Travel Cost Model Research Articles

Understanding Urban Tourism Attractiveness

The purpose of this investigation is to analyze to what extent a museum may be regarded as a potential driver for urban tourism. Via a travel cost model, the likelihood to revisit South Tyrol’s Museum of Archaeology (the Ötzi museum), in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano (Italy), is estimated and the factors that influence visitors’ experience, motivations, and their intention to revisit the museum are analyzed. To this aim, the number of actual visits to the museum is used as an economic indicator of museum attractiveness. The findings show that the museum has an important educative role in addition to being an economic earner for the city. Nevertheless, entrance fees discourage repeat visit, particularly for those on a low income. The findings also provide a tool to manage urban heritage resources and plan future urban developments around the Ötzi museum.

A count data travel cost model of theatre demand using aggregate theatre booking data

Theatres have a market bounded by the distance theatregoers are willing to travel to see shows and productions. This paper uses count data models (Poisson regression and negative binomial models) to investigate the determinants of attendance at a regional theatre in England. It uses booking data for 29 theatrical productions supplied by the theatre, and matches this, using postcodes, with census socio-economic information on household characteristics. Socio-economic and travel cost (distance) are used to explore theatregoers attendance, and also to estimate consumer surplus, and to assess whether consumer surplus on ticket sales exceeds the annual government subsidy to the theatre.

Measuring the economic value of nature and national parks: indirect valuations from travel cost method and tourism satellite accounts

This paper presents an approach to measuring nature-based economic values using both simple travel cost methodology and tourism satellite accounts estimating different areas under the demand curves. These methods were applied in a region in Norway where tourism has been founded predominantly on pristine alpine nature over the past 50 years and successively protected as six national parks. A survey of tourists enabled estimation of a simple individual travel cost model yielding the consumer surplus of tourists attributable to the attractiveness of the nature of the area. The tourists provided information on their main destination, trip frequency, knowledge and use of the park, and the impact of the national park tags. The survey information was also used in the tourism satellite accounts for the region, combined with information from accommodation providers and official statistics.

The Impact of Chronic Wasting Disease and its Management on Hunter Perceptions, Opinions, and Behaviors in Alberta, Canada

The goal of this analysis was to identify changes in hunting behavior, satisfaction, and perceptions of risk in the presence of chronic wasting disease (CWD). Hunters completed an Internet survey containing direct questions regarding the impacts of CWD and gathering information about real and hypothetical hunting trips. Overall, hunters were satisfied with CWD management, and although certain behaviors were altered, the perceived risk by hunters did not seem to be high. A travel cost model was used to determine whether differences in trip frequencies might be observed in response to CWD. The largest variation in trips was between urban and rural hunters, with urban hunters being less averse to traveling but more averse to CWD and the management program of extra tags.

Recreational benefits from a marine protected area: A travel cost analysis of Lundy

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been proposed in many countries as a means of conserving parts of the marine environment. In some cases, MPAs may also confer recreational benefits. In this paper, a travel cost model is used to estimate the non-market recreational benefits arising from the Lundy Island Marine Nature Reserve (MNR). The estimated mean consumer surplus for visiting Lundy was found to range from £359 to £574 per trip. The designation of No Take Zone (NTZ) has also contributed to higher consumer surplus values. This result provides a strong economic justification for the designation of MPAs for recreational as well as conservation purposes.

How Well Do Travel Cost Models Measure Competition Among Hospitals?

Health plans create competition among hospitals by threatening to “steer” patients to preferred facilities. Mergers can reduce this competition and economists have begun using travel cost demand models to predict their effects. In this paper, we document an anomaly in estimation: for any plausible estimate of the opportunity cost of time, the price of hospital service is several orders of magnitude larger than the estimated value that patients place on the service. This anomaly raises questions about how well travel cost models measure demand for medical care, competition among hospitals, and the increase in bargaining power created by merger.

