Transmission Of Monetary Shocks Research Articles

Why Are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy?

We propose a model of banks’ exposure to movements in interest rates and their role in the transmission of monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher interest rates allow banks to earn larger spreads on deposits. Therefore, if risk aversion is higher than one, banks’ optimal dynamic hedging strategy is to take losses when interest rates rise. This risk exposure can be achieved by a traditional maturity-mismatched balance sheet and amplifies the effects of monetary shocks on the cost of liquidity. The model can match the level, time pattern, and cross-sectional pattern of banks’ maturity mismatch. (JEL E43, E44, E51, E52, G21, G32)

One Money, Many Markets

Abstract We study heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area (EA) countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. Deploying a novel methodology to asses the degree of heterogeneity, we find it to be low in financial variables and output but significant in consumption, consumer prices, and variables related to local housing and labour markets. We show that a large proportion of the variation in the responses to monetary shocks can be accounted for by differences in some characteristics of these markets across EA member countries: the share of adjustable mortgage contracts, homeownership rates, shares of hand-to-mouth and wealthy hand-to-mouth consumers, as well as wage rigidity.

The Transmission of Monetary Shocks in a Multi-Region Economy: The Case of China

This paper constructs a sticky price Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with multi-regions. Producers from different regions would range in price rigidity, production function, the regional structures of intermediate inputs. That is, firms from each area, can get intermediates and investments from all the regions in the country following the empirical Multi-region Input-Output table in China. Different from the previous symmetry model, the model in this paper allows idiosyncratic regional dynamics to the national monetary shocks. This model is calculated by the Bayesian estimation method using the regional and aggregate China empirical data.

Pricing behavior and the role of trade openness in the transmission of monetary shocks

The empirical evidence on the role of trade openness in the monetary transmission is not conclusive: some studies find that it increases the sensitivity of output to monetary shocks, others find that it does not. Using a New Keynesian open economy model, I show that the role of trade openness in the transmission of monetary shocks can be reversed completely by the degree of exchange-rate pass-through into import prices. If the pass-through is complete, traded output increases more than nontraded output after a positive monetary shock, if the pass-through is zero, traded output increases less. Moreover, ignoring sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity leads to an incorrect assessment of the role of trade openness in the transmission of monetary shocks.

A new approach to the analysis of monetary policy transmission through bank capital

The purpose of this article is to quantify how bank capital determines the effects of monetary policy on bank lending. Additionally, we test how these effects differ during monetary contractions and expansions. Using a sample of 3,028 European banks between 1999 and 2012, we find that the reduction in loans caused by monetary restrictions is similar across banks regardless of their capital. In addition, during monetary expansions, banks increase their loan supply more as they become better capitalized. Contrary to previous studies, there are differences in the monetary policy transmission through capital only during expansionary monetary regimes. These results are relevant because previous studies have not measured how the marginal effect of monetary policy on the growth of loans varies with the value of capital. We contribute to the existing literature by using a new approach that quantifies this marginal effect, which considerably improves the interpretation of statistical results from models that include continuous variable interactions and allows a better understanding of the role of bank capital in the transmission of monetary shocks.

Pricing Behaviour and the Role of Trade Openness in the Transmission of Monetary Shocks

External demand is considered to be one of the channels of transmission of monetary policy to aggregate demand. If external demand matters in the monetary transmission, then the response of output to monetary shocks must be more pronounced in the sectors that are more open to trade and exposed to foreign competition. However, the empirical evidence is not conclusive. Using a New Keynesian open economy model, I show that the role of trade openness in the transmission of monetary shocks can be reversed completely by the degree of exchange-rate pass-through into import prices. If the pass-through is complete, traded output increases more than nontraded output after a positive monetary shock, if the pass-through is zero, traded output increases less. The lack of conclusive evidence on the role of external demand in the transmission of monetary shocks may also be explained by sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity: if prices are more rigid in the nontraded sector, then it is not possible to find a positive correlation between the response of output to monetary shocks and the degree of openness, regardless of the degree of exchange rate pass-through.

