Changing Trends Research Articles

Abstract 4122048: Disparities in Heart Failure-Related Mortality Among Reproductive-Aged Women in the United States from 1999 to 2019

Introduction: Heart failure (HF) majorly affects the elderly, but can also affect the younger population. This study aims to examine the trends of HF-related deaths among reproductive-aged women in the United States (US). Method: We conducted a retrospective analysis using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database, extracting data through ICD-10 codes I11, I13.0, I13.2, and I50 to find HF-related deaths among women aged 15-44 from 1999 to 2019. We examined demographic disparities in HF mortality rates over time, considering age, ethnicity, and geographic areas. Results were reported as age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Joinpoint regression assessed trend changes and annual percentage change (APC). Results: Between 1999 and 2019, a total of 43,683 women aged 15-44 died from HF in the US, with an AAMR of 3.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 3.5-3.5). The AAMR increased from 2.6 in 1999 to 4.8 in 2019. Non-Hispanic Black women had the highest AAMR at 10.2, while Hispanics had the lowest at 1.8. Geographically, the South was the most affected region with an AAMR of 4.6, contributing to nearly half (48.9%) of all deaths. States including Massachusetts, Oregon, New Hampshire, and Minnesota had the lowest AAMRs. Rural areas showed a higher AAMR compared to urban areas (4.4 Vs. 3.3). The age group (35-44) accounted for the majority of deaths (73.7%). Conclusion: HF-related mortality among reproductive-aged women increased from 1999 to 2019, with the highest burden among non-Hispanic Black women and those in the Southern region. Enhancing access to care, particularly in rural areas, and implementing targeted prevention programs are vital to reducing mortality rates.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Listeria monocytogenes in Non-Ready-to-Eat Frozen Vegetables

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model was developed to evaluate the risk of invasive listeriosis from the consumption of non-ready-to-eat (non-RTE) frozen vegetables. On a lot basis, the QRA model simulates Listeria monocytogenes concentration and prevalence in a “Processing module” that comprises blanching, potential recontamination and packaging, any post-packaging inactivation treatment, and within-lot end-product testing and in a subsequent “Consumer’s handling module” that encompasses portioning of frozen vegetables, defrosting, and cooking. Based on available published data, the model was coded in nine sequential R functions designed to assess the effectiveness of blanching, the improvement in processing environment hygiene, the implementation of sampling schemes at the end of processing, and improved consumer instructions on the product’s package. In a reference scenario, the model estimated that 9.4% of 500 g packages of frozen vegetables would be contaminated, although at mean levels lower than 10 CFU/g, and assuming that 20% of the portions of frozen vegetables would be left to thaw at room temperature for 2 h, the lot-level mean risk of listeriosis in the susceptible population would be 2.935 × 10−14 (median 5.446 × 10−15) for uncooked 50 g servings and 2.765 × 10−17 (median 5.184 × 10−18) for cooked 50 g servings. Analysis of selected scenarios suggested that not cooking the non-RTE product contributes to the risk to a greater extent than the level of contamination in the incoming raw vegetables, the latter in turn being more influential than the level of contamination in the processing environment. The QRA model is freely available as an R package with full documentation and can be used as a tool to inform the consideration of strengthened risk management measures in view of the current changes in consumer behavior and new diet trends.

Changes in weight distribution and trends in obesity among children and adolescents in East Asia: Insights from NCD-RisC data.

Pediatric obesity is a serious global health challenge. In East Asia, rapid socioeconomic changes have increased obesity rates. This study examines weight distribution and obesity trends in East Asian children using WHO criteria. Data from the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration was used to analyze weight categories (thinness, normal weight, overweight, and obesity) among children aged 5 to 19 in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Data were collected through probabilistic sampling and national surveys and classified using WHO BMI standards. Age standardized prevalence rate enabled cross-country comparisons for boys and girls from 2010 to 2022. Statistical methods included arithmetic statistics, linear regression, and time series analysis using the ARIMA model, with SAS 9.4 and SPSS for analysis. Significant trends were found (p for trend < 0.05). Taiwan and South Korea showed increased thinness, while China and Japan showed decreases. Normal weight prevalence declined, notably among South Korean boys. Overweight and obesity rates rose, especially among South Korean boys and Chinese girls. Japan's rates remained stable, while Taiwan showed minor fluctuations. Boys had higher overweight and obesity rates than girls in all countries. The highest rates were among children aged 10 to 11 years. East Asia, particularly South Korea and China, has seen rising obesity rates. Increasing thinness in South Korea and Taiwan also requires attention. The decline in healthy-weight children is concerning. Interventions should target children before ages 10 to 11. Urgent, tailored public health interventions are needed.

