Trends In Incidence Research Articles

The incidence, mortality and disease burden of cardiovascular diseases in China: a comparative study with the United States and Japan based on the GBD 2019 time trend analysis.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are not only the primary cause of mortality in China but also represent a significant financial burden. The World Health Organization highlight that as China undergoes rapid socioeconomic development, its disease spectrum is gradually shifting towards that of developed countries, with increasing prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases such as ischemic heart disease and stroke. We reviewed the rates and trends of CVDs incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) burden in China and compared them with those in the United States (US) and Japan for formulating CVDs control policies. Data on CVDs incidence, death and DALYs in China, the US and Japan were obtained from the GBD 2019 database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in CVDs incidence and mortality in China, the US and Japan, calculate the annual percentage change and determine the best-fitting inflection points. In 2019, there were approximately 12,341,074 new diagnosed cases of CVDs in China, with 4,584,273 CVDs related deaths, causing 91,933,122 DALYs. The CVDs age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China (538.10/100,000) was lower than that in the US and globally, while age-standardized death rate (ASDR) (276.9/100,000) and age-standardized DALY rate (6,463.47/100,000) were higher than those in the two regions. Compared with the US and Japan, from 1990 to 2019, the CVDs incidence rate in China showed an increasing trend, with a lower annual decrease in ASDR and a younger age structure of disease burden. Furthermore, the disease spectrum in China changed minimally, with stroke, ischemic heart disease, and hypertensive heart disease being the top three leading CVDs diseases in terms of incidence and disease burden, also being the major causes of CVDs in the US and Japan. The prevention and control of CVDs is a global issue. The aging population and increasing unhealthy lifestyles will continue to increase the burden in China. Therefore, relevant departments in China should reference the established practices for CVDs control in developed countries while considering the diversity of CVDs in different regions when adjusting national CVDs control programs.

Viral Infection and Ischemic Stroke: Emerging Trends and Mechanistic Insights.

Population studies have suggested that viral infections may be contributing to risk of ischemic stroke, although the mechanisms for this are unclear. In this review, we examine the epidemiological evidence supporting the involvement of viral diseases, including influenza, COVID-19, chronic herpesvirus infections, and hepatitis C in current trends of stroke incidence. To support these associations, we highlight the virus-host interactions that are critical in the context of stroke, including direct effects of acute and persistent viral infections on vascular function, inflammation, and thrombosis. Additionally, we evaluate the systemic changes that occur during viral infection that can predispose individuals to ischemic stroke, including alterations in blood pressure regulation, coagulation, and lipid metabolism. Our review emphasizes the need to further elucidate precise mechanisms involved in viral infections and stroke risk. Future research will inform the development of targeted interventions for stroke prevention in the context of viral diseases.

Epidemiology and natural history of chronic Hepatitis B in the Canadian province of Alberta from 2012 to 2021: A population-based study

Introduction and ObjectivesThere are limited recent data on the burden of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the North American general population. We aimed to identify the CHB burden from a Canadian population-based perspective. Patients and MethodsUsing a retrospective cohort design, we searched Alberta Analytics administrative databases including the Provincial Laboratory database, to describe CHB epidemiology and natural history in Alberta, Canada between fiscal years 2012-2020. We analyzed incidence and prevalence trends using a Poisson regression model and conducted Kaplan-Meier analyses to examine the incident cohort's survival. ResultsThe age/sex-adjusted incidence of CHB between 2015-2020 was 27.1/100,000 person/years (29.6/100,000 in males and 24.5/100,000 in females) and was highest among individuals aged 45-64 years. Despite a decrease in annual incidence of CHB from 36.4 to 13.4/100,000 between 2015-2020, prevalence increased from 98.9 to 210.3/100,000 in the same period. Of 6,860 incident cases, 2.1% died, and 0.2% underwent liver transplantation during a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 2.0-4.9 years). CHB patients had significantly lower survival rates compared to age/sex-matched Canadians, with a standardized mortality ratio of 3.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.3-4.6). Male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.5), older age at diagnosis (HR, 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.09) independently predicted mortality. ConclusionsCHB incidence decreased in Alberta, which is consistent with nationwide trends. Males and individuals aged 45-64 had higher CHB incidence and prevalence. CHB patients’ lower survival rates emphasize the need to address barriers to guideline recommended HBV care linkage.

