Trends In Childlessness Research Articles

Fertility resilience varies by socioeconomic status and sex: Historical trends in childlessness across 150 years

Fertility dynamics are key drivers of demographic change in a population. Fertility resilience is likely to vary by socioeconomic class, yet little investigated. Using a unique dataset tracking the reproduction of family lineages for 150 years, we explored childlessness by socioeconomic status and sex during the demographic transition and recurring societal and economic disturbances in Finland. Lifetime childlessness doubled from the 1800 birth cohort to the 1945-1949 cohort. Higher socioeconomic status (SES) indicated higher lifetime likelihood to reproduce. The fluctuations in childlessness over time appeared to be driven by the low socioeconomic group, showing low fertility resilience. In contrast, a steady increase was seen in high and moderate SES. Our findings suggest that the family formation of lower socioeconomic groups suffers the most during crises and does not necessarily recuperate. Preventing inequalities in family formation and reproduction should be recognized as a key challenge for population resilience to crises.

Las mujeres que terminan su vida reproductiva sin hijos:evolución reciente en América Latina y el Caribe (1980-2010)

Based on census data from 1980 and 2010 the paper examines trends in childlessness in the region. Results show the coexistence of two opposite trends: a decrease in nulliparity in countries that had low fertility levels in the 1980s and an increase in those with high fertility levels. This paper aims to advance in the interpretation of these counter- intuitive results, given that we expected an increase of childlessness in those countries with low or very low fertility in the 2000s. The trend reflects a cyclical behavior that replicates the European experience decades ago.

Trends in Childlessness Among Highly Educated Men in Sweden

Among men with post-secondary degrees in Sweden, one in four are childless by age 45, and this level has been constant over time (in this study, for men born 1956–1972). This high level of childlessness is somewhat surprising in the context of a significant gender imbalance among the highly educated (and thus the relative scarcity of highly educated men). In this study, I examine differences in childlessness among the highly educated by studying how educational prestige, social class, and income are associated with the likelihood of becoming a father. Higher income and social class background are positively associated with fatherhood, and this association has not changed over time. Educational prestige (higher degrees, or degrees from traditional universities) is not positively associated with fatherhood, while 2-year degrees have become more positively associated with fatherhood over time. The findings of this study suggest that socioeconomic resources are important for men's family formation in Sweden compared to educational resources, contrary to expectations from educational homophily and partner market perspectives.

Michaela Kreyenfeld and Dirk Konietzka (Eds.) Childlessness in Europe: Contexts, Causes, and Consequences SpringerOpen, 2017. 370 p. $59.99.

Childlessness has risen sharply in recent decades in the developed world, drawing the attention of researchers and policymakers. This open-access volume provides an overview of levels and trends and causes and consequences of childlessness in Europe. It is based on the 2nd edition of the book Ein Leben Ohne Kinder published in Germany in 2013 and contains ten new chapters and six updated chapters of its predecessor. The first half of the volume documents long-range trends in childlessness in chapters giving an overview of 30 countries and in-depth analyses of six countries including the United States. Childlessness was common (20 percent or higher) in Europe in the nineteenth and early twentieth century, when age at marriage was high and young adults often worked as servants and maids in the households of their employers. Despite rapid changes in social and economic conditions in the early twentieth century, childlessness remained high in cohorts born between 1900 and 1920. This was in part due to the loss of men in World War I, the depression of the 1930s, and the disruption of World War II. In contrast, cohorts born around 1940 had much lower childlessness (close to 10 percent) as their peak childbearing years occurred during the prosperous 1960s. In recent decades childlessness has risen again, a trend that coincides with trends toward later marriage and lower fertility. Over the course of the twentieth century, childlessness exhibits a U shape with levels among the 1970 cohort not unusually high compared with levels at the beginning of the twentieth century. Individual countries can differ substantially from this general pattern, with the highest levels found in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland and the lowest levels in Eastern and Southern Europe. The remaining chapters examine determinants and consequences of childlessness. One of the key determinants is level of education: with few exceptions, women with higher education have higher childlessness (and lower fertility). Assisted reproductive technologies are becoming more widely used but availability varies considerably among countries. A notable consequence of childlessness is that women can work without interruption during their adult lives, thus allowing them to earn larger pensions than women who take time off to care for their offspring. Written by leading demographers and sociologists, this collection of papers provides an in-depth assessment of childlessness in Europe. It is strongest on German-speaking central Europe, weakest on Southern and Eastern Europe.

