Transport Infrastructure Investment Research Articles

Make friends, not money: How Chinese enterprises select transport infrastructure investment locations along the Belt and Road

Since the 2013 launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has long been recognized as one of the most complex international cooperation activities, a large proportion of the 90 billion in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the regions constituting the BRI, has flowed into the transport infrastructure sector. Chinese enterprises select transport infrastructure locations as an effective way to mitigate the uncertainties associated with institutional voids in host countries that undermine the functioning of market institutions and expose investors to additional risks. Theoretically, drawing on institutional theory, we propose that bilateral diplomatic activities between host countries and China can serve as an effective risk-reduction mechanism, while institutional distance and common land borders have significant moderating effects on this process. Empirically, based on a unique set of data manually collected from the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, our Poisson count regression and negative binomial regression analysis results generally confirm our hypotheses. Implications for both researchers and practitioners are discussed at the end of the paper.

Seaports and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis of EU Port Regions

Seaports are an important factor in regional economies since their operations create positive effects on the economy. The application of new technologies and innovations is important for the successful operation of seaports; their use reduces costs, facilitates business, increases transparency, and attracts new business entities. This paper analyses the impact of seaports on the growth of regional economies within the endogenous growth theory based on research and development (R&D) for a sample of 107 European Union’s (EU) port regions observed over the period from 2005 to 2015. The model was tested by using the two-step generalized method of moments. The results of the research indicate that seaports have a significant impact on the economic growth of the EU port regions, yet it is necessary to consider other factors that affect the growth of regional economies such as investments in R&D and human capital. These factors are often underestimated in relation to investment in transport infrastructure; therefore, the guidelines for partial diversion of funds might follow such a path.

Subcentres as Destinations: Job Decentralization, Polycentricity, and the Sustainability of Commuting Patterns in Canadian Metropolitan Areas, 1996–2016

Adopting more sustainable modes of transportation and shorter daily commutes remains a fundamental challenge in the struggle for the sustainable transition of cities. While past studies on the sustainability of commuting behaviours partly focused on the place of residence and how the characteristics of commuters or residential neighbourhoods impact sustainable travel, other studies looked at the place of employment to analyze these dynamics. In this study, we investigate the extent to which the recent phase of the rise of peripheral employment has promoted more sustainable travel behaviour, based on the hypothesis that polycentricity has recently favoured a better job–housing balance and co-location. We develop a general typology of employment centres, using Census microdata at fine spatial scale over the 1996–2016 period to observe commuting modes and distances by subcentre types for six major Canadian cities. Our results show that despite recent developments in planning practices—transit-oriented development, transport infrastructure, and changing travel behaviour, the emergence of peripheral subcentres promoted less sustainable commuting patterns in most Canadian metropolitan areas over the period. However, we find sustainable commuting emerging in subcentres where large public transport infrastructure investments have been made, such as in the case of Vancouver’s Millennium and Canada lines. Our study also shows that central business districts (CBDs) and downtown subcentres are becoming relatively more sustainable over the period, which confirms the positive effect of the back-to-the-city movement and changing behaviour toward active transportation in these locations.

Investigating spatial variability of CO2 emissions in heavy industry: Evidence from a geographically weighted regression model

China is now the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, and the government is under tremendous pressure to reduce CO2 emissions. The heavy industry sector is the largest contributor to the growth of CO2 emissions. Investigating the driving factors of this industry's CO2 emissions has important practical value. This paper applies the geographically weighted regression model to survey this industry's CO2 emissions. Empirical results show that urbanization exerts a heterogeneous impact on CO2 emissions across provinces and regions. This is mainly due to the differences in urban real estate and transportation infrastructure investments. Economic growth drives CO2 emissions, and this effect varies significantly by region and province on account of the differences in fixed-asset investment. It is more reasonable for local governments to develop emerging economies based on their specific conditions. Energy efficiency has the highest impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region, because of the differences in R&D personnel investment and the number of patents granted. The energy consumption structure has the largest impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region since it consumes more coal. Environmental regulations have a greater impact on CO2 emissions in the western region due to the differences in investment for industrial pollution control.

