Trends In Tuberculosis Incidence Research Articles

Forecasting the trend of tuberculosis incidence in Anhui Province based on machine learning optimization algorithm, 2013–2023

Tuberculosis has been one of the most common communicable diseases raising global concerns. Accurately predicting the incidence of Tuberculosis remains challenging. Here we constructed a time-series analysis and fusion tool using multi-source data, and aimed to more accurately predict the incidence trend of tuberculosis of Anhui Province from 2013 to 2023. Random forest algorithm (RF), Feature Recursive Elimination (RFE) and Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were implemented to improve the derivation of features related to infectious diseases and feature work. Based on the characteristics of infectious disease data, a model of RF-RFE-LASSO integrated particle swarm optimization multiple inputs long short term memory recurrent neural network (RRL-PSO-MiLSTM) was created to perform more accurate prediction. Results showed that the PSO-MiLSTM achieved excellent prediction results compared with common single-input and multi-input time-series models (test set MSE:42.3555, MAE: 59.3333, RMSE: 146.7237, MAPE: 2.1133, R2: 0.8634). PSO-MiLSTM enriches and complements the methodological research content of calibrating the time-series predictive analysis of infectious diseases using multi-source data, and can be used as a brand-new benchmark for the analysis of influencing factors and trend prediction of infectious diseases at the public health level in the future, as well as providing a reference for incidence rate prediction of infectious diseases.

Trends of tuberculosis incidence among medical workers in the Vinnytsіa region

Trends of tuberculosis incidence among medical workers in the Vinnytsіa region

IJCM_286A: Will India able to bend the curve? TB Elimination in India by 2025

Background: Tuberculosis in India is a major public health problem. The National Strategic Plan 2017-2025 aims to achieve a rapid decline in burden of TB, morbidity and mortality while working towards elimination of TB in India by 2025. By proper care and treatment of TB patients, the battle against TB can be won. In the current scenario, forecasting of Tuberculosis incidence and annual case notification rate could help policy makers in planning an effective intervention at the right time keeping in mind the target for TB elimination. Objectives: 1) To study the trend of Tuberculosis in India. 2) To forecast the incidence and annual case notification rate due to Tuberculosis in India for next 3 years. Methodology: Data regarding the incidence and annual case notification rate were collected from the annual reports of Tuberculosis published by Central TB Division, Government of India. Data from the sources were collected in a data extraction sheet and entered in MS excel. Gretl software was used for data analysis. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method was used to select the best fitted model for available time series data and using the selected model incidence and annual case notification rate were forecasted for next 3 years. Results: The study showed an upward trend in incidence and annual case notification rate in the sampling and post sampling period. According to the forecast, for the year 2025 the incidence of Tuberculosis will be 28.36 lakhs (95%CI- 26.4886, 32.8556) and annual case notification rate will be 178 (95%CI- 144, 211). Conclusion: There is an upward trend of Tuberculosis incidence and annual case notification rate in India in forecasted period. To achieve the set targets, the policy makers need to plan and implement more effective interventions at the right time.

Global, regional and national trends in tuberculosis incidence and main risk factors: a study using data from 2000 to 2021

BackgroundDespite the significant progress over the years, Tuberculosis remains a major public health concern and a danger to global health. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the incidence of tuberculosis and its risk factors and to predict future trends in the incidence of Tuberculosis.MethodsThis study used secondary data on tuberculosis incidence and tuberculosis risk factor data from 209 countries and regions worldwide between 2000 and 2021 for analysis. Specifically, this study analyses the spatial autocorrelation of Tuberculosis incidence from 2000 to 2021 by calculating Moran’s I and identified risk factors for Tuberculosis incidence by multiple stepwise linear regression analysis. We also used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to predict the trend of Tuberculosis incidence to 2030. This study used ArcGIS Pro, Geoda and R studio 4.2.2 for analysis.ResultsThe study found the global incidence of Tuberculosis and its spatial autocorrelation trends from 2000 to 2021 showed a general downward trend, but its spatial autocorrelation trends remained significant (Moran’s I = 0.465, P < 0.001). The risk factors for Tuberculosis incidence are also geographically specific. Low literacy rate was identified as the most pervasive and profound risk factor for Tuberculosis.ConclusionsThis study shows the global spatial and temporal status of Tuberculosis incidence and risk factors. Although the incidence of Tuberculosis and Moran’s Index of Tuberculosis are both declining, there are still differences in Tuberculosis risk factors across countries and regions. Even though literacy rate is the leading risk factor affecting the largest number of countries and regions, there are still many countries and regions where gender (male) is the leading risk factor. In addition, at the current rate of decline in Tuberculosis incidence, the World Health Organization’s goal of ending the Tuberculosis pandemic by 2030 will be difficult to achieve. Targeted preventive interventions, such as health education and regular screening of Tuberculosis-prone populations are needed if we are to achieve the goal. The results of this study will help policymakers to identify high-risk groups based on differences in TB risk factors in different areas, rationalize the allocation of healthcare resources, and provide timely health education, so as to formulate more effective Tuberculosis prevention and control policies.

Tuberculosis Prevalence Trends from a Predictive Modelling Study - 10 High-Burden Countries, 1980-2035.

Given the challenges presented by drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis (TB) and the rising mobility of the population, achieving the objective of eradicating TB appears uncertain. The examination of TB incidence trends in 10 high-burden countries (HBCs) indicated a steady rise in cases, with India and China jointly accounting for nearly 70% of the burden. Projections for the future show diverse trajectories in these countries, with potential difficulties in reaching the TB elimination target, especially in Nigeria, Congo, and South Africa. The number of TB cases is on the rise. It is crucial to learn from successful strategies to improve TB prevention and control worldwide through collaborative efforts.

Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points.

To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis. The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of -1.9% (95% CI [-3.4, -0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of -0.4% (95% CI [-1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (-3.5%; 95% CI [-5.0, -1.9]). During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.

Epidemiological features and temporal trends of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden from 1990 to 2019: a retrospective analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

ObjectiveThis study aimed to analyse the burden and temporal trends of tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality globally, as well as the association between mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).DesignA...

The burden of tuberculosis among adolescents and young adults in five Asian countries from 1990 to 2019

BackgroundPrevious studies have shown that the risk of tuberculosis (TB) increases dramatically during adolescence. The objective of this article was to analyze the burdens and trends of TB incidence and mortality rates in Asian adolescents and young adults.MethodsTime series ecological study of TB incidence and mortality rates of adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2019, using data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease website for 5 Asian countries. The annual percentage change was calculated by joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR).ResultsThe highest ASIR per 100,000 person-years in 2019 was in Mongolia [74 (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 51 to 105)], while the lowest was in Japan [4 (95% UI, 2 to 6)]. The highest ASDR per 100,000 person-years was in Mongolia [2 (95% UI, 1 to 3)], while the lowest was in Japan [0.009 (95% UI, 0.008 to 0.010)]. As the absolute number of cases and deaths decreased from 1990 to 2019, the ASIRs and ASDRs in all five countries also decreased.ConclusionsOur finding revealed that although all five countries in Asia experienced descending TB incidence and mortality trend in past three decades, the trends were especially significant in developed countries and varied across geographic regions. This study may be crucial in helping policymakers make decisions and allocate appropriate resources to adolescent TB control strategies.

Varied trends of tuberculosis and HIV dual epidemics among different countries during 2000–2020: lessons from an ecological time-trend study of 9 countries

Background While Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection is a well-established risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), the effect of HIV infection on TB incidence varies across countries given differences in local epidemiological factors and disparate progress with respect to TB elimination goals. Methods In this descriptive epidemiological study, we explored the country-specific associations between HIV prevalence and TB incidence in nine countries representing four WHO regions using data between 2000 and 2020. For each of these countries, we (1) described the trends of TB incidence and HIV prevalence, and (2) examined country-level associations between TB incidence and HIV prevalence, using negative binomial regression. Results The trends of TB incidence and HIV prevalence, and the country-level associations, varied across the study countries. Angola, Thailand and Zimbabwe showed parallel TB incidence and HIV prevalence trends while the two trends diverged in Brazil, Liberia and Indonesia during the study period. Additionally, the strength of association between HIV prevalence and TB incidence varied widely between countries, with the risk ratio ranging from 0.42 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.49) in Indonesia to 2.78 (95% CI: 2.57, 3.02) in Thailand. Conclusions The association of HIV infection with TB incidence varied across high burden settings, suggesting that HIV is not a ubiquitous driver of TB incidence. Without acknowledging the local drivers of TB epidemics across countries, the END TB Strategy cannot be adapted at the country level. The findings from this analysis can inform the design of future studies to identify country-specific drivers of TB using individual-level data.

Geographical evolutionary pathway of global tuberculosis incidence trends

BackgroundsTuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health and human development problem, especially in developing countries. Despite the effectiveness of directly observed therapy, short course programs in reducing transmission and progression of TB, poverty reduction and socioeconomic development remain crucial factors in decreasing TB incidence. However, the geographical pathway on the planet is not yet clear.ObjectivesThis study was to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB in 173 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 to analyze the socioeconomic determinants that impact the global TB epidemic. In addition, the TB incidence in 2030 was predicted.MethodsThis study analyses TB incidence data from 173 countries and territories between 2010 and 2019. The Geotree model would be used to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB, which provides a simplified schema for geo-visualizing the trajectories of TB incidence and their socioeconomic drivers. Additionally, to estimate the future TB incidence in 2030, a multilevel model was utilized in conjunction with the hierarchical nature of the Geotree based on a stratified heterogeneity analysis.ResultsGlobal TB incidence was found to be associated with the country type and development stages. Between 2010 and 2019, the average TB incidence rate in 173 countries and territories was -27.48%, with marked spatially stratified heterogeneity by country type and development stage. Low-income and lower-middle-income countries were most vulnerable to TB. Upper-middle-income countries experienced a faster decline in TB incidence than high-income countries, and TB incidence generally decreased as the development stage increased, except for the lower-middle development stage in 2019.The highest average rate of decline in TB incidence was observed in the upper-middle development stage of high-income countries, with a reduction of 45.24%. Meanwhile, 37 high-income countries in the high development stage demonstrated an average rate of change of -13.93%. Socioeconomic determinants, including gross domestic product per capita, urbanization rate, and sociodemographic index, were found to inhibit TB incidence. Based on current trends, the predicted average global TB incidence in 2030 is 91.581 per 100,000 population.ConclusionsThe trajectories of the global TB incidence have been reconstructed to formulate targeted public health responses. To eliminate TB, countries at similar development stage can draw on the experiences of countries at higher development stages that are tailored to their unique characteristics. By learning from successful TB control strategies, countries can take strategic steps toward eradicating TB and improving public health outcomes.

Limited effect of reducing pulmonary tuberculosis incidence amid mandatory facial masking for COVID-19

Although the incidence and mortality rates associated with tuberculosis (TB) have been decreasing in many countries, TB remains a major public health concern. Obligatory facial masking and reduced health-care capacity because of COVID-19 may substantially influence TB transmission and care. The Global Tuberculosis Report 2021 published by the World Health Organization indicated a TB rebound at the end of 2020, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic. We explored this rebound phenomenon in Taiwan by investigating whether TB incidence and mortality are affected by COVID-19 because of their common route of transmission. In addition, we investigated whether the incidence of TB varies across regions with different incidences of COVID-19. Data (2010–2021) regarding annual new cases of TB and multidrug-resistant TB were collected from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. TB incidence and mortality were assessed in Taiwan’s seven administrative regions. Over the last decade, TB incidence decreased continually, even during 2020 and 2021, the years coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, TB incidence remained high in regions with low COVID-19 incidence. However, the overall decreasing trends of TB incidence and mortality remained unchanged during the pandemic. Facial masking and social distancing may prevent COVID-19 transmission but exhibit limited efficacy in reducing TB transmission. Thus, during health-related policymaking, policymakers must consider TB rebound, even in the post-COVID-19 era.

Tuberculosis epidemiological trend in Sousse, Tunisia during twenty years (2000–2019)

ABSTRACT Describe the epidemiology of tuberculosis in the last two decades (2000–2019) in the East region of Tunisia (city of Sousse). This was a descriptive retrospective analysis of notified incident cases of tuberculosis from 2000 to 2019 in Sousse Governorate, Tunisia. The data collection was done via the regional registry of tuberculosis. Stata software was used to characterize the socio-demographic and clinical profile of tuberculosis, to calculate its incidence, mortality and fatality rates and to determine predictive factors of mortality. R software was used to analyze the chronological trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality. A total of 2606 incident cases of tuberculosis were declared from 2000 to 2019 in Sousse. The mean age was 39 ± 19 years with a sex ratio (male/female) of 1.19. Only one case was HIV positive among the total 2606 incident cases. Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis was the most recorded (1,534 cases, 58.9%). The mean annual case notification and deaths were 130 and four respectively. After adjusting for confounders, individuals with pulmonary tuberculosis were 1.9 significantly more likely to die from tuberculosis compared to those suffering from extra-pulmonary tuberculosis. There was a trend of increasing mortality with increasing age. The association was statistically significant only for those above 60 years’ old who had 12.5 times higher odds of dying compared to those below 60 years. After adjusting for age and gender, with every year there was an increase in the total incidence rate (+0.35 per 100,000) with p = 0.005 and in the extra-pulmonary incidence (+0.27 per 100,000), with p = 0.001. This study demonstrated the increasing trend of tuberculosis in Sousse, Tunisia from 2000 to 2019. The national program against tuberculosis should enhance community knowledge and centralize the national and regional epidemiological information for better epidemiological surveillance.

A phenomenological approach to predicting tuberculosis cases with an assessment of measurement errors

BackgroundMeasurement errors produce bias and uncertainty. They affect the outcomes of data-fitted models. Unfortunately, tuberculosis incidence data providers do not appear to be interested in this topic. MethodWe use a phenomenological approach to describe and forecast tuberculosis incidence numbers in the US, and England and Wales as a function of time. We use a heuristic method to evaluate if the lack of fit of our descriptive models to the data could be explained by measurement errors. FindingsWe find that if the lack of fit of our proposed models to the data is due to measurement errors, these are not so large as to make the models useless. We find numerical regularities that provide trustworthy tools to make a description and forecast the tuberculosis incidence trends. InterpretationMeasurement errors of epidemiological data collected "in the field" are probably large and could justify the lack of fit of an epidemic model to the data. Thus, to choose an appropriate model to describe an epidemic, we propose to assess the magnitude of measurement errors and apply the epidemic theory.

The burden of COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis detection: a single-center study

BackgroundSince being declared a global pandemic, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) took over healthcare providers and researchers’ interest. However, other epidemic diseases, including tuberculosis (TB), are still a health issue that aggravate under the umbrella of health facilities exhaustion. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis management.MethodsA retrospective analysis of the quarterly reports issued by a tuberculosis management unit from 2017 to June 2021, including data of 12 subunits. The changes in pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis incidence trends (new + relapsed cases) throughout the 4 years were reported. The quarterly changed percentages in cases numbers along 2020 and first half of 2021 was compared with that of the same periods in 2019.ResultsIncidence of extrapulmonary tuberculosis was higher than pulmonary tuberculosis throughout the 4 year study periods (7.69 vs. 4.49, 9.44 vs. 4.33, 7.75 vs. 3.58, and 7.82 vs. 2.94/100.000 population, respectively) with a noticeable decline in the incidence of pulmonary TB during 2020. The second quarter of 2020 showed the lowest tuberculosis incidence rate with a 41.6% decline in the total number of diagnosed cases while 2nd quarter of 2021 showed 21.2% decline. During 2020, only 4 cases of multidrug-resistant TB were reported (compared to an average of 8 cases of MDR-TB yearly before the COVID-19 era).ConclusionThere was a noticeable drop in tuberculosis case detection during the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown, started in Egypt by the end of March 2020, could contribute to the marked drop in the second quarter. However, a steady partial decline was continued during the first half of 2021, which foretells a growing problem.

Predictors of tuberculosis incidence and the effects of multiple deprivation indices on tuberculosis management in OR Tambo district over a 5-year period.

BackgroundThis study investigated the associations between socio-economic deprivation and tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes, alongside well-known TB risk factors. The effects of healthcare expenditures and their growth on trends in TB incidence from 2009 to 2013 were also assessed.MethodsSecondary data analysis was performed on data obtained from various sources including governmental, non-governmental and research institutions. Indicators for TB treatment outcomes included TB death rate, TB rate among the household contacts of the Index TB cases, TB treatment failure, HIV associated TB death rate, TB defaulter rate, and new TB smear positive cases. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Turkey’s tests for post-hoc analysis were used to compare means of variables of interest considering a type I error rate of 0.05. Regression models and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) were used to explore the associations between trends in TB incidence and independent TB predictors. During CDA, Fischer’s linear functions, Eigen values, and Mahalanobis distances were determined with values of Wilk’s Lambda closer to zero being the evidence for well discriminated patient groups. Data analysis was performed using SPSS® statistical software version 23.0 (Chicago, IL).ResultsIn total, 62 400 records of TB notification were analyzed for the period 2009–2013. The average TB incidence rate over a 5-year period was 298 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The incidence of TB was reduced by 79.70% at the end of the evaluation as compared to the baseline data in 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the Expenditure per patient day equivalent (PDE) and PHC expenditure per capita were significantly and independently associated with the decline of TB incidence (adjusted R2 = 60%; ρ = 0.002) following the equation: Y = (- 209× Expenditure per PDE) + (- 0.191 × PHC expenditure per capita). CDA showed that in the most socio-economically deprived communities (quintile 1), HIV associated TB death rates were significantly more likely to be higher as compared to the least socio-economically deprived group (quintile 5) [Eigen value (12.95), function coefficient (1.49) > (.77); Wilk’s Lambda = .019, p < .0001].ConclusionsAlthough TB control programs in OR Tambo district have averted thousands of TB incident cases, their effects on HIV associated TB deaths among the most deprived communities remain insignificant. There is an urgent need for strengthening integration of TB/HIV services in most deprived settings.

Changing Epidemiology of TB in Shandong, China Driven by Demographic Changes.

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence has been in steady decline in China over the last few decades. However, ongoing demographic transition, fueled by aging, and massive internal migration could have important implications for TB control in the future. We collated data on TB notification, demography, and drug resistance between 2004 and 2017 across seven cities in Shandong, the second most populous province in China. Using these data, and age-period-cohort models, we (i) quantified heterogeneities in TB incidence across cities, by age, sex, resident status, and occupation and (ii) projected future trends in TB incidence, including drug-resistant TB (DR-TB). Between 2006 and 2017, we observed (i) substantial variability in the rates of annual change in TB incidence across cities, from -4.84 to 1.52%; (ii) heterogeneities in the increments in the proportion of patients over 60 among reported TB cases differs from 2 to 13%, and from 0 to 17% for women; (iii) huge differences across cities in the annual growths in TB notification rates among migrant population between 2007 and 2017, from 2.81 cases per 100K migrants per year in Jinan to 22.11 cases per 100K migrants per year in Liaocheng, with drastically increasing burden of TB cases from farmers; and (iv) moderate and stable increase in the notification rates of DR-TB in the province. All of these trends were projected to continue over the next decade, increasing heterogeneities in TB incidence across cities and between populations. To sustain declines in TB incidence and to prevent an increase in Multiple DR-TB (MDR-TB) in the future in China, future TB control strategies may (i) need to be tailored to local demography, (ii) prioritize key populations, such as elderly and internal migrants, and (iii) enhance DR-TB surveillance.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá.

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE:To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá.METHODS:Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk.RESULTS:A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season – called amazon winter season –, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics.CONCLUSION:The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

Tuberculosis in areas and countries along the China–Proposed Belt and Road Initiative

To assess the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic and incidence trends in areas and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, we analyzed the prevalence, diagnosis, and treatment of tuberculosis through consulting the data of the World Health Organization’s Global Tuberculosis Report. We estimated the tuberculosis incidence trends in these countries using joinpoint regression. Among the 65 countries along the route, in addition to Palestine with no relevant data, the incidence rate was 181.5 per 100,000, and the mortality rate was 23.1 per 100,000 in 2018. Both the incidence rates in 26 countries and the mortalities in 32 countries were higher than in China. Among the regions, the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis were the highest in South Asia, East Asia, and The Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) countries, while the tuberculosis detection rate and positive bacteriological rate were the lowest in East Asia and ASEAN countries. Average yearly incidence decreased from 235.7 per 100,000 in 2004 to 181.5 per 100,000 in 2018 (average annual percentage change 1.9%) in these countries. Although TB incidence of most countries along the Belt and Road Initiative was declining, the rate of decrease was not yet fast enough. Therefore, it is essential to establish the exchange and cooperation mechanism of TB prevention and control experience among different countries, strengthen information communication and sharing, and explore a cross-border notification system. In addition, TB detection of international travelers should be carried out and improved.

Long-term trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in four central African countries

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the knowledge about the current patterns is valuable for policymaking to decrease the TB burden. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we used a Joinpoint regression analysis to examine the variations in the trends of TB incidence and mortality, and the age-period-cohort statistical model to evaluate their risks associated with age, period, and cohort in males and females from Cameroon (CAM), Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In the four countries, TB incidence and mortality rates displayed decreasing trends in men and women; except for the males from DRC that recorded an almost steady pattern in the trend of TB incidence between 1990 and 2019. TB incidence and mortality rates decreased according to the overall annual percentage changes over the adjusted age category in men and women of the four countries, and CAM registered the highest decrease. Although TB incidence and mortality rates increased with age between 1990 and 2019, the male gender was mainly associated with the upward behaviors of TB incidence rates, and the female gender association was with the upward behaviors of TB mortality rates. Males and females aged between 15–54 and 15–49 years old were evaluated as the population at high risks of TB incidence and mortality respectively in CAM, CAR, Chad, and DRC. The period and cohort relative risks (RRs) both declined in men and women of the four countries although there were some upward behaviors in their trends. Relatively to the period and cohort RRs, females and males from CAM recorded the most significant decrease compared to the rest of the countries. New public health approaches and policies towards young adults and adults, and a particular focus on elderlies’ health and life conditions should be adopted in CAM, CAR, DRC, and Chad to rapidly decrease TB incidence and mortality in both genders of the four countries.

Tuberculosis in Australia's tropical north: a population-based genomic epidemiological study.

BackgroundThe Northern Territory (NT) has the highest tuberculosis (TB) rate of all Australian jurisdictions. We combined TB public health surveillance data with genomic sequencing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates in the tropical ‘Top End’ of the NT to investigate trends in TB incidence and transmission.MethodsThis retrospective observational study included all 741 culture-confirmed cases of TB in the Top End over three decades from 1989–2020. All 497 available M. tuberculosis isolates were sequenced. We used contact tracing data to define a threshold pairwise SNP distance for hierarchical single linkage clustering, and examined putative transmission clusters in the context of epidemiologic information.FindingsThere were 359 (48%) cases born overseas, 329 (44%) cases among Australian First Nations peoples, and 52 (7%) cases were Australian-born and non-Indigenous. The annual incidence in First Nations peoples from 1989-2019 fell from average 50.4 to 11.0 per 100,000 (P<0·001). First Nations cases were more likely to die from TB (41/329, 12·5%) than overseas-born cases (11/359, 3·1%; P<0·001). Using a threshold of ≤12 SNPs, 28 clusters of between 2–64 individuals were identified, totalling 250 cases; 214 (86%) were First Nations cases and 189 (76%) were from a remote region. The time between cases and past epidemiologically- and genomically-linked contacts ranged from 4·5 months to 24 years.InterpretationOur findings support prioritisation of timely case detection, contact tracing augmented by genomic sequencing, and latent TB treatment to break transmission chains in Top End remote hotspot regions.