Phenological Trends Research Articles

Forest wildflowers bloom earlier as Europe warms: lessons from herbaria and spatial modelling.

Today plants often flower earlier due to climate warming. Herbarium specimens are excellent witnesses of such long-term changes. However, the magnitude of phenological shifts may vary geographically, and the data are often clustered. Therefore, large-scale analyses of herbarium data are prone to pseudoreplication and geographical biases. We studied over 6000 herbarium specimens of 20 spring-flowering forest understory herbs from Europe to understand how their phenology had changed during the last century. We estimated phenology trends with or without taking spatial autocorrelation into account. On average plants now flowered over 6 d earlier than at the beginning of the last century. These changes were strongly associated with warmer spring temperatures. Flowering time advanced 3.6 d per 1°C warming. Spatial modelling showed that, in some parts of Europe, plants flowered earlier or later than expected. Without accounting for this, the estimates of phenological shifts were biased and model fits were poor. Our study indicates that forest wildflowers in Europe strongly advanced their phenology in response to climate change. However, these phenological shifts differ geographically. This shows that it is crucial to combine the analysis of herbarium data with spatial modelling when testing for long-term phenology trends across large spatial scales.

Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies.

Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity—but not phenological trends—predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species’ abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.

Evaluating the impact of intra-seasonal change in temperature and solar radiation on phenology and yield of rice using CERES-rice model in Punjab

Rice is a staple food of global as well as Indian population and its productivity is vulnerable to climate change. Keeping in view the observed trends in climate variability, phenology and yield of rice were simulated using CERES-Rice model under climatic scenarios of changes in temperature (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, +2.0, +2.5, +3.0 °C from normal) and solar radiation (+2.5, +5.0, +10.0, +12.5, +15.0, +20.0% from normal) and their combined interactive effects during differential growth periods, i.e., whole season, vegetative phase, grain filling phase, 0-30 days after transplanting (DAT), 30-60 DAT, 60-90 DAT. In general, with a rise in temperature from normal, the CERES-Rice model predicted advancement in phenological development in rice and vice versa. In general, the increase in yield of rice cultivars for different transplanting dates was observed with decrease in temperature and increase in radiation and vice-versa. With rise in temperature from normal, CERES-Rice model showed maximum decrease in grain yield of rice during whole season change followed by grain filling phase change and vegetative phase change in decreasing order. Among the growth periods, maximum decrease in yield was observed in 0-30 DAT (early vegetative) followed by 30-60 DAT (late vegetative) and 60-90 DAT (grain filling) in decreasing order. Under the conditions of heat and radiative stress, grain filling phase and early vegetative phase was more vulnerable. The CERES-Rice model predictions showed that rice cv. PR-118 (long duration cultivar) was more tolerant to heat and radiative stress than cv. PR-115 (short duration cultivar) and hence may be recommended for cultivation due to its tolerant traits towards maintaining its good grain yield and harvest index.

Climate warming changes synchrony of plants and pollinators.

Climate warming changes the phenology of many species. When interacting organisms respond differently, climate change may disrupt their interactions and affect the stability of ecosystems. Here, we used global biodiversity facility occurrence records to examine phenology trends in plants and their associated insect pollinators in Germany since the 1980s. We found strong phenological advances in plants but differences in the extent of shifts among pollinator groups. The temporal trends in plant and insect phenologies were generally associated with interannual temperature variation and thus probably driven by climate change. When examining the synchrony of species-level plant-pollinator interactions, their temporal trends differed among pollinator groups. Overall, plant-pollinator interactions become more synchronized, mainly because the phenology of plants, which historically lagged behind that of the pollinators, responded more strongly to climate change. However, if the observed trends continue, many interactions may become more asynchronous again in the future. Our study suggests that climate change affects the phenologies of both plants and insects and that it also influences the synchrony of plant-pollinator interactions.

Influence of Climate Change on Metabolism and Biological Characteristics in Perennial Woody Fruit Crops in the Mediterranean Environment

The changes in the state of the climate have a high impact on perennial fruit crops thus threatening food availability. Indeed, climatic factors affect several plant aspects, such as phenological stages, physiological processes, disease-pest frequency, yield, and qualitative composition of the plant tissues and derived products. To mitigate the effects of climatic parameters variability, plants implement several strategies of defense, by changing phenological trends, altering physiology, increasing carbon sequestration, and metabolites synthesis. This review was divided into two sections. The first provides data on climate change in the last years and a general consideration on their impact, mitigation, and resilience in the production of food crops. The second section reviews the consequences of climate change on the industry of two woody fruit crops models (evergreen and deciduous trees). The research focused on, citrus, olive, and loquat as evergreen trees examples; while grape, apple, pear, cherry, apricot, almond, peach, kiwi, fig, and persimmon as deciduous species. Perennial fruit crops originated by a complex of decisions valuable in a long period and involving economic and technical problems that farmers may quickly change in the case of annual crops. However, the low flexibility of woody crops is balanced by resilience in the long-life cycle.

Rescue data as an alternative for assessing trends and phenological changes in two invasive parakeet species

Monitoring population trends of alien species is pivotal to design effective management plans to preserve native biodiversity, particularly urban areas, where most populations of alien birds are established. Urban wildlife rescue centers, with personnel trained to record species, age and sex of each individual brought by the public, may represent a reliable citizen-science based method to estimate both local changes in alien species phenology and population trends. In this work, we analysed records of monk and ring-necked parakeets by comparing rescue records in the urban area of Rome from the last 15 years. We also tested whether breeding phenology of alien parakeets showed any changes since the start of the invasion processes.We recorded a strong correlation between the number of rescued parakeets and their population trends, thus confirming the importance of wildlife rescue centers in monitoring populations of alien species in urban areas. We also observed a shift in the breeding phenology of these parakeet species. The hatching peak for ring-necked parakeet occurred in early spring, in line with previous studies on the reproduction of this species, but with a slight increase in the number of months with evidence of breeding in the last years. As to the monk parakeet, our findings support the expansion of its reproductive season between 2006 and 2020 in Rome, with chicks currently being observed for seven months a year. Therefore, data collected through wildlife rescue centers may help improving models of population growth of alien species established in urban areas.

Microclimate-driven trends in spring-emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential "climate trap"?

Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to which climate change has altered cue reliability remains unclear. Here, we examined the risk of a “climate trap”—a climatically driven desynchronization of the cues that determine life cycle events and fitness later in the season in a temperate reptile, the European adder (Vipera berus). During the winter, adders hibernate underground, buffered against subzero temperatures, and re‐emerge in the spring to reproduce. We derived annual spring‐emergence trends between 1983 and 2017 from historical observations in Cornwall, UK, and related these trends to the microclimatic conditions that adders experienced. Using a mechanistic microclimate model, we computed below‐ and near‐ground temperatures to derive accumulated degree‐hour and absolute temperature thresholds that predicted annual spring‐emergence timing. Trends in annual‐emergence timing and subsequent exposure to ground frost were then quantified. We found that adders have advanced their phenology toward earlier emergence. Earlier emergence was associated with increased exposure to ground frost and, contradicting the expected effects of macroclimate warming, increased post‐emergence exposure to ground frost at some locations. The susceptibility of adders to this “climate trap” was related to the rate at which frost risk diminishes relative to advancement in phenology, which depends on the seasonality of climate. We emphasize the need to consider exposure to changing microclimatic conditions when forecasting biological impacts of climate change.

Phytoplankton Succession Phenology Trends in the Backwaters of the Three Gorges Reservoir and Their Drivers: Results from Satellite Observations

Phytoplankton Succession Phenology Trends in the Backwaters of the Three Gorges Reservoir and Their Drivers: Results from Satellite Observations

PHENOLOGICAL TRENDS IN THE CALIFORNIA POPPY (ESCHSCHOLZIA CALIFORNICA): DIGITIZED HERBARIUM SPECIMENS REVEAL INTRASPECIFIC VARIATION IN THE SENSITIVITY OF FLOWERING DATE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Herbarium specimens provide a critical source of phenological data that can be used to identify the direct and indirect drivers of variation in flowering date within and among species. Specimen-based phenological research in California has been accelerated by digitization efforts such as the California Phenology Network, which has scored and archived the phenological status of over 1.4 million specimens to date. Using this new data source in the Consortium of California Herbaria's CCH2 data portal, we obtained data from 993 specimens of the iconic California Poppy, Eschscholzia californica Cham., along with climate data representing all collection sites. Our goal was to determine how long-term and interannual climate variation affect flowering dates, and whether the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to climate varies across the species' range. We found that specimens collected from chronically warm or dry sites flowered relatively early, and flowering date was more sensitive to long-term mean temperature than to long-term mean precipitation. Independent of these effects of long-term conditions, flowering date in E. californica was sensitive to interannual variation in seasonal precipitation, but the direction of this effect depended on the season in which the precipitation occurred. Specimens sampled from sites experiencing warmer-than-average springs in the year of collection flowered 2.7–3.3 days earlier for every 1°C increase in spring temperature relative to long-term mean spring temperature. The magnitude of these effects, however, varied across the range of E. californica, with greater sensitivity to temperature in relatively cooler regions and no discernible sensitivity in relatively warm regions. Consistently, California Poppies exhibited significant phenological advancement over the last 120 years, but this advancement was restricted to the cooler portions of its range. Our results provide one of the first accounts of intraspecific variation in both phenological sensitivity to climate and the magnitude of phenological shifts over time, and demonstrate that, for a single species, location- or population-specific estimates of phenological sensitivity or of temporal trends in phenology might not accurately predict phenological responses to climate change in other locations throughout its range. In this study, we highlight the utility and promise of herbarium specimens for addressing novel questions about the phenological responses of plants to climate trends.

DOMINANT SONORAN DESERT PLANT SPECIES HAVE DIVERGENT PHENOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

The southwestern U.S. is a global hotspot of climate change. Models project that temperatures will continue to rise through the end of the 21st century, accompanied by significant changes to the hydrological cycle. Within the Sonoran Desert, a limited number of studies have documented climate change impacts on the phenology of native plant species. Much of this phenological work to understand climate change impacts to phenology builds on research conducted nearly three decades ago to define flowering triggers and developmental requirements for native keystone Sonoran Desert woody species. Here we expand on the drivers and explore recent phenological trends for six species using a unique 36-year observational data set. We use statistical models to determine which aspects of climate influence the probability of flowering, and how flowering time may respond to climate change. We move beyond traditional models of phenology by incorporating different metrics of moisture availability in addition to temperature, weather, and climate at several time scales, including daily, weekly, seasonal, and antecedent conditions. Our results provide evidence of a trend towards earlier flowering (on the order of 1–4 days per decade) for five of the six species analyzed, and no trend for one species. The species we evaluated had contrasting phenological responses to different aspects of climate, suggesting individualistic changes in phenology and the potential of divergent plant community flowering patterns under future climate change. Understanding recent changes in flowering phenology and their climatic triggers is important to anticipating whether plant species can attract pollinators, reproduce, and persist within the community under continued climate change.

Temporal trends in abundance and phenology of migratory birds across the Italian Alps during a 20-year period

Introduction: Bird migration across mountainous regions has been studied usually at single sites due to the difficulty in employing and support a multi-site sampling effort. This may affect inference on migration whose scale is larger that a single site. The Progetto Alpi has been monitoring post-breeding bird migration through the Italian Alps with a network of several ringing stations since 1997. Until 2017, 666,471 ringing data of 191 different species were collected. Methods: Phenology of bird migration in terms of date of capture and the related elevational distribution during the sampling season (August-November) were analysed for 69 species. For a subset of 45 species the inter-annual variation in phenology along with trends in the number of ringed birds and in the ratio between the number of juveniles and adults ringed, were also analysed. Results: Migration through the Italian Alps occurred differently between species, with heterogeneity across species in the median date of capture and their elevational distribution. No linear trends in phenology were detected. For four species an annual linear increase of the ringed individuals was detected, while for other four species an annual linear decrease of the captures was detected. For two species, an increase of the ratio between the number of the juveniles and the number of adults ringed was detected. Conclusions: The long-term standardized monitoring of post-breeding migration allowed us to consolidate and increase knowledge of bird migration through Italian southern Alps. The information gathered allowed us to define the temporal and elevation distribution of passerine birds crossing the mountainous area, and to test interannual trends in the number of captures. The main purpose of this work was to report on the information collected in twenty years of field activity, providing a contribution to the understanding this complex phenomenon. Further investigations and more in-depth analyses are necessary to understand how environmental factors and species-specific eco-physiological traits interact and affect migratory strategies of passerine birds in the Italian Alpine region.

Climate Warming Increased Spring Leaf-Out Variation Across Temperate Trees in China

Leaf-out phenology plays a key role in ecosystem structure and functioning. Phenological changes have often been linked to climatic factors and have received considerable attention, with most studies focusing on trends of leaf-out phenology. Leaf-out variation (LOV), which reflects the stability of phenological responses, may also be affected by climate change, yet this has received less scientific attention. In this study, we examined spring LOV in response to climate change in China during the period 1963–2008 using in situ records of 15 species at 25 phenological observation sites across several climate zones and explored spatiotemporal changes of LOV and the underlying mechanisms. We observed a significant decrease of LOV toward higher latitudes (−0.2 ± 0.1 days⋅°N–1;P < 0.001) across all species. Temporally, we found that the LOV was significantly increased from the period 1963–1986 (6.9 ± 2.8 days) to the period 1987–2008 (7.9 ± 3.7 days, P < 0.05). Furthermore, the LOV changes between 1987–2008 and 1963–1986 were significantly smaller at high latitudes (average decrease of 1.0 day) than at low latitudes (average increase of 1.5 days). The spatial pattern of LOV is likely due to both increased heat requirements and greater temperature sensitivity at low latitudes compared with high latitudes. The temporal pattern of LOV is likely related to increased heat requirements for leaf-out during 1987–2008 when the average air temperature was higher. Our analysis indicated that the phenology response to climate change is reflected not only in the temporal trends for long time series but also in the variation of phenological dates. Results from this study improve our understanding of phenological responses to climate change and could be applied in the assessment of regional phenology changes to evaluate better the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function.

Assessing the Effects of Time Interpolation of NDVI Composites on Phenology Trend Estimation

The accurate evaluation of shifts in vegetation phenology is essential for understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Remote-sensing vegetation index (VI) products with multi-day scales have been widely used for phenology trend estimation. VI composites should be interpolated into a daily scale for extracting phenological metrics, which may not fully capture daily vegetation growth, and how this process affects phenology trend estimation remains unclear. In this study, we chose 120 sites over four vegetation types in the mid-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, and then a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD43A4 daily surface reflectance data was used to generate a daily normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset in addition to an 8-day and a 16-day NDVI composite datasets from 2001 to 2019. Five different time interpolation methods (piecewise logistic function, asymmetric Gaussian function, polynomial curve function, linear interpolation, and spline interpolation) and three phenology extraction methods were applied to extract data from the start of the growing season and the end of the growing season. We compared the trends estimated from daily NDVI data with those from NDVI composites among (1) different interpolation methods; (2) different vegetation types; and (3) different combinations of time interpolation methods and phenology extraction methods. We also analyzed the differences between the trends estimated from the 8-day and 16-day composite datasets. Our results indicated that none of the interpolation methods had significant effects on trend estimation over all sites, but the discrepancies caused by time interpolation could not be ignored. Among vegetation types with apparent seasonal changes such as deciduous broadleaf forest, time interpolation had significant effects on phenology trend estimation but almost had no significant effects among vegetation types with weak seasonal changes such as evergreen needleleaf forests. In addition, trends that were estimated based on the same interpolation method but different extraction methods were not consistent in showing significant (insignificant) differences, implying that the selection of extraction methods also affected trend estimation. Compared with other vegetation types, there were generally fewer discrepancies between trends estimated from the 8-day and 16-day dataset in evergreen needleleaf forest and open shrubland, which indicated that the dataset with a lower temporal resolution (16-day) can be applied. These findings could be conducive for analyzing the uncertainties of monitoring vegetation phenology changes.

Phenological response to temperature variability and orography in Central Italy

Even if the sensitivity of vegetation phenology to climate change has been accepted on global and continental scales, the correlation between global warming and phenotypic variability shows a modulated answer depending on altitude, latitude, and the local seasonal thermal trend. To connect global patterns of change with local effects, we investigated the impact of the observed signal of warming found in Central Italy on two different willow species, Salix acutifolia and Salix smithiana, growing in three phenological gardens of the International Phenological Gardens’ network (IPG) located in different orographic positions. The time series of temperatures and phenological data for the period 2005–2018 were analysed first to find trends over time in the three gardens and then to correlate the recent local warming and the change in the two species phenology. The results confirmed the correlation between phenological trends and local trend of temperatures. In particular: budburst showed a trend of advancement of 1.4 days/year on average in all three gardens; flowering showed a divergent pattern between the gardens of either advancement of 1.0 days/year on average or delay of 1.1 days/year on average; while senescence showed a delay reaching even 3.3 days/year, although significant in only two gardens for both species. These trends were found to be correlated mainly with the temperatures of the months preceding the occurrence of the phase, with a shift in terms of days of the year (DOY) of the two species. Our conclusion is that the observed warming in Central Italy played a key role in controlling the phenophases occurrences of the two willow species, and that the orographic forcing leads to the different shift in DOY of phenophases (from 5 to 20 days) due to the local thermal forcing of the three phenological gardens.

Hatching phenology is lagging behind an advancing snowmelt pattern in a high-alpine bird

To track peaks in resource abundance, temperate-zone animals use predictive environmental cues to rear their offspring when conditions are most favourable. However, climate change threatens the reliability of such cues when an animal and its resource respond differently to a changing environment. This is especially problematic in alpine environments, where climate warming exceeds the Holarctic trend and may thus lead to rapid asynchrony between peaks in resource abundance and periods of increased resource requirements such as reproductive period of high-alpine specialists. We therefore investigated interannual variation and long-term trends in the breeding phenology of a high-alpine specialist, the white-winged snowfinch, Montifringilla nivalis, using a 20-year dataset from Switzerland. We found that two thirds of broods hatched during snowmelt. Hatching dates positively correlated with April and May precipitation, but changes in mean hatching dates did not coincide with earlier snowmelt in recent years. Our results offer a potential explanation for recently observed population declines already recognisable at lower elevations. We discuss non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity as a potential cause for the asynchrony between changes in snowmelt and hatching dates of snowfinches, but the underlying causes are subject to further research.

Phenological trends in the pre- and post-breeding migration of long-distance migratory birds.

Phenological mismatch is often cited as a putative driver of population declines in long-distance migratory birds. The mechanisms and cues utilized to advance breeding ground arrival will impact the adaptability of species to further warming. Furthermore, timing of post-breeding migration potentially faces diverging selective pressures, with earlier onset of tropical dry seasons favouring migration advancement, while longer growing seasons in temperate areas could facilitate delayed departures. Despite this, few studies exist of migration phenology on the non-breeding grounds or on post-breeding passage. Here, we use first arrival and last departure dates of 20species of trans-Saharan migratory birds from tropical non-breeding grounds (The Gambia), between 1964 and 2019. Additionally, we use first arrival and last departure dates, as well as median arrival and departure dates, at an entry/departure site to/from Europe (Gibraltar), between 1991 and 2018. We assess phenological trends in pre- and post-breeding migration, as well as individual species' durations of stay in breeding and non-breeding areas. Furthermore, we assess the extent to which inter-annual variation in these timings may be explained by meteorological and ecological variables. We find significant advances in pre-breeding migration at both locations, while post-breeding migration is delayed. At Gibraltar, these trends do not differ between first/last and median dates of migration. The combination of these trends suggests substantial changes in the temporal usage of the two continents by migratory birds. Duration of stay (of species, not individuals) within Europe increased by 16days, on average, over the 27-year monitoring period. By contrast, duration of species' stays on the non-breeding range declined by 63days, on average, over the 56-year monitoring period. Taken together these changes suggest substantial, previously unreported alterations to annual routines in Afro-Palaearctic migrants.

Modeling the impact of climate warming on potato phenology

Understanding the influence of thermal trends, crop management practices, and genetics on the crop developmental stages and phases is critical to develop adaptation strategies in the face of warming trends. The specific study objectives were to determine the correlation between observed potato phenology with the trends of rising temperature, and to investigate the impacts of thermal trend, crop management practices, and changes in cultivars using a modeling approach. The study was conducted at 12 sites in Punjab, Pakistan from 1980 to 2018 using phenological observations for both the spring and autumn potato crop. For the stages observed during spring, there was an average advance of 6.2 days decade−1 for sowing, 6.0 for emergence, 3.8 for tuber initiation, and 2.0 for maturity. However, for the stages observed during autumn, there was an average delay of 5.2 days decade−1 for sowing, 5.1 for emergence, 3.3 for tuber initiation, and 2.3 for maturity. The average phase duration decreased on average by 2.4 days decade−1 for sowing to tuber initiation, 1.8 days decade−1 for tuber initiation to maturity for spring, and 4.2 days decade−1 for sowing to maturity. The average autumn phase duration decreased on average by 1.9 days decade−1 for sowing to tuber initiation, 1.0 days decade−1 for tuber initiation to maturity, and 2.9 days decade−1 for sowing to maturity. With respect to the local weather observation, the average air temperature had increased 0.8 °C decade−1 for spring and autumn from 1980 to 2018. The differences in spring and autumn phenology had a statistically significant negative correlation with the increase in temperature from 1980 to 2018. When the CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato model was used for a standard variety across locations and years, the predicted phenological stages, on average, occurred earlier due to increase in temperature from 1980 to 2018, while there was less impact on the observed phenological stages. This indicated that during the last four decade, adaptation strategies such as earlier planting for spring potato, and later planting for autumn, as well as the release of new cultivars that require more thermal time compared to the traditional cultivars have been implemented by growers have compensated for some part of temperature induced warming trends of spring and autumn potato phenology.

Augmenting Landsat time series with Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 data products: Assessment of spectral correspondence

An increase in the temporal revisit of satellite data is often sought to increase the likelihood of obtaining cloud- and shadow-free observations as well as to improve mapping of rapidly- or seasonally-changing features. Currently, as a tandem, Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and −8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) provide an acquisition opportunity on an 8-day revisit interval. Sentinel-2A and -2B MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), with a wider swath, have a 5-day revisit interval at the equator. Due to robust pre- and post-launch cross-calibration, it has been possible for NASA to produce the Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) data product from Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI: L30 and S30, respectively. Knowledge of the agreement of HLS outputs (especially S30) with historic Landsat surface reflectance products will inform the ability to integrate historic time-series information with new and more frequent measures as delivered by HLS. In this research, we control for acquisition date and data source to cross-compare the HLS data (L30, S30) with established Landsat-8 OLI surface-reflectance measures as delivered by the USGS (hereafter BAP, Best Available Pixel). S30 and L30 were found to have high agreement (R = 0.87–0.96) for spectral channels and an r = 0.99 for Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) with low relative root-mean-square difference values (1.7%–3.3%). Agreement between L30 and BAP was lower, with R values ranging from 0.85 to 0.92 for spectral channels and R = 0.94 for NBR. S30 and BAP had the lowest agreement, with R values ranging from 0.71 to 0.85 for spectral channels and r = 0.90 for NBR. Comparisons indicated a stronger agreement at latitudes above 55° N. Some dependency between spectral agreement and land cover was found, with stronger correspondence for non-vegetated cover types. The level of agreement between S30 and BAP reported herein would enable integration of HLS outputs with historic Landsat data. The resulting increased temporal frequency of data allows for improvements to current cloud screening practices and increases data density and the likelihood of temporal proximity to target date for pixel compositing approaches. Furthermore, additional within-year observations will enable change products with a higher temporal fidelity and allow for the incorporation of phenological trends into land cover classification algorithms.

Flyway-scale analysis reveals that the timing of migration in wading birds is becoming later.

Understanding the implications of climate change for migratory animals is paramount for establishing how best to conserve them. A large body of evidence suggests that birds are migrating earlier in response to rising temperatures, but many studies focus on single populations of model species.Migratory patterns at large spatial scales may differ from those occurring in single populations, for example because of individuals dispersing outside of study areas. Furthermore, understanding phenological trends across species is vital because we need a holistic understanding of how climate change affects wildlife, especially as rates of temperature change vary globally.The life cycles of migratory wading birds cover vast latitudinal gradients, making them particularly susceptible to climate change and, therefore, ideal model organisms for understanding its effects. Here, we implement a novel application of changepoint detection analysis to investigate changes in the timing of migration in waders at a flyway scale using a thirteen‐year citizen science dataset (eBird) and determine the influence of changes in weather conditions on large‐scale migratory patterns.In contrast to most previous research, our results suggest that migration is getting later in both spring and autumn. We show that rates of change were faster in spring than autumn in both the Afro‐Palearctic and Nearctic flyways, but that weather conditions in autumn, not in spring, predicted temporal changes in the corresponding season. Birds migrated earlier in autumn when temperatures increased rapidly, and later with increasing headwinds.One possible explanation for our results is that migration is becoming later due to northward range shifts, which means that a higher proportion of birds travel greater distances and therefore take longer to reach their destinations. Our findings underline the importance of considering spatial scale when investigating changes in the phenology of migratory bird species.

New information on the bar-tailed godwit Limosa lapponica (Linnaeus, 1758) and red-throated diver Gavia stellata (Pontoppidan, 1763) on the Crimean Peninsula (the Black Sea)

New data on the distribution of the bar-tailed godwit Limosa lapponica (Linnaeus, 1758) and red-throated diver Gavia stellata (Pontoppidan, 1763) on the Crimean Peninsula are presented. Against the backdrop of aquatic and coastal ecosystems’ transformation under natural and anthropogenic impact, even single finds of hydrophilic avifauna representatives in atypical spatiotemporal conditions are of interest for the analysis of emerging trends in migration phenology and abundance of both separate species and taxonomic and ecological groups of birds. The aim of the study was to clarify the distribution boundaries and terms of stay on the Crimean Peninsula of two hydrophilic bird species: semiaquatic species, bar-tailed godwit, and true water bird, red-throated diver. Bird observations were carried out during scheduled accountings on the Isthmus of Ak-Monay (March 2012) and in the Kruglaya Bay (Sevastopol) (July 2019). The bar-tailed godwit is registered in Crimea during spring and autumn migration periods. For the first time, it was found in the north of the Crimean Peninsula in 1972; later, there were an increase in its abundance and expansion of a distribution area. Recent records of this species in southern Crimea significantly expanded the known boundaries of its distribution on the peninsula during the migration period. The observation of the bar-tailed godwit in eastern Crimea on 14 March, 2012, specified the date its spring migration begins; the observation in Sevastopol (western foothill) on 27 July, 2019, was the first one in Mountain Crimea. Off the Crimean coast, the red-throated diver is a rare overwintering and migratory bird. The find of the red-throated diver individual in the Kruglaya Bay on 19 January, 2020, was the third reliable record of this species overwintering in Crimea and the first one in Sevastopol area. The registration of the red-throated diver at a considerable distance from its usual overwintering areas (off the southwestern coast of the Black Sea), along with numerous facts of the expansion of nesting or winter ranges of different bird species northward, confirms the ongoing climatic and ecological changes. Particular attention should be focused on the problem, associated with low ecological culture of the use and disposal of fishing tackles, which have a detrimental effect on hydrophilic birds. Measures have to be developed to regulate fishing with nets, hooks, and line tackles in the areas of bird mass overwintering and seasonal migrations.