Export Trends Research Articles

Rice Cultivation Area, Demographic Trends, and Trade Dynamics for Food Security in Nepal (2011–2021)

ABSTRACTRice is the most important staple crop in Nepal, playing a critical role in both the economy and food security. This study analyzes the trends in rice cultivation, production, imports, and exports from fiscal years 2011/2012 to 2021/2022 and also presents population data from the initial and final years. Over the study period, the area of rice cultivation declined by 0.81% annually, while the production grew by 1.5% per year, and the yield improved at a rate of 1.97% per year. Trend analysis indicated no significant changes in cultivation area or production, but a significant positive trend was observed in the yield. Rice import showed a significant annual increase of 5.61% in price value and 12.80% in quantity, while exports also grew by 1.95% in quantity and 2.39% in value. However, exports remain negligible compared to imports. Nepal's rice self‐sufficiency ratio (SSR) has declined by 1.15% annually, falling from 92.72% in 2011/2012 to 82.01% in 2021/2022 while its import dependency ratio (IDR) has increased by 5.89% annually. These trends suggest that Nepal is becoming increasingly vulnerable in terms of rice food security. Population dynamics based on two census records revealed a notable 14% rise in the foreign population. This situation underscores the urgent need for policy interventions to address the decline in rice self‐sufficiency, labor shortages, and growing import dependency, ensuring sustainable rice production and food security in Nepal.

Forecasting the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in major importing countries usingautoregressive integrated moving average modeling

The study analyzes the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in international markets using the ARIMA model to forecast export trends. The objective is to identify factors influencing the sector's profitability and sustainability. Time series of export volumes and prices were evaluated, revealing that the ARIMA model allows for accurate predictions of future trends. The results suggest that the Peruvian coffee sector faces challenges related to international price fluctuations and global competition. Emphasis is placed on the importance of efficiency in production and export processes to maintain and enhance the competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in the global market.

Impact of Forest Dieback on Hydrology and Nitrogen Export Using a New Dynamic Water Quality Model

AbstractForest status is crucial for catchment hydrology and water quality but is increasingly disturbed by human activities and climatic factors. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to develop water quality models that can adapt to these changes. This study used a new dynamic Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model to assess the effect of rapid and continuous forest changes on catchment hydrology and nitrogen export. The modified HYPE model was implemented for the 25 years period in the Große Ohe catchment in Germany, which has experienced severe forest dieback and recovery. Due to the stochastic nature of infestation events, data covering the entire process of forest change are rare. The modified HYPE model performed well at different scales for discharge and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export. It was able to (a) capture the timing of peak flows and the seasonal DIN concentration dynamics and (b) reflect the initial increase and subsequent decrease trend in discharge and DIN export in accordance with forest dieback and regeneration. The increase in nitrogen export after forest dieback primarily resulted from reduced forest uptake and increased soil nitrogen availability from tree residues. The difference in runoff and nitrogen export increment with or without regeneration highlights the importance of forest regeneration in restoring catchment hydrology and water quality. Additionally, a decrease in DIN export after residue removal implies the impact of sound post‐disturbance management strategies. The dynamic modeling under changing catchment forests can enhance the analysis of catchment water quality and effectively support forest management.

TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT AND DIVERSIFICATION OF EXPORTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

The article analyzes the dynamics of Uzbekistan's exports of goods and services from 2010 to 2023. It assesses the diversification of both the commodity structure and the geographic distribution of exports using the export product concentration index and the export diversification index. Statistical analysis of trends in Uzbekistan's exports during this period highlights the urgent need to accelerate diversification in both the structure and geography of exports. It emphasizes increasing the share of finished goods with high added value in the export portfolio, as well as diversifying and expanding services exports and enhancing regional export activities. To achieve this faster export diversification, a comprehensive set of interrelated measures is required across various areas of economic policy. This includes improvements in trade, investment, and industrial policies, along with deeper institutional reforms.

