Trends In Admission Rates Research Articles

Trends in admission rates of primary angle closure diseases for the urban population in China, 2011-2021.

Cataract surgery and laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) are effective approaches for preventing primary angle closure diseases (PACDs), as well as acute primary angle closure (APAC). Due to the development of population screening and increases in cataract surgery rates, this study aimed to examine trends in the admission rates of PACD among the urban population in China. This cross-sectional study examined patients who were admitted to a hospital for PACD, and who underwent cataract surgery or LPI operations. The data were obtained from the Yinzhou Regional Health Information Platform (YRHIP) from 2011 to 2021. The annual rates of PACD and APAC admissions, cataract surgery and LPI were analyzed, with the number of cases used as numerators and the annual resident population in Yinzhou district used as denominators. A total of 2,979 patients with PACD admissions, 1,023 patients with APAC admissions, 53,635 patients who underwent cataract surgery and 16,450 patients who underwent LPI were included. The number of annual admissions for PACD gradually increased from 22 cases (1.6/100000) in 2011 to 387 cases (30.8/100000) in 2016, after which it decreased to 232 cases (16.2/100000) in 2019 and then increased to 505 cases (30.6/100000) in 2021. The number of cataract surgeries gradually increased from 1728 (127.7/100000) in 2011 to 7002 (424.9/100000) in 2021. Similarly, the number of LPI gradually increased from 109 (8.0/100000) in 2011 to 3704 (224.8/100000) in 2021. The admission rates of PACD for the urban population in China have declined in recent years after a long increasing trend in the rates of cataract surgery and LPI. However, it increased rapidly during the COVID-19 epidemic. The national health database should be further utilized to investigate temporal trends in the prevalence of PACD.

Mortality outcomes in 35,433 patients admitted for acute haemorrhagic stroke in Australia: A population-linkage study

BackgroundHaemorrhagic stroke (HS) is an important cardiovascular cause of mortality worldwide. Trends in admission rates and outcomes, and predictors of outcomes, post-HS in Australia remain unclear. MethodsAll New South Wales residents, Australia, hospitalized with HS from 2002 to 2017 were identified from the Admitted-Patient-Data-Collection database. Admission rates were adjusted to population size by sex, age-groups and calendar-year. Mortality was tracked from the death registry to 31-Dec-2018 and adjusted for admission calendar-year, age, gender, referral source, surgical evacuation following HS and comorbidities. ResultsThe cohort comprised 35,433 patients (51.1% males). Overall age-adjusted mean(±SD) admission rates were higher for males (63.6 ± 6.2 vs 49.9 ± 4.4 admissions-per-100,000-persons-per-annum). Annual admission rates declined for both sexes from 2002 to 2017 especially in those ≥60yo. In-hospital and 1-year mortality rates were higher for females than males (25.0% vs 20.0% and 40.6% vs 35.9% respectively, all p < 0.001). Adjusted in-hospital and 1-year mortality declined for men and women, overall decreasing by 45% (odds ratio 0.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.47–0.64), and 31% (hazard ratio 0.69,95%CI = 0.63–0.76) respectively between 2002 and 2017. Independent predictors of increased in-hospital and 1-year mortality included increasing age and Charlson comorbidity index, while male sex, a history of hyperlipidaemia and current smoking, and surgical evacuation following HS were associated with reduced mortality (all p < 0.001). ConclusionHS incidence increases markedly with age. Although age-adjusted HS admission rates and post HS mortality have fallen, HS remains associated with high early and 1-year mortality, with females consistently associated with worse outcomes. Strategies to improve outcomes of these patients remain a clinical priority.

Sharp increase in self-poisonings among adolescent girls during the Covid-19 pandemic: Findings from Norwegian registry data.

Sharp increase in self-poisonings among adolescent girls during the Covid-19 pandemic: Findings from Norwegian registry data.

Real world evidence in involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations: 64,685 cases.

