Energy System Transition Research Articles

The comparative life-cycle environmental effects of chemical feedstock change driven by energy system transition: A case study from China's ethylene glycol industry

A vital avenue through which replacing coal with shale gas in the energy system reshapes the feedstock of China's chemical manufacturing and related environmental burdens. Here, we use ethylene glycol production as an example to evaluate the environmental loads from four typical production routes—naphtha to ethylene glycol (OEG), ethane to ethylene glycol (EEG), coal-based methanol to ethylene glycol (MEG), and coal-based syngas to ethylene glycol (CEG)—by life-cycle assessment method based on global nine midpoint impacts and China's localized energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) index. The result shows that replacing the traditional coal-fed MEG and CEG capacity with ethane-fed EEG capacity reduces most environmental stresses but increases ODP and POFP burdens by 87% and 21%, respectively. Furthermore, the scenario analysis shows that feedstock change and production growth referring to the 2018 baseline increase the environmental burdens of China's ethylene glycol industry by 20–170% by 2025. This study updates the environmental-burden picture of ethylene glycol production under the dual contexts of the energy system and chemical feedstock transitions to achieve sustainable development for policymakers.

The Paris Agreement’s ratcheting mechanism needs strengthening 4-fold to keep 1.5°C alive

Neil Grant is a PhD candidate at the Grantham Institute–Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London. His research interests include energy system transitions and climate policy analysis. His PhD conducts a critique of the representation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in integrated assessment models, exploring how the narrative these models provide about CCS/CDR can be contested on multiple dimensions. Neil has an MPhil in environmental policy and an MA in physics from the University of Cambridge.

Balancing cost and justice concerns in the energy transition: comparing coal phase-out policies in Germany and the UK

ABSTRACT Europe’s two largest economies – Germany and the UK – are phasing out coal from electricity production as part of European efforts to fulfil increased climate policy ambitions that require comprehensive energy system transitions. German and UK governments varied in the ways they sought support from diverse societal interests to make the transition socially acceptable and politically feasible. Drawing on 22 expert interviews and process-tracing methods, this paper compares and explains how political and economic institutional differences influenced efforts to balance energy transition concerns, like speed and cost-effectiveness with justice for companies, workers and communities most adversely affected by the transition. We find that the increasing attention to just transition perspectives after the Paris Agreement affected the design of coal phase-out processes in different ways in the two countries. Just transition concerns were given priority by policymakers in Germany, but more so if they overlapped with the interests of incumbents. In the end, politically powerful stakeholders dominated the policy outcome. In the UK, policymakers and stakeholders gave only weak attention to just transition concerns, mainly because coal’s market position had collapsed. Coal interests did not have strong representation in the decision-making process. But we find that just transition concerns are likely to gain more attention in the UK because a more challenging transition away from gas will take place over the next two decades. Key policy insights Policymakers must balance the objective of a fast decarbonization process against two other important concerns: cost-effectiveness and a just transition. Political-economic institutional design and capacity shape the extent to which just transition concerns are given weight in coal phase-out processes. State capacity for including just transition concerns in coal phase-out processes is higher when political and economic institutions strongly mediate government-stakeholder interaction in the policy process, and broad stakeholder participation increases the political feasibility and legitimacy of policy change. In Germany, the government’s attention to just transition concerns was strong because broad stakeholder representation in the formal process, and transition assistance policies to target potential losers in the transition, became crucial to enhance the legitimacy of coal phase-out policies. In the UK, cost-effectiveness trumped just transition concerns in the coal phase-out process, but just transition issues have increasing salience and will likely become pertinent in the upcoming gas phase-out process because more jobs and key economic interests are at stake. Our findings are relevant for policymakers in countries struggling with balancing speed, cost-effectiveness and just transition concerns in similar transition processes: phasing out coal, gas, or oil from their energy system. The findings may also inform future energy transition research.

Evaluating the Impact of Public Information and Training Campaigns to Improve Energy Efficiency: Findings from the Italian Industry

Energy efficiency is a pillar for the energy system transition and for reaching the Sustainable Development Goals. In the light of the “energy efficiency first!” principle, European member states enforce policies to spread energy saving throughout the whole energy chain involving both citizens and industries. In this context, information and training campaigns arise as valuable support tools to disseminate energy efficiency and, therefore, for reducing energy consumption. Although various studies have evaluated the impact of information campaigns targeted to citizens, there is a lack of investigations that assess the impact of campaigns dedicated to industry sectors. This study discusses the results of a survey targeted at energy-intensive Italian companies, with a sample of 300 responses. Starting from the analysis of drivers that trigger the implementation of energy efficiency measures, the paper proposes an approach to evaluate the amount of energy savings linked to the Italian information and training program targeted to industries carried out by the Italian Energy Efficiency Agency. Results show that although information campaigns are not a crucial driver for companies, they are recognized as a factor that contributes to the implementation of energy efficiency practices. Findings show that roughly 1.4% of energy savings noted by interviewed companies to the Italian Energy Efficiency Agency are a direct effect of the information and training program. This outcome has significant implications, especially for decision-makers, giving evidence of the efficacy of information campaigns on industries, which have great potential for the transition to low carbon production systems.