New trends of export of vocational education from China within «One Belt, One Road» initiative

Introduction. Over the past few years, the authorities of the People's Republic of China have begun to pay more and more attention to the development of vocational secondary and higher education. In addition to the growth and development of this area within the country, gradually with the increase in China’s presence on the world stage, the PRC is beginning to export its educational services abroad.Purpose setting. The purpose of the study was to identify the features of China's promotion of its education abroad. The task is to examine the main forms of export of Chinese vocational education to foreign countries.Methodology and methods of the study. Using general methods of scientific knowledge and using a large array of factual data and sources in Chinese, consider the trends in the spread of Chinese vocational education in the world.Results. China has opened a new page in the development of vocational education both within the country and by experimenting with new formats of international cooperation in this segment of education. An example of such projects is the opening of the so-called Lu Ban Workshops, created in honor of the famous Chinese philosopher, engineer and artisan of the 5th century BC, which train modern specialists with technical skills. In total, China has launched over 40 similar workshops abroad with 70 different modern specialties, where more than 11 thousand people have already been trained. After the successful launch of Lu Ban Workshops, various Chinese professional institutions began to open their own specialized workshops, including those for the development of automobile transport, maritime economy, printing, etc.Conclusion. Such projects, which today cover both the SCO countries and the participants of the «One Belt, One Road» initiative, create a new platform for international exchange and cooperation in the field of vocational education and help promote humanitarian exchanges between China and other countries of the world.

Changing relationships between armaments production and exports and state defense expenditures

The present study is relevant, because in different countries of the world in recent years there have been ambiguous dynamics among armaments and military equipment production and exports and changes in state defense expenditures. Modern geopolitical conflicts distort the existing picture of interrelations between the above parameters, and the article assesses their changes. In particular, as the study result, the underlying hypotheses on the relationships between supply and demand in the global market of armaments and military equipment have been formulated. The key countries analysis showed that the dynamics of indicators in them is determined by different reasons, but the author came to the conclusion that the main factors of changes in the trends of armaments production and exports and defense expenditures are the following: the expansion of illegal circulation of armaments and military equipment in some countries, increased vulnerability of some countries and their direct involvement in military-political conflicts, as well as differentiation of countries’ approaches to national security, which causes different attention to defense capabilities and the defense industry development. At the same time, there are almost always sharp changes and volatility of the indicators under consideration during the periods when a country is in the stage of industrialization or transition to a new technological mode.

Economic Analysis of the Export Trends of Livestock and Livestock Products in India

Livestock provides livelihood to two-third of rural masses and employs about 8.8 per cent population of India. While dairying ensures livelihood to 70 million farm families. The study utilized export data from government sources and conducted a statistical analysis to assess trends and stability. Data revealed that the overall export value increased significantly from ₹22,092.62 crore in 2011-12 to ₹48,947.55 crore in 2021-22, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.90%. Buffalo meat emerged as the leading export product, while dairy products exhibited a notable growth rate while dairy products and other categories showed varied growth. The instability index for the total exports was 19.02%, indicating moderate stability. State-wise analysis indicated Uttar Pradesh as the leading exporter, followed by Maharashtra and Haryana, with these three states together accounting for 85% of the total exports in 2021-22. The average growth rate of exports across states was 3.57%, demonstrating a stable growth pattern. Despite challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector showed resilience with a 13.98% growth in exports for 2021-22, aided by government initiatives. The analysis of dairy product exports highlighted a significant increase from ₹2,382.91 crore in 2020-21 to ₹4,742.70 crore in 2021-22, marking a 99% growth. The primary export destinations were the USA, Bangladesh, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Malaysia. A transitional probability matrix revealed shifts in market shares, with notable increases in the USA and Bangladesh. Trade performance from 2011-22 showed that India's export share in dairy products improved from 0.03% to 0.135%, while import share decreased significantly. The instability index for exports was 63.53%, reflecting high volatility. Investing in advanced breeding technologies to increase productivity, and enhancing market access through trade agreements and promotional activities. Additionally, policies to manage volatility, such as price stabilization measures and export incentives, could further support industry growth.