Objective:We explored hospitalization patterns and the clinical and individual characteristics of a large cohort of patients who underwent involuntary psychiatric hospitalization in Brazil (n=64,685).Methods:Data were collected from the District Attorney's Office of the State of São Paulo (Ministério Público do Estado de São Paulo) on all involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations in the city of São Paulo between January 2003 and February 2020. The annual involuntary psychiatric hospitalization rate was calculated and descriptive statistics of the characteristics were produced.Results:Involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations increased from 5.8 to 25.5 per 100,000 population, with an eight-folder increase in the first 10-year period (2003-2013). The majority of admissions were to public institutions (86.6%), involved a psychotic disorder in the primary diagnosis (26.1%), involved more than one diagnosis (83.7%), and lasted less than 7 days (52.4%). The majority of the patients were aged 18 to 39 years and were single, and readmission was relatively common (13%). Although the reason for admission was missing in many reports (44%), the risk of harm to self or others was the most common (68.5%).Conclusion:This is one of the largest cohorts of involuntary psychiatric hospitalization records ever explored. These findings build upon existing international evidence about involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations and show recent trends in admission rates in the largest city in Brazil.

Emergency departments: The gatekeepers of admissions in Pennsylvania's rural hospitals

Study objectiveTo analyze trends in admission rates and the proportion of admissions via the ED at rural hospitals in Pennsylvania and to identify factors that may impact admission rates. MethodsWe use retrospective, longitudinal data on rural acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania for 2000–19 to investigate temporal patterns in admission rates and the proportion of admissions via the ED. Regression analysis is then used to identify factors that may impact admission rates. ResultsIn general admission rates, which averaged 14.5%, experienced a gradual decline (Change: −16.9%; from 15.7% to 13%) between 2000 and 2019. The proportion of hospital admissions via the ED, which averaged 64.9%, increased steadily (21%; from 57% to 69%). Critical access hospitals experienced a sharp decline in admissions via the ED (−49.1%) and admission rates (−55.3%). The fixed-effects regression model revealed several hospital- and ED-level characteristics were significantly associated with admission rate. ConclusionsEmergency departments are the gatekeepers of admissions at rural acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania. Many hospitals in rural Pennsylvania, including CAHs, are admitting most of their patients through the ED, concomitant with a significant decline in admissions and admission rates. This highlights the need to strengthen primary care practices serving rural Pennsylvania as well as the need to improve rural emergency and trauma systems. In the short to medium term, policy makers should explore innovative ways to fund smaller hospitals, especially CAHs, to develop level IV trauma center capabilities.

Incidence of HIV-Related Hospital Admission and Inpatient Mortality in Malawi (2012-2019): A Population Cohort Study

Background: Hospital admission and discharge data from Southern and Eastern Africa are sparse but suggest that, despite impressive progress in population coverage of HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes, many hospital admissions remain attributable to HIV. Methods: An inpatient electronic health information system (‘SPINE’) in Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), Blantyre, Malawi recorded data from all adult medical admissions. We combined these with Malawi census data to investigate trends in admission rates for Blantyre residents between 2012 and 2019. Multiple imputation and negative binomial regression was used to estimate population age- and sex-specific admission rates over time. A log-binomial model was used to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death. Results: Of 32,814 medical admissions during Q4.2012-Q3.2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. ART coverage among hospitalised people living with HIV (PLHIV) increased from 66.0% in Q4.2012 to 92.5% in Q3.2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions per 100,000 Blantyre residents decreased substantially from peak Q3.2014 rates of 110 to 43 per 100,000 residents per quarter-year in Q3.2019. An estimated 10,818 fewer than expected PLHIV (95%CI 10,068-11,568) were admitted after 2012-2019 compared to the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2,264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95%CI 2,002-2,526). In-hospital mortality for PLHIV was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with ART at admission. Discussion: Rates of admission for PLHIV decreased substantially, likely due to large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PLHIV. Funding Statement: SPINE received funding from Wellcome Core Grant to the Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust (reference 206545). RMB and PM are funded by Wellcome (203905/Z/16/Z and 206575/Z/17/Z, respectively). Declaration of Interests: MISSING Ethics Approval Statement: Use of anonymous electronic data (from SPINE project) was approved by QECH hospital research committee. Individual patient consent for anonymised secondary analysis was not sought.

