Cancer Incidence Trends Research Articles

Trends of stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong province from 2012 to 2012 and predictions from 2023 to 2030

Objective: We aimed to analyse the trend of incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 and predict the development trend from 2023 to 2030. Methods: Data on incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 were obtained from Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality and age-specific mortality in different years, sexes and urban and rural areas were calculated, the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality was calculated using Joinpoint software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of stomach cancer incidence and mortality from 2023 to 2030. Results: From 2012 to 2022, the stomach cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a decreasing trend. The ASIR decreased from 27.47/100 000 in 2012 to 16.06/100 000 in 2022 (AAPC=-5.10%, P＜0.001), and the ASMR decreased from 17.69/100 000 to 11.09/100 000 (AAPC=-5.52%, P＜0.001). The ASIR and ASMR of male, female, urban and rural population also showed downward trends. The incidence and mortality rates of men were always higher than those of women, and the difference between urban and rural areas is gradually narrowing. In 2022, the ASIR (16.09/100 000 in urban and 16.03/100 000 in rural) and the ASMR (11.10/100 000 in urban and 11.08/100 000 in rural) of stomach cancer between urban and rural areas were nearly identical. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR of stomach cancer in Shandong would further decrease from 2023 to 2030 (AAPC=-0.51%, P=0.001), but the change tended to be smooth. The incidences in male (AAPC=-1.46%, P=0.010) and rural areas (AAPC=-1.21%, P＜0.001) were still expected to have a little room for decline. The trend of incidences in female and urban areas were not statistically significant. The trend of mortality was consistent with the incidence. Conclusions: The stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong shows a decreasing trend and it is expected to decrease further by 2030. However, the trend tends to be smooth, and the disease burden should be reduced as early as possible for high-risk population and high-risk factors of stomach cancer.

Abstract A102: Nationwide Racial, Ethnic, Geographic and Stage-Specific Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence among Older US Women, 2001-2019

Abstract Purpose: Breast Cancer (BC) incidence is increasing among younger women with significant variation by race, ethnicity, and geography. Yet, few studies have described trends and possible social disparities among the oldest women (65+), typically grouping older women into a single age category, despite age-related variation in screening guidelines (e.g., no longer recommending routine screening beyond age 74 or limited life expectancy). We assessed trends in US BC incidence rates among 3 separate age groups of older women (65-74y, 75-84y, 85+) by stage at diagnosis, race, ethnicity, and geography. Methods: To cover all 50 US states, we used the US Cancer Statistics (USCS) public use database, 2022 submission of NCPR and SEER incidence data to obtain annual BC incidence rates from 2001-2019, age adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. We used Joinpoint regression to obtain the average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in BC incidence rates for each age group over the time period stratified by disease stage at diagnosis, race/ethnicity, metropolitan status, and region. Results: From 2001-2019, overall BC incidence rates per 100,000 were 530.4, 515.3, and 376.8 for ages 65-74, 75-84, and 85+, respectively. During this period, incidence increased by 0.4% (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.6) per year in women aged 65-74, remained stable in women aged 75-84 years, and decreased by 1.1% (95% CI: -1.4 to -0.8) per year in women aged 85+ years. In all age groups, there was a decline in regional stage (AAPCs range -0.8 to -0.9) and an increase in distant stage (AAPCs range: 1.1- 1.6). However, in situ and localized stage trends varied by age group (e.g., both increased in 65- 74, but decreased for 85+). For all stages combined, in the 65-74 year-old age group, non- Hispanic Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, and Hispanic women had 7-11 times the rate of average annual percent increase compared to non-Hispanic White women (AAPCs: 1.6, 1.8, 2.2, and 1.4 vs. 0.2, respectively). Rates increased for non-Hispanic Black and Asian/Pacific Islander women (AAPCs: 1.0 and 0.9, respectively) in the 75-84 year old age group and decreased for non-Hispanic White and Hispanic women aged 85+ (AAPCs: -1.0 and -1.3, respectively). Age-specific trends did not vary by metropolitan status, though BC incidence rates were lower in non-metropolitan vs. metropolitan areas across all age groups (non- metropolitan vs. metropolitan rate ratio range: 0.90-0.95). BC incidence in 65-74 year-old women increased from 2001-2019 in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, increased in the Northeast (AAPC: 0.2) and decreased in the West for ages 75-84, (AAPC: -0.6), and decreased in all 4 regions of the US (AAPC range: -0.7 to -1.5) in the 85+ year-old age group. Conclusions: As previously reported for younger women, these findings support racial, geographic, and stage- specific BC variation in trends are also observed for older women. Further research should examine the contribution of screening practices to these trends and their impact on BC mortality disparities among older women. Citation Format: Erica Lee Argov, Anita Karr, Michelle Lui, Parisa Tehranifar, Rebecca Kehm. Nationwide Racial, Ethnic, Geographic and Stage-Specific Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence among Older US Women, 2001-2019 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr A102.

