Transport Demand Models Research Articles

Valuation of users’ benefits in transport systems

Transport projects involve costs and benefits. Benefits to users appear in the form of more and/or better trips. Once the neoclassical idea of demand is accepted, the variation of utility levels underlie the measurement of benefits. In the evaluation process, benefits have to be compared with costs, and this can be done converting utility into monetary units. This paper deals with the treatment of this problem, starting with the general relation among utility, demand and the various forms of consumers’ surplus, to move further into the particular forms that these relations take in the transport field. The rule‐of‐a‐half is followed from the intuitive initial justification to a strict (and general) analytical derivation. More rigorous forms of users’ surplus variation are then presented for fairly general cases, including both aggregate and disaggregate transport demand models, emphasizing the manner in which welfare measures are derived in each case. Discussion is centred around the comparative advantages and limitations of available approaches, searching for improvements in demand formulation and benefits measurement.

A Forecast Model of Aerial Transport Demand considering the Effects of Airline Routes, Flight Times and Exchange Rates

In proportion to the increasing demand of aerial transport, the countermeasures such as a foundation of new routes, an increase of flights to each route, an introduction of large-size aircrafts have been usually proposed to cope with it. All of these countermeasures bring an additional supply of seating capacity respectively. The effects of the correlation between increasing demand and increased seating capacity have not been taken into consideration explicitly in traditional forecast models for aerial transport demand.This study analyzes the effects of these three countermeasures on aerial transport demand respectively at Nagoya International Airport which is located in Nagoya Metropolital Area, where there is a growing tendency to construct an another big-scale international airport. It becomes clear that the foundation of new routes takes its effect no longer than one and half years but that an increase of flights keeps up its effect for many years.Then an effective forecast model, where the effects of those three countermeasures mentioned above are taken into consideration, is proposed for a project to develop the existing Nagoya International Airport.Based on the present tendency that the value of Japanese yen becomes higher and higher, the correlation between exchange rates and aerial transport demand is also examined for the inetrnational passengers at existing Nagoya International Airport by using Multiregression Analysis.Finally an algorithm to modify a forecasted demand value derived from any traditional demand model is proposed by considering the effects of the countermeasures taken up in this study.

外貿コンテナの国内流動に関する考察-II : 東日本地区の特性について

The containerized transportation was begun in the early years of 1960's, and its volume has been increasing much every year in proportion to the development of Japanese economy. At the present day, it has been obvious that the containerized transportation takes a very active part in cargo flows on the sea and in port, but that has been unknown at inland area. This study presents attempts to discuss the application methods of aggregate transportation demand models, with the object of having thrown light upon the present condition and quantifying the characteristics of the inland flows of containerized cargo. This study refers to the reports of the investigations made by Japan Container Association. The survey period was for two days in July 1983 and 1986. The objects of them were to improve the containerized cargoes transported by trucks at inland area. This paper shows the second analysis of this report which analyzed the characteristics of the area of East Japan.

A Disaggregate Model of Intercity Freight Transport Demand

One major issue arising out of early investigations of the National Transport Policy Study of South Africa focussed on the freight transport market and the need to measure impacts of potential transport policy changes in this market. In response to this need, a theoretically sound policy sensitive methodology was developed, capable of quantitatively evaluating the impacts of proposed policy changes.The purpose of this paper is to report on the development of this methodology as part of the transportation planning process. The full sequence of modelling up through prediction is illustrated: compilation of an extensive data base, estimation of a multinominal logit model of freight transport demand, the development of a forecasting package and prediction. It is shown that the forecasting package can be used to quantitatively measure the impacts of policy options. Using this methodology, final policy decisions can be made in a more rational way by better informed decision-makers. The methodology is currently being applied in South Africa.

Transport demand and users' benefits with fixed income: The goods/leisure trade off revisited

Usually accepted assumptions on the role of income in transport demand modelling are changed, in order to better account for the reality within developing countries. The usual specification of representative utility is shown to be inadequate and new forms are suggested. In particular, an expenditure rate is proposed to replace the wage rate which usually divides mode cost. Measures of both users' benefits and value of time are also shown to change. Some empirical results previously reported within developed countries are shown to be better explained under this new approach.