Public-Private Partnership and Transport Infrastructure Investment Efficiency: Evidence from Countries along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

Chen, B. and Guo, X., 2020. Public-private partnership and transport infrastructure investment efficiency: Evidence from countries along the 21st-century maritime silk road. In: Li, L. and Huang, X. (eds.), Sustainable Development in Coastal Regions: A Perspective of Environment, Economy, and Technology. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 112, pp. 269-274. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative blazes a new path for countries to cooperate for mutual benefits, and transport infrastructure has become the main battlefield for investment. With data from 2000 to 2017, the research adopts Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) to evaluate transport infrastructure investment efficiency of 20 countries along the route. The results show that the average investment efficiency is 0.552 which is in the state of inefficiency, exposing the problems of efficiency loss and resource waste, but still, a yearly increasing trend is evident. The investment efficiency of the developed countries is notably higher, revealing remarkable regional discrepancy and imbalance of development. The research also reveals the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) and the Initiative's positive effect on investment efficiency by empirical examinations. PPP has helped improve investment efficiency overall but PPP in different transport sectors has heterogeneous effect that road and port PPP can significantly promote investment efficiency. The Initiative has also boosted investment efficiency along the route, especially for developing countries. All this proves the superiority and necessity of PPP and the far-reaching significance of this valuable initiative for the sustainable development of all countries.

Modal Choice Preferences in Inland Container Transport in Poland

Purpose: As part of this paper, three research goals were set. The first one concerns the identification of factors influencing the modal choice to carry intermodal transport units by inland transport. The second goal is related to determining what conditions would have to exist for a given operator to agree to shift the cargo from road to rail transport as part of the modal shift concept. The third goal is to specify the influence of COVID-19 on the modal choice. Design/Methodology/Approach: Earlier studies have confirmed the difficulty in determining modal choice preferences due to their complexity. The complexity of the problem makes the use of quantitative methods ineffective. On the basis of the qualitative research conducted with the use of the in-depth semi structured interview, the authors identified the factors influencing the modal choice, at the same time defining the conditions that would have to be met in order to encourage cargo operators to make greater use of rail transport. Findings: The conducted research study indicated differences in the factors determining the choice of transport modes, mainly depending on the size of the surveyed company. The above-mentioned factors in relation to the entire study group included the time and cost of transport, as well as the availability and quality of transport infrastructure. The surveyed enterprises agreed that the factors that would have to occur to increase the use of rail transport included: increasing the number of reloading points at railway connections and increasing the timeliness of transport. Practical Implications: The results of the research can be used by decision-makers in formulating the directions of development of the transport system, and the entities responsible for the implementation of specific transport infrastructure investments, covering both linear and nodal elements. Originality/Value: The added value of this article is predicated on original research related to the determination of the premises for the selection of the transport mode in freight container transport in Poland. Requirements that could be a stimulus for implementing the modal shift idea in Polish companies. The authors confronted the research results achieved with the current scientific knowledge in this area, in addition, they also raised the topic of the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on modal choice.

Socio-economic impacts of transport infrastructure investment in Uganda: Insight from frontloading expenditure on Uganda's urban roads and highways

