Trends In Annual Number Research Articles

Investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and clustering of attendances for mental health services to inform policy and resource allocation in Thailand

BackgroundMental illness poses a substantial global public health challenge, including in Thailand, where exploration of access to mental health services is limited. The spatial and temporal dimensions of mental illness in the country are not extensively studied, despite the recognized association between poor mental health and socioeconomic inequalities. Gaining insights into these dimensions is crucial for effective public health interventions and resource allocation.MethodsThis retrospective study analyzed mental health service utilization data in Thailand from 2015 to 2023. Temporal trends in annual numbers of individuals visiting mental health services by diagnosis were examined, while spatial pattern analysis employed Moran’s I statistics to assess autocorrelation, identify small-area clustering, and hotspots. The implications of our findings for mental health resource allocation and policy were discussed.ResultsBetween 2015 and 2023, mental health facilities documented a total of 13,793,884 visits. The study found anxiety, schizophrenia, and depression emerged as the top three illnesses for mental health visits, with an increase in patient attendance following the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. Spatial analysis identified areas of significance for various disorders across different regions of Thailand. Positive correlations between certain disorder pairs were found in specific regions, suggesting shared risk factors or comorbidities.ConclusionsThis study highlights spatial and temporal variations in individuals visiting services for different mental disorders in Thailand, shedding light on service gaps and socioeconomic issues. Addressing these disparities requires increased attention to mental health, the development of appropriate interventions, and overcoming barriers to accessibility. The findings provide a baseline for policymakers and stakeholders to allocate resources and implement culturally responsive interventions to improve mental health outcomes.

Population and Productivity of the Critically Endangered White-Rumped Vulture (Gyps bengalensis) in the Argha Important Bird and Biodiversity Area, Nepal

ABSTRACT The White-rumped Vulture (Gyps bengalensis) is an accipitrid vulture native to Asia. Once known as the world's most abundant large bird of prey, its population declined dramatically across its range during the 1990s. As a result, it is listed on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List as critically endangered. From 2010 to 2021, we monitored two breeding colonies of White-rumped Vultures in the Argha Important Bird and Biodiversity Area, Arghakhanchi District, in the western mid-hill region of Nepal. We visited the colonies at least three times in each breeding season during November, February, and April and calculated nesting success. We estimated annual trends in number of occupied nests (i.e., nesting activity, egg, nestling, or adult in incubation posture), number of fledglings, and productivity (i.e., young fledged per occupied nest). The number of occupied nests, fledglings, and productivity were analyzed separately using identical models. Although the number of occupied nests appeared to increase, the credible interval of the growth rate (r) overlapped zero (r = 0.05, 95% CRI = −0.06–0.16). The number of fledglings (r = 0.04, 95% CRI = −0.04–0.16) and productivity (r < 0.01, 95% CRI = −0.08–0.09) appeared stable. Our findings are encouraging because they suggest stable population and productivity levels in the two breeding colonies of this critically endangered bird. However, our survey covered a small portion of the global population over a single generation of the species. We recommend coordinated, widespread, and long-term monitoring of vultures across South Asia.

Trends in Out-of-Pocket Costs for Naloxone by Drug Brand and Payer in the US, 2010-2018