Fully integrated CO2 mitigation strategy for an existing refinery: A case study in Colombia

The oil and gas industry is responsible for 6% of total global CO2 emissions, from exploration to downstream petrochemical production and account for another 50% when including the use of its products. Thus, this industry has a significant role in realising the target of net “zero” CO2 emissions by 2070, essential to limit global warming to 1.8 °C [2], as introduced under the Paris agreement. Currently, the interactions of an extensive set of individual and combined CO2 mitigation measures along the value chain and over time are poorly assessed. This paper aims to assess a bottom-up CO2 mitigation potential for a complex refinery, including portfolios of combined mitigation options, considering synergies, overlap, and interactions over time for more realistic insight into the costs and constraints of the mitigation portfolio. A total of 40 measures were identified, covering a wide range of technologies such as energy efficiency measures (EEM), carbon capture and storage (CCS), bio-oil co-processing, blue and green hydrogen (BH2, GH2), green electricity import, and electrification of refining processes linked to the transition of the Colombian energy systems. Five deployment pathways were assessed to achieve different specific targets: 1-base case scenario, 2-less effort, 3-maximum CO2 avoidance, 4-INDC, and 5-measures below 200 €/t CO2. Two scenarios (3 and 5) gave the highest GHG emission reduction potentials of 106% and 98% of refining process emissions, respectively. Although significant, it represent only around 13% of the life-cycle emissions when including upstream and final-use emissions of the produced fuels. Bio-oil co-processing options account for around 60% of the mitigation options portfolio, followed by CCS (23%), green electricity (7%) and green H2 (6%). The devised methodological approach in this study can also be applied to assess other energy-intensive industrial complexes and shed light on the bias for estimating CO2 mitigation potentials, especially when combining different mitigation options. This is turn is vital to define optimal transition pathways of industrial complexes.

How should water resources be allocated for shale gas development? An exploratory study in China

Water scarcity has emerged as one of the most important global challenges of the twenty-first century. With rising demand for energy, and water being a critical input in energy production, the availability of water resources has put energy sustainable production under growing strain. While unconventional natural gas (especially shale gas) is seen as an important bridge for promoting the transition of energy system from high to low carbon, water availability is a significant constraint on the development of energy resources owing to the massive quantity of water used by the hydraulic fracturing. Against this background, our study aims to optimize the allocation of regionally scarce water resources for fostering integrated economic, social, and environmental growth in shale gas development plays. In light of the uncertainty inherent in the water supply management system for shale gas development, this work employed the Interval Two-stage Stochastic Programming (ITSP) to establish an optimal allocation model for water resources between wells jointly dispatched by surface water, underground water and reused water. The model predicted water scarcity, optimal water allocation, and the total benefit of the shale gas development water supply system under various scenarios. Furthermore, when compared to the Two-stage Stochastic Programming (TSP) model results, it was found that the ITSP model's interval value may present decision makers with more ideas and options than the TSP model. In addition, since the ITSP model is oblivious to the system risk issue, it incorporated robust optimization into the original ITSP model to build the Interval Two-stage Robust Stochastic Programming (ITRSP) model. Our findings were expressed as intervals that more accurately represent the actual optimal allocation of water resources, which also provided a broader decision-making space for decision makers in managing shale gas development water supply management schemes.

Urban greenhouse gas emission peaking paths and embedded health co-benefits: A multicases comparison study in China

Cities play an important role in global greenhouse gas management. To identify and develop effective mitigation strategies for urban carbon emission management and energy system transitions, a bottom-up energy-emission-health model framework was developed. Using ten typical cities in China as cases, this study grouped the cities based on their development characteristics and then explored the potential carbon peaking paths and related health co-benefits for cities in different industrialization stages.Results showed the great health benefits for cities to reach their carbon mitigation goal and demonstrated the significant roles of energy substitution for cities to achieve their carbon peaking commitment. In 2030, the carbon peaking strategies could not only save 30 ∼ 50% energy consumption but can also avoid over 100% disability-adjusted life years compared with 2015.In addition, our results show that tradeoffs existed among the carbon reduction potential, total health co-benefits, and marginal health co-benefits. A strategy that can bring the most carbon reduction and total health co-benefits would not perform the best in marginal health co-benefits, leading to relatively low cost-effectiveness of additional carbon reductions. And such optimum choices can also dynamically change with time. Furthermore, although transportation, construction, and residential sectors contributed relatively lower total carbon reduction, they can bring great marginal health co-benefits.Our analysis highlighted cities should dynamically adjust their low carbon development trajectories according to their socioeconomic levels and specific policy objectives and shed light on the importance of promoting carbon peaking to improve air quality and public health at the city level.