BackgroundThe relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth has remained one of the most striking expanses from the perspectives of economists, researchers as well as policy makers. This paper therefore has examined the impact of road transport infrastructure investment on Uganda's economic performance and also quantified the economic costs associated with inefficient urban road transport infrastructure network for the case of Uganda. The paper utilizes a rich econometric methodology involving the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to estimate the impact of road transport infrastructure and economic growth as well as traffic counts of travel East bound (EB) and West Bound (WB) for the major roads leading to Kampala Capital City to estimate the generalized cost of travel as the city represents more than 70% of the total national vehicle traffic/population. The quantification of gains and costs provided a benchmark to inform further policy processes, planning, and feasibility studies. ResultsThe ARDL bound test results confirmed the existence cointegration of variables although the variables were integrated of different orders. The results of empirical ARDL indicated that investment in road transport infrastructure has both short and long run significant impact on economic growth of Uganda. In the long run, the study finds that investment in road transport infrastructure has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. But in the short run, the impact is actually negative. The paper finds that, a 1 percentage point increase in investment in road transport infrastructure increases economic growth by 0.062 percentage points in the long run. On the other hand, a 1 percentage point increase in investment in road transport infrastructure reduces economic growth in the 1st year of the increase in the expenditure by 0.089 percentage points but (Gross Domestic Product) GDP increases by 7.5 percentage points in the second year. This implies that, the impact of road transport infrastructure investment on economic growth occurs with lags for the case of Uganda. Evidence also justifies presence of significant economic benefits due to massive investments in the urban transport infrastructure network through express highways and associated roads especially within the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area, municipal authorities and future transport planning for new cities. ConclusionThe main conclusion of this paper is that, with the current state of traffic flow, the country loses about 6.7% of its GDP due to traffic congestion annually. Therefore, projects such as; Kampala flyover project, Entebbe Express Highway, Southern Bypass, Northern Bypass, Kampala Bombo Express Highway, Kampala Jinja Express Highway and Kibuye Mpigi Express highway together with associated urban roads improvements that are planned for seamless flow of traffic within the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) are highly justified. These projects should be prioritized, fast-tracked and developed in a concurrent manner to realize the intended results. Further, the negative short run impact of infrastructure spending on growth implies the need to rebalance public spending to also prioritize social sectors.

Make Cloud Out of Air: The Allocation of Infrastructure Management Responsibilities and Regional Economic Development

Transportation infrastructure promotes regional economic development. Previous research mainly focuses on the construction of infrastructure, and the maintenance and operation of infrastructure to a large extent is ignored. However, infrastructure is a kind of capital that delivers the flow of service for the whole economy. To fully exploit transportation infrastructure to raise economic development, it is important to utilize the local information and improve the operational efficiency of infrastructure.In 2003, due to the substantial fiscal burden, Civil Aviation Administration of China decided to transfer the ownership and management responsibilities of almost all existing airports, except the Beijing Capital Airport and the airports in Tibet, to the provincial governments. This reform effectively reduced the distance to monitor the agent, and was expected to improve the operational efficiency of airports. This paper studies the causal impact of this reform on regional economic development. We employ a triple difference estimation to evaluate the impact of this reform on city-level total factor productivities（TFP）. In particular, we consider the variation in three dimensions: time, whether a city has an airport, and the reliance on air-travel, defined by the ratio of firms in air-travel-related industries to total number of firms in a city. It is shown that after the reform, the cities with airports significantly increased the TFP by 9.4%. Moreover, the cities with airports and higher reliance on air-travel-related industries enjoyed an additional 3.1% increase in TFP. A variety of robustness checks and placebo tests confirm the causal impact. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the benefits of airport localization reform mainly leave to the Eastern and Central Area. Further analysis suggests that the localization reform raises the complementary transportation infrastructure investment, and boosts the export.This research indicates that the management of transportation infrastructure should consider the incentives and information of different agents, and empower the local government to match the rights with responsibilities and interests. This would substantially improve the efficiency of infrastructure, and fully integrate the infrastructure into the regional economy.

The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan

Within the context of large investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, the investigation of the effect of transport infrastructure investments on economic growth is highly relevant for Pakistan. We analyse this relationship applying vector error correction models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analyses. We employ multiple model specifications to study the impact of private vs. public capital as well as physical capital stocks vs. monetary capital stocks on economic growth. In models including private capital stocks, we find support for the production function relation as causality goes from infrastructure to GDP. In models that include public capital stocks, causality goes from GDP to transport investments, thus favouring Wagner's law. Therefore we conclude that focusing on a good legal environment for private investors seems to be a good option for promoting growth in Pakistan.

