Tree-ring Proxy Research Articles

Adjusting the significance of daily climate responses in tree-ring proxies

Correlating tree-ring parameters with daily resolved climate data is becoming increasingly common for understanding the complex relationships between tree growth and the surrounding environment. However, with an increased number of calculated correlations, there is an inherent risk of spurious significance. In this study, we present an analysis using synthetic weather and tree-ring data mimicking the statistical properties of ten real-world sites across Europe to quantify the extent to which numerous comparisons may inflate maximum correlations. Comparisons of different tree-ring proxies, considering varying overlapping period lengths and seasons, revealed 95th percentile correlation differences reaching 0.25 by chance. Using synthetic tree-ring chronologies with an assigned non-signal (r = 0.00), spurious correlations can reach statistical significance in over 60% of tests. Correlation inflation is greater when: (1) the climate-proxy relationship is weaker; (2) comparison periods are shorter; and (3) the length of seasonal windows is longer. Autocorrelation in the proxy records does not appear to have a major effect. These findings indicate that caution should be exercised when computing high numbers of correlations with limited observations. We provide tables listing correlation inflations for precipitation- and temperature-sensitive tree-ring chronologies that can inform interpretations of significance.

Evaluating tree-ring proxies for representing the ecosystem productivity in India.

Terrestrial ecosystems are one of the major sinks of atmospheric CO2 and play a key role in climate change mitigation. Forest ecosystems offset nearly 25% of the global annual CO2 emissions, and a large part of this is stored in the aboveground woody biomass. Several studies have focused on understanding the carbon sequestration processes in forest ecosystems and their response to climate change using the eddy covariance (EC) technique and remotely sensed vegetation indices. However, very few of them address the linkage of tree-ring growth with the ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, and nearly none have tested this linkage over a long-term (> 100 years) - limited by the short-term (< 50 years) availability of measured ecosystem carbon flux. Nevertheless, tree-ring indices can potentially act as proxies for ecosystem productivity. We utilise the Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) model outputs for its 140-year-long simulated records of mean monthly gross primary productivity (GPP) and compare them with the tree-ring growth indices over the northwestern Himalayan region in India. In this study, we examine three coniferous tree species: Pinus roxburghii and Picea smithiana wall. Boiss and Cedrus deodara and find that the strength of the correlation between GPP and tree ring growth indices (RWI) varies among the species.

Unstable State of Hydrologic Regime and Grain Yields in Northern Kazakhstan Estimated with Tree-Ring Proxies

Changes in the hydrologic regime impose great challenges for grain production. We investigated the impact of dry and wet extremes on the recent losses of crops in Severo-Kazakhstanskaya Oblast (SKO), where 25% of Kazakhstan’s wheat is produced. We reconstructed the Palmer Drought Severity Index (June–August PDSI) and average grain yields (with an explained variance of 48% and 44%, respectively) using five tree ring width chronologies. The extended history of the moisture variability and yields of spring wheat, oats, and barley shows the strong impact of hydrology, rather than the heat, on the grain production. We defined three distinctive hydrologic regimes in SKO: (1) 1886–1942, (2) 1943–1977, (3) 1978–2023. The early regime had fewer drought events, including some that covered a single year. Their duration increased up to 3 years in the second period. The latest regime is an extreme mode of hydrologic variability with events abruptly switching from extremely dry to extremely wet conditions (called “whiplash”). The 21st century regime signifies that the intensified and prolonged decade-long drought transitioned into pluvial condition. The new regime created sizable instability for grain producers. This crop yield reconstruction denotes the potential of the tree-ring proxy for understanding the impact of climate change on the agriculture and food security of Central Asia.

Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends

Abstract. There are indications that the reference climatology underlying meteorological drought has shown nonstationarity at seasonal, decadal, and centennial timescales, impacting the calculation of drought indices and potentially having ecological and economic consequences. Analyzing these trends in meteorological drought climatology beyond 100 years, a time frame which exceeds the available period of observation data, contributes to a better understanding of the nonstationary changes, ultimately determining whether they are within the range of natural variability or outside this range. To accomplish this, our study introduces a novel approach to integrate unevenly scaled tree-ring proxy data from the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by first temporally downscaling the proxy data to produce a regular time series and then modeling climate nonstationarity while simultaneously correcting model-induced bias. This new modeling approach was applied to 14 sites across the continental United States using the 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) as a basis. The findings showed that certain locations have experienced recent rapid shifts towards drier or wetter conditions during the instrumental period compared to the past 1000 years, with drying trends generally found in the west and wetting trends in the east. This study also found that seasonal shifts have occurred in some regions recently, with seasonality changes most notable for southern gauges. We expect that our new approach provides a foundation for incorporating various datasets to examine nonstationary variability in long-term precipitation climatology and to confirm the spatial patterns noted here in greater detail.

Shifting potential for high-resolution climate reconstructions under global warming

Reconstructions of climate in pre-instrumental times are a cornerstone of earth-system science that relies critically on statistical relationships between meteorological observations and natural proxy archives. Recent studies have frequently reported that these relationships are not stable in time (non-stationarity), which might be due to environmental change (climate, atmospheric CO2), data resolution and quality, and statistical methods applied. Here, we assess the elusive impacts of these factors on the palaeoclimatological potential across the Northern Hemisphere. Scrutinizing spatiotemporal patterns in widely applied calibration metrics derived from 3781 tree-ring chronologies and 517 published dendroclimatic studies, we show that temperature and precipitation sensitivity have increased towards present. This increase was most pronounced in moisture-limited areas and accentuated when using daily rather than monthly instrumental data. An assessment of climate scenarios for 2021–2040 indicated further expansion of areas with strong water limitation (+5 ± 2%), whereas the areas with strong temperature limitation are projected to shrink by 8 ± 3% (tree-ring width proxy) and 3 ± 2% (maximum latewood density proxy). These findings indicate that further refinement of statistical methods will likely no longer compensate for trees’ decreasing temperature sensitivity. Further, a scenario of increased CO2 fertilization may mitigate water limitation on tree growth and weaken precipitation reconstructions. Finally, we discuss the potential drivers of non-stationarity and the consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology.

Tree ring oxygen isotope in Asia

Tree-ring oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) is a powerful proxy for paleoclimatology, ecology and archaeology, δ18OTR studies in Asia over the past ∼50 years have made significant achievements in improving our understanding of Asian climatic and ecological systems. Here, we review these developments in δ18OTR research in Asia. Most study sites are located within East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and North Asia, and δ18OTR records from conifers, broadleaf trees, and shrubs have been produced. Progress has been made in the following areas: (1) Experimental techniques. The novel plate method for cellulose extraction has been developed, which reduces experimental time and greatly improves efficiency. (2) Development of δ18OTR chronologies. Ninety-six chronologies exceeding 200 years in length have been produced. A 4354-year δ18OTR chronology with an annual-resolution has been produced in Japan, and a 6700-year δ18OTR chronology with a 1–5 year resolution has been produced in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, which is the longest in Asia. (3) Biological influences on δ18OTR. Variations of intra- and inter-tree and inter-species δ18OTR have been investigated, and the relationship between tree age and δ18OTR has been explored. (4) Climatic implications. Seasonal δ18OTR records primarily reflect the variability of precipitation δ18O, facilitating high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions, while interannual δ18OTR records mainly reflect summer moisture variability. (5) Climate reconstructions. Quantitative estimates have been produced for past precipitation, relative humidity, PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), runoff, and other parameters from δ18OTR records. Since 1850, δ18OTR chronologies in monsoon regions show upward trends indicative of drying, while these from westerlies regions exhibit downward shifts implying wetting. (6) Dating. Intra- and inter-annual δ18OTR records help determine the annual growth of trees without rings and facilitate the cross-dating of trees with rings. Thus, the dating of archaeological and buried wood is feasible via comparisons with δ18OTR master chronologies. Promising areas of development include climatic implications (e.g., Position-specific isotope analysis, seasonal δ18OTR records on longer timescales and larger spatial scales), climate reconstructions (syntheses of multiple sites and records, development of long chronologies, deep time paleoclimate reconstructions) and ecological applications (e.g., the response of trees to climatic extremes, and the combinations with multiple tree-ring multiple proxies such as width and density).

Assessment of climate extremes at the regional scale during the last millennium using an annually resolved stalagmite record

In public awareness, extraordinary floods, heat-waves, or drought episodes rank amongst the most tangible indications of a changing climate. Forecasting the magnitude of such extreme events at regional and local scales is a major challenge. Development of reliable small-scale climate models requires testing against past climate records, but these are often incomplete, or cover only partial aspects in a spectrum of environmental parameters, e.g., due to seasonal bias as it is the case for tree-ring records. Here, we study a stalagmite from the “Kleine Teufelshöhle” (KTH) in the Franconian karst (Germany) to obtain independent information on local climate conditions at multi-annual to multi-decadal time scales. Radiocarbon and 230Th/U dating provide constraints for linear growth models, which were then successfully refined by correlating high spatial resolution O isotope data for the KTH stalagmite with a published regional tree-ring width record at annual resolution for the past 1000 years. Besides the availability of the tree-ring record, the KTH site offers the additional advantage that direct comparison between tree-ring and speleothem climate proxies with historical documents is possible due to the proximity of the speleothem and tree-ring sites to the former “Free imperial city” of Nuremberg. Historical documents provide precisely dated records of extreme events, in particular for destructive floods. Higher O isotope values in the stalagmite characterize the “Litte Ice Age" (LIA), an interval coinciding with frequent and devastating floods, sometimes associated with river blockage related to accumulation of ice rafts. Prior to approximately 1500 Common Era (CE), O isotope values were generally lower and only show minor overlap with historical flooding accounts. Conversely, some known drought events for Central Europe as well as the climatic influence of large-volume volcanic eruptions with hemispheric to global impact may be recorded in the speleothem as negative excursions in speleothem O isotopic values. The correlated tree-ring and speleothem data for the first time provide a complementary paleohydrology record that is uniquely suited to resolve extreme short-term climate events at the regional scale.

Tree rings in Tsuga dumosa reveal increasing drought variability in subtropical southwest China over the past two centuries

High-resolution palaeoclimate proxy records have been lacking for the subtropical region of southwest China. To gain insights into hydroclimate variability in central Yunnan Province, we constructed a tree ring-width chronology of Tsuga dumosa from the Wuliang Mountain area. Correlation analysis shows that moisture availability is predominantly the limiting factor on radial growth, particularly during the spring-early summer season. Using a well-calibrated regression model (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), we reconstructed the March–June Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the period from 1826 to 2020 CE. Eleven extreme drought years (1860, 1897, 1958, 1960, 1979, 1984, 1987, 2006, 2010, 2013, and 2019) were identified, with most of them confirmed by historical evidence. The reconstruction series shows inter-annual to inter-decadal variations and an increasing occurrence of severe dry or wet events in the recent past, particularly during the last 50 years. Our drought reconstruction series shows high frequency cycle of 2–8 years. Spatial correlations indicate that our drought reconstruction captures hydrological signals over a larger area. In line with this, the reconstructed dry periods exhibit broad consistency with other tree-ring based drought reconstructions conducted in nearby regions. Our findings demonstrate the potential of tree-ring proxies for hydroclimate reconstruction in the subtropical areas of southwest China and provide crucial information for evaluating long-term climate change in this region.

Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate.

Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era1. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century2,3, in contrast tosimulation experiments at regional scales4. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections5. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.

Tree-ring δ18Ocellulose variations in two Nothofagus species record large-scaleclimatic signals in the South American sector of the Southern Ocean

In recent decades, southernmost South America (50–56° S) has experienced marked climate change (regional warming, decreased precipitation, reduced snow cover, and increased frequency of heat waves) related to variations in atmospheric circulation over varied timescales. In this paper, we develop oxygen isotopes from tree-ring cellulose (δ18OTRC) as a proxy for climate and atmospheric circulation in order to extend the regional meteorological record to deeper time intervals. Our work focuses on Nothofagus forests in two areas: (i) deciduous N. pumilio forest in the steppe transition zone near Punta Arenas and (ii) humid evergreen N. betuloides forest in the Navarino Island region. To investigate the potential for reconstructing palaeoclimate, δ18OTRC variations were correlated with local climate parameters as well as regional (Amundsen Sea Low, ASL) and hemispheric (Antarctic Oscillation, AAO) atmospheric circulation modes for the last 60 years. N. betuloides δ18OTRC variations show an overall positive trend, indicating isotopic enrichment over the study period, whereas no trend is recorded for the N. pumilio record. The strongest relationships with climate, together with the widest spatial representativeness, occur in the N. betuloides chronology during the growing season (spring to austral summer) and extend spatially from mid to high latitudes. In contrast, the sensitivity of the records is limited to summer months, and spatial correlations are much more limited. In addition, the N. betuloides record shows greater potential for reconstructing local climate features such as soil water (r = − 0.76), wind speed (r = 0.69), and precipitation (r = − 0.66), as well as regional (ASL, r = − 0.80) and hemispheric (AAO, r = 0.77) patterns of extratropical atmospheric circulation. Overall, we conclude that the N. betuloides record represents the most valuable tree-ring climate proxy for southernmost South America over past centuries.

Post-drought moisture condition determines tree growth recovery after extreme drought events in the Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China

Recently, forests in the Tianshan Mountains have shown a marked decline in growth and an increased mortality rate because of the more frequent and severe effects of extreme drought, which threatens the ecosystem services they provide. To achieve forest conservation and sustainable development benefits, it is crucial to understand the post-drought recovery trajectory of tree growth and its driving factors. In this study, we quantified the growth recovery performance of dominant tree species in the Tianshan Mountains after extreme drought events and determined the influences of climate factors on forest growth resilience using tree-ring proxy data. The results showed that post-drought moisture conditions may determine the post-drought growth recovery of trees. The post-drought growth for 1997 was higher than that for 1974, which may be attributed to the subsequent period of 1997 experiencing very high precipitation, whereas the year following the 1974 drought was dry (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index < 0). Because of the more favorable climate conditions in the post-drought period, the observed relationship between resistance and recovery in 1997 showed a closer fit to the hypothetical “line of full resilience” which sets resilience to a constant value of 1, allowing trees to recover fully at any given value of resistance. Trees showed lower mean values of the tree growth recovery index (RC) and average recovery rate (ARR) and higher mean values of total growth reduction (TGR) and recovery period (RE) for the drought event in 1974 than that in 1997. We distinguished the relative influence of temperature and precipitation on different drought phases using Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) model. The results showed that the climate conditions during the drought year and subsequent precipitation variation were most influential variables for tree growth recovery. Specifically, post-drought precipitation explained up to 20 % of the variance in RC, TGR, RE, and ARR. These findings deepen our understanding of the impacts of prolonged drought on tree growth, which could aid in developing forest management and conservation strategies to respond to extreme drought.

Do Different Tree-Ring Proxies Contain Different Temperature Signals? A Case Study of Norway Spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) in the Eastern Carpathians.

One of the most important proxy archives for past climate variation is tree rings. Tree-ring parameters offer valuable knowledge regarding how trees respond and adapt to environmental changes. Trees encode all environmental changes in different tree-ring parameters. In this study, we analyzed how air temperature is encoded in different Norway spruce tree-ring proxies along an altitude gradient in an intramountain valley of the Carpathians. The study area, in the Gheorgheni region, Romania (Eastern Carpathians), has a mountain climate with a frequent temperature inversion in winter. The climate–growth relationship was analyzed for two contrasting altitudes: low elevation, i.e., below 1000 m a.s.l., and high elevation, i.e., above 1500 m a.s.l. Two local weather stations, one in the valley and the other on the upper part of the mountains, provide daily temperatures (Joseni—750 m a.s.l. and Bucin—1282 m a.s.l.). The bootstrap Pearson correlation between cumulative daily temperature data and three tree-ring proxies (tree-ring width—TRW, basal area increment—BAI, and blue intensity—BI) was computed for each series. The results show that elevation modulates the climate response pattern in the case of BI, and remains relatively similar for TRW and BAI. The winter temperature’s positive influence on spruce growth was observed in both TRW and BAI chronologies. Additionally, the BAI chronology highlights a positive relationship with summer temperature. The highest correlation coefficient (r = 0.551, p < 0.05, n = 41) was recorded between BI residual chronology from high elevation series and summer/autumn temperature from the upper-part weather station for a cumulative period of 59 days (the second half of August to the beginning of October). Our results show that, for this intramountain valley of the Eastern Carpathians, different tree-ring proxies capture different climate signals.

Using a process-based dendroclimatic proxy system model in a data assimilation framework: a test case in the Southern Hemisphere over the past centuries

Abstract. Currently available data-assimilation-based reconstructions of past climate variations have only used statistical proxy system models to make the link between climate model outputs and indirect observations from tree rings. However, the linearity and stationarity assumptions of the statistical approach may have limitations. In this study, we incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure using the reconstruction of near-surface air temperature, precipitation and winds in the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere over the past 400 years as a test case. We compare our results with a data assimilation approach including a linear regression as a proxy system model for tree-ring width proxies. Overall, when compared to instrumental data, the reconstructions using MAIDEN as a proxy system model offer a skill equivalent to the experiment using the regression model. However, knowing the advantages that a process-based model can bring and the improvements that can still be made with MAIDEN, those results are promising.

Tropical volcanoes synchronize eastern Canada with Northern Hemisphere millennial temperature variability

Although global and Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions are coherent with climate model simulations over the last millennium, reconstructed temperatures tend to diverge from simulations at smaller spatial scales. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent these regional peculiarities reflect region-specific internal climate variability or inadequate proxy coverage and quality. Here, we present a high-quality, millennial-long summer temperature reconstruction for northeastern North America, based on maximum latewood density, the most temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy. Our reconstruction shows that a large majority (31 out of 44) of the coldest extremes can be attributed to explosive volcanic eruptions, with more persistent cooling following large tropical than extratropical events. These forced climate variations synchronize regional summer temperatures with hemispheric reconstructions and simulations at the multidecadal time scale. Our study highlights that tropical volcanism is the major driver of multidecadal temperature variations across spatial scales.

&lt;i&gt;Corrigendum to&lt;/i&gt;: Regional drought synchronised historical fires in dry forests of the Montane Cordillera Ecozone, Canada

Understanding climate as a driver of low- to moderate-severity fires in the Montane Cordillera Ecozone of Canada is a priority given predicted and observed increases in frequency and severity of large fires due to climate change. We characterised historical fire-climate associations using 14 crossdated fire-scar records and tree-ring proxy reconstructions of summer drought and annual precipitation from the region. We compared fire-climate associations among years when fires burned in multiple study areas. From 1746 to 1945, there were 32 years with moderate fire synchrony in which four to six study areas recorded fire. During four high fire synchrony years, 7 to 10 study areas recorded fire. Below-average annual precipitation and summer drought synchronised fires, whereas infrequent years of high fire synchrony were preceded by a wet summer. After 1945, decreased fire occurrence and synchrony reflects fire exclusion, suppression and climatic variation. Global climate change manifests as blocking high-pressure ridges that superimpose on longer fire-seasons and increased droughts. Combined, they make dry forests increasingly susceptible to synchronous fires, which are difficult to suppress as observed during the record-breaking 2017, 2018 and 2021 fire seasons in British Columbia.

Dendroclimatology of Yellow-Cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) and Temperature Variability on the Western Slopes of the North Cascades in Washington State, USA, from 1333 to 2015 CE

Long-term paleoclimate reconstructions of temperature provide context for the magnitude of recent anthropogenic warming, help quantify the climate response to radiative forcing, and better characterize the range of natural variability. In North America, temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy data remain sparse, which limits the spatial and temporal extent of these reconstructions. Here we present an analysis of yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) growth in Washington State (USA) and its relationship to climate. Combining empirical statistical analysis with a process model of xylogenesis, we show that tree-ring chronologies from three high-elevation sites in the North Cascades are primarily controlled by temperature. We then use these chronologies to reconstruct summer temperatures over the period 1333 to 2015 CE, adding a new proxy to the North American network of temperature-sensitive trees. Comparison with an existing large-scale spatial gridded reconstruction suggests this species offers important local and regional information on past temperatures.

US Gulf Coast tropical cyclone precipitation influenced by volcanism and the North Atlantic subtropical high

Understanding the response of tropical cyclone precipitation to ongoing climate change is essential to determine associated flood risk. However, instrumental records are short-term and fail to capture the full range of variability in seasonal totals of precipitation from tropical cyclones. Here we present a 473-year-long tree-ring proxy record comprised of longleaf pine from excavated coffins, a historical house, remnant stumps, and living trees in southern Mississippi, USA. We use cross-dating dendrochronological analyses calibrated with instrumental records to reconstruct tropical cyclone precipitation stretching back to 1540 CE. We compare this record to potential climatic controls of interannual and multidecadal tropical cyclone precipitation variability along the Gulf Coast. We find that tropical cyclone precipitation declined significantly in the two years following large Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions and is influenced by the behavior of the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system. Additionally, we suggest that tropical cyclone precipitation variability is significantly, albeit weakly, related to Atlantic multidecadal variability. Finally, we suggest that we need to establish a network for reconstructing precipitation from tropical cyclones in the Southeast USA if we want to capture regional tropical cyclone behavior and associated flood risks.

A Tree Ring Proxy Evaluation of Declining Causes in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold in Northeastern Romania

Drought-induced dieback has been extensively studied in various forests habitats. We used a retrospective tree ring width (TRW), basal area increment (BAI), oxygen isotope ratios in tree ring cellulose (δ18OTR) and carbon isotope ratios in tree ring cellulose (δ13CTR) to assess causes in declining Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold. The climate data analysis indicates a significant increased trend occurred after 1980 in minimum, mean and maximum temperature and a reduced amount of precipitation compared to the 1920–1980-time scale. According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, we found two extreme drought years (1946 and 2000) and three years with severe drought (1990, 2003 and 2012). One-way ANOVA indicated no significant difference between P. nigra and P sylvestris tree ring width, basal area increment, but a considerable difference between δ13CTR and δ18OTR. Basal area increment evaluated the climate-growth relationship most accurately, comparing to δ18OTR and δ13CTR, which explained the influences of environmental factors in tree rings formation. The δ13CTR was mainly negatively correlated with high temperatures from April-August current growing seasons. The negative correlation between δ13CTR and NDVI indices (June, August) shows a decreased carbon uptake induced by drought from summer to early autumn. The low δ18OTR signal was associated with a complex of factors, including the strong influence of heavy precipitation occurring in the growing season and a weak reaction of declined trees to resources. Species-specific responses to drought in 1990, 2003 and 2012 indicated P. sylvestris as more sensitive to drought whit higher demand for water supply in the optimal compared with P. nigra. Weak and unstable correlations in time with increasing/decreasing values in drought periods were obtained more accurately using δ18OTR compared to δ13CTR. The species-specific resilience response to drought years showed a weak resilience and resistance in P. sylvestris occurred more evident after the 2012 event compared to less sensitive P. nigra trees. Decision-makers can use presented results to reinforce specific management plans capable of protecting and changing local compositions where is the case with species more resistant to drouth.

A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation

The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.

Assimilating an expanded tree ring dataset to reconstruct the millennial air temperature fields for the Northern Hemisphere

AbstractThe spatiotemporal variations of the climate of the last millennium provide the context for understanding the recent climate. However, there are few 1000‐year‐long spatiotemporally continuous climate reconstructions at hemispheric to global scales. Here, a millennial, spatiotemporally continuous and annually resolved air temperature dataset for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was reconstructed using paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) approach based on an expanded tree ring proxy dataset and artificial neural network‐based proxy system models. Verifications show the PDA‐based reconstruction agrees well with instrumental temperature, previous proxy‐based reconstructions and the Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis version 2 (LMRv2) dataset in space and time domains. Since the PDA‐based reconstruction is spatiotemporally continuous fields without missing value over the whole NH, which is a distinct advantage of the PDA‐based reconstruction over other proxy‐based NH‐averaged temperature reconstructions, we focussed on analysing the spatial variations of the NH temperature during the last millennium, for example, the primary modes of temperature variabilities and the spatial variabilities of the NH temperature in three typical climatic epochs of the millennium. Results show that the first‐leading mode (explained variance of 72.50%) of the NH temperature variability is a spatially consistent mode, while the second‐leading mode (explained variance of 10.60%) exhibits a different pattern that is different from the first‐leading empirical orthogonal function mode, particularly in the Arctic, which shows a dipole structure anomaly. The 20th century was the warmest, with 94.17% of the NH displaying positive anomalies. The 11th century was the second warmest century in the record, with 70.26% of the NH showing a positive anomaly. The 19th century was the coldest, with negative anomalies covering 86.97% of the NH. Northwest North America and the Northern Europe‐Barents Sea are two distinctly anomalous centres during these three centuries. Overall, the reconstructed air temperatures provide a new and reliable dataset for studying the millennial NH temperature variations.