Objective: This study was developed with the goal of exploring the efficacy of orthokeratology (OK) as an approach to controlling axial length (AL) growth and identifying factors predictive of the long-term efficacy of this approach. Methods: This was a retrospective study that enrolled 157 myopic children 7 to 15 years of age undergoing OK correction for over 3 years. The short- and long-term effectiveness of this approach at 1 and 3 years post-OK correction, respectively, was assessed. All participants were classified into two groups based on whether they exhibited good or poor long-term efficacy outcomes. Measurements of changes in AL were made at baseline and at 1 and 3 years post-OK. Univariate analyses and binary logistic regression approaches were used to evaluate baseline age, baseline spherical equivalent refraction, baseline keratometry (K) values of flat and steep meridians, and short-term effectiveness with the goal of identifying predictors of long-term efficacy. Results: Univariate analyses led to the identification of significant differences in baseline age, baseline spherical equivalent refraction, baseline AL, and short-term efficacy between these two groups (P<0.05), whereas gender, baseline flat K, and baseline steep K did not differ significantly (P>0.05). In binary logistic regression analyses, baseline AL (P=0.017) and short-term efficacy (P<0.001) were both found to significantly influence long-term efficacy. Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated that short-term efficacy offered an area under the curve value >0.8, consistent with its highly accurate performance as a predictor of long-term efficacy. Conclusion: These results suggest that short-term efficacy outcomes can feasibly be used to predict the long-term effectiveness of OK correction in children. In patients exhibiting poor short-term efficacy, timely replacement or the incorporation of additional treatment modalities may aid efforts to better control the progression of myopia.
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