Measuring the Social Recreation Per-Day Net Benefit of the Wildlife Amenities of a National Park: A Count-Data Travel-Cost Approach

In this article, we apply count-data travel-cost methods to a truncated sample of visitors to estimate the Peneda-Gerês National Park (PGNP) average consumer surplus (CS) for each day of visit. The measurement of recreation demand is highly specific because it is calculated by number of days of stay per visit. We therefore propose the application of altered truncated count-data models or truncated count-data models on grouped data to estimate a single, on-site individual recreation demand function, with the price (cost) of each recreation day per trip equal to out-of-pocket and time travel plus out-of-pocket and on-site time costs. We further check the sensitivity of coefficient estimations to alternative models and analyse the welfare measure precision by using the delta and simulation methods by Creel and Loomis. With simulated limits, CS is estimated to be <euro>194 (range <euro>116 to <euro>448). This information is of use in the quest to improve government policy and PNPG management and conservation as well as promote nature-based tourism. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the average recreation net benefits of each day of stay generated by a national park by using truncated altered and truncated grouped count-data travel-cost models based on observing the individual number of days of stay.

The Opportunity Cost Of Travel Time In Recreational Fishing Demand Analysis: A South African Case Study

The value individuals place on travel time to recreation sites constitutes an important component of the total travel cost variable in recreational demand analysis. Failure to include the opportunity cost of travel time in travel cost models will lead to an underestimate of the demand and benefit valuation of recreation sites. Using a count data model, this paper calculates the opportunity cost of travel time by inferring it within a recreational fishing demand model estimated. The paper shows that the estimated opportunity cost of travel time for recreational fishing in South Africa is 28 percent of the wage rate or R118,72 per hour. This is somewhat less than the fraction of the wage rate, namely 33 percent, most often employed in TCM studies.

Impacts of boating trip limitations on the recreational value of the Spreewald wetland: a pooled revealed/contingent behaviour application of the travel cost method

Few studies have been conducted to date on the importance of water availability (in-stream flows, water levels) for demand for a recreation site in Europe. In this paper we combine data on actual trips taken to a site (revealed behaviour) with data on anticipated trips that are stated as a response to hypothetical scenarios constructed for survey respondents (contingent behaviour). We combine these two sources of data in order to assess whether, and to what extent, the maintenance of minimum in-stream flows for boating matter in demand for trips to a wetland recreation site. The data from the on-site survey are used to estimate an aggregate count data travel cost model. Our findings indicate that variations in navigability significantly affect demand and associated welfare measures.

A Spatial Microsimulation Approach to Estimating the Total Number and Economic Value of Site Visits in Travel Cost Modelling

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for simultaneously estimating the total number and aggregate value of recreation-related visits to a small-scale community forest in the West of Ireland. Spatially-referenced simulated individuals from a spatial microsimulation model for Ireland (SMILE) who reside within the geographic extent of the market for recreation at the forest are identified using GIS techniques. A travel cost model, adjusted for truncation and endogenous stratification, is estimated for a sample of visitors to the site and transferred across each individual in the simulated population. The SMILE model and GIS-based network analysis are used to derive the appropriate values for the explanatory variables in the transfer. Each simulated individual’s latent demand for visits to the site is predicted and summed, in order to derive aggregate visits and amenity value estimates. The paper makes two principal contributions. First, it sets out a new approach for modelling the geographic extent of the market for recreation using survey data on reported travel distances and GIS techniques. Second, it develops a new simulation-based modelling approach for predicting total site visits at non-priced open-access recreation sites.

