Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Research Articles

Еволюція поглядів на роль політики центрального банку: висновки для України

The effects of COVID-19 pandemic resulted in modification of the goals and instruments of central banks activities in the context of strengthening their responsibility for supporting aggregate demand, more effective financial intermediation, smooth functioning of financial markets and creating conditions for inclusive economic growth. The purpose of the article is to elaborate proposals for changing the priorities of monetary policy in an economy with emerging markets in the post-crisis economic recovery. The article criticizes the concept of money supply neutrality from the standpoint of its simplified interpretation of the impact of the interest rate on activities with different duration and complexity of the technological process, as well as its detachment from the principles of inclusive economic growth. The authors reveal the factors that reduce the effectiveness of the application of the monetary regime of inflation targeting in countries with emerging markets, which consist in the dominance of non-monetary inflation factors, high import dependence of the economy etc. Based on empirical data for 1990-2019, they prove that low inflation is not a sufficient and necessary prerequisite for achieving economic success by a country. Authors suggest that the share of components of the inflation basket in Ukraine with high non-monetary effects is 62%, which indicates the presence of high risks of failures of the monetary policy transmission mechanisms. They argue that under the Ukrainian conditions at the beginning of 2021 an increase in the central bank’s key rate will appear to be counterproductive: the access to critically needed borrowed resources will go down, economic agents will spend more of their savings, and the pace of economic recovery will slow down. The recommendations for improving the NBU policy have been devised; they consist in ensuring the flexibility of the monetary inflation targeting regime, introducing targeted refinancing instruments to increase the efficiency of the financial intermediation, developing effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, and implementing measures aimed at creating conditions for inclusive economic growth.

Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach

We investigate 1-year interest rate swaps on USD, EUR, JPY and GBP between 2005 and 2020 utilising a quantile connectedness model. This approach allows for a nuanced investigation of connectedness and adds to understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism within a highly integrated international financial system. Substantial interest rate changes (in either direction) matter for connectedness in financial markets. The results also indicate which currency drives developments depending on the direction of the change in interest rates. The full implementation and replication code — based on R, is available at: https://github.com/GabauerDavid/ConnectednessApproach.

Remittances, financial development and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Nigeria: a DSGE approach (1986–2018)

The study examines the effect of remittance inflows on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission channels in Nigeria using the New-Keynesian DSGE model. The study employs quarterly data spanning from 1986:1 to 2018:4. Four different channels are considered namely interest rate, exchange rate, credit and expectation channels. Results show that remittance inflows hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy channels. This implies the bulk of remittance inflows into the country do not pass through the financial system. Rather, the inflow is through the informal channels thereby making it difficult for the monetary authority to control the amount of inflow. Furthermore, given the impact of remittance on output gap, it shows that remittance has low persistence in the economy despite the inflow. This implies the bulk of remittance inflow is spent on consumption and not investment. Considering the effect of remittance inflow on inflation, the inflow is not inflationary. The study concludes that to better sterilize the effect of remittance inflow in the country, monetary policy authority should encourage the inflow through the financial system.

Transmission mechanism of monetary policy and response to outside shocks in 2020 by National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The article examines the features and current state of monetary policy and transmission mechanism of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The transmission mechanism is not a tool to achieve the goals set for the development of the modern economy. This mechanism is a set of interactions in economic processes through which the results of decisions or transactions in the framework of monetary policy affect the economy. In this regard, the article describes the level of inflation and its impact on the level of prices for goods and services. The situation with the use of the consumer price index to calculate inflation, calculated on the basis of the analysis of prices in the portfolio of consumer goods and services of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, is analyzed in detail. Macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, reflecting the viable direction of the monetary policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, affect the level of the consumer price index. To make decisions, the NBRK conducts research to determine inflation forecasts. Inflationary expectations make it possible to assess the possible impact on the economy. In this context, the article states that the NBRK's inflation target will be achieved through the following channels (base rate, exchange rate and money supply). The conclusion is based on the fact that, given the global pandemic around the world, one can see the NBRK's expansionary monetary policy and decisions to lower the base rate, increase the money supply and stabilize the currency.

A comparative analysis of the monetary policy transmission channels in the U.S: a wavelet-based approach

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates competing approaches to assess the effectiveness of transmission channels for the U.S. monetary policy from 1°Q 1995 to 3°Q 2019. While evaluating the competing approaches, the paper follows wavelet coherence approach providing results in time and frequency domain. The results show how money and credit channels work quite well during low volatile periods generally, whereas they suggest that these channels are less effective during periods of financial turmoil and very low interest rate. However, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited version show some effects also during periods of instability. In more detail, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited appear to be the most effective monetary policy transmission mechanisms, while the traditional banking-lending channel seems effective only in low volatile periods. Finally, the results for consumption-based channels and international trade-based channels show the least effectiveness.