Abstract A010: Evaluating the aftermath of two major hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer Incidence in Puerto Rico: An interrupted time-series analysis

Abstract Background - In recent years, events like hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly impacted the daily lives and the healthcare system in Puerto Rico (PR). We aimed to evaluate the effect of these disruptions on lung cancer incidence. Methods - An interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was conducted to assess the impact of hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer incidence trends. To achieve this, the data was modeled using first-order autoregression through Prais-Winsten AR(1) regression. Monthly lung cancer cases from 2012 to 2021 were obtained from the PR Central Cancer Registry database. The analysis was divided into three periods: 1) pre-hurricanes (January 2012-August 2017), 2) post-hurricanes (September 2017-March 2020), and 3) onset of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions (April 2020-December 2021). Additionally, we measured the impact of the events by comparing the change in cases with the expected cases in the absence of the disruptions. Results - A steady trend was observed in monthly overall lung cancer cases during the pre-hurricane period. Immediately after the two major hurricanes, there was an immediate decrease of 10.2 cases, representing a 16.1% decline compared to the expected lung cancer cases. During the post-hurricanes period, lung cancer cases exhibited a significant upward trend, eventually surpassing the expected number. However, another decline in lung cancer cases was observed with the onset of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, representing a 22.9% decline compared to the expected cases. This decline was followed by a significant upward trend of 0.67 cases per month until the end of 2021, once again surpassing the expected number of cases. Similar patterns were observed by age group and for late-stage cases. However, early-stage lung cancer showed a higher percentage difference at the start of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions compared to the other groups and did not surpass the expected number of cases by the end of the study. Conclusion - Our results demonstrate the impact of hurricanes and the COVID-19 lockdown on lung cancer incidence in PR. These disruptions led to limited access to healthcare, particularly diagnostic and screening services, as evidenced by the decrease in lung cancer cases. Although lung cancer cases gradually returned to the expected levels in the absence of disruptions, the long-term effects of delayed diagnoses due to these events should be closely monitored. Citation Format: Tonatiuh Suárez-Ramos, Carlos Torres-Cintrón, Yisel Pagán-Santana. Evaluating the aftermath of two major hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer Incidence in Puerto Rico: An interrupted time-series analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr A010.

Trends in Cancer Incidence and Mortality in US Adolescents and Young Adults, 2016-2021.