Using spatial microsimulation to account for demographic and spatial factors in environmental benefit transfer

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for estimating total visitor numbers and amenity values for prospective non-priced open-access outdoor recreation sites. To begin, the geographic extent of the market for recreation at a policy site is estimated using data from a similar study site. The population residing within this geographic area is simulated using a spatial microsimulation model and GIS techniques and an individual-level ‘visitor arrival function’ is then transferred across this simulated population. This allows the latent demand for visits to the policy site by each simulated individual to be predicted and summed, providing an estimate of the total potential demand for recreation at the site. Combining this with an economic value measure of a visit provides an estimate of the potential amenity value of the policy site. The approach is applied to Moyode Wood, a small-scale forest in the West of Ireland, and estimates the potential total economic value of recreation at €0.4 million for the site. The research represents the first time that spatial microsimulation has been used in environmental benefit transfer and shows how it can be used to control for differences in demographic and spatial factors between study and policy sites. It also demonstrates how individual-level single-site travel cost models estimated using on-site survey data can be used to predict demand at alternative policy sites.

Valuing Recreation in the Coorong, Australia, with Travel Cost and Contingent Behaviour Models*

The study reported in this article is focused on estimating recreational values associated with the Coorong in South Australia. Count data models extended with contingent behaviour (CB) questions have been used to assess recreation values as well as sensitivity to changed access conditions. A recreation value of $111 per adult visitor per day has been estimated, which can be extrapolated to a consumer surplus of approximately $30.5 million per annum at the site. Random coefficient negative binomial models have been applied to the CB data, with results indicating that a marginal value of at least $17.20 per person per trip is attached to each 1 per cent change in access.

The Effects of Place Attachment, Hypothetical Site Modifications and Use Levels on Recreation Behavior

This study integrates place attachment dimensions into a travel cost model utilizing stated preferences for various hypothetical scenarios involving site development and changes to current use levels at a Bureau of Land Management Special Recreation Management Area. We examine changes in intended behavior contingent on hypothetical scenarios and varying levels of place identity and dependence. Results suggest trip behavior to the area will either remain the same or decline in frequency given each of the hypothetical scenarios. The analysis also revealed visitors' level of place identity was significantly related to intended trip behavior while place dependence was not. These findings reveal travel cost modeling approach can incorporate both stated preferences and psychometric scaling to provide useful information for resource managers.

Valuing Ecological Restoration and Recreational Benefits in a Mountain Protected Area: The Case of Los Nevados National Park, Colombia

This study uses travel cost and contingent valuation methods to derive estimates of economic value for recreational use of Los Nevados National Park in the Andean region of Colombia. Park visitors were surveyed regarding their travel costs and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for ecological restoration of areas affected by wildfires in 2006. The travel cost data was analyzed using a zonal travel cost model. The contingent valuation experiment used a dichotomous choice format followed by an open-ended question asking for their maximum WTP for restoration. Consumer surplus for recreational use of the park was found to be large relative to the budget of the Colombian Parks Service, which justifies continued funding. Respondents’ WTP for ecological restoration was modest and possibly influenced by bequest values, but unaffected by potential information bias.

Estimating the recreational value of freshwater inflows into the Klein and Kwelera estuaries: An application of the zonal travel cost method

This study estimates the change in aggregate consumer surplus associated with increased freshwater supply into two South African estuaries, namely, the Klein and the Kwelera. The estimation entailed the application of a contingent behaviour, single-site Clawson-Knetsch travel cost model. The value estimates derived reflect the benefit of improved freshwater supplies into the estuaries in question over the status quo. In a survey, a questionnaire was administered face-to-face to 240 households at the Klein Estuary and 231 households at the Kwelera Estuary during the period between December 2005 and April 2006. It was deduced that in 2006 the marginal recreational value of freshwater inflow into the Klein Estuary was 5.7 cents/m3 (ZAR0.057/m3) and into the Kwelera Estuary 1.1 cents/m3 (ZAR0.011/m3).Keywords: estuary, water abstraction, revealed preference, single-site, travel cost method, freshwater inflows

Willingness‐to‐pay for steelhead trout fishing: Implications of two‐step consumer decisions with short‐run endowments

Choice of the appropriate model of economic behavior is important for the measurement of nonmarket demand and benefits. Several travel cost demand model specifications are currently in use. Uncertainty exists over the efficacy of these approaches, and more theoretical and empirical study is warranted. Thus travel cost models with differing assumptions about labor markets and consumer behavior were applied to estimate the demand for steelhead trout sportfishing on an unimpounded reach of the Snake River near Lewiston, Idaho. We introduce a modified two‐step decision model that incorporates endogenous time value using a latent index variable approach. The focus is on the importance of distinguishing between short‐run and long‐run consumer decision variables in a consistent manner. A modified Barnett two‐step decision model was found superior to other models tested.