Theoretical Model for Accident Prevention Based on Root Cause Analysis With Graph Theory.

IntroductionDespite huge investments in new technology and transportation infrastructure, terrible accidents still remain a reality of traffic.MethodsSevere traffic accidents were analyzed from four prevailing modes of today's transportations: sea, air, railway, and road. Main root causes of all four accidents were defined with implementation of the approach, based on Flanagan's critical incident technique. In accordance with Molan's Availability Humanization model (AH model), possible preventive or humanization interventions were defined with the focus on technology, environment, organization, and human factors.ResultsAccording to our analyses, there are significant similarities between accidents. Root causes of accidents, human behavioral patterns, and possible humanization measures were presented with rooted graphs. It is possible to create a generalized model graph, which is similar to rooted graphs, for identification of possible humanization measures, intended to prevent similar accidents in the future. Majority of proposed humanization interventions are focused on organization. Organizational interventions are effective in assurance of adequate and safe behavior.ConclusionsFormalization of root cause analysis with rooted graphs in a model offers possibility for implementation of presented methods in analysis of particular events. Implementation of proposed humanization measures in a particular analyzed situation is the basis for creation of safety culture.

An Australian perspective on real-life cost-benefit analysis and assessment frameworks for transport infrastructure investments

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is the most commonly used economic assessment tool for transport infrastructure investments. There are radically different approaches to its use across the world, highlighting the need for local research. While CBA is extensively reported on in many countries, an Australian perspective is less commonly found. This study aims to provide an Australian perspective on the use and efficiency of CBA in transport infrastructure investment assessments. It examines the guidelines used in practice and the CBA of real-life transport projects in relation to the costs and benefits considered in CBA and the CBA as a tool to inform investment decision making. This study identified the implications for wider CBA use, including the practical issues that should be addressed in guidelines and the challenges of implementing CBA outcomes in investment decision making. Improving CBA practices and assessments of transport infrastructure investments contributes to ensuring that investment decision making is well-informed.

Interpretable machine-learning models for estimating trip purpose in smart card data

Investigating trip purposes of transit passengers is crucial in assessing current urban transportation systems and prioritising investments in the public transportation infrastructure. Smart card data provide day-to-day information on passengers’ boardings and alightings, but the lack of information on trip purposes leads to restrictions on the use of these data. This paper focuses on estimating trip purposes of transit passengers in smart card data, using a machine-learning model that is trained by household travel survey data. To accomplish this objective, a random forest model coupled with interpretable machine-learning methods – that is, feature importance, feature interactions and accumulated local effects plot is proposed. This approach can be used to estimate trip purposes and to explain the decision-making process of the models. The models include the spatiotemporal features that can be extracted from both the smart card data and the geographic information data, which can be collected sustainably and cost-effectively. The proposed model achieves an 83% overall accuracy in its estimation of the validation data. The interpretation methods show that temporal features are the dominant factors in estimating the purposes of trips, and the spatial features influence the estimates mainly through cross-effects with the temporal features.

Transportation infrastructure and employment: Are all investments created equal?

This study examines the impact of different transportation infrastructure investments on employment in 11 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the United States from 1990 to 2018. Using spatial econometric techniques to analyze highway, air transport and railway infrastructure investments, this study finds that the employment effects of these investments vary widely across MSAs. Highway infrastructure is found to have positive, significant total effects on employment in most MSAs. Railway infrastructure investment has positive employment effects in MSAs with robust rail systems and high ridership. Air transport infrastructure investment results are mixed across MSAs and specification, but consistently provide small positive employment effects to landlocked Midwestern MSAs. Overall, highway infrastructure investment is found to provide the largest total effects on employment, but caution should be taken to account for spillover effects and other societal externalities related to transportation.

