_HfE forecaster of interest rates is one of the minor economic prophets. He lives in the shadow of the major prophets of production, income, and employment. For a while he was a victim of economic obsolescence: interest rates became the vassal of central banking and treasury policy. The interest-rate forecaster was reduced to being a mind reader of the policy-forming officials. This cloud has lifted, but his role is still circumscribed by the larger areas of general economic developments, public policy, and international politics. In narrowly technical terms, interestrate forecasting is a subcategory of price forecasting. It uses the paraphernalia of supply-and-demand analysis; it leans on analysis of the market process and market characteristics. But it differs from other kinds of price forecasting, indeed from all other varieties of forecasting, in that the nature of the object being priced has been obscured by a variety of conflicting theoretical formulations. Interest has been most commonly and simply defined as the price for borrowed money. Economic analysis shows that the institution of borrowing and lending through the means of money is in reality a process of transferring the command of real economic wealth from those who own it to those who can use it more profitably or pleasurably. Had money been nothing but a passive and neutral agent in this process of transfer, interest as a price would be relatively simple conceptually. Money, however, has been neither passive nor neutral. The system of money generation (and extinction) and the habits of liquidity and money-holding have intervened to give interest rates an added dimension of complexity. When it is hard to determine what economic factors cause interest rates to be what they are, it is doubly difficult to frame a logical system for estimating what they will be in the future. The obstacles to systematic forecasting of interest rates are such that no welldeveloped and recognized methodology prevails.' The interest-rate theory underlying most forecasting is intuitive, the methods sketchy, and the product often subjective. Furthermore, the published and identifiable forecasts of interest-rate changes reveal a sobering proportion of errors and misjudgments.2
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