Trends In California Research Articles

Lung cancer incidence trends in California by race/ethnicity, histology, sex, and neighborhood socioeconomic status: An analysis spanning 28 years

ObjectivesLung cancer incidence trends by histology, sex, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) have not been previously reported. We conducted a population-based study of lung cancer incidence over three peri-censal periods: 1988–1992, 1998–2002, and 2008–2012. Materials and methodsWe abstracted lung cancer cases from the California Cancer Registry and used US Census and American Community Survey data to develop multidimensional nSES indices for each census period. We calculated nSES tertile-specific incidence rates and rate ratios for each peri-censal period and used incidence rate ratios (IRR) to assess changes in rates from 1988 to 1992 to 1998–2002 and 2008–2012. ResultsThere were a total of 231,205 lung cancer cases. Males: Among males, incidence rates of lung cancer decreased over time, all race/ethnicities, and all nSES tertiles, with larger declines among males in higher nSES areas. Rates either declined or were stable for adenocarcinoma, with larger declines for other histologic subtypes. Females: Among females, declines in incidence rates of lung cancer were more pronounced for females in higher nSES areas, but diverged more so than for males, with variations by histology and race/ethnicity. Incidence rates of adenocarcinoma increased over time among all females, with greater increase among females in low nSES areas. ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate differences in incidence trends over three decades by histology, gender, race/ethnicity, and nSES. While incidence rates consistently declined over time for males, there were greater declines in incidence for high nSES populations. In contrast, among females, there was evidence of increases in lung cancer incidence among low SES API females, and for adenocarcinoma.

Tobacco use disparities by racial/ethnic groups: California compared to the United States

Racial/ethnic disparities in cigarette use and cessation persist. This study compared cigarette consumption and former smoking trends in California (CA) with the rest of the United States (US) by racial/ethnic categories of non-Hispanic White, Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian/Pacific Islander groups. Data were analyzed from the 1992 to 2011 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Consumption levels across decades were examined and adjusted logistic regression models were fit to compare across CA and US.Results indicated steady declines in ever smoking prevalence for all groups with much lower magnitudes of change among US Blacks and Whites compared to their CA counterparts. After controlling for age, gender, and education, CA had significantly fewer heavy smokers (OR=0.45, 95% CI:0.38–0.54), more light and intermittent smokers (LITS; OR=1.68, 95%CI: 1.45–1.93), and a greater proportion of former smokers (OR=1.35, 95%CI: 1.24–1.48) than the rest of US. Data were stratified by race/ethnicity and the patterns shown were mostly consistent with CA performing statistically better than their US counterparts with the exception of Black LITS and Asian/Pacific Islander former smokers. California's success in reducing tobacco use disparities may serve as a prime example of tobacco control policy for the country. CA and the US will need to continue to address tobacco use and cessation in the context of the growing diversity of the population.

Colorectal Cancer Trends in California and the Need for Greater Screening of Hispanic Men.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates have decreased dramatically since 1990, both nationally and in California, except among Hispanic men. This study examined trends in CRC incidence, mortality, and survival to determine likely contributing factors for the differential trends between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white men in California. California Cancer Registry data were used to identify 23,157 Hispanic and 114,944 white men diagnosed with CRC between 1990 and 2012. Joinpoint trends in incidence, mortality, and 5-year relative survival were examined by age, stage at diagnosis, and tumor location. Data used in the study were extracted from the California Cancer Registry database and analyzed in 2015. Both incidence and mortality rates decreased substantially among white men between 1990 and 2012, but no corresponding decrease was observed among Hispanic men. Both groups experienced similar trends in survival and stage at diagnosis over time. White men had greater declines in CRC incidence and mortality in all age groups, particularly those aged >50 years. Hispanic men had a significantly higher proportion (65%) of tumors in the distal colon than white men (59%). CRC incidence and mortality rates have decreased among white men since 1990, but not among Hispanic men. Results from this study suggest lower screening rates may be an important reason why CRC rates in California did not decline in Hispanic men. Effective strategies aimed at both Hispanics and their healthcare providers are needed to increase CRC screening among Hispanic men and reduce their CRC burden.

Ethnic Disparities in Trends in High BMI Among California Adolescents, 2003-2012.