Assessment tensions: How climate mitigation futures are marginalized in long-term transport planning

Deep uncertainties in planning and policy-making related to climate mitigation pathways actualises the need for transport planning practices that embrace exploration and assessments of alternative future development directions. While conventional, forecast-based assessment practices are acknowledged to be of limited relevance in assessing potential trend-breaking developments, those practices have become strongly institutionalised and proven difficult to challenge. Applying a discourse perspective, this paper contributes with a practice-oriented analysis of how knowledge perspectives and established assessment practices influenced the consideration of alternative development directions and policy measures in the Swedish 12-year National Investment Plan for road and rail infrastructure 2018–2029. More specifically, the analysis regards how alternative futures and measures aimed at supporting a more ’transport efficient society’ were addressed and assessed. The analysis illuminates a strong influence of established practices over the definition of what is considered relevant knowledge, in constructing an understanding of transport infrastructure investments as insignificant to climate mitigation, and in legitimizing the marginalization of alternative development directions. In effect, the study shows how established practices may result in significant democratic consequences, when public and political discussion over transport futures and climate mitigation pathways is constrained by a narrow span of possible futures presented.

The impact of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth on BRICS

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries. The effect is examined for each country separately and also collectively by combining each country. Design/methodology/approach Ordinary least square regression method is applied to examine the effects of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth for each country. Panel data techniques such as panel least square method, panel least square fixed-effect model and panel least square random effect model are used to examine the collective impact by combining all countries in BRICS. The dynamic panel model is also incorporated for analysis in the study. Findings The results of the study are mixed. The association between infrastructure investment and development and economic growth for countries within BRICS is not robust. There is an insignificant relationship between infrastructure investment and development and economic growth in Brazil and South Africa. Energy and transportation infrastructure investment and development lead to economic growth in Russia. Telecommunication infrastructure investment and development and economic growth have a negative relationship in India, whereas there is a negative association between transport infrastructure investment and development and economic growth in China. Panel data results conclude that energy infrastructure investment and development lead to economic growth, whereas telecommunication infrastructure investment and development are significant and negatively linked with economic growth. Originality/value The study is novel as time series analysis and panel data analysis are used, taking the time span for 38 years (1980–2017) to investigate the influence of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth in BRICS Countries. Time-series regression analysis is used to test the impact for individual countries separately, whereas panel data regression analysis is used to examine the impact collectively for all countries in BRICS.

The Evolution of the Kazakhstani Silk Road Section from a Transport into a Logistics Corridor and the Economic Sustainability of Regional Development in Central Asia

Central Asian countries attract investment in transport infrastructure to rebuild the Silk Road paths and enjoy economic benefits from the participation in international trade. The Kazakhstani government approached the Russian and Chinese governments intending to join the Western Europe–Western China (WE–WC) initiative to boost the country’s regional development. The paper aims to assess how the WE–WC transport corridor affected the economic potential of linking cities and regions starting from the quality of transport infrastructure and leading to their export potential. The study’s findings showed that the Kazakhstan section of the WE–WC corridor was at an early stage of transformation from a transport into an economic corridor. While the Russia-Uzbekistan section continues to serve mainly a transit function and operate at the level of transport infrastructure, the China-Kyrgyzstan section has started evolving from the level of multimode transport corridor to the level of logistics corridor. The economic sustainability of the WE–WC linking mining and agricultural regions of Kazakhstan still comes into question and depends on the government’s further region-specific policy actions.

English

The main objective of this study is to investigate the economy-wide effect of improving road transport infrastructure. The study uses the updated and adjusted version of the 2005/2006 social accounting matrix of Ethiopia. The study applies a single country computable general equilibrium model. The simulation scenario is a reduction of trade and transport margin and an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) of activities that produce trade and transport services due to public investment in road infrastructure (and hence better access to road infrastructure). The simulation results indicate that improving road transport infrastructure reduced the purchaser and supply price of marketed commodities. This facilitates transportation of commodities to the market and stimulates production; leading to an increase in domestic production in agriculture, trade, and manufacturing sector. The simulation results also indicate that expansion of road infrastructure results in welfare improvement among rural and urban households. Furthermore, better road transport infrastructure facilitates investment flow, foreign trade and hence accelerates economic growth (GDP) of the country. Therefore, public investment in road transport infrastructure should be considered as one of the policy pillars in the design of development policy and strategies of Ethiopia. Key words: Road transport infrastructure, trade and transport margin, computable general equilibrium model, social accounting matrix, Ethiopia.

