Deforestation Trends Research Articles

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects.

산업단지 개발로 인한 산림훼손 시ㆍ공간 경향 분석: 경상북도와 경상남도 사례를 중심으로

산업단지 개발로 인한 산림훼손 시ㆍ공간 경향 분석: 경상북도와 경상남도 사례를 중심으로

What has Driven Deforestation in Developing Countries Since the 2000s? Evidence from New Remote-Sensing Data

Summary Using newly-released and globally available high-resolution remote sensing data on forest loss, we update the assessment of the cross-country determinants of deforestation in developing countries. We validate most of the major determinants found in the previous literature, generally based on earlier time-periods, except for the role of institutional quality. Agricultural trade, hitherto relatively neglected, is found to be one of the main factors causing deforestation. Focusing on the effect of international trade, we show that countries with different levels of relative forest cover react differently to a shock in agricultural exports’ value. We also emphasize that taking countries’ development into account may be critical in assessing global deforestation trends. The impact of trade is high in countries still endowed with a large proportion of forest cover while it is lower in countries with smaller remaining forest cover. We finally estimate, through a simple calibration exercise, the requirements for a cost-effective REDD+ policy for compensating trade losses in an open economy exporting agricultural commodities and endowed with tropical forests. We conclude that, in a world with increasing global demand, it might be costly to compensate totally and thus to offer the right incentives for developing countries to limit deforestation.

Sediment load trends in the Magdalena River basin (1980–2010): Anthropogenic and climate-induced causes

The Colombian Andes and its main river basin, the Magdalena, have witnessed dramatic changes in land cover and further forest loss during the last three decades. For the Magdalena River, human activities appear to have played a more prominent role compared to rainfall (climate change) to mobilize sediment. However, environmental authorities in Colombia argue that climate change is the main trigger of erosion and floods experienced during the last decade. Here we present the first regional exercise addressing the following: (1) what are the observed trends of sediment load in the northern Andes during the last three decades? and (2) are sediment load trends in agreement with tendencies in land use change and climate (e.g., precipitation)? We perform Mann-Kendall tests on sediment load series for 21 main tributary systems during the 1980–2010 period. These gauging stations represent 77% of the whole Magdalena basin area. The last decade has been a period of increased pulses in sediment transport as seen by the statistical significant trends in load. Overall, six subcatchments, representing 55% of the analyzed Magdalena basin area, have witnessed increasing trends in sediment load. Also, some major tributaries have experienced changes in their interannual mean sediment flux during the mid- 1990s and 2005. Further analysis of land cover change (e.g., deforestation) indicates that the basin has undergone considerable change. Forest cover decreased by 40% over the period of study, while the area under agriculture and pasture cover (agricultural lands 1 and 2) increased by 65%. The highest peak of forest loss on record in the Magdalena basin, 5106km2 or 24% of the combined deforestation in Colombia, occurred during the 2005-2010 period. In contrast, Mann-Kendall tests on rainfall series for 61 stations reveal that precipitation shows no regional signs of increasing trends. Also, increasing trends in sediment load match quite well with the marked increase in forest clearance during the 1990–2000 and 2005–2010 periods. Such signs of increasing sediment fluxes should not be attributed to climate change and rainfall variability alone. As a whole, the Magdalena, one of the top 10 rivers in terms of sediment delivery to the ocean (184Mty−1), and its tributaries have experienced increasing trends in sediment load during the 1980–2010 period; increases in close agreement with trends in land use change and deforestation. During the last decade, the Magdalena River drainage basin has witnessed an increase in erosion rates of 34%, from 550tkm−2y−1 before 2000 to 710tkm−2y−1 for the 2000–2010 period, and the average sediment load for the whole basin increased to 44Mty−1 for the same period. Similar to the global picture of human contribution to sediment generation, the rate of anthropogenic soil erosion in the Magdalena basin probably exceeds the rate of climate-driven erosion by several orders of magnitude.