The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe, women born 1916–65

During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East.

Marriage (Still) Matters: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Trends in Childlessness in the United States

Childlessness in the United States nearly doubled between 1980 and 2000. Other dramatic changes in the U.S. population also took place over this period-notably, women's average educational attainment increased, and the proportion marrying declined-but the impact of these changes on childlessness has not been formally examined. In this article, I use data from the Current Population Survey Fertility Supplements (1995, 1998, 2004, 2008) and logistic regression and regression-based decomposition techniques to assess the contribution of changes in educational attainment, marriage behavior, and racial/ethnic composition on population levels of childlessness in the United States. Results show that increases in the proportion of women unmarried by age 40 contributed most to the increase in childlessness in the late twentieth century, although these increases were offset somewhat by increased childbearing among unmarried women. The rising proportion of women with a college degree also explained a substantial amount of the increase in childless women.

Increasing trends in childlessness in recent birth cohorts – a registry‐based study of the total Danish male population born from 1945 to 1980

The fertility rate has recently declined in many parts of the World, including Europe. To a large extent, this change can be explained by the socio-economic development. However, increasing fertility problems and widespread occurrence of poor semen quality could in part explain the few births. The objective of this registry based study was to investigate birth cohort related trends in fertility and childlessness among Danish men. The study population comprised all 1 616 677 men in Denmark born from 1945 to 1980 of whom 1 359 975 (84.1%) were native Danes. Data were obtained from Statistics Denmark and contained information from The National Danish Birth Registry and The Danish In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) Registry. For consecutive birth cohorts of native Danish men cumulative fertility rates at age 45 declined from 1.91 children per man in the 1945 birth cohort to 1.71 for men born in 1960. The proportion of childless men at age 45 increased from 14.8% to 21.9% in the same birth cohorts. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) seemed to compensate partly for the lower fertility and to reduce the proportion of childless men. In contrast, recent reports on corresponding birth cohorts of Danish women showed that the proportion remaining childless throughout life has been lower than in men and has not shown a similar increase. In conclusion, using unique Danish registries the study showed a birth cohort related decline in fertility rates and an increase in childlessness among men. In the more recent cohorts more than one in five men remained childless. The causes behind the findings are likely multi-factorial. Hitherto, most attention has been given to socio-economic factors which undoubtedly play a major role. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that the high prevalence of low sperm counts among young Danish men may be a contributing factor.

Childless or Childfree? Paths to Voluntary Childlessness in Italy

This article investigates childlessness in Italy. Trends in childlessness are presented and compared with trends elsewhere in Europe. Different paths to childlessness are outlined, using data from a survey carried out among childless women aged 40‐44 in five Italian cities in 2002. Individual characteristics of the childless and reasons for childlessness are investigated. As many as one‐third of the interviewees who live with a partner and do not suffer from any physical impediment are voluntarily childless. These women, in contrast to mothers, appear to be less religious and to have partners who are less religious; they tend to come from smaller families; to have been in a nonmarital cohabitation at least once in life; to have entered their first union later; and to have had, in the initial period of their union, temporary work and flexible work schedules and limited leisure time. In other cases, childlessness is the unintended outcome of a decision to delay having a child or the result of adverse external circumstances, particularly dissolution of partnership.