Patterns of incidence and characteristics of youth with new-onset diabetes mellitus during the COVID era

Objectives: The incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in children, adolescents, and young adults has been on the rise for many decades. The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a dramatic increase in new cases of pediatric DM and a shift in the seasonal pattern of incidence. We aimed to determine the incidence of DM and its subtypes during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) and pre-pandemic (2017–2019). We sought to assess for a difference in seasonality and temporal pattern of new-onset DM between the two periods and aimed to describe and compare the clinical characteristics of the patients diagnosed during this time. Material and Methods: In this retrospective chart review, data were collected from medical records for all patients aged 1–21 years diagnosed with DM at our center between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022. Results: The incidence of DM at our center increased 38% during the pandemic (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval; [CI] 1.20–1.58). The incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) increased 11% (IRR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01–1.23) and the median body mass index percentile increased for those diagnosed during the pandemic (P = 0.012). The incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) increased 238% (IRR 3.38, 95% CI 2.17–5.28) during the pandemic, with the highest rate of diagnosis in a younger age group (P = 0.015). The pattern of incidence of T1D shifted from lowest in the summer pre-pandemic to highest in the summer during the pandemic (IRR 1.82, 95% CI 1.22–2.72). The overall incidence trend for DM, T1D, and T2D, peaked in spring 2021 and then declined until it stabilized in summer 2022. Conclusion: Our study showed a persistent increase in the incidence of both T1D and T2D in the pediatric population during the pandemic. Those diagnosed with T2D during the pandemic were younger than those diagnosed in the pre-pandemic period. There was a shift in seasonal pattern of T1D incidence during the pandemic with the highest rates of incidence during the summer. Further studies are needed to evaluate the underlying mechanisms of the persistent increase in incidence.

Incidence of Clinically Diagnosed Psoriatic Arthritis in Sweden.

Prior incidence estimates of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) vary considerably. We aimed to assess the annual incidence of clinically diagnosed PsA among adults in Sweden in 2014-2016, overall and stratified by age/sex/education/geography, and to investigate potential time trends in incidence in 2006-2018. Use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) during the 2 years after diagnosis was also examined. Patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with incident clinically diagnosed PsA in Sweden were identified from the National Patient Register (NPR) and/or the Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register (SRQ). Population statistics, stratification variables, and DMARD information were retrieved from other nationwide registers. Incidence was estimated according to a base case (BC) definition (ie, ≥ 1 main International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, diagnosis of PsA [L40.5/M07.0-M07.3] from rheumatology/internal medicine in NPR, or a PsA diagnosis in SRQ during the relevant year, and no prior such diagnoses) and 4 different sensitivity analysis case definitions. The mean annual incidence of clinically diagnosed PsA among adults in Sweden in 2014-2016 was estimated at 21.77 per 100,000 person-years (PYs) at risk, according to the BC definition; 17.41 per 100,000 PYs at risk after accounting for diagnostic misclassification; and 15.78 to 28.83 per 100,000 PYs at risk across all sensitivity analyses. Incidence was slightly higher in female individuals, was lower in those with higher education (aged > 12 years), and peaked during the ages of 50 to 59 years. No apparent increasing or decreasing time trend was observed in 2006-2018. Within 2 years of diagnosis, 71.03% of patients had received DMARD therapy (22.37% biologic or targeted synthetic DMARDs). From 2014 to 2016, the annual incidence of clinically diagnosed PsA in the adult Swedish population was approximately 20 per 100,000 PYs at risk. Two years after diagnosis, almost three-quarters of patients had received DMARD therapy.