Because California is home to one in eight U.S. children and accounts for the highest Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program spending, childhood obesity trends in California have important implications for the entire nation. California's racial/ethnic diversity and large school-based data set provide a unique opportunity to examine trends by race/ethnicity, including understudied Asian and American Indian youth, which has not been possible using national data sets. This study examined racial/ethnic disparities in prevalence of high BMI from 2003 to 2012. This observational study included 11,624,865 BMI records from repeated cross-sections of fifth-, seventh-, and ninth-graders who underwent California's school-based fitness testing. Analyses conducted in 2015 used logistic regression to identify trends in prevalence of high BMI (BMI ≥85th, 95th, and 97th percentiles) and differences in trends by race/ethnicity from 2003 to 2012. African American and Hispanic girls and American Indian boys increased in prevalence of high BMI, whereas non-Hispanic white and Asian youth and Hispanic boys decreased in prevalence of high BMI (p-values<0.05) from 2003 to 2012. Over this period, African American, Hispanic, and American Indian youth had higher slopes for trends in high BMI than non-Hispanic white youth (p-values<0.05). Based on California's statewide data, there is evidence that racial/ethnic disparities in prevalence of high BMI have widened over time. Minority youth have either decreased more slowly or increased in prevalence compared with non-Hispanic white youth. There continues to be an urgent need for policies and interventions that effectively reduce racial/ethnic obesity prevalence disparities.

How Do You Eat an Elephant? Reducing Mass Incarceration in California One Small Bite at a Time

While most states are considering reducing the impact of mass incarceration in their prison systems, few states have faced a larger challenge than California, and few states have reduced their convict and parole population as much as California. Federal court intervention and a series of legislative and voter-initiated reforms in California have changed the landscape in one of the nation’s largest criminal justice systems. This article draws on a variety of data sources to explore a potentially historic moment in the quest to end mass incarceration; it remains to be seen whether the public debate over appropriate punishments changed among criminal justice interest groups, such as corrections officers, law enforcement, prosecutors, the judiciary, victim advocates, and liberal and conservative spokespersons. Has the fear of crime among the citizenry changed, and has the public embraced a different response to lawbreakers? There have been important law changes that reduce some felonies to lesser crimes and incentives to punish offenders in local corrections rather than state prisons (known as Realignment), but genuine reductions in mass incarceration will require even more actions. Based on my review of California trends in crime, punishment, and public opinion, I argue that even while there will likely be more progress in decriminalizing drug crimes and other nonviolent crimes, public attitudes toward more serious offenders will be decisive in forecasting the future of mass imprisonment and the California prison gulag. At present, California is pursuing an incremental approach to reducing the numbers in prison for very serious crimes. Reform of prisons is likely to consist of small bites of change in sentencing and parole policies.

Trends in selected ambient volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and a comparison to mobile source emission trends in California's South Coast Air Basin

Abstract Trends in ambient concentrations of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) are compared to trends in VOC emissions from Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles (LDGV) tested on chassis dynamometers and to trends observed in tunnel studies during the same period to understand the impacts of gasoline vehicle emissions on ambient VOC concentrations from 1999 to 2009. Annual median concentrations for most ambient VOCs decreased 40% from 1999 to 2009 in the SoCAB, based on data from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS). Annual concentration decreases of most compounds, except 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, are highly correlated with the decrease of acetylene, a marker for tailpipe emissions from LDGV. This indicates that ambient VOC concentration decreases were likely due to tailpipe emission reductions from gasoline vehicles. Air Toxics Monitoring Network data also support this conclusion. Benzene concentration-normalized ratios for most compounds except ethane, propane, isoprene, and 2,2,4-trimethylpentane were stable even as these compound concentrations decreased significantly from 1999 to 2009. Such stability suggests that the main sources of ambient VOC were still the same from 1999 to 2009. The comparison of trends in dynamometer testing and tunnel studies also shows that tailpipe emissions remained the dominant source of tunnel LDGV emissions. The pronounced changes in 2,2,4-trimethylpentane ratios due to the introduction of Phase 3 gasoline also confirm the substantial impact of LDGV emissions on ambient VOCs. Diurnal ambient VOC data also suggest that LDGV tailpipe emissions remained the dominant source of ambient VOCs in the SoCAB in 2009. Our conclusion, which is that current inventory models underestimate VOC emissions from mobile sources, is consistent with that of several recent studies of ambient trends in the SoCAB. Our study showed that tailpipe emissions remained a bigger contributor to ambient VOCs than evaporative emissions from LDGV's. This finding is also different from EMFAC estimates.

