Trend Productivity Growth Research Articles

Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995

GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been among the highest in the world since the mid?1990s. Previous growth accounting research suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyse for the first time the drivers of Russian growth for thirty-four industries over the period 1995 to 2008. We pay in particular attention to the construction of a proper measure of capital services, to use in place of the stock measures employed in previous research. Based on these new measures, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as by MFP growth. Mining and Retailing account for an increasing share of the inputs, but are weak in terms of MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was rapid in goods-producing industries, but the sector's GDP share declined. The major drivers of MFP growth were in the high-skilled services industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s. JEL: O47; P28; L16 Key words: industrial growth accounting, structural change, Russia

Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession

U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out ?bubble economy? stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in industries that produce information technology (IT) or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower underlying productivity growth implies less economic slack than recently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office. As of 2013, about of the shortfall of actual output from (overly optimistic) pre-recession trends reflects a reduction in the level of potential.

Deciphering the Hindu growth epic

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the factors contributing to India's growth acceleration since 1970, based on the neoclassical growth model.Design/methodology/approachA feature of neoclassical growth models is that capital accumulation is induced by both productivity growth and increases in investment rates. The paper uses a growth decomposition method based on that of Robertson. The method reconstructs India's actual growth path exactly, then decomposes the growth using counterfactual simulations, holding investment rates constant and productivity growth constant. The role of human capital is also discussed.FindingsAn increase in the productivity growth rate from 1970 accounts for 68per cent of India's post 1970s growth and the rise in the investment rate accounts for 30 per cent. Hence an upward trend in productivity growth has been more than twice as important as the doubling of the investment rate. A similar conclusion applies for the post 2000 era, where a rise in investment from 25 per cent to 37 per cent of GDP, only adds about 0.7 percentage points of growth to the 4.5 per cent annual growth rate over this period.Originality/valueThe paper provides quantitative estimates of the role of investment and productivity to India's growth based on the neoclassical growth model. It thus improves upon existing growth accounting studies by allowing for the induced effect of productivity growth on capital accumulation. It also improves upon existing development accounting techniques that rely on steady state restrictions, and which would therefore be inappropriate for evaluating India's recent transitional growth.

Chinese regional energy efficiency change and its determinants analysis: Malmquist index and Tobit model

China becomes the largest energy consumer in 2010 but its energy productivity is well below the world average. To meet China’s fast growing energy using, energy efficiency should be especially emphasized under China’s energy policy. This paper focuses on the regional level of energy efficiency change in China. And we analyze total factor energy efficiency for 30 Chinese provinces over the period 1998–2009 using Malmquist index method and Tobit analysis. The Malmquist estimation results suggest there is a dropping change trend of energy productivity growth. Chinese energy efficiency still faces with huge regional disparity, but the energy technical efficiency reflects convergence in the nationwide and west region. As a result of Tobit regression, we find that industrial structure, energy consumption structure and institutional factor have different influences on energy efficiency.

Fueling Growth When Oil Peaks: Directed Technological Change and the Limits to Efficiency

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

OECD Productivity Growth in the 2000s: A Descriptive Analysis of the Impact of Sectoral Effects and Innovation

This paper brings together the latest data and OECD productivity indicators in different areas with the aim of reviewing the main productivity trends over the past decade, comparing the United States, Europe and to some extent Japan. Concerning economy wide indicators of productivity, the slowdown appears to be due to a significant slowdown in investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) followed by a decrease in multi-factor productivity (MFP). However, a new set of indicators of MFP growth by industry shows that the decline of productivity is particularly marked in sectors such as construction and market services. Looking for possible explanations of the decline, a marked slowdown in innovation emerged as the most likely cause. It concludes that, if no new wave of innovation materialises, comparable in size to the one of the late 1990s (around notably the Internet), the OECD trend productivity growth is not likely to resume at its end-1990s level. Only a recovery in innovation itself could trigger a sustainable recovery in productivity in the major OECD countries.

