Export Trends Research Articles

Comparison of neural networks and regression time series in predicting export from Czech Republic into People´s Republic of China

The People´s Republic of China is one of the largest, but also the most demanding markets in the world. The trade is limited by a number of barriers, strong competition and unusual environment for trades from other parts of the world. Despite those limitations, Czech exporters are able to establish themselves in the Chinese market, exporting mainly machines and vehicles. To predict future export trends is very difficult; however, these predictions can be crucial not only for individual exporters but also for the whole national economy. For predictions, economists use causal, intuitive or statistical methods. The objective of the contribution is to compare the accuracy of equalizing time series by means of regression analysis and artificial neural networks for a possible prediction of future export trends on the example of the Czech Republic export to the People´s Republic of China. For the purposes of analysis by means of statistical methods, the data obtained from monthly statements from the period starting from the year 2000 and ending in July 2018. First, a linear regression is carried out and subsequently, neural networks are used for regression. Finally, the results are compared. It appeared that in practice, mainly all retained neural networks are applicable. However, the first of them showed significant deviations within a very short period of time.

Cyclical and Structural Aspects of the Recent Export Trends: Evidence from Korea

Purpose – This paper investigates the recent trade collapse, recovery, and prolonged slowdown to shed light on the discussions about whether the current slowdown is structural or cyclical. I examine structural, cyclical, and heterogeneous aspects of the recent trade trends using detailed statistics of a small open economy, South Korea, whose economic success and growth have been heavily dependent on exports. Design/methodology – I use both aggregated and disaggregated trade statistics of South Korea. I apply the following methodologies: 1) I decompose the trade growth into the extensive and the intensive margin and observe the effect of prices over time. 2) I estimate the trade-income elasticities focusing on the world’s import demand, separately for goods from the world and from Korea. 3) I compare the drop in goods exports in slowdown and trade collapse, which are the two unusual periods in the recent history when world trade has substantially dropped altogether. Findings – I show that while the last drop of trade after 2015 has cyclical aspects, there is evidence that the continued slowdown from 2012 is structural: 1) the so-called ‘China factor’ is found in the analysis of trade-income elasticity of the world and China for imports from Korea. 2) The bilateral trade barriers between Korea and its principal trading partners are universally tightening. 3) Firm sizes, destination countries, and the mode of transactions affect disaggregated trade flows during the slowdown periods. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the debate regarding whether the current trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. I provide two concrete evidence that the export drop in 2015 stems from low oil prices: one is the divergence of Korean export value index from its export quantity index, which started in late 2014 when oil prices plunged. I also contribute to the literature by providing evidence that Korea’s trade barriers with important trading partners are steadily increasing since 2012 as the protectionist measures toward Korea’s export products are steeply increasing after the global financial crisis.

MARKETS OF GEORGIAN AGRO-FOOD PRODUCTS AND EXPORT STIMULATING ECONOMIC POLICY

The article substantiates the importance of the development of food markets in the solution of food security problem. It is argued that the tendency of demand for food has an increasing trend and the development of food markets still remains one of the most important challenges of contemporary world. The study analyzes the markets of Georgian agro- food products and studies the modern challenges in these markets. Comparative analysis of Georgian and Spanish food markets is conducted. The article estimates the positive and negative trends of export of Georgian agro-food products as well as the possibilities of diversification of products in the food markets. According to “The Impact-Immediacy” matrix the hindering factors of Georgian agro products export are identified. Using the «Priority Scheme» the priorities of economic policy stimulating the export of agro-food products are revealed. In terms of geographical orientation of the export the possibilities of diversification of food markets are discussed, especially in European markets. The conclusion is made that, in general, European food market is characterized by the growing tendency. However, in these markets there is no similar tendency for Georgian agro-food products. According to the study of the share of Georgian products and export growth rates in different countries the positive correlation between these variables is determined. But this circumstance is not considered to be sufficient for the positive impact on the economic growth. The conclusion is made that using effective mechanisms of export stimulation allows the diversification of export of Georgian agro products on the traditional but growing food markets on the one hand and on the other hand the expansion of geographical area of export markets.

Місце українського агроекспорту на світовому продовольчому ринку

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study the current state of domestic agro-exports on the world food market and determine the place of Ukrainian agro-producers on it in the context of European integration. Methodology / approach. The following methods were used in the study: abstract-logical (for theoretical generalization of conclusions and analysis of the results of the study); economic-statistical (for analysis of the current state of foreign trade in agricultural products) comparative – in the study of foreign trade balance of Ukrainian agroproducts; graphic – for determining the share of countries in world production of wheat, leaders in the export of domestic corn and wheat. Results. Trends of foreign trade of domestic agricultural products were considered. It was defined, that the basis of domestic agroexport were products of vegetative origin. The main trends of export of agricultural products in Ukraine were highlighted. As a result of the research it was established that in the world food market during the study period Ukraine was acknowledged as a predictable and powerful supplier of quality agricultural products. Originality / scientific novelty. The study of indicators of foreign trade of domestic agro-exports, analysis of commodity and geographical structure of agricultural products export in the world food market was further developed. The place of domestic agro-export in the global food market has been determined. Practical value / implications. The results of the conducted research can be used for further scientific researches on determination of directions in development of the domestic agrarian sector of Ukraine, in the context of diversification of development of new market segments for certain types of products within certain tariff quotas.

Elevated dissolved heavy metal discharge following rainfall downstream of intensive horticulture

Heavy metals may be released from soils during rain events. Observations during the first flush (rain event preceded by dry period) are difficult, but may account for a large fraction of annual loads. Here, we report detailed time series measurements of dissolved heavy metals and the groundwater tracer radon (222Rn) over multiple rain events from a creek draining a catchment dominated by intensive horticulture on the subtropical east coast of Australia. The creek drains to an intermittently closed and open lake or lagoon (ICOLL), a typical estuary type along the east coast of Australia. A sandbank prevents the estuary mouth from connecting with the ocean during dry conditions. Following a 109 mm rain event, the ICOLL began to drain to the coastal ocean. Mean export of Hg, Cu, and Zn was 0.23 ± 0.05, 1.06 ± 0.25, and 15.70 ± 2.69 g m−2 day−1 for the entire time series and 0.72 ± 0.17, 1.27 ± 0.12, 24.14 ± 3.82 g m−2 day−1 averaged from high resolution sampling over 72 h of the first flush event. Trends of Hg export differed from the other heavy metals. Over 79% of the estimated Hg export occurred within 72 h of the ICOLL opening, compared to 30 and 38% of Cu and Zn. The first flush and subsequent major rain events (> 50 mm day-1) drove concentrations of Hg, Cu and Zn to exceed the Australia and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council (ANZECC) water quality guidelines (WQG) for both fresh and marine water. Comparisons of heavy metal export to downstream estuary sediment burial rates revealed that the estuary is likely a source of dissolved Hg and Cd to the coastal ocean when the ICOLL is open.

Decline in U.S. Turbine Exports

U.S. exports of turbines and turbine generating sets (“turbines”) for power generation and mechanical drive applications fell 40 percent during 2014–18. Excluding parts, the decline was more significant, with exports falling 56 percent. This briefing will discuss export trends and the reasons for the decline in exports.

Features of statistical methods for forecasting the economic performance of an enterprise

The aim of the study. The purpose of the article is to improve the methodological provisions for the development of medium-term forecast of exports of raw materials for the manufacture of glue and finished products based on the trend of exports of domestic enterprises, which will help solve problems of adapting statistical analysis methods to real economic activities. Methodology. In the study of the state and trends of foreign trade of Ukraine in raw materials for the manufacture of glue and finished products with all countries used tabular-graphical method and systematic analysis; when developing a medium-term forecast - the method of extrapolation. Results. The application of statistical methods allowed to identify patterns and trends in foreign economic activity (FEA), and to determine the optimal directions for entry into the foreign market Bristol Eco Group Ltd. technological renewal of production, expanding relationships with customers and suppliers, finding new customers, increasing traditional products , and active renewal of their range, expansion of markets through penetration into the markets of the Republic of Moldova, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. The following directions of development of Bristol Eco Group LLC were identified: according to the optimistic scenario: formation of the strategy of market expansion - penetration into the markets of the Republic of Moldova and Belarus; optimization of the product "portfolio" of the enterprise; development of an effective competitive strategy (diversification); sales promotion (promotion of goods based on the ratio of "price / quality"); according to the pessimistic scenario: either complete reorganization and reorganization of the enterprise, or its sale to the main competitor. Prospects for further research. It is determined that for the effective functioning of the company LLC "Bristol Eco Group", it is advisable to create a department of foreign economic activity, which will contribute to the deepening of trade relations with foreign partners and will provide an opportunity to improve its export potential.

Analysis and comparison of embodied energies in gross exports of the construction sector by means of their value-added origins

Energy is a vital necessity in driving the development of the global economy, national industries, and even services for people. The construction sector consumes a high proportion of energy and this requires improvement for its sustainable development. Due to the growth of multilateral trade, the energy flows embodied in the global trade network have become more complex, and the energy embodied in the exports of vertical specialisation trade has increased rapidly in satisfying domestic final energy consumption. This paper traces the original creation of the value added in the national construction sectors in the global value chain based on their energy consumption in the production of gross exports. The gross exports are broken down into domestic and foreign value-added exports, and the energies embodied in these two types of exports are analysed and compared. The exports of foreign value added is mainly indicated by the exports of vertical specialisation trade. Net outflows in domestic value-added exports and net outflows in exports of vertical specialisation trade are then used in measurement of sectoral position in the global value chain. The results show that the overall trend of domestic value-added exports continues to increase in the construction sectors of the majority of countries. Russia, China, and the USA performed significantly in relation to the quantity of energy embodied in domestic value-added exports. Moreover, the effect of technology needs to be considered in the production of exports for vertical specialisation trade. The distribution of the net outflow is similar to the performance of the energy embodied in domestic content in the construction sector. The net inflow of embodied energy was positive in all countries, which indicates that the energy embodied in exports of vertical specialisation trade was mainly derived from the support of the international market. Only one country had a lower net outflow of embodied energy than in gross exports. For policymakers, a policy guiding the exports of the construction sector needs to be considered in relation to the origins of the value added. The export structure in the construction sector is encouraged to move toward technology-intensive, instead of labour-intensive products in order to enhance sustainable energy development.

Состояние и перспективы экспортного потенциала сельского хозяйства Северного Кавказа

Abstract. Recently, agriculture has seen a slowdown in growth. The reason for the latter is seen in the peculiar saturation and increase of competition in the domestic market of agri-food products. In this situation, one of the areas and sources of stimulating the growth of agriculture is the development of exports, the search for new foreign markets. The aim is to empirically test the hypothesis of agricultural exports as a factor in the growth of agriculture and the regional economy with the dominant agri-food sector, and to formulate the directions and tools of raising export capacity in agriculture in the North Caucasus. The empirical basis for verification of the provisions is the data of official statistics, systematized in the collections of Rosstat from 2005 to 2017, as well as the sample data of the authors. The methodical basis is a set of statistical, economic and mathematical and descriptive methods that provide analysis of empirical (statistical) data, identification of dynamic and structural trends in agricultural exports to agricultural products North Caucasus and the wording of proposals to ensure efficient use of export potential in agriculture of North Caucasus entities. The article explores the state, dynamic and structural trends in the export and import of food products and agricultural raw materials in the North Caucasus. The novelty of the results: (a) the dependence of agricultural exports on the volume of gross agricultural products, as well as the retail turnover of food products and imports, has been identified, formalized and quantified; (b) The wording of the conclusion on the stimulating role of exports and imports of food and agricultural raw materials on the dynamics of the gross agricultural output of the macro-region, while achieving the limit by other factors (Manufacturing and consumer) growth; (c) proposals to increase the volume and efficiency of food exports and agricultural raw materials in the North Caucasus. The results are new both on the object of the study (agriculture of the North Caucasus) and on the statistics used. In some cases, they confirm previous results of other authors, in others represent new trends in the development of macro and regional agriculture.

Inter‐annual simulation of global carbon cycle variations in a terrestrial–aquatic continuum

AbstractThe advanced process‐based model, National Integrated Catchment‐based Eco‐hydrology (NICE)‐BGC, which incorporates the whole process of carbon cycling in land, was modified to include the feedback between soil organic content and overland carbon fluxes. It is a crucial and difficult task to evaluate the balance of the terrestrial carbon budget including the effect of inland water robustly. To accomplish this purpose, NICE‐BGC was applied to quantify the global biogeochemical carbon cycle closely associated with the complex hydrological cycle during the 36 years between 1980 and 2015. The model demonstrated that the inter‐annual variations of carbon cycle have been greatly affected by the extreme weather patterns. In particular, spatial distribution of temporal trends in riverine carbon fluxes and their relation to soil organic carbon (SOC) were analysed between different biomes and major river basins. Although there was a positive relationship between SOC and riverine flux of dissolved organic carbon and particulate organic carbon in the northern boreal region, it is difficult to see this relation in other regions. Further, the evaluation of potential controlling factors of temporal trends in SOC and fluvial carbon exports was also helpful to quantify the inter‐annual variation or temporal trend caused by the various effects. SOC was more influenced by temperature variations, whereas riverine carbon exports were mainly determined by precipitation variations. Finally, net land flux including inland water (−1.49 ± 0.50 PgC/year) showed a slight decrease in the carbon sink in comparison with previous values (−2.33 ± 0.50 PgC/year). These results help to distinguish the carbon cycle in different river basins and to re‐evaluate carbon cycle change explicitly including the effect of inland water because this effect has been so far implicitly included within the range of uncertainty in the Earth's global carbon cycle comprising land, oceans, and atmosphere.

THE ANALYSIS OF EXPORTS PERFORMANCE IN ALGERIA FOR THE PERIOD 1992-2016

The study aims to investigate the export performance in Algeria. For this purpose, the researcher used a descriptive approach to examine how trends in exports, export composition, export concentration, market share, and export volatility have changed in Algeria's plans and reform programs. The study found an improvement in Algeria exports during 1992-2016, but this performance weakened during the more recent years. The export composition showed that consumer products and raw materials represented the bulk of Algeria's total exports with an average share of 91.5%. The share of intermediate and capital goods was low, with a percentage of only 3%. It also showed that the largest part of Algeria's products was exported to Europe and Central Asian and North American countries, with an average share of 86%. The results revealed a lack of diversification in Algeria's exports as the product concentration was on average, 97.2%. The extent of geographic concentration ranged between 61% and 78% in Algeria's exports was also high. The market share of Algeria has improved considerably during the study period as it achieved the highest value in 2011. This expansion is explained by the high integration of Algeria by exporting fuel products in the world market. The extent of export volatility has varied during the study period as it was at its highest level (54.1%) during the period 1992-1995. In contrast, the extent of Algeria's exports was less during 2009-2013 as it was only 19.8%. To improve export performance in Algeria, the government should reduce the concentration in their export products and upgrade the structure of their export basket by including more advanced products (such as intermediate, capital and other manufactured products). Improving the export performance in Algeria can also be achieved by enhancing trade relationships with traditional markets as well as other trading partners. These initiatives can be also helpful in reducing the extent of volatility in Algeria's export earnings.Keywords: Exports Composition, Exports concentration, Market share, Export volatility.JEL Classifications: F100DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.8447

Trend And Growth Of Exports Of Medicinal Plants And Aloe Vera From India


 Medicinal plants have been an essential share of Indian health and living systems. The present paper deals with the trend and growth of exports of medicinal plants and aloe vera from India.
 The study has the following objectives
 
 To study the quantity of export of medicinal plants and Aloe vera from India in 2004-05 to 2017-18.
 To find out the quantum of export of medicinal plants to various countries from India over the period from 2009-10 to 2017-18.
 To analyse export of Aloe vera to various countries from India and
 To find out trend and growth of exports of medicinal plants and aloe vera from India

Competitividad comercial del cacao (Theobroma cacao L.), en el mercado de Nicaragua, Guatemala, Hondura, Panamá, Costa Rica y El Salvador en el periodo del 2011-2015

El presente estudio tiene por objetivo el análisis de la competitividad comercial del cacao, en el periodo 2011-2015del mercado centroamericano, enfocado a la participación de Nicaragua en comparación a cada país de la región centroamericana, dirigido al comercio del cacao mediante las exportaciones e importaciones, oportunidades y procesos de exportación. Para la recolección de datos estadísticos se consultó las bases de datos FAO, CETREX y SIECA, se elaboró tablas dinámicas, tablas de frecuencias y gráficos para su posterior análisis e interpretación. El estudio demostróque en Centroamérica presenta una tendencia creciente en cuanto a las exportaciones del año 2011 al 2015, en este contexto Nicaragua es el país que más exporta cacao en valores monetario con promedios porcentuales superiores al 55% en relación a los demás países de la región, en cuanto al volumen de exportación Nicaragua se posiciona en el lugar más alto , indicando que exporta con los mejores precios del mercado internacional, ubicándose competitivamente en primer lugar en comparación a los demás países de la región por su alta calidad del grano. El destino de las exportaciones de Centroamérica en su mayoría está destinado a los países de la misma región, siendo importadores: Guatemala, El Salvador y Panamá, en países fuera de la región centroamericana están Costa de Marfil, Ecuador, Bélgica y Alemania.

Indian Handloom Sector – A Glimpse

Handloom sector in India is an important unorganized, diversified, decentralized, huge employment provider, good contributory to an economy, eco-friendly, family and rural-based; artistic and heritage. This paper is animated to analyze the important elements of the handloom sector such as dependent households, weavers, looms, worked man-days; production trends, export trends,and imports.

The Health and Competitiveness of the U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Industry

In 1991 the United States International Trade Commission initiated an Industry and Trade Summary series of informational reports on products imported to, and exported from, the United States. As part of this series, analysts from the Office of Industries published a summary of the state of the Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment (SME) industry in June 2006. This report provides updated information on the health and competitiveness of the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry. After discussing the structure of, and relationship between, the semiconductor and semiconductor manufacturing equipment industries, this paper provides an overview of the SME industry’s key characteristics, including supply and demand. The U.S. SME industry and market are then described along with trends in exports, imports and the balance of trade between 2014–18. The paper concludes with analysis of five challenges and opportunities that will affect the health and competitiveness of the U.S. SME industry: China’s rise as a producer and consumer of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, the end of Moore’s Law, the introduction of extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment, and foreign investment restrictions and export control reform.

Current Trends and Prospects of Direct Foreign Investment Export from China

Along with consolidation of its international commercial power status superpower, China has made significant progress in the capital export sphere. Direct foreign direct investments is a main tool of the country’s deep integration into the system of international division of labor, its involvement into the global value chain. The article analyzes the quantitative and qualitative changes in current trends of direct foreign investment export from China, reveals the change in geographical and industrial priorities of Chinese investors, identifies legislative and other institutional transformations changes in this area. The author identifies the systematic and situational reasons for the relevant changes, substantiates them both from the viewpoint of the complex of the Chinese government’s strategic measures in reforming the national economic system and from the position of the changing conditions of China's investment cooperation with foreign countries. A conclusion is made about preservation of the current trends vector in the near-term and medium-term prospect.

Тrade policy as an instrument to promote industrial development in Ukraine

Relevance of the research topic is due to the rapid growth in world trade, which leads to new challenges for Ukraine’s industry in the context of deepening economic globalization and increasing international competition. Under these conditions, the development and application of effective industrial policy instruments aimed at supporting promising sectors of the processing industry in the process of integration into the world market is very important. Formulation of the problem. New opportunities associated with the further liberalization of foreign trade in an increasingly open and competitive environment require the creation of a favorable environment for promoting the export activities of Ukrainian industrial producers under the constraints of international trade agreements. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. In the context of increasing the influence of integration processes on the development of production, the problem of choosing the most effective instruments of state regulation, which most of all contributed to active cooperation with foreign partners for export-oriented industrial producers of Ukraine, in particular for products with a higher degree of processing, remains insufficiently studied. Setting the task, the purpose of the study. The objective of the study is to develop proposals for effective trade policy instruments aimed at supporting the export of industrial products with higher added value within the framework of the existing restrictions of international agreements. Method or methodology for conducting research. General scientific methods are used in the work: abstract-logical, systemic; analysis and synthesis, statistical comparisons, grouping, sampling; expert assessments. The field of application of results. The results of this study can be applied in the process of government policy formation on the main aspects of the export development of industry in the context of integration processes. Conclusions. Based on the analysis of quantitative and qualitative indicators of international trade, its geographical vectors, trends in exports and imports of Ukrainian-made industrial goods are disclosed, and effective trade policy instruments are proposed: namely, non-tariff regulatory methods aimed at creating effective policies and institutions and can be used for the eliminating restrictions upon integration of the Ukrainian manufacturer to the international markets.

Challenges of the Export for Natural Rubber Latex in the ASEAN Market

There are approximately 90% of the world natural rubber (NR) supplies are produced by the top 4 NR exporting countries, particularly Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. The export challenges and uncertainties of the NR latex in the ASEAN market are influenced by many factors. All these issues have driven the motivation of this study that aims to investigate the factors affecting the export of the NR latex, to analyse the relationship among the export price, production and exchange rate with the export, and to predict the export of the NR latex of the four countries. The data from 1999 to 2016 are utilized as the panel data analysis and granger homogeneously causality test for estimations. Estimation reveals that the independent variables, namely export price and production are exhibiting significant positively and the exchange rate shows a negative relationship with export. To conclude, Indonesia and Malaysia are estimated to have decreasing trends of NR latex export. Inversely, Thailand and Vietnam are predicted to exhibit increasing trends of NR latex export. The novelty of this study concerns effectively on the enhancement and stability of NR production in the ASEAN markets despite of the challenges arising from the global market integration.

Trends in Export and Import of Beer of Barley in Nigeria: 1961-2014

The importance of Beer of Barley is due to Nigeria being Africa’s largest beer consuming country, hence; require increasing output to meet up with domestic beer production since importation of bottled beer is banned. At present, Beer of Barley is exported and imported, this study aimed to measure growth rate between import and export over a 54 year period divided into three policy periods centred on Structural Adjustment policies (SAP) namely: Pre-SAP (1961-1985), SAP (1986-1998) and Post-SAP (1999-2014) with the sole purpose of identifying period associated with rising exports and falling imports. Log-linear and log-quadratic models are used to determine growth rates and patterns of growth respectively. Findings show that while the Post-SAP period experienced rising exports and falling imports, the period was also associated with a stagnated growth pattern. Therefore, institutions that support Post-SAP policy measures, in particular import ban on bottled/canned beer should be vigorously sustained and strengthened in order to accelerate growth.

U.S. seafood consumption

AbstractU.S. seafood consumption has changed dramatically in recent decades and has become increasingly dominated by the consumption of a limited number of species that are primarily imported and predominantly sourced from aquaculture. In getting to this point, the United States has been, and still is, at the forefront of some of the most important trends in global seafood markets. Hence, discussing the factors influencing U.S. seafood consumption patterns is an interesting and informative endeavor and will most likely also have strong predictive power for the continued development of seafood markets in the United States. In this article, we will discuss the transitions in the U.S. seafood market, primarily focusing on the period from 1990 to the present, highlighting the main factors that facilitated this development. This article provides an overview of U.S. landings, aquaculture production, exports, and imports and also explores contributing trends in global export and import markets. This will be followed by a discussion of U.S. per capita consumption patterns and an examination of the consolidation of species consumed over time. Finally, implications for future trends in seafood consumption and production are discussed.