Detecting latent urban mobility structure using mobile phone data

The spatial heterogeneity of land use patterns and residents’ corresponding economic activities give rise to urban mobility’s latent structure, which is of great importance for urban planning and transport infrastructure investment but cannot be readily captured using conventional data sources. We developed a methodological framework for detecting urban mobility structure at the transportation analysis zone (TAZ) level in Beijing using mobile phone signal data. First, we derived origin–destination data at the TAZ level from mobile phone data and visualized them in ArcGIS. Next, we improved community detecting algorithms generally used in social networks by reversing distance weight, such as by dividing ODs by 1, and used the results to reveal hidden clustering features of TAZs, according ODs between them. We visualized and analyzed population density, OD spatial distribution at different times, and ratio of daytime to nighttime population using the GIS platform; all showed some spatial cluster features. We then applied a structure detection algorithm using ODs between TAZ pairs to identify the hidden structure of urban mobility extracted from phone data. For Beijing, the identified mobility structure contains 27 clusters, with those in suburban areas tending to match administrative boundaries well but those in the developed center areas showing complex distributions and matching administrative boundaries poorly. Authorities that provide mobility infrastructure can use the resulting insights into urban planning and transportation planning to inform policy decisions at the local and city levels.

Active travel and social justice: Addressing disparities and promoting health equity through a novel approach to Regional Transportation Planning.

Public health impacts of transportation policies and infrastructure investment are becoming better understood, particularly for those associated with physical activity. Yet health impacts are not routinely evaluated within the context of the development of a Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and subsequent programming and investment processes. This is particularly concerning because the spatial distribution of planned transportation infrastructure potentially has significant health equity implications for vulnerable populations at greater risk of chronic disease. This study discusses the application of the National Public Health Assessment Model (NPHAM) - a new approach that expands several scenario planning tools to include health - for the San Joaquin Council of Governments 2018 RTP. It demonstrates how quantifying health impacts at a finer spatial scale (census block groups) helps assess the extent to which RTP strategies are likely to benefit or harm health. It further enables a spatial form of health equity analysis that can help planners understand where infrastructure is most needed to meet social equity goals. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first example of a quantified, health equity analysis of transport physical activity and a health outcome - body mass index - associated with an RTP; it demonstrates significant advancement in transportation planning practice and policy.

The Impact of Urban Transportation Infrastructure on Air Quality

While previous study has confirmed significant correlation between infrastructure construction and air quality, little is known about the nature of the relationship. In this paper, we intend to fill this gap by using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model to discuss the nonlinear relationship between transportation infrastructure construction and air quality. The panel data includes 280 cities in China for the period 2000-2017. We find that the transportation infrastructure investment is positively correlated to the air quality when the GDP per capita is below RMB 7151 or the number of motor vehicle population per capita is below 37 (vehicles per 10,000 persons) where the model is in the lower regime, and that the transportation infrastructure investment is negatively correlated to the air quality when the GDP per capita is greater than RMB 7151 or the number of motor vehicle population per capita is larger than 37 (vehicles per 10,000 persons) where the model is in the upper regime. The empirical results of the three sub-samples, including eastern, western and central regions, are similar to that of the national level. Furthermore, increasing transportation infrastructure investment is conducive to improving air quality. Urban bus services, green area, population density, wind speed and rainfall are also conducive to reducing air pollution, but the role of environmental regulation is not significant. After adding the instrumental variable (urban built-up area), the conclusions are further supported. Finally, relevant policy recommendations for reducing air pollution are proposed based on the empirical results.