Healthcare disparities among cancer patients in the emergency department: How do race and ethnicity affect bounce-back rates?

e18150 Background: Previous studies have demonstrated that patients with cancer utilize the emergency department (ED) more frequently than the general population. Additionally, cancer patients are more likely to require a repeat ED visit within 7 days of a preceding ED discharge (bounce back). This may be a marker of inadequate care or missed diagnosis. We designed this study to evaluate whether there are differences in bounce-back rates among cancer patients of different races/ethnicities. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study to compare all cancer-related ED visits in California based on race/ethnicity using the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) database. We queried all cancer-related ED visits in 2016 among patients ≥18 years and recorded general demographics. Our outcome measures were bounce-back rate and admission rate on the second ED visit. All data were analyzed using SPSS software and descriptive statistics are reported. Results: In 2016, there were 73,465 patients with 103,523 cancer-related ED discharges that met study inclusion criteria. 18% (18,491 visits) of these visits resulted in a bounce-back (versus 13.3% in the general ED population). African American patients had the highest bounce-back rate at 19.5%, followed by Hispanics (18.9%), Non-Hispanic Whites (17.3%) and Asians (17%). We observed an inverse trend in admission rates on the bounce-back visit, with Asian patients having the highest admission rate (40.5%), followed by Non-Hispanic Whites (37.7%), Hispanics (35.1%), and African Americans (32.5%). This is in the context of an overall admission rate of 36.7%, and a high mortality rate on the bounce-back visit of 8.4%. All groups were similar with respect to age, gender, and disease burden. Conclusions: Overall, we observed that African Americans and Hispanics returned to the ED at rates above average, which may be a marker of inadequate care or misdiagnosis. Furthermore, these groups were discharged at a higher frequency on the second visit, despite the high mortality associated with a bounce-back visit. Further investigation is needed to identify actionable targets to improve the emergency cancer care of all races/ethnicities.

Who will become my co-residents? The role of attractiveness of institutional care in the changing demand for long-term care institutions

BackgroundIn several OECD countries the percentage of people over 80 in LTC institutions has been declining for more than a decade, despite population ageing. The standard model to explain healthcare utilization, the Andersen model, cannot explain this trend. We extend the Andersen model by including proxies for the relative attractiveness of community living compared to institutional care. Using longitudinal data on long-term care use in the Netherlands from 1996 to 2012, we examine to what extent a decline in institutional care is associated with changes in perceived attractiveness of institutional LTC care compared to community living. MethodsWith a Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition regression, we decomposed the difference in admission to LTC institutions between the period 1996–1999 and 2009–2012 into a part that accounts for differences in predictors of the Andersen model and an “unexplained” part, and investigate whether the perceived attractiveness of institutional care reduces the size of the unexplained part. ResultsWe find that factors related to the perceived attractiveness of institutional care compared to community living explains 12.8% of the unexplained negative time trend in admission rates over the total period (1996–2012), and 19.1–19.2% over shorter time frames. DiscussionOur results show that changes in the perceived attractiveness of institutional LTC may explain part of the decline in demand for institutional care. Our findings imply that policies to encourage community living may have a self-reinforcing effect.

In-hospital outcomes for solid organ transplants according to type 2 diabetes status: An observational, 15-year study in Spain.

To describe trends and outcomes during admission for solid organ transplant in people with or without type 2 diabetes in Spain, 2001-2015. We used national hospital discharge data to select all hospital admissions for kidney, lung, heart, and liver transplant. We estimated admission rates stratified by type 2 diabetes status. We built Poisson regression models to compare the adjusted time trends in admission rates. We tested in-hospital mortality (IHM) in logistic regression analyses. We identified 50964 transplants (16.7% in people with type 2 diabetes): kidney, 30919; lung, 2810; heart, 3649; liver, 13586. The overall adjusted incidence rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) of admission in people with type 2 diabetes vs no diabetes were 2.4 (2.32-2.48) for kidney, 1.51 (1.33-1.70) for lung, 2.87 (2.63-3.13) for heart, and 4.16 (3.99-4.33) for liver transplant. In the multivariate analysis, IHM decreased significantly over time for all types of transplant. Type 2 diabetes independently predicted lower IHM during admission only for heart (Odds ratio, OR [95% CI]=0.62 [0.47-0.81]) and liver transplant (OR [95% CI]=0.69 [0.58-0.82]). Admission rates for solid organ transplant were higher in people with type 2 diabetes than in people without diabetes. Type 2 diabetes was associated with lower in-hospital mortality during admission for heart and liver transplant.