Development of National Database on Long-term Deforestation in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is one of the biodiversity hotspots of the world. This study has utilized satellite remote sensing and GIS techniques to generate a nation-wide database on forests, forest types and land use/land cover of Sri Lanka. Spatial assessment of forest cover changes was carried out for the periods 1976–1985, 1985–1994, 1994–2005 and 2005–2014. The landscape fragmentation analysis has carried out to calculate the spatial and temporal patterns of forest. Land use/land cover map was prepared representing seven classes in 2014. The plantations occupy a large area (34.2%) followed by forests (33.4%) and agriculture (26.1%) in 2014. During the period of 1976–2014, the forest has been decreased by 5.5%. From 1976 to 1985 forest recorded a loss at an annual rate of 0.49%. This annual rate decreased to 0.01% during 2005–2014 indicates declining trend of deforestation and effective conservation measures. The study found deforestation hotspots in south east and northern most parts of the Sri Lanka. Total number of patches estimated has increased from 15193 in 1976 to 16136 in 2014. The study has found that main causes of deforestation in Sri Lanka were due to expansion of agriculture and plantations. The extent of change detected in the study through geospatial techniques has significance to the forest ecology and management of natural landscapes in Sri Lanka.

Natural regeneration in the context of large‐scale forest and landscape restoration in the tropics

AbstractLarge‐scale and long‐term restoration efforts are urgently needed to reverse historical global trends of deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics. Restoration of forests within landscapes offers multiple social, economic, and environmental benefits that enhance lives of local people, mitigate effects of climate change, increase food security, and safeguard soil and water resources. Despite rapidly growing knowledge regarding the extent and feasibility of natural regeneration and the environmental and economic benefits of naturally regenerating forests in the tropics, tree planting remains the major focus of restoration programs. Natural regeneration is often ignored as a viable land‐use option. Here, we assemble a set of 16 original papers that provide an overview of the ecological, economic, and social dimensions of forest and landscape restoration (FLR), a relatively new approach to forest restoration that aims to regain ecological integrity and enhance human well‐being in deforested or degraded forest landscapes. The papers describe how spontaneous (passive) and assisted natural regeneration can contribute to achieving multiple social and ecological benefits. Forest and landscape restoration is centered on the people who live and work in the landscape and whose livelihoods will benefit and diversify through restoration activities inside and outside of farms. Given the scale of degraded forestland and the need to mitigate climate change and meet human development needs in the tropics, harnessing the potential of natural regeneration will play an essential role in achieving the ambitious goals that motivate global restoration initiatives.

Land use/land cover analysis and ecosystem services valuation in the central highlands of Ethiopia

We assessed the land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics and its associated changes in ecosystem service values for the Toke Kutaye district (ca 72,700 ha) in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Four satellite images of the study area, distributed between 1973 and 2014 were analyzed using Arc GIS software to assess the LULC changes of the area. In addition, we carried out an ecosystem services valuation, based on the identified LULC types and on the ecosystem services values database. Six LULC types were identified in the study area (forest, shrub/bush land, grassland, cultivated land, settlement, and bare land). Forest cover decreased 83% between 1973 and 2014. Settlement and cultivated land increased by 471 and 222%, respectively. The overall ecosystem services value reduced by 68%, and this was mainly due to deforestation. The use of LULC analysis combined to ecosystem services valuation improved our understanding of deforestation trends in the study area. We recommend the integration of LULC analysis and ecosystem service valuation as a tool that could better inform land managers and policy-makers in their decision-making processes.

The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

Forest Economies: A Remedy to Amazonian Deforestation?