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on the Armenian Economy

Whether inflation and output respond symmetrically or asymmetrically to the same size of contractionary and expansionary monetary policy shock has important policy implications. This paper shows the presence of asymmetric responses in Armenian inflation and output to positive and negative monetary policy shocks of the same size by employing econometric models. Contractionary policy decreases inflation less than expansionary policy increases it. Output reacts in the opposite way. An estimated small open economy DSGE model with sticky wages and investment adjustment costs explains about half of the asymmetry observed in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This paper finds that the main part of inflation reaction asymmetry is a result of a highly convex Phillips curve for the importers. The nonlinearities of the internal economy explain the predominant part of the asymmetry in output reaction.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN CONVENTIONAL AND SHARIA AGAINST INFLATION IN INDONESIA

This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Indonesia in controlling inflation, both in terms of sharia and conventional terms. The data used in this empirical study is time series data during 2011:1-2017:4 originating from (Bank Indonesia), Financial Services Authority (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (Kemenkue). The analysis tool used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzes the relationship between independent and dependent variables both in the short and long term. The results of this study throuht the asset prices indicate that from conventional monetary variable SBI (certifikat of bank indonesia) variables that have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Where as in the long term the variable money supply has a positive effect and variable interest rates on Bank Indonesia, bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In Islamic monetary variables, SBIS have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Islamic bond variables (Sukuk) have a negative and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. While in the long-term the variable money supply, Islamic interest rates, and Islamic bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN CONVENTIONAL AND SHARIA AGAINST INFLATION IN INDONESIA

This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Indonesia in controlling inflation, both in terms of sharia and conventional terms. The data used in this empirical study is time series data during 2011:1-2017:4 originating from (Bank Indonesia), Financial Services Authority (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (Kemenkue). The analysis tool used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzes the relationship between independent and dependent variables both in the short and long term. The results of this study throuht the asset prices indicate that from conventional monetary variable SBI (certifikat of bank indonesia) variables that have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Where as in the long term the variable money supply has a positive effect and variable interest rates on Bank Indonesia, bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In Islamic monetary variables, SBIS have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Islamic bond variables (Sukuk) have a negative and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. While in the long-term the variable money supply, Islamic interest rates, and Islamic bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation.

Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Remittances Inflows and Economic Performance in Nigeria: A Granger Causality Approach

This study empirically investigated the impact of inflation rate, exchange rate and remittances inflows on the economic performance of Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2018. The study employed econometric techniques such as the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, correlation statistics, granger causality testand the ordinary least squares multivariate regression methods to analyze the data. The study finding showed that remittances inflows are a major driver of economic activities and growth in the Nigeria clime. Exchange rate exerted a positive impact on gross domestic product per capita growth in Nigeria. Both remittances inflows and exchange rate maintained a bi-directional causality with the performance of economy of Nigeria. The study concludes that remittances inflows have a correlation with monetary policy transmission mechanisms towards enhancing the performance of the economy of Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the government needs to create investors’ friendly environment capable of encouraging migrants to channel their resources into the economy. This will help to boost economic activities, reduce unemployment rate, increases savings, with the end goal of engendering economic performance of Nigeria. To reduce the effect of Inflation in Nigeria, this study suggests that the policy monetary authority (CBN) needs to come up with a policy framework that can enhance the country’s capital stock instead of expending it.

How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China

Transforming from quantitative-based instruments to price-based instruments is the primary goal of the monetary policy transformation in emerging economies. In essence, this process is gradually replacing the interest rate channel with the credit channel from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which is mainly achieved by promoting financial development to reduce the financial friction. However, there are opposite effects of financial development on the bank lending channel; thus, the topic is controversial. Using banks’ data from 2010 to 2018, this paper studies whether and how the money market development weakens the effect of the bank lending channel in China. The result shows that the mechanism through which the money market development influences the bank lending channel is realized by affecting the substitution elasticity of the asset and liability structure of banks’ balance sheets. Different from the theoretical expectation, the effect of the money market development on the bank lending channel is nonsignificant in China but appears to be weakened when the interest rate market-oriented reform is considered. However, further research based on structural analysis demonstrates that the money market development exerts heterogeneous effects on the bank lending channel under different types of sub-markets and different characteristics of the banks considered.