Improving access to naloxone is a critical component of the nation's strategy to curb fatal overdoses in the opioid crisis. Standing or protocol orders, prescriptive authority laws, and immunity provisions have been passed by states to expand access, but less attention has been given to potential financial barriers to naloxone access. To assess trends in out-of-pocket (OOP) costs for naloxone and examine variation in OOP costs by drug brand and payer. This observational study analyzed US naloxone claims data from Symphony Health and associated OOP costs for individuals filling naloxone prescriptions by drug brand and payer between January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2018. The data were analyzed from March 31, 2021, to April 12, 2022. The main measures were trends in annual number of naloxone claims (overall, by payer, and by drug brand) and mean annual OOP costs per claim (overall, by payer, and by drug brand). Of 719 612 naloxone claims (172 894 generic naloxone, 501 568 Narcan, and 45 150 Evzio) for 2010 through 2018, the number of naloxone claims among insured patients began rapidly increasing after 2014; at the same time, the mean OOP cost of naloxone increased dramatically among the uninsured population. Comparing 2014 with 2018, the mean OOP cost of naloxone decreased by 26% among those with insurance but increased by 506% among uninsured patients. For the uninsured population, the impediment of cost was even larger for certain brands of the drug. In 2016, the mean OOP cost for Evzio among uninsured patients rose to $2136.37 (a 2429% increase relative to 2015) compared with the mean cost of generic naloxone, $72.88, and the cost of Narcan in its first year, $87.95. Throughout the period, the mean OOP costs paid by uninsured patients were higher for Evzio at $1089.17 (95% CI, $884.17-$1294.17) compared with $73.62 (95% CI, $69.24-$78.00) for Narcan and $67.99 (95% CI, $61.42-$74.56) for generic naloxone. In this observational study, the findings indicated that the OOP cost of naloxone had been an increasingly substantial barrier to naloxone access for uninsured patients, potentially limiting use among this population, which constituted approximately 20% of adults with opioid use disorder.

Real-world monitoring progress towards the elimination of hepatitis C virus in Australia using sentinel surveillance of primary care clinics; an ecological study of hepatitis C virus antibody tests from 2009 to 2019.

To achieve the elimination of the hepatitis C virus (HCV), sustained and sufficient levels of HCV testing is critical. The purpose of this study was to assess trends in testing and evaluate the effectiveness of strategies to diagnose people living with HCV. Data were from 12 primary care clinics in Victoria, Australia, that provide targeted services to people who inject drugs (PWID), alongside general health care. This ecological study spanned 2009-2019 and included analyses of trends in annual numbers of HCV antibody tests among individuals with no previous positive HCV antibody test recorded and annual test yield (positive HCV antibody tests/all HCV antibody tests). Generalised linear models estimated the association between count outcomes (HCV antibody tests and positive HCV antibody tests) and time, and χ2 test assessed the trend in test yield. A total of 44 889 HCV antibody tests were conducted 2009-2019; test numbers increased 6% annually on average [95% confidence interval (CI) 4-9]. Test yield declined from 2009 (21%) to 2019 (9%) (χ2P = <0.01). In more recent years (2013-2019) annual test yield remained relatively stable. Modest increases in HCV antibody testing and stable but high test yield within clinics delivering services to PWID highlights testing strategies are resulting in people are being diagnosed however further increases in the testing of people at risk of HCV or living with HCV may be needed to reach Australia's HCV elimination goals.

Hawksbill Nesting in Hawai‘i: 30-Year Dataset Reveals Recent Positive Trend for a Small, Yet Vital Population

Evaluating wildlife population trends is necessary for the development of effective management strategies, which are particularly relevant for highly threatened species. Hawksbill marine turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are considered endangered globally and are rare in Hawai‘i. Remnant hawksbill nesting beaches were identified in Hawai‘i in the late 1980s and the primary sites have been monitored since that time. In this study we summarize all available hawksbill nesting activity around the Hawaiian Islands between 1988 and 2018, highlighting relevant demographic and geographic data for the species. Because monitoring effort varied substantially across space and time, we implemented a predictive modeling approach that accounted for varying effort to explore potential trends in annual number of nesting females and nests over time. Field monitoring efforts documented an annual average of 14 ± 4.3 (range: 5–26) nesting females and 48 ± 19.0 (range: 12–93) nests, with a cumulative total of 178 individual nesting females and 1,280 nests recorded across all years. Nesting has been documented on four Hawaiian Islands, with the overwhelming majority of nesting females (78.4%) and nests (86.5%) recorded at four beaches along the southern coast of Hawai‘i Island. Recent monitoring (2018) at a beach on Moloka‘i Island revealed numbers similar to the most important beaches on Hawai‘i Island. Despite difficulty discerning obvious trends when looking solely at the raw tabulated numbers from field monitoring, our analysis suggests both the number of nesting females and nests have been positively trending since 2006, and this is supported by a higher percentage (57.1% of annual cohorts) of neophyte (vs. remigrant) nesters over the second half of the monitoring timeframe. The masking of obvious trends in the tabulated numbers is likely due to decreased overall monitoring effort as a result of reduced funding in recent years, coupled with a shift in focal monitoring effort from the historical primary nesting site of Kamehame, to the more recently established nesting site of Pōhue. Although the positive trend is encouraging, our findings highlight the precarious state of hawksbills in Hawai‘i and the need to enhance monitoring across all sites to support more robust population assessments and management decision making.