Dynamics of Household Driving Demand

A bstract-A statistical model of household automotive transportation demand is developed which nests the Koyck distributed lag model and four alternatives as special cases. These various specifications are tested with data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. For households who changed residence during the observation period 1973-1978, the Koyck model is rejected in favor of a model which allows price and income effects to vary freely for two years prior to settling into a geometric declining pattern. The maximum single year income impact, for these households, is in the year following the income change. Prices appear to have an initial negative impact on miles driven followed by a strong positive impact in the third year. This latter effect may be related to the acquisition of a more fuel efficient vehicle stock.

Public transport demand models and elasticity measures: An overview of recent British experience

The paper reports and considers studies of demand analysis presented at a one day conference held in 1984 at the University of Oxford. Practical experience is emphasised, especially in the larger cities, where the main themes of investigation are: aggregate studies of demand; disaggregate elasticity measures; alternative demand model specifications; and the joint issues of marketing, fare policies and network integration. Studies ranged from detailed regression models to identify factors influencing demand to simple manual extrapolations of trends. Model specifications are discussed with respect to their treatment of journey substitutes and the measurement of associated cross elasticities and also the form of the relation between demand and travel attributes. The application of suitable methods and models in a range of planning contexts is limited by the availability of appropriate (stratified) data sets and the usual compromise of practice.

A nested logit model of travel mode to work and auto ownership

Estimating the demand for urban passenger travel is very useful in transport planning. This study estimates a joint model of choice for both auto ownership and travel mode to work in Karachi, Pakistan. The model used for analysis is based on stochastic utility maximization and is estimated utilizing nested logit techniques. The purpose of the study is to measure the impact of various policy changes on welfare. The model reveals that the decision to own a car is made simultaneously with the decision regarding mode of travel to work. However, the study shows that had this simultaneity been ignored, the loss in terms of bias in the estimated coefficients would not have been large. The model has several advantages over conventional transport demand models. It is estimated using a small household sample; it is behavioral and responsive to more important policy instruments available to a planner; it allows one to make welfare comparisons between various policy regimes; and it enables one to calculate the effect of a policy change or change in the attributes of various modes on the demand for each mode and auto ownership.

The Influence of Environmental Factors on Daily Behaviour

The question of the extent to which the concrete physical environment allows, causes, or even forces certain forms of behaviour to occur has been excluded from social sciences literature for a long time. More recent studies from environmental psychology show that the built environment, filtered by subjective perceptions, very probably influences the experience and actions of individuals. Town planning and transport planning is orientated towards the needs, demands, or simply the observed behaviour of social groups, segments of the population, and target groups of individuals. However, at this level the evidence about whether a spatiospecific determinant should be added to the sociodemographic, sociocultural, or socioeconomic determinants is very inconclusive. This paper investigates the influence of certain types of area on behaviour, and uses about 70000 weekday records at the level of differentiated groups of people. Everyday behaviour of the groups is quantified by their time budgets and daily programmes with broad groupings of out-of-house activities as well as various indicators of transport mobility. This study shows that with given characteristics of the individual and his household a series of behavioural parameters does not vary in space and thus these parameters can be used as input for behaviourally orientated transport demand models and transferred from one planning area to another.

Simplified transport models based on traffic counts

Having accepted the need for the development of simpler and less cumbersome transport demand models, the paper concentrates on one possible line for simplification: estimation of trip matrices from link volume counts. Traffic counts are particularly attractive as a data basis for modelling because of their availability, low cost and nondisruptive character. It is first established that in normal conditions it may be possible to find more than one trip matrix which, when loaded onto a network, reproduces the observed link volumes. The paper then identifies three approaches to reduce this underspecification problem and produce a unique trip matrix consistent with the counts. The first approach consists of assuming that trip-making behaviour can be explained by a gravity model whose parameters can be calibrated from the traffic counts. Several forms of this gravity model have been put forward and they are discussed in Section 3. The second approach uses mathematical programming techniques associated to equilibrium assignment problems to estimate a trip matrix in congested areas. This method can also be supplemented by a special distribution model developed for small areas. The third approach relies on entropy and information theory considerations to estimate the most likely trip matrix consistent with the observed flows. A particular feature of this group is that they can include prior, perhaps outdated, information about the matrix.