Greening monetary policy

ABSTRACT While there is increasing interest in decarbonizing or greening monetary policy, central banks are keen to maintain market neutrality. However, there is evidence that the market has a bias towards carbon-intensive companies. The paper develops a method to tilt the European Central Bank’s (ECB) asset and collateral framework towards low-carbon assets. We find that a medium tilting approach reduces carbon emissions in the ECB’s corporate and bank bond portfolio by over 50%. We show that a low carbon allocation can be done without undue interference with the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Key policy insights The ECB’s asset and collateral portfolio for monetary policy operations is overweight in high carbon companies. A medium tilting approach towards low-carbon companies reduces carbon emissions by 55% in the ECB's portfolio. It also reduces the cost of capital for low carbon companies. This is an incentive for high carbon companies to reform and adopt low carbon technologies.

Heterogeneous Loans and the Effect of Monetary Interventions

The amount of credit in the economy is a heterogeneous aggregate that can be analyzed across different dimensions. Considering such dimensions provides insights into the effect of monetary policy interventions because the credit components are observed to respond differently. Several possible motivations are behind such a differential response and those relate to either demand and supply factors intrinsic to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Our objective is to unveil such a differential response across a couple of relevant dimensions and discuss the possible causes behind what observed. The analysis refers to the US and is based on a vector auto-regression estimated using Bayesian techniques and identified with a combination of sign and zero-restrictions.

Contribution of the bceao's monetary policy to price stability in mali from 1970 to 2009

This paper empirically analyses the contribution of the BCEAO's monetary policy to price stability in Mali over the period 1970–2009. In terms of methodology, we used an error correction model (ECM). In general, the results show a relative inefficiency of the BCEAO's monetary policy on price stability in Mali. In addition, an increase in the import price index leads to an increase in the general price level in the short and long term. Similarly, the general price level in Mali remains sensitive to changes in the money supply in the short run, and the effect increases significantly in the long run. Thus, an improvement in the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in Mali is essential.

Макроэкономическая политика на перепутье

The article examines macroeconomic policy options for advanced economies to respond to adverse shocks in the environment of very low interest rates and very high levels of public debt, when the scope for using conventional policy tools is limited. The standard transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the ELB conditions stops working normally, and the economy faces the “liquidity trap” effect. The deployment by central banks of unconventional monetary tools (forward guidance, quantitative easing, and negative interest rates) after global financial crisis was helpful in combatting the downturn, but carries risk of possible side effects. Large-scale purchases of financial assets lead to significant increase in central banks’ balance sheets, and this creates a threat to future financial stability and central bank independence. Negative interest rates can have detrimental effects on bank profitability and be contractionary through bank lending. There is a consensus that today fiscal policy has to play a major role in stabilizing the business cycle. But the effectiveness of conventional tools of discretional fiscal policy is uncertain because of long political lags and small spending multiplier. Existing automatic fiscal stabilizers are focused on social protection goals and not on macroeconomic stabilization. Thus, the newly proposed measures for rules-based fiscal stimulus (asymmetric semiautomatic stabilizers – tax or spending measures triggered by the crossing of some statistical threshold, e.g. a high unemployment rate) and unconventional fiscal policy (the use of consumption taxes to increase inflation expectations) have become the object of active discussion. Here lies the danger in the fusion of monetary and fiscal policy: central banks’ operations are becoming increasingly quasi-fiscal, aimed at financing budget deficit, and functions of monetary policy are proposed to assign to fiscal policy. Besides, the expansion of fiscal stimulus threatens financial stability in the future, as it leads to increase in public debt and narrows a country’s fiscal space.

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound

We propose a TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility for the unemployment rate, core inflation and the federal funds rate augmented with survey-based interest rate expectations and uncertainty and a FAVAR with a wider set of observable variables and alternative monetary policy measures in order to explore U.S. monetary policy, accounting for the zero lower bound. We find that a rise in monetary policy uncertainty increases unemployment and lowers core inflation; the effects on unemployment in particular are robust (a gradual 0.4 percentage point increase), lasting more than two years after the initial shock. Interest rate uncertainty shocks explain a significant portion of macro fluctuations, particularly after the 2007-09 global financial crisis contributing to push the unemployment rate one percentage point higher during the early phase of the subsequent recovery. Furthermore, we find that higher interest rate uncertainty makes forward guidance shocks (but also federal funds rate shocks) less effective at moving unemployment and core inflation. We also posit a theoretical model to provide the structural backbone for our empirical results, via an “option value” channel. Theory yields sizeable real effects and a muted monetary policy transmission mechanism as firms choose to postpone investment decisions in response to heightened interest rate uncertainty.