WEST NILE VIRUS-RELATED TRENDS IN AVIAN MORTALITY IN CALIFORNIA, USA, 2003-12.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an arbovirus transmitted enzootically by Culex mosquitoes among avian hosts. Since 2000, the California Dead Bird Surveillance Program (DBSP) has tracked avian mortality reported by the public on a telephone hotline and website and measured the prevalence of WNV infection in dead birds. We summarize herein WNV prevalence in dead birds tested and variation of WNV transmission over time and space with the use of DBSP data from 2003 to 2012. Prevalence among dead birds was highest in 2004, 2008, and 2012. This pattern was similar to peak WNV infection years for mosquitoes but not to human WNV incidence. Although American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) were most frequently reported and tested, this species ranked third in infection prevalence (44%) after Yellow-billed Magpies (Pica nuttalli; 62%) and Western Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma californica; 48%). Overall prevalence in American Robin (Turdus migratorius), House Finch (Haemorhous mexicanus), and House Sparrow (Passer domesticus) carcasses ranged from 18% to 22%. Corvid WNV prevalence was highest in South Coast, Bay/Delta, Sacramento, and San Joaquin valleys, and Klamath/North Coast bioregions, overlapping areas of elevated WNV activity in other surveillance measurements. Bioregional analysis revealed the avian species most likely to be reported and found positive in each bioregion. Our results may be useful to WNV surveillance and control efforts and provide insight into bird population trends in California.

Modeling photovoltaic diffusion: an analysis of geospatial datasets

This study combines address-level residential photovoltaic (PV) adoption trends in California with several types of geospatial information—population demographics, housing characteristics, foreclosure rates, solar irradiance, vehicle ownership preferences, and others—to identify which subsets of geospatial information are the best predictors of historical PV adoption. Number of rooms, heating source and house age were key variables that had not been previously explored in the literature, but are consistent with the expected profile of a PV adopter. The strong relationship provided by foreclosure indicators and mortgage status have less of an intuitive connection to PV adoption, but may be highly correlated with characteristics inherent in PV adopters. Next, we explore how these predictive factors and model performance varies between different Investor Owned Utility (IOU) regions in California, and at different spatial scales. Results suggest that models trained with small subsets of geospatial information (five to eight variables) may provide similar explanatory power as models using hundreds of geospatial variables. Further, the predictive performance of models generally decreases at higher resolution, i.e., below ZIP code level since several geospatial variables with coarse native resolution become less useful for representing high resolution variations in PV adoption trends. However, for California we find that model performance improves if parameters are trained at the regional IOU level rather than the state-wide level. We also find that models trained within one IOU region are generally representative for other IOU regions in CA, suggesting that a model trained with data from one state may be applicable in another state.

Predictors of Neighborhood Risk for Late-Stage Melanoma: Addressing Disparities through Spatial Analysis and Area-Based Measures

Minority populations have disproportionately more advanced stage melanoma and worse survival. To clarify the impact of race and ethnicity on late-stage melanoma diagnosis, we performed spatial analysis of geocoded melanoma cases diagnosed in Florida, 1999-2008, to identify geographic clusters of higher-than-expected incidence of late-stage melanoma and developed predictive models for melanoma cases in high-risk neighborhoods accounting for area-based poverty, race/ethnicity, patient insurance status, age, and gender. In the adjusted model, Hispanic ethnicity and census tract-level poverty are the strongest predictors for clustering of late-stage melanoma. Hispanic whites were 43% more likely to live in neighborhoods with excessive late-stage melanoma (P<0.001) compared with non-Hispanic whites (NHW). For every 1% increase in population living in poverty, there is a 2% increase in late-stage melanoma clustering (P<0.001). Census tract-level poverty predicted late-stage melanoma similarly among NHW and Hispanic whites. The impact of insurance coverage varied among populations; the most consistent trend was that Medicaid coverage is associated with higher odds for late-stage melanoma. The finding that Hispanics are most likely to reside in high-risk neighborhoods, independent of poverty and insurance status, underscores the importance of addressing, and overcoming community-level barriers to melanoma care.