Commonly described as the “lungs of the planet,” the Amazon rainforest represents over half of the remaining rainforest in the world, constituting an important global carbon sink and one of the most culturally- and biologically-diverse regions of the world. The past half-century has seen a worrisome amount of deforestation in this rainforest, but different regions within the Amazon, however, compare differently in terms of deforestation trajectories. What has been the role of products obtained from managing forests, such as the now globally-consumed açaí palm fruit, in reverting deforestation trends? My hypothesis is that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between such forest products and extent of deforestation. This study examines, within the historical and social context of the Amazon Delta and Estuary, the relationship between açaí agroforestry and deforestation. The focus units are the municípios (roughly equivalent to counties) that constitute the Amazon Delta and Estuary, all located in the northern Brazilian states of Amapá and Pará. Statistical data for deforestation obtained from PRODES, a Brazilian governmental project, which monitors deforestation via satellite, is used to ascertain deforestation in the region. This dataset is then correlated with census-based production data for each município for the period from 2002 to 2012. Mapping these variables onto municípios does visually demonstrate a contrast between areas of high deforestation and high açaí production; however, the relationship is not statistically significant.

Monitoring of deforestation and land use changes (1925–2012) in Idukki district, Kerala, India using remote sensing and GIS

The studies on forest cover change can reveal the status of forests and facilitate for its conservation planning. Idukki is the largest district in the state of Kerala having a total geographical area of 5019 km2. The objectives of the present study are to map forest cover in Idukki district using multi-temporal remote sensing data (1975, 1990, 2001 and 2012) and topographical maps (1925), to analyze the trends in deforestation and land use changes. Overall statistics for the period of 1925 indicate that about 4675.7 km2 (93.2 %) of the landscape was under forest. The forest cover in 2012 was estimated as 2613.4 km2 (52.1 %). Recently, due to the implementation of policies and protection efforts, the rate of deforestation was greatly reduced. The commencement of hydroelectric projects during 1925–1990 responsible for an increase of area under water bodies by inundating other land uses. The long term analysis shows agricultural area been decreasing and commercial plantations been increasing in the district. There has been a significant increase in the area of plantations from 1236.2 km2 (1975) to 1317.3 km2 (2012).

Geospatial analysis of forest fragmentation in Uttara Kannada District, India

Landscapes consist of heterogeneous interacting dynamic elements with complex ecological, economic and cultural attributes. These complex interactions help in the sustenance of natural resources through bio-geochemical and hydrological cycling. The ecosystem functions are altered with changes in the landscape structure. Fragmentation of large contiguous forests to small and isolated forest patches either by natural phenomena or anthropogenic activities leads to drastic changes in forest patch sizes, shape, connectivity and internal heterogeneity, which restrict the movement leading to inbreeding among Meta populations with extirpation of species. Landscape dynamics are assessed through land use analysis by way of remote sensing data acquired at different time periods. Forest fragmentation is assessed at the pixel level through computation of two indicators, i.e., P f (the ratio of pixels that are forested to the total non-water pixels in the window) and P ff (the proportion of all adjacent (cardinal directions only) pixel pairs that include at least one forest pixel, for which both pixels are forested). Uttara Kannada District has the distinction of having the highest forest cover in Karnataka State, India. This region has been experiencing changes in its forest cover and consequent alterations in functional abilities of its ecosystem. Temporal land use analyses show the trend of deforestation, evident from the reduction of evergreen - semi evergreen forest cover from 57.31 % (1979) to 32.08 % (2013) Forest fragmentation at the landscape level shows a decline of interior forests 64.42 % (1979) to 25.62 % (2013) and transition of non-forest categories such as crop land, plantations and built-up areas, amounting now to 47.29 %. PCA prioritized geophysical and socio variables responsible for changes in the landscape structure at local levels. Terrestrial forest ecosystems in Uttara Kannada District of Central Western Ghats have been experiencing threats due to deforestation with land use changes and fragmentation of contiguous forests, as is evident from the decline of interior forests and consequent increases in patch, transitional, edge and perforated forests. Interior or intact forest cover in this ecologically fragile region is now 25.62 %. Considering the accelerating rates of forest fragmentation in recent times, the focus should be on reforestation and regeneration of natural vegetation to sustain food and water security and the livelihood of local populations. This requires innovation with holistic approaches in the management of forests by involving all local stakeholders to minimize the encroachment of forests, and improvements in regeneration.