Emergency Department Visits for Atrial Fibrillation in the United States: Trends in Admission Rates and Economic Burden From 2007 to 2014.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is an increasingly prevalent public health problem and one of the most common causes of emergency department (ED) visits. We aimed to investigate the trends in ED visits and hospital admissions for AF.Methods and ResultsThis is a repeated cross‐sectional analysis of ED visit‐level data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample for 2007 to 2014. We identified adults who visited EDs in the United States, with a principal diagnosis of AF. A sample of 864 759 ED visits for AF, representing a weighted total of 3 886 520 ED visits, were analyzed. The annual ED visits for AF increased by 30.7% from 411 406 in 2007 (95% confidence interval, 389 819–432 993) to 537 801 (95% confidence interval, 506 747–568 855) in 2014. Patient demographics remained consistent, with an average age of 69 to 70 years and slight female predominance (51%–53%) throughout the study period. Hospital admission rates were stable at ≈70% between 2007 and 2010, after which they gradually declined to 62% in 2014 (P trend=0.017). Despite the decline in hospital admission rates, AF hospitalizations increased from 288 225 in 2007 to 333 570 in 2014 because of the increase in total annual ED visits during the study. The adjusted annual charges for admitted AF patients increased by 37% from $7.39 billion in 2007 to $10.1 billion in 2014.ConclusionsAnnual ED visits and hospital admissions for AF increased significantly between 2007 and 2014, despite a reduction in admission rates. These data emphasize the need for widespread implementation of effective strategies aimed at improving the management of patients with AF to reduce hospital admissions and the economic burden of AF.

Inpatient hospital burden of hepatitis C-diagnosed patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

To describe the burden on inpatient hospital resources over time from patients diagnosed with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and who have reached the decompensated stage of cirrhosis (DC), as existing estimates of hospital stay in these patients are limited. A retrospective longitudinal dataset was formed via record-linkage between the national HCV diagnosis database and inpatient/daycase hospitalisation and death registers in Scotland. The study population consisted of HCV-diagnosed patients with a first DC admission in 1996-2013, with follow-up available until 31 May 2014. We investigated and quantified the mean cumulative length of hospital stay, distributions over discharge diagnosis categories, and trends in admission rates. Among our study population (n=1543), we identified 10179 admissions with any diagnosis post-first DC admission. Between 1996 and 2013 there was a 16-fold rise in annual total admissions (from 112 to 1791) and an 11-fold rise in hospital stay (719-8045). When restricting minimum possible follow-up to 2years, DC patients (n=1312) had an overall admission rate of 7.3 per person-year, and spent on average 43days (26days during first 6months) in hospital; for all liver-related, liver-related other than HCC/DC, and non-liver related only admissions, this was 39, 14, and 5days respectively. HCV-infected DC patients impose a considerable inpatient hospital burden, mostly from DC- and other liver-related admissions, but also from admissions associated with non-liver comorbidities. Estimates will be useful for monitoring the impact of prevention and treatment, and for computing the cost-effectiveness of new therapies.

Effect of Capacity for Care on cat admission trends at the Guelph Humane Society, 2011–2015

ABSTRACTIn recent years, there has been a growing concern regarding populations of cats who are homeless. Shelters are constantly overwhelmed by the influx of cats without caregivers and are seeking solutions to enhance positive outcomes for them. In 2014, the Guelph Humane Society implemented a population management program to expedite the movement of cats through the shelter by decreasing the average nonhuman animal’s length of stay using scheduled intakes to control for overcrowding and by implementing strategies to increase adoption rates. This study investigated the time trends in admission rates of cats to the Guelph Humane Society to assess the effectiveness of a population management program called Capacity for Care using a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model. From January 2011 to December 2015, a total of 3295 live cats were admitted to the Guelph Humane Society. When the analysis was adjusted to account for admissions of kittens, there was a significant reduction in admissions for adult cats (p < .01) following the introduction of the population management program. The results also showed a strong seasonal peak in total admissions during the summer months.