(1) Background: The incidence rate of early onset-cancer (<50) has increased since 1995. Among younger people, cancers in AYAs (aged 15-39 y) are often biologically distinct tumors from those treated in the pediatric and older adult population. The current study describes trends in the United States for the most recent years including the first year of the COVID-19 epidemic. We aimed to describe the recent incidence and mortality trends of cancers in AYAs (aged 15-39 y). (2) Methods: We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 22) from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2021. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were assessed by SEER*Stat 8.4.3 for major cancer types by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status. Time trends of age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were examined by sex and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status. (3) Results: Age-adjusted overall cancer incidence and mortality rates were stable during this study period. The age-adjusted incidence rates declined significantly for ependymoma, melanoma, carcinomas of lung, bronchus, and trachea, unspecified malignant neoplasms, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Significant increases were found for gastrointestinal tract cancers and non-Kaposi sarcomas. The age-adjusted mortality rate decreased for acute myeloid leukemia, melanoma, carcinomas of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts, kidney and, in women, leukemia. For some cancers, rates differed by sex, race, ethnicity, and geography. Monitoring the rates and time trends of AYA cancer emphasizes the distinct health concern for this age group.

Exploring Prostate Cancer Incidence Trends and Age Change in Cancer Registration Areas of Jiangsu Province, China, 2009 to 2019.

(1) Background: Over the past few decades, Jiangsu Province, China, has witnessed a remarkable surge in the incidence of prostate cancer (PCa), accompanied by notable demographic shifts; (2) Methods: PCa data for Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 were obtained from the Jiangsu Cancer Registry. We calculated crude and age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs), average age at onset, and age-specific composition ratios. Standardization was performed based on the Segi's world population. Birth cohorts (1929-2019) were analyzed to assess PCa incidence by birth year. Trend analysis was conducted using the Joinpoint Regression Model, and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed. A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the average age at diagnosis and calendar years; (3) Results: The ASIRs of PCa in Jiangsu Province increased significantly, with an AAPC of 11.25% (95%CI: 10.09%, 12.42%) from 2009 to 2019. This increase was observed across all age groups, particularly among those aged 0-59 years. Birth cohort analysis revealed a rising trend with earlier birth years showing higher incidence, notably in the 1959 cohort. In rural areas, the age-standardized average age at onset of PCa decreased from 75.45 years in 2009 to 73.39 years in 2019, and the peak age group shifted from 75-79 years in 2009 to 70-74 years in 2019; (4) Conclusions: The rising incidence of PCa in Jiangsu Province, along with an increased proportion of cases in younger age groups, highlights the need for targeted interventions.

Trends of older gastric cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China: 2010–2019 and prediction to 2024

BackgroundGastric cancer is a major health problem worldwide, with a high incidence among older adults. Given the aging overall population, it was crucial to understand the current burden and prospective trend of older gastric cancer. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of older gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China from 2010 to 2019, and to predict the future burden of older gastric cancer up to 2024.MethodsThe study was conducted in Gansu province, an area characterized by the highest gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China. The registration data of gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2019 were pooled from registries in the Gansu Cancer Registration System, while survival data were collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, and Gansu Cancer Hospital. Chinese standard population in 2000 and the Segi’s world standard population were applied to calculate the age-standardized rate. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cancer incidence and mortality. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to generate forecasts for incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2024.ResultsBased on registry data from 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among older adults remained stable. The incidence rates declined from 439.65 per 100,000 in 2010 to 330.40 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.59% (95% confidence interval[CI], -5.14 to 0.04, P = 0.06). Similarly, the mortality rate changed from 366.98 per 100,000 in 2010 to 262.03 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.55% (95% CI, -8.77–4.08%, P = 0.44). In the hospital-based cohort, the decline in survival rates was reported among older patients with gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, with the 3-year overall survival (OS) decreasing from 58.5% (95% CI, 53.5–63.2%) in 2010 to 34.4% (95%CI, 32.1–36.7%) in 2019, and the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) decreasing from 51.3% (95%CI, 47.5–55.1%) in 2010 to 34.2% (95%CI, 32.0–36.3%) in 2019, respectively. Moreover, forecasts generated by ARIMA models revealed a significant decline in the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer in China from 2020 to 2024. Specifically, the incidence rate of older gastric cancer was expected to decrease from 317.94 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 205.59 per 100,000 population in 2024, while the anticipated mortality rate was estimated to decrease from 222.52 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 186.22 per 100,000 population in 2024.ConclusionFrom 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer remained stable in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, while the survival rates showed a decline. Based on the ARIMA models, it was anticipated that there might be a continued decline in older gastric cancer incidence and mortality in the highest-risk area in China over the next five years.