Global Dialysis Perspective: Korea.

According to the Korean ESKD registry (1), in 2018 there were 17,621 incident ESKD patients in Korea. The unadjusted incidence rate was 340.0 per million population (PMP) (Table 1). The number of patients with incident ESKD continued to increase until 2006, plateaued between 2007 and 2009, and rose again from 2010 (Figure 1A). This trend in rising ESKD incidence rate implies increasing burden of CKD, which is attributable to the aging Korean population and high rate of diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension. View this table: Table 1. Trends in annual number of patients with incident ESKD and incidence rates of ESKD in the Korean population, 2000–2018 Figure 1. Trends in the annual number of patients (A) with incident ESKD or (B) with prevalent ESKD by modality in the Korean population, 2000-2018. The number of patients with incident and prevalent HD has steadily increased. The number of patients with incident and prevalent PD continuously declined since 2006. The number of kidney transplants has gradually increased and plateaued since 2016. On December 31, 2018, there were 103,984 patients with prevalent ESKD in Korea, representing a 271% increase since 2000. The unadjusted prevalence rate was 2006.4 PMP (Table 1), which ranked high globally (2). Prevalence rate of ESKD has steadily increased year after year (Figure 1B). Hemodialysis (HD) was the predominant form of ESKD treatment modality in all years in both patients with incident and prevalent ESKD. The number of patients with incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) rapidly increased from the late 1990s and peaked in 2006 ( n =2568), then declined every year until 2018 ( n =735, a decrease of 71%) (Figure1A, Table 1). The ratio of HD to PD gradually changed from 68.9:31.1 in 2006 to 95.3:4.7 in 2018 in patients with incident ESKD, and from 78.4:21.6 in 2006 to 92.5:7.5 in 2018 in patients with prevalent ESKD …

Cryptosporidiosis outbreaks — United States, 2009–2017

Cryptosporidium is a parasite that causes cryptosporidiosis, a profuse, watery diarrhea that can last up to 3 weeks in immunocompetent patients and can lead to life-threatening malnutrition and wasting in immunocompromised patients.* Fecal-oral transmission can occur by ingestion of contaminated recreational water, drinking water, or food, or through contact with infected persons or animals. For the period 2009-2017, public health officials from 40 states and Puerto Rico voluntarily reported 444 cryptosporidiosis outbreaks resulting in 7,465 cases. Exposure to treated recreational water (e.g., in pools and water playgrounds) was associated with 156 (35.1%) outbreaks resulting in 4,232 (56.7%) cases. Other predominant outbreak exposures included contact with cattle (65 outbreaks; 14.6%) and contact with infected persons in child care settings (57; 12.8%). The annual number of reported cryptosporidiosis outbreaks overall increased an average of approximately 13% per year over time. Reversing this trend will require dissemination of prevention messages to discourage swimming or attending child care while ill with diarrhea and encourage hand washing after contact with animals. Prevention and control measures can be optimized by improving understanding of Cryptosporidium transmission through regular analysis of systematically collected epidemiologic and molecular characterization data.