India's Tea Export Potential: Stirring up Global Trade Opportunities

India's tea industry, a significant player in the global market, is poised for growth amidst evolving trade dynamics. This paper explores India's tea export potential by examining production, export trends, and competitiveness on a global scale. In 2022, global tea production reached 6,422 million kilograms, with China and India being the largest producers, while Kenya led in exports. India, the second-largest producer and fourth-largest exporter, shipped tea worth approximately USD 706 million, primarily to the UAE, Iraq, Russia, the USA, and the UK. Methodologically, this study utilizes a gravity model with PPML estimation to analyze India's tea exports to 173 trading partners from 2004 to 2021, addressing zero trade observations. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indices are employed to assess competitiveness, revealing an upward trend in India's comparative advantage. Transitional probabilities provide insights into shifting trade patterns, indicating significant market instability in countries like Germany and the UK. The analysis also includes estimation results highlighting the impact of GDP, geographical distance, population, and other factors on India's tea exports. Results demonstrate that India has considerable potential to expand tea exports to 118 countries, with high prospects in Uzbekistan, the USA, France, Hong Kong, and Italy. Current export strategies focus on saturated markets, underscoring the need to explore untapped regions to maximize trade opportunities. This study highlights the necessity for India to diversify its export destinations to enhance its global trade footprint and leverage its growing competitiveness in the tea sector.

Export potential of millets from India: Current status and short-term forecast

This study examined the status and trends of millet exports from India and forecasts future exports based on monthly export data and the ARIMA-TDNN model. Millets, also known as nutri cereals, have been gaining attention for their potential to achieve food and nutritional security sustainably. The Indian government launched several initiatives to promote the cultivation and consumption of millets following the 2018 declaration of the National Year of Millets. Subsequently, the UN General Assembly declared 2023 as the International Year of Millets. India is a significant producer of millets, accounting for 17 per cent of the global cultivation area and 18 per cent of the world’s millet production. The average yield of millets in India is 1.40 t/ha, exceeding the global average. However, India accounts for less than 2 per cent of the world's millet exports. Keywords: Bajra, export, forecasting, neural network, nutri cereals, ragi, sorghum. JEL Codes: C53, Q17, Q18.

Transition in production and export potential of garlic in India

The present study analyzed the performance of production and export of Indian garlic based on secondary data collected from different governments departmental repositories and websites. Statistical techniques like mean, standard deviation, regression and CAGR was applied for analysis. Garlic held quantity share (29.68 %) of aggregate production of Indian spices. But in export front the share of quantity and value share of garlic estimated only 2.30 % and 1.21 % respectively of total spices export from the country. India ranked 2nd after China possessing 5.85% share of global production and growing with 9.93 % CAGR over last 15 years (2006-2020) which was 3.5 times higher than China. The major destinations for garlic export from India are Malaysia, Thailand, USA, Vietnam (South) and Nepal altogether constituted around 41 % value of average annual export. But out of these countries, negative trend in export was found in three countries makes India searching for new clients. The lower growth rate (CAGR) of productivity (1.91 %) of garlic compared to acreage (5.46 %) over three decades (1990-91 to 2020-21) harnesses for technological breakthrough. Two producing states of India viz., Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan account around 78.34 % of national production. But in terms of productivity, Punjab (11.39 t/ha), Haryana (10.67 t/ha) and Madhya Pradesh (10.31 t/ha) led the country. Enhancement of productivity through technological development and adequate market infrastructures along with improvement in post harvest management of the crop particularly processing might be given importance to increase production and export potential of garlic.