Using revealed and stated preference data to estimate the scope and access benefits associated with cave diving

In a single-site travel cost model framework, revealed and stated preference data are jointly estimated to provide the first use-value estimate associated with recreational cave diving. Focusing on one of Florida's first magnitude springs, we estimate average per-person per-trip use values of approximately $155, generating annual cave diving use values in the region of $1075. Further, in an investigation of potential site quality changes, we find that divers are sensitive to scope effects with an additional cave system increasing annual per-person use values by approximately $100, while improved access yields an additional $50 in per-person annual consumer surplus. Finally, three additional model specifications are estimated and indicate that divers use different travel cost preferences when assessing their revealed and stated preference trip counts but a single preference structure to evaluate site quality changes.

Recreational Demand for Equestrian Trail-Riding

Using data collected from a combination of on-site and on-line surveys, this study examines recreational demand for equestrian trail-riding in Kentucky. A truncated, negative binomial regression is applied to analyze individuals’ visitation behavior consistent with a travel cost model. Results suggest that distance is the most significant determinant of average annual visits to a particular site. Various trail site characteristics, such as trail length, scenic overlooks, and trail markers, affect the number of visits an individual takes. Geographic information system (GIS) analysis permits the identification of equestrian population centers. Information obtained from this study offers a decision base for policymakers to use to manage existing equestrian trails and locate new ones.

COMBINED MODAL SPLIT AND ASSIGNMENT MODEL FOR THE MULTIMODAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK OF THE ECONOMIC CIRCLE IN CHINA

Economic circles have been formed and developing in China. An economic circle consists of more than one closely adjoining central cities and their influence zones. It is always the major engine for the development of one country's economy and even for the world economy. A combined modal split and assignment model with deterministic travel demand is proposed for modelling passengers’ choices of intercity bus and train which are two main competing modes in the multimodal transportation network of the economic circle. The generalized travel cost model of highway and railway are used incorporating travel time, ticket fare and passenger's discomfort. On the highway network, the interactions of private vehicles and intercity buses are asymmetric. Thus, a variational inequality formulation is proposed to describe the combined model. The streamlined diagonalization algorithm is presented to solve the combined model. The multimodal transportation network based on Yangtze River Delta economic circle is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show the efficiency of the proposed model.

Estimating the private benefits of vaccination against cholera in Beira, Mozambique: A travel cost approach

This paper reports the results of the first study that estimates households' private demand for cholera vaccines using the travel cost method. We take advantage of an unusual natural experiment. In January 2004, more than 41,000 residents from various locations in Beira, Mozambique received two doses of oral cholera vaccine free of charge during the first vaccination trial to test its effectiveness in an endemic cholera zone of Africa. About 30,000 people participated from outside the target zone, resulting in long queues and an average waiting time of about 85 min per dose. We estimated travel cost models of the revealed demand for cholera vaccines among households informed of the trial using information collected in in-person interviews conducted during the summer of 2005. To explore households' participation in the trial, we used standard and zero-inflated household count models for all household members and dichotomous choice models for the head of the household. Our analysis shows that the quantity of vaccines obtained by households and the likelihood of participation decreased as travel cost—in time and transport expenses—rose. Our best estimates of per capita willingness to pay for the two required doses of cholera vaccine are about 0.85 USD. These estimates are sensitive to the assumed value of time spent acquiring vaccines.