Cancer incidence (2000–2020) among individuals under 35: an emerging sex disparity in oncology

BackgroundAggressive malignancies, such as pancreatic cancer, are increasingly impacting young, female populations. Our investigation centered on whether the observed trends in cancer incidence were unique to pancreatic cancer or indicative of a broader trend across various cancer types. To delve deeper into this phenomenon, we analyzed cancer incidence trends across different age and sex groups. Furthermore, we explored differences in cancer incidence within specific young subgroups aged 18 to 26 and 27 to 34, to better understand the emerging incidence trend among young individuals.MethodsThis study collected cancer incidence data from one of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry databases (SEER22), with 10,183,928 total cases from 2000 to 2020. Data were analyzed through Joinpoint trend analysis approach to evaluate sex- and age-specific trends in cancer incidence. Exposure rates were reported as Average Annual Percentage Changes (AAPCs).ResultsThe analysis revealed significant age and sex-specific disparities, particularly among individuals aged 18–26 and 27–34. Pancreatic cancer incidence rates increased more in females aged 18–26 (AAPC, 9.37% [95% CI, 7.36–11.41%]; p < .0001) than in males (4.43% [95% CI, 2.36–6.53%]; p < .0001). Notably, among gender, age, and other malignancies, young females had the highest AAPCs for pancreatic cancer. Additionally, the incidence of gastric cancer, myeloma, and colorectal malignancies also showed higher AAPCs in young females compared to males.ConclusionsRecognizing emerging risk populations for highly lethal malignancies is crucial for early detection and effective disease management.

Improving the Clinical Utility of Platelet Count for Cancer Detection in Primary Care: A Cohort Study in England, Canada, and Australia.

The platelet count, a component of the full blood count, has been identified as a useful diagnostic marker for cancer in primary care. The reference range for the platelet count is 150 to 400 or 450 × 109/L; this range does not account for natural variation in platelet count by age and sex. This study used three primary care cohorts from England, Canada, and Australia. Patients aged 40 years and over with a full blood count were included and stratified by age (in 10-year bands), sex, (male/female), and platelet count group. Cancer incidence within one year of the test date was estimated from linked registry data. In all three countries, there was a clear upwards trend in cancer incidence with increasing platelet count for both sexes and at all age groups. Lung and colorectal were the most common sites. These results have important implications for the international application of this work; analysis of local health datasets will be crucial to determining appropriate thresholds. Appropriate upper thresholds will depend on local populations, healthcare needs, and priorities. Further research is needed to assess the likely impact of new recommendations on the healthcare system, on cancer outcomes, and patient benefit.

Incidence Trends in Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer in Young Adults: A Nationwide Time-Trend Analysis Using 2001-2019 US Cancer Statistics Databases.

Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancers, comprising malignancies of the esophagus, stomach, duodenum, pancreas, liver, biliary tract, and gallbladder, are the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States and are associated with significant comorbidities. Recent studies show a disproportionate rise in pancreatic and stomach cancer among young adults. This study aims to use a nationwide, population-based cohort to (i) evaluate the trend of all UGI cancer as an aggregate and (ii) examine the role of demographics, histology, and tumor stage in UGI cancer incidence among young adults. Individuals diagnosed with UGI cancer in the United States from 2001 to 2019 were identified and obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-National Program of Cancer Registries database. The primary outcomes were incidence rates of UGI cancer (calculated per 100,000, age-adjusted to the year 2000 US population), stratified by sex and age (< 55 years for young adults and ≥ 55 years for older adults). Trends, annual percentage change, and average annual percentage change were calculated using the parametric method. Sensitivity analysis was performed according to primary site and histology; further analysis examining race and cancer stage was performed in the young adult subgroup. A total of 2,333,161 patients with UGI cancer were identified. Most cases were male, and 14.3% were < 55 years of age. Incidence of UGI cancer increased most in women younger than 55 years, driven primarily by pancreatic and stomach cancers, as well as neuroendocrine tumor and gastrointestinal stromal tumor histology. African American race and localized tumors and malignancy with distant spread are also contributing to the disparate increase among young women. UGI mortality rates have not changed significantly in young adults. The overall incidence rate of upper gastrointestinal cancer is increasing significantly in young women compared with men. Increased endoscopic procedures and disparate exposure to risk factors are likely contributing to these trends.