The Evolving Practice Patterns of Academic Endocrine Surgeons: A Cross-sectional Analysis of the Faculty Practice Solutions Center Database 2014 to 2017.

To examine the evolution of an academic endocrine surgeon's practice over time. Amid growing recognition that surgical volume and specialization are linked to better outcomes, endocrine surgery is one of the youngest fields to develop its own formal fellowship training program. However, 3 decades after the emergence of endocrine surgery as a distinct specialty, the medical community and public still have a limited understanding of endocrine surgeons and what they do. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of endocrine surgeons identified in the Faculty Practice Solutions Center Database from 2014 to 2017. Trends in annual number of endocrine surgeries performed, number of all surgeries performed, total work relative value units generated, and patient payer mix stratified by years of practice were evaluated. One hundred thirty-nine endocrine surgeons practicing in 103 institutions over 4 years were analyzed. The proportion of endocrine-specific operations increases over time. A typical academic endocrine surgeon meets the high-volume threshold for thyroidectomies early in their career, but does not reach the thresholds for parathyroidectomies or adrenalectomies until after 4 years. Increased productivity as reflected by adjusted work relative value units does increase over the first 15 years of practice, but also decreases as the proportion of endocrine-specific practice increases. The greatest proportion of endocrine surgeons' patients are insured by commercial plans (46%-50%), and payer mix is stable across all levels of practice. Although endocrine surgeons perform a high-volume of endocrine-specific operations, practice patterns are heterogeneous and suggest that most surgeons have to grow their endocrine-specific practice over time.

Trends and Disparities in Cervical Spine Fusion Procedures Utilization in the New York State.

A retrospective review of the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database of the New York State. This study examined the rate of increase of cervical spine fusion procedures at low-, medium-, and high-volume hospitals, and analyzed racial and socioeconomic characteristics of the patient population treated at these three volume categories. There has been a steady increase in spinal fusion procedures performed each year in the United States, especially cervical and lumbar fusion. Our study aims to analyze the rate of increase at low-, medium-, and high-volume hospitals, and socioeconomic characteristics of the patient populations at these three volume categories. The New York State, Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) database was searched from 2005 to 2014 for the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) Procedure Codes 81.01 (Fusion, atlas-axis), 81.02 (Fusion, anterior column, other cervical, anterior technique), and 81.03 (Fusion, posterior column, other cervical, posterior technique). Patients' primary diagnosis (ICD-9-CM), age, race/ethnicity, primary payment method, severity of illness, length of stay, hospital of operation were included. All 122 hospitals were categorized into high-, medium-, and low-volume. Trends in annual number of cervical spine fusion surgeries in each of the three hospital volume groups were reported using descriptive statistics. Low-volumes centers were more likely to be rural and non-teaching hospitals. African American patients comprised a greater portion of patients at low-volume hospitals, 15.1% versus 11.6% compared with high-volume hospitals. Medicaid and self-pay patients were also overrepresented at low-volume centers, 6.7% and 3.9% versus 2.6% and 1.7%, respectively. Compared with Caucasian patients, African American patients had higher rates of postoperative infection (P = 0.0020) and postoperative bleeding (P = 0.0044). Compared with privately insured patients, Medicaid patients had a higher rate of postoperative bleeding (P = 0.0266) and in-hospital mortality (P = 0.0031). Our results showed significant differences in hospital characteristics, racial distribution, and primary payments methods between the low- and high-volume categories. African American and Medicaid patients had higher rates of postoperative bleeding, despite similar rates between the three volume categories. This suggests racial and socioeconomic disparities remains problematic for disadvantaged populations, some of which may be attributed to accessibility to care at high-volume centers. 3.