Review on Deep Learning Research and Applications in Wind and Wave Energy

Wind energy and wave energy are considered to have enormous potential as renewable energy sources in the energy system to make great contributions in transitioning from fossil fuel to renewable energy. However, the uncertain, erratic, and complicated scenarios, as well as the tremendous amount of information and corresponding parameters, associated with wind and wave energy harvesting are difficult to handle. In the field of big data handing and mining, artificial intelligence plays a critical and efficient role in energy system transition, harvesting and related applications. The derivative method of deep learning and its surrounding prolongation structures are expanding more maturely in many fields of applications in the last decade. Even though both wind and wave energy have the characteristics of instability, more and more applications have implemented using these two renewable energy sources with the support of deep learning methods. This paper systematically reviews and summarizes the different models, methods and applications where the deep learning method has been applied in wind and wave energy. The accuracy and effectiveness of different methods on a similar application were compared. This paper concludes that applications supported by deep learning have enormous potential in terms of energy optimization, harvesting, management, forecasting, behavior exploration and identification.

Assessment of the Electricity System Transition towards High Share of Renewable Energy Sources in South Asian Countries

The progressive use of renewable energy sources to ensure a continuous and abundant energy supply is the significant target towards a sustainable and secure energy system. Previously, the countries that had relied on fossil fuel as a dominating energy source are now endorsing energy system transition towards renewable energy sources. In this study, a comparative assessment of the energy problems of South Asian countries is summarized. Nevertheless, there are many similarities and differences in the electricity supply system of these countries. Long-term planning for renewable energy development is suggested for a diverse population and dispersed geographical location considering all the significant challenges. However, appropriate schemes are imperative for integrating significant renewable energy sources. This study introduces a foresight plan of the electricity model according to the demand and supply balance for extensive technical analysis. The EnergyPLAN modeling tool was employed to work out a more ambitious VRE integration scenario than the official plans. The reference model was validated according to legitimate and authentic data, and then, the technically most feasible renewable energy-based alternate scenario was built. The additional grid integration cost of variable renewable energy was quantitatively investigated for comprehensive power system modeling for a real-time economic analysis. The results may be adapted and support developing more sustainable power generation serving 1787 million in South Asian countries.

How Infrastructures and Practices Shape Each Other: Aggregation, Integration and the Introduction of Gas Central Heating

We know that networked infrastructures enable forms of mobility, energy use, and flows of data, and we know that modern life depends on these arrangements. We also know that relations between infrastructures and social practices are recursive, extensive, and multiple. But what of the detail? How do infrastructures shape the many practices to which they relate, and vice versa? The research we describe was designed to address these questions head on. We discuss the arrival and normalisation of gas central heating with reference to householders’ experiences and practices and to the ambitions and decisions of utilities and city authorities. In the process, we identify forms of aggregation and of integration on which infrastructure – practice dynamics depend. In taking this approach, we demonstrate the relevance of practice theory for conceptualising and analysing ‘large’ social phenomena including transitions in energy systems and related patterns of demand.

The Value of Sector Coupling for the Development of Offshore Power Grids

Offshore grids can play key roles in the transition of energy systems toward sustainability. Although they require extensive infrastructure investments, they allow for the exploitation of additional resources and may be important in providing for part of the increasing electricity demands driven by sector coupling. This paper quantifies the socioeconomic value of offshore grids and identifies their major drivers, performing energy system optimization in a model application of the northern–central European energy system and the North Sea offshore grid towards 2050. The increasing wake loss with the sizes of hub-connected wind farms is integrated in the modeling. We find that without sector coupling no offshore grid may develop, and that the higher the level of sector coupling, the higher the value of offshore grids. Therefore, it can be strongly stated that offshore grid infrastructure development should not be discussed as a separate political topic, but seen in connection to sector coupling.