Spatial-temporal evolution patterns of influenza incidence in Xinjiang Prefecture from 2014 to 2023 based on GIS

Using GIS technology, this study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of influenza incidence in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2023 based on influenza surveillance data. The study revealed a noticeable fluctuation trend in influenza incidence rates in Xinjiang, particularly notable spikes observed in 2019 and 2023. The results of the 3-year moving average showed a significant long-term upward trend in influenza incidence rates, confirmed by Theil-Sen method (MAD = 2.202, p < 0.01). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated significant positive spatial autocorrelation in influenza incidence rates from 2016 and from 2018 to 2023 (Moran’s I > 0, P < 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis further revealed clustering patterns in different regions, with high-high clustering and low-high clustering predominating in northern Xinjiang, and low-low clustering predominating in southern Xinjiang. Hotspot analysis indicated a progressive rise in the number of influenza incidence hotspots, primarily concentrated in northern Xinjiang, particularly in Urumqi, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, and Hotan Prefecture. Standard deviation ellipse analysis and the trajectory of influenza incidence gravity center migration showed that the transmission range of influenza in Xinjiang has been expanding, with the epidemic center gradually moving northward. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of influenza incidence in Xinjiang highlights the need for differentiated and precise influenza prevention and control strategies in different regions to address the changing trends in influenza prevalence.

Trends in Cancer Incidence and Mortality in US Adolescents and Young Adults, 2016-2021.

(1) Background: The incidence rate of early onset-cancer (<50) has increased since 1995. Among younger people, cancers in AYAs (aged 15-39 y) are often biologically distinct tumors from those treated in the pediatric and older adult population. The current study describes trends in the United States for the most recent years including the first year of the COVID-19 epidemic. We aimed to describe the recent incidence and mortality trends of cancers in AYAs (aged 15-39 y). (2) Methods: We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 22) from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2021. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were assessed by SEER*Stat 8.4.3 for major cancer types by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status. Time trends of age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were examined by sex and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status. (3) Results: Age-adjusted overall cancer incidence and mortality rates were stable during this study period. The age-adjusted incidence rates declined significantly for ependymoma, melanoma, carcinomas of lung, bronchus, and trachea, unspecified malignant neoplasms, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Significant increases were found for gastrointestinal tract cancers and non-Kaposi sarcomas. The age-adjusted mortality rate decreased for acute myeloid leukemia, melanoma, carcinomas of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts, kidney and, in women, leukemia. For some cancers, rates differed by sex, race, ethnicity, and geography. Monitoring the rates and time trends of AYA cancer emphasizes the distinct health concern for this age group.

Exploring Prostate Cancer Incidence Trends and Age Change in Cancer Registration Areas of Jiangsu Province, China, 2009 to 2019.

(1) Background: Over the past few decades, Jiangsu Province, China, has witnessed a remarkable surge in the incidence of prostate cancer (PCa), accompanied by notable demographic shifts; (2) Methods: PCa data for Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 were obtained from the Jiangsu Cancer Registry. We calculated crude and age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs), average age at onset, and age-specific composition ratios. Standardization was performed based on the Segi's world population. Birth cohorts (1929-2019) were analyzed to assess PCa incidence by birth year. Trend analysis was conducted using the Joinpoint Regression Model, and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed. A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the average age at diagnosis and calendar years; (3) Results: The ASIRs of PCa in Jiangsu Province increased significantly, with an AAPC of 11.25% (95%CI: 10.09%, 12.42%) from 2009 to 2019. This increase was observed across all age groups, particularly among those aged 0-59 years. Birth cohort analysis revealed a rising trend with earlier birth years showing higher incidence, notably in the 1959 cohort. In rural areas, the age-standardized average age at onset of PCa decreased from 75.45 years in 2009 to 73.39 years in 2019, and the peak age group shifted from 75-79 years in 2009 to 70-74 years in 2019; (4) Conclusions: The rising incidence of PCa in Jiangsu Province, along with an increased proportion of cases in younger age groups, highlights the need for targeted interventions.

Incidence, survival, and prognostic nomogram of patients with small intestinal neuroendocrine tumors: A SEER population-based study.