Historical Trends in Childlessness

Changes in the rates of childlessness over time are explored using European, Australian, American, and Japanese data from censuses, national registers, and large-scale surveys. The trends are remarkably similar across the countries for which data are available: a peak in childlessness rates for the 1880-1910 birth cohorts, a more or less continuous drop across the 1910-1945 birth cohorts, and a steady rise across the cohorts born after the Second World War. Thus, contemporary older adults (particularly the “young old”) belong to generations for which the proportions childless are near the minimum ever recorded. The article examines the factors associated with the changes in rates of childlessness, and more particularly trends in marriage (e.g., median age at marriage and the proportions marrying), trends in family formation (e.g., median age at the first birth and average family size), and the role of voluntary and involuntary factors.

Persistence and Change in Decisions to Remain Childless

Numerous researchers have examined the incidence, correlates, and predictors of childlessness. Few, however, have examined changes in intended childlessness because the longitudinal data required to track these changes are rare. We utilize the National Survey of Families and Households to examine trends in intentions to remain childless. We include both demographic and ideational variables in the analysis, and we focus on respondents between the ages of 19 and 39 years who had not had children at the beginning of the study. The largest group wants children but still postpone childbearing. The next largest group carries out their intention to have children. The third largest group switches from wanting children to not wanting children. Some are consistently childless in both surveys. Finally, a relatively small group did not intend to have a child in the first survey but subsequently had a child. Marital status is the most salient predictor for having children, but cohabitors also are more likely to have children than are single noncohabitors. Rates of childlessness in the United States have varied substantially over the past several decades. Morgan (1991), for example, reports that census data show slightly over 15% of White women born in the mid-1880s remained childless. This childless rate increased to over 25% of women born in 1910 who reached normal childbearing age during the Depression. The percentage then dropped dramatically to about 10% of White women born in 1935 who reached childbearing age during the baby boom. Since then, the rate has increased again, with a projected childless rate of 22% for women born in 1962 (Morgan & Chen, 1992). Non-White women experienced a similar increase in childlessness during the Depression and a similar decline during the baby boom, but they have not participated in the post-baby boom rise in childlessness to the extent that White women have (Chen & Morgan, 1991.) These fluctuations indicate that potential parents do respond to economic and social conditions, even when modern and efficient contraception is not available. (See also May, 1995, and Friedman, Hechter, & Kanazawa, 1994.) Because demographers have been concerned with population growth arising from high fertility, their explanations for why people have children are designed to explain fertility decline. Such theories provide incomplete explanations for fertility decline during demographic transition (Mason, 1997) and are even less satisfactory in accounting for the persistence of childbearing in highly developed societies (Schoen, Young, Nathanson, Fields, & Astone, 1997). New approaches to understanding why people continue to have children have been suggested (Axinn & Thornton, 1996; Friedman et al., 1994; Rovi; 1994). Given recent increases in childlessness, these new approaches also should be able to account for the decision not to have children. We examine factors related to persistence and change in decisions to remain childless. The general trends in childlessness that we have noted combine both the infertile (or involuntarily childless) and the voluntarily childless. Though such trends reflect and affect the overall structure and composition of society, the rate of involuntary childlessness has declined as a result of better health and a general decrease in sterility caused by sexually transmitted diseases. Voluntary childlessness, on the other hand, reflects the choices of potential parents and has varied substantially by period and cohort. By all accounts, voluntary childlessness has increased in recent decades. We develop and test a model of persistence and change in voluntary childlessness. EXPLANATIONS FOR VOLUNTARY CHILDLESSNESS Prevailing theories of voluntary childlessness have tended to emphasize either a rational choice approach, focusing on the costs and benefits of having children, or ideational approaches, focusing more on values and norms. …

Voluntary and involuntary childlessness in the United States, 1955-1973.

Abstract Since the early 1970s, considerable attention has been given to U. S. trends in childlessness. Studies have shown that childlessness rates have been increasing in recent years; many believe that the bulk of the increase has been due to increases in voluntary childlessness. However, there have been few methodological and empirical analyses of trends in voluntary and involuntary childlessness. This paper has two objectives: to develop two procedures for measuring voluntary and involuntary childlessness with fertility survey data; and to apply empirically these approaches to five fertility surveys conducted between 1955 and 1973.

Childless and single-childed women in early twentieth-century America.