340 Trends and Disparities in Cervical Spine Fusion Procedure Utilization in the New York State

Abstract INTRODUCTION There has been a steady increase in spinal fusion procedures performed each year in the US, especially cervical and lumbar fusion. Our study aims to analyze the rate of increase at low-, medium-, and high-volume hospitals, and socioeconomic characteristics of the patient populations at these three volume categories. METHODS We searched the New York State, Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) database from 2005 to 2014 for the ICD-9-CM Procedure Codes 81.01 (Fusion, atlas-axis), 81.02 (Fusion, anterior column, other cervical, anterior technique), and 81.03 (Fusion, posterior column, other cervical, posterior technique). Patients' primary diagnosis (ICD-9-CM), age, race/ethnicity, primary payment method, severity of illness, length of stay, hospital of operation were included. We categorized all 122 hospitals high-, medium-, and low-volume. We then described the trends in annual number of cervical spine fusion surgeries in each of the three hospital volume groups using descriptive statistics. RESULTS &gt;African American patients were significantly greater portion of patients receiving care at low-volume hospitals, 15.1% versus 11.6% at high-volume hospital. Medicaid and self-pay patients were also overrepresented at low-volume centers, 6.7% and 3.9% versus 2.6% and 1.7% respectively at high-volume centers. In addition, Compared with Caucasian patients, African American patients had higher rates of post-operative infection (P = 0.0020) and post-operative bleeding (P = 0.0044). Compared with privately insured patients, Medicaid patients had a higher rate of post-operative bleeding (P = 0.0266) and in-hospital mortality (P = 0.0031). CONCLUSION Our results showed significant differences in racial distribution and primary payments methods between the low- and high-volume categories, and suggests that accessibility to care at high-volume centers remains problematic for these disadvantaged populations.

Variability and trends in extreme rainfall over India

This study has been attempted to investigate the seasonal and annual trends and variations in the occurrence of extreme rainfall over different Indian region and India as a whole. Trends and variations are examined on the basis of following parameters (i) frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall intensity (ERI) and its contribution in total rainfall (ii) highest rainfall events (iii) frequency of extreme rainfall events and days (iv) frequency of rainfall events and days with daily rainfall above 100 mm and 200 mm in a grid box (1° × 1°) over different Indian regions and India as a whole. Daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) available at 1° × 1° resolution has been used to examine trends and variations associated with extreme rainfall events. Based on the long term 95 and 99 percentile values of daily total /maximum rainfall as a threshold for extreme rainfall intensity/events of category 1 and category 2 respectively, the trends and variations in above mentioned parameters are analyzed for the periods 1951-2007, 1951-1980 and 1981-2007. &#x0D; The magnitude of highest intensity rainfall is increased over country as a whole and over peninsular India; it is found to be increased by 1% during 1981-2007 as compared to period 1951-1980. The frequency of extreme rainfall intensity (ERI) days of category 1 is found to be significant increasing (0.4 days/decade) over north central region and significant decreasing trend is found over north east region (0.5 days/decade) during the pre-monsoon season. The magnitude of 24 hours highest rainfall in a grid box is found to be significant increasing over all regions under consideration except over north east and south peninsular regions. Over the last ten years period of the present study, most of the 24 hours highest rainfall events in a grid box are seen over west peninsular region. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution fitted with annual highest rainfall event over the country as a whole and over different Indian region indicates an increase in magnitude of most probable 24 hours highest rainfall in a grid box during second half of the study period over north central region of the country. Analysis also reveals an increase in frequency and severity of extreme rainfall over north west, north central and west peninsular regions during the period of 1981-2007 as compared to 1950-1980.&#x0D; Annual frequency of days and events with extreme rainfall of both categories is increased most significantly over country during the period of present study (1951-2007). Significant increasing trends in frequency of days with extreme rainfall of both categories is noticed only during the monsoon season while extreme rainfall events showed increasing trends during monsoon and winter season over country as a whole. Number of days and events with daily rainfall in any grid box above 100 mm and 200 mm is observed to be significantly increased over the country. Out of six regions, significant increasing trends in annual number of days with rainfall above 100 mm in a grid box is observed over north central and north east regions and for rainfall above 200 mm significant increase is observed over north west and north central regions.

Spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire occurrence in the context of rural development in northern Wisconsin, USA

Most drivers underlying wildfire are dynamic, but at different spatial and temporal scales. We quantified temporal and spatial trends in wildfire patterns over two spatial extents in northern Wisconsin to identify drivers and their change through time. We used spatial point pattern analysis to quantify the spatial pattern of wildfire occurrences, and linear regression to quantify the influence of drought and temporal trends in annual number and mean size of wildfires. Analyses confirmed drought as an important driver of both occurrences and fire size. When both drought and time were incorporated in linear regression models, the number of wildfires showed a declining trend across the full study area, despite housing density increasing in magnitude and spatial extent. Fires caused by campfires and debris-burning did not show any temporal trends. Comparison of spatial models representing biophysical, anthropogenic and combined factors demonstrated human influences on wildfire occurrences, especially human activity, infrastructure and property values. We also identified a non-linear relationship between housing density and wildfire occurrence. Large wildfire occurrence was predicted by similar variables to all occurrences, except the direction of influence changed. Understanding these spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire occurrence has implications for land-use planning, wildfire suppression strategies and ecological goals.

A multifaceted public health approach to statewide aviation safety

During the 1990s, Alaskan pilots had one of the most hazardous occupations in the US. In 2000, a multifaceted public health initiative was launched, focusing on Alaskan air taxi/commuter (AT) operations, including risk factor identification, improved weather information, and the formation of an industry-led safety organization. Effectiveness was assessed by comparing rates of crashes using Poisson regression, comparing trends in annual numbers of crashes, and assessing changes in the number and type of controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) events. The greatest improvements were seen in Alaska fatal AT crashes with a 57% decrease in rates between time periods. While the number of AT crashes in the rest of the US steadily declined during 1990-2009, Alaska only showed significant declines after 2000. CFIT crashes declined but remained more deadly than other crashes. This coordinated effort was successful in reducing crashes in the Alaskan AT industry.

Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950–2010

AbstractThis study examines the climatology of annual frost days, and analyses the size and behaviour of the long‐term variability and trends in annual numbers of frost day at the 72 stations over Turkey from 1950 to 2010. The main results are summarized as follows: (1) The annual number of frost days has evidently decreased at most of the stations with some observed regional differences, (2) The decreasing trends are largest over the Eastern Anatolia, the Marmara regions and along the Mediterranean coastline. The meteorological stations located in the continental northeast and the easternmost parts of the Anatolian Peninsula, including Ardahan, Iǧdır and Van, show a negative linear trend with a rate of four days per decade, (3) As in other regions of the Earth, changes in number of frost days are very likely associated with changes in minimum air temperatures and increasing growing season lengths in Turkey, (4) The decreasing trends in number of frost days also indicated considerable decadal‐scale variability. This variability is very likely attributable to the large‐scale atmospheric circulation and atmospheric oscillations such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Sea‐Caspian Pattern, (5) Consequently, the long‐winter (DJFM) composites of number of frost days were examined for extreme phases of the AO index during the period 1950–2010 in order to assess the influence of atmospheric oscillations on year‐to‐year variability in number of frost days. According to the Cramer's tk test, winter number of frost days tended to increase significantly during the high (positive) index AO phase, while they tended to decrease significantly during the low (negative) index AO phase. These relationships are statistically significant at the 1% level at the majority of stations. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran

In this study, long-term annual and monthly trends in rainfall amount, number of rainy days and maximum precipitation in 24 h are investigated based on the data collected at 33 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical significance of trend and climate variability is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. The Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test indicate that there are no significant linear trends in monthly rainfall at most of the synoptic stations in Iran. However, the maximum number of stations with negative trends have been observed in April (29 station), and then in May (21 stations) and February (21 stations) and with positive trends in December (26 stations) and July (24 stations). The significant linear trends, with a significant level of 0.05, in annual rainfall have been noticed only at five stations. The monthly number of rainy days does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in rainy days has also been observed in April with the minimum in December. In April, out of 24 stations with negative trends, 12 stations have a significant negative trend. Contrary to that, in October there is no significant linear trend. Most stations have positive trends in annual number of rainy days. Also, the monthly maximum precipitation in 24 h does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in maximum precipitation has also been observed in February with the minimum in December. In spite of that, there are almost no significant precipitation variations in Iran during the last 50-odd years, the tendency of decreasing rainfall amount in April and increasing rainfall amount in December and July could indicate an eventual climate change in this area in the future.