How Product Standards Influence Tea Exports? Empirical Evidence from India

India has witnessed a declining trend in tea exports in the recent period, which can partly be attributed to competition from exporters (e.g., Kenya and Sri Lanka) enjoying price advantages over the Indian varieties. However, although after the inception of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, the tariff barriers on Indian tea exports have come down across developed partners, the incidence of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) has emerged as a challenge in many destinations, with a possible dampening effect on exports. The present analysis attempts to analyse whether the imposition of product standard related measures, particularly sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) interventions, may have negatively influenced Indian tea exports over the period 1996–2021. Rather than considering the mere presence of SPS–TBT standards in major partner countries, their potential impacts on Indian tea exports have been determined by analysing the stringency levels of the corresponding notifications submitted to the WTO. The constructed stringency patterns are then incorporated into the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation models. The observed negative influence of standard-related measures in partner countries on Indian tea exports calls for policy interventions to enable the sector to better ensure compliance in the future.

Study on the Impact of State Relations on Chinas Industrial Supply Chain Upstream from the Perspective of International Trade: A Case Study of Mineral Resources

As a major global power, Chinas overseas interests are rapidly expanding. Ensuring the security of industrial supply chains has become a critical issue. This paper adopts the perspective of international trade, utilizing the random frontier gravity model, and focuses on the top five mineral products and raw materials exported from China to India according to the 2019 export composition table of the Ministry of Commerce of the Peoples Republic of China. Based on export data of these minerals from China to India between 2008 and 2023, this paper analyzes the trends in mineral import and export, studies the correlation between bilateral trade between China and India and changes in Sino-Indian relations, and points out the potential impact of current Sino-Indian relations on Chinas upstream industrial chain. The study finds that for mineral fuels, mineral oils and their products, asphalt, zinc and its products, and steel products, Sino-Indian relations have a relatively minor impact on Chinas imports of such minerals and raw materials from India. However, for steel resources, Sino-Indian relations show a significant positive correlation with their import situation. Based on the current state of Sino-Indian relations, the study will propose relevant recommendations for the production and export of Indian steel and other mineral resources, combined with the needs of Chinas upstream industrial supply chain. This study aims to provide relevant insights and references for safeguarding Chinas strategic mineral resource security.

Growth Dynamics and Export Potential of India's Poultry Sector: A Comprehensive Analysis

India ranks as the third largest egg producer and fifth largest producer of poultry meat globally. Commercial poultry farms accounts about eighty-five percent of countries' egg production, the remaining comes from household/backyard poultry. Poultry production plays a significant part in the socio-economic life of India's rural population. This research focused on growth trends, instability in egg and poultry meat production and export trend, instability and Markov chain model was used to identify the market share of importing countries and stable importers of Indian poultry products. The state wise analysis revealed that the Uttar Pradesh registered highest growth rate among the top ten egg producing states for the study period. The export of poultry products has positive growth. Oman and Maldives are reliable market partners for India’s poultry product over the period.

Export Performance Analysis on Indonesian Yellowfin Thunas (HS 030342) in the United States Market

Tuna is a major fish commodity that has high economic value that dominates the export market of Indonesian fishery industry products. This study was carried out to analyze competitiveness, comparative advantage, trading patterns and trends of Indonesian tuna exports in the United States market from 2013-2022 using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), and Constant Market Share (CMS). The results showed that Indonesia's RCA value is above one (>1) during the 2013-2022 period, meaning that Indonesian tuna has competitiveness, the RSCA value is also above one (>0), meaning that Indonesian tuna has a comparative advantage. According to the CMS analysis, Indonesia’s growth of standard exports to the United States is still lower than the growth of world standard exports to the United States so that Indonesia's export performance is still relatively low. The distribution effect of the Indonesian tuna market shows a positive value which means that Indonesia has succeeded in showing good product distribution performance to the market. The effect of commodity composition and the effect of competitiveness of Indonesian tuna shows a negative value so that Indonesia is considered to have not met the market and is less competitive.