Over the course of this century, there have been marked fluctuations in the extent of childlessness and single child fertility. In this article, data from the 1960 U.S. Census are used to examine cohort trends in childlessness and single child motherhood among women born in the years 1891-1925. A marked rise in low parity fertility is found among women who reached prime reproductive ages during the 1930s; cohorts born prior to or after these women had much lower levels of childlessness and single child fertility. This rise and fall in low parity fertility is examined in the light of theories that see its cause as due to changes in 1) demographic composition across cohorts, 2) health levels that affect fecundity and hence fertility, 3) normative prescriptions to bear children and countervailing norms, and 4) economic conditions that affect the degree to which women limit reproduction. A log linear analysis of changes in the composition of cohorts in race, age at marriage, marital history, and education shows that sociodemographic changes do not explain the upturn in low parity fertility. Through an analysis of health statistics and the medical literature, the theory that changing health levels are responsible for the rise and fall in low parity fertility is rejected. The normative and economic theories are found to be most useful in explaining trends in low parity fertility. It is argued that over the course of this century, an interaction between economic conditions and reproductive ideology has both necessitated women limiting their childbearing in times of economic depression and provided justification for this.

International variability in childlessness: a descriptive and analytical study.

This article provides a descriptive account of international trends and variability in marital childlessness. Childlessness data, gathered largely from census questions on number of children ever born, are presented for 65 countries. In discussing trends in childlessness, we introduce several procedures for measuring childlessness that are closely analogous to standard fertility measures. We also set forth a socioeconomic development model that suggests that involuntary childessness predominates among developing countries, and voluntary childlessness among developed countries. Our findings indicate considerable international variability in marital rates of childlessness.

Trends in childlessness in the United States, 1910-1975.

Abstract This paper examines trends in childlessness for ever‐married women in the United States. Data assembled from assorted census materials permit cohort and period investigations for a number of time periods, from 1910 to 1975, for various color and ethnic groups. Whether examined at the period or cohort level, the incidences in percentage rates of childlessness have varied irregularly over time. We focus particularly on the younger cohorts of white women (those beginning fecundity after 1965); they show higher rates of childlessness at each age than any of the older cohorts at similar ages in the reproductive cycle. We suggest that a major portion of the increasing rates of these younger cohorts may be attributed to increases in voluntary childlessness, which in turn may be linked to broader changes in the fabric of society regarding fertility control, contraceptive technology, female work preferences and patterns, and sexual and family norms.

Changes in childlessness in the United States: A demographic path analysis

Summary This paper describes changes in the incidence of marital childlessness among United States women since 1940 and tests a model to explain recent observed trends toward increasing childlessness. Based on U.S. Bureau of the Census sources, data are presented that indicate a substantial increase in childlessness for married women under 30 years of age since 1960. A path model is developed based on previous research on childlessness, in an attempt to explain this change. The model is composed of 1960-70 changes in (1) mean age at first marriage, (2) mean educational attainment, (3) the proportion of women in the labour force, (4) the proportion of women enrolled as students, (5) the incidence of marital disruption, and (6) the proportion of women living in urban environments. Using quarter-year age cohort data derived from the 1960 and 1970 1/100 Public Use Samples the results indicate that a substantial part of the increase in childlessness csn be explained by this model. Particularly important were increased enrolment of married women in education, labour force participation, and mean age of first marriage. The results suggest the relevance of structural changes along with birth expectation attitudes in predicting trends in childlessness in the United States.

Trends and incidence of childlessness by race: indicators of black progress over three decades.

Abstract This paper analyses the trends in childlessness of black and white ever-married women from 1940 through 1972, employing the trends as indicators of both cultural and institutional integration. It is hypothesized that rates of black and white childlessness have converged over the three decades, thus indicating that blacks have made progress into the basic structures of American society. The findings suggest two relatively distinct patterns of childlessness trends between the races by age groupings, and these patterns are somewhat at variance with one another. The implications of these findings are discussed within a cultural and institutional integration framework. Finally, trends for the future are discussed, and it is predicted that childlessness will continue to converge and increase for both racial groups in the 1970s.