Trends in Stage-Specific Kidney Cancer Incidence in Kazakhstan, 2005-2019.

The aim is to analyze the incidence of kidney cancer over a 15-year period, considering factors such as stage, age, sex, and morphological verification in the regional context in Kazakhstan. The retrospective study was done using descriptive and analytical methods of oncoepidemiology. The extensive, crude and age-specific incidence rates are determined according to the generally accepted methodology used in sanitary statistics. The data were used to calculate the average percentage change (APС) using the Joinpoint regression analysis to determine the trend over the study period. Among the meticulously documented 15,277 cases, a conspicuous male predominance was noted, comprising 53.7% of cases compared to 46.3% in females, with peak incidences observed within the 50-69 age cohorts. The average age at diagnosis exhibited a progressive rise over the study period, with discernible variations observed in age-specific incidence rates, particularly pronounced within the 60-84 age brackets. Noteworthy temporal trends indicated a consistent uptick in crude incidence rates, with distinct regional disparities manifesting higher rates in northern regions relative to their southern and western counterparts. Stratification by cancer stage unveiled a significant surge in stages I-II cases alongside a concomitant decrement in stage III incidences, complemented by reductions in stage IV occurrences and instances of unspecified disease stages. Morphological verification rates displayed regional variations, with an overarching ascending trajectory across most regions, albeit exceptions noted, notably in the Kyzylorda region. Our study identified a rise in kidney cancer incidence in Kazakhstan, likely reflecting global trends driven by increased risk factor exposure and incidental imaging findings. Regional disparities and varied stage distributions highlight the complexity of kidney cancer epidemiology. Despite advancements in early detection, delayed diagnosis persists, necessitating improved surveillance and diagnostic practices.

Trends in incidence and mortality for gynaecological cancers in Southeastern China during 2011–2020: a retrospective analysis of registry data

ObjectivesThis study aimed to investigate the changes in the incidence and mortality trends of ovarian cancer (OC), cervical cancer (CC) and uterine cancer (UC) in the Fujian Province, southeastern China.DesignProvincial,...

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Iraq during the period 2005-2019

Lung cancer, a prominent global malignancy and a significant contributor to cancer-related deaths, was examined in Iraq from 2005 to 2019 using data from the cancer registry. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), categorized by sex and age at diagnosis, were analyzed to identify trends, utilizing annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). During the 2005-2019 period, ASIR was 18.339/100,000 for males and 5.861/100,000 for females. Lung cancer ASIR experienced a notable 48.027% increase, starting at 9.426/100,000 in 2005 and reaching 13.953/100,000 in the most recent year. The rates demonstrated significant growth, with AAPC values of +2.857% for both sexes, +2.495% for males, and +4.474% for females. The highest incidences of lung cancer were among the elderly (70+ years) in both sexes, particularly pronounced in females (8.961%) and males (5.601%). In contrast, the lowest rates were found in individuals aged 0 to 49 years, showing negative APC values: -1.359% (males) and -0.843% (females). The study underscores the escalating prevalence of lung cancer in Iraq, particularly impacting older females. Urgent and targeted efforts are necessary to mitigate the rising incidence rates.