TREND AND GROWTH OF INDIA’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN THE POST-REFORM PERIOD

The study is focused on evaluating the growth and trend of India's agricultural exports after the implementation of economic reforms. The changes in the composition and volume of agricultural exports and imports in the post-reform period, especially after the economic reforms of 1991, demonstrate significant shifts in India's agricultural trade. The liberalization measures adopted during this period, with the aim of integrating the Indian economy into the global market, have deeply influenced the agricultural sector. The post-reform period has seen substantial growth and diversification in India’s agricultural trade, influenced by liberalized trade policies, global market dynamics, and technological advancements. While opportunities for expansion remain, addressing challenges such as climate change, market access, and sustainability will be crucial for future growth. The results indicate that India's agricultural exports have experienced remarkable growth from 1990–1991 to 2020–2021. India's agricultural exports grew from $3.35 billion in 1990-91 to $35.93 billion in 2019-20, marking a nearly 12-fold increase over 30 years. The country is currently facing significant challenges such as low productivity and high logistics costs, limited value addition, challenges in export promotion and branding, non-tariff barriers, and quality issues.

Millets and Indigenous Food Systems in Indian Subcontinent: Revitalization, Resilience and Sovereignty

Millet serves as a nutritional powerhouse, brimming with minerals, protein, beneficial fats, calcium, and an array of vital nutrients. Of all the millet varieties, Ragi takes the lead with its remarkable calcium content. Millets play a pivotal role in promoting good health, exhibiting the capacity to combat a range of diseases, even including cancer. Furthermore, these grains are highly recommended for individuals dealing with diabetes, forming a valuable part of the diet for diabetic patients. Presently, millet cultivation spans across 131 nations, with India prominently positioned as a frontrunner, contributing 41% to the global millet production. Remarkably, India's stature extends further as it clinches the fifth spot among the world's millet exporters. Noteworthy is the fact that in December 2018, India's proposal for designating 2023 as the International Year of Millets was embraced by the FAO, subsequently declared in March 2023. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of millets, encompassing their definition, a nutritional juxtaposition with cereals, accrued health advantages, contribution of millet production to the attainment of SDGs, a comprehensive overview of millet's cultivation landscape concerning geographical extent, production, productivity, and export trends. Additionally, a substantial focus is dedicated to elaborating on the significance and implications of the International Year of Millets, reflecting India's proactive role in enhancing global awareness about these grains.

Indonesia's Rubber Exports to the United States

Rubber is one of Indonesia's leading plantation commodities exported to various countries, one of Indonesia's natural rubber market destinations is the United States. Based on data from the trade map, the export value of Indonesian natural rubber in the US market is in first place with an average value of 1,158,164 USD. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trend of Indonesian rubber exports to the United States and to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber in the United States. The data used is secondary data from 2013-2022. The analysis method used is trend analysis to determine the trend of export development and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis to analyze competitiveness. The results showed that the trend of Indonesia's natural rubber export volume decreased every year. RCA shows an average value of 67.856 which means that Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage and strong competitiveness in the American market.

Connecting past, present, and future trends of hydraulic and phosphorus loading in the Bay of Quinte tributaries, Ontario, Canada

Study regionThe Bay of Quinte watershed, located on the northeastern shore of Lake Ontario, Canada. Special focus is placed on the Napanee River and Wilton Creek catchments, where the presence of a subterranean network of conduits that facilitate groundwater-surface water interactions is conducive to an increase in the delivery of nutrients during storm events and can exacerbate the risk of eutrophication. Study focusDevelopment of a rigorous modelling framework that can advance our understanding of past and present trends of streamflow and tributary phosphorus (P) concentration and loads. We also analyze future streamflow rates and P export trends in order to guide the long-term watershed management in the area. Our analysis is carried out through a comprehensive combination of data-driven and process-based models. Novel hydrological insights for the regionRetrospective analysis provides evidence of a recent increase in the impact of nonpoint-source P pollution. General Circulation Models suggest a future increase in both temperature minima and maxima relative to present conditions (2002–2018). Precipitation projections are indicative of increased frequency of occurrence of high extreme precipitation events during the summer and mid-fall, when the Bay of Quinte is more susceptible to undesirable ecological shifts. Our study predicts a seasonality shift in the streamflow, with the spring freshet occurring earlier in the year accompanied by higher flow rates in the local creeks for the winter and early spring. We also examined the relationship between precipitation and streamflow across varying levels of flow regulation. Our analysis indicates that our predictive capacity declines with increased flow regulation as well as when streamflow rates are predicted by contemporaneous precipitation values.