Abstract 4139135: Trends in Stroke Related Mortality in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Aged 25 and Older in the United States: Insights from the CDC WONDER Database

Background: Stroke associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant cause of mortality. This CDC analysis delves into mortality trends due to stroke in AF patients aged ≥ 25 years, from 1999 to 2020. By analyzing extensive datasets we scrutinized how factors such as gender, race, region of residence, and level of urbanization intersect with mortality rates. Methods: Death data from 1999 to 2020 was analyzed using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention database, employing ICD codes I48 for AF and I64 for stroke. Age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) per 100,000 people with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for the total population, stratified by gender, race, urban/rural status, and census region. The Joinpoint regression software was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) trend for each stratification. Results: In the U.S. between 1999 and 2020, total of 331,106 deaths occurred among adults due to AF associated with stroke. Deaths occurred predominantly in medical facilities (43.2%). The overall AAMR for AF associated stroke decreased from 26.8 per 100,000 in 1999 to 18.4 in 2020, with an AAPC of -2.05 (p value &lt; 0.000001). Additionally, AAMR declined significantly from 1999 to 2018 (APC: -2.65, p value = 0.012398), followed by an increase from 2018 to 2020 (APC: 3.90, p value = 0.220356). Women had slightly higher AAMRs compared to men (men: 6.6; women: 7.1). The AAMR for women reduced substantially from 1999 to 2020 than for men. AAMRs varied among racial/ethnic groups, with White patients having the highest AAMR (7.4), followed by Blacks (5.4), American Indian or Alaska Natives (4.6), Asian or Pacific Islanders (4.5), and Hispanic population (4.1). AAMRs decreased for all races except for Black population. Geographically, AAMRs ranged from 4.3 in Nevada to 11.9 in Vermont, with the Western region showing the highest mortality (AAMR: 7.9). Nonmetropolitan areas had slightly higher AAMRs than metropolitan areas, with both experiencing a decrease over the study period. Conclusion: This analysis depicts significant disparities in mortality rates attributed to stroke associated with AF and underscores the need for larger population-based studies to further understand the primary factors influencing the observed geographical, racial, and gender differences. Targeted interventions and equitable healthcare access are crucial to mitigate these disparities and improve outcomes for this population.

Abstract 4112853: Trends in Statin Use for the Secondary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease among U.S. Adults by Age, 1999-2020

Background: Current research focusing on trends in statin medication usage, particularly for different age groups, is limited. This study explored the change trends in statin usage from 1999 to 2020, with a specific focus on different age groups. Methods: Utilizing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey spanning the period from 1999 to 2020, our study included individuals aged 18 years and older diagnosed with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Results: In the 18-44 years age group, usage changed from 18.34% (95% CI, 0.18 to 36.50) in 1999 to 16.63% (95% CI, 0.36 to 32.91) in 2020 (linear P value = 0.540, quadratic P value = 0.610) (Figure 1). For individuals aged 45-64 years, usage increased from 39.33% (95% CI, 29.62 to 49.05) in 1999 to 54.97% (95% CI, 47.10 to 662.83) in 2020 (linear P value &lt; 0.001, quadratic P value = 0.777) (Figure 1). In the group aged 65 years and older, usage increased from 35.17% (95% CI, 29.57 to 40.77) in 1999 to 60.62% (95% CI, 55.73 to 65.51) in 2010, and further to 68.62% (95% CI, 63.65 to 73.60) in 2020 (quadratic P value &lt; 0.001) (Figure 1). There was an interaction effect between statin usage trends and age (P for interaction &lt;0.001) (Figure 1). Conclusion: Overall, current health policies are effective for the use of statins for the secondary prevention of ASCVD. However, there was almost no improvement in statin usage within the 18-44 years age group. This highlights the need for greater focus on young ASCVD patients. Therefore, additional research is needed on statin use among young people.