Conservation priorities of forest ecosystems: Evaluation of deforestation and degradation hotspots using geospatial techniques

Spatially explicit planning is required to set focused conservation priorities and assessing future ecological implications. Spatial ecological modeling and hotspot analysis prioritizes the forest ecosystems and supports the conservation of species level biodiversity. In the present study, the hotspots of deforestation and forest fires were obtained using historical deforestation trends (1975–1985–1995–2005–2014) and fire history (2009–2014) in Andhra Pradesh, India. The priority areas were identified as deforestation and degradation hotspots using combined measures of threat from deforestation, fire hotspots and current level of forest fragmentation. The state of Andhra Pradesh represents an area of 25985km2 (16.2% of total geographical area) under forest cover in 2014. The net deforested area was estimated as 2390km2 (8.4%) from 1975 to 2014. We have calculated the region of influence in percentages and found deforestation hotspots covering an average of 40.2% forest, followed by 35.9% under high fragmentation and 19.2% under fire hotspots. Ecosystem level analysis has been carried out for all the forest types i.e., semi evergreen, moist deciduous, dry deciduous, dry evergreen, thorn and mangroves, indicating ecosystem vulnerability. According to the results of prioritization, about 10.5% of existing forest had severe ecosystem collapse and categorized as deforestation and degradation hotspot-I. Analysis of protected areas shows Nagarjunasagar Srisailam Tiger Reserve, Sri Peninsula Narasimha sanctuary, Papikonda sanctuary and Sri Venkateshwara sanctuary are representing deforestation and degradation hotspot-I. Deforestation and degradation hotspots identified in the study is an excellent surrogate for understanding anthropogenic disturbances and can be effectively useful in forest management to proceed for applicable restoration measures.

Crisis of the Wasteful Nation: Empire and Conservation in Theodore Roosevelt’s America. By Ian Tyrrell.

Ian Tyrrell has long been interested in ways that Americans connect with other parts of the world through nature, whether by importing alien species of trees and plants or ideas about conservation. In this fascinating study, Tyrrell brings his perspective to bear on one of the oldest chestnuts of American environmental history: the early conservation movement of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Historians have typically portrayed that movement as originating from diminishing forests and wildlife, threats to scenic wonders, and schemes to irrigate the arid West. Tyrrell concurs while also pointing out that the push for conservation gained strength following the U.S. acquisition of the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Hawai’i, and other areas in the tropical world. The making of the American empire, he argues, greatly shaped how American leaders—notably, Theodore Roosevelt—thought about diminishing forests, minerals, and water sources around the world. Tyrrell traces their thinking with regard to global trends in deforestation, demand for fossil fuels, interest in irrigation, and concerns over public health. In their minds, the time had come for Americans to regulate forests, game animals, and energy sources, but so too ought the rest of the world, not least because American prosperity and imperial power increasingly depended on prudent use of natural resources.

Deforestation in Australia: drivers, trends and policy responses

Australia’s terrestrial environment has been dramatically modified since European colonisation. Deforestation – the clearing and modification of native forest for agricultural, urban and industrial development – remains a significant threat to Australia’s biodiversity. Substantial policy reform over the last 40 years has delivered a range of policy instruments aimed to control deforestation across all Australian States and Territories. Despite these policy efforts – as well as strong governance and high institutional capacity – deforestation rates in Australia were nonetheless globally significant at the turn of this century. Legislation introduced in Queensland and New South Wales during the mid-2000s was at the time seen to have effectively ended broad-scale clearing; however, recent policy changes have raised concerns that Australia may again become a global hotspot for deforestation. Here, I describe the deforestation trends, drivers and policy responses in Australia over the last four decades. Using satellite imagery of forest cover and deforestation events across Australia between 1972 and 2014, I present a comprehensive analysis of deforestation rates at a fine resolution. I discuss trends in deforestation with reference to the institutional, macroeconomic and environmental conditions that are associated with human-induced forest loss in Australia. I provide a detailed history and critique of the native vegetation policies introduced across Australia over the last 40 years, including recent legislative amendments and reviews. Finally, I comment on future prospects for curbing deforestation in Australia, including the role of incentive-based policies such as carbon farming, private land conservation and biodiversity offsets. Despite being a highly active policy space, very little is known of the effectiveness of policy responses to deforestation in Australia, and whether the recent shift away from ‘command and control’ policies will necessarily lead to better outcomes. My analysis demonstrates the need for an effective policy mix to curb deforestation in Australia, including a greater focus on monitoring, evaluation and policy learning.