Trends of productivity growth in the construction industry across Europe, US and Japan

Productivity is a key driver for economic growth and prosperity in any country. The pursuit of productivity growth requires an understanding of the factors affecting productivity. The trend of productivity growth, along with the possible factors underlying such growth across Europe, the US and Japan, is thus examined. In particular, there is a focus on comparing the productivity performance of the construction sector to that of other industries. Using the recently released EU KLEMS1 database,2 a growth accounting framework was adopted to assess the contribution of the following factors to productivity growth (during 1971–2005): capital, labour quality and total factor productivity (TFP). It was found that there is a general slowdown in labour productivity growth in total industries including construction across major OECD countries, with the exception of the UK. The differences in labour productivity growth between construction and total industries can be largely explained by construction’s poor TFP performance. With the exception of the UK, TFP negatively contributed to labour productivity growth in the period 1990–2005, suggesting that the industry has become less efficient in combining the factors of production. That phenomenon seems to be consistent across all selected countries and warrants further investigation. Indeed a better understanding of the factors underlying productivity growth in OECD countries is a prerequisite for effective intervention of policy makers to support sustained productivity growth.

Current Trends in the Analysis of Canadian Productivity Growth

For more than a decade, debates over the impact of new information technologies on trend productivity growth rates have played a key role in the formulation of monetary policy in many countries, including the United States and Canada. However, the question of whether the trend growth rate of aggregate productivity has changed significantly is rarely examined formally. This paper examines the latest aggregate labour productivity data for Canada using a new testing approach specifically designed to detect recent changes in trends. In addition to showing the strength of the evidence for changes in long-run trends, it considers the effect that data revision and changing sample period has had on inference about structural changes. In an appendix, it investigates how large such changes must be before they can be detected and to what degree detection tends to lag the structural change. Evidence of a decline in the trend rate of labour productivity growth in Canada since 1990 is mixed. In particular, conclusions vary considerably from year to year as data are revised and as the accumulation of observations after purported breaks changes initial perceptions. The instability of test results suggest that policymakers need to use extreme caution in interpreting claims of changes in labour productivity trends and highlight the uncertainty that they face.

Endogenous Growth Mechanism as a Source of Medium Term Fluctuations in the Labor Market: Application to the US Economy

Endogenous Growth Mechanism as a Source of Medium Term Fluctuations in the Labor Market: Application to the US Economy

Current trends in the analysis of Canadian productivity growth

For more than a decade, debates over the impact of new information technologies on trend productivity growth rates have played a key role in the formulation of monetary policy in many countries, including the United States and Canada. However, the question of whether the trend growth rate of aggregate productivity has changed significantly is rarely examined formally. This paper examines the latest aggregate labour productivity data for Canada using a new testing approach specifically designed to detect recent changes in trends. In addition to showing the strength of the evidence for changes in long-run trends, it considers the effect that data revision and changing sample period has had on inference about structural changes. In an appendix, it investigates how large such changes must be before they can be detected and to what degree detection tends to lag the structural change. Evidence of a decline in the trend rate of labour productivity growth in Canada since 1990 is mixed. In particular, conclusions vary considerably from year to year as data are revised and as the accumulation of observations after purported breaks changes initial perceptions. The instability of test results suggest that policymakers need to use extreme caution in interpreting claims of changes in labour productivity trends and highlight the uncertainty that they face.

A Sectoral Analysis of Italy's Development, 1861-2011

Italy's economic growth over its 150 years of unified history did not occur at a steady pace nor was it balanced across sectors. Relying on an entirely new input (labour and capital) database by us built and presented in the Appendix, together with new Banca d'Italia estimates of GDP by sector, this paper evaluates the different labour productivity growth trends within the Italian economy's sectors, as well as the contribution of structural change to productivity growth. Italy's performance is then set in an international context: a comparison of sectoral labour productivity growth rates and levels within a selected sample of countries (UK, US, Germany, Japan, India) allows us to better time, quantify and gauge the causes of Italy's catching-up process and subsequent more recent slowdown. Finally, the paper analyses the proximate sources of Italy's growth, relative to the other countries, in a standard growth accounting framework, in an attempt also to disentangle the contribution of both total factor productivity growth and capital deepening to the country's labour productivity dynamics.