Additional neighborhood effects following renovation of historical heritage: an empirical investigation of the case of Himeji Castle

AbstractHistorical buildings require periodic renovation to ensure that their historical value is preserved for future generations. In this study, we use the renovation project conducted at Himeji Castle over about 5 and a half years from 2009 as a case study to analyze the impact of the renovation on the neighboring areas. As shown by the changes in land price trends, it was found that the renovation project had the effect of accelerating the upward trend in land price during the renovation period. In some areas, however, this acceleration effect was shown to diminish after the completion of the project. Nevertheless, the short-term increase in land price during this period was found to be sustained even after the completion of the project. We consider this price increase to be a neighborhood effect created by the renovation.

Analisis Peran Media Sosial Dalam Meningkatkan Branding Wisata Jolotundo Glamping And Edu Park Nganjuk

This research aims to analyze the role of social media in enhancing the branding of Jolotundo Glamping and Edupark Nganjuk. The main challenges in improving tourism branding include competition with other destinations, the growth of global connectivity, information technology, and competition among destinations. These factors require effective marketing strategies. Additionally, changes in consumer trends and technology can affect the effectiveness of social media strategies. Social media has significant power in reaching a broad audience and influencing public perception of a destination. In the context of tourism, social media plays a crucial role in increasing widespread popularity and building a positive image of this destination. The data collection techniques used in this research include observation, interviews, and documentation. Data analysis is conducted using qualitative descriptive methods. The research findings show that social media can enhance the branding of Jolotundo Glamping and Edupark through the planning of forming a special social media team, selecting social media platforms, and engaging third parties. The implementation involves having a dedicated social media team, choosing Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube, and collaborating with third parties such as Niken Salindri and Woko Chanel. The impact of social media includes an increase in the number of tourists, a rise in social media engagement, and an increase in the diversity of visitor origins.

Prediction of long-term future runoff under multi-source data assessment in a typical basin of the Yangtze River

Study regionThree Typical Basins of the Yangtze River (YRB), China Study focusMeteorological factors, such as precipitation, are key drivers of the hydrological system and critical inputs in hydrological modeling, and accurate meteorological data are essential to simulate hydrological processes. This study compares and evaluates the CN05.1, CMFD, and ERA5-L and meteorological forcing datasets in three typical basins of the Yangtze River and predicts the future runoff changes in the basin based on CMIP6 data. New hydrological insights for the regionThis study indicated that (1) the CN05.1 data exhibit the best applicability on the interannual and intra-annual scales in YRB, while ERA5-Land performs better in the upper reaches, and CMFD is more suitable for the middle and lower reaches. (2) Future runoff is projected to initially decrease and then increase, with the inflection and inflections points of runoff occurring earlier in the ssp585 scenario compared to the ssp245. The risk of spring flooding is increasing in CS and JZ river basin, and the risk of flooding is decreasing in the FH River Basin as the flood peaks are earlier. (3) Significant trend changes are anticipated in the future, with climate change contributing over 90 % of the runoff changes in the CS, while human factors will increasingly influence the JZ and FH basins.

Parameters of Collision and Adhesion Process Between a Rising Bubble and Quartz in Long-Chain Amine Solution and Their Correlation with Flotation

The successful adhesion of air bubbles to mineral particles is the crucial to flotation technology. This paper systematically investigates the parameters variation in the dynamic interaction process between a rising bubble and a quartz plate in long-chain amine solutions (dodecylamine, tedecylamine, and octadecylamine). The results show that the type and concentration of long-chain amine affected the collision and adhesion process between bubbles and quartz plates remarkably. The maximum rebound distance (rebound distance after the first collision) of bubbles and the stable-state liquid film thickness gradually decreases with the increase of reagent concentration. Additionally, the collision-rebound duration and induction time shorten accordingly, the surface tension of the solution decreases, the surface hydrophobicity of quartz increases, and the deformation degree and average movement velocity of bubbles decrease. With the increase in carbon chain length, the adsorption form of the amine collector and quartz surface becomes closer to vertical, and the density of water molecules decreases. The recovery of quartz particles is highest with octadecylamine systems, corresponding well with the changing trend in steady-state liquid film thickness. This research provides an effective method for in-depth analysis of the microscopic interaction mechanism between bubbles and mineral surfaces and the prediction of flotation results.

Lacustrine Wetlands Landscape Simulation and Multi-Scenario Prediction Based on the Patch-Generating Land-Use Simulation Model: A Case Study on Shengjin Lake Reserve, China

Landscape simulation and prediction are crucial for understanding the dynamic evolution and future trends of wetlands. However, only a few existing studies have focused on the applicability and limitations of commonly used land-use/cover change (LUCC) simulation models in lake wetland landscapes. Taking Shengjin Lake Reserve in China as the study area, we firstly analyzed landscape variations during 2010–2020 using multisource remote sensing images. Then, the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model was employed to simulate wetland landscapes in 2020, the accuracy and limitation of which in simulating lacustrine wetlands were also explored. Lastly, the changing trends of wetland landscapes in 2030 under different development scenarios were predicted. The results show that the landscape of Shengjin Lake Reserve has changed significantly during 2010–2020, with increases in mudflats, reservoirs/ponds, woodlands, and built-up land, and there has been decreases in lakes, grass beaches, and croplands. The PLUS model demonstrated an ideal simulation accuracy for Shengjin Lake Reserve, with the overall accuracy exceeding 80%, kappa coefficient greater than 0.75, and figure of merit (FOM) coefficient of 0.35, indicating that the model can capture the dynamic changes in wetland landscapes accurately. The simulation accuracy can be effectively improved with the adjacent initial year, shorter time interval, and the primary driver factors. Under the natural development scenario, the number of patches in the Shengjin Lake Reserve increased sharply, and landscape fragmentation intensified. Under the urban development scenario, the expansion of built-up land increased, and the average patch area increased. In the ecological protection scenario, the Shannon diversity index and Shannon evenness index of the landscape improved significantly, and the natural wetlands such as grass beaches and lakes can be protected effectively. Our study confirms the applicability of the PLUS model in simulating and predicting lacustrine wetlands landscapes, and the conclusions provide a scientific basis for formulating reasonable development strategies to realize wetland resource conservation and management.

Dementia Prevalence, Incidence, and Mortality Trends Among U.S. Adults Ages 72 and Older, 2011-2021.

U.S.-focused studies have reported decreasing dementia prevalence in recent decades, but have not yet focused on the implications of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic for trends. We use the 2011-2021 National Health and Aging Trends Study (N = 48 065) to examine dementia prevalence, incidence, and mortality trends among adults ages 72 and older, and the contribution to prevalence trends of changes in the distribution of characteristics of the older population ("compositional shifts") during the full and prepandemic periods. To minimize classification error, individuals must meet dementia criteria for 2 consecutive rounds. The prevalence of probable dementia declined from 11.9% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2019 and 8.2% in 2021 (3.1% average annual decline). Pre-pandemic declines continued for women and non-Hispanic White individuals and emerged over the 2011-2021 period for men and those ages 80-89. Declines in dementia incidence were stronger for the 2011-2021 period than for the prepandemic period, while mortality among those with dementia rose sharply with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shifts in the composition of the older population accounted for a smaller fraction of the decline over the full period (27%) than over the prepandemic period (45%). Declines in dementia prevalence continued into years marked by onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with declines in incidence and sharp increases in mortality among those with dementia. However, declines are no longer largely attributable to compositional changes in the older population. Continued tracking of dementia prevalence, incidence, and mortality among those with and without dementia is needed to understand long-run consequences of the pandemic.

Short-term interval prediction strategy of photovoltaic power based on meteorological reconstruction with spatiotemporal correlation and multi-factor interval constraints

Short-term photovoltaic (PV) power interval prediction provides a basis for day-ahead power dispatching and generation planning. However, the current gridded numerical weather prediction (NWP) has poor matching in specific PV stations, and the lack of consideration of PV power mutation characteristics and historical correlation in interval prediction, which further limit the improvement of PV power prediction accuracy. In this regard, this paper proposes a novel short-term interval prediction strategy for PV power. Based on the second-order extended hidden Markov model (HMM), the key meteorological elements of the PV station with poor matching are reconstructed. In the interval prediction, the trend mutation and historical correlation characteristics of the PV sequence are fully considered, and a PV power interval prediction method that combines three factors such as trend change, time correlation and numerical mutation is proposed. The proposed method is applied to a PV station in Jilin, China. The results show that compared with other methods, the RMSE of the proposed method is reduced by 5.3 % on average, and the CWC is reduced by at least 2.1 %, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Changes in starch properties during malting and their correlations with the malting quality of multiple barley cultivars

AbstractBackground and ObjectiveThere is still a lack of information about detailed dynamic changes in starch properties during malting among multiple barley varieties and correlations of starch properties with malting qualities. In this work, compositional, physicochemical, morphological, and structural properties of starches from four barley varieties at six time points across the malting process were first investigated to better understand the starch modification of barley malting. Furthermore, a total of 30 barley varieties were used to investigate the relationship between malting qualities and starch properties. The results provide a reference for breeding high‐malting quality barley based on starch properties.FindingsSignificant decreases in starch contents, paste viscosities, relative crystallinity, as well as the ratio of 1045/1022 cm−1 of starch, were exhibited, while comparatively small changes were found in the thermal parameters during malting. Amylose and amylopectin polymers were both hydrolyzed in malting. After malting, pits and holes were discovered on the surface of some starch granules. Four parameters of peak viscosity (PV), breakdown, peak time (PeT), and pasting temperature (PT) had significant correlations with diastatic power (DP), while the above four indicators together with amylose content, total starch content, onset temperature, peak temperature, and swelling power had significant correlations with malt extract (ME).ConclusionsThe trend of changes in starch properties among all four genotypes was similar. However, the variety with better malting quality showed a greater degree of measurements in some starch characters. Starch properties are mainly related to the two malting quality indicators of DP and ME.Significance and NoveltyPV, breakdown, PeT, and PT had significant correlations with malting qualities.

Effect of Nickel Impurities in Pyrite on Catalytic Degradation of Thiosulfate

The effects of nickel content in nickel-bearing pyrite on photocatalytic properties, light absorption properties, and oxidative decomposition of thiosulfate were studied. The leaching experiments show that the consumption of thiosulfate in the Cu2+-ethylenediamine (en)-S2O32− system increases with an increase in nickel content in nickel-bearing pyrite. The consumption of Cu(en)22+ initially increases and then decreases with an increase in leaching time. There is a clear correlation between the change trend in its consumption and the doping amount of nickel in pyrite. The XPS results show that in the Cu2+-ethylenediamine (en)-S2O32− leaching gold system (temperature 25 °C, time 35 h, solution: 0.1 mol/L S2O32−, 5 mmol/L Cu(en)22+, 200 mL solution), the nickel of pyrite-containing nickel can be transferred to the leaching solution and becomes nickel ion. In this leaching system, Cu(II), which was originally complexed with en, is reduced to Cu(I) in a short time. The consumption of Cu(en)22+ increased rapidly in the 5 h period and then decreased gradually after 5 h. The results showed that the presence of free Ni2+ in the solution facilitated the conversion of bivalent copper ions to monovalent copper ions. Free Ni2+ ions can compete with Cu2+ ions for en ligands. When ethylenediamine complexes with Ni2+, the decomposition of Cu(en)22+ into Cu(en)+ and en occurs more rapidly. And the en, which was originally to be oxidized with Cu(en)+ to form Cu(en)22+, forms Ni(en)22+. As a result, the concentration of Cu(en)22+ continues to decrease in a short period of time.

Changes in the soil and vegetation cover of the Kochubey biosphere station under global warming in recent years

Objectives: The study and long-term observations of changes in the spatial structure of vegetation cover of pasture landscapes of the Kochubey Biosphere Station (KBS) due to global climate warming. Arid pasture landscapes, due to the peculiarities of their spatial structure (the presence of semi-desert vegetation groupings) are a good indicator of modern climatic changes. To achieve this goal, the spatial structure and the current state of the arid landscapes of the Northwestern Caspian Sea in the territory of the KBS have been studied. The analysis of the biological diversity of species was carried out. Also the characteristics of the common features of seasonal dynamics of landscapes were studied. Moreover, trends of climatic changes in the landscape structure of the territory and trends in anthropogenic transformation of arid landscapes of the region were identified. It has been revealed that the main reasons for the reduction of biodiversity are habitat fragmentation, the introduction of alien species, the settlement of native species outside the range, ecotonization and “islandization” of pasture ecosystems, and the displacement of range boundaries. Since the goal of preserving the components of vegetation biodiversity is to reduce the pressures caused by climate change, adaptation measures should be aimed at reducing the rate of fragmentation and degradation of pasture landscapes. Monitoring observations have shown that over the last 20-century period there have been rhythmically repeating changes in climate and soil and vegetation cover, which indicates high mobility of vegetation. It has been established that the contribution of anthropogenic land degradation to desertification is confirmed by a significant linear trend in interannual fluctuations in indicators of pasture digression in the region. It has been established that the contribution of anthropogenic land degradation to desertification is confirmed by a significant linear trend in interannual fluctuations in indicators of pasture digression in the region. Due to excessive pasture digression, “islands” of anthropogenic desertification are formed here, the lifespan of which is determined by human influence and precipitation fluctuations.

The future of warfare. Anticipated changes in military trends

Purpose: to discuss the changes in the scientific and technical field, and examine their impact on military art. Method: comparative analysis, and synthesis. Findings: Today's military and political realities require the Armed Forces to be ready for wars that may occur at any time, including in the future, in order to ensure the country's national security. Because, as in the past, the struggle for natural resources, competition between states, aspirations for hegemony, as well as ideological differences and security concerns, which lead to military conflicts, will continue in the future. At the same time, the great progress achieved and expected in the field of technology will significantly change the traditional forms and methods of fighting. The study and skillful application of these forms and methods in the Armed Forces will be one of the main conditions for success in future wars. Scientific and technical progress affects all areas of human activity without exception, and has a noticeable effect on the development of methods and forms of war. In the future, the content and typology of military operations, strategy and tactics, forms and methods of application of armed forces will be formed under the influence of scientific and technical progress, mainly in the fields of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. For this reason, in order to study the nature of future wars, to predict the methods and forms of military operations, the article considers the causes of wars, discusses the changes in the scientific and technical field, and examines their impact on military art. Theoretical implications: The paper enhances our understanding of significant transformations due to advancements in technology, changes in geopolitical dynamics, and evolving societal expectations, against the backdrop of the extensive use of autonomous systems, including drones, unmanned vehicles, and AI-powered decision-making tools. Practical implications: The paper contibutes to the development of military strategies and operational plans, which consider how technological, social, and geopolitical changes will concretely affect the future warfare. Value: The study offers significant value in understanding and predicting the nature and character of future warfare and provides multiple lenses through which to analyze the war and devise strategies in line with emerging security threats.

Research on Adhesion Pull-Off Behavior of Rigid Flat Punch and Viscoelastic Substrate

Interfacial adhesion is one of the key factors affecting the reliability of micro–nano systems. The adhesion contact mechanism is still unclear as the time-dependent viscoelasticity of soft materials. To clarify the adhesion interaction, the pull-off detachment between the rigid flat punch and viscoelastic substrate is explored considering the viscoelasticity of soft materials and rate-dependent adhesion. Taking the Lennard-Jones (L-J) potential characterizing interfacial adhesion and the Prony series defining the viscoelasticity of materials as references, the bilinear cohesion zone model (CZM) and standard Maxwell model are employed, and an adhesion analysis framework is established by combining finite element technology. The influence laws of the loading and unloading rates, material relaxation coefficients and size effect on adhesion pull-off behavior are revealed. The results show that the pull-off force is independent of the material relaxation effect and related to the unloading rate. When v^ ≥ 50 or v^ &lt; 0.01, the pull-off force has nothing to do with the unloading rate, but when 0.01 &lt; v^ &lt; 50, the pull-off force increases with the increasing unloading rate. Also, it is controlled by the size effect, and the changing trend conforms to the MD-n model proposed by Jiang. The energy required for interfacial separation (i.e., effective adhesion work) is a result of the comprehensive influence of unloading rates, material properties and the relaxation effect, which is consistent with Papangelo1’s research results. In addition, we derive the critical contact radius of the transition from the Kendall solution to the strength control solution. This work not only provides a detailed solution for the interfacial adhesion behavior but also provides guidance for the application of adhesion in Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMSs).

Assessing climatic change impacts on mangrove structural dynamics on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf

Abstract. Monitoring long-term trends in structural changes within mangrove ecosystems is essential for understanding their response to climate change and devising effective adaptation strategies in coastal regions. This study examines changes in mangrove patchiness within the Hara Biosphere Reserve (HBR) along the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) over a 31-year period (1986-2017), focusing on variations in rainfall patterns and drought occurrences. Employing a 35-year time series of monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values alongside satellite imagery analysis, trends in both the number of patches (NP) and the Largest Patch Index (LPI) were assessed at the mangrove stand level. The analysis reveals a significant correlation between structural changes in mangroves and drought events. Pre-1998, characterized by wetter conditions, witnessed a decrease in both NP and LPI, indicating patch expansion and habitat extension. Conversely, post-1998, during drought periods, both indices increased, indicating habitat degradation due to heightened drought intensity. Pre-1998 structural changes in the HBR signify habitat expansion, with increased patch extent and core areas reflecting enhanced structural integrity. However, post-1998, a concerning trend of habitat degradation emerged, with increased NP and LPI attributed to intensified droughts. These findings highlight a transitional period marked by favourable conditions for mangrove growth followed by habitat degradation linked to increased drought intensity. This underscores the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to climate change impacts, particularly exacerbated droughts, necessitating urgent efforts for conservation and management to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services in coastal regions.

The Determination of Factors for ICT Quality Assessment Model

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is a crucial asset in business processes and high ICT quality allows for highly efficient business processes. Measuring ICT quality is identified as a crucial step towards ensuring high-quality ICT service. Over the years several ICT assessment models have been developed and each year the factors of measurement are constantly updated. This is due to constant change in technology trends and the user requirements. Thus, any existing factors within models developed previously require review and update if necessary. Therefore, the most relevant factors for ICT assessment model are investigated in this study. Through literature review a set of updated factors are developed and expert review were used to validate the factors. Factors determined in this study are: Software System and Application, Computing Hardware, Network and Communication, Lifelong Learning organizational Governance, Ecosystem Support, Security and Official Recognition. The updated and validated factors shall help future researchers in developing a model to assess ICT compliancy for measuring readiness in providing quality ICT services.

One Year of Wastewater Surveillance in South Africa Supporting COVID-19 Clinical Findings Across Two Waves of Infection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been an important tool for the detection of COVID-19 outbreaks. The retrospective analysis of COVID-19 data is vital to understand the spread and impact of the virus as well as to inform future planning and response efforts. In this study, we evaluated the SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater from 21 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the City of Cape Town (South Africa) over a period of 12 months and compared the (inactive) SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in wastewater between wave 2 (November 2020 to January 2021) and wave 3 (June 2021 to September 2021). The SARS-CoV-2 RNA expression was quantified in wastewater using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) by targeting the nucleocapsid (N) gene, and the resultant signal was normalized to the WWTP design capacity and catchment size. Our findings show that the maximum SARS-CoV-2 RNA signal was significantly higher in wave 3 than in wave 2 (p &lt; 0.01). The duration of wave 3 (15 weeks) was longer than that of wave 2 (10 weeks), and the wastewater surveillance data supported the clinical findings, as evidenced by the two distinct waves. Furthermore, the data demonstrated the importance of long-term wastewater surveillance as a key indicator of changing trends.