Washington State's Alcohol Ignition Interlock Law: Effects on Recidivism Among First-Time DUI Offenders

Objective: To examine the effects of changes to Washington State's ignition interlock laws: moving issuance of interlock orders from courts to the driver licensing department in July 2003 and extending the interlock order requirement to first-time offenders with blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) below 0.15 percent (“first simple driving under the influence [DUI]”) in June 2004. Method: Trends in conviction types, interlock installation rates, and 2-year cumulative recidivism rates were examined for first-time convictions (simple, high-BAC, test refusal DUI; deferred prosecution; alcohol-related negligent driving) stemming from DUI arrests between January 1999 and June 2006. Regression analyses examined recidivism effects of the law changes and interlock installation rates. To examine general deterrent effects, trends in single-vehicle late-night crashes in Washington were compared with trends in California and Oregon. Results: After the 2004 law change, the proportion of simple DUIs declined somewhat, though the proportion of negligent driving convictions (no interlock order requirement) continued an upward trend. Interlock installation rates for first simple DUIs were 3 to 6 percent in the year before the law change and one third after. Recidivism declined by an estimated 12 percent (e.g., expected 10.6% without law change vs. 9.3% among offenders arrested between April and June 2006, the last study quarter) among first simple DUI offenders and an estimated 11 percent (expected 10.2% vs. 9.1%) among all first-time offenders. There was an estimated 0.06 percentage point decrease in the recidivism rate for each percentage point increase in the proportion of first simple DUI offenders with interlocks. If installation rates had been 100 vs. 34 percent for first simple DUI offenders arrested between April and June 2006, and if the linear relationship between rates of recidivism and installations continued, recidivism could have been reduced from 9.3 to 5.3 percent. With installation rates of 100 vs. 24 percent for all first offenders, their recidivism rate could have fallen from 9.1 to 3.2 percent. Although installation rates increased somewhat after the 2003 law change, recidivism rates were not significantly affected, perhaps due to the short follow-up period before the 2004 law change. The 2004 law change was associated with an 8.3 percent reduction in single-vehicle late-night crash risk. Conclusions: Mandating interlock orders for all first DUI convictions was associated with reductions in recidivism, even with low interlock use rates, and reductions in crashes. Additional gains are likely achievable with higher rates. Jurisdictions should seek to increase use rates and reconsider permitting reductions in DUI charges to other traffic offenses without interlock order requirements.

Impacts of ‘Three Strikes and You're Out’ on Crime Trends in California and Throughout the United States

The impacts of Three Strikes on crime in California and throughout the U.S. are analyzed using cross-sectional time series analysis of state-level data from 1986 to 2005. The model measures both deterrence and incapacitation effects, controlling for pre-existing crime trends and economic, demographic, and policy factors. Despite limited usage outside California, the presence of a Three Strikes law appears to be associated with slightly but significantly faster rates of decline in robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft nationwide. Three Strikes is also associated with slower declines in murder rates. Although California’s law is the broadest and most-frequently-used Three Strikes policy, it has not produced greater incapacitation effects on crime than other states’ far more limited laws. The analyses indicate that the “toughest” sentencing policy is not necessarily the most effective option.

Past and future ozone trends in California's South Coast Air Basin: Reconciliation of ambient measurements with past and projected emission inventories

This paper updates the historic trends (1980–2010) in ambient ozone and ozone precursor concentrations in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) and examines the evolution of the ozone-precursor relationship in the Basin. Whereas reductions in NOx (oxide of nitrogen) emissions have decreased nitrate and PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) concentrations in the Basin during the past decade, ozone levels have increased at the central basin locations since about 2005 following a reversal in the decline of volatile organic compound (VOC)/NOx ratios during the previous two decades. A chemical box model was used to simulate the effects of changes in precursor concentrations on ozone formation using day-of-week–specific initial precursor concentrations that were derived from measurements and projected to 2020 based on expected emission reductions from 2005 (−10% VOC and −50% NOx). Results show that peak ozone formation rates in 2020 will increase on weekdays by a factor of 3 relative to 2005 and will be comparable to 1995 weekday and 2005 Sunday rates. Ozone production will become precursor limited on Sundays in 2020, but with higher initial rates than 2005. Although a greater NOx reduction scenario in 2020 of −75% will result in even higher initial ozone formation rates, precursor limitation is reached quickly, leading to a further shift westward in the location of peak ozone levels. However, ozone levels will likely be lower in downwind areas where transport is more important than local production of ozone. The ambient versus emission inventory reconciliation indicates a factor of 2 underestimation of VOC emissions in 2009 relative to NOx. Other analyses suggest that there is an overall increase in VOC emissions on hot days that is not fully accounted for by emission inventory estimates. Air quality models using emission inventories that underestimate VOC emissions relative to NOx may lead to inaccurate forecasting of the consequence of emission reductions. Implications: The rate and efficiency of ozone formation and accumulation in the SoCAB is more rapid than would be indicated by air quality model simulations based on the current inventory. Projected reductions in NOx emissions without concurrent reductions in VOC emissions will likely cause ozone to increase during the next decade within central regions of the SoCAB compared with a flat or slightly declining trend in far downwind locations. Air quality statistics that are commonly used to track progress toward attainment, such as basin-wide ozone design value and standard exceedances mask these varying trends within the Basin.