The multiplex network structure of global cobalt industry chain

During the transition of energy system to clean energy, energy security challenges shift from crude oil to critical minerals such as cobalt. Understanding the global cobalt industry chain thus has become a new challenge in the coming era of clean energy. In this study, we construct a multiplex network model and analyze the multiplex structure features of the global cobalt industry chain, which are our main innovations. Results show that (1) trade complexity in upstream network is the lowest compared with middle-stream network and downstream network; (2) most economies only participate in one or two stages of cobalt industry chain, while a few economies participate in the whole chain and own the global influences; (3) Mainland of China, USA, Germany, United Kingdom, and Spain are the systemic importance nodes for the global cobalt industry chain. These results provide a knowledge base for future studies on the cascading failure of supply crisis in the multiplex network of the global cobalt industry chain.

Transition of energy system by regulating of Power Quality for efficiency improvements

The supply of electrical energy is of importance for the value creation of most industrialized nations. Ultimately, electrical energy is able to provide the appropriate useful energy at the point of need with virtually no emissions. This aspect plays a greater role today than ever before. When using electrical energy as a clean and sustainable energy source, it is important to note that there can be significant losses in the transmission of electrical energy between the point of generation and the point of use. These transmission losses are caused, among other reasons, by line losses due to power quality deviating from the ideal value. In principle, any deviation from the nominal values of the supply voltage listed in EN 50160 (such as voltage level, frequency or harmonic distortion) leads to an increase in transmission losses. Thus, compliance with the power quality parameters is desirable from all perspectives of (economic, ecological, social) sustainability. Especially with reference to SDGs 7, 8 and 12, a supply voltage that complies with the specified parameters is important. Unfortunately, no incentives currently exist for minimizing deviations in power quality parameters and the transmission losses they cause. Goal should be to implement a transition of energy system that provides incentives to increase the transmission efficiency of electricity. One possibility for this is the unbundling of the guarantee of the power quality parameters on a separate market. Regulatory framework conditions must be adapted for sustainable improvements in energy transmission at all levels. Nevertheless, the economic viability of power quality based business models is difficult. A promising solution is to reintroduce a supplementary factor as an extension of the equation of the incentive based regulation. The vision of the business model explained in the paper is to contribute to the efficient operation of the power grid by avoiding the propagation of harmonics through the use of compensation equipment, this is a new approach that has not yet been investigated.

Review on 100% Renewable Energy System Analyses—A Bibliometric Perspective

Concerns related to climate change and global warming caused by anthropogenic activities and in particular fossil energy use have been increasing lately. Air pollution and volatile conventional fuel prices emphasize the need to transition the energy system towards very high shares of renewables. 100% renewable energy systems have been analyzed by many researchers starting from 1975. This bibliometric analysis reviews more than 600 scientific articles in which 100% renewable energy systems were surveyed. This study uses tools of bibliometric analysis, based on publication databases and data mining, together with review elements to understand the current status and trend of 100% renewable energy systems research. The focus of results is on quantitative parameters relating to number and publication types, collaborative links among authors, institutions, and countries. Collaborative networks provide the significant concentration of published papers within organizations and co-authorships globally. The results reveal that the dominant organizations and thus number of published papers are from Europe and the USA; however, almost all the established research organizations in the field of energy system analysis are not active in the field of 100% renewable energy systems analyses. The journals <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Energy</i> and <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Applied Energy</i> have the most articles, and accordingly the most citations. EnergyPLAN and LUT Energy System Transition Model have been the most active tools used to analyze 100% renewable energy systems according to numbers of articles and received citations. The topic of modeling approach indicates the term ’Energy System’ has the highest frequency due to its emergence in the articles. This research provides a holistic overview on the more than four decades of research, and it reveals dynamics within the field with a compound annual growth rate of articles of 26% for the 2010s, the trend of publications, and author growth that comprises now almost 1400 authors with articles in the field.

Environmental Consequences of Potential Strategies for China to Prepare for Natural Gas Import Disruptions.

Worldwide efforts to switch away from coal have increased the reliance on natural gas imports for countries with inadequate domestic production. In preparing for potential gas import disruptions, there have been limited attempts to quantify the environmental and human health impacts of different options and incorporate them into decision-making. Here, we analyze the air pollution, human health, carbon emissions, and water consumption impacts under a set of planning strategies to prepare for potentially fully disrupted natural gas imports in China. We find that, with China's current natural gas storage capacity, compensating for natural gas import disruptions using domestic fossil fuels (with the current average combustion technology) could lead up to 23,300 (95% CI: 22,100-24,500) excess premature deaths from air pollution, along with increased carbon emissions and aggravated water stress. Improving energy efficiency, more progressive electrification and decarbonization, cleaner fossil combustion, and expanding natural gas storage capacity can significantly reduce the number of excess premature deaths and may offer opportunities to reduce negative carbon and water impacts simultaneously. Our results highlight the importance for China to increase the domestic storage capacity in the short term, and more importantly, to promote a clean energy transition to avoid potentially substantial environmental consequences under intensifying geopolitical uncertainties in China. Therefore, mitigating potential negative environmental impacts related to insecure natural gas supply provides additional incentives for China to facilitate a clean and efficient energy system transition.