Increasing trend in admission rates and costs for acute diverticulitis during 2005-2015: real-life data from the Abruzzo Region.

Background:Scarce data are available on the epidemiological trend of diverticulitis and its financial burden in Italy. The aim of this work was to explore a potential variation in the rate and costs of hospital admissions for uncomplicated and complicated diverticulitis over the last decade.Methods:We selected all hospitalizations for diverticulitis of residents in the Abruzzo Region, Italy between 2005 and 2015. Age-standardized hospitalization rates (HRs) per 100,000 inhabitants for overall, uncomplicated and complicated diverticulitis were calculated. A linear model on the log of the age-standardized rates was used to calculate annual percentage changes (APC). Costs were derived from the official DRG tariff.Results:From 2005 to 2015, the HR for acute diverticulitis increased from 38.9 to 45.2 per 100,000 inhabitants (APC + 1.9%). The HR for complicated diverticulitis increased from 5.9 to 13.3 (APC + 7.6%), whereas it remained stable for uncomplicated diverticulitis. The mean hospital cost was 1.8-times higher for complicated diverticulitis compared with that for uncomplicated disease and 3.5-times higher for patients with a surgery stay compared with that for patients with a medical stay.Conclusion:During the last decade, in the Abruzzo Region, the HRs for diverticulitis and their costs increased significantly, mainly due to disease complications. Further studies are needed to explore strategies to prevent complications and to realise cost-saving policies.

Effects of a national smoking ban on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases: a time-series analysis in Taiwan

ABSTRACTOn January 11, 2009, a comprehensive smoking ban was implemented in Taiwan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of this ban on hospital admissions for ischemic heart disease (IHD). Trends in the country-level monthly hospital admission rates for IHD were determined and frequency compared to other conditions such as control conditions cholecystitis, bowel obstruction, and appendicitis from January 1997 (1 year before the first phase of smoke-free laws was implemented) to December 2012 (3 years after the second phase of the ban). Poisson regression with a monthly time-series model was used to determine alterations in the trend of admission rates for IHD with comparison to rates of other disorders after the ban. Hospital admissions for IHD decreased by 0.8% (incidence rate ratio [RR]: 0.992; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.991–0.994) and 1.1% (incidence RR: 0.989; 95% CI = 0.988–0.991) following the first (September 19, 1997 to January 10, 2009) and second (January 11, 2009 to December 31, 2012) phases of the ban, respectively, compared with those prior to the pre-ban period, the corresponding values for the control conditions were 0.6% (95% CI = 0.5%–0.7%) and 0.7% (95% CI = 0.6%–0.9%). The admission rates significantly fell for both men and women and for all examined age categories after both first and second phases of the ban. The present findings provide evidence of a significant reduction in hospital admissions for IHD in Taiwan following smoking bans.

Trends in admission rates and in-hospital stay for venous thromboembolism

BackgroundAcute venous thromboembolism leads to significant morbidity and mortality. Advances in pharmacotherapy facilitate outpatient care in low-risk acute venous thromboembolism. The proportion of hospitalized acute venous thromboembolism cases and the average length of stay are not known. We sought to identify predictors of hospitalization, changes in hospitalization rates and length of stay of acute venous thromboembolism over a decade in Alberta, Canada. MethodsUsing linked administrative health databases, we identified adult patients diagnosed primarily with acute venous thromboembolism between April 2002 and March 2012. We measured trends using Poisson regression, adjusted length of stay using analysis of covariance. We identified predictors of hospitalization using multivariate logistic regression. Results8198 out of 31,656 acute venous thromboembolism cases were hospitalized. The overall venous thromboembolism admission rates ranged between 23.7% and 27.8% with no evident temporal trend (P=0.10). The average admission rate was 51.9% for pulmonary embolism and 16.1% for deep vein thrombosis. The mean length of stay for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism remained unchanged with an adjusted mean for venous thromboembolism of 6.9±1.0days. Higher Charlson index, older age, male gender, pulmonary embolism at presentation and multiple comorbidities were associated with hospitalization. Hospitalization was associated with 30-day mortality (odds ratio:2.8, 95% CI: 2.2–3.5) whereas the length of stay was not (odds ratio:1.0, 95% CI: 0.99–1.0). ConclusionHospitalization rates and mean length of stay for acute venous thromboembolism did not change significantly between 2002 and 2012. Advances in pharmacotherapy have not yet reduced hospitalization rates or length of stay for venous thromboembolism.