Small intestinal neuroendocrine tumors (SI-NETs) are a group of rare and significantly heterogeneous tumors with limited research currently available. This study aimed to investigate the incidence, survival, and prognostic factors of SI-NETs. We selected data from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database between 2000 and 2019 and evaluated the incidence trend of SI-NETs during this period. We utilized the Kaplan-Meier method to examine the association between clinical variables and survival rates. Based on the multivariable Cox regression analysis results, we developed a nomogram to predict the 1-, 2-, and 3-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) of SI-NETs patients. We evaluated the consistency, accuracy, and clinical utility of the nomogram by drawing calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. The incidence of SI-NETs showed an upward trend in recent years. Age, grade, T stage, M stage, and primary tumor surgery were independent risk factors for CSS in SI-NETs patients. The nomogram model based on these risk factors showed high accuracy and clinical benefit. SI-NETs are rare tumors with an increasing incidence rate. The nomogram model is expected to be an effective tool for personalized prognosis prediction in SI-NETs patients, which may benefit clinical decision-making.

Strength of Association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Neurological Disorders in Children: A Case-Control Study

Introduction: Evidence suggests potential neurological complications of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly in adults. While case series have hinted at associations between COVID-19 and neurological disorders (NDs) in children, the extent of this link remains unclear. This study investigates temporal trends in NDs during the pandemic and assesses their potential association with COVID-19 infection in children. Methods: We analyzed national Thai hospitalization data (2017–2022) for children under 18 with specific NDs (acute transverse myelitis, central nervous system demyelination, neuromyelitis optica, optic neuritis, polyneuropathy, stroke). An interrupted time series analysis was employed to identify changes in the incidence trends of NDs following the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic. A matched case-control analysis was conducted using data specific to the Thai COVID-19 outbreak period. This analysis aimed to estimate the association between recent/concurrent COVID-19 infection and NDs in children. A propensity score matching on age group, sex, and month of admission was performed before conducting logistic regression. Results: From 2017–2022, 1,721 children were admitted with NDs (2,474 admissions), with a male predominance (55%) and average age of 10.6 years. Significant slope change was observed in optical neuritis trends coinciding with the third COVID-19 wave. The case-control analysis included 468 cases and 2,340 controls. Children with NDs had a significantly higher prevalence of recent/concurrent COVID-19 (matched odds ratio: 1.95, 95% confidence interval: 1.21–3.16). Subgroup analysis revealed an association between stroke and recent/concurrent COVID-19 (matched odds ratio: 3.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.3–7.16). Thus, this study suggests an association between recent/concurrent COVID-19 and NDs, especially pediatric stroke.

Epidemiology of self-limited epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes (SeLECTS): A population study using primary care records

Background and objectiveInformation on self-limited epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes (SeLECTS) epidemiology is limited. We aimed to determine the incidence of SeLECTS in children, its association with socioeconomic deprivation and the prevalence of neurodevelopmental comorbidities. MethodWe performed a retrospective cohort study (2004–2017) using anonymised, linked, routinely collected, primary care and demographic data for children in Wales. We used primary care diagnosis codes to identify children (aged 0–16 years) with SeLECTS and other epilepsies and to record antiseizure medication (ASM) prescriptions and neurodevelopmental comorbidities. We used a mixed effects Poisson regression model to determine temporal trends of SeLECTS incidence and its association with socioeconomic deprivation. ResultsWe identified 6,732 children with epilepsy, 186 (3%) with SeLECTS. In 2017, epilepsy and SeLECTS prevalence was 0.55% and 0.02% respectively with corresponding crude incidence of 51.2/100,000/year and 1.1/100,000/year. The incidence of epilepsy in children decreased with decreasing deprivation with an adjusted incidence rate ratio (AIRR) of 0.72 (95% CI 0.64–0.82) in the least deprived compared with the most deprived quintile. The corresponding AIRR for children with SeLECTS was 1.35 (95% CI 0.46–1.99). 34% of children with epilepsy, 18% of children with SeLECTS and 3% of all children in Wales had a neurodevelopmental disorder and or school problems. Half of children with SeLECTS were treated with ASM. ConclusionsWe identified a lower than previously reported incidence of SeLECTS, which may be due to under-recording of SeLECTS. There was no change in the incidence of SeLECTS over time, whilst the incidence of childhood epilepsy overall was decreasing. There was no significant association between incidence of SeLECTS and deprivation but the modest sample size needs to be considered. Children with SeLECTS should be screened for neurodevelopmental and or learning comorbidities. Treatment for SeLECTS remains debatable.

Trends in incidence of self-harm, neurodevelopmental and mental health conditions among university students compared to the general population: a nationwide electronic data linkage study in Wales.

Objective and ApproachThey are growing concerns that self-harm and mental health conditions are increasing in university students. This may reflect widening access to higher education, existing population trends or stressors associated with this setting. We linked real-world data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency between 2012-2018 with primary and secondary healthcare records. Students were undergraduates aged 18 to 24 years at university entry. Non-students were pseudo-randomly selected based on an equivalent age distribution. We used regression approach to examine characteristics of students and non-students and their risks of self-harm and mental health conditions before and during university. ResultsThis e-cohort study included 96,760 students and 151,795 non-students. Being male, self-harm and mental-health conditions recorded before university entry, and higher deprivation levels resulted in lower odds of entering university and higher odds of dropout. Risks of self-harm, Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD), depression, anxiety, drug misuse, and schizophrenia were lower for students. Risks of self-harm, ASD, ADHD, depression, alcohol misuse and schizophrenia were increasing more in students over time. Older students experienced higher risk of self-harm and mental-health conditions. Younger students were more at risk of alcohol misuse than non-students. ConclusionsMental health conditions in students are common, diverse and they influence their academic outcomes. University students have mental health needs and trajectories that differ from those of the general population. ImplicationsThe diversity and complexity of students’ needs require integrated person-centred stepped care approach within universities including triage, access to well-being support, counselling, and referral pathways to mental health services.

Estimated Health and Economic Outcomes of Racial and Ethnic Tuberculosis Disparities in US-Born Persons

Despite significant progress made toward tuberculosis (TB) elimination, racial and ethnic disparities persist in TB incidence and case-fatality rates in the US. To estimate the health outcomes and economic cost of TB disparities among US-born persons from 2023 to 2035. Generalized additive regression models projecting trends in TB incidence and case-fatality rates from 2023 to 2035 were fit based on national TB surveillance data for 2010 to 2019 in the 50 US states and the District of Columbia among US-born persons. This baseline scenario was compared with alternative scenarios in which racial and ethnic disparities in age- and sex-adjusted incidence and case-fatality rates were eliminated by setting rates for each race and ethnicity to goal values. Additional scenarios were created examining the potential outcomes of delayed reduction of racial and ethnic disparities. The potential benefits of eliminating disparities from differences between baseline and alternative scenario outcomes were quantified. Data were analyzed from January 2010 to December 2019. Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, or non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity. TB cases and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years gained, and associated costs from a societal perspective. The study included 31 811 persons with reported TB from 2010 to 2019 (mean [SD] age, 47 [24] years; 20 504 [64%] male; 1179 [4%] American Indian or Alaska Native persons; 1332 [4%] Asian persons; 12 152 [38%] Black persons; 6595 [21%] Hispanic persons; 299 [1%] Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander persons; and 10 254 [32%] White persons). There were 3722 persons with a reported TB death. Persistent racial and ethnic disparities were associated with an estimated 11 901 of 26 203 TB cases among US-born persons (45%; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 44%-47%), 1421 of 3264 TB deaths among US-born persons (44%; 95% UI, 39%-48%), and an economic cost of $914 (95% UI, $675-$1147) million from 2023 to 2035. Delayed goal attainment reduced the estimated avertable TB outcomes by 505 (95% UI, 495-518) TB cases, 55 (95% UI, 51-59) TB deaths, and $32 (95% UI, $24-$40) million in societal costs annually. In this modeling study of racial and ethnic disparities of TB, these disparities were associated with substantial future health and economic outcomes of TB among US-born persons without interventions beyond current efforts. Actions to eliminate disparities may reduce the excess TB burden among these persons and may contribute to accelerating TB elimination within the US.

Trends of older gastric cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China: 2010–2019 and prediction to 2024

BackgroundGastric cancer is a major health problem worldwide, with a high incidence among older adults. Given the aging overall population, it was crucial to understand the current burden and prospective trend of older gastric cancer. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of older gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China from 2010 to 2019, and to predict the future burden of older gastric cancer up to 2024.MethodsThe study was conducted in Gansu province, an area characterized by the highest gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China. The registration data of gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2019 were pooled from registries in the Gansu Cancer Registration System, while survival data were collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, and Gansu Cancer Hospital. Chinese standard population in 2000 and the Segi’s world standard population were applied to calculate the age-standardized rate. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cancer incidence and mortality. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to generate forecasts for incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2024.ResultsBased on registry data from 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among older adults remained stable. The incidence rates declined from 439.65 per 100,000 in 2010 to 330.40 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.59% (95% confidence interval[CI], -5.14 to 0.04, P = 0.06). Similarly, the mortality rate changed from 366.98 per 100,000 in 2010 to 262.03 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.55% (95% CI, -8.77–4.08%, P = 0.44). In the hospital-based cohort, the decline in survival rates was reported among older patients with gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, with the 3-year overall survival (OS) decreasing from 58.5% (95% CI, 53.5–63.2%) in 2010 to 34.4% (95%CI, 32.1–36.7%) in 2019, and the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) decreasing from 51.3% (95%CI, 47.5–55.1%) in 2010 to 34.2% (95%CI, 32.0–36.3%) in 2019, respectively. Moreover, forecasts generated by ARIMA models revealed a significant decline in the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer in China from 2020 to 2024. Specifically, the incidence rate of older gastric cancer was expected to decrease from 317.94 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 205.59 per 100,000 population in 2024, while the anticipated mortality rate was estimated to decrease from 222.52 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 186.22 per 100,000 population in 2024.ConclusionFrom 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer remained stable in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, while the survival rates showed a decline. Based on the ARIMA models, it was anticipated that there might be a continued decline in older gastric cancer incidence and mortality in the highest-risk area in China over the next five years.

Small bowel cancers: A population-based analysis of epidemiology, treatment and outcomes in Ontario, Canada from 2005-2020

IntroductionSmall bowel cancers are uncommon malignancies comprised of several histologies with variable treatments and prognoses. The current study describes the epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes of a large, population-based cohort of patients with small bowel cancers. MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study using linked administrative healthcare data from Ontario, Canada. Patients diagnosed with a small bowel cancer between 2005–2020 were included. Trends in incidence, treatments, and survival were explored by histology (adenocarcinoma, neuroendocrine tumors (NET), gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), and lymphoma). ResultsA total of 5306 patients with small bowel cancers were identified. The most common histologies were NET (40.5 %) and adenocarcinoma (31.6 %). Over the study period the annual incidence of small bowel cancers increased from 1.54 to 2.78 per 100 000 and the likelihoods of receiving surgery and systemic therapy within one year of diagnosis both increased for all histologic subtypes except lymphoma. Median overall survival from diagnosis was 1.0 year for adenocarcinoma, 13.2 years for NET, 14.2 years for GIST, and 10.1 years for lymphoma. There was no trend towards improved median survival for adenocarcinoma by year of diagnosis; 0.94 years (2005–2010), 1.07 years (2011–2015), and 0.98 years (2016–2020). DiscussionSmall bowel cancers are increasing in incidence, with increasing use of surgery and systemic therapies. While survival is favourable for many small bowel cancers, it remains poor for adenocarcinoma. Better availability of cancer stage data and detailed histopathology within the database would facilitate future research. SynopsisThis study of small bowel cancer in Ontario from 2005 to 2020 demonstrated increasing incidence, use of surgery, and systemic treatments. The most common histologies are neuroendocrine tumors and adenocarcinoma, with median survivals of 13.2 and 1.0 years respectively.

Melanoma Incidence and Mortality Trends in Sweden.

Over the past decades, many global regions have experienced a steady increase in the incidence of cutaneous melanoma. However, more recently, a downward trend has been observed in the younger age groups in Australia and the US. Yet, in Europe, none of the countries have reported any significant decline in melanoma incidence for any age group. To assess melanoma incidence and mortality trends in Sweden, with a focus on individuals younger than the average age of melanoma onset. This cohort study used data on the national population from the Swedish Melanoma Registry and the Swedish Cancer Registry, which cover more than 99% of all primary invasive cutaneous melanomas diagnosed in the country. All patients diagnosed from 1990 to 2022 were included. Incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 inhabitants were calculated for each year and shown as average annual rates for every 5-year period from 1990 to 2022. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate statistical significance of temporal trends and points of change. There were 34 800 primary invasive cutaneous melanomas (19 582 [56.3%] in females and 15 218 [43.7%] in males) reported in 33 324 individuals younger than 60 years (median [IQR] age, 48 [36-58] years) from 1990 to 2022. A consistent rise in melanoma incidence was observed among those 50 to 59 years old. The age groups from 20 to 29 years, 30 to 39 years, and 40 to 49 years showed an incidence peak in 2013 to 2015 followed by stable or significantly declining rates until 2022. In patients younger than 20 years, melanoma incidence remained low with no significant trends. There was also a significant decline in melanoma mortality among 30- to 59-year-old individuals, but not in those 60 years and older. The findings of this cohort study showed a significant recent downward trend in both melanoma incidence and melanoma mortality in the age group 30 to 49 years in Sweden. The reasons for these declines are unclear but may include UV protection, public health campaigns, changing population demographics, and the introduction of effective melanoma treatment. None of these possibilities were evaluated; further study is needed.

Global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease, 1990–2021: Insights from the global burden of disease 2021

PurposeThe prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is on the rise worldwide. We utilizes data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 to analyze the national-level burden of IBD, trends in disease incidence, and epidemiological characteristics.MethodsDetailed information on IBD was gathered from 204 countries and territories spanning 1990 to 2021, sourced from the GBD 2021. Calculations were performed for incidence rates, mortality rates, disease-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). These trends were analyzed based on region, nationality, age, gender, and World Bank income level stratifications.ResultsThe global age-standardised incident rate (ASIR) of IBD increased from 4.22 per 100000 in 1990 to 4.45 per 100000 in 2021. However, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 0.60 per 100000 in 1990 to 0.52 per 100000 in 2021. Similarly, the age-standardised DALYs rate decreased from 21.55 per 100000 in 1990 to 18.07 per 100000 in 2021. Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in disease burden. The greatest increase in IBD-associated ASIR and ASMR occurred in World Bank upper-middle income region (EAPCs, 1.25) and World Bank high-income region (EAPCs, 1.00), respectively. Regionally, East Asia experienced the largest increase in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.89). Among 204 countries, China had the greatest increases in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.93), Netherlands had the highest ASMR in 2021 (2.21 per 100000).ConclusionsGlobal incidence rate of IBD have been increasing from 1990 to 2021, while the DALYs and mortality have been decreasing. The escalating incident rates in select Asian regions deserves further attention.

Cancer Unveiling: A Profile of Incidence and Trends in Bam City, Southeast Iran

Background Cancer is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. According to the report from the Iranian Ministry of Health, cancer ranks as the third most common cause of death in Iran. Consequently, acquiring information about cancer statistics and their trends is crucial for cancer prevention and control. In this study, we examined the trends and epidemiology of cancer in Bam City, Iran, from 2014 to 2019. Material and Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted using cancer registry data spanning from 2014 to 2019 in Bam, located in Kerman Province. Common cancers were determined based on the reported number of cancer cases and age-standardized rates. Data analysis was performed using SPSS (version 22) and GraphPad Prism (version 9). Results In this study, we examined 1,290 cases of cancer registered in Bam City, Kerman Province, from 2014 to 2019. Of our study population, 42.8% (552 cases) were women. The sex ratio (male to female) for all cancers during the 6-year study period was 1.34. The highest number of cancer cases among men occurred in 2016, while among women, it was in 2017. The age-standardized incidence rate did not display a clear increasing or decreasing trend; instead, we observed fluctuations over the 6-year period for both sexes. Notably, the age-standardized incidence rate trend for males consistently remained higher than that for females. Conclusion Fluctuations of the trend in our study can be attributed to reasons such as referral of cases to other cities with better medical facilities and weakness in the cancer registration system of deprived areas such as Bam. Nevertheless, to reduce the burden of cancer, each individual should be aware of the most preventable risk factors, such as an unhealthy lifestyle and occupational exposure. To achieve this goal, the government should prioritize improving the accuracy and completeness of cancer registry centers.

The spatiotemporal associations between esophageal and gastric cancers provide evidence for its joint endoscopic screening in China: a population-based study

BackgroundThe spatiotemporal epidemiological evidence supporting joint endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC) remains limited. This study aims to identify combined high-risk regions for EC and GC and determine optimal areas for joint and separate endoscopic screening.MethodsWe analyzed the association of incidence trends between EC and GC in cancer registry areas across China from 2006 to 2016 using spatiotemporal statistical methods. Based on these analyses, we divided different combined risk regions for EC and GC to implement joint endoscopic screening.ResultsFrom 2006 to 2016, national incidence trends for both EC and GC showed a decline, with an average annual percentage change of -3.15 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.33 to -0.92) for EC and -3.78 (95% CI: -4.98 to -2.56) for GC. A grey comprehensive correlation analysis revealed a strong temporal association between the incidence trends of EC and GC, with correlations of 79.00% (95% CI: 77.85 to 80.14) in males and 77.62% (95% CI: 76.50 to 78.73) in females. Geographic patterns of EC and GC varied, demonstrating both homogeneity and heterogeneity across different regions. The cancer registry areas were classified into seven distinct combined risk regions, with 33 areas identified as high-risk for both EC and GC, highlighting these regions as priorities for joint endoscopic screening.ConclusionThis study demonstrates a significant spatiotemporal association between EC and GC. The identified combined risk regions provide a valuable basis for optimizing joint endoscopic screening strategies for these cancers.

Cancer incidence (2000–2020) among individuals under 35: an emerging sex disparity in oncology

BackgroundAggressive malignancies, such as pancreatic cancer, are increasingly impacting young, female populations. Our investigation centered on whether the observed trends in cancer incidence were unique to pancreatic cancer or indicative of a broader trend across various cancer types. To delve deeper into this phenomenon, we analyzed cancer incidence trends across different age and sex groups. Furthermore, we explored differences in cancer incidence within specific young subgroups aged 18 to 26 and 27 to 34, to better understand the emerging incidence trend among young individuals.MethodsThis study collected cancer incidence data from one of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry databases (SEER22), with 10,183,928 total cases from 2000 to 2020. Data were analyzed through Joinpoint trend analysis approach to evaluate sex- and age-specific trends in cancer incidence. Exposure rates were reported as Average Annual Percentage Changes (AAPCs).ResultsThe analysis revealed significant age and sex-specific disparities, particularly among individuals aged 18–26 and 27–34. Pancreatic cancer incidence rates increased more in females aged 18–26 (AAPC, 9.37% [95% CI, 7.36–11.41%]; p < .0001) than in males (4.43% [95% CI, 2.36–6.53%]; p < .0001). Notably, among gender, age, and other malignancies, young females had the highest AAPCs for pancreatic cancer. Additionally, the incidence of gastric cancer, myeloma, and colorectal malignancies also showed higher AAPCs in young females compared to males.ConclusionsRecognizing emerging risk populations for highly lethal malignancies is crucial for early detection and effective disease management.