Modelling the impact of alternative transport strategies upon social groups

In this paper, the application of a model representing the impact of interaction between transport costs and the location of housing, population, job employment, shopping and land is described. Two particular uses of the model are considered. Firstly, the effects of changing transport costs upon people of different social status in terms of money and time spent on travelling are examined and compared with results based upon the assumption that the location of population and employment are not responsive to changes in transport cost, as in the conventional transport demand model. Secondly, the effects of six land use‐transport policy sets are examined in terms of the impact upon urban morphology, and the opportunities and travel behaviour of the three social groups. The effects are also compared with the objectives of the strategies.

Freight transport demand revisited: A microeconomic view of multimodal, multicharacteristic service uncertainty and the demand for freight transport

This paper provides a unifying framework for micro-based models of freight transport demand. An expected utility of profits model is posed that clarifies the conditions under which a system of equations (continuous) regression model should be used as opposed to the conditions that make a quantal choice model appropriate. The model also indicates the nature of subjective data that is necessary for estimating demand. In general, the conditions that give rise to the appropriate use of a quantal choice model imply that the needed subjective information is completely contained in the subjective probability distributions on the service characteristics; the utility function itself is irrelevant.

Alternative transportation modes in an urban land use model: A general equilibrium approach

This paper presents and analyzes a general equilibrium transportation demand model. The model was applied to hypothetical cities with populations of 1 and 2 million. Data and coefficients for those cities were obtained from existing metropolitan areas of equivalent sizes. A subway system is found to be uneconomical in the hypothetical city with one million population and with an average population density of 4400 per square mile. However, it is found to be economical and desirable for the hypothetical city with two million population and with an average density of 6900 per square mile.

An Empirical Evaluation of Investigating Transportation Mode Attributes for Commodities

A number of transportation demand models have been formulated using the abstract mode concept. Unfortunately, most of these models use a priori economic theory to derive the variables used in the analysis. This study describes an empirical approach for the specification of mode attributes used by purchasers of transportation modes for the movement of commodities. Results reported from a study conducted on the Montreal-Toronto corridor in Canada suggest that a number of important variables have been neglected in models of carrier selection for freight.

Tree-building with complex cost structures ? A new algorithm for incorporation into transport demand models

This paper highlights some of the difficulties involved in the implementation of complex cost structures in the tree-building section of a transport demand model. The conventional tree-building algorithm is briefly described and is seen to be inadequate for the present purpose. A new algorithm is then presented which is able to implement complex cost structures properly. An example is given of the application of this algorithm to the building of tree in a public transport network. The performance of a computer program incorporating the new alrogrithm is evaluated against alternative methods of implementing complex cost structures. Some mention is then made of the vast range of potential uses for the new algorithm in the field of transport modelling and simulation.

Northeast Corridor Transportation Project: Structure and Operation of Model System

Recognition of the increasing magnitude and intensity of intercity transportation problems along the Northeastern seaboard of the U.S. and of the inadequacies of existing policies and programs in meeting these problems led in 1964 to the establishment of the Northeast Corridor Transportation Project (NECTP). In a deliberately experimental way, the Corridor Project was to be a comprehensive and systematic attempt at determining the intercity transportation facility requirements of one of the world’s major urbanized regions. A system of mathematical models has been developed by the NECTP which simulates the forces of passenger transportation supply and demand in the Corridor and which permits examination of both competitive interrelationships among transport modes and interactions between transportation and other sectors of the Corridor economy. A brief overview of this system of models is given, in which emphasis is placed on the structure of the transport supply and demand models and on the process by which equilibrium between supply and demand is reached within systems comprised of a mix of conventional and innovative transport modes.

Realization Of An IT Strategy For Planning ARailway Sector Under Transformation

Realization Of An IT Strategy For Planning ARailway Sector Under Transformation