Monetary Policy in Nigeria: Investigating the Role of Private Sector Credit

This study examines the interest rate channel of monetary policy rates through private sector credits to prices. It applies an approach that is not common in monetary policy transmission mechanism in literature as many studies on transmission mechanism of monetary policy only examine statistical relationship between policy variables and target variables which may not be able to explain the pathway through which the monetary policies are transmitted. This paper uses mediation approach to assess the significance of causal path of interest rate through the bank lending channel. This paper dwelt on the transmission paths- from maximum interest rate, inter-bank call rate, treasury bill rate to prices through the private sector credits. The findings of this study lay credence to effective and significant transmission effects of interest rates (maximum lending rate, interbank lending rate and treasury bill rate) through private sector credit to prices. The paper concludes that maximum lending rate path has the highest significant transmission effect to prices. This is followed by the treasury bill rate and the inter-bank call rate respectively. The findings in this study is new in the case of Nigeria as no previous studies have applied mediation approach to the study of transmission mechanism of bank lending channel in Nigeria. Central banks should explore ways to effectively make policy towards effectively directing the monetary policy through maximum lending rate and treasury bill rates as they have the most significant paths through which the monetary policy rate is transmitted to prices.

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms

Policy-makers must be able to accurately assess the effects of their policies on the economy, especially in the period of economic instability. To do this, they need to study the mechanisms through which monetary policy affect the economic activity. The article examined theoretical approaches and ways (or channels), in which monetary policy effect aggregate demand and other economic indicators. The article showed that efficiency of the transmission mechanism and its channels are determined by the state-of-the-art of the financial system. In Russia the following channels play a significant role: interest-rate, exchange rate, bank lending channel and inflation expectation channels.

On Monetary Policy and Stock Price Relationship: Long and Short-run Dynamics

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between monetary policy and stock prices across advanced and emerging economies from January 1999 to December 2017. We also examine the impact of global monetary policy on the sample stock markets. Using the Structural Cointegrated Vector-Autoregressive model, we explore long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run dynamics of monetary policy and stock markets before and after the global financial crisis. Our results demonstrate that domestic policy rate and stock prices are often not tied together in long-term equilibrium relationships for a majority of the economies. Cross-sectional heterogeneity is observed as the relationship differs in terms of sign, magnitude and adjustment dynamics. Further, US monetary conditions are found to play an important role in influencing global output or liquidity conditions. Short-run dynamics reveal a positive impact of expansionary monetary policy shock on equity prices in those economies where transmission mechanism of monetary policy is weak. Further, we find limited response of central banks to domestic equity price shocks. The influence of US monetary policy shocks in driving equity prices is also found to be insignificant for a majority of the economies.

Монетарне регулювання та його роль у економічному зростанні держави

The article provides a comparative analysis of monetary regulation models and explores their impact on economic growth. The aim of the paper is to study models of monetary regulation and their impact on economic growth. The authors claim that monetary regulation of any country in the world should be aimed at ensuring economic growth. The study shows that the rapid development of monetary policy and economic growth theories is marked by certain contradictions, uncertainty and cross flows. Based on the analysis of the views of researchers on the impact of monetary regulation on economic growth, the authors conclude that concepts are divided according to those that characterize weak relations between these phenomena, and those that prove close correlation. The authors state that in Ukraine, in conditions of using a monetary design based on the inflation targeting regime and taking into account the importance of increasing the efficiency of using main instruments of monetary regulation, it is necessary, first of all, to ensure the consistency of monetary and fiscal policies. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies should consist of developing and implementing them in such a way that they do not contradict each other and together contribute to the achievement of the common goals of economic policy, such as sustainable economic growth and low unemployment in terms of long-term price and external stabilities. That is, the main problem of the significant influence of monetary regulation on economic growth in the country lies in restoring the effectiveness of the channels of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which depends on the choice of monetary design.

Investment Heterogeneity among Sectors and Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policies: A Case Study of China's Marine Economic Development Demonstration Zone

Chen, Y. and Cheng, Q., 2020. Investment heterogeneity among sectors and asymmetric effects of monetary policies: A case study of China's marine economic development demonstration zone. In: Liu, X. and Zhao, L. (eds.), Today's Modern Coastal Society: Technical and Sociological Aspects of Coastal Research. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 111, pp. 198–203. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.As China's economy enters the “New Normal” monetary policy, an important tool for macroeconomic regulation plays an increasingly important role in balancing supply and demand and ensuring sound and sustained economic growth. The present study divides the monetary policy transmission channels into two categories, namely, the currency channel and the credit channel. Based on the monthly statistics on China's overall economic growth and on the nation's marine economic development demonstration zones from January 2005 to December 2018, empirical approaches of VAR modeling and variance decomposition were applied to evaluate how monetary policies affect the investment decisions of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in China's marine economic development demonstration zones. The research revealed obvious asymmetry in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Further research found that the currency transmission channel has a larger impact on the investment decision-making of private enterprises than the credit channel, whereas they have practically an equal impact on the investment decision-making of state-owned enterprises. Targeted measures should be taken to support key areas and weak links in China's marine economic development, and collaborative efforts from multiple parties are needed to optimize the monetary policy transmission mechanism.