Financial markets in CEE countries and their role in transmission of euro area monetary policy shocks

This paper uses the VAR methodology to analyse stock, bond, and exchange rate markets in six Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. First, we study the influence of shocks occurring in each market on domestic economic conditions. Next, a counterfactual simulation analysis is carried out to discern the role of financial markets in the transmission of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy shocks into CEE economies. The results have implications for both present monetary policy-making and future euro adoptions, as well as for investors concerned with financial assets of CEE countries. While examining the estimated responses of domestic output and inflation to changes in stock, bond, and exchange rate prices, we draw conclusions on the relatively lower importance of the bond market and higher importance of stock and exchange rate markets in the economies. The study of transmission channels also points to stock markets as the main channel of transmission, especially in the case of transmission to the output. Transmission of monetary shocks to inflation takes place mainly through stock and exchange rate markets. There is also strong indication on considerable diversity across CEE countries taking place.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks from the US to the Euro Area

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro-area using a two-country structural VAR with no exogeneity assumption. The analysis reveals the following results. First, in response to an unexpected increase in the Federal funds rate, the euro immediately depreciates with respect to the dollar and then appreciates in line with the prediction of the uncovered interest parity condition. Second, there is evidence of a temporary positive spillover to euro-area output in the short run, while a negative effect emerges in the medium run. Third, the contribution of the trade balance channel to the transmission of monetary shocks is negligible. Finally, the degree of pass-through of the exchange rate changes onto euro-area consumer prices is incomplete and small in the short run, while it is close to zero in the medium run.

The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon

We show that an American monetary shock wields an influence, though limited, over the Lebanese output in accordance with the literature advances. However, as we are waiting for a stronger transmission of U.S. short-term rates to Lebanese short-term rates, we notice that this transmission is weak in the first year. The result can be explained by the presence of pricing-to-market. After the end of the first year, we find the traditional result where the increase in the American interest rate is transmitted integrally to the Lebanese interest rate. We recognize this phenomenon as the dollarization effect.

Evidence on the cross-country transmission of monetary shocks

The international transmission of monetary shocks between the US and Canada is explored. Focusing on real variables such as consumption, investment, employment, and the bilateral trade balance, along with measures of US and Canadian money, the empirical analysis examines the impact of a monetary shock in one country on real activity in both countries. The long-run analysis provides evidence of cointegration among the variables and suggests that money plays an important role in the equilibrium relationships between the two countries. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions reveal interesting avenues of real transmission in the short run. The short-run analysis provides strong evidence that US monetary shocks affect real activity in both the USA and Canada. The analysis also indicates that Canadian monetary disturbances affect Canadian and US real activity, and that many of these effects are similar in magnitude to the effects of US monetary shocks. The importance of the nominal exchange-rate regime is also discussed.

Haberler versus Nurkse: The Case for Floating Exchange Rates as an Alternative to Bretton Woods?

This paper examines the alternative views of fixed versus floating exchange rates presented in Gottfried Haberler's Prosperity and Depression (1937) and Ragnar Nurkse's Interwar Currency Experience (1944). It shows how Haberler presented a model of exchange rates that is an anticipation of the Mundell-Fleming approach, and demonstrated how floating rates could offer a protection against the transmission of monetary shocks. But Haberler refrained from an open advocacy of a floating rate system, and indeed continued to work with the League of Nations and with Nurkse during the War, when the League published Nurkse's study of the interwar experience, which argued that a managed fixed rate system would reduce the likelihood of speculative attacks and hot money flows.

Q de Tobin marginal et transmission des chocs financiers

Tobin's Marginal q and the Transmission of Monetary Shocks ABSTRACT. - Empirical studies of physical investment usually rely on Tobin's average q (the market value of the firm divided by the replacement cost of capital), rather than marginal q (the present value of a stream of expected marginal profits) because the latter is unobservable. We build marginal q series in four OECD countries (France, USA, Germany and Japan) from V.A.R. models for financial returns and profit rates. We find that marginal q is the sum of two components: a permanent one related only to the current profit rate and a temporary one which summarizes expectations on future financial and real returns. At last we study the effects of financial or real shocks in the V.A.R., and their transmission through marginal q to investment.