Home Price Indexes for Homes in Different Price Tiers: Biases and Corrections

Under the repeat-transactions framework for constructing house price indexes, the paper analyzes the technical challenges associated with producing unbiased price indexes for homes in distinct price tiers. The basic problem is that the “tier” to which a given home truly belongs is unobservable and can vary over time. Various approaches to forming tiered indexes, including the methodology used in the formation of S&P/Case-Shiller tiered indexes, are analyzed. Some are shown to be susceptible to mean-reversion-related biases (under- or over-statement of price changes) when home prices reflect “true” home values plus transactions-related noise. Empirical comparisons of price trends in California as a whole and two California metropolitan areas — San Francisco and San Diego — are shown where indexes are constructed under various tier-classification schemes.

Projecting long-run socioeconomic and demographic trends in California under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios

The State of California is developing and implementing a new generation of environmental policies to transition to a low-carbon economy and energy system in order to reduce the risks of future damages from global climate change. At the same time, it is increasingly clear that climate change impacts are already occurring and that further effects cannot be completely avoided. Thus, anticipating and planning for emerging and potential future climate change impacts in California must complement the state’s greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. These impacts will depend substantially on the future evolution of the state’s social structure and economy. To support impact studies, this report describes socioeconomic storylines and key scenario elements for California that are broadly consistent with the global “A2” and “B1” storylines in the 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including qualitative socioeconomic context as well as quantitative projections of key variables such as population, urbanization patterns, economic growth, and electricity prices.

Trends in Hospitalization for Pediatric Pyelonephritis: A Population Based Study of California From 1985 to 2006

We examined trends in pediatric hospitalization for pyelonephritis from 1985 to 2006 and identified factors associated with admission. We performed a population based analysis of hospital discharges using the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development database to evaluate trends in California regarding pediatric hospitalizations for pyelonephritis from 1985 to 2006. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with admission for pyelonephritis. A total of 46,300 children were hospitalized for pyelonephritis in California from 1985 to 2006. The overall rate of hospitalization for pyelonephritis increased by greater than 80%, from 17 per 100,000 children in the California population in 1985 to 31 per 100,000 in 2005. This change was primarily due to the nearly ninefold increase in pyelonephritis hospitalizations observed in children younger than 1 year, from 28 per 100,000 in 1985 to 238 per 100,000 in 2005. Among children younger than 1 year males without private insurance and of nonwhite race had increased odds of hospitalization, while females with private insurance and of Asian race had increased odds of hospitalization, compared with nonprivate insurance and white race, respectively. A significant increase in hospital admissions for pyelonephritis, primarily in children younger than 1 year, occurred in California between 1985 and 2006. Further studies are needed to establish the cause of this striking increase and to determine why certain pediatric populations are at increased risk for hospitalization.

Baseline levels and trends of ground level ozone in Canada and the United States

Abstract. A statistical method was developed to extract baseline levels of ground level ozone in Canada and the US, and to quantify the temporal changes of baseline ozone levels on annual, seasonal, diurnal and decadal scales for the period 1997 to 2006 based on ground-level observations from 97 non-urban monitoring sites. Baseline ozone is defined here as ozone measured at a given site in the absence of strong local influences. The quantification of baseline levels involved using a Principal Component Analyses (PCA) to derive groups of commonly-varying sites in contiguous regions by season, followed by using backward air parcel trajectories to systematically select ozone mixing ratios associated with the baseline condition in each of the PCA-derived regions. Decadal trends were estimated by season for each of the regions using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Baseline ozone mixing ratios determined by this method were found to vary geographically and seasonally. For the 1997–2006 period, baseline mixing ratios were calculated for annual and seasonal periods in seven regions of North America based on multi-site multi-year averages of the baseline data sets. The annual average (±1 standard deviation) baseline mixing ratios for the regions are as follows: Continental Eastern Canada=30±9 ppb, Continental Eastern US=30±10 ppb, Coastal Eastern Canada=27±9 ppb, Coastal Western Canada=19±10 ppb; Coastal Western US=39±10 ppb, Continental Western Canada=28±10 ppb and Continental Western US=46±7 ppb. Trends in the baseline mixing ratios were also found to vary by season and by geographical region. On a decadal scale, increasing baseline ozone trends (temperature-adjusted) were observed in all seasons along the Pacific coasts of Canada and the US, although the trends in California were not statistically significant. In the coastal zone of Pacific Canada, positive trends were found with a rate of increase of 0.28±0.26, 0.72±0.55, and 0.93±0.41 ppb/a in spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), respectively. In the Atlantic coastal region, the trends were also positive in 3 of the 4 seasons (but only significantly so in MAM). In the high ozone precursor emission areas of the Eastern United States, decadal trends in baseline ozone are, in general, negative in the spring, summer and fall and appear to be controlled by the strong within-region changes induced by decreasing ozone precursor emissions.