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF BREAST CANCER IN THE ARAB REGION BETWEEN 1999 AND 2024: A NARRATIVE REVIEW

Breast cancer (BC) poses a significant health challenge in both developed and developing countries, with limited research in the Arab region compared to the West. The aim of this review was to provide a comprehensive perspective on breast cancer incidence and mortality trends between 1999 and 2024, considering diverse socio-cultural and economic factors.A thorough literature review was conducted using sources such as PubMed, Medline, and recent WHO publications. Findings revealed that the incidence of breast cancer in the Arab world increased gradually during the period studied. However, the incidence of breast cancer among women in the Arab region was lower than the global average, and the mortality rate among women with breast cancer in the Arab region was lower than the global average. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates have increased since 1990.The country-specific data showed that the more developed Arab countries tended to have a higher burden of breast cancer. Factors such as urbanization, increased life expectancy, and adoption of westernized lifestyles have been associated with the observed increase in breast cancer rates. Despite promising breast cancer screening initiatives, most Arab countries lack a structured universal screening program and participation rates are very low.The increasing incidence and burden of BC in the Arab region is remarkable, especially considering the limited resources of developing countries in this region. Appropriate strategies such as expansion of screening programs and careful resource management are needed to effectively manage the burden of BC.

A population-based study on incidence trends of small intestine cancer in the United States from 2000 to 2020.

Although rare, small intestine cancer is on the rise in the developed world. We aimed to investigate the incidence trends of small intestine cancer by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and histological subgroups in the United States (US) over 2000-2020. Also, we evaluated the COVID-19 impacts on the incidence trends of this cancer. Data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22 database. Both the average annual percent change (AAPC) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were determined. The findings were expressed as counts and incidence rates adjusted for age per 100,000 people with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 67,815 cases of small intestine cancer across all age groups were reported in the US between 2000 and 2019. Neuroendocrine carcinoma was the most often reported subtype (54.26%). The age group of 55 to 69 years (38.08%), men (53.10%), and Non-Hispanic Whites (69.07%) accounted for the majority of cases. Over 2000-2019, the ASIRs for small intestine cancer among men and women were 2.61 (95% CI: 2.59-2.64) and 1.92 (95% CI: 1.89-1.94) per 100,000, indicating a significant increase of 2.01% and 2.12%, respectively. Non-Hispanic Black men had the highest ASIR (4.25 per 100,000). Also, those aged 80-84 age group had the highest ASIR. During COVID-19, the ASIR of small intestine cancer decreased by 8.94% (5.06-12.81%). Small intestine cancer incidence raised in all sexes and ethnicities. Following COVID-19, reported cases declined, possibly due to pandemic-related diagnostic challenges. The impact of underdiagnosis on patient survival needs further investigations.

Trends in incidence, prevalence, and survival of breast cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000 to 2021

Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in females globally. However, we know relatively little about trends in males. This study describes United Kingdom (UK) secular trends in breast cancer from 2000 to 2021 for both sexes. We describe a population-based cohort study using UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and Aurum databases. There were 5,848,436 eligible females and 5,539,681 males aged 18+ years, with ≥ one year of prior data availability in the study period. We estimated crude breast cancer incidence rates (IR), prevalence and survival probability at one-, five- and 10-years after diagnosis using the Kaplan–Meier method. Analyses were further stratified by age. Crude IR of breast cancer from 2000 to 2021 was 194.4 per 100,000 person-years for females and 1.16 for males. Crude prevalence in 2021 was 2.1% for females and 0.009% for males. Both sexes have seen around a 2.5-fold increase in prevalence across time. Incidence increased with age for both sexes, peaking in females aged 60–69 years and males 90+ . There was a drop in incidence for females aged 70–79 years. From 2003–2019, incidence increased > twofold in younger females (aged 18–29: IR 2.12 in 2003 vs. 4.58 in 2018); decreased in females aged 50–69 years; and further declined from 2015 onwards in females aged 70–89 years. Survival probability for females after one-, five-, and ten-years after diagnosis was 95.1%, 80.2%, and 68.4%, and for males 92.9%, 69.0%, and 51.3%. Survival probability at one-year increased by 2.08% points, and survival at five years increased by 5.39% from 2000–2004 to 2015–2019 for females, particularly those aged 50–70 years. For males, there were no clear time-trends for short-term and long-term survival probability. Changes in incidence of breast cancer in females largely reflect the success of screening programmes, as rates rise and fall in synchronicity with ages of eligibility for such programmes. Overall survival from breast cancer for females has improved from 2000 to 2021, again reflecting the success of screening programmes, early diagnosis, and improvements in treatments. Male breast cancer patients have worse survival outcomes compared to females, highlighting the need to develop male-specific diagnosis and treatment strategies to improve long-term survival in line with females.

