug-related deaths has increased across the United States in recent years. Reports of suspected opioid drug overdoses identified through emergency medical services (EMS) are valuable sources of information for shaping the public health response to drug overdoses. The objective of this study was to describe trends in the number of EMS-reported suspected opioid drug overdose events in South Carolina from 2019 through 2022. We included reports of suspected opioid drug overdoses if they met the definition of nonfatal opioid overdose syndrome in our analysis. We analyzed statewide data reported from EMS agencies to biospatial, Inc, from January 2019 through December 2022 to understand demographic trends for a statewide overdose and response program in South Carolina. In 2022, a total of 11 078 suspected opioid drug overdose events, or 216.4 per 100 000 South Carolina residents, were reported by EMS. During the 4-year study period, the number of EMS-reported suspected opioid drug overdoses increased by 82%, with African American people experiencing a 133% increase and White people experiencing a 68% increase. The number of opioid overdoses increased among all age groups during the study period. Approximately 84% of opioid overdoses were reported in urban counties, but rural counties had a higher number of opioid overdose reports per capita than urban counties. Monitoring trends in suspected opioid drug overdoses allows decision makers to adjust resources and programs for overdose response and is essential for local coordinated response. Continued monitoring of trends is needed for an equitable response to prevent opioid drug overdoses.

What is driving the global decline of human fertility? Need for a multidisciplinary approach to the underlying mechanisms.

An intense period of human population expansion over the past 250 years is about to cease. Total fertility rates are falling dramatically all over the world such that highly industrialized nations, including China and the tiger economies of SE Asia, will see their populations decline significantly in the coming decades. The socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental ramifications of this change are considerable and invite a multidisciplinary consideration of the underlying mechanisms. In the short-term, socioeconomic factors, particularly urbanization and delayed childbearing are powerful drivers of reduced fertility. In parallel, lifestyle factors such as obesity and the presence of numerous reproductive toxicants in the environment, including air-borne pollutants, nanoplastics and electromagnetic radiation, are seriously compromising reproductive health. In the longer term, it is hypothesized that the reduction in family size that accompanies the demographic transition will decrease selection pressure on high fertility genes leading to a progressive loss of human fecundity. Paradoxically, the uptake of assisted reproductive technologies at scale, may also contribute to such fecundity loss by encouraging the retention of poor fertility genotypes within the population. Since the decline in fertility rate that accompanies the demographic transition appears to be ubiquitous, the public health implications for our species are potentially devastating.

Demographic Characteristics and Trends of Hydatid Disease in Kyrgyz Republic: A Comprehensive Analysis from 1986 to 2022

Demographic Characteristics and Trends of Hydatid Disease in Kyrgyz Republic: A Comprehensive Analysis from 1986 to 2022

Death by electrocution: A retrospective analysis of three medico-legal mortuaries in the eThekwini district of Kwazulu Natal, South Africa from 2006 to 2016

Background and aimElectrocution is a well-documented preventative cause of unnatural death globally. The demographic profile and trends of fatal electrocutions in the eThekwini district, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa were analyzed and aimed to identify regional factors for targeted prevention. MethodsA retrospective descriptive study analyzed all fatal electrocutions autopsied at three medico-legal mortuaries in eThekwini from 1st January 2006 to 31st December 2016. Clinical, postmortem and police findings were collated, categorized and statistically analyzed. ResultsA total of 512 electrocution fatalities were identified at autopsy during the 11 year study period (1,35 fatal electrocutions/ 100 000 population). Cases escalated until 2013 and then gradually decreased, with significant difference between the number of cases per study year (p < 0.001). Most deaths occurred in domestic environments, amongst males (3rd to 4th decade), in summer, during weekends and around midday. The under 10 years were the most vulnerable age group overall (28,71 % of all cases), notably those under 3-years old. Most female victims were under 10 years old (43.81 %). The highest percentage of cases occurred outside the metro. Illegal connections accounted for almost 50 % of cases identified by source. ConclusionThe eThekwini district in KwaZulu Natal documented the most electrocutions for any study undertaken in South Africa to date. Regional trends in child electrocutions, particularly females under 10 years and fatalities attributed to illegal connections are crucial considerations for directed prevention.

An undue emphasis on rural older adults in the Chief Medical Officer's annual report 2023?

The Chief Medical Officer's annual report 2023 presents an incomplete and skewed picture of the geography of older people in England. We show that there are higher absolute numbers of older people in urban areas in England and Wales, in contrast to key messages from the CMO report which suggest greater need in rural areas based on relative metrics. The absolute size of the urban–rural difference in the population of older people is projected to grow by 2043. Older adults in urban areas are much more likely to live in deprived areas than older adults in rural areas. The absolute number and prevalence of older adults in poorer health is also higher in urban areas, leading to greater healthcare needs. Policy-makers need to consider both absolute and relative demographic trends as well as making use of direct measures of health when planning how healthcare services for older adults are distributed geographically in England.