Review of Racial and Ethnic Politics in California

Wong: Review of Racial and Ethnic Politics in California THE CALIFORNIA Journal of Politics & Policy Book Review Racial and Ethnic Politics in California: Continuity and Change, Sandra Bass and Bruce E. Cain, eds., 2008 Review of Racial and Ethnic Politics in California Janelle Wong University of Southern California I read the first volume of Racial and Ethnic Politics in California as an undergraduate at UCLA 15 years ago. That volume still sits on my shelf. It is a reminder of the kind of research on ethnic and racial politics that compelled me to pursue a path in the field. Volume 1, Issue 1, 2009 The third volume of Racial and Ethnic Politics in Cali- fornia, edited by Sandra Bass and Bruce Cain, was just released from Berkeley Public Policy Press. The subtitle of the book, Continuity and Change, aptly describes both California politics and the latest volume in the Racial and Ethnic Politics in California series. Like the first volume, the third offers a clear story about the ways in which ra- cial and ethnic diversity drive contemporary politics in the Golden State. Two essays stand out in this regard. First, geographer Ali Modarres presents a succinct overview of demographic trends in California. He suggests that immi- gration, especially from Asia, is a driving force behind in- creased racial integration in the state. Nonetheless, racial segregation remains a stubborn fact of life for almost half of all residents in California. Modarres is right to point out that if California stakeholders passively allow segregation to prevail, rather than actively working toward a residen- tially integrated California, entrenched political conflict and inequality will be the state’s destiny. www.bepress.com/cjpp

The Evolution of Regional Industry Clusters and Their Implications for Sustainable Economic Development

The ability to detect embryonic yet dynamic industry cluster changes can help regional decision makers proactively create strategic initiatives that support value-based development. This article examines cluster trends in California's central San Joaquin Valley and northeast Indiana through the introduction of quantitative methods that detect microchanges in cluster development. These methods capture whether a region's clusters are evolving and, if so, how they are changing. Built on the foundation of traditional quantitative cluster analysis techniques, these additional screening methods can capture entrepreneurial and innovative activity within the industry cluster context at an earlier stage than traditional methods can. This approach can provide industry sector clues as to what may drive future cluster development, both positive and negative, and it can offer early-stage opportunities to assess job quality and productivity to help determine the sustainability of new cluster developments.

Response of California temperature to regional anthropogenic aerosol changes

In this paper, we compare constructed records of concentrations of black carbon (BC) ‐ an indicator of anthropogenic aerosols ‐ with observed surface temperature trends in California. Annual average BC concentrations in major air basins in California significantly decreased after about 1990, coincident with an observed statewide surface temperature increase. Seasonal aerosol concentration trends are consistent with observed seasonal temperature trends. These data suggest that the reduction in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations contributed to the observed surface temperature increase. Conversely, high aerosol concentrations may lower surface temperature and partially offset the temperature increase of greenhouse gases.

Impacts of “Three Strikes and You're Out” on Crime Trends in California and Throughout the United States

The impacts of Three Strikes on crime in California and throughout the United States are analyzed using cross-sectional time series analysis of state-level data from 1986 to 2005. The model measures both deterrence and incapacitation effects, controlling for preexisting crime trends and economic, demographic, and policy factors. Despite limited use outside California, the presence of a Three Strikes law appears to be associated with slightly but significantly faster rates of decline in robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft nationwide. Three Strikes also is associated with slower declines in murder rates. Although California's law is the broadest and most frequently used Three Strikes policy, it has not produced greater incapacitation effects on crime than other states' far more limited laws. The analyses indicate that the toughest sentencing policy is not necessarily the most effective option.