Interacting trends of colorectal cancer incidence: the combined effects of screening and birth cohort.

Colorectal cancer remains a major global public health challenge. Its incidence is shaped by a complex interplay of screening programmes and age, period and cohort factors. We introduce a novel Age-Period-Cohort-Screening (APCS) model to analyse trends in colorectal cancer incidence in Taiwan from 2000 to 2019. In 2010, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Taiwan increased by 19.2% (95% CI: 13.5%, 25.3%) for men and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 22.4%) for women. This was followed by annual declines of 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8%, 4.1%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.9%), respectively. By 2015 for men and 2014 for women, the age-standardized incidence had fallen below the levels projected in a no-screening scenario. By 2019, the incidence had further declined by 12.4% (95% CI: 11.8%, 13.1%) for men and 11.6% (95% CI: 10.7%, 12.6%) for women, compared with the no-screening scenario. Cohort effects have shown a persistent rise from 1920 to 1980: incidence increased 5.8-fold for men and 3.1-fold for women. The trend began to plateau after 1980, with a noticeable decline in women. Through its screening programme, Taiwan has successfully reduced colorectal cancer incidence by 10% as of 2019. Furthermore, the incidence due to cohort effects has plateaued and even begun to decline. However, continued monitoring remains crucial. The advanced APCS model could serve as a robust analytical tool for other researchers and policy makers evaluating the impacts of cancer screening programmes on incidence trends.

Recent cervical cancer incidence, stage at diagnosis, and mortality trends in Puerto Rico, 2001–2019

BackgroundCervical cancer incidence is rising in Puerto Rico (PR). Whether the increase is real or reflective of increased diagnostic scrutiny remains unclear.MethodsUsing data from the PR Central Cancer Registry for 2001–2019, we estimated trends of hysterectomy-corrected cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates, overall, and by stage at diagnosis and age.ResultsOverall, cervical cancer incidence (per 100,000) increased 1.6%/year (95% CI, -0.5% to 3.8%) from 12.5 to 15.3, with a prominent increase in distant-stage disease (4.5%/year [95% CI, 1.6% to 8.0%]), particularly among screening age eligible (25–64-year-old) women (5.8%/year [95% CI, 2.1% to 10.6%]). Mortality rates in this age-group remained stable during the study period.ConclusionsIncreased occurrence of distant-stage disease among screening-eligible women is troubling and may reflect a real increase. Future research is needed to elucidate the factors underlying these trends. Improved prevention is also an urgent priority to reverse the rising cervical cancer incidence in PR.

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma incidence, mortality, and survival trends in Brunei Darussalam from 2011 to 2020