Productivity Growth in Europe and the US: a Sectoral Study

This paper describes recent trends in productivity growth in the EU and the US. By adopting a sectoral perspective, we achieve a deeper understanding of the compositional patterns of aggregate growth and shed light on the reasons why the EU productivity has lagged behind the US during the period 1995-2007.  This may be of use for policy makers in order to design policies to close the gap.  Whilst our findings indicate that performance in manufacturing sectors of many EU countries has been strong, we observe notable disadvantages in relation to productivity performance of key market service sectors. Restrictions in product and labour markets prevailing in many EU countries have been put forward as potential factors causing poor productivity; research shows that these can have particular harmful effects in services sectors given their large size and inter-linkages to other sector of the economy.

Trade Reforms and Total Factor Productivity Growth in India’s Aluminium Industry with Adjustment for Capacity Utilization

This paper examines productivity performance of India’s aluminium industry in the pre and post-economic reforms and tries to relate economic capacity utilization with productivity growth. The results on partial productivity of factors show improvement in productivity of material and capital but not of labour. The total factor productivity growth in the post-reform period, however, declined. Total output growth in Indian aluminium industry is found to be mainly input-driven rather than productivity-driven. With adjustment for variations in capacity utilization, trend in total factor productivity growth remains declining. The paper also reconfirms the important links that exist between manufacturing productivity, trade orientation, industry specific characteristics and some macro economic variables. The liberalization process is found to have adverse impact on total factor productivity growth.

PRODUCTIVITY CONVERGENCE ACROSS INDUSTRIES AND COUNTRIES: THE IMPORTANCE OF THEORY-BASED MEASUREMENT

Cross-country studies of economic growth have been hampered by the scarcity of reliable data on productivity at the industry level; see Bernard and Jones [American Economic Review, 91 (4) (2001), 1168–1169] and Rogerson [Journal of Political Economy, 116 (2) (2008), 235–259]. We bring together literature on industry prices, human capital, and capital assets to construct industry-level productivity measures that are well grounded in neoclassical production theory. These theory-based measures differ widely from the crude measures commonly used in the literature. We use these to confirm and strengthen the finding of Bernard and Jones [American Economic Review, 86 (5) (1996), 1216–1238] that for advanced OECD countries, patterns of convergence across sectors have differed since 1970: whereas productivity in market services converged, there is no convergence in manufacturing. More detailed analysis confirms that patterns of convergence are highly industry-specific. There is no dominant convergence trend in sectoral productivity growth across advanced countries.

The Breaks in Per Capita Productivity Trends in a Number of Industrial Countries

The purpose of this article is to study the trends in per capita productivity in several major industrialised countries. The analysis is first based on annual data over a long period spanning the entire 20th century for the United States, France and the United Kingdom. Productivity trends are then studied over a shorter period, using quarterly data, for the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Japan and the Netherlands. There are already a large number of studies of this kind, but they are too often focused on presenting average productivity growth rates for given periods chosen on an ad hoc basis. In this article, we use a robust statistical method to endogenously identify possible breaks in per capita productivity trends. This method, developed by Bai and Perron (1998), brings out the following salient features: – in the United States, per capita productivity growth accelerated following the trend break at the start of the 1920s, then slowed down at the end of the 1960s. This finding is in line with the “Big Wave” concept developed by Gordon (1999, 2002) to describe the trends in US productivity growth throughout the 20 th century. – French and UK productivity started catching up with that in the United States around the end of the Second World War. – Most of the countries under review recorded slower trend productivity growth in the first half of the 1970s. In the United States, this break occurred in 1966. This finding differs from that of other existing analyses, which point to 1974. – Trend productivity growth in Europe and Japan slowed in the 1990s, whereas US productivity gained momentum over the same period.

Assessing Italy's Reform Challenges: What Do Growth Accounting and Structural Indicators Say?