What are the potential paths for carbon capture and storage in Sweden? A multi-level assessment of historical and current developments

Carbon capture and storage (CCS), including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), could contribute to climate change mitigation strategies. However, the 2020s is not the first time that CCS is high on the agenda. This study explores the differences between the past and current developments of CCS and discusses how incumbent actors' experiences can inform the understanding of potential future energy system transitions in Sweden. For this purpose, a multi-level perspective (MLP) analysis was conducted based on documents, interviews and focus groups with key actors. Since the 2000s, increased urgency of climate change has further pushed policy makers into action. In addition, there is a new framing of CCS that underscores the potential of BECCS to provide negative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as prospects for offshore storage of CO2 in Norway and other territories. As such, this study shows that Sweden could be on a transformation pathway towards implementing CCS alongside other mitigation measures.

Optimisation of district heating production by utilising the storage capacity of a district heating network on the basis of weather forecasts

Seasons cause large variations in heating demand for buildings, and the heat is produced for district heating (DH) with several heat production plants. The network itself can be assimilated to a thermal energy storage unit and used effectively for peak reduction purposes. The heat storage balances the operation of the system, which allows smoother running of the entire energy production process. Short- and long-term storage enables the transition of current energy systems towards the next generation of low-temperature DH and sustainable multi-energy networks.In this study, an example district heating system with two 4 MW boilers, located in Kymenlaakso, Finland was studied. The use of DH production was optimised by charging the network via adjusting the DH supply water temperature instead of using the reserve power. The savings potential depends on the variations in heat demand at the interface where the reserve power would have to be introduced, the size of the network volume, and the increase in the DH supply water temperature. On the basis of weather forecasts with an increase in the water temperature of 15 K, the received savings potential of reserve power could have been 185 MWh and the reduction of emissions 40 tCO2 with renewable recycling-based wood fuels during the years 2018–2020 in the environmentally friendly case network.

Peak of SO2 Emissions Embodied in International Trade: Patterns, Drivers and Implications

International trade links countries consuming goods and services to those where products and related SO2 pollution are produced, thereby affecting national mitigation responsibilities. This study combined accounting and decomposition techniques to investigate the patterns and drivers of SO2 emissions embodied in international trade from 1995 to 2015 and quantified the contribution of each country or region on the production and consumption sides. The global embodied emissions increased at an accelerated rate before the global financial crisis and peaked at 51.3 Mt in 2008, followed by a fluctuating decline from 2008 to 2015. Spatially, the transfers of SO2 emissions tended to flow from developed countries to less developed ones, but the trend has weakened after the financial crisis. Our decomposition analysis suggests that the energy and production system transitions and the slowdown in international trade jointly accounted for the peak and decline in emissions. Our contribution analysis indicates that developing economies have contributed to decreased emissions due to their recent efforts in production technology upgrading, energy efficiency improvement and energy structure optimization. The influence of developed economies on emissions decreased due to their reduced dependency on imports. Targeted policy methods are provided from the production and consumption perspectives for developing and developed economies, respectively.

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

Five transition pathways to renewable energy futures\u2014scenarios from a Delphi study on key drivers and policy options

At many levels of society—in regions, corporations, and among citizens—awareness is increasing, and actions towards more sustainable energy are being taken. The key drivers of this transition have been climate change, the scarcity of resources, and environmental consciousness. The speed of change and its impacts on the energy system transition are still unknown. It is therefore important to anticipate probable, preferable, or avoidable future paths that will contribute to the discussion of the direction and conditions of such futures. In this article, five energy scenarios are presented for Finland until 2030. The scenarios are based on a two-round Delphi application, in which energy experts were first interviewed and then a survey phase was conducted. We used cluster analysis to construct the scenarios and arranged the responses to open-ended questions as narratives to deepen the scenarios. Based on the cluster analysis, five clusters were constructed, namely, (1) business as usual, (2) energy saving and decarbonisation, (3) climate-friendly transformation, (4) green growth, and (5) degrowth. These scenarios illustrate how varying sets of drivers of change in society, and a set of energy policy measures, are connected with energy futures. Expert information thus organised can be used to advise policymakers when designing future climate and energy policy.