BackgroundNon-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) has been identified as a significant contributor to the cancer burden. This study investigates the incidence, mortality, and survival trends of NHL cancer in Brunei Darussalam from 2011 to 2020.MethodsThis is a registry-based retrospective study using de-identified data from the Brunei Darussalam Cancer Registry on patients diagnosed with NHL from 2011 to 2020 based on the ICD-10 codes C82-86. Statistical methods include descriptive statistics, age-specific and age-standardised incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR), and joinpoint regression for trend analysis. Survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier plots, log-rank test, and Cox Proportional Hazards regression.ResultsFrom 2011 to 2020, 330 patients were diagnosed with NHL. The majority of patients were males (51.8%) and of Malay descent (82.7%). The age group most diagnosed was 55–74 years (42.3%), with a mean age at diagnosis being 55.1 years. The ASIRs were 12.12 for males and 10.39 per 100,000 for females; ASMRs were 6.11 for males and 4.76 per 100,000 for females. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma was the most prevalent subtype, accounting for 39.1% of cases. The overall 5-year survival rate was 61.2%, with lower rates observed in older patients and those diagnosed at distant metastasis stage. Furthermore, older age and advanced stage diagnosis significantly increased mortality risk. NHL incidence and mortality rates in Brunei Darussalam remain stable over the period of 10 years, but highlights significant disparities in gender and age.ConclusionsThe findings emphasize the importance of early detection and tailored treatments, especially for high-risk groups, in managing NHL’s burden. These insights underline the need for focused healthcare strategies and continued research to address NHL’s challenges.

Decreasing trend in thyroid cancer incidence: a study from central Italy (2007-2019).

Due to overdiagnosis, the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has increased in high-income countries, including Italy. Efforts have been made to address this issue since the mid-2010s, but more information is needed about how TC incidence has changed. We aim to examine the trend in TC incidence in the Lazio Region (central Italy) and assess the impact of the 2014 Italian Consensus for the Classification and Reporting of Thyroid Cytology (ICCRTC) to identify potential changes in TC diagnosis. To identify TC cases, we conducted a population-based study (period 2007-2019) using the data from the Lazio Region Cancer Registry (5.8 million residents). We calculated the annual age-standardized incidence rates of TC for both sexes and analyzed the impact of ICCRTC on monthly incidence rates using segmented linear regression applied to interrupted time-series (ITS). Throughout the 13 years, there was a significant decline in TC annual incidence rates, more pronounced in females. Our results are consistent with reports from outside Europe (United States and South Korea). Following ICCRTC implementation in 2014, a step-change reduction in both sexes was revealed. Our study indicates a significant decrease in the incidence of TC, particularly among females. The ITS analysis highlights the possible role of ICCRTC in reducing overdiagnosis. As the Lazio Region reflects the Italian population in terms of various demographic, health, and lifestyle indicators, our findings can be applicable at the national level.

Exploring Cancer Incidence Trends by Age and Sex Among 14.14 Million Individuals in China From 2007 to 2021: Population-Based Study.

Sex is a crucial factor in the development, progression, and treatment of cancer, making it vital to examine cancer incidence trends by sex for effective prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess the incidence of cancer in China between 2007 and 2021, with a focus on sex-based trends. A population-based cancer registry comprising 14.14 million individuals was maintained between 2007 and 2021 by the Beijing Municipal Health Big Data and Policy Research Center. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cancers were calculated using the Segi population. The average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression model, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict cancer incidence in the next 10 years. From 2007 to 2021, the study included 651,342 incident patients with cancer, of whom 51.2% (n=333,577) were women. The incidence indicated by the ASR for all cancers combined was 200.8 per 100,000 for women and 184.4 per 100,000 for men. The increase in incidence indicated by AAPC for all malignancies combined significantly increased in women between 2007 and 2021 (AAPC=3.1%; P<.001), whereas it remained constant in men (AAPC=0.3%; P=.30). Although the overall incidence of all cancers indicated by AAPC increased in young men (AAPC=3.2%; P=.01), the greatest increase was observed among young women (AAPC=6.1%; P<.001). The incidence rate ratio for cancer in women increased among subsequent younger generations compared with patients born in the 1962-1966 cohort. The ASR in women will increase 1.6-fold over the next 10 years, with women having twice the incidence rate of men by 2031. The rising incidence of cancer among women in China has become a growing concern, emphasizing the need for increased efforts in cancer prevention and early screening, especially among young women.