Land Use/Land Cover Change and its Effects on Bamboo Forest in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Ethiopia

Bamboo deforestation has become a serious problem in Ethiopia threatening the bamboo biodiversity and the people who depend on bamboo income. Previous studies mostly emphasize on mechanical, physical and biological characterization of the lowland bamboo. Earlier studies rarely relay on measuring the trend and magnitude of bamboo deforestation. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to examine the rate and magnitude of bamboo deforestation and identify the driving factors of LU/LC change. Data for the study were obtained from geographic information system (GIS) with ground verification. To supplement the GIS and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) result, a random sample of 384 households was interviewed. In addition, key informants interview and focus group discussions were held to validate the required data. The result generally revealed the declining state of bamboo forest over the past 26 years. The 2006 year’s NDVI value shows that a household owned 3.846 hectares of forest land. The result indicated a decline in forest to 2.027 hectare in 2012. The result showed 52.704 percent decline in forest land cover. Moreover, the survey result indicated that from 2009-2013, about a 0.014 hectares of bamboo forest was converted to agricultural land. On average, a household has converted an average of 0.081 hectares of forestland into agriculture land. Our evidence also shows that the lowland bamboo forest cover in the region has devastated due to anthropogenic and natural factors. This result implies that if the same trend continues, the available bamboo stock will vanish in shorter period of time. Therefore, quick rehabilitation and mass bamboo restocking policy shall be designed by the regional government in order to regenerate and conserve the lowland bamboo resources.

Multi-species and multifunctional smallholder tree farming systems in Southeast Asia: timber, NTFPs, plus environmental benefits

The rapid increase in human population, and the corresponding worldwide enhancement of social and economical conditions, are exerting a considerable pressure to convert forests to other uses. Moreover, these phenomena raise the demand for food, fuel, wood fibers and other non-wood products, contributing to a further boost of the production pressure in the surviving forests. Simultaneously, these forests are expected to provide a diverse array of environmental services. Furthermore, smallholder forestry systems are prominent components of ‘ trees outside the forest’ in Southeast Asia and they are primarily ‘planted’ systems that rehabilitate or reforest marginal lands, in order to produce tree products and services. As they traditionally are a means of producing goods for home consumption, they have become significant suppliers of products for local, national and international markets. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that smallholder forestry systems are a viable management system which is significantly contributing to global environmental goals and local economic objectives. This paper reviews global and Asian trends of human population growth, deforestation, and demand for forest and tree products. The origin, the diversity, the adaptable management and the importance of smallholder tree-based systems are here discussed and significant details are provided on the role of smallholder tree-based systems in the mitigation of deforestation, which could be obtained by expanding regional forest resources; in supplying alternative sources of forest products and environmental benefits; and in making significant contributions to local livelihoods for rural communities.

Spatial modeling of deforestation processes in the Central Peruvian Amazon

This study examines the relation between primary forest loss and landscape characteristics in the Ucayali region, Peru. Seven variables (rivers, elevation, annual precipitation, soil suitability for agriculture, population density, paved roads, and unpaved roads), were identified as potential deforestation drivers. The variables were converted into spatially explicit layers of continuous data and divided into a 9km2 grid. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine variable significance. Distance to paved and unpaved roads were strongly associated with deforestation, followed by distance to rivers, annual precipitation and elevation. All significant variables were negatively correlated with deforestation. Variables excluded from the model were population density and soil suitability for agriculture, suggesting that the influence of population density on forest clearing across the study area was not significant, and that deforestation activities were undertaken regardless whether soils are suitable for agriculture or not. Based on the linear regression analysis, the significant variables were selected and added to the Land Change Modeler in order to project primary forest coverage by 2025. The modeling results predict extensive deforestation along the Aguaytia River and at the forest/non-forest interface along the paved highway. The rate of primary forest removal is expected to increase from 4783hay−1 (for the 2007–2014 period) to 5086hay−1 (for the 2015–2025 period). A preliminary survey questionnaire conducted to explore deforestation intentions by farmers in the region, partly confirmed the overall deforestation trends as projected by the model.