Predictors of falls and mortality among elderly adults with traumatic brain injury: A nationwide, population-based study.

BackgroundElderly adults are at particular risk of sustaining a traumatic brain injury (TBI), and tend to suffer worse outcomes compared to other age groups. Falls are the leading cause of TBI among the elderly.MethodsWe examined nationwide trends in TBI hospitalizations among elderly adults (ages 65 and older) between April 2006 and March 2011 using a population-based database that is mandatory for all hospitals in Canada. Trends in admission rates were analyzed using linear regression. Predictors of falls and in-hospital mortality were identified using logistic regression.ResultsBetween 2006 and 2011, there were 43,823 TBI hospitalizations resulting in 6,939 deaths among elderly adults in Canada. Over the five-year study period, the overall rate of TBI admissions increased by an average of 6% per year from 173.2 to 214.7 per 100,000, while the rate of fall-related TBI increased by 7% annually from 138.6 to 179.2 per 100,000. There were significant trends towards increasing age and comorbidity level (p<0.001 and p = 0.002). Advanced age, comorbidity, and injury severity were independent predictors of both TBI-related falls and mortality on multivariate analysis.ConclusionPrevention efforts should be targeted towards vulnerable demographics including the “older old” (ages 85 and older) and those with multiple medical comorbidities. Additionally, hospitals and long-term care facilities should be prepared to manage the burgeoning population of older patients with more complex comorbidities.

Trends in admissions for chest pain after the introduction of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T

BackgroundThe aim was to describe temporal trends in admission rates for chest pain and patient outcomes after the clinical introduction of the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) assay. MethodsWe included all patients aged >25years presenting with chest pain to the emergency department (ED) at our hospital during 2011–2014. For each year, rates of admissions, coronary angiographies, and revascularizations were determined. After adjustment for confounders, hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for mortality or major adverse cardiac events (MACE) within 1year of the ED visit per year, using 2011 as referent. ResultsIn total, 15,472 chest pain patients were accountable for 18,237 visits to the ED. The chest pain admission rate in 2011 was 44%; 2012, 39%; 2013, 33%; and 2014, 28%, with an overall decrease in 36%. Coronary angiographies within 1year of the ED visit increased from 6.8% in 2011 to 9.6% in 2013, but the proportion of revascularizations was virtually unchanged. The risk of death within 1year of the visit increased by 51% (HR 1.51, 95% CI, 1.18–1.92) in 2014, compared with 2011. Only non-cardiovascular mortality was significantly increased (HR 1.85, 95% CI, 1.34–2.55), with no increase in MACE. ConclusionAdmissions for chest pain were reduced by 36% the first 4years of hs-cTnT use. We observed no increase in MACE, but all-cause mortality increased significantly for non-cardiovascular causes only which was paralleled by a significant increase in the use of coronary angiographies.

30-year trends in admission rates for encephalitis in children in England and effect of improved diagnostics and measles-mumps-rubella vaccination: a population-based observational study