Italy’s overall GDP growth has been dismal in recent years and this poor performance has been compounded by a declining trend in labour productivity and total factor productivity growth. This paper looks into growth accounting and structural indicators and analyses Italy’s performance against other European countries. We look at the evidence provided by newly available information from the Lisbon Assessment Framework (LAF) developed by the Working Group on Lisbon Methodology (LIME) attached to the Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission services (DG ECFIN). Building upon the results of existing literature, we investigate whether this new evidence is supported by data from other sources and provides fresh insight into Italy’s reform process. The main message from the analysis of growth accounting and structural indicators appears to be that Italy’s GDP growth significantly underperformed that of the EU15 in 2001-2007 notwithstanding progress on reforms.

Entrepreneurship and productivity: The slow growth of the planned economies

Trends in gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the former socialist economies seem to indicate that these economies were converging to unusually low long-run growth rates in the late 1980s. In this paper we develop an endogenous growth model of entrepreneurship that is able to account for the difference in long-run performance between centrally planned economies and market-oriented ones. Long-run growth rates of output and productivity are determined by the growth of the stock of managerial knowledge, which in turn depends on the share of the population involved in entrepreneurial activities and on the time that spent on those activities. We analyze the effect of two characteristics of centrally planned economies on their growth performance. First, in centrally planned economies factors of production are distributed by the central planner to the firms' managers through a contest that uses up some of the managers' productive effort. Second, the leadership is “egalitarian,” in the sense that it treats individuals with different abilities equally. We show that these two features reduce the fraction of people becoming entrepreneurs/managers, as well as their managerial effort, which in turn reduces long-run output and TFP growth. Furthermore, we find that centrally planned economies have lower income inequality and slightly higher capital–output ratios, which is consistent with these countries' experiences.

The labour market in a Keynesian economic regime: theoretical debate and empirical findings

In a Keynesian mode of thinking wages become the nominal anchor for the price level because unit-labour costs in a closed economy represent the most important factor in determining the price level. The second most important driver of price level changes is the exchange rate. A positive economic regime includes nominal wage increases according to trend productivity growth as well as the target inflation rate of the central bank, discretionary monetary policy geared towards growth and anti-cyclical fiscal policy. Since the early 1990s nominal wages in the USA and the UK have followed this wage norm to a large extent. But in Germany, wages have increased below this norm or even decreased, and in Japan this effect has been even more extreme. Overall, while Japan and Germany have suffered from dysfunctional economic regimes leading to low growth, the UK and USA have managed a much more positive interaction between wage development, monetary policy and fiscal policy. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.

Global Trends of Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Malmquist Index

This paper examines the trend of productivity growth in OECD countries by applying the Malmquist index. Our findings indicate that total factor productivity (TFP) growth in OECD countries was much more sluggish in the 1990s than in the 1980s. The nature of productivity growth also differed between the two decades. During the 1980s, a wave of innovation in production technology is found to have improved productivity in most countries considerably, but at the same time widened the efficiency gap between a small group of technically efficient economies and other nations. However, we find that most countries managed to narrow their gap with technically efficient economies over the following decade although they experienced technological regress during that time. The trend of slow productivity growth continued well into the post¡ⓒ2000 period with the average TFP growth for our sample countries actually being negative over 2001¡ⓒ2006. We note that this deterioration in productivity was largely driven by technological regress while the trend of efficiency convergence prevalent in the 1990s all but disappeared during the period.

Catching-up and inflation differentials in a heterogeneous monetary union: Some implications for the euro area and new EU Member States

We propose an alternative explanation for the nature, sources and consequences of inflation rate differentials in a monetary union, such as the euro area. We build on the new neoclassical synthesis (NNS) framework, recently advanced by Goodfriend [Goodfriend, M. 2002. Monetary Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis: A Primer. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond, VA] and Goodfriend and King [Goodfriend, M., King, R., 2001. Case for price stability. NBER Working Paper 8423, Cambridge, MA]. Based on the NNS setup, we discuss the inflationary consequences of the catching-up process in a heterogeneous monetary union. In particular, we explore the interaction between catching-up and inflation differentials and offer an interpretation of the nature of this interaction. We demonstrate that divergent inflation rates between Member States do not necessarily have to be an equilibrium phenomenon, even if the original shock comes from the supply-side of the economy. Second, we show how such divergence of individual country's inflation rates may arise when countries differ in size and in trend productivity growth.