ANALISIS POTENSI PENDAPATAN DARI MEKANISME REDD SEKTOR KEHUTANAN DI INDONESIA

Indonesia faces serious problems in the forestry sector. The forest area covers about 70 percent of the total area spread over 33 provinces, have been damaged more than 37 percent on many levels. Department of Forestry reported deforestation reached 1 million hectares per year since 2000. If the condition is not change then the year 2050 the entire forest will be gone.This study focus to calculate the value of potential income that can be accepted if the REDD mechanism is applied in Indonesia. The methodology used in this study are mathematics and descriptive statistics using secondary data. Source of data are obtained the Central Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Forestry and other sources. The results showed that according the baseline, the growth trends in deforestation by using 2000 - 2005, Indonesian forest destruction reached 35.277 million hectares on 2017 with 15 percent growth assumption damage.By implementing 3 simulations assuming that the decreased the rate of deforestation by 15 percent, 50 percent and 75 percent, the study provides results that the potential revenue are vary from of U.S. $ 20.155 million to U.S. $ 532.530 million. Estimated potential revenue is determined by the ability to decrease the growth rate of deforestation. The higher the ability to decrease the rate of deforestation, the higher the potential for carbon stock is maintained. On the other side encouraging the increasing deforestation of forest produce higher emissions more carbon stock disappear.

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands

Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world’s first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13millionha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present–2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use.

Conserving Biogeography: Habitat Loss and Vicariant Patterns in Endemic Squamates of the Cerrado Hotspot.

Little is known about the threat levels and impacts of habitat loss over the Cerrado Squamate fauna. The region is under severe habitat loss due to mechanized agriculture, accelerated by changes in the Brazilian National Forest Code. The Squamate fauna of the Cerrado is rich in endemics and is intrinsically associated with its surrounding microhabitats, which make up a mosaic of phitophysiognomies throughout the region. Herein we evaluate current conservation status of Squamate biogeographic patterns in the Brazilian Cerrado, the single savanna among global biodiversity hotspots. To do so, we first updated point locality data on 49 endemic Squamates pertaining to seven non-random clusters of species ranges in the Cerrado. Each cluster was assumed to be representative of different biogeographic regions, holding its own set of species, herein mapped according to their extent of occurrence (EOO). We then contrasted these data in four different scenarios, according to the presence or absence of habitat loss and the presence or absence of the current protected area (PA) cover. We searched for non-random patterns of habitat loss and PA coverage among these biogeographic regions throughout the Cerrado. Finally, with the species EOO as biodiversity layers, we used Zonation to discuss contemporary PA distribution, as well as to highlight current priority areas for conservation within the Cerrado. We ran Zonation under all four conservation scenarios mentioned above. We observed that habitat loss and PA coverage significantly differed between biogeographic regions. The southernmost biogeographic region is the least protected and the most impacted, with priority areas highly scattered in small, disjunct fragments. The northernmost biogeographic region (Tocantins-Serra Geral) is the most protected and least impacted, showing extensive priority areas in all Zonation scenarios. Therefore, current and past deforestation trends are severely threatening biogeographic patterns in the Cerrado. Moreover, PA distribution is spatially biased, and does not represent biogeographic divisions of the Cerrado. Consequently, we show that biogeographic patterns and processes are being erased at an accelerated pace, reinforcing the urgent need to create new reserves and to avoid the loss of the last remaining fragments of once continuous biogeographic regions. These actions are fundamental and urgent for conserving biogeographic and evolutionary information in this highly imperiled savanna hotspot.