Encephalitis is a serious neurological disorder, yet data on admission rates for all-cause childhood encephalitis in England are scarce. We aimed to estimate admission rates for childhood encephalitis in England over 33 years (1979-2011), to describe trends in admission rates, and to observe how these rates have varied with the introduction of vaccines and improved diagnostics. We did a retrospective analysis of hospital admission statistics for encephalitis for individuals aged 0-19 years using national data from the Hospital Inpatient Enquiry (HIPE, 1979-85) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES, 1990-2011). We analysed annual age-specific and age-standardised admission rates in single calendar years and admission rate trends for specified aetiologies in relation to introduction of PCR testing and measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination. We compared admission rates between the two International Classification of Diseases (ICD) periods, ICD9 (1979-94) and ICD10 (1995-2011). We found 16 571 encephalitis hospital admissions in the period 1979-2011, with a mean hospital admission rate of 5·97 per 100 000 per year (95% CI 5·52-6·41). Hospital admission rates declined from 1979 to 1994 (ICD9; annual percentage change [APC] -3·30%; 95% CI -2·88 to -3·66; p<0·0001) and increased between 1995 and 2011 (ICD10; APC 3·30%; 2·75-3·85; p<0·0001). Admissions for measles decreased by 97% (from 0·32 to 0·009) and admissions for mumps encephalitis decreased by 98% (from 0·60 to 0·01) after the introduction of the two-dose MMR vaccine. Hospital admission rates for encephalitis of unknown aetiology have increased by 37% since the introduction of PCR testing. Hospital admission rates for all-cause childhood encephalitis in England are increasing. Admissions for measles and mumps encephalitis have decreased substantially. The numbers of encephalitis admissions without a specific diagnosis are increasing despite availability of PCR testing, indicating the need for strategies to improve aetiological diagnosis in children with encephalitis. None.

Ethnical disparities in temporal trends of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) throughout a decade in Israel. Soroka acute myocardial infarction (SAMI-II) project.

Ethnical disparities in presentation and outcomes following AMI were reported. We evaluated the temporal-trends of AMI hospitalizations and mortality of Bedouins (Muslims) and Jews in Israel. Retrospective analysis of 15,352 AMI admissions (10,652 patients; 11.3% Bedouins, 88.7% Jews) throughout 2002-2012. The trends in admission rates (AR) were compared using direct age-sex adjustment. The trends of in-hospital mortality (IHM) and 1-year post-discharge mortality (PDM) were adjusted for the patients' characteristics. Bedouins were younger (61.7±14.3 vs. 68.8±13.7years, p<0.001), a higher rate of males. Different prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors was found. STEMI presentation, 3-vessel disease and PCI intervention were more frequently in Bedouins than Jews. Adjusted AR was lower among Jews (4.80/1000 and 3.24/1000 in 2002 and 2012 respectively) than in Bedouins (9.63/1000 and 5.13/1000). A significant decrease of adjusted AR was found in both ethnicities (p-for-trend<0.001 both), greater in Bedouins (p-for-disparity=0.017). The overall rate of IHM was higher for Jews (8.7% vs. 5.6%; p=0.001). The decline of IHM was found in both groups: an increase of one-year resulted in AdjOR=0.877; (p-for-trend<0.001) and 0.910 (p-for-trend=0.052) in Jews and Bedouins respectively (p-for-interaction=0.793). The rates of PDM were higher for Jews (13.6% vs. 9.9%; p=0.001). The risk for PDM increased in both groups: AdjOR=1.118; (p-for-trend<0.001) and 1.093; (p-for-trend=0.012) for one-year increase, for Jews and Bedouins respectively (p-for-interaction=0.927). Throughout 2002-2012 Bedouin AMI patients differed from Jews. Adjusted incidence of AMI declined, greater in Bedouins. IHM declined and PDM increased in both groups. A culturally sensitive prevention program is warranted.

Comparison of different methods to forecast hospital bed needs

ObjectivesThis study compares three methods to forecast the number of acute somatic hospital beds needed in a Swiss academic hospital over the period 2010–2030. DesignInformation about inpatient stays is provided through a yearly mandatory reporting of Swiss hospitals, containing anonymized data. Forecast of the numbers of beds needed compares a basic scenario relying on population projections with two other methods in use in our country that integrate additional hypotheses on future trends in admission rates and length of stay (LOS). ResultsThe total number of beds in the hospital under study is projected to increase from 960 beds in 2010 to a range of 1188 to 1332 in 2030. This estimated growth equals to 24% to 39% of the hospital size at baseline, and these different figures are largely due to hypotheses about future reduction in LOS. Conversely, as the models’ hypotheses regarding future demand have balanced effects on global admission rates, the three methods lead to similar projections for the number of stays, which is estimated to increase by 33% between 2010 and 2030. ConclusionIn the context of population aging, forecasting the number of hospital beds should not rely on a unique scenario. Using different hypotheses about admission rates and LOS, and comparing projected versus real use are important to avoid shortage of beds.