Comparative Analysis of the Distribution of Daily Rainfall Amounts at three Stations in Northern Nigeria

The distributions of daily rainfall amounts at three stations in the savanna vegetative zone of northern Nigeria were studied. The lengths of the rainfall data series ranged from 66 to 81years and covered the period from 1916 to 1999. The data series of each station was divided into two segments with those predating 1961 (i.e. up to year 1960) as at first. The data series for the period from 1961 onwards, which generally showed a declining trend of annual number of rainy days, constituted the second segment. Comparison using cumulative probability ploys and a non-parametric statistical test showed that corresponding distributions in both segments were similar when the data partitioned to two antecedent rainfall-states (i.e. rainy day preceding rainy day and dry day preceding rainy day) and also when partitioned to the early, middle and late parts of the wet season. The result suggested that the data from both segments belonged to the same population and were therefore combined to derive the parameters of a gamma distribution model used stochastically generate daily rainfall data for the stationary part of the series. The Statistical properties of the simulated and observed data were comparable suggesting that the derived model parameters are representative of the series. JARD Vol. 2 2003: pp. 70-86

皮膚・軟部悪性腫ようの統計と治療 皮膚および軟部悪性腫ようの統計的観察と治療

The annual trends in number of deaths from malignant skin and soft tissue tumors (ICD-10, C43, C44 and C49) in Japan, were investigated on the basis of the data from the Ministry of Health and Welfare population trend survey. The number of deaths from skin cancers had decreased remarkably from 1979 on, but had increased again since 1995. The general trends of deaths from both malignant melanoma and malignant soft tissue tumors were upward. The approximate annual increased ratio of deaths from a melanoma was 2.5%, and that from soft tissue tumors 2.6%. For lowering the number of deaths, it is essential to pay attention to treatment of an early and relatively early stages of an actinic keratosis-induced squamous cell carcinoma for age 80 and older, and also of the similar stages of a melanoma and soft tissue tumors for age 40 and older.

Entanglement of pinnipeds in synthetic debris and fishing net and line fragments at San Nicolas and San Miguel Islands, California, 1978–1986

Since 1978 we have documented cases of pinnipeds (northern elephant seals, California sea lions, harbour seals, northern fur seals) at San Nicolas and San Miguel islands that were entangled in various kinds of synthetic debris and fishing gear. In 1983 we began systematic surveys to quantify the incidence of entanglement and to examine the effects of entanglement-related mortality on the population growth of each species. The incidence of entanglement observed among pinnipeds that were hauled out at San Nicolas and San Miguel islands was greater from December 1984 through July 1986 (California sea lions, 0.16%; northern elephant seals, 0.16%; harbour seals, 0.09%) than it was from December 1983 through November 1984 (California sea lions, 0.08%; northern elephant seals, 0.15% harbour seals, 0.05%). However, only about one-half, or fewer, of the entangled California sea lions and northern elephant seals were evidently entangled in synthetic debris. Additional cases of entanglement were probably related to commercial fishing operations rather than to marine debris. Trends in abundance of pinnipeds in Southern California have apparently not been significantly influenced by entanglement of individuals in marine debris. Juveniles may be the most susceptible to entanglement in debris and the effects of any recent declines in survival of younger age classes on trends in annual numbers of births may not be detectable for several years. Further studies are needed to document trends in debris-related entanglement and the effects of this entanglement on juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment.