Tree rings in Tsuga dumosa reveal increasing drought variability in subtropical southwest China over the past two centuries

Abstract

High-resolution palaeoclimate proxy records have been lacking for the subtropical region of southwest China. To gain insights into hydroclimate variability in central Yunnan Province, we constructed a tree ring-width chronology of Tsuga dumosa from the Wuliang Mountain area. Correlation analysis shows that moisture availability is predominantly the limiting factor on radial growth, particularly during the spring-early summer season. Using a well-calibrated regression model (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), we reconstructed the March–June Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the period from 1826 to 2020 CE. Eleven extreme drought years (1860, 1897, 1958, 1960, 1979, 1984, 1987, 2006, 2010, 2013, and 2019) were identified, with most of them confirmed by historical evidence. The reconstruction series shows inter-annual to inter-decadal variations and an increasing occurrence of severe dry or wet events in the recent past, particularly during the last 50 years. Our drought reconstruction series shows high frequency cycle of 2–8 years. Spatial correlations indicate that our drought reconstruction captures hydrological signals over a larger area. In line with this, the reconstructed dry periods exhibit broad consistency with other tree-ring based drought reconstructions conducted in nearby regions. Our findings demonstrate the potential of tree-ring proxies for hydroclimate reconstruction in the subtropical areas of southwest China and provide crucial information for evaluating long-term climate change in this region.