Key factors influencing Hg levels and trends in unperturbed oligotrophic temperate and boreal lakes

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic metal that presents a major risk to ecosystems, biota, human health, and remains a priority concern. In temperate and boreal lakes Hg and methylmercury (MMHg) are expected to vary as a function of atmospheric Hg deposition, lake water chemistry, catchment characteristics and climate variables. The aim of this study was to quantify Hg and MMHg in unperturbed oligotrophic lakes and to identify the factors controlling their distribution. We first hypothesized that lake Hg (and MMHg to lesser extent) spatial variations are linked to atmospheric deposition, catchment characteristics, and terrestrial exportation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We secondly examined if lake Hg concentrations have followed the decrease in atmospheric Hg emission observed between the mid-1990s to the end-2010s. We found that overall, atmospheric Hg has little impact on lake Hg and MMHg concentrations, which are both primarily influenced by DOC input originating from the forest catchment. The relationship between DOC and Hg differed between the spring and the fall, with a Hg-to-DOC ratio twice as high in spring. This seems related to snowmelt input of Hg (with a relatively reduced input of DOC) or the internal lake build-up of Hg during the ice-covered period. Of the 10 lakes intensively visited over a 20-year period, only 3 showed significant lake Hg decreases despite significant negative trends in atmospheric Hg concentrations, suggesting a lag between atmospheric and surface water temporal trends. Overall, terrestrial catchments retain around 80% of atmospheric Hg implying that large Hg pools have been built up in soils in the last decades. As such, the reduction of atmospheric Hg alone will not necessarily result in Hg decreases in lakes, since the Hg concentrations may be modulated by DOC export trends and catchment characteristics. This stresses the need to improve our understanding of the processes governing Hg transfers from catchments into lakes.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of export trends for certain pharmaceutical groups

Background. The analysis of the exports of medicines of the Russian Federation (RF) by group 30 (pharmaceutical products) of the commodity nomenclature of foreign economic activity of the Eurasian Economic Union (equal to Harmonized System Code 30, HS 30) is an important task for determining the economic potential of the country in the pharmaceutical industry.Objective: building an export regression model. Development of an alternative mathematical model of pharmaceutical products’ export, suitable for making the forecast.Material and methods. Statistical data on HS 30 exports from 2010 to 2021 were taken from an open source: The International Trade Center (Trade Map). Data for 2022 and later for the Russian Federation are not available in open sources. Registration on the website is not required to collect statistics on export and import volumes based on annual data. The well-known statistical methods and methods of mathematical modeling were used. An alternative approach to regression analysis was developed. Technical data analysis was performed using MAPLE (Watcom Products Inc., Canada) and R (Bell Laboratories, USA) software.Results. Two models were constructed: Model I – a differential model based on cumulative data by year, and Model II – a model of standard regression analysis, the input parameters of which were quarterly export data, and the influencing parameters were a certain group of factors. Model I allowed considering the dynamics of changes in pharmaceutical exports over time (dynamic factors and nonlinear interactions). Model II, in turn, made it possible to determine the dependence of the volume of pharmaceutical exports on various economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, the volume of government procurement, and measures of protectionism. The relative error of Model I does not exceed 10%, which makes it suitable for forecasting.Conclusion. The construction and analysis of specified models help to provide main information about the trends in pharmaceutical product exports in the RF and assess its potential in the global market. The obtained results can be useful for developing strategies of the pharmaceutical